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Daily Brief China: EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H, Tencent, Magic Empire Global, Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit, Guangzhou R&F Properties and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EVOC’s Privatisation Offer of HK$1.75 a Case of Third Time’s the Charm?
  • China Internet Weekly (8Aug2022): Tencent, NTES, Kuaishou, Autohome
  • Magic Empire Global: The Second Biggest Bubble in 2022
  • Magic Empire Global: More Trick than Treat
  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit IPO: Not Very Fruitful
  • EVOC (2308 HK)’s Merger By Absorption
  • Is A Corner In Magic Empire Global Underway?
  • Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Indika Energy

EVOC’s Privatisation Offer of HK$1.75 a Case of Third Time’s the Charm?

By Arun George

  • EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H (2308 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Mr Chen Zhi Lie, the ultimate controlling shareholder, at HK$1.75 per H share. 
  • The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders’ rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.  
  • The offer price is final. The offer is attractive in comparison to long-term historical share prices and multiples. We think that Mr Chen’s third privatisation attempt will likely succeed. 

China Internet Weekly (8Aug2022): Tencent, NTES, Kuaishou, Autohome

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent aims to raise shareholdings in an overseas game company and reduce shareholdings in a domestic movie producer.
  • Tencent and NetEase have not got new game licenses and a license black market has emerged in China.
  • Autohome revenue decreased in 4Q22 due to the lockdown in Shanghai.

Magic Empire Global: The Second Biggest Bubble in 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • Magic Empire Global (MEGL US) is the second biggest bubble in 2022, after AMTD Digital (HKD US). 
  • We believe there are two major reasons for MEGL’s surging share price including US retail investors’ buying frenzy post AMTD Digital and the “scarcity effect” of new Chinese IPOs.
  • Sell MEGL as it makes little sense to put any of your valuable amounts of capital into this stock. The bubble has already started to burst on MEGL. 

Magic Empire Global: More Trick than Treat

By Arun George

  • Magic Empire Global (MEGL US) shares are currently up 45x since its listing at US$4.00 per share on 5 August. Its market cap currently stands at US$3.6 billion.
  • Just like AMTD Digital (HKD US), it is hard to pinpoint the real reason for MEGL’s share price surge. MEGL’s financials are uninspiring and cannot justify the share price ramp.
  • MEGL has no unique competitive advantage which could justify it’s current large premium multiple compared to larger and better-established peers.    

Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit IPO: Not Very Fruitful

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK)  focuses on managing the entire supply chain for quality fruits grown in China, Thailand and Vietnam.
  • The company has a portfolio of 49 fruit categories and has filed for an IPO on HKEx and plans to raise proceeds of US$300m.
  • CHF’s earnings growth is slowing down while margins are trending downwards and the company’s cashflow burn is increasing

EVOC (2308 HK)’s Merger By Absorption

By David Blennerhassett

  • After shares were suspended on the 1 August, electronics play and property developer EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H (2308 HK) has announced a privatisation at HK$1.75 per H-share.
  • This Offer is by way of a Merger by Absorption, which incorporates a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition.
  • The premium to last close is just 15.13%; however, it is a 42.28% premium to the five-day closing average. This is EVOC’s third privatisation attempt in the past five years. 

Is A Corner In Magic Empire Global Underway?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Magic Empire Global (MEGL US)  priced its IPO at $4.00 per share in August. Unknown financial services company sold 5M ordinary shares to investors and raised ~$18M.
  • Return since IPO totaled a whopping ~2,825%. IPO investors are sitting on ~$570M in paper profits and own 25% of Magic Empire’s shares outstanding. 
  • Network 1 Financial Securities, an independent full-service broker-dealer based in New Jersey, led the offering. The firm specializes in investment banking services for small to mid-sized companies. 

Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Indika Energy

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Lifestyle International Holdings, Yashili International Holdings, Dongzheng Automotive Finance, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H), Shandong Weigao Orthopaedic, Shui On Land and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lifestyle International’s HK$5.00 Privatisation Bid
  • Merger Arb Mondays (08 Aug) – Yashili, Lifestyle, Link, Infomedia, Ramsay, ResApp, Alliance Aviation
  • SAIC Completes Dongzheng Stake Acquisition, Unconditional MGO
  • COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Stay Away at the Moment
  • Shandong Weigao Orthopaedic – 2022 Is the Real Test. Short-Term Performance Pressure Is Inevitable
  • Lifestyle (1212 HK): Thomas Yau’s Scheme
  • Morning Views Asia: ENN Natural Gas, Lifestyle International Holdings, Road King Infrastructure

Lifestyle International’s HK$5.00 Privatisation Bid

By Arun George

  • Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Mr Lau, the controlling shareholder and Chairman, at HK$5.00 per scheme share, a 62.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer price is final. Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). No shareholder holds a blocking stake.
  • The offer price is unattractive for long-term shareholders and below average sell-side price targets. Nevertheless, this deal likely goes through as the headcount test is not applicable.

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Aug) – Yashili, Lifestyle, Link, Infomedia, Ramsay, ResApp, Alliance Aviation

By Arun George


SAIC Completes Dongzheng Stake Acquisition, Unconditional MGO

By Arun George

  • SAIC Motor (600104 CH) completed the auction procedures for acquiring a 71.04% stake in Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK). This will trigger an unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 per H Share.
  • The offeror and Dongzheng are required to issue the composite document on or before 11 August jointly. However, an application has been made to the Executive to extend the deadline. 
  • At last close and for an end of September completion, the gross and annualised spread to the MGO price is 3.6% and 20.9%, respectively.

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Stay Away at the Moment

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • At 0.71x 12-month forward P/B multiple, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. Ltd. (H) (1138 HK) has overly discounted the earnings recovery for FY22 and FY23.
  • VLCC rate has rebounded since end-Jun but are still at unexciting US$10,000/day level only. This is below an estimated cash breakeven level of US$25,000/day for its fleet.
  • Tanker demand-supply balance looks to be at equilibrium over the next 12 months, leaving limited potential for significant surge in rate. This opens room for earnings disappointment, in our view. 

Shandong Weigao Orthopaedic – 2022 Is the Real Test. Short-Term Performance Pressure Is Inevitable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although Weigao achieved solid growth in 2021 after pandemic was under control,the real test will come in 2022. The implementation of centralized procurement will have a significant impact on performance.
  • After spinal implants are included in centralized procurement this year, all of Weigao’s three major businesses (spinal implants/trauma implants/joint implants) are within the scope. Short-term performance pressure is inevitable.
  • As a result of the pandemic/lockdown in 2022H1, we lowered our performance forecast on Weigao.   

Lifestyle (1212 HK): Thomas Yau’s Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

  • Thomas Yau, Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK)‘s controlling shareholder, is offering to take the company private by way of a Scheme at HK$5/share, a 62.3% premium to last close.  
  • Independent shareholders comprise 23.51% of shares out, therefore the blocking stake at the forthcoming Court Meeting is 2.351% of shares out. 
  • The Offer price is final. No dividends will be paid during the Offer period.

Morning Views Asia: ENN Natural Gas, Lifestyle International Holdings, Road King Infrastructure

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: SJM Holdings, Super Hi International Holding, Yashili International Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week In Event SPACE: SJM, Yashili, Cayman Headcount, ResApp, Honda Tsushin Kogyo
  • Visit to a Haidilao Restaurant in London & Listing of Super Hi International in Hong Kong
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ResApp, Honda Tsushin Kogyo, Yashili, Link Admin, Lifestyle

Last Week In Event SPACE: SJM, Yashili, Cayman Headcount, ResApp, Honda Tsushin Kogyo

By David Blennerhassett

  • Participate in SJM Holdings (880 HK)‘s Excess Application Auction, though one would need to bid for a fantastically large quantity of shares to get anything, because everyone else will
  • At a 11% gross spread to terms, and potential 4Q22 completion, Yashili(1230 HK) IS A CLEAR BUY. The world is a bit risk averse and it shows up in spreads.
  • The ‘headcount test‘ for Cayman-incorporated companies failed to move with the times and address the fact that the majority of shares of Hong Kong-listed companies were held by HKSCC Nominees.

Visit to a Haidilao Restaurant in London & Listing of Super Hi International in Hong Kong

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss our recent visit to a Haidilao restaurant in London and the listing of Super Hi International in Hong Kong. 
  • On 13 July, Haidilao (6862 HK) provided the IPO prospectus of Super Hi International for a separate listing in Hong Kong bourse.
  • By spinning off Super Hi and listing this newco in Hong Kong, Haidilao is capitalizing on its best known global brand for hot pots amid zero COVID policy in China.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ResApp, Honda Tsushin Kogyo, Yashili, Link Admin, Lifestyle

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, Lifestyle International Holdings, Agile Property Holdings, Adaro Energy and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba: Growth Avenues Are Closing Fast
  • Lifestyle Int’l (1212 HK): Thomas Yau Offer?
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 5 August 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 5 August 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 05 Aug 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 05 Aug 2022

Alibaba: Growth Avenues Are Closing Fast

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s 1QFY23 results were above consensus but it was still quite disappointing with revenue and OP declining 0.1% and 19.1% YoY respectively.
  • Withholding the disclosure of active buyers, which Alibaba was proudly speaking of in the previous quarter, is a tell-tale sign that the business is undergoing some serious trouble.
  • With expectations of 9.4% YoY OP growth in the next 3-quarters and 42% YoY OP growth in FY24, we think consensus is optimistic from 2QFY23 and bound for a correction.

Lifestyle Int’l (1212 HK): Thomas Yau Offer?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK) was suspended this morning pursuant to Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code. 
  • Thomas Lau is the largest shareholder with 74.97%, as he has been since April 2019.
  • A possible Offer ahead of a (potentially) improving retail outlook and the imminent opening of its Kai Tak project? 

Chinese Property Weekly – 5 August 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 5 August 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Weekly Wrap – 05 Aug 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Gajah Tunggal
  2. China Hongqiao
  3. Logan Property Holdings
  4. Sino-Ocean Group
  5. Softbank Group

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 05 Aug 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Gajah Tunggal
  2. China Hongqiao
  3. Logan Property Holdings
  4. Sino-Ocean Group
  5. Softbank Group

and more…


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Daily Brief China: SJM Holdings, Alibaba Group, AMTD Digital, Giant Biogene Holding, JD Health, Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit, Xiaomi Corp, Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals (Beijing), Adaro Energy, Cali Biosciences and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SJM Holdings (880 HK) Rights Issue – Capital Raise, Unappreciated, but Interesting Trading Dynamics
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Zero Growth for First Time, But Overly Sold, Buy
  • CK Group Wants to Sell Its Stake in AMTD Group
  • Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Co-Founders Have Already Cashed in US$1bn+
  • FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in Range, Couple Others Close
  • Hongjiu Fruit IPO: A Bitter Fruit
  • Xiaomi, China Unicom, and Bank Of China
  • Biocytogen (百奥赛图) Pre-IPO: Prospectus and Valuation Updates
  • Morning Views Asia: Adaro Minerals, China Hongqiao, Gajah Tunggal, Sino-Ocean Service
  • Pre-IPO Cali Biosciences – The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

SJM Holdings (880 HK) Rights Issue – Capital Raise, Unappreciated, but Interesting Trading Dynamics

By Travis Lundy

  • SJM Holdings (880 HK) announced earnings on Monday and a HK$3bn Rights Issue last night designed to inject capital into Macau gaming licensee SJM Resorts. 
  • An increase in share capital is required to pre-qualify for then tender process where the Macau Govt would allocate a 10-year gaming concession starting 1 Jan 2023. 
  • 54.7% SJM Holder/Parent Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau (STDM) had previously extended a loan to SJM designed to allow SJM to inject capital to SJM Resorts.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Zero Growth for First Time, But Overly Sold, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s revenue stopped growing for the first time on record.
  • We still believe the revenue growth rate will recover in the December quarter.
  • We believe the stock price will have at least an upside of 29% after a significant plunge.

CK Group Wants to Sell Its Stake in AMTD Group

By Douglas Kim

  • AMTD Digital’s stock price has started to sink and now there are news that the Cheung Kong (CK) Group (HK) wants to sell its stake in AMTD Group Co.
  • The discussion of the CK Group disposing its stake in AMTD Group altogether is likely to further negatively impact AMTD Digital’s share price.
  • Li Ka-Shing and his family probably want to distance themselves from all the unnecessary media attention given to AMTD Digital (HKD US) and AMTD Idea Group (AMTD US). 

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Co-Founders Have Already Cashed in US$1bn+

By Sumeet Singh

  • Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in Range, Couple Others Close

By Brian Freitas

  • Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) is a high probability deletion in September, while JD Health (6618 HK) is currently the highest ranked non-constituent stock.
  • There are a couple of other stocks that are close to the inclusion/exclusion thresholds and price changes over the next few weeks will determine if there are any more changes.
  • Short interest on JD Health (6618 HK) is high in terms of days to cover and as a percentage of free float. Covering could take the stock higher.

Hongjiu Fruit IPO: A Bitter Fruit

By Arun George

  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK), a multi-brand fruit company in China, is pre-marketing an HKEX IPO to raise US$200-300 million.
  • The fundamentals are uninspiring as it is delivering profitable growth with a heavy cash burn. The rising but tiny market share suggests a lack of sustainable competitive advantage.
  • Hongjiu Fruit aims to be the first HKEx-listed fruit distributor. Investors can likely avoid a bitter aftertaste by remaining on the sidelines.

Xiaomi, China Unicom, and Bank Of China

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The Hong Kong Indices have been much weaker than Taiwan & China due to liquidity and open capital account.
  • It is a canary for global indices and should be analyzed accordingly.
  • There is no change in views of real estate and technology sector stocks mentioned in previous updates on Hang Seng constituents.

Biocytogen (百奥赛图) Pre-IPO: Prospectus and Valuation Updates

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Biocytogen, a China-based pre-clinical research and biopharmaceutical company, will pre-market its IPO to raise USD 25m, which is a significant downsize from the previous USD 300m fundraising target.
  • In our previous note, we covered the company’s fundamentals and compared its business with its peers.
  • We will provide an update on its latest prospectus and its peer performance in this note.

Morning Views Asia: Adaro Minerals, China Hongqiao, Gajah Tunggal, Sino-Ocean Service

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Pre-IPO Cali Biosciences – The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Both the postoperative pain management and the expansive application of anesthetics in various fields would increase the market demand for ropivacaine.
  • Cali Biosciences (CALI HK)’s core product, the ropivacaine long-acting analgesic injection drug candidate CPL-01, would have to face the challenges of fierce competition, uncertain market acceptance, and negative policy impact.
  • Together with other concerns such as slow development progress, “not rich enough” pipeline and potential liquidity risk, we are conservative about Cali’s outlook at the current stage.  

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Daily Brief China: Oriental Watch, Pinduoduo, Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit, EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H, Tencent, Times China, Giant Biogene Holding, China Communications Construction and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Oriental Watch Update: June and July Improve, Cautious H1 FY23
  • Pinduoduo: Community Group Buying Is Facing Multiple Challenges
  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates
  • EVOC Subject to a Third Privatisation Attempt?
  • Tencent: Excluded from 4th Batch of Game Approvals; Domestic Game Revenue to Drop Further
  • Morning Views Asia: Bright Scholar Education, Times China, UPL Ltd, Yuexiu Property
  • Morning Views Asia: Bright Scholar Education, Times China, UPL Ltd, Yuexiu Property
  • Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth and Juicy Margins
  • China Comm Const (1800 HK): Accelerating New Contract Wins

Oriental Watch Update: June and July Improve, Cautious H1 FY23

By Sameer Taneja

  • After a disastrous April and May due to lockdowns resulting in >-50% SSSGs, the company is seeing the situation stabilize in June and July.
  • We remain cautious on H1 2023, as margins and revenue will likely decline, with gross margins likely to drop 300-400 bps and revenues down 10-15% YoY.
  • Expect a generous dividend with over a 100% payout. Since >50% of the market cap is in cash, a special dividend could also be expected. 

Pinduoduo: Community Group Buying Is Facing Multiple Challenges

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Community group buying is starting to face multiple headwinds from funding shortages to excessive price competition.
  • Even though Pinduoduo (PDD US) is yet to announce any job cuts or scaling back of operations, we think the operating environment shouldn’t be much different from competitors.
  • With QoQ revenue growth at a standstill and sales and marketing cost cutting almost fully exhausted, we think the current consensus expectations are too optimistic and bound for a correction.

Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates

By Ethan Aw

  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHJF) is a multi-brand fresh fruit distributor in China with an end-to-end supply chain. They have 1.0% market share as China’s second largest fruit distributor.
  • It appears that CHJF had benefited from a slight increase in margins of certain core fruit products. However, we continue to remain doubtful of its long-term prospects. 

EVOC Subject to a Third Privatisation Attempt?

By Arun George

  • EVOC Intelligent Technology Company Limited H (2308 HK) entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 1 August.
  • It is likely that after two failed attempts, Mr Chen Zhi Lie, the ultimate controlling shareholder, will try a third time to privatise EVOC.
  • The previous offer of HK$1.50 per H Share in 2020 marginally missed the 90% minimum acceptance condition. Expect a similar structure with a likely slightly higher offer price.  

Tencent: Excluded from 4th Batch of Game Approvals; Domestic Game Revenue to Drop Further

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • China’s gaming regulator has granted publishing licenses to 69 online games, which excludes Tencent (700 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK) again for the fourth time.
  • Though 9-month long game approval freeze was lifted in April, both Tencent and NetEase failed to make it into the approved list of more than 200 titles so far.
  • Chinese gaming companies have been seeking for overseas expansion as domestic gaming market is struggling with ban on new approvals and new restrictions.

Morning Views Asia: Bright Scholar Education, Times China, UPL Ltd, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: Bright Scholar Education, Times China, UPL Ltd, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth and Juicy Margins

By Sumeet Singh

  • Giant Biogene (GB) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Accelerating New Contract Wins

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Communications Construction (1800 HK) sealed Rmb371bn of new contract in 2Q22, or a 35.2% YoY growth, representing a sharp acceleration from just 4.9% in 1Q22. 
  • We estimate backlog is now around Rmb3.5trn and this equals to 5.2x FY21 revenue. This should have improved from 4.6x at end-FY21 and provides CCCC a secured pipeline.
  • CCCC is well positioned to gain more contracts in 2H22 as driven by the local government special purpose bonds issue. Such issue reached Rmb1.5trn, or a 166.1% growth, in Jun.

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Daily Brief China: PCCW Ltd, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Meituan, Miniso, Tencent, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, WuXi AppTec Co. Ltd., Kingsoft Cloud, Pan Brothers, Chipotle Mexican Grill and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cayman Islands: Headcount To Be Decapitated On 31 August
  • HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 1st August 2022
  • Miniso’s Word Against Short Seller Blue Orca’s Facts
  • Tencent/Netease: Increasing Pressure with Zero Approval in August Batch & Thoughts on Trading
  • China Tourism Group A/H Listing – Updates from Revised Filing and Quick Thoughts on Valuation
  • WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 2022H1 – The Concerns Behind and the Outlook
  • Kingsoft Cloud: Thoughts on HK Dual Primary Listing
  • Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers, Sino-Ocean Service, Vedanta Resources
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: Expansion of the Loyalty Program & Other Developments

Cayman Islands: Headcount To Be Decapitated On 31 August

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Companies (Amendment) Act 2021 of the Cayman Islands (Amendment Act), which will come into force on 31 August 2022, will abolish the current ‘headcount test’.
  • Those companies incorporated in the Cayman Islands, and subject to a members’ Scheme of Arrangement, were previously required to satisfy the headcount test under section 86 of the Companies Act.
  • This development clarifies previous uncertainty/ambiguity which could arise, with ‘take private’ deals of Cayman-incorporated, Hong Kong-listed companies, where a Scheme is the favoured privatisation path.

HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • HSI remains a top short bet from the C wave dual top at 22,500, the break below wedge support and now the bear triangulation support breach targets new lows.
  • A50 weakness is weighing on HK. HSI clear break down will lead the upcoming risk off cycle in Asia.
  • We like adding to a short on upticks with near resistance at 20,500. 19,700 is the pivot support to break below that will open the way to 18,200.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 1st August 2022

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website. 
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.

Miniso’s Word Against Short Seller Blue Orca’s Facts

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Blue Orca issued a damning short-seller report on Miniso (MNSO US) on the 25th of July 2022, stating that the company’s asset-light and high-margin franchise business is mostly a lie.
  • Miniso responded rather quickly but its response lacks evidence and does not do anything to contradict the facts presented by the short seller.
  • Thus, it is Miniso’s word against Blue Ocra’s facts and it is quite obvious which side investors should take.

Tencent/Netease: Increasing Pressure with Zero Approval in August Batch & Thoughts on Trading

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China just announced game approval for August batch. More games were approved in August compared to July and June.
  • Pace of China game approval continued to pick up albeit at a much slower pace than pre-tightening.
  • Both Tencent and Netease will be under increasing pressure as the duo continue to score zero in August, making it the fourth time with no games approved since resumption . 

China Tourism Group A/H Listing – Updates from Revised Filing and Quick Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) now aims to raise US$2-3bn in its H-share listing in Hong Kong.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, CDF had 92.3% market share by retail revenue in China duty-free merchandise sales in 2020.
  • In this note, we will talk about the recent updates from its revised filings and revisit valuations.

WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) 2022H1 – The Concerns Behind and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • It seems that Mr Market was not satisfactory with WuXi AppTec’s 2022H1 performance. If excluding COVID-19 projects (which are regarded as a one-time increment), the performance growth was not high.
  • Considering that the CXO preliminary bid winning has declined largely in the US, domestic CXO would not begin to gradually reflect the slowdown of newly added orders until Q4.
  • We are concerned about WuXi AppTec’s performance in 2023. As an old generation CXO, it’s hard to achieve V-shaped rebound. So, 2022 is a good time to offload the Company.

Kingsoft Cloud: Thoughts on HK Dual Primary Listing

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Kingsoft Cloud (KC US) is the largest independent cloud service provider in China in terms of revenue in 2021 and its clientele includes the likes of ByteDance and Xiaomi.
  • KC is listed in NASDAQ and has filed for a dual primary listing on HKEx and has not disclosed the amount that it plans to raise from the stock issuance.
  • We are broadly positive on the company’s growth prospects and discuss the details below.

Morning Views Asia: Pan Brothers, Sino-Ocean Service, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.: Expansion of the Loyalty Program & Other Developments

By Ishan Majumdar

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill has been in the news for an amazing rebound in its stock price after delivering a robust set of results surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of earnings.
  • The in-restaurant sales increased while digital sales were also up and the management added 51 new restaurants in 42 locations.
  • We provide the stock of Chipotle Mexican Grill with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

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Daily Brief China: SenseTime Group, Yashili International Holdings, Meituan, China Vast Industrial Urban Development, Tencent, China Three Gorges Renewables, Evergrande, Lepu Medical Technology A and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Done; Stock Connect Done; Passive Inflows Next
  • Yashili’s Pre-Condition EGM Set for 16 August
  • Meituan – Regulators Now Probing on Food Safety; Anti-Monopoly Crackdown Is Not Over Yet
  • The Cayman Islands to Remove the Headcount Test on 31 August
  • China Internet Weekly (1Aug2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, JD Logistics, MissFresh
  • China Utilities: Long China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH), Short Huaneng Power Int (600011 CH)
  • Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, China Vanke, Indika Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
  • Pre-IPO Lepu Medical Technology – Lepu Is in a Difficult Position and Turning It Around Takes Time

SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Done; Stock Connect Done; Passive Inflows Next

By Brian Freitas

  • SenseTime Group (20 HK) stock has been crushed following the lock-up expiry at the end of June with the stock now trading 40% below the IPO price.
  • The company has recently bought back stock providing some support. More importantly, SenseTime Group (20 HK) was included in Southbound Stock Connect on 29 July.
  • We expect a big increase in the free float adjustment factor (FAF) in the Hang Seng Indexes at the September rebalance that will provide some much needed passive inflows.

Yashili’s Pre-Condition EGM Set for 16 August

By Arun George

  • The approval by Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) independent shareholders of the proposed transactions at the 16 August EGM is a pre-condition to the HK$1.20 per share privatisation proposal.
  • Shareholders will pass the ordinary resolutions at the EGM so that they can vote on the attractive privatisation proposal. The key risk is timing around the satisfaction of the pre-conditions.
  • China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)’s offer remains attractive in the context of multiples and historical share prices. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 10.1%.

Meituan – Regulators Now Probing on Food Safety; Anti-Monopoly Crackdown Is Not Over Yet

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Several news media outlets reported that Meituan (3690 HK)  Ele.me and other food delivery platforms were summoned over food safety problems as well as price war among them.
  • Food delivery platforms are ordered to strictly follow food safety management responsibilities and also prevent price wars that disrupt the market order.
  • Though the anti-trust fine of RMB3.44bn was thought to be the end of an almost year long regulatory crackdown on Meituan, it seems that this is far from over.

The Cayman Islands to Remove the Headcount Test on 31 August

By Arun George

  • After a prolonged delay, the Cayman Islands legislative gazette was published on 29 July, which stated that the amended Cayman Islands Act would come into force on 31 August. 
  • The Act will remove the headcount test for schemes, eliminating a layer of uncertainty for controlling shareholders wishing to privatise listed Cayman-incorporated companies.
  • In light of this development, we look at current active privatisations, past failed privatisations and rumoured transactions which stand to gain a new lease of life from this Act.

China Internet Weekly (1Aug2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, JD Logistics, MissFresh

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent and Huawei launched beta tests for car-hailing platform almost simultaneously.
  • Alibaba begins to disconnect Ant Group to avoid implicating each other.
  • Missfresh dismissed almost all employees in its headquarters in Beijing.

China Utilities: Long China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH), Short Huaneng Power Int (600011 CH)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • A “Long China Three Gorges Renewables (600905 CH), short Huaneng Power Intl Inc-A (600011 CH)” pair trade should generate good return in China’s utilities sector given the current industry dynamics.
  • The key supporting factors are: CTGR has pure exposure to renewable, faster capacity growth and a stronger balance sheet. They should underpin better earnings quality and outlook relative to HPI.
  • CTGR trades on higher PER and P/B multiples, but these should not be hurdles as they are just reflection of more promising prospects. We expect CTGR’s YTD outperformance to continue.

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, China Vanke, Indika Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Pre-IPO Lepu Medical Technology – Lepu Is in a Difficult Position and Turning It Around Takes Time

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Lepu suffered from the negative impact of VBP on drug/medical consumables, and its share price has yet to recover. We are not optimistic about the outlook of the traditional businesses.
  • Lepu’s expansion mainly relies on continuous M&A. Whether these diversified businesses will produce synergies and how much performance they will contribute need to be tested by time and the market.
  • Excessive epitaxial expansion may not be a long-term solution. Lepu needs to focus more on endogenous growth and R&D,which is good for sustainable long-term growth. Such business transformation takes time.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, China Construction Bank H, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Mapletree, Alibaba, Australian Unity Office
  • China Banks – Stick with Quality at Attractive Valuations
  • ECM Weekly (31st Jul 2022) – Soosan, WCP, GDRs, Yancoal, Country Garden, Legend Biotech, MEP, PSMC

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mapletree, Alibaba, Australian Unity Office

By David Blennerhassett


China Banks – Stick with Quality at Attractive Valuations

By Victor Galliano

  • Chinese banks are out of favour given the China GDP growth concerns and property sector headwinds; yet we see selective opportunities in the stronger, higher return banks
  • Our core picks are unchanged, with the core holding being CCB, and also PSBC; both have healthy credit quality and coverage, double digit ROEs and are attractive on valuations
  • We remain negative on China Minsheng due to its low ROE, poor delinquency and NPL coverage, and its relatively high exposures to real estate relative to its peers

ECM Weekly (31st Jul 2022) – Soosan, WCP, GDRs, Yancoal, Country Garden, Legend Biotech, MEP, PSMC

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • There were no major IPO launches during the week. Soosan will list early next week.
  • There were a number of placements/blocks across the region, including GDR launches for Swiss listing.

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Daily Brief China: Agile Property Holdings, Cryofocus Medtech (Shanghai), Kwg Property Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chinese Property Weekly – 29 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 29 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Cryofocus Medtech (康灃生物科技) Pre-IPO: Unimpressive Fundamentals
  • Weekly Wrap – 29 Jul 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 29 Jul 2022

Chinese Property Weekly – 29 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 29 July 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Cryofocus Medtech (康灃生物科技) Pre-IPO: Unimpressive Fundamentals

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Cryofocus Medtech is a China based medical device company with a focus on cryoablation. The company is look to raise $50-100m to list in Hong Kong.
  • We take a quick look at Cryofocus’ key products, including AF cryoablation system and bladder cryoablation system.
  • We think its products are not impressive. Neither does its investor line-ups and management team impress us much.

Weekly Wrap – 29 Jul 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lifestyle International Holdings
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. Tata Motors Ltd
  4. China South City
  5. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 29 Jul 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lifestyle International Holdings
  2. Vedanta Resources
  3. Tata Motors Ltd
  4. China South City
  5. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)

and more…


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars