Event-Driven Archives | Page 33 of 187 | Smartkarma

Seemingly out of the blue, Singapore-based activist investment fund 3D Investment Partners has launched a partial tender offer at a small premium on NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP).
3DIP currently owns 2.2% and at maximum, will own 15.00% of the REIT units outstanding less treasury units. It intends to own the units for “pure investment purposes.”
“Shareholder” structure is different for J-REITs vs companies. And this J-REIT has an interesting future possibility. But…

NTT UD REIT (8956 JP): 3D’s Unsolicited Partial Tender Offer

3D has announced an unsolicited partial tender offer for NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP) at JPY131,890 per unit, a 10.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
The minimum number of units to be purchased is 115,279 (7.80% ownership ratio), and the maximum number of units to be purchased is 189,128 (12.80% ownership ratio).
The modest premium and an implied P/NAV <1x suggest a lightish offer. 3D will have to rethink terms as shares are trading through terms.

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.

Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move

Back in March of last year, Bloomberg reported,that Renaldo Santosa and his family, who collectively controlled ~75.5% of agri-play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), were considering taking Japfa private.
This was discussed in Japfa (JAP SP): Impressive Gain. But No Firm Offer. Then crickets.
The family has now pitched an Offer of S$0.62/share, by way of a Scheme, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed. That’s probably enough to get this over the line.

SLB Dev (SLB SP): Ong Family Offer By Way Of A Scheme.

Singaporean property play SLB Development (SLB SP) has announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Lian Beng (LBG SP)‘s Ong family, at S$0.23/share, a 36.1% premium to undisturbed.
Lian Beng, which was privatised by the Ong family in 2023 – see Lian Beng: Circ Out. IFA (Rightfully) Says Not Fair – holds 77.6% in SLB.
This is done. No competing offer will emerge. I don’t think this needs a bump.

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK)’s Unconditional MGO Now Open

Back on the 27 December, Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) completed two SPAs, elevating its stake in Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK) to 56.97% from 43.45%, triggering an unconditional MGO.
The Composite Doc is now out, and the Offer is open for tendering. The close of the Offer is the 18th Feb, 21 days out. Don’t expect an extension.
The IFA has declared the terms fair & reasonable. Which is probably true.

Venture Global (VG US): Excluded from Global & US Indices Despite $50B Market Cap

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Venture Global (VG US) is forecasted to fail fast-entry to S&P TMI due to insufficient fcap but is expected to be added at the March 2025 review.
Venture Global (VG US) is expected to be excluded from Global & US indices due to low fcap and public voting rights mainly caused by the company’s unlisted shares.
The probability of inclusion in Global & US indices increases exponentially with the selling of Class B shares by Venture Global Partners.

Red Hawk (RHK AU): Fortescue’s Off-Market Offer

Via an off-market offer, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)is aiming to purchase all shares of iron-ore play Red Hawk Mining (RHK AU) at A$1.05/share, a 28% premium to last close.
If Fortescue secures at least 75% of Red Hawk’s shares within seven days, the Offer Price increases to A$1.20/share, a 46% premium to last close
Fortescue’s focus is on Red Hawk’s Blacksmith iron ore project, located ~30 kilometers west of Fortescue’s own Solomon project.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com’s US$2/ADS Non-Binding Offer

On the 27th January, Dada Nexus (DADA US), a Chinese on-demand retail and delivery platform, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from JD.com (9618 HK).
JD.com, a 63.2% shareholder, is offering US$0.50/share (US$2.00/ADS), a 42% premium to last close. Should a definitive agreement be inked, this is done.
DADA has formed a committee to evaluate the proposal. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is one of timing. Trading at a 11.1% gross spread.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?
TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2025
EQD | DeepSeek’s New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100
Utilize the Killer Dataset Provided by KRX Through the Value-Up Index
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation
Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Expectations of a Deal Break with a Vote on 20 February
Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS
EQD| Lunar New Year: Do HSI, KOSPI, and FXI Follow a Pattern?
EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Looking for an Assist
Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF)

Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?

Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.

TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2025

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.
For companies with “low liquidity” the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.
Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2025.

EQD | DeepSeek’s New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

By Nico Rosti

News that DeepSeek’s latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI’s ChatGPT in most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today.
DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like Meta Platforms (META US) ), using lower cost chips and less data.
Tech companies like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let’s see where support for reversal rallies can be found.

Utilize the Killer Dataset Provided by KRX Through the Value-Up Index

The KRX is going all-in, using data transparency to clean up the Value-Up Index, rebuild trust, and keep it in the spotlight.
This sharpens predictability for June’s rebalancing, enhances market transparency, and attracts foreign investors to GICS-based indices like the KOSPI 200.
This could transform index dynamics, boosting inflows, liquidity, and global interest, creating a potential alpha opportunity.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting > 10% weekly gains.
Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.
China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Expectations of a Deal Break with a Vote on 20 February

Lifestyle China (2136 HK)’s IFA opines that Mr Thomas Lau’s HK$0.98 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 20 February.
The IFA analysis is flawed. The revised and final offer is light compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk, mainly as retail seems firmly against the offer. The 14.0% gross spread is high but justified.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS

Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a non-binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
The offer is light compared to the IPO price (US$16.00), average sell-side price targets (US$2.19) and historical trading ranges.
The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of the voting power. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal.

EQD| Lunar New Year: Do HSI, KOSPI, and FXI Follow a Pattern?

All three markets exhibited larger average returns in the 5 days leading up to Lunar New Years compared to out-of-sample data.
The pattern for the period after Lunar New Year does not show the same characteristics as prior to Lunar New Year.
The strongest returns were seen in FXI with average returns 10X out-of-sample average returns.

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Looking for an Assist

Nikkei back at the top of the price range rising 3.85%. Gains may be more limited from here without an assist from the currency.
Implied vols softened on the week from a combination of factors includes low realized volatility on the week.
Active trade in Put and Call strikes at the edge of the recent trading range.

Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF)

By Richard Howe

Aptiv PLC (APTV), an automotive technology supplier, announced on January 22, 2025, that it plans to split into two distinct companies.
Aptiv will spin-off its electrical systems business.
The RemainCo will concentrate on technological components, including sensor-to-cloud solutions and autonomous driving software.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 27

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner
Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming
China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February
Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) – Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB
PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON
SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer
CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An “Avoid” Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote
Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications
It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings
Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off

Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK) and Haitong Securities (A) (600837 CH) shares will stop trading after 5 February following the merger with Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK).
There will be small buying in Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) at the close on 5 February and there should be more buying in the A-shares and H-shares in March.
There will also be a stock added to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) to bring the number of index constituents back to 300.

Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) seeks to raise up to US$837 million, and Guming Holdings (GUM HK) seeks to raise US$300 million.
Event-Driven developments: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK).

China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February

The IFA opines that the China National Building Material (3323 HK) share buyback, which will acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares at HK$4.03, is fair and reasonable.
The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts.
The fortuitous material derating of peers has helped make the buyback attractive. Therefore, the votes should pass, and the minimum acceptance condition should be met.

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) – Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: SLB Development (SLB SP), Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK).
Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Auswide Bank (ABA AU), Pressance Corp (3254 JP).

PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

As forecast, Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM) and China Banking (CBC PM) will replace Nickel Asia (NIKL PM) and Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-44 days of ADV in the adds while selling between 17-54 days of ADV in the deletes.
The stocks have already moved a lot over the last few months and positioning has built up over that period. There could still be outperformance ahead of the passives trading.

SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer

SLB Development (SLB SP) disclosed a scheme privatisation from Lian Beng (LBG SP) at S$0.23 per share, a 36.1% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.169 (22 January).
The Ong family previously privatised Lian Beng, the parent company. The offer price, which is equal to the IPO price, is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
The scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and the offer is attractive. Expect a scheme meeting in April.

CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An “Avoid” Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote

On the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
The thrust of the buyback lifts the stake of CNBM’s parent – the CNBM Parent Concert Group – to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating a whitewash waiver.
Pre-Cons were satisfied on the 24th Jan. The independent H-class shareholders vote for the waiver is on the 19th Feb. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. Implied back-end price is well down.

Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications

IREDA has announced a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of a maximum of INR 50bn as long as the Government of India’s holding does not drop by more than 7%.
There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the QIP shares while the increase in float will bring the stock closer to inclusion in another global index.
With the stock close to index inclusion level and down 37% from its peak, there could be positioning in the stock for passive inflows.

It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings

By Nico Rosti

Apple (AAPL US) has been downtrending for the past 4 weeks, reaching deeply oversold levels on both our TIME and PRICE quantitative models. Our models are flashing a BUY signal.
On January 30th Apple (AAPL US) will release its quarterly earnings: despite the stock’s current underperformance, most analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s future.
Recently, US President’s Trump announced that Apple was planning a “massive investment” in the U.S. This was part of Trump’s initiative to accelerate major corporate investments in the country.

Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off

By Richard Howe

I had a chance to speak to CompoSecure investor relations last week about its imminent spin-off (full notes below) of Resolute Holdings.
The biggest takeaways are: 1) Resolute Holdings’ only M&A consulting client will be CompoSecure (I had initially thought it could/would focus on other clients).
2) The ultimate goal for Resolute is to be a high margin alternative asset manager. 3) Resolute is a taxable spin-off and so CMPO will not be “hyping” the spin-off given CMPO will have to pay taxes based on Resolute’s initiation valuation.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 26

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech
A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Jan 2025): AH Premia Fall Yet Again, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs… Again
Japfa (JAP SP): Santosa Family’s S$0.62 Scheme Offer
Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech

SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was again not stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was again BIG. Given the change in Tencent, remarkable even.
The story was follow-through, but SMIC and Xiaomi were also big buys. This is shaping up to be a “let’s buy what US Persons cannot” moment.
No sectors saw net selling through CCASS data five days to Weds. Top 10 activity was quite concentrated this week. Very few stray names.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Jan 2025): AH Premia Fall Yet Again, Lowest Avg Premium in 5yrs… Again

AH Premia are lower over the last few weeks of holiday and this past week of heavy SOUTHBOUND buying on telcos, banks, brokers, insurers, tech, and airlines.
The average AH Premium across all pairs is now the lowest it has been in five years.
INFO TECH and FINANCIALS saw significant H outperformance vs As this week. Most others (other than perhaps MATERIALS) were limited in their volatility. No bias by premium tranche seen.

Japfa (JAP SP): Santosa Family’s S$0.62 Scheme Offer

Japfa Ltd (JAP SP) disclosed privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from the Santosa family at S$0.62 per share, a 34.8% premium, to the undisturbed price of S$0.460.
While the offer is attractive compared to historical share price ranges, it is light compared to peer and historical multiples.
The offer has not been declared final. However, the irrevocable, the lack of a disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake and moderate retail ownership minimises the vote risk.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

JIC announced a “mid-February” start date for Shinko Electric (6967 JP)‘s Tender Offer. That’s a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.
What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long Tsuruha (3391 JP), short Welcia (3141 JP) until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.
Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)‘s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

I tally 48 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal was discussed this week: City Developments (CIT SP)‘s Offer for Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ).
Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), AVJennings (AVJ AU), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest (1381 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), and Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 25

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table
Converting Samsung Life’s Samsung Electronics Stake to Long-Term Holdings: Clearing up the Confusion
Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena’s €13.3 Billion Bid for Mediobanca: First Take

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table

In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha & Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we’ll take it.
That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It’s worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It’s good.

Converting Samsung Life’s Samsung Electronics Stake to Long-Term Holdings: Clearing up the Confusion

Samsung Life needs FSC approval for a 10-year holding plan on its Samsung Electronics stake. Without it, the whole plan could fall apart, so it’s all about regulatory green lights.
If FSC approves Samsung Life’s long-term holding, they can’t sell those shares for at least 5 years—no exit strategy for the next half-decade due to regulatory rules.
Samsung Life will convert part of its stake into long-term holdings, signaling how future buybacks and special dividends will balance in Samsung Electronics’ next shareholder return program.

Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena’s €13.3 Billion Bid for Mediobanca: First Take

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Proposed Deal Details: BMPS launched a €13.3B all-share offer for Mediobanca, offering a 5% premium per share. Post-merger, BMPS shareholders would own 40% of the combined entity.
Strategic Rationale: The merger aims to create a diversified financial powerhouse, achieving €700M in annual synergies and accelerating BMPS’s €2.9B deferred tax asset utilization for shareholder value creation.
Challenges and Risks: Insufficient premium, integration complexities, and shareholder dilution concerns cast doubt on deal success, alongside Mediobanca’s superior growth prospects and market positioning.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 24

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week
[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD
Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements
Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade
StubWorld: T’Way Air (091810 KS) Takes Off As Key Shareholder Seeks Board Spill
Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote
Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week

Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

[Quiddity Index Jan25] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Mar 25 Rebal: Multiple Adds, 4.4% 1-Way Turnover

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed semi-annually in March and September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
Below we take a look at the latest lists of potential ADDs and DELs for the Index Rebal Event in March 2025.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital’s Terms. And Also Afforded DD

On the 17th Jan, CC Capital lifted is indicative Offer for Insignia Financial (IFL AU) to A$4.60/share from A$4.30/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Limited, non-exclusive due diligence was subsequently provided.
As discussed in Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match – Or Exceed – CC Capital’s Term, I expected Bain to match CC Capital’s terms.
Today Bain did just that, tabling a NBIO at A$4.60/share. Bain was also provided with limited, non-exclusive due diligence.

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 1): MDB & BIIB in Trouble; UAL & ALNY First Replacements

By Dimitris Ioannidis

MongoDB (MDB US) and Biogen Inc (BIIB US) are the main candidates for deletion based on their current and previous-review ranking.
Ansys Inc (ANSS US) is expected to be deleted from the index by June 2025 following its $35bn acquisition by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US).
United Airlines Holdings (UAL US) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) are currently the main candidates for addition, thus the first in line to replace Ansys Inc (ANSS US).

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion

On the 17th January, Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)‘s Offer was extended to the 24th January. Shares held by the Consortium plus tendering was then 86.18%. This looked done.
The closing date of the Offer could have been pushed out to 4th Feb. However the consortium has now opted to lower the acceptance threshold to 85% from 90%.
Because of the revision, shareholders can withdraw shares tendered before the 28th January. But why would they? This is now very much done. And trading accordingly.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI All Share Semiconductors Jun25: Good Momentum for Exp ADDs Vs DELs Trade

CSI All Share Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Index represents the largest and most-liquid stocks in the Semiconductor Industry Group from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect up to six ADDs and seven DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

StubWorld: T’Way Air (091810 KS) Takes Off As Key Shareholder Seeks Board Spill

A double dose of stubs this week! T’Way Air (091810 KS)‘s second-largest shareholder is seeking to spill the board. T’way Air and T’Way Holdings (004870 KS) are up big time.
Preceding my comments on the T’way Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)’s EGM Vote Passes, Next Up, the GNF Vote

The Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) offer is conditional on the approval of the GNH/GNF shareholders. On 22 January, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) shareholders approved the offer.
The GNF vote requires approval of the scheme by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The vote remains a low risk.
The GNF vote is aided by the higher derating of peers (the median peer’s share price has declined 12.7%) compared to the decline in the implied offer value (10.4%).

Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Aedas Homes SA (AEDAS SM) stake sale: Castlelake’s stake is worth at least €897 million, with potential buyers Hines and Starwood likely to launch a mandatory public tender offer (OPA).
Strategic Appeal: 21,200-home landbank, and market leadership attract international real estate investors, highlighting Spain’s strong housing demand and rising property prices.
Possible offers, in line with past transactions, range between 10% discount to NAV to parity with it (which could be defended as “equitable price”. Long.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 23

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten
GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up
Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement
Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)
[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation
Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole

Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?

JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC.

Henlius (2696 HK): Deal Break as HKEx Merger Arb Rulebooks Are Rewritten

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) shareholders have voted against Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably cleared the threshold.
The China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) and Henlius deal breaks have rewritten the HKEx merger arb rulebook. The Henlius deal break offers several lessons.
The 27.5% share price decline since 9 January points to a well-flagged deal break. Nevertheless, precedent deal-breaks suggest that the shares remain vulnerable and could touch HK$15.

GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF’s Offer Gets Up

Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)‘s (XJF) Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack) turning unconditional was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday’s first close in light of CCASS movements.
My bet is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.
With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong’s options?

Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement

By Nico Rosti

Softbank Group (9984 JP) went up >10% on Wednesday 22nd of January, after announcing a 500B USD venture with OpenAI and Oracle to build US AI infrastructure
Based on our model reading, the stock is now overbought, but it could go higher rallying on the current frenzy
Check the QUANTCHART below to find out how high the stock could go before stalling or pulling back.

Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent

The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.

StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)

Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high.
Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

[Quiddity Index Jan25] S&P500/600 Mar25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in March 2025. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes before then.

Unpacking the Backstory of HMM’s Value-Up Disclosure Today: Dividend Arbitrage Still in Focus

HMM’s aggressive short-term return strategy is driven by KDB’s BIS issue, explaining why they acted earlier and more aggressively than expected.
HMM’s best move is boosting the 2024 div payout, keeping KDB happy by smoothing over KDB’s PR angle, and aligning with its June value-up index rebalance agenda.
The 2024 year-end dividend is conservatively expected between KRW 850-1,200 per share, totaling KRW 750 billion to 1 trillion, with the record date likely in late February or early March.

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.

Korea Zinc: Cross Shareholding Limitation System Loophole

The proxy battle at the EGM for the control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) is scheduled for 23 January.
One day prior to the EGM, Korea Zinc’s Chairman Choi is trying to capitalize on the “cross-shareholding limitation system” in order to retain control of the company.
In our view, it appears that the legal case regarding the cross shareholding limitation system is in favor of MBK/Young Poong alliance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion – It’s All Happening
Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer on the Home Stretch
Korea Zinc: An Important Legal Decision to Disallow Appointment of Directors Using Cumulative Voting
Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today
MicroStrategy (MSTR US): A Monetary Good Or Emperor’s New Clothes?
Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 25: Two Sensex Changes Could Trigger US$440mn One-Way Flows
Sanil Electric US$1.1bn Lockup Expiry – Tempting to Book 2x Gains in Six Months
Omnicom and IPG Merger of $25.6B Combined Revenue: Market Reaction and Major US Index Implications

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion – It’s All Happening

The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): JIC’s Tender Offer on the Home Stretch

Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)’s tender offer from a JIC alliance is at JPY5,920. Today’s update notes that JIC has satisfied the regulatory precondition.
The tender offer is expected to commence in mid-February. The Board will continue to recommend it because it remains attractive.
Deal fatigue (announced in December 2023) and Ibiden’s derating will nudge shareholders to accept. At the last close and for an end-of-March payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/3.9%.

Korea Zinc: An Important Legal Decision to Disallow Appointment of Directors Using Cumulative Voting

On 21 January, there was an important legal court decision to disallow the appointment of directors using the cumulative voting system at the Korea Zinc’s EGM on 23 January.
This legal decision is likely to favor MBK/Young Poong alliance in the control of Korea Zinc. The market increasingly favors the likelihood of MBK/Young Poong alliance winning this proxy battle.
Therefore, the chance of a further M&A battle has been reduced which is likely to further decline in the share price of Korea Zinc.

Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today

There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): A Monetary Good Or Emperor’s New Clothes?

Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) has a market cap of US$97.7bn, an eye-watering 115% premium to its bitcoin holding of US$45.4bn. Before taking into account debt.
Investors are effectively dolling out $2+ for a $1 investment. And that investment is fuelled by new equity (shares are up 743% yoy) and debt. Perpetual preferred shares are next.
Sceptics are not in short supply. But neither are backers, such as Capital (7%), Vanguard (6.9%), Susquehanna, Norges and other, arguably, sophisticated players. Right now, the backers are winning.

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 25: Two Sensex Changes Could Trigger US$440mn One-Way Flows

In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 Indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.
There could be two ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 Index and four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 Index.

Sanil Electric US$1.1bn Lockup Expiry – Tempting to Book 2x Gains in Six Months

By Clarence Chu

Sanil Electric (062040 KS) listed in Korea on 29th July 2024 after raising US$193m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 29th Jan 2025.
Sanil Electric is a specialized company that manufactures and sells reactors, transformers, railway vehicle parts, and switchboards. As an industrial transformer manufacturer, the company mainly manufactures power and distribution transformers.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Omnicom and IPG Merger of $25.6B Combined Revenue: Market Reaction and Major US Index Implications

By Harry Kalfas

The merger between Omnicom Group (OMC US) and Interpublic Group Of Companies (IPG US) aims to create a marketing powerhouse with $25.6 billion in revenue and $750 million in annual synergies.
Deal spread narrowed due to Omnicom’s price drop, signalling market caution over post-merger performance.
The merger’s close, expected in 2025, will impact major US indices on an intra-quarter basis.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 21

Daily Brief Event-Driven: CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square
Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked
Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: US$1.2bn Collective One-Way Flows but Momentum Is Negative
A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air
KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive
EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.
Hana Micron: Split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Unattractive Takeover Offer
Astera Labs (ALAB US): Global Index Migration and Upweight Anticipated in February and May 2025.

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.
CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.

SK Stocks’ Main Narrative: SK Telecom Exit & SK Inc Eyeing SK Square

SK Inc plans to use SK Hynix as a dividend machine, boosting payouts to ₩3 trillion, and if it absorbs SK Square, it could pocket ₩600 billion—doubling SK Telecom’s dividends.
SK Inc will likely use ₩5 trillion from the SK Telecom deal for a tender offer, boosting its stake in SK Square to 60-70% before merging to minimize dilution.
The SK Telecom deal and potential SK Square tender offer could be the main narrative driving SK Group stocks this year, making SK Square a key momentum play.

Timee US$280m Lockup Expiry – Scattered List of Financial Investors Coming Unlocked

By Clarence Chu

Timee Inc (215A JP) listed in Japan on 26th July 2024 after raising US$300m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Jan 2025.
Timee operates an on-demand staffing platform that connects part-time jobseekers with businesses in Japan.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Mar 25: US$1.2bn Collective One-Way Flows but Momentum Is Negative

NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for the NIFTY 50 index and five changes for the NIFTY 100 index.

A Hostile M&A Fight for T’Way Air

An M&A fight for T’Way Air has officially erupted as Daemyung Sono Group sent a letter to the current management requesting several management improvement measures including resignation of existing management.
Currently, T’Way Air’s largest shareholders are T’Way Holdings and Yelimdang which combined have 30.07% stake in T’Way Air. Daemyung Sono is the second largest shareholder with a 26.77% stake.
From Daemyung Sono Chairman Seo Jun-Hyeok perspective, entering the aviation industry is attractive because it can create synergy with existing hotels and resort businesses.

KOSPI Size Indices: When Active Met Passive

The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
Over halfway through the review period, we forecast 39 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 stock could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
Three potential downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, four more potential downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 13 – 17): Stocks at Inflection Point.

Familiar theme across a lot of names with prices either back to the lows of range over the last 2 months or having given back all of the stimulus gains.
Call volumes back to normal levels making up 57% of all single-stock trading. High volumes for Tencent did not repeat this weak as Tencent trading settled back to normal levels.
Materials were the strongest sector with the median stock rising just under 6%.

Hana Micron: Split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron

Hana Micron Inc (067310 KS) announced its plan to split into Hana Semiconductor Holdings and Hana Micron (a newly established company).
Existing shareholders will receive shares of the two companies in equal proportions according to the split ratio which is 32.5% for Hana Semiconductor Holdings and 67.5% for Hana Micron.
We remain negative on Hana Micron. The valuation of the company remains stretched. In addition, there are increasing concerns about the company’s new plan to split into two different companies.

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Unattractive Takeover Offer

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ) disclosed a conditional takeover offer from City Developments (CIT SP) at NZ$2.25, a 25.0% premium to the undisturbed price of NZ$1.80 (17 January).
The key condition is a 90% minimum acceptance condition, which will be an issue as the offer is materially below NTA on a historical cost and market-value-based approach.
CDL has three options to address shareholder resistance: lower the minimum acceptance threshold, increase the offer price, or continue extending the close.

Astera Labs (ALAB US): Global Index Migration and Upweight Anticipated in February and May 2025.

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Astera Labs (ALAB US) is expected to migrate from Small-cap to Standard at the February 2025 review as its price has soared ~100% since the last review.
The security’s free float is forecasted to increase from 25% to 70% at the May 2025 review due to lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders. Passive fund demand expected is ~$570m.
Astera Labs (ALAB US) can migrate from small-cap to all-world in September 2025 with a slight price increase. Probability of migration in March 2025 is small.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 20

Daily Brief Event-Driven: ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion
J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up
FSS’s Short Selling Guidelines: Breaking Down the Key Violation Cases and What They Mean
CVC Bumps the Macromill (3978) Price, Declares Final, and That’s That… Or Is It?
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Privatisation Offer
Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) – Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ
Kalyan Jewellers: Rumour-Driven Stock Slide, F&O Ban—Is There Room for Further Correction?
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Potential Changes in March
Merger Arb Mondays (20 Jan) – Canvest, Henlius, Lifestyle China, Vesync, JAMCO, Insignia, AVJennings
Weekly Update (SNRE, HHH, ANGI, MRP)

ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion

With improved liquidity, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) could be added to the HSCEI INDEX early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.
ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is a lower probability inclusion to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.
The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up

J&T Global Express (1519 HK) listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the HSCEI INDEX in September 2024.
J&T Global Express (1519 HK) could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.
J&T Global Express (1519 HK) has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.

FSS’s Short Selling Guidelines: Breaking Down the Key Violation Cases and What They Mean

The issue with borrowing agreements is that contracts with conditions set later or changeable terms don’t count, creating uncertainty on how this will play out in practice.
Many borrowing agreements depend on recall timing for ownership recognition, even within the same day, creating confusion in practice.
Repayment period limits don’t apply to internal desk-to-desk trades within the same firm. Other than those, no new updates today on reporting requirements, T+2 reporting window, or lending limits.

CVC Bumps the Macromill (3978) Price, Declares Final, and That’s That… Or Is It?

On Friday 17 January, the closing date of the CVC Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) at ¥1,150/share, the bidder announced an extension of the Tender Offer.
They also announced a bump to ¥1,250/share, and that included a comment saying they resolved not to raise the price further.
This happened during market hours, and the price jumped to just below ¥1,250/share. But one should not consider this a done deal. For reasons…

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev’s Privatisation Offer

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ) (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that City Developments (CIT SP), its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held.
City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held.
Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Jan) – Henlius, GA Pack, Lifestyle China, Jamco, Macromill, Insignia, AVJ

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
Event-Driven developments: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Jamco Corp (7408 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU).

Kalyan Jewellers: Rumour-Driven Stock Slide, F&O Ban—Is There Room for Further Correction?

By Devi Subhakesan

Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) stock has dropped 36% year-to-date and is now under an F&O ban after open interest hit threshold limits.
The rumours driving the stock decline lack financial or strategic relevance with no substantial reason for long-term investors to panic.
The stock correction has realigned Kalyan’s P/E discount to Titan, with current levels likely to stabilise and thus provide a near term support for Kalyan Jeweller’s stock price.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Potential Changes in March

With 10 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 52bn (US$600m). All forecast changes, bar one, have over 1.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
All the forecast deletes are F&O members while two adds are not. NSE Indices could revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Jan) – Canvest, Henlius, Lifestyle China, Vesync, JAMCO, Insignia, AVJennings