Event-Driven Archives | Page 49 of 188 | Smartkarma

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Rumoured KKR-Sponsored MBO

Nikkei and Bloomberg report that Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) will be privatised through a KKR-sponsored MBO at a price just below JPY9,000, a 21.8% premium to the last close.
The rumoured privatisation proposal is the culmination of a sale process initiated by 3D Investment Partners, the largest shareholder, in September 2023.
The Board will meet tomorrow to discuss the proposal. The rumoured offer represents an all-time high and a knockout bid, suggesting a done deal if a binding proposal materialises.

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 – 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.
This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell.
I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.

China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the CSI 300 Index outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.
We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.
The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the HSCEI Index, CSI 300 Index and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.

EURO STOXX 50: Exclusion by Sector

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Cap Gemini SA (CAP FP) is estimated to be excluded from the selection list in the long-run due to being pushed way above 60% coverage in the Technology sector.
Merck KGaA (MRK GR) switches between in and out of the selection list because it fluctuates close to the 60% coverage of the Health Care sector.
Nokia OYJ (NOKIA FH) has a higher probability of deletion from SX5E if Merck KGaA (MRK GR) qualifies to the selection list. Forecasted passive fund supply is ~15 ADV.

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] KKR Reportedly Plans Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Relief from Activist Pressure

Last year into early 2024, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) – partially at the prodding of 3D Investment Partners – took in 4 subs and conducted a strategic review.
In January, I explored the situation here suggesting the stock had run, FujiSoft needed to liquidate more assets, but a PE firm would look at a valuation of ¥600bn.
Last night, the Nikkei reported that US PE Firm KKR planned to take Fuji Soft private with a TOB valued at ¥600bn. Limit up will take us to ¥560bn+.

MSC Aug 24 Rebalance: South Africa Post-Election Tailwind? MRP, ARI Potential Adds

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

MSC indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Friday the 30th of August. Constituent changes will be announced after the close next week Monday.
In this note we flag Mr Price Group Ltd (MRP SJ) & African Rainbow Minerals (ARI SJ) as possible additions to the MSC SA index.
Since our last discount update on the 22nd of July, Prosus has underperformed Naspers. The discount has widened by 1.7 percentage points to 39.6%.

CR Sanjiu (000999.CH) To Acquire Tasly Pharma (600535.CH) – SOEs Have High Enthusiasm for TCM Assets

China Resources Sanjiu plans to acquire 28% stake in Tasly for RMB6.21 billion at RMB14.85/share. The acquisition of Tasly is in line with the strategic direction of 14th Five-Year Plan.
China Resources is positioned as a leading enterprise in modern industrial chain of TCM by the SASAC.Due to policy support, TCM assets are more likely to be favored by SOEs.
The deal is positive for Tasly, whose valuation has room to rise further, but the market seems “skeptical” about China Resources Sanjiu’s decision, leading to a lackluster share price reaction.

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Aug 07

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Thinking About The Toyota Tender Offer Buyback and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Thinking About The Toyota Tender Offer Buyback
Go-To Arbs Amid Market Carnage
Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Market Consultation to Avoid Reverse Turnover (NVDA/AAPL)
Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800
Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled
How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed During Market Turmoil?
GA Pack (468 HK): Stalemate Broken as Management Considers a Possible Counteroffer
The Unusual Flow Trading Development Caused by SK Innovation’s Appraisal Rights Premium
GAPack (468 HK)’s Co-Founders (Almost) Walk The Walk
Sapporo Holdings: Investor Activism Sparks Short-Term Gains, Tax Reforms Ensure Long-Term Success

Thinking About The Toyota Tender Offer Buyback

In May when shares were trading near ¥3,500-3,600, Toyota announced a ¥1trln buyback. When shares fell, they announced a Tender Offer Buyback at a large discount (¥2,781/share).
Subsequently, the shares fell very sharply on Thursday 1 August, then again Friday and yesterday. That put shares WELL below the Tender Offer Price. That creates possible opportunity.
This insight discusses modalities (talk to your advisor for specific advice/info) who might do what and why. It sets parameters. But I think Toyota is cheap here.

Go-To Arbs Amid Market Carnage

As global market roil, clean M&A deals come into focus.
This insight briefly summarises those transactions in Asia/Oceania which are expected to comfortably complete, irrespective of the background noise.
Standout deals include APM Human Services (APM AU), Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK), Alps Logistics (9055 JP), I’Rom Group (2372 JP), and Arvida (ARV NZ).

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Market Consultation to Avoid Reverse Turnover (NVDA/AAPL)

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Apple (AAPL US) switched positions in June setting off huge flows. Those flows could reverse in September if the current index methodology is used.
To avoid frequent reverse turnover, S&P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology. We believe feedback will be positive and the proposals will be approved.
Apple (AAPL US) will have inflows in September while there will be outflows from Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US).

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800

Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) has increased the Fancl Corp (4921 JP) tender offer price by 4.1% to JPY2,800 and extended the offer period to 28 August. The price is final.
Kirin tried to get the required acceptances by refusing to bump and extending the offer period. However, these tactics failed, as the shares continued to trade above terms.
The Board twice asked Kirin to raise its offer higher than JPY2,800, but eventually recommended the revised offer. Nevertheless, the bump should be sufficient for Kirin to succeed.

Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios.
Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.
Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled.

How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed During Market Turmoil?

The market turmoil over the last few trading sessions has not been kind to a simple index rebalance strategy of buying the forecast adds and selling the forecast deletes.
The overall returns and stock specific returns indicate that trades are more crowded in some indices as compared to others and traders should consider that when position sizing.
Anecdotally, periods of negative returns are followed by periods of strong returns for the strategy as weak hands are shaken out of their positions.

GA Pack (468 HK): Stalemate Broken as Management Considers a Possible Counteroffer

Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) disclosed that Mr Bi Hua Jeff (CEO) and Mr Hong Gang (co-founder) are contemplating a possible voluntary conditional offer. The terms and conditions were not disclosed.
Due to the recent AGM protest votes, management needed to provide a credible alternative to shareholders to ensure that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)’s offer failed.
Shandong Xinjufeng’s likely game plan is to wait for a binding counteroffer, focus on satisfying the preconditions, and requisition an EGM again to get Board representation.

The Unusual Flow Trading Development Caused by SK Innovation’s Appraisal Rights Premium

Exceeding the ceiling doesn’t cancel the merger; SK Innovation can still proceed. With their decision confirmed, focus should shift to appraisal rights flows rather than cancellation risk.
We should focus on flow trading given the notable exercise size and potential for unprecedented market activity if institutions, including the NPS, exercise their rights due to the juicy premium.
The large exercise size and SK Innovation’s KOSPI large-cap status may create unique flow trading opportunities, with potential repurchases after new shares list.

GAPack (468 HK)’s Co-Founders (Almost) Walk The Walk

To say Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)‘s management and Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) don’t get along is an understatement. GAPack has labelled XJF’s pre-conditional Offer hostile and unwelcome.
Last night (6th August), co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. No price was mentioned. Collectively they hold 14.72% of shares out compared to XJF’s 26.8%.
A firm Offer (and price) would have been welcome, and this probably reflects on-going funding negotiations. But the announcement will give minorities pause if/when tendering into XJF’s Offer.

Sapporo Holdings: Investor Activism Sparks Short-Term Gains, Tax Reforms Ensure Long-Term Success

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)‘s strategic position in the domestic market, coupled with untapped potential in international markets, makes the company an interesting prospect for the long-term.
3D Investment Partners’ July 2024 letter praising Sapporo’s intention to divest its real estate business has reignited investor interest in Sapporo as a play focusing on Japan’s investor activism.
Therefore, Sapporo seems interesting both in the short term and long term, as we think shares could break out to a new high with trading volumes showing signs of improvement.

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Aug 06

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Itochu (8001 JP) Launches Lowball TOB for Descente (8114) – Buying China on the Cheap and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Itochu (8001 JP) Launches Lowball TOB for Descente (8114) – Buying China on the Cheap
Kokusai Electric (6525): Global Index Inclusion Highly Dependent on Free Float
Itochu Buying Out Sub CI Takiron (4215) Below Book – Too Cheap And Weak Process/Transparency
Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Pre-Conditional Offer
China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Things Are Still Manageable
Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Reversing the Huge Flows from June
C.I.TAKIRON (4215 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Tender Offer at JPY870
Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI 200 in December 2024 Amid Market Downturn
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (August 2024)
EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Smashed The Tails Barrier, Reversal Due Soon

Itochu (8001 JP) Launches Lowball TOB for Descente (8114) – Buying China on the Cheap

Today, Itochu Corp (8001 JP) announced it would launch a Tender Offer when approvals were received, to buy out minorities in Descente Ltd (8114 JP) at ¥4,350/share.
Itochu was buying at that price or higher, in the market, in October 2023. Earnings and book are up since then. Outlook for the Descente China Holdings affiliate? Great.
The valuation transparency is disappointing. Activists would have 3mos or so to push for more. But with friendly holders, they get very close to the minimum anyway.

Kokusai Electric (6525): Global Index Inclusion Highly Dependent on Free Float

By Dimitris Ioannidis

IPO lock-up expiry of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 35% and fcap of $2.9bn for the August 2024 review.
Secondary offering of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 60-65% and latest fcap of $3.4bn- $3.7bn for the November 2024 review.
Inclusion will be determined based on fcap against the fcap threshold. Fcap uncertainty for November is largely driven by stock price fluctuations and the Greenshoe Option.

Itochu Buying Out Sub CI Takiron (4215) Below Book – Too Cheap And Weak Process/Transparency

Itochu Corp (8001 JP) today announced another TOB to buy out minorities of a sub other than Descente Ltd (8114 JP). C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP) at ¥870. A takeunder.
The stock was up a lot today I assume on news I didn’t see. Slightly lower than the close. Low EV/EBITDA multiple. Lacking transparency.
The Board is OK selling at below book, but if one takes out net cash, securities, net receivables, and inventory/materials of one quarter of sales, the rest is 0.54x book.

Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Pre-Conditional Offer

Descente Ltd (8114 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Itochu Corp (8001 JP) at JPY4,350, 16.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The pre-condition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and China. The offer is anticipated to commence in early November. In January 2019, Itochu completed a hostile partial offer.
While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the price is light.

China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Things Are Still Manageable

What disappoints investors is that privatization progress is slower-than-expected. Since approval is in “advanced stage”, August update is eye-catching. Investors may need more patience with this type of SOE deal.
The key to the success of this privatization lies in whether CNPGC is willing to abide by its commitments. If yes, CNPGC will take all measures to solve the problems.
According to our valuation calculation, even without this privatization, HK$3.5/share is fair for China TCM. Reasonable share price is above HK$5/share. Don’t forget, the privatization is still on the agenda.

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Reversing the Huge Flows from June

The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$65bn.
The recent drop in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) has taken its market cap and free float market cap lower than Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) and Apple (AAPL US).
If that continues to be the case on 13 September, there will be huge outflows for NVIDIA (NVDA) and huge inflows for Apple (AAPL) at the close on 20 September.

C.I.TAKIRON (4215 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Tender Offer at JPY870

C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Itochu Corp (8001 JP) at JPY870, a 9.7% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY793 (2 August).
The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 10.97% ownership ratio. The tender offer runs from 6 August to 18 September, with payment from 26 September.
While attractive vs peer multiples, the offer is light due to a skinny takeover premium, an implied P/B below 1x, and 9% below the mid-point IFA DCF valuation.

Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI 200 in December 2024 Amid Market Downturn

We discuss the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI 200 in December 2024 amid big declines in share prices of many stocks in KOSPI in the past week.
The eight potential additions are up on average 8.5% from end of 2023. The eight potential deletion candidates are down on average 39.1% YTD.
The average market cap of the seven potential additions is 1.9 trillion won. The average market cap of the seven potential deletion candidates is 0.6 trillion won.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (August 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
SUNWELS Co (9229 JP) and Macbee Planet (7095 JP) moved to the Prime market in July 2024 which means there will TOPIX Inclusions at the end of August 2024.
Our pre-event pick CELSYS (3663 JP) has seen its price fall by more than 20% during the recent market sell-off and it is close to a key share price threshold.

EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Smashed The Tails Barrier, Reversal Due Soon

By Nico Rosti

The S&P 500 INDEX is massively oversold WEEKLY (and DAILY).
Our models indicate the index is trading in the “Tails” area of the LONG model, a reversal is probably imminent, but forecasts in this price area are less reliable.
Accumulation can start from Monday’s low prices (around 5100), the reversal will probably come next week.

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Aug 05

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Update: Shinko Electric (6967) Shorter-Dated and Break Risk Small but GAP RISK Now Much Higher and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Update: Shinko Electric (6967) Shorter-Dated and Break Risk Small but GAP RISK Now Much Higher
Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP): Selloff Provides Entry for Potential Index Inclusion
China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed’s Trouble
Local Market Observations on Timing Samsung Electronics 1P Discount Narrowing
Merger Arb Mondays (05 Aug) – Henlius, Asia Cement, Canvest, GA Pack, CPMC, A8, Fancl
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Deletion & Positioning
Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Aug24)
CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update- Due to Risk Behind ORG’s Offer, Baosteel Is a Wiser Bet
EQD / NSE Vol Update / Coffee Boost for Sleepy Vol Mkts as Risk Sentiment Sours into the Weekend

Update: Shinko Electric (6967) Shorter-Dated and Break Risk Small but GAP RISK Now Much Higher

When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
Nearly 7mos ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco’d a buy. Then 5mos ago, recommended taking profits.
Ibiden has now underperformed Shinko by 25+% in 2-plus weeks. GAP RISK is higher but this is a short-timer. HUGE yield to “expected” start date, so everyone assumes a delay.

Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP): Selloff Provides Entry for Potential Index Inclusion

Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP) is a potential inclusion to a global index at the August rebalance. If added, passive trackers will need to buy over 6x ADV.
Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP) has traded lower on risk-off sentiment and further downside provides an entry point that could pay off if the stock is added to the index.
Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP) has outperformed its peers but trades at similar valuations to some stocks. A long/short trade could protect the downside.

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed’s Trouble

TCM formula granules VBP would cause some disturbance to related enterprises’ performance, but the substitution of TCM formula granules for TCM decoction pieces is a trend, indicating long-term optimistic growth.
Keymed’s CM310 would probably miss the NRDL negotiation this year, which will put the Company in passive situation. Based on competitive landscape, we are worried about the performance of Keymed.
Unsatisfactory performance of Taiji’s shares is related to concerns on China TCM’s privatization/24H1 results.However, even without the integration with China TCM, Taiji’s market value should be more than RMB20 billion.

Local Market Observations on Timing Samsung Electronics 1P Discount Narrowing

Local traders see interest rate cuts and value-up disclosures as key for timing Samsung Electronics 1P discount narrowing.
Samsung’s only realistic value-up goal beyond 50% FCF return is improving ROE, likely through a pref-skewed buyback or cancellation program.
If Samsung announces a value-up plan during the Bank of Korea’s rate cuts, local traders expect the 1P discount to reverse, targeting October-November for position entry.

Merger Arb Mondays (05 Aug) – Henlius, Asia Cement, Canvest, GA Pack, CPMC, A8, Fancl

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Asia Cement China (743 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK).
Lowest spreads: Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Second Chance Properties (SCE SP), Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP), Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP), Alps Logistics (9055 JP).

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Nuvoton Deletion & Positioning

Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) should be deleted from the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in September and that will trigger selling of over 4 days of ADV.
Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) has underperformed most of its peers since the start of the calendar year and shorts have started to increase in the stock.
Positioning appears light and the recent deletion from an index has increased the real float of the stock. Recent semiconductor weakness could further pressure the stock.

Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Aug24)

July saw 825 new Corporate Governance Reports filed and 8 new “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” policies filed. June saw 1,673 and 5, respectively. That’s 2500 cos.
We created a tool show every report, provide links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.
We hope this tool will help. It is designed to be a shelf reference. We update the tool once a month, a couple of weeks ahead of the TSE.

CPMC Holdings (906.HK) Privatization Update- Due to Risk Behind ORG’s Offer, Baosteel Is a Wiser Bet

Baosteel’s choice to maintain its original Offer may partly reflect its “confidence” in the deal. If investors bet that Huarui Offer will succeed, they need to bear some risks.
If investors choose to arbitrage at HK$7.21/share, annualized return is 9% assuming privatization would be completed in mid-Jan 2025.Such return may not be attractive considering the uncertainties behind the deal.
If investors are optimistic about Baosteel’s final acquisition of CPMC, they can consider buying Baosteel shares, as Baosteel will become the new industry leader, with greater upside potential for valuation.

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Coffee Boost for Sleepy Vol Mkts as Risk Sentiment Sours into the Weekend

By Sankalp Singh

Implied Volatilities (IVs) fell post-FOMC, but reversed course as market sentiment worsened late -week. IV-jump expected as Indian markets catch up to Friday’s U.S. price action
Vol-Regime Model still in a “High & Down” vol state. Will switch if large IV change on the open. Short Vega & Risk-Reversal positions will need to be reevaluated.
Low PCR, OI call bias & Skew compression: All point to unguarded downside in Nifty50. Next stop 24000.

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Aug 04

Daily Brief Event-Driven: (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Ansarada and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Ansarada, Southern Cross Gold, A8 New Media, CPMC, Mandala Multifinance, Fancl
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024); ETFs Get Sold; Tencent, SOEs, Utilities Bought
A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 Aug 2024): Policy Commentary Supports Consumers, AH Premia Drifting Wider
Asia Cement China (743 HK): Scheme Vote on 26 August Has a High Deal Break Risk
Asia Cement (743 HK): 26th August Vote. Shareholders Should Reject Terms
Last Week in Event SPACE: Rio Tinto, Ryohin Keikaku/Fast Retailing, WH Group, ThaiBev/F&N, PCCW
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024): Small Net Positive Week But…

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Ansarada, Southern Cross Gold, A8 New Media, CPMC, Mandala Multifinance, Fancl

I tally 45 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Quite week – no new deals were discussed this week on Smartkarma ….
Key updates took place on Ansarada Group (AND AU), Southern Cross Gold (SXG AU), A8 New Media (800 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Mandala Multifinance (MFIN IJ), and Fancl (4921 JP).

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024); ETFs Get Sold; Tencent, SOEs, Utilities Bought

SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.2bn this week (now 26wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes.
I’ve thought national team was buying banks for months. They were gone for a couple of weeks. Feels like they are back.
There were three ETFs in the top five SOUTHBOUND sells this past week, reversing last week. Energy, Utilities, Telecoms bought.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 Aug 2024): Policy Commentary Supports Consumers, AH Premia Drifting Wider

The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND inflow strong. SOEs, Tencent, and Xiaomi leading. NORTHBOUND down four of five days this week, but net inflows on the week. Consumer discretionary bad.
Hs underperformed As again. 20d AH Premia performance is at the top of its multi-year range. I’d expect AH Premia to decline the next couple of weeks.

Asia Cement China (743 HK): Scheme Vote on 26 August Has a High Deal Break Risk

Asia Cement China (743 HK)’s IFA opines that Asia Cement (1102 TT)’s HK$3.22 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The scheme vote is on 26 August.
The IFA valiantly justifies that an offer materially below net cash is fair and reasonable. The crux of the justification lies in the fortuitous disclosure of material capex requirements.
While no shareholder holds the 10% blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates, retail opposition and unconvincing IFA report suggest a high chance of a deal break.

Asia Cement (743 HK): 26th August Vote. Shareholders Should Reject Terms

Back on the 5th June, Chinese cement play Asia Cement China (743 HK) announced a rubbish HK$3.22/share Offer from its parent Asia Cement (1102 TT).
This best & final cash Offer was a ~ 45% premium to undisturbed, and a 37% discount to FY23’s net cash. It’s a 39% discount to 1H24’s net cash.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a 26th August independent shareholder vote. And payment (if it were to occur) on 20th September. The IFA (unsurprisingly) says fair and reasonable.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Rio Tinto, Ryohin Keikaku/Fast Retailing, WH Group, ThaiBev/F&N, PCCW

At a time when the LSE has dumbed down the checks and balances for listed companies, now may be the right time to consider collapsing Rio Tinto (RIO AU)‘s DLC.
Re: Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal, long Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) vs. Fast Retailing (9983 JP), but this may not last. It has worked very well.
Unless we see a significant (and sustainable) reversal in WH Group (288 HK)‘s US/Mexican ops in the interim results, now hardly appears the opportune time for a Smithfield IPO.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024): Small Net Positive Week But…

The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 3.2bn of A-shares. Wednesday was a BIG buy day. Every other day was a net sell.
HK and Mainland large caps generally performed equally, down but much better than the rest of the world, but Hs in H/A pairs underperformed.

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Aug 03

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: PCCW’s Premium To NAV Is Unsustainable and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

StubWorld: PCCW’s Premium To NAV Is Unsustainable
Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System

StubWorld: PCCW’s Premium To NAV Is Unsustainable

Continued stub losses are one thing. Ballooning PCCW Ltd (8 HK) parent debt is another.
Preceding my comments on PCCW and HKT Ltd (6823 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
.These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System

One of the key takeaways of the Corporate Value Up disclosures on the KIND system is that it could potentially lead to alpha generating investing opportunities.
Since the last week of May, there have been 7 companies that provided specific Corporate Value up programs; (4 major financials) have outperformed KOSPI.
Companies such as KB Financial and Shinhan Financial that provide more meaningful Corporate Value Up action plans are likely to have greater impact on their share prices.

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Aug 02

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [JAPAN ACTIVISM] – Murakami Group Bigger and Bolder on Exedy – STILL Room to Run and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] – Murakami Group Bigger and Bolder on Exedy – STILL Room to Run
Pacific Metals (5541 JP): Here We Go Again Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder
Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Dec 24: Up to 5 ADDs & 6 DELs Possible
Japan – Passive Selling in a Few Weeks & Shorts Build Up

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] – Murakami Group Bigger and Bolder on Exedy – STILL Room to Run

In late May, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced it would sell its 37% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP). The market dropped. But that was an opportunity.
There was an announcement, a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, the offering, and more buyback to come. On 30 May, I said “Buy the deal, buy in the market. It’s cheap and vulnerable.”
Exedy is up 21% since. On 17 June, activist Murakami-san’s group went over 5%. Then they bought more. Now they have 15%. Or more. Still cheap. Still vulnerable.

Pacific Metals (5541 JP): Here We Go Again Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami’s entity, City Index Eleventh, and daughter reported a 5.40% stake in Pacific Metals (5541 JP). The shares were purchased from 27 May to 25 July.
Murakami’s average buy-in price is JPY1,259 per share, an 11.1% discount to the last close price. Murakami has been a substantial shareholder twice before.
Murakami’s previous dealings in Pacific Metals were a pump-and-dump where he built up around 8% stake, only to sell into the share price pop subsequently. Expect more of the same.

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Dec 24: Up to 5 ADDs & 6 DELs Possible

KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2024.
We expect up to five ADDs and six DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the December 2024 index rebal event based on the latest available data.

Japan – Passive Selling in a Few Weeks & Shorts Build Up

Up to 12 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.
The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names.

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Aug 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions – Fastie Capped and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions – Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s
True Wind Raises Partial Offer for Sun Corp Further, Leaving an Interesting Back End
Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed
Sun Corporation (6736 JP): Third’s Time a Charm for True Wind’s Final Offer
Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The “Unification”
KRX’s September Major Rebalancing Events: Why We Should Focus on KRX BBIG
Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; INTUCH-GULF Merger Should Be Monitored
End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in August 2024
Latest Update on Hanon Systems Stake Sale: Consider Long Short Setup on Hankook Tire & Hanon
(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2024: Canvest, Furukawa, Arvida, Advanced Info, Sermsuk, Thaicom

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions – Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.
The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.
The Nikkei Index Team announced Fast Retailing (9983 JP) would be capped. I didn’t expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.

True Wind Raises Partial Offer for Sun Corp Further, Leaving an Interesting Back End

On 10 June, Sun Corp subsidiary Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)‘s SPAC sponsor True Wind Capital launched a Tender Offer for 19% of SunCorp at a premium but discount to NAV.
The price was too low. CLBT shares rose. They lifted the TOB price by 8% to ¥4750. Still too low. It was trading there. Now they have lifted to ¥5500.
Now a 49% premium to undisturbed, 29.4% premium to all-time high prior to the first tender. Changes in terms means this could get done. More bullish than it looks.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.
Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.

Sun Corporation (6736 JP): Third’s Time a Charm for True Wind’s Final Offer

True Wind has increased its partial offer for Sun Corp (6736 JP) to JPY5,500 and materially lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 3.3m to 1.1m.
True Wind’s previous two offers were a non-starter due to an unattractive price and an onerous minimum acceptance threshold. The final offer addresses both these issues.
The offer will succeed due to the low minimum acceptance threshold and the 25% price uplift vs. the 19% value increase in the Cellebrite stake (since the offer announcement).

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The “Unification”

Just shy of three years ago, BHP (BHP AU) announced the unification of its dual-headed corporate structure to make BHP “simpler and more agile”.
Collapsing DLCs/share-classes was all the rage back then. The prior year, Unilever (UNA NA) collapsed its DLC; and Royal Dutch Shell unified its A and B lines in 2021.
Rio (RIO AU/LN) is one of only a handful of remaining DLCs. Renewed investor calls to unwind the DLC and the recent UK’s listing regime reform necessitate a rethink.

KRX’s September Major Rebalancing Events: Why We Should Focus on KRX BBIG

The KRX BBIG’s concentrated weight and top three replacements still attract significant flow trading interest despite a decline in AUM.
In the Battery Sector, Posco Future M will replace Ecopro BM, while in the Bio Sector, Alteogen will replace SK Biopharmaceuticals.
A significant single-day passive flow is expected, especially for SK Biopharm. Additionally, a day trading setup with Posco Future M and Ecopro BM will likely attract substantial interest.

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 3 Changes Likely; INTUCH-GULF Merger Should Be Monitored

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
At present, we see 3 ADDs and 3 DELs but since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in August 2024

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in August 2024, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 39 are in KOSDAQ.
These 41 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in August and could underperform relative to the market.
The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in August include APR, Fadu, and Kuk Il Paper.

Latest Update on Hanon Systems Stake Sale: Consider Long Short Setup on Hankook Tire & Hanon

Today’s news indicates Hankook Tire found contingent liabilities in Hanon Systems’ finances, meeting conditions to break the May agreement and putting the deal on indefinite hold.
Hankook Tire plans to adjust the new share price first, then the existing share price, while Hahn & Co, unable to delay its exit, will likely accept it.
With Hahn & Co likely to accept Hankook Tire’s price adjustment request, consider a long-short setup: Hankook Tire may benefit from positive momentum, while Hanon Systems faces negative dilution.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2024: Canvest, Furukawa, Arvida, Advanced Info, Sermsuk, Thaicom

For the month of July 2024, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~31%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

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Jul 31

Daily Brief Event-Driven: India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
CPMC (906 HK): Champion’s Offer Now Open. But All Eyes On ORG’s Tilt
Reservoir Hogs: WH Group (288 HK) Mulls US/Mexican Spin-Off
CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Poker Face off as Changping Industrial Launches Offer at Unchanged Terms
Block Deal Sale Of 2.3% Stake in Woori Financial and Highlights of Its Corporate Value Up Program
Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: Billion Dollar Flows Now in the Money
KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends Today
Nasdaq (NDAQ): $2.7bn Offering’s Global Index Implications
Southern Cross Gold (SXG AU)/Mawson (MAW CN): Hybrid Dual-Listing
Solaria: The Next Big Takeover in Spanish Renewables?

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-March.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 12 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could see passive outflows in August.

CPMC (906 HK): Champion’s Offer Now Open. But All Eyes On ORG’s Tilt

Back on the 6th December 2023, packaging play CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer of $6.87/share, in cash, from SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion.
The Offer Document is now out. This is not a Composite Document. A “Response Document” is expected in two weeks, which will include the IFA opinion.
All the above is moot. ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)‘s superior HK$7.21/share Offer is currently navigating the necessary regulatory approvals. With irrevocables, ORG has 46.44% in the bag.

Reservoir Hogs: WH Group (288 HK) Mulls US/Mexican Spin-Off

Earlier this month, WH Group (288 HK) announced it had submitted a plan to spin-off its Smithfield US and Mexican ops on the NYSE or NASDAQ,
These ops accounted for 54% of WHG’s FY23 revenue and 22.4% of the operating profit; compared to 56% and 44.9% respectively in FY22.
We’ve been here before. A Smithfield spin-off was touted in 4Q23 (in the media). WHG acquired Smithfield for US$4.7bn in 2013, ahead of its 2014 listing.

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Poker Face off as Changping Industrial Launches Offer at Unchanged Terms

Changping Industrial’s offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) opens at an unchanged HK$6.87, 4.7% below ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)’s competing HK$7.21 offer.
Changping Industrial thinks deal fatigue may tip the balance in its favour. However, minorities will call Changping’s bluff, as the offer at current terms has a low chance of success.
Despite the current posturing, Changping Industrial will likely need to bump above ORG’s offer marginally to succeed. Expect more twists and turns in this contested battle.

Block Deal Sale Of 2.3% Stake in Woori Financial and Highlights of Its Corporate Value Up Program

On 30 July, it was reported that IMM Private Equity (PE) sold a 2.3% stake (16.78 million shares) of Woori Financial Group (WFG), which was worth 264 billion won.
Block deal sale price was 15,737 won (0.4% higher than current price). Today’s block deal sale represents a second block deal sale of Woori Financial by IMM PE in 2024.
Under the mid-to-long term Value Up program, Woori Financial Group aims to achieve a sustainable ROE of 10% and total shareholder returns of 50%.

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: Billion Dollar Flows Now in the Money

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity’s estimation of the latest ranks of potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in September 2024.
We have been tracking these movements for several months and it seemed like index changes were unlikely to take place but our expectations have changed now.

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends Today

The review period for the September rebalance ends today, the changes will be announced in the first week of September and implemented at the close of trading on 12 September.
There is at least one change expected for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet, Game and BBIG indices.
The largest flows will be in Posco Future M, Ecopro BM, SK Biopharmaceuticals, Alteogen, Celltrion, SKC Co, Kakao Corp, Douzone Bizon, Krafton and Samsung Biologics.

Nasdaq (NDAQ): $2.7bn Offering’s Global Index Implications

By Dimitris Ioannidis

The size of the offering is expected to trigger intra-quarter implementations for both main global indices to be announced on 30 July and become effective 1 August.
Free float increase is estimated to take place due to Thoma Bravo – Nasdaq’s major strategic shareholder – offering almost half of its stake equivalent to ~$2.7bn.
Total forecasted passive fund demand is ~5.3m shares, ~$368m and ~1.8 ADV. It is expected to materialize at close of 1 August 2024.

Southern Cross Gold (SXG AU)/Mawson (MAW CN): Hybrid Dual-Listing

On the 11th June, Southern Cross Gold (SXG AU) announced a proposed merger with Mawson Gold (MAW CN). It’s a novel approach to dual-list both companies in Australia and Canada..
MAW intends to divest all its non-SXG assets, and reduce its shares out to mirror shares held in SXG. Then issue new shares to SXG shareholders on a one-for-one basis.
Terms are now firmed for what the media calls a “reverse spin-out”, with a Scheme Meeting expected in October, and potential implementation late-October/early-November.

Solaria: The Next Big Takeover in Spanish Renewables?

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR SM) faces stock market volatility amid takeover rumors. The controlling family reportedly won’t sell below €20/share, a 79% premium to current prices.
After the takeover of other independent power developers, Solaria may now hold some scarcity value. Premia in comparable transactions range from 27% to 54%. Solaria trades at 11.2x fwd EBITDA.
A 50% premium (€16.8/share, €3.1bn EV) takeover wouldn’t be irrational at 14.7x EBITDA. I believe the shares are undervalued and recommend buying SLR SM at current prices, anticipating a possible deal.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fancl (4921) – Extendy-Extendy-Bumpity-Bumpity and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Fancl (4921) – Extendy-Extendy-Bumpity-Bumpity
Examining a Proactive Flow Trading Setup Targeting Korean Value-Up Disclosures
Stanley Electric (6923) – Salutary Q1 and BIG Buyback
Why Is Proportionate Shareholder Protection Key to Korea’s Value-Up, and What Is Its Status?
Charoen Rearranges ThaiBev and TCC’s Deckchairs
Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder
Ola Electric IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion
Big (Relatively Speaking) NEG (5214 JP) Buyback – Walking The Walk, Faster
STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Diverge Further from Potential Deletes
A8 New Media (800 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 23 August Vote

Fancl (4921) – Extendy-Extendy-Bumpity-Bumpity

The Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) Tender Offer to buy out minorities in Fancl Corp (4921 JP) closes today. Or at least the current one does.
The original deal announced was light, and the stock has traded above terms since the announcement, with one fund buying up to 7.94%.
I expect Kirin to extend and bump next week, or bump/extend now, depending on their visibility on Fancl Q1.

Examining a Proactive Flow Trading Setup Targeting Korean Value-Up Disclosures

Value-Up plan announcements had a significant immediate price impact, especially for Woori Financial and Shinhan Financial, amplified by recent dividend tax reductions.
We should target companies likely to announce value-up disclosures soon, focusing on those with prior notices. Notably, KB Financial and DB HiTek have issued prior notices.
Both companies hold many treasury shares. KB Financial is a dividend stock, with value-up disclosures likely during their Q3 and Q4 earnings announcements.

Stanley Electric (6923) – Salutary Q1 and BIG Buyback

Today after the close Stanley Electric (6923 JP) announced a salutary Q1 result which was “ahead of in-line” in most metrics towards unchanged H1 and FY guidance.
The company also announced a BIG on-market buyback at 8.1% of shares out, to be bought back with a delayed start over the 7.5mos starting 13 August.
At last price, the buyback is ~10mm shares. The details are interesting and are worth a look.

Why Is Proportionate Shareholder Protection Key to Korea’s Value-Up, and What Is Its Status?

A new tax support framework for Korea’s value-up policy was introduced, but local markets argue that proportionate protection for minority shareholders is crucial for a significant market value increase.
Korean political leaders are united in supporting this amendment to the Commercial Act, with recent events increasing the likelihood of bipartisan support for this crucial change.
Given the administration’s commitment to the value-up and recent negative sentiment towards recent restructurings at Doosan and SK, there’s growing potential for minority shareholder protection to take root in Korea.

Charoen Rearranges ThaiBev and TCC’s Deckchairs

Back on the 18th, the Sirivadhanabhakdi family-backed Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) announced it would swap its 28.78% stake in Frasers Property Ltd (FPL SP) with THBEV-affiliate TCC Assets.
Under the agreement, TCC will transfer a 41.3% stake in food and beverage play Fraser And Neave (FNN SP) to THBEV, lifting THBEV’s holding to 69.61% from 28.31% currently.
The share swap triggers no Offers for either F&N or FPL. THBEV says it has no plans to privatise F&N … at the moment.

Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami’s entity, City Index Eleventh, and daughter reported a 5.05% position in Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP). The shares were purchased from 24 May to 22 July.
Murakami’s average buy-in price is JPY3,907.38, a 6.7% discount to the last close price. Recently, Simplex (the previous largest shareholder) sold its entire stake to Taisei Co Ltd (4649 JP).
Murakami’s disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents indicate the latter.

Ola Electric IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion

The Ola Electric (1700674D IN) IPO will see the company and existing shareholders sell 808.6m shares at a price range of INR72-76/share, valuing the company between US$3.79bn-US$4bn.
Ola Electric (1700674D IN) will have a float of around 10% at the time of listing and that will increase to around 20% after the lock-up on anchor investors ends.
Ola Electric (1700674D IN) could be added to global indices in February and March 2025, but inclusion in local indices with meaningful tracking assets will take longer.

Big (Relatively Speaking) NEG (5214 JP) Buyback – Walking The Walk, Faster

Today, Nippon Electric Glass (5214 JP) announced an on-market buyback of up to 7.0mm shares (8.08%) spending up to ¥20bn from tomorrow through end-January 2025.
An impressive headline, but fewer shares. Importantly, this follows a ¥20bn buyback from last November. They are moving through their MTMP more quickly than expected.
This new buyback is worth about 25% of the inbound cross-holdings. And some of those holders plan to sell. This may be designed to let them sell in the market.

STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Diverge Further from Potential Deletes

The review period for the September rebalance ends 31 July. We expect the changes to be announced 30 August with the implementation taking place after the close on 13 September.
We forecast 6 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR100 Index and the STAR50 INDEX. There is uncertainty for a few adds given profitability (or lack of it).
The outright potential adds have outperformed the outright potential deletes since the start of the calendar year with 12% outperformance in just the last 3 weeks.

A8 New Media (800 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 23 August Vote