This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Korea’s Financial Regs Drop New IPO Allocation and Delisting Rules: What It Means and What to Expect
- We might see a liquidity crunch post-listing, with tighter regulations and mandatory holding drying up liquidity, causing more volatile price swings.
- Big local players with heavy lock-ups will take a large allocation, creating significant overhang risk at the six-month mark. Stronger IPO eligibility boosts costs, pushing funds toward riskier trades.
- Overall, this feels like a quick fix. Rather than focusing on long-term market improvements, we should focus on the new pricing patterns likely to emerge in the short term.
2. HKEx Consultation Paper – What Matters for ECM Investors
- Stock Exchange of Hong Kong issued a consultation paper titled Proposals to Optimise IPO Price Discovery and Open Market Requirements with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
- In this note, we summarize key points for ECM investors and analyze the impact from a historical perspective the impact for ECM investors.
- We are of the view that overall the changes will benefit ECM investors by reallocating a portion of the profits from cornerstone investors.
3. Smithfield Foods (SFD): Terms Set for WH Group’s Spin-Off
- Spin-Off of WH Group’s could raise up to $939 million if priced at the high-end of the range
- The IPO is set to price on Monday January 27th for a Tuesday, January 28th debut
- Flash numbers revealed sales for the three months ended December 29, 2024 will range from $3,873 million to $3,953 million (prev. year $3,998 million)
4. Details of New IPO System Improvement Measures in Korea
- The FSC announced the details of its new IPO system improvement measures in Korea on 21 January.
- New rules will discourage the rampant first day trading of Korean IPOs. In 74 out of 77 IPOs in 2024, institutional investors were “net sellers” on the listing date.
- Rather, the new rules will encourage the investors to take more longer term approach to investing in Korean IPOs.
5. Venture Global Inc. (VG): IPO Terms Slashed by 40% in Reworking of Deal
- The company reduced the range from $40-$46 to $23-$27 and increased the amount of shares offered by the company from 50.0mm shares –> 70.0mm shares.
- It is highly unusual that the underwriting lineup, company and buy-side was so misaligned on valuation leading to this massive slashing of the deal.
- The deal is considered “oversubscribed” with several significant anchor orders placed following the reworking of terms.
6. Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$300 million, according to press reports.
- Guming is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand and the second largest freshly-made brand across all price ranges, regarding GMV in 2023.
- The bull case rests on a rising market share, strong franchisee profitability, top-tier revenue growth, high margins, cash generation and a strong balance sheet.
7. Sichuan Biokin (百利天恒) H-Listing: Impressive Clinical Results so Far
- Sichuan Biokin is looking at a A-H listing and is looking to raise up to USD 500 million.
- In this note we look at the company’s fundamentals briefly including its heavyweight product BL-B01D1. We also examine its deal with BMS.
- The stock has performed well on Shanghai STAR board since its A share listing.
8. Pre-IPO Guming Holdings (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Due to intense competition, freshly-made beverage market has shown signs of saturation after rapid growth in previous years. Guming is currently in a bottleneck period. Future performance growth will decline.
- Due to a decrease in consumption, we have seen the price war in this industry. We think Guming’s profit margin performance will decline in the future if it reduces prices.
- Guming’s valuation should be higher than Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) and Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) due to larger revenue scale/higher net profit margin, but lower than MIXUE.
9. HDB Financial Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Performance Has Been Slipping
- HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
- HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
- In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.
10. Guming (Good Me) IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK), a leading player in China’s freshly-made branded beverage sector, is widely expected to launch its IPO soon.
- Guming’s Good Me brand is China’s largest mid-priced freshly-made tea store brand in terms of store count as well as GMV.
- Guming reported robust revenue and profit growth for first nine months of 2024 led by new store openings, although same-store sales declined due to rising competition and weak consumer spending.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion
- With improved liquidity, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) could be added to the HSCEI INDEX early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.
- ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is a lower probability inclusion to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.
- The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.
2. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion – It’s All Happening
- The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
- There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
- The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.
3. CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) has announced plans for an H-share listing with media reports indicating a raise of at least US$5bn. Shareholders have approved the issuance.
- CATL (300750 CH) was designated as a Chinese Military Company earlier this year by the U.S. Department of Defense but is still not on the NS-CMIC list.
- The CATL (300750 CH) H-shares should get Fast Entry to the global indices and iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) ETF. Inclusion in the HSCEI and HSI will take longer.
4. Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week
- Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
- There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.
5. Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
- JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
- It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
- Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC.
6. J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up
- J&T Global Express (1519 HK) listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the HSCEI INDEX in September 2024.
- J&T Global Express (1519 HK) could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.
- J&T Global Express (1519 HK) has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.
7. NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Potential Changes in March
- With 10 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 15.9% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 52bn (US$600m). All forecast changes, bar one, have over 1.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- All the forecast deletes are F&O members while two adds are not. NSE Indices could revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.
8. Taiwan: Potential Global Index Changes; Last Review Day Today
- There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
- Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
- Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.
9. Henlius (2696)’s Fail Sets (Another) Bad Precedent
- The question was asked in Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal? Well, now we have one as LVC inexplicably blocked.
- It didn’t appear to make economic rationale for LVC to crash the party – knowing they would do so, and not bother to reduce their position accordingly.
- In tandem with the TCM (570 HK) debacle, it sets another bad precedent for future/existing Hong Kong events. Expect spreads for HK arbs to widen. And Henlius to crater.
10. Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) Future Merger Ratio – Pounding the Table
- In late December, a Jiji article said Tsuruha & Welcia would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. Odd language, but we’ll take it.
- That means we look to what might happen between here and there. The companies will hire Legal and Financial Advisors, wait until both report FY, then start negotiating.
- What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. It’s worthwhile looking at valuations and expectations to decide how to trade. It’s good.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. Introducing: Trumponomics
- Donald Trump’s economic policies are changing the way we think about the US economy and shaping the global economy
- The Trumponomics podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, discusses Trump’s economic agenda and its implications
- Trump’s policies may be inflationary and there are concerns about what will happen next without any guardrails in place
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
2. Trump’s Tariffs and China: THE STATE OF PLAY
- Trump has already entered negotiations with President Xi which may result in a temporary refrain from imposing tariffs.
- Trump has indicated that TikTok will now be part of a broader deal with China which he outlined as a potential 50/50 joint venture with China.
- China has more leverage in trade negotiations with the US than it had during Trump’s first term.
3. Rebuilding The US Physical Economy
- The US infrastructure is in need of billions of dollars in investments to bring it up to speed, highlighted by the $1.1 trillion Infrastructure Investment Economy and Jobs act.
- There is a focus on reshoring and revitalizing the US economy through infrastructure investments, with private companies playing a significant role in funding major projects.
- Demographic trends, such as the rise of the millennial generation, are driving demand for housing and impacting the housing market, with lower interest rates potentially helping to alleviate some of the pressures.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
4. Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (Starting 20 January 2025)
- We are starting a new series of insights called “Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly.”
- The main purpose of these insights is to pick top 10 stocks in Korea that could outperform KOSPI in the following two week period.
- The top 10 stock picks include Kia Corp, Kangwon Land, OCI Holdings, HD Hyundai, Doosan Bobcat, BNK Financial, Hyundai Mobis, HMM, Hyundai Glovis, and Korean Reinsurance.
5. Steno Signals #181: Welcome to the golden age for risk taking (and scams)
- Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on everything macro and markets.
- It’s been an incredibly eventful weekend in Trump-land, and those who expected him to save all the fireworks for the inauguration speech have already been left behind.
- To recap, Trump has either officially or via leaks/sources hinted at the following:The launch of the official meme-Trump-coin, which has gone absolutely through the roof, taking SOL to new highs alongside it.
6. Trump 2025 Market = Reagan 1981?
- History doesn’t repeat itself but rhymes. The current market pattern is eerily similar to the 1980–1981 period when Ronald Reagan first won when the market made an intermediate-term top.
- Reagan entered the White House amidst a wave of partisan enthusiasm but the stock market ran into technical and economic headwinds.
- In 1980, the market faced the challenge of a highly hawkish Federal Reserve. In 2025, the market faces the challenge of elevated valuation and expectations.
7. Details of the Major Changes in Delisting Rules in Korea
- On 21 January, the FSC announced the full details of the major changes in the delisting rules in Korea, which should help to reduce the “Korea Discount.”
- This is one of the biggest ever changes to delisting rules in Korea in the past 30 years.
- These changes will be especially important among investors that are interested in small caps in Korea.
8. Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004
- Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.
- They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.
- Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
9. Quarterly Market Recap: Q4 2024 – [Making Markets, EP.53]
- 2024 was a great year for risk assets, with the S&P up 23% and Bitcoin up 150%
- The year started with concerns about a recession and aggressive Fed rate cuts, but ended with market consensus aligning and a strong performance
- The narrative heading into 2025 includes concerns about Trump’s impact on deregulation and tariffs, as well as potential inflation from immigration policies
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
10. Reasons To Underweight China
- Stay underweight Chinese equities, sell the renminbi. The Chinese corporate profit cycle is worsening , signalling that the economy Is yet to bottom.
- Loss making companies were up 11% YoY in the first 11 months of 2024 and accounted for 25% of manufacturing.
- Operating revenues have held-up, but operating costs are rising fast as are inventories and liabilities. Corporate debt to GDP had already hit 295% in 3Q24.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level
- TSMC: +28.4% Premium; Near-All-Time High, Good Level to Short the Spread
- UMC: -0.4% Discount; Fifth Consecutive Month of Increase in ADR Headroom
- CHT: -0.9% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
2. TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead
- December 2024 revenues of NT$278.16 billion, up 0.8% MoM and up a remarkable 57.8% YoY. It was the second highest monthly revenue in the company’s history.
- Q424 revenue amounted to NT$868,460. At the company’s forecasted exchange rate for Q4, NT$32 to the US$, this amounts to $27.14 billion, the company’s highest quarterly revenue ever
- We expect 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC, likely in the mid to high teens range. Expect Q125 to be down ~5% QoQ based on normal seasonality.
3. Is Quantum Computing An Existential Threat To NVIDIA?
- This is the claim made by an analyst covering IonQ after Jensen’s comments at CES 2025 last week, which tanked share prices of the top four QC proponents
- The CEO’s of both D-Wave and IonQ responded rapidly with press releases refuting his claims and sharing updated, positive news wrt their financials
- What exactly did he say that caused such a response, is he correct or is QC going to eat NVIDIA’s lunch?
4. TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth
- TSMC 4Q24 Gross Margin Comes In At High End of Range; Profit +57% YoY
- TSMC’s Latest Strong Capex Guidance is Good News for Industry Sentiment
- Long-Term Gross Margins — Will Recently High Gross Margins Become a “New Normal”?
5. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC’s 2nm Market? We Think It’s Too Early to Say.
- There is a great opportunity for someone joining an advanced semiconductor manufacturing camp because there could be fewer players in the field.
- For a long time, TSMC production staff have won better bonuses in the company, meaning they might be able to overcome the difficulties in production.
- Rapidus might need another 5 years or more to become profitable if everything runs smoothly for 2nm technology.
6. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible
- TSMC Results Today; Arizona Production of 4nm Started, Yield on Par with Taiwan
- TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 Outlook & Q125 Look Ahead
- Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co
7. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.
- Revenue reached USD$26.88 billion (compared to guidance of 26.1-26.9 billion USD) / NTD$868.46 billion (+14.3% QoQ, +38.8% YoY); Gross margin at 59%,within the guided range of 57-59%.
- Revenue expected to be in the range of USD$25-25.8 billion (-5.5% QoQ) impacted by seasonal factors, offset by AI demand. Gross margin: 57-59%.
- AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. With the advancement of AI technologies, the company anticipates mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators within a five-year period (2024-2029),
8. Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co
- Delta Thailand Weakness Amid Block Trade and Convertible Bond News
- Delta Taiwan Offering Convertible Bonds, Convertible into Delta Thailand Shares
- Delta Thailand Still Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan — Short Delta Thailand vs. Long Delta Taiwan
9. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): A Slightly Further Improvement 1Q25 Outlook
- In 1Q25, there was a further improvement to -5% QoQ for UMC, and its gross margin is at around 26-28%.
- The extra improvement is from Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), which has also received an additional order from Vivo.
- The outlook remains unclear as Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is facing uncertainties in 2025.
10. TSMC. The Juggernaut Accelerates!
- AI related demand accounted for ~15% of revenue in 2024, i.e. ~$13.5 billion. This is set to double to $27 billion in 2025
- 5 year growth CAGR of 20%, at the top end of the previously guided 15-20% range
- On track for $100 billion revenue in 2025, and most likely, $200 billion by 2030
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – ASEAN, ANZ, ADRs
- In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at ASEAN, ANZ and ADRs.
- This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
- The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.
2. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Japan and South Korea
- In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at Japan & Korea after having looked at HK & India.
- This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
- The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.
3. Murata Manufacturing Placement – Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong
- A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$900m via selling around 3% of Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), in another cross-shareholding selldown.
- The company’s shares haven’t done much over the past few years and recent share price performance as well hasn’t been the best
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
4. ECM Weekly (13th Jan 2025) – LG CNS, Bloks, Guming, Crizac, Shift Up, Adani, Wuxi
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Bloks Group picked up where Mao Geping Cosmetics had left off.
- On the placements front, there were selldowns in Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN) and WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK). We also looked at Shift Up (462870 KS) lockup release.
5. Poor Performance Before UK Lawmakers Is SHEIN’s Latest Stumble on Journey To London (Or HK?) IPO
- SHEIN’s general counsel frustrated UK lawmakers by refusing to answer certain questions
- It’s the latest in a series of potential obstacles that could derail a planned London IPO
- Add growing concerns over cotton supply chain & new threat from Amazon to existing risks
6. LG CNS IPO Book Building Results Analysis
- LG CNS reported a successful IPO book building results analysis. The IPO price has been finalized at 61,900 won per share (high end of the IPO price range).
- The demand ratio from the institutional investors was 114 to 1. At the IPO price of 61,900 won, the expected market cap will be 6 trillion won.
- According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case target price of 76,383 won per share, which represents a 23% upside from the IPO price of 61,900 won.
7. LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Known and Well Loved
- LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India IPO.
- LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
- In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.
8. Dongbang Medical IPO Preview
- Dongbang Medical is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in February 2025. The IPO price range is from 9,000 won to 10,500 won.
- According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap of the comps ranges from 191 billion won to 223 billion won.
- Dongbang Medical specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of acupuncture needles, various cosmetic devices, and other medical devices.
9. Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share
- Chongqing Terminus (2471080D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It operates in China’s public realm AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) industry.
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
10. Pre-IPO Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine – High Valuation Cannot Be Justified
- Hengrui plans to IPO in Hong Kong, but it hasn’t yet completed the business transformation from generic drugs to innovative drugs, and is still facing the negative impact of VBP.
- The key point is whether the innovative drug business has sustained high enough growth rate to offset the decline in generic drug business so as to support the high valuation.
- Hengrui is overvalued in A-Share. We think Hengrui’s valuation should be lower than that of BeiGene (6160 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) in Hong Kong stock market.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): SHIFT Splits; Updated Ranking, Capping & Funding
- The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in 3 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) will have a 15:1 stock split next week and that puts the stock in the list of potential inclusions over the next couple of rebalances.
- The recent drop in Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s stock price will lead to a single step drop in the PAF. That means less passive selling and a smaller funding buy.
2. Henlius (2696 HK): LVC Won’t Block. Buy Here & On Weakness
- Ahead of Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)‘s EGM and Court Meeting on the 22 January, the focus has shifted to Loyal Valley Capital (LVC)’s continued buying in the market.
- After the close of market last Friday, LVC held 7.8295%, above the 7.826% blocking stake. That % was as at 9th January. I assume LVC are still buying.
- Yet if you analyse how LVC has traded in and out of Henlius, they are not in it to block. They’re in for the back-end scrip option.
3. Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel
- Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
- Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
- The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).
4. Kokusai Electric (6525) – Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand
- Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. The stock was cheap. It rose sharply, tripling in 9 months. At the ATH, the pre-IPO owners launched a HUGE secondary.
- It was like a second IPO. The stock dipped, rallied, plummeted into pricing. Stayed there for two days, and in 6 months, the shares have halved.
- Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks.
5. Henlius (2696 HK): Test of Nerves Awaiting LVC’s Next Move
- The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread ballooned today due to LVC’s amassing a blocking stake.
- There are valid arguments for LVC to block the vote or to support the offer. LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will point to its voting intentions.
- I continue to believe that LVC will support the offer. At the current price and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 9.1%/160%.
6. Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) – No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness
- A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
- The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
- With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.
7. Bloks Group (325 HK): Bumper Listing; Index Inclusion Timeline
- Bloks Group (1850960D CH) was massively oversubscribed, traded 82% higher on Friday and closed its listing day 40% higher than the IPO price.
- Bloks Group (1850960D CH) now has a full market cap of US$2.7bn. However, lock-ups and cornerstone allocations result in a much lower free float.
- Index inclusions could take place in August and September, but the passive buying is a fraction of the number of shares that will come off lock-up expiry in early July.
8. Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap
- Bain is buying out JAMCO (a long time ago called Itochu Aircraft Maintenance) from Itochu, ANA, Bain’s own portfolio company, and the public. It’s an expected deal. A done deal.
- It is being done too cheaply. The price is 6x next year’s expected EBIT. This year expected ROE is 22%. Next year could be double that.
- And the company has more in non-operating financial assets than its net equity. And a lot of really old land assets are not marked up. Just a shame.
9. SHIFT (3697) The Next – Potential Big Index Add
- Shift Inc (3697 JP) is a high-growth stock in the software services, testing, consulting, development business. They have a big specialist TAM ahead of them.
- Revenue is up 50-fold in 10 years. OP is up 85-fold in that period. Revenue is guided +17.5% in the year to Aug 2025. OP is guided +28%.
- There is an event coming up shortly which could trigger an imminent index inclusion. It’s worth a look.
10. Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near
- The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
- The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
- The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. A Stock Picker’s Guide to 2025
- Equity markets have performed well in the past two years, with 2024 being another strong year
- Looking ahead to 2025, we explore the impact of inflation, interest rates, and artificial intelligence on the market
- BlackRock’s global CIO discusses the rarity of three years of 20%+ returns, opportunities in AI, and challenges facing investors in the new year.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
2. Lots More on the Global Selloff in Government Bonds
- Term premium is a key concept in measuring bond yields and interest rates
- The global economy is experiencing fiscal pressures and political noise, impacting bond markets
- Central bank asset purchases and sell-offs, along with regulatory reforms, are influencing the bond market and interest rates
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
3. China Watch – The Final Piece in the Inflation Puzzle?
- Everything in markets seems to revolve around inflation, inflation expectations, and rising bond yields.
- This makes it the perfect time to revisit our outlook on inflation.
- Inflation is a critical topic because the Fed has become sensitive to prices again, as indicated in both the meeting minutes and the December economic projections.
4. President Yoon’s Approval Ratings Surges to 47%, Gets Arrested, and Declares Rampant Election Fraud
- It has been another wild day in South Korea as Yoon Suk-Yeol became the first sitting South Korean President to be arrested.
- A recent local poll released on 14 January showed that President Yoon’s approval rating surged to 46.6%.
- President Yoon released a letter to the Korean people. The heart of the letter is about the rampant election fraud in Korea and the desperate need to restore election integrity.
5. Steno Signals #180 – Some men just want to see the world burn (but not Trump)
- Happy Sunday, and welcome to my weekly editorial on all things Macro after a tumultuous week! I must admit, I’ve been surprised by the resilience of inflation and the growth momentum in the U.S. economy.
- Both indicators continue to deliver results above median/trend values, suggesting that the U.S. economy is growing in both nominal and real terms at levels typically exceeding historical norms.
- This is precisely why we’ve developed incredibly robust nowcasting models.
6. Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0
- We identify five key themes that will shape Asia’s economic outlook this year. The first theme is Trump 2.0, global tariffs and supply chain diversification.
- Trump 2.0 will be a drag on Asia’s growth, even with targeted tariffs. Outside of China, tariff risks are highest for Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
- Lower inflation will allow central banks to shift their focus to growth and trigger a deeper rate cut cycle, provided FX weakness is within reasonable limits.
7. Headwinds, Tailwinds in 2025
- This year overweight US dollar, underweight European, Malaysian, Korean and Indonesian sovereign bonds. In 2024 68.9% of our 43 investment recommendation and forecasts made money.
- The key headwinds are dollar strength , Trump’s trade war, the slower monetary policy easing, China, Europe and US valuations.
- Tailwinds include, the strength of the US economy, Trump’s pro-business domestic policy agenda, tame energy prices, India, conflict resolutions and a lighter global election cycle.
8. The Launch of the KRX TMI (Total Market Index) – Korea’s TOPIX Index
- Korea Exchange disclosed the new KRX TMI (Total Market Index) on 13 January. This is a market index that consists of eligible stocks in the entire KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets.
- The KRX TMI index is similar to Japan’s TOPIX index. The KRX TMI index is calculated by adopting a free-float market capitalization weighting method.
- We provide a list of 20 companies in KOSDAQ that could benefit from the launch of the KRX TMI index.
9. 69.8% Of Our 2024 Calls Made Money
- We are optimistic about the outlook for global growth and markets in 2025, despite anticipating turbulence driven by Trump’s policies. Stay overweight US markets, US dollar and Bitcoin. Underweight China.
- Our differentiated business cycle framework investing worked. Of the 43 calls made, on global markets and eleven countries/regions, 69.8% were accurate+ in 2024.
- We predicted the US soft landing , Trump’s re-election, a strong dollar, the US & bitcoin rallies, the European slowdown and TAIX outperformance.
10. Maha Kumbh 2025- How Big Is It for Economy?
- The Mahakumbh Mela 2025, hailed as the largest gathering of the Hindu faith, is set to host an estimated 400-450 million devotees from India and around the world.
- The event’s estimated budget is INR 6,382 crore (USD 800 Mn) for event management and infrastructure development, 72% higher than the budget allocated in 2019 Kumbh.
- Kumbh Mela could generate financial transactions totaling INR 2–2.5 lakh crore (USD 25–30 billion) over 45 days. This accounts for an estimated 0.5–0.8% of the country’s GDP.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. NVIDIA @ CES 2025. Forget The AIPC, We’ve Got A Supercomputer PC!
- Project Digits is a supercomputer on everybody’s desk for $3000. Seems crazy but feels like 1977 Ken Olson moment “no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”
- Lack of data center revenue growth predictions likely spooked investors and triggered a ~10% pullback. Just buy the dip, you know you want to…
- Micron and MediaTek both jumped on news of their further involvement in NVIDIA’s AI acceleration hardware supply chain.
2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.
- After the peak of 4Q24, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)‘s revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.
- TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Apple (AAPL US) could present products around 1Q26.
- TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025.
3. 2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook
- Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.
- This last year was the year of AI through and through.
- There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.
4. Intel @ CES 2025. Doubling Down On The AIPC & Other Fantastical Tales
- Intel is pinning much hope on the success of the AIPC, a venture in which they are tied at the hip with Microsoft, which calls it a CoPilot+ PC
- The AIPC/CoPilot+ PC concept is struggling to gain traction. They will sell in volume, but only because buyers will have limited alternatives available. Ultimately, we see AIPCs cannibalising non-AIPCs
- Intel’s performance was underwhelming to say the least, but at the same time, not in the least bit surprising. Earnings coming on January 23.
5. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix’s HBM Win
- Latest TSMC Price Hike — Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative
- Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC’s Largest Customer in 2025E
- SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings
6. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.
- United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
- We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.
- It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.
7. Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (II)
- Considering of current financial outcome of Intel Corp (INTC US), we cannot but favor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US).
- Currently, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) has a more favorable competitive landscape compared to Intel Corp (INTC US).
- The competition in PC CPU emphasizes not only performance but also heat dissipation and other techniques related to supply management.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. LG CNS IPO: Valuation Insights
- LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.
- We previously discussed the IPO in LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case and LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case.
- We examine the syndicate’s valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that LG CNS is attractive in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.
2. Bloks Group Likely To Price IPO at High End of Range: What To Expect From First Trading-Day?
- Bloks Group, a founder-led toy maker and owner of trusted brand “Blokees”, will price its IPO this week. Shares are set to begin trading on January 10, 2025.
- I would expect strong first trading-day return as HK public offering was already 5,000+ times oversubscribed at high end of marketed price range.
- I believe investors are rationally optimistic about the company. Bloks Group IPO attracted a surge of retail investors, and the stock may skyrocket above IPO price on first trading-day.
3. Bloks Group IPO – Outgrowing Its Peers, Decent Valuation
- Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$187m in its Hong Kong IPO.
- Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
- In our previous notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.
4. Aequitas 2024 IPOs and Placements Performance Review-India Driving Volumes as HK Shows Signs of Life
- 2024 marked our ninth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia-Pacific. In 2024, IPO volumes were mainly driven by India, even as Hong Kong showed signs of turning a corner.
- We ended 2024 with an accuracy rate of 79.4% across 68 IPOs that we covered and 68.8% across 109 placements.
- For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.
5. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – Hong Kong
- In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, starting with Hong Kong.
- This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
- The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.
6. Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – India
- In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, following up with a look at India after having looked at Hong Kong earlier.
- This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
- The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.
7. CaoCao Pre-IPO: Scaling up but a Cash Infusion Is Required
- CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
8. Wuxi XDC Placement – A Repeat of Biologics Placement Saga, Last Deal Did Well
- WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$150m via selling around 3% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
- WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
9. Aye Finance Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Aye FInance Ltd (1239156D IN) (AFL) is looking to raise about US$171m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, IIFL, JM Fin, Nuvama.
- AFL is a non-banking financial company – middle layer (NBFC-ML) that focuses on providing loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) across India.
- According to CRISIL Report, AFL is recognized as the fastest-growing NBFC in India among its peers with YoY AUM growth between FY24 and FY23, achieving a growth rate of 64%.
10. Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Showing Some Recent Weakness in Margins
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
- In our earlier notes, we had looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we discuss its refiling updates.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma (600276 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
- Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$2bn.
- In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
- There will be no Fast Entry in any indices but there will be index inclusions in multiple indices if the raise is larger or once the cornerstone investor lock-up ends.
2. Tencent (700 HK): DoD Says Chinese Military Company; Not on NS-CMIC List Yet
- The U.S. Department of Defense has designated Tencent (700 HK) as a Chinese Military Company. Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) shares were down nearly 8% overnight.
- There is no change to the Non-SDN Chinese Military-Industrial Complex Companies List (NS-CMIC) yet. But the overlap between the DoD list and the NS-CMIC list is high.
- If added to the NS-CMIC list, Tencent (700 HK) will be deleted from global indexes and there will be HUGE passive selling from these trackers.
3. 7&I (3382 JP) – Dippity Doo Dah – Irrational Fears, Earnings Vol, But Restructuring Proceeding Apace
- Recent news on the Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) situation includes better-than-expected possible sale of the SST business, a little headline fear-mongering on national security, and earnings.
- Earnings this year will be volatile vs expectations. Timing (and magnitude) of kitchen-sinking matters. But neither ACT nor you should be buying it based on trough earnings expectations.
- The call transcript is worth listening to. The math on the takeover maths well. This is a buy on dip. Again.
4. HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: One Constituent Change & US$884m Trade
- The review period for the March rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) ended on 31 December.
- There could be one constituent change in March. With capping changes, that could lead to a one-way turnover of 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.88bn (US$884m).
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is also a potential inclusion to the HSCI Index in March, though inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only come through in May.
5. Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn
- SigmaHealthcare and ChemistWarehouse shareholders meet on 29 January. If the merger resolutions are approved, Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be effective on 4 February.
- Upward migration in one large global index could take place on 13 February while upweights and upward migrations in the S&P/ASX indices should be at the close on 21 March.
- Upward migration in the other global index could take place in March or June. Total passive buying estimate is A$2.76bn. This will be offset by positioning and CWG shareholders selling.
6. S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger
- Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in March.
- Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/ASX 300.
- Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) over the February to June period.
7. HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025
- We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
- There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.
- There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.
8. Fujitsu General (6755) – Long Sale Process Finally Over. Unexciting but Uncomplicated Deal.
- In December 2019, an article in slightly odd Japanese business magazine Sentaku (選択) suggested Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) would imminently seek to address dual listings of subs.
- Some subs went early. The auction for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) started spring 2023, failed, started again, failed again, and the shares languished.
- Two years later we have a deal. Large privately-held company Paloma-Rheem Holdings is the buyer in a split-price deal which comes at a decent but not exorbitant premium.
9. Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Up to 5 Changes in March
- The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 31 December. The changes will be announced on 21 February and become effective after the close 7 March.
- There could be 5 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
- Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is a potential inclusion to the HSCI and the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March.
10. NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Yuuge Flow & Impact; Positioning Mixed
- Zomato (ZOMATO IN) and Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) should replace Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) and Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in March.
- Passive NIFTY Index trackers will need to trade at least 4.5x ADV and 8.8x delivery volume on the stocks. There is some opposite flow from Nifty Next 50 Index trackers.
- There does not appear to be a lot of positioning in Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) and the stock could outperform its peers over the next few months.