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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): SEBI’s F&O Criteria Revision & Its Impact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • SEBI’s F&O Criteria Revision & Its Impact
  • Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Struggles to Find Footing in September
  • # 55 India Insight: Motherson Plans QIP, Tata Consumer Merger, Adani Power Invest INR 18,000 Crore
  • Tokyo Morning Connection: NKY225 Rebalance Decision, Likely Dip Buying After Yesterdays Rout
  • Hotchips Conference Sparknotes


SEBI’s F&O Criteria Revision & Its Impact

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI has overhauled F&O eligibility criteria, introducing stricter norms for stock inclusion and exclusion for more active stocks. 
  • As per calculation, New criteria will include 80 stocks and exclude 18 to 23, impacting market liquidity and stability.
  • This will lead to the creation of a more robust, transparent, and liquid for the F&O Market.

Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Struggles to Find Footing in September

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks finished mostly lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending down for the fourth time in the past five sessions
  • Nvidia, the U.S. chipmaker, will invest several billion yen in Sakana AI, a Japanese AI startup co-founded by former Google researchers.
  • Biden to block Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel (X: -17%) on national security grounds

# 55 India Insight: Motherson Plans QIP, Tata Consumer Merger, Adani Power Invest INR 18,000 Crore

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Samvardhana Motherson Plans $1 Billion QIP for Debt Reduction or Acquisition.
  • Tata Consumer Ltd. Products Merges Three Subsidiaries to Streamline Operations 
  • Adani Power to Invest INR 18,000 Crore to Triple Kawai Plant Capacity

Tokyo Morning Connection: NKY225 Rebalance Decision, Likely Dip Buying After Yesterdays Rout

By Andrew Jackson

  • NKY225 rebalance decision was made yesterday: Ryohin Keikaku and NRI replaced Nippon Paper and DIC. A focus on sector balance should continue to be positive for future consumer goods candidates.
  • With US markets stabilizing there are several names with strong fundamental drivers which look attractive as buy the dip candidates after yesterdays heavy selling.
  • US job opening data below street estimates increases likelihood that Fed will start with a 50 bps cut this month. Should help the likes of Shin Etsu and Sumitomo Forestry.

Hotchips Conference Sparknotes

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Hot Chips this year was primarily about AI chips (per the theme of every semiconductor conference as of late).
  • The most impactful presentation by far was the Broadcom CPO presentation, SuperMicro water cooling, MTIA, and some honorable mentions to Enfabrica and Dojo/Mojo from Tesla.
  • The biggest disappointment was AMD, which presented nothing incremental and, of course, the CPU announcements.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR’s Cop-Out as It Launches at Unchanged Terms, Next Move Bain
  • For Long-Term Investors, Seven & I Is the Better Bet
  • Australia/NZ Real Estate: Stocks With (Large) Passive Flows
  • Ecopro HN: Rights Offering of 200 Billion Won
  • Hojeon: Activist Minority Investors Threaten to Sell Their Shares to a Competitor in a Block Deal
  • FXI Rebalance: China Tower (788 HK) Will Replace CICC (3908 HK)
  • POSCO’s Early EB Payoff and Post-Value-Up Pivot Trading Angles
  • Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Louis Dreyfus Declares Offer Unconditional


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, the Nikkei Index Committee decided to delete Nippon Paper (3863) for low liquidity, and DIC (4631) for sector over-representation, and added Nomura Research Institute (4307) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453).
  • The only auto-delete was Nippon Paper. The DIC delete was “discretionary.” But they could have done a third. Why did they not do a third change? I do not know.
  • The whole shebang should be ¥350-375bn a side. At current price, Fast Retailing is set for another capping (selling) event in March 2025. And there is one shoo-in then too.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

By Brian Freitas


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR’s Cop-Out as It Launches at Unchanged Terms, Next Move Bain

By Arun George

  • In response to the potential Bain competing offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), KKR has waived the precondition and launched its offer at unchanged JPY8,800 per share.
  • Bain’s due diligence ends on 20 September, and it aims to submit a binding proposal in October. This timeline will thwart KKR’s offer, which closes on 21 October.
  • KKR’s offer launch at unchanged terms is delaying the inevitable and will have to bump to succeed. A potential bidding war is likely to push the offer price to JPY10,500. 

For Long-Term Investors, Seven & I Is the Better Bet

By Michael Causton

  • The Couche-Tard “friendly bid” raises more questions than it answers: Is it real? What does CT really want? Can it afford it? Will the Japanese government let it through?
  • We remain sceptical about a bid – if it happens – succeeding. Either way, Seven & Eleven Japan looks to be the much better retailer.
  • It has been selling 25-40% more than competitors in the world’s toughest CVS market and looks set to extract more value in Japan/overseas than anyone else could so why sell?

Australia/NZ Real Estate: Stocks With (Large) Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas


Ecopro HN: Rights Offering of 200 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • On 4 September, Ecopro HN announced that it plans to conduct a rights offering capital raise of about 200 billion won. 
  • The company plans to issue 5.67 million new shares and the expected rights offering price is 35,300 won (23% lower than current price). 
  • We would not subscribe to this rights offering mainly due to lofty valuations, declining sales and profit growth, continued negative free cash flow, and concerns about excessive shares dilution. 

Hojeon: Activist Minority Investors Threaten to Sell Their Shares to a Competitor in a Block Deal

By Douglas Kim

  • A group of minority investors started to go activist on Hojeon (111110 KS), demanding that the company increase its treasury share buybacks/cancellations, dividends, and cut CEO’s salary.
  • This coalition of minority investors has threatened to sell their shares to a competitor (Hansae) if the company does not abide by their demands.
  • Hojeon has attractive valuations and are trading at low multiples. It had P/E of 5x, EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, and P/B of 0.5x in 2023.

FXI Rebalance: China Tower (788 HK) Will Replace CICC (3908 HK)

By Brian Freitas


POSCO’s Early EB Payoff and Post-Value-Up Pivot Trading Angles

By Sanghyun Park

  • Key watchpoints: Will POSCO cancel the 3.4% treasury shares in Q4 and how will they replenish cash reserves after paying ₩1.5 trillion? Their moves could set trends.
  • POSCO might cancel these shares to boost their value-up index weight. This could drive up the stock price, giving them an opening to improve their cash position through equity financing.
  • Expect a short-term stock pivot with value-up index and ETFs driving inflows and price pops. After this, equity financing may signal stock peaks, with POSCO and others leading the trend.

Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Louis Dreyfus Declares Offer Unconditional

By David Blennerhassett

  • Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) and Olam (OLG SP)‘s Olam Agri have been going toe-to-toe over Namoi Cotton (NAM AU) since the 1st February. LDC has now declared its Offer unconditional. 
  • It’s an interesting move. Namoi is trading through LDC’s A$0.67/share Offer terms. But unlike Olam’s Offer, LDC now has FIRB and ACCC under its belt.
  • Currently trading at Olam’s A$0.70/share terms. All eyes are on ACCC giving Olam the green light. Or not.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Sony’s (6758) Bold Move into Web3: What Is Soneium? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Sony’s (6758) Bold Move into Web3: What Is Soneium?
  • PC Partner: Relocating HQ and Listing to Singapore, 81% of Market Cap Is Cash
  • Intel. Could Things Get Any Worse? You Bet. Here’s How.
  • Apple Restructures App Store Amid EU Regulations, Developer Dissatisfaction, and Market Pressures
  • Hyundai Motor India: Feeling the Heat as SUV Rivals Surge
  • China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): When Falling Knife Turns into Value Investing
  • Zai Lab (9688 HK): Vyvgart Is Not the De-Risking Tool; Future Is Still Uncertain
  • [Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Review]: Retail Business Bigger and Longer than Market Thinks
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Sep-2024): UK car market rebounds, EV growth shines at LCV Show.
  • Is Dollar General in Trouble? New Outlook, ‘Financially Constrained’ Customers Spark Major Concerns!


Sony’s (6758) Bold Move into Web3: What Is Soneium?

By Mark Chadwick

  • Sony launches Soneium, a blockchain platform developed with Startale Labs, as a Layer 2 Ethereum solution to enhance transaction speed and scalability.
  • Soneium aims to bridge Web2 and Web3, leveraging Sony’s vast intellectual property in entertainment and technology for broad consumer adoption.
  • Backed by Sony’s resources, Soneium focuses on user-friendly blockchain technology, offering financial and technical support through its Soneium Spark incubation program.

PC Partner: Relocating HQ and Listing to Singapore, 81% of Market Cap Is Cash

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • PC Partner showed a significant improvement in its 1H24 results YoY.
  • The company will be relocating HQ to Singapore and move its primary listing from HK to Singapore. If this move is successful, it will improve AI chips allocation from Nvidia.
  • Why Singapore? PC Partner is preparing itself for a future where China/USA political relationship does not improve.

Intel. Could Things Get Any Worse? You Bet. Here’s How.

By William Keating

  • Intel faces two class action lawsuits, one of which has the potential to be many times worse than the “Pentium Flaw” fiasco in 1994
  • The resignation of Lip-Bu Tan from Intel’s BoD is a significant blow particularly in view of his rumoured disagreements with the CEO and other BoD members
  • Intel’s below book value market cap presents an attractive opportunity for any consortium with the vision to extract the value that Gelsinger’s IDM 2.0 gambit has failed to unlock

Apple Restructures App Store Amid EU Regulations, Developer Dissatisfaction, and Market Pressures

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Apple’s App Store contributed to the $85.2 billion service segment revenue in 2023, with an impressive gross margin of 70.2%, making it a crucial profit driver within Apple’s Services segment.
  • The restructuring splits the App Store division into two teams: one to oversee the traditional App Store, and another to manage new, legally mandated alternative app distribution channels. 
  • Developers who choose to bypass the App Store may incur a substantial Core Technology Fee, potentially amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars, reflecting the cost of maintaining Apple’s ecosystem.

Hyundai Motor India: Feeling the Heat as SUV Rivals Surge

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Hyundai Motor India reported an 8% decline in monthly dispatch volumes ahead of India’s festive season, coinciding with a sharp increase in shipments by competitors in the SUV space.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) , Toyota Kirloskar Motor ( Toyota Motor (7203 JP) JV), and Kia Corp (000270 KS) each posted high double-digit volume growth in August.
  • Overall, India’s domestic Passenger Vehicle sales growth for the April-August period has slowed year-on-year after two years of strong post-COVID momentum.

China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): When Falling Knife Turns into Value Investing

By Mohshin Aziz

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CTG) share price on downtrend due to negative sentiment, increased competition, and Chinese being more frugal in their consumption  
  • 2024 and 2025 consensus earnings declined by -2%/-17%, but CTG will deliver +16% YoY earnings growth in 2025. CTG remains a growths stock, a fact we think many investors forget!  
  • We revise our target price to CNY71.3 pegged to 18.5x FY25 PE (1.5 standard deviation below mean). We think the share price decline is overdone and ignores its strong fundamentals.  

Zai Lab (9688 HK): Vyvgart Is Not the De-Risking Tool; Future Is Still Uncertain

By Tina Banerjee

  • Zai Lab (9688 HK) recorded Vyvgart revenue of $10M, $13M, and $23M in 4Q23, 1Q24, and 2Q24, respectively. The company raised 2024 Vyvgart revenue guidance to $80M from $70M earlier.
  • Despite strong momentum from Vyvgart, Zai Lab still has a lot of pain points. Decelerating revenue growth from Zejula is one of them.
  • Due to its in-licensing business model, Zai Lab has lower gross profit margin of 64–65%, compared with ~80% for a typical innovator biotech company.

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Review]: Retail Business Bigger and Longer than Market Thinks

By Eric Wen

  • Atour (ATAT) reported C2Q24 revenue 2.2%/8.3% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP NI 6.8%/12.3% higher than our est./ cons, driven by stronger hotel supply chain sales and better retail efficiency.
  • We keep 2024 revenue growth estimate at 53% YoY vs. the uplift company guidance at 48%-52% YoY. Potential catalysts are stronger off-season travel,old hotel renovation scheme, and new brand launch.
  • We keep TP unchanged at US$36/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Sep-2024): UK car market rebounds, EV growth shines at LCV Show.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • UK car market sees resurgence as electric vehicles gain popularity at LCV Show, driving up sales and interest in sustainable options.
  • SAIC Motor struggles with falling profits and tariffs on electric vehicles, putting financial strain on the company’s operations.
  • IEDC fosters stronger economic ties between Taiwan and the region through a new office opening, promoting business opportunities and enhancing cooperation.

Is Dollar General in Trouble? New Outlook, ‘Financially Constrained’ Customers Spark Major Concerns!

By Baptista Research

  • Dollar General’s shares have plummeted after the company slashed its sales and profit forecasts for the full year, highlighting the financial struggles of its lower-income customers.
  • The retailer, which primarily serves rural areas, now expects fiscal 2024 same-store sales growth of 1.0% to 1.6%, down from its previous forecast of 2% to 2.7%.
  • Earnings per share are projected to be between $5.50 and $6.20, significantly lower than the prior estimate of $6.80 to $7.55.

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Daily Brief Macro: China Hard Landing Scenario and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • China Hard Landing Scenario
  • Energy Cable/Great Game: OPEC, things could get ugly!
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/35] WTI Crude Oil on a Downward Trend as Demand Concerns Persist
  • CrossASEAN Ground Zero – OVO & Superbank, SCG Packaging in Indonesia, Gig Revolt, and Data Centres
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/35] Henry Hub Rebounds on Hot Weather but Excess Supply Limits Gains
  • Inconsistent Pricing is Too Dovish
  • CX Daily: China’s Increasingly Embattled Steelmakers
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Gross Fixed Investments


China Hard Landing Scenario

By Alex Ng

  • We see a 30% probability of a harder landing in China GDP growth in 2025, which we most likely be in the 3-4% region but could persist into 2026.  
  • A large than projected slowdown in consumption would be a key concern, alongside persistently moderate negative deductions from residential investment. 
  • Negative inflation would only worsen this situation, while China authorities appear reluctant to go beyond targeted extra policy support towards aggressive action.

Energy Cable/Great Game: OPEC, things could get ugly!

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Hi all, Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics.
  • This will allow us to be even more actionable and specific when analyzing global events, as the ramifications of war and peace are most often felt in the commodity space.
  • Take aways: Increasing crude production in the current environment likely means a >25% drop in crude oil prices. There’s significant open interest in December crude put options. Geopolitically, major players are closely monitoring OPEC’s decisions.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/35] WTI Crude Oil on a Downward Trend as Demand Concerns Persist

By Suhas Reddy

  • Despite a strong start, WTI prices fell 1.7% for the week ending 30/Aug, as demand concerns outweighed the worries of supply disruptions in Libya. 
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.72 from 1.13 the week prior as put volume increased 45.6% WoW while call volume declined 4.5%.
  • WTI OI PCR increased to 0.78 (30/Aug) from 0.75 (23/Aug) as call OI rose 4.5% WoW and put OI increased by 8%. 

CrossASEAN Ground Zero – OVO & Superbank, SCG Packaging in Indonesia, Gig Revolt, and Data Centres

By Angus Mackintosh

  • In this edition, we look at OVO and Superbank in Indonesia and how they will coexist, and SCG Packaging as it increases its Indonesia exposure through Fajar Surya.
  • We also look at the implications of the recent gig worker protests in Indonesia and Telekomunikasi Indonesia‘s increasing focus on data centres and a strategic investor there.
  • CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/35] Henry Hub Rebounds on Hot Weather but Excess Supply Limits Gains

By Suhas Reddy

  • US natural gas prices rose 5.2% for the week ending 30/Aug, driven by warmer weather forecasts and low prices encouraging power generators to favour gas over coal.
  • Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1 from 1.34 the previous week as put volumes dropped by 38.5% WoW, while call volumes declined by 17.5%. 
  • Put OI rose for expirations in Sep, Oct, and Nov, while call OI increased for contracts expiring in Dec, Jan, and Feb. 

Inconsistent Pricing is Too Dovish

By Phil Rush

  • Equity prices retested their peaks, but rate expectations for Dec-25 remain near their dysfunctional lows. Demand cannot be both high for revenues and low to justify easing.
  • Residual pricing for a 50bp Fed rate cut exacerbates the inconsistency. Realising a 25bp cut should hawkishly reprice US rates relative to others, supporting the USD.
  • The S&P500’s potential doesn’t seem worth the risk of a crash relative to the reliable money market yield, which could easily outperform, especially in risk-adjusted terms.

CX Daily: China’s Increasingly Embattled Steelmakers

By Caixin Global

  • Steel / Chart of the Day: China’s increasingly embattled steelmakers
  • Accident /: Bus hits crowd outside middle school in East China, killing 11
  • Banks /: Another key executive at Bank of Beijing falls from grace, sources say

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Gross Fixed Investments

By Actinver

  • Gross fixed investment contracted by 1.0% MoM in June due to the completion of public infrastructure projects that impacted construction investment, and the contraction in imported machinery and equipment investment due to the depreciation of the peso.
  • This suggests that the economic slowdown could persist in the second half of the year, pointing to GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024.
  • Throughout 2024, there were mixed signs of deceleration in the components of fixed investment.

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Daily Brief Australia: Nextdc Ltd, Namoi Cotton Co Operative, Rex Minerals, Challenger Ltd, NextEd Group and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Australia/NZ Real Estate: Stocks With (Large) Passive Flows
  • Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Louis Dreyfus Declares Offer Unconditional
  • Rex Minerals (RXM AU): Scheme Vote on 10 October
  • Challenger Limited Placement – Discount Isn’t Enticing Enough for a Surprise Selldown
  • Rex Minerals (RXM AU): 10th Oct Vote On Salim Group’s Offer
  • NextEd Group: WOW! NXD Soars 50%, as Nervous Times Loom for Australian Private Education


Australia/NZ Real Estate: Stocks With (Large) Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas


Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Louis Dreyfus Declares Offer Unconditional

By David Blennerhassett

  • Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) and Olam (OLG SP)‘s Olam Agri have been going toe-to-toe over Namoi Cotton (NAM AU) since the 1st February. LDC has now declared its Offer unconditional. 
  • It’s an interesting move. Namoi is trading through LDC’s A$0.67/share Offer terms. But unlike Olam’s Offer, LDC now has FIRB and ACCC under its belt.
  • Currently trading at Olam’s A$0.70/share terms. All eyes are on ACCC giving Olam the green light. Or not.

Rex Minerals (RXM AU): Scheme Vote on 10 October

By Arun George

  • The Rex Minerals (RXM AU) IE considers MACH Metals Australia’s A$0.47 offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of the A$0.346 to A$0.484 valuation range. 
  • The key conditions are shareholder and FIRB approvals. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Salim is the largest shareholder and the cordial Indonesia-Australia relations.
  • An attractive offer, medium retail ownership and no independent substantial shareholder ensures a done deal. At the last close and for the 30 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.3%/15.9%. 

Challenger Limited Placement – Discount Isn’t Enticing Enough for a Surprise Selldown

By Clarence Chu

  • AP Liberty (Apollo) is looking to raise US$318m from trimming its stake in Challenger Ltd (CGF AU).
  • Apollo’s stake in the firm dates back to Jul 2021, when the investor first acquired a 18% stake in the firm for A$720m. 
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Rex Minerals (RXM AU): 10th Oct Vote On Salim Group’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 8th July, copper-gold play Rex Minerals (RXM AU) entered into a Scheme with MACH Australia. MACH, a wholly-owned entity of Indonesia’s Salim Group, at A$0.47/share, in cash.
  • That’s a 71% premium to last close and a decade-high. The Offer has unanimous board support. Apart from Rex shareholder approval, the Offer requires FIRB signing off.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 10th October. Expected implementation on the 30 October. The IE says fair & reasonable.

NextEd Group: WOW! NXD Soars 50%, as Nervous Times Loom for Australian Private Education

By Anik Siwach

  • Government hammers the international VET sector:  Government issues tough caps, reducing international students in VET.
  • Reliance on international students: NextEd will struggle to operate under reduced international student volumes.
  • Diversification underway: NextEd have been proactive in countering government policy.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Scilex Holding , Far East Orchard and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • SCLX: Company Sets up Spinoff
  • kopi-C with Far East Orchard’s Group CEO: ‘We’re building an enduring Singapore real estate enterprise’


SCLX: Company Sets up Spinoff

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • SCLX is filling a much-needed area of the health care sector, that of developing non-opioid pain relief products.
  • The company already has commercialized products that are proven to improve patients’ lives.
  • The company announced a merger between a SPAC and a Scilex subsidiary that is developing a non-opioid novel injectable corticosteroid, which will set up a spinoff of the combined entity in early 2025.

kopi-C with Far East Orchard’s Group CEO: ‘We’re building an enduring Singapore real estate enterprise’

By Geoff Howie

  • kopi-C with Far East Orchard’s Group CEO: ‘We’re building an enduring Singapore real estate enterprise’ Nearly a decade after entering the student housing market in the United Kingdom in 2015, Singaporean real estate company Far East Orchard continues to see massive potential for growth.
  • Established since 1967, Far East Orchard has a track record in real estate development, investment and management across residential, commercial, hospitality and Purpose-Built Student Accommodation (“PBSA”) properties in Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and the United Kingdom (“UK”).

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Daily Brief South Korea: Ecopro HN, Hojeon, POSCO Holdings, Hyundai Motor India and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Things to Watch in Ecopro HN’s Big Rights Offering
  • Ecopro HN: Rights Offering of 200 Billion Won
  • Hojeon: Activist Minority Investors Threaten to Sell Their Shares to a Competitor in a Block Deal
  • POSCO’s Early EB Payoff and Post-Value-Up Pivot Trading Angles
  • Hyundai Motor India: Feeling the Heat as SUV Rivals Surge


Key Things to Watch in Ecopro HN’s Big Rights Offering

By Sanghyun Park

  • Ecopro HN announced a ₩200 billion rights issue, offering 5.67 million shares (a 40% capital increase) with a stockholder allocation rate of 0.3 per share.
  • The extended timeline likely results from the issuer’s 20% discount push, with Daishin, an underdog banker, extending it to boost subscriptions despite risking price stability.
  • The strategy is to time entry when the stock rights and subscription costs create a solid spread versus the spot price, despite increased volatility making price predictions harder.

Ecopro HN: Rights Offering of 200 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • On 4 September, Ecopro HN announced that it plans to conduct a rights offering capital raise of about 200 billion won. 
  • The company plans to issue 5.67 million new shares and the expected rights offering price is 35,300 won (23% lower than current price). 
  • We would not subscribe to this rights offering mainly due to lofty valuations, declining sales and profit growth, continued negative free cash flow, and concerns about excessive shares dilution. 

Hojeon: Activist Minority Investors Threaten to Sell Their Shares to a Competitor in a Block Deal

By Douglas Kim

  • A group of minority investors started to go activist on Hojeon (111110 KS), demanding that the company increase its treasury share buybacks/cancellations, dividends, and cut CEO’s salary.
  • This coalition of minority investors has threatened to sell their shares to a competitor (Hansae) if the company does not abide by their demands.
  • Hojeon has attractive valuations and are trading at low multiples. It had P/E of 5x, EV/EBITDA of 3.4x, and P/B of 0.5x in 2023.

POSCO’s Early EB Payoff and Post-Value-Up Pivot Trading Angles

By Sanghyun Park

  • Key watchpoints: Will POSCO cancel the 3.4% treasury shares in Q4 and how will they replenish cash reserves after paying ₩1.5 trillion? Their moves could set trends.
  • POSCO might cancel these shares to boost their value-up index weight. This could drive up the stock price, giving them an opening to improve their cash position through equity financing.
  • Expect a short-term stock pivot with value-up index and ETFs driving inflows and price pops. After this, equity financing may signal stock peaks, with POSCO and others leading the trend.

Hyundai Motor India: Feeling the Heat as SUV Rivals Surge

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Hyundai Motor India reported an 8% decline in monthly dispatch volumes ahead of India’s festive season, coinciding with a sharp increase in shipments by competitors in the SUV space.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) , Toyota Kirloskar Motor ( Toyota Motor (7203 JP) JV), and Kia Corp (000270 KS) each posted high double-digit volume growth in August.
  • Overall, India’s domestic Passenger Vehicle sales growth for the April-August period has slowed year-on-year after two years of strong post-COVID momentum.

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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Apple , Crude Oil, Dollar General, Scilex Holding , Natural Gas, Home Depot Inc, Galaxy Gaming, PetroTal and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel. Could Things Get Any Worse? You Bet. Here’s How.
  • Apple Restructures App Store Amid EU Regulations, Developer Dissatisfaction, and Market Pressures
  • Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/35] WTI Crude Oil on a Downward Trend as Demand Concerns Persist
  • Is Dollar General in Trouble? New Outlook, ‘Financially Constrained’ Customers Spark Major Concerns!
  • SCLX: Company Sets up Spinoff
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/35] Henry Hub Rebounds on Hot Weather but Excess Supply Limits Gains
  • Home Depot: Recent Acquisitions & A Focus on the Professional Customer Segment Is Expected To Drive Growth!
  • Galaxy Gaming Inc (GLXZ) – Monday, Jun 3, 2024
  • PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Potential Reserve Addition


Intel. Could Things Get Any Worse? You Bet. Here’s How.

By William Keating

  • Intel faces two class action lawsuits, one of which has the potential to be many times worse than the “Pentium Flaw” fiasco in 1994
  • The resignation of Lip-Bu Tan from Intel’s BoD is a significant blow particularly in view of his rumoured disagreements with the CEO and other BoD members
  • Intel’s below book value market cap presents an attractive opportunity for any consortium with the vision to extract the value that Gelsinger’s IDM 2.0 gambit has failed to unlock

Apple Restructures App Store Amid EU Regulations, Developer Dissatisfaction, and Market Pressures

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Apple’s App Store contributed to the $85.2 billion service segment revenue in 2023, with an impressive gross margin of 70.2%, making it a crucial profit driver within Apple’s Services segment.
  • The restructuring splits the App Store division into two teams: one to oversee the traditional App Store, and another to manage new, legally mandated alternative app distribution channels. 
  • Developers who choose to bypass the App Store may incur a substantial Core Technology Fee, potentially amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars, reflecting the cost of maintaining Apple’s ecosystem.

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
  • Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
  • SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/35] WTI Crude Oil on a Downward Trend as Demand Concerns Persist

By Suhas Reddy

  • Despite a strong start, WTI prices fell 1.7% for the week ending 30/Aug, as demand concerns outweighed the worries of supply disruptions in Libya. 
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.72 from 1.13 the week prior as put volume increased 45.6% WoW while call volume declined 4.5%.
  • WTI OI PCR increased to 0.78 (30/Aug) from 0.75 (23/Aug) as call OI rose 4.5% WoW and put OI increased by 8%. 

Is Dollar General in Trouble? New Outlook, ‘Financially Constrained’ Customers Spark Major Concerns!

By Baptista Research

  • Dollar General’s shares have plummeted after the company slashed its sales and profit forecasts for the full year, highlighting the financial struggles of its lower-income customers.
  • The retailer, which primarily serves rural areas, now expects fiscal 2024 same-store sales growth of 1.0% to 1.6%, down from its previous forecast of 2% to 2.7%.
  • Earnings per share are projected to be between $5.50 and $6.20, significantly lower than the prior estimate of $6.80 to $7.55.

SCLX: Company Sets up Spinoff

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • SCLX is filling a much-needed area of the health care sector, that of developing non-opioid pain relief products.
  • The company already has commercialized products that are proven to improve patients’ lives.
  • The company announced a merger between a SPAC and a Scilex subsidiary that is developing a non-opioid novel injectable corticosteroid, which will set up a spinoff of the combined entity in early 2025.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/35] Henry Hub Rebounds on Hot Weather but Excess Supply Limits Gains

By Suhas Reddy

  • US natural gas prices rose 5.2% for the week ending 30/Aug, driven by warmer weather forecasts and low prices encouraging power generators to favour gas over coal.
  • Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1 from 1.34 the previous week as put volumes dropped by 38.5% WoW, while call volumes declined by 17.5%. 
  • Put OI rose for expirations in Sep, Oct, and Nov, while call OI increased for contracts expiring in Dec, Jan, and Feb. 

Home Depot: Recent Acquisitions & A Focus on the Professional Customer Segment Is Expected To Drive Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • The Home Depot, during its second quarter 2024 earnings, reported modest top-line growth amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment, marked by high interest rates and subdued consumer spending.
  • Sales for the quarter reached $43.2 billion, a slight increase of 0.6% compared to the same period last year.
  • This increment includes contributions from the recent SRS Distribution acquisition, which added approximately $1.3 billion, reflecting around six weeks of activity since the acquisition on June 18.

Galaxy Gaming Inc (GLXZ) – Monday, Jun 3, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Galaxy Gaming, based in Las Vegas, offers a variety of games for casinos and cruise ships worldwide
  • Known for traditional and proprietary games, as well as popular side bets
  • CEO Matt Reback discusses company’s financial success and future plans

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


PetroTal Corp (AIM: PTAL): Potential Reserve Addition

By Auctus Advisors

  • The VS1 sand has produced ~320 bbl/d of 18.6 API oil during a brief test of a sidetrack of Well 20H.
  • The oil gravity is similar to that found in the VS2 reservoir.
  • The VS1 reservoir has not been developed to date as the company has only focused on the VS2 that has much better permeability.

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Daily Brief India: Bajaj Housing Finance, Carraro India Limited, Western Carriers, General Insurance Corp Of India and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Bajaj Housing Finance IPO – Will Trade at a Premium
  • Carraro India Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Western Carriers Pre-IPO-Expanding Through a Combination of Asset-Light Model and Own Infrastructure
  • General Insurance Corp of India OFS – Large One to Digest, and a Potential Overhang to Contend With


Bajaj Housing Finance IPO – Will Trade at a Premium

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) is looking to raise around US$800m in its India IPO.
  • BHF is a non-deposit taking housing finance company engaged in mortgage lending since FY18. Its mortgage products include home loans, loans against property, lease rental discounting and developer financing.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Carraro India Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Carraro India Limited (810618Z IN) is looking to raise about US$216m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, Nuvama and BNP Paribas.
  • Carraro India Limited (CIL), is a technology driven integrated supplier that develops complex engineering products and solutions for its original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers.
  • CIL primarily manufactures axles and transmission systems for agricultural tractors and construction vehicles such as backhoe loaders, soil compactors, cranes, self-loading concrete mixers and small motor graders.

Western Carriers Pre-IPO-Expanding Through a Combination of Asset-Light Model and Own Infrastructure

By Akshat Shah

  • Western Carriers (1489172D IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Western Carriers (India) Limited (WCIL) was the largest private, multimodal, rail focused, 4PL asset-light logistics company in India in terms of container volumes in FY22, as per 1Lattice.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

General Insurance Corp of India OFS – Large One to Digest, and a Potential Overhang to Contend With

By Clarence Chu

  • The GoI is looking to raise up to US$600m from selling its stake in General Insurance Corp Of India (GICRE IN).
  • Earlier in Apr 2024, there were media reports indicating that the GoI planned to offload a 10% stake in the insurer over multiple tranches.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

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Daily Brief China: Midea Group Co Ltd A, PC Partner, China Tower , China Traditional Chinese Medicine, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, GoFintech Innovation, Zai Lab , Atour Lifestyle Holdings, Carote Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Group H Share Listing: AH Discount Views
  • PC Partner: Relocating HQ and Listing to Singapore, 81% of Market Cap Is Cash
  • FXI Rebalance: China Tower (788 HK) Will Replace CICC (3908 HK)
  • China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update- Pre-Conditions Won’t Be “An Obstacle” to the Entire Process
  • China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Adds, Two Deletes, as Expected
  • GoFinTech (290 HK)/Jinhai Medical (2225 HK): Double Bubble Trouble
  • China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): When Falling Knife Turns into Value Investing
  • Zai Lab (9688 HK): Vyvgart Is Not the De-Risking Tool; Future Is Still Uncertain
  • [Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Review]: Retail Business Bigger and Longer than Market Thinks
  • Carote Limited Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Recent Growth Led by International Markets


Midea Group H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

By Arun George


PC Partner: Relocating HQ and Listing to Singapore, 81% of Market Cap Is Cash

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • PC Partner showed a significant improvement in its 1H24 results YoY.
  • The company will be relocating HQ to Singapore and move its primary listing from HK to Singapore. If this move is successful, it will improve AI chips allocation from Nvidia.
  • Why Singapore? PC Partner is preparing itself for a future where China/USA political relationship does not improve.

FXI Rebalance: China Tower (788 HK) Will Replace CICC (3908 HK)

By Brian Freitas


China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update- Pre-Conditions Won’t Be “An Obstacle” to the Entire Process

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We have seen positive progress of the privatization of China TCM, which is still considered an important project on the agenda. CNPGC’s new leadership is very supportive of the deal.
  • The SAMR process has begun. There should be no problem to meet the Pre-Conditions. If the approval process takes more time, Long Stop Date would be extended.
  • Considering China Resources has decided to acquire Tasly, we think the integration of TCM business by CNPGC is expected to accelerate. We remain optimistic and this deal will get up. 

China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Adds, Two Deletes, as Expected

By Brian Freitas


GoFinTech (290 HK)/Jinhai Medical (2225 HK): Double Bubble Trouble

By David Blennerhassett

  • Sanergy (2459 HK), a graphite electrode manufacturer, was added to the MSCI Small-Cap Index on 30th August; and was due to enter the Hang Seng Composite Index on 9th September.
  • However, the SFC announced a concentration warning on the 2nd September. Shares promptly cratered ~98% yesterday (the 3rd September). Expect the HSCI inclusion to now be yanked.
  • This Sanergy debacle should refocus investors on other heavily concentrated stocks, such as Jinhai Medical (2225 HK), in which GoFintech (290 HK) (another heavily concentrated stock) has inexplicably been buying. 

China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): When Falling Knife Turns into Value Investing

By Mohshin Aziz

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CTG) share price on downtrend due to negative sentiment, increased competition, and Chinese being more frugal in their consumption  
  • 2024 and 2025 consensus earnings declined by -2%/-17%, but CTG will deliver +16% YoY earnings growth in 2025. CTG remains a growths stock, a fact we think many investors forget!  
  • We revise our target price to CNY71.3 pegged to 18.5x FY25 PE (1.5 standard deviation below mean). We think the share price decline is overdone and ignores its strong fundamentals.  

Zai Lab (9688 HK): Vyvgart Is Not the De-Risking Tool; Future Is Still Uncertain

By Tina Banerjee

  • Zai Lab (9688 HK) recorded Vyvgart revenue of $10M, $13M, and $23M in 4Q23, 1Q24, and 2Q24, respectively. The company raised 2024 Vyvgart revenue guidance to $80M from $70M earlier.
  • Despite strong momentum from Vyvgart, Zai Lab still has a lot of pain points. Decelerating revenue growth from Zejula is one of them.
  • Due to its in-licensing business model, Zai Lab has lower gross profit margin of 64–65%, compared with ~80% for a typical innovator biotech company.

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Review]: Retail Business Bigger and Longer than Market Thinks

By Eric Wen

  • Atour (ATAT) reported C2Q24 revenue 2.2%/8.3% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP NI 6.8%/12.3% higher than our est./ cons, driven by stronger hotel supply chain sales and better retail efficiency.
  • We keep 2024 revenue growth estimate at 53% YoY vs. the uplift company guidance at 48%-52% YoY. Potential catalysts are stronger off-season travel,old hotel renovation scheme, and new brand launch.
  • We keep TP unchanged at US$36/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.

Carote Limited Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Recent Growth Led by International Markets

By Clarence Chu

  • Carote Ltd (CARO HK) is looking to raise around US$120m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Carote Ltd is a distributor of kitchenware products. Expanding its lineup of products, Carote aims to meet its customers’ varied kitchen scenarios and enhance their culinary experience.
  • We had looked at the firm’s past performance in an earlier note. In this note, we discuss its PHIP updates.

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