All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Hanwha Galleria , XPeng , Ola Electric, MSCI ACWI Index, Choice Hotels Intl, Hilton Grand Vacations, Under Armour, Golf Digest Online, Capri Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Couche-Tard Bid for 7&I (3382) – FEFTA and Economic Security
  • A Tender Offer to Purchase a 17.5% Stake in Hanwha Galleria by Kim Dong-Sun
  • [XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic
  • Ola Electric’s Path to Profitability: Volumes, Cells and PLI
  • Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact
  • Choice Hotels International Inc. – Major Drivers
  • Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.: Strengthening of Japanese Yen and Impact on Hawaiian Market & Other Major Drivers
  • Under Armour Inc.: An Enhanced Retail Strategy and SKU Optimization To Catalyze Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Golf Digest Online (3319 JP) – 2Q Follow-Up
  • Capri Holdings Limited: Expansion of Direct-to-Consumer Channels and E-Commerce! – Major Drivers


Couche-Tard Bid for 7&I (3382) – FEFTA and Economic Security

By Travis Lundy

  • The largest potential inbound cross-border M&A in years – for a national champion no less – gets a lot of press coverage. 
  • This morning, a Nikkei article noted Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) was likely to need “prior approval” from Japanese regulatory authorities for its takeover “the Nikkei has learned.”
  • It wasn’t difficult for the Nikkei to learn that. METI publishes a FEFTA List. 7&i has been on it for years as Type II Designated Business, requiring prior approval.

A Tender Offer to Purchase a 17.5% Stake in Hanwha Galleria by Kim Dong-Sun

By Douglas Kim

  • It was announced that a tender offer to purchase a 17.54% stake in Hanwha Galleria has been launched by Kim Dong-Sun (Vice President at Hanwha Galleria).
  • Tender offer price is 1,600 won per share, which is 22.8% higher than the closing price on 22 August. Tender offer amount is 54.4 billion won. 
  • On 23 August, Hanwha Galleria’s share price is likely to rise close to the tender offer price as many investors believe the tender offer is likely to be successful. 

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic

By Eric Wen

  • XPeng (XPEV) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net income in line, 5.4% worse and 7.5% better than our estimate. 
  • We raised our MONA forecast by 13% but still significantly below XPEV’s guidance. We believe management guidance is overly optimistic;
  • We maintain a SELL rating on the stock and TP unchanged.

Ola Electric’s Path to Profitability: Volumes, Cells and PLI

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Investors seem concerned about poor visibility on Ola Electric’s profitability given its aggressive pricing strategy.
  • Expect increasing production volumes and the resulting benefits of operating leverage to lead to operating profits, likely by next quarter.
  • Integrating in-house manufactured Lithium-ion cells into its two-wheeler EVs from FY2026 and higher Government incentive pay out in FY2025 to drive profit margins further.

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
  • Japan’s TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
  • It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int’l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).

Choice Hotels International Inc. – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Choice Hotels International has portrayed a strong growth trajectory in its latest quarterly result, evidenced by a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA and EPS.
  • The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance, reflecting confidence in its financial outlook and operational strategy.
  • Central to its growth strategy is the expansion of its portfolio of revenue-intense hotels.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.: Strengthening of Japanese Yen and Impact on Hawaiian Market & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Hilton Grand Vacations reported its second-quarter earnings for 2024, revealing mixed results that indicate both challenges and strategic advancements.
  • The quarter’s financials showcased a slowdown in some areas, notably impacted by global economic pressures and internal execution hurdles, leading to the company adjusting its full year guidance downward.
  • Despite these setbacks, the company’s strategic moves, such as the integration of acquisitions and a restructuring of its sales and marketing operations, suggest forward-thinking adjustments aimed at strengthening its market position.

Under Armour Inc.: An Enhanced Retail Strategy and SKU Optimization To Catalyze Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Under Armour’s first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings reflected a blend of strategic advancement and lingering challenges.
  • With Kevin Plank at the helm, the company appears focused on fortifying its branding, signifying a pivot towards a clearer segmentation of their market and a concerted effort to enhance product value rather than volume.
  • Starting with the positive aspects, Under Armour has delineated a path to refine its identity as an athletic brand through its “Protect This House” strategy, aiming to invigorate its connection with athletes and consumers globally.

Golf Digest Online (3319 JP) – 2Q Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • GDO announced 1H FY24/12 consolidated financial results at 15:00 on Thursday 8/8, and it held a results briefing at 16:00 via Zoom webinar, hosted by CEO Ishizaka, COO Yoshikawa and CFO Nakamura.
  • Headline figures were net sales +10.2% YoY, EBITDA -26.9%, the operating loss expanding and profit attributable to owners of parent dropping into loss.
  • While headline numbers on the surface appear to indicate an extremely challenging environment, it is worth noting that the trend for 2Q-only profit improved sequentially at all levels (see red circles in the table below), and management is confident that profit will return to profitability in the 2H as measures to improve GPM and control costs contribute going forward.

Capri Holdings Limited: Expansion of Direct-to-Consumer Channels and E-Commerce! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Capri Holdings Limited recently reported its earnings for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year of 2023.
  • The company saw a revenue increase in high single digits and a mid-single digit rise in earnings per share on a 52- week constant currency basis.
  • Despite not fully meeting initial expectations, there were significant areas of performance strength.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Energy/Materials: SK Innovation, Crude Oil, Copper, Panoro Energy ASA, Murphy Oil Corp, Trigon Metals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • NPS Will Vote Against the Merger Between SK Innovation and SK E&S
  • NPS Effectively Decides to Exercise Appraisal Rights Against SK Innovation: Trading Considerations
  • [ETP 2024/34] Oil Slips on Weak Economic Indicators in US & China; Nat Gas Battles Oversupply
  • Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town
  • Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Reserves Addition in Gabon. Strong Financials
  • Murphy Oil Corporation: Expanded Presence In Vietnam As A Critical Growth Lever!
  • TM: Q1 Financials: Positive OCF & EBITDA


NPS Will Vote Against the Merger Between SK Innovation and SK E&S

By Douglas Kim

  • NPS will vote against the merger between SK Innovation and SK E&S, mainly due to significant concerns about destroying shareholder value (especially for SK Innovation shareholders). 
  • Sustinvest also recommended that institutional investors vote against this merger, citing that the merger ratio between SK Innovation and SK E&S is disadvantageous to SK Innovation’s general shareholders.
  • If NPS exercises its appraisal rights, this could put a knife in the wheel of the M&A merger between SK Innovation and SK E&S. 

NPS Effectively Decides to Exercise Appraisal Rights Against SK Innovation: Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS’s opposition suggests a likely vote against the merger, but if they plan to exercise appraisal rights, they might abstain to preserve that option.
  • NPS typically exercises appraisal rights when the spread exceeds 5%, as seen in past mergers like Celltrion and Samsung. They didn’t act when the spread was below 5%.
  • The key question is whether SK Innovation can boost its stock price to avoid NPS exercising rights. Otherwise, the merger may pass, but the stock could drop significantly.

[ETP 2024/34] Oil Slips on Weak Economic Indicators in US & China; Nat Gas Battles Oversupply

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 16/Aug, US crude inventories dropped by 4.6 mb, exceeding the expected 2 mb drawdown. Gasoline and distillate stocks also declined, surpassing analyst expectations.
  • US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 16/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 26 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • UBS cut its target prices on Halliburton and Schlumberger but raised it for ExxonMobil and Occidental. Jefferies lowered its target price on Chevron.

Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town

By Sameer Taneja

  • After selling its coking coal business to Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), Teck Resources (TECK US) has pivoted to copper as its primary growth driver. 
  • The 7.3 bn CAD cash (20% of Mkt cap) received from the sale of the coal business stake is being used for buybacks, debt repayment, and growth opportunities.  
  • The stock is cheap on an EV-EBITDA basis at 7.5x, but we are not too fond of the business’s low ROCE. 

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Reserves Addition in Gabon. Strong Financials

By Auctus Advisors

  • The 1H24 production and the cash position had been reported previously.
  • Panoro generated ~US$54 mm cash from operations (we expected ~US$48 mm) with a US$22 mm positive working capital movement.
  • At the end of June, current accounts receivable of ~US$72 mm were well above the current payables of ~US$43 mm.

Murphy Oil Corporation: Expanded Presence In Vietnam As A Critical Growth Lever!

By Baptista Research

  • Murphy Oil Corporation reported a solid performance in its second quarter of 2024, reflecting the ongoing execution of its fundamental strategic priorities: Delever, Execute, Explore, and Return.
  • The emphasis has been on consistent debt reduction, operational enhancements, and enriched shareholder value through opportunistic share repurchases and dividends.
  • During this quarter, the company notably repurchased $50 million of senior notes, and it remains on track to meet its long-term debt target of $1 billion.

TM: Q1 Financials: Positive OCF & EBITDA

By Atrium Research

  • Trigon announced its Q1/25 financial results, reporting strong numbers with Q1 being the first full quarter of underground production.
  • TM more than doubled its revenues from the previous quarter ($10M vs. $3.9M) and reported its first positive operating cash flow since starting production.
  • The Company reported an improved adjusted EBITDA of $1.8M and a further decreasing C1 cash cost of $3.23/lb.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Aerospace, SITC International, Full Truck Alliance , Nexans SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Both Hanwha Aerospace Spinoffs Remain in KOSPI 200: Trading Value Gap Between Trading Suspension
  • SITC International (1308 HK): Advancing Amid the Challenging Time
  • Full Truck Alliance Q224 Results: Generally Strong Growth | Attractive Closer to US$7 Per ADS
  • Nexans – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Both Hanwha Aerospace Spinoffs Remain in KOSPI 200: Trading Value Gap Between Trading Suspension

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX announced that both Hanwha Aerospace and the new Hanwha Industrial Solutions will be added to the KOSPI 200.
  • Since 2020, two K200 spinoffs had both companies remain: DL Holdings and DL E&C in January 2021, and SK Telecom and SK Square in November 2021, with notable value increases.
  • This trade isn’t risk-free and requires a sophisticated hedge setup, but the trading opportunities from this flow situation are worth close attention.

SITC International (1308 HK): Advancing Amid the Challenging Time

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • SITC International (1308 HK)‘s management guided for a promising outlook for 2H24, with strong load performance in Jul-Aug, and better long-term contract rates YoY.  
  • Gross margin expanded 4.5pp in 1H24 despite a 5.3% drop in average freight rate, thanks to good cost control with lower chartered-in costs and more self-owned vessels.
  • Net cash increased 195% from end-FY23, and we are confident that its 70% payout ratio can be maintained. Its P/B is still below the 5-year average.

Full Truck Alliance Q224 Results: Generally Strong Growth | Attractive Closer to US$7 Per ADS

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Another set of strong results from YMM, revenue and core earnings both up
  • Need to monitor orders per MAU; reason for decline in Q224 unclear
  • Maintain US$9.45/ADS target price, ADSs are attractive closer to US$7

Nexans – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Nexans’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its “Adequate” Social and Governance scores. The company has a “Strong” score for the Environmental pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Health Care: Eoflow, Innovent Biologics Inc, Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co, Tenax Therapeutics , Quoin Pharmaceuticals , Basilea Pharmaceutica Ag, Cytokinetics Inc, Grifols SA, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Insulet Launches a Patent Lawsuit Against Eoflow in Europe
  • Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio
  • Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Cautiously Optimistic on Growth Prospect Amid Intensifying Competition
  • TENX: 100 Million Capital Raise
  • QNRX: Assessing QRX003 For Multiple Conditions Opening International Netherton Syndrome Clinical Sites
  • Basilea Pharmaceutica – Another Cresemba milestone payment in the bank
  • Cytokinetics Incorporated: Expansion of Aficamten Clinical and Commercial Applications! – Major Drivers
  • Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals: Expanding Clinical Trials & Regulatory Approvals!
  • Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount
  • ARWR: Two Obesity Assets to Enter the Clinic in 2025


Insulet Launches a Patent Lawsuit Against Eoflow in Europe

By Douglas Kim

  • Eoflow announced Insulet had filed an injunction on 3 July against Eoflow and Menarini requesting a ban on the manufacture, sale, distribution, and use of EOPatch in 17 European countries.
  • Given that Eoflow should have reported this event earlier, this is likely to result in further loss of confidence on Eoflow by many investors in the near term. 
  • If Eoflow is able to complete its rights offering (albeit lower amount than proposed), this could boost its chances to become a formidable competitor to Insulet on a global basis. 

Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) Adds to Its Oncology Portfolio

By Avien Pillay

  • Dupert, a drug for the special treatment of non-small cell cancer has been approved by the NMPA.
  • In 2022, China recorded the highest number of new cancer cases, and their exceptional high incidence of smoking is of particular concern.
  • Innovent’s portfolio of nine oncology drugs is very attractive in the biggest cancer market.

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Cautiously Optimistic on Growth Prospect Amid Intensifying Competition

By Tina Banerjee

  • Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) has reported mixed performance in 2Q24, with revenue growing 3% YoY to THB6,331M. However, bottomline growth outpaced the revenue growth.
  • We are cautiously optimistic about the future growth prospect of the company as well as valuation multiple expansion prospect due to intensifying competition in attracting international patients.
  • In recent times, revenue contribution from international patients has not changed much and is hovering around a range of 53–55%, significantly lower than pre-COVID time’s range of 64–67%.

TENX: 100 Million Capital Raise

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Tenax has licensed the calcium sensitizer/K-ATP activator levosimendan and is pursuing approval for an indication in Group 2 Pulmonary Hypertension in the US and Canada.
  • The drug has been approved in over 60 countries with 35 published trials supporting its safety and efficacy and has over 1 million patient exposures.
  • In January 2018 Tenax announced a new indication for Levo and met with the FDA to confirm trial design.

QNRX: Assessing QRX003 For Multiple Conditions Opening International Netherton Syndrome Clinical Sites

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • With a strategy to design products to treat multiple indications, QNRX intends to study QRX003 for several conditions & build a database supporting its efficacy and safety as a treatment for a range of dermatological conditions.
  • The company plans to begin a clinical study of QRX003 in Peeling Skin Syndrome (PSS), a rare autosomal disease that has no approved treatment.
  • By developing its assets for multiple indications, QNRX aims to increase the potential for an expedited regulatory pathway, attain economies of scale on R&D, sales & marketing and other costs and potentially broaden the target market if/when commercial sales launch.

Basilea Pharmaceutica – Another Cresemba milestone payment in the bank

By Edison Investment Research

The uptrend in Cresemba sales in Asia-Pacific and China triggered the receipt of Basilea’s third milestone payment of US$1.25m from Pfizer for the region (in addition to the March and May 2024 milestones). Asia-Pacific and specifically China have strategic importance as China comprises c 20% of the market opportunity for Cresemba. In-market sales for Cresemba remain robust globally and revenues have grown 24% y-o-y to US$489m during the 12 months ending March 2024. We expect Basilea to receive over CHF35m in milestones in H224 and for its overall activity to intensify in the next few weeks with the launch of the first Phase III fosmanogepix trial (in candidemia and invasive candidiasis) and the expected finalisation of a Zevtera US commercial partner, both significant inflection points.


Cytokinetics Incorporated: Expansion of Aficamten Clinical and Commercial Applications! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cytokinetics recently reported their Second Quarter 2024 Earnings, marked by progression in their clinical development programs, particularly focusing on their pipeline’s most advanced candidates, aficamten and omecamtiv mecarbil, in various heart-related conditions.
  • This update provides insights crucial for evaluating the health of the company’s R&D efforts, potential market reach, and overall strategic trajectory, with implications for investment considerations.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals: Expanding Clinical Trials & Regulatory Approvals!

By Baptista Research

  • Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals recently discussed its fiscal 2024 third-quarter performance and provided updates on its drug pipeline and commercial strategies, suggesting a pivotal phase in its growth trajectory.
  • As the pharmaceutical company aims to augment its pipeline to include around 20 clinical or marketed products by 2025, it focuses heavily on the development and potential market launch of its flagship product, plozasiran, targeting familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS) and other conditions associated with high triglycerides.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Brookfield/Grifols: Update & Recap, Spread, Discount

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Bloomberg reported that Brookfield (BN CN) is seeking bank backing for up to €9.5 billion in debt to facilitate a potential take-private acquisition of Grifols SA (GRF SM).
  • Considering a €10.18/share possible offer price (institutionals are seeking €12), the A shares are trading at a 7.3% gross spread and are pricing a 62.5% possibility of deal completion.
  • The preferreds trading at 17.5% discount vs ordinary shares should be favored in case of takeover, with Long B shares/short A shares my preferred way to get involved.

ARWR: Two Obesity Assets to Enter the Clinic in 2025

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On August 8, 2024, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) announced financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 that ended June 30, 2024 and provided a business update.
  • Arrowhead recently presented preclinical data on ARO-INHBE and introduced ARO-ALK7 at its summer seminar on obesity/metabolic disorders.
  • We anticipate both programs entering the clinic in 2025.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Financials: Bank of East Asia, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Srisawad Power 1979, Jafco Co Ltd, Sansiri Public, Kalpataru Limited, Chesapeake Financial Shares In and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • BEA – Far Worse Deterioration in Hong Kong than Other Regions & Sharply Lower HFD Centa City Index
  • Korea’s New Retail Pool Borrow Fee Calculation & Disclosure Rules: Impacts on Flow Trading
  • Asirvad Micro Finance Pre-IPO – Accelerating Profitability Growth but with a Litany of Legal Cases
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 4 Changes Possible; Reference Period Starts on 1st Sep
  • Back to Jafco- Continues to Be in the Right Place and at the Right Time
  • Sansiri – Hyatt Acquires Standard International
  • Kalpataru Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • CPKF: Increasing 2024 and 2025 Estimates


BEA – Far Worse Deterioration in Hong Kong than Other Regions & Sharply Lower HFD Centa City Index

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Data from Bank of East Asia (23 HK) is just out with poor 1H24 results YoY
  • Notable in its release are its Hong Kong overdue exposure by over three months
  • Hong Kong region income is the worst affected by credit costs, this does not seem to be over

Korea’s New Retail Pool Borrow Fee Calculation & Disclosure Rules: Impacts on Flow Trading

By Sanghyun Park

  • The new rule mandates that retail pool fees be tied to the fees paid by institutional borrowers, and this information must be publicly disclosed.
  • This rule ensures faster, more accurate market release of stock-specific borrow fees, which are now tied to actual fees received, replacing the arbitrarily set rates by brokerages.
  • With short-selling resuming next April, this rule could drive new flow trading strategies and significantly influence target screening in the short-selling market.

Asirvad Micro Finance Pre-IPO – Accelerating Profitability Growth but with a Litany of Legal Cases

By Ethan Aw

  • Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (1053198D IN) is looking to raise around US$183m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Asirvad Micro Finance Limited (Asirvad) is a non-banking finance company (NBFC), and a microfinance institution (MFI) offering small loans to low-income women in India.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 24: 4 Changes Possible; Reference Period Starts on 1st Sep

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in December 2024.
  • Currently, we see 4 expected ADDs/DELs but the 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings starts on 1st September and only after that the rankings will become stable. 

Back to Jafco- Continues to Be in the Right Place and at the Right Time

By Rikki Malik

  • Its portfolio of Japanese investments should benefit from the change in investor focus to domestic names.
  • Has shown strong outperformance since the sell-off presaging future relative strength
  • The business itself progressing as planned for increased shareholder returns

Sansiri – Hyatt Acquires Standard International

By Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

  • We maintain an Outperform rating on SIRI, holding a positive view on the sale of hotel management rights to the Hyatt Group, which is favorable to both the firm’s earnings and financial position.
  • SIRI’s fundamental valuation is attractive, while the tactical factors are viewed neutrally. This should help offset the slower EPS growth expected due to the high base in 2023.
  • The 1H24 dividend yield is 4.0% from the DPS of Bt0.07, with the  XD date scheduled for August 28, 2024.

Kalpataru Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Kalpataru Limited (KTARU IN) is looking to raise about US$189m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, JM Fin and Nomura.
  • Kalpataru is an integrated real estate development company involved in activities associated with real estate development, including identification and acquisition of land, planning, designing, execution, sales, and marketing of projects.
  • It is a prominent real estate developer in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and is present across all micro-markets in MMR, as per an Anarock Report.

CPKF: Increasing 2024 and 2025 Estimates

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • We are increasing our diluted EPS estimate for 2024 by $0.11, from $2.19 to $2.30, a 7% gain from 2023’s actual diluted EPS of $2.15 and raising our diluted EPS estimate for 2025 from $2.35 per share to $2.40 per share, a 4% gain over our 2024 estimate.
  • We expect good gains in net interest income in 2024 and 2025 as solid loan growth, estimated at 10% in 2024 and 8% in 2025, will be aided by improving prospects for CPKF’s net interest margin (NIM).
  • We have raised our NIM estimate for 2024 by 13 basis points from 3.32% to 3.45%, down 5 basis from 3.50% in 2023, and for 2025 by 15 basis points from 3.35% to 3.50%, up 5 basis points from our 2024 estimate.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ESG: Cash on Hand Has Built up to a Level Where Small Shareholder Returns Are No Longer Sufficient and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Cash on Hand Has Built up to a Level Where Small Shareholder Returns Are No Longer Sufficient
  • AMS Osram – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Cash on Hand Has Built up to a Level Where Small Shareholder Returns Are No Longer Sufficient

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The increase in net profit from the previous year outpaced the growth in dividends, which increased cash on hand for listed companies to a record high level. 
  • Since the equity ratio of manufacturing sector is over 40% and there’s little room for debt repayment, there’s room for a considerable increase in dividends in conjunction with share repurchases.
  • If free cash flow isn’t used to invest in growth and return profits to shareholders, rather than to pay small dividends to shareholders, cash on hand will continue to increase.

AMS Osram – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess AMS Osram’s ESG as “Strong”, in line with its Social and Governance scores. The Environmental score is “Adequate”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”. 


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Fed Minutes Signal September Rate Cut and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Fed Minutes Signal September Rate Cut
  • Could a Japan “Megaquake” Disrupt Semis?
  • Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu
  • What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?


Ohayo Japan | Fed Minutes Signal September Rate Cut

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks edged higher Wednesday after Federal Reserve minutes strengthened expectations for a September rate cut
  • Japan set a record for foreign visitors in July, with 3.29 million arrivals, driven by a weak yen and summer holiday
  • Japan Tobacco (JT) announced a $2.4 billion acquisition of Vector Group, the fourth-largest U.S. tobacco company

Could a Japan “Megaquake” Disrupt Semis?

By Jim Handy

  • Japan’s Meteorological Agency has issued a warning of an upcoming serious 8-9-point earthquake
  • The expected epicenter is home to at least one dozen semiconductor wafer fabrication plants: “Fabs”
  • While it’s hard to predict earthquakes, this news should be considered when investing in the area.

Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu

By Andrew Jackson

  • Good retailer numbers and outlooks by Target and TJX setting a positive tone for the likes of Mercari on the read for consumer spending.
  • Toll Bros numbers from the day before lifting US Homebuilders should see the likes of Sumitomo Forestry rebound off yesterdays weak price action.
  • Japanese R/E names look increasingly vulnerable to downside ahead of Ueda’s speech tomorrow which should point to a BoJ trajectory for future rate hikes.

What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The assassination of Trump in July has greatly increased the probability of his election as president this year. However, a Trump presidency is not necessarily good for healthcare industry.
  • Trump’s reform in the field of healthcare has two major propositions – One is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain. The other is to reduce drug prices.
  • From a US national security perspective, China’s APIs/CXO would be the segments with the highest sanction risk. China Biotech may also face some headwinds. The risk of “decoupling” further increases.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: Ecom Express Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Ecom Express Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • 99 Speedmart Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation
  • 99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bear Case
  • Bajaj Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Bigger and Faster


Ecom Express Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Ecom Express Limited (1062300D IN) is looking to raise about US$310m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, IIFL Securities, Kotak and UBS.
  • Ecom Express operates a pan-India express logistics network covering first-mile pick-up, mid-mile transportation and last-mile delivery as well as reverse logistics (returns) and fulfilment services (warehousing).
  • According to Redseer, the company had the widest pan-India coverage and in Tier 2+ regions compared to its peers, covering over 27,000 PIN codes, as of March 31, 2024.

99 Speedmart Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation

By Clarence Chu

  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK) is looking to raise US$530m in its Malaysia IPO. The IPO will be a mix of primary and secondary shares.
  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99 Speedmart) operates the “99 Speedmart” chain of mini-market outlets, retailing daily necessities across Malaysia. 
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK), a leading grocery retailer in Malaysia, is seeking to raise US$530 million at RM1.65 per share.
  • In 99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on lacklustre outlet KPIs, indications of margin pressure, significant pre-IPO dividends and a significant secondary offering.

Bajaj Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Bigger and Faster

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) is looking to raise around US$830m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • BHF is a non-deposit taking housing finance company engaged in mortgage lending since FY18. Its mortgage products include home loans, loans against property, lease rental discounting and developer financing.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will undertake a peer comparison.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Xiaomi (1810 HK): 2Q24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Xiaomi (1810 HK): 2Q24, Revenue up by 32%, Electric Vehicle Profit to Follow, Buy
  • TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering?
  • Was it Worth it, Yancoal?
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Rebound Lagging Nvidia; Why TSMC’s ‘Foundry 2.0’ Is Significant
  • SM Entertainment: Disposal of Non Core Assets – SM C&C and KeyEast
  • ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Aug-2024): SE Asia & India semi supply chains deployment
  • Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Show No Major AI Slowdown; Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names Lag Nvidia’s Rebound
  • China East Education (667 HK): Rock Solid Improvements
  • Expedia Group Inc.: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers


Xiaomi (1810 HK): 2Q24, Revenue up by 32%, Electric Vehicle Profit to Follow, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Excluding the new business electrical vehicle, total revenue increased by 23% YoY in 2Q24.
  • Smartphone shipments grew faster than Samsung and Apple in 2Q24.
  • We believe electrical vehicle will bring significant gross profit in following two years.

TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering?

By William Keating

  • TSMC Foundry 2.0 more than doubles its addressable market and resets its market share to 28%, down from the ~60% share it has long enjoyed in the “traditional” foundry market
  • The lion’s share of this new market will come from IDM, a combination of increased outsourcing (e.g. Intel) and new JV deals (e.g. Germany and Japan)
  • Foundry 2.0 reflects the reality of how the semi industry is evolving and it’s the polar opposite of Intel’s IDM 2.0 

Was it Worth it, Yancoal?

By Money of Mine

  • Company had strong half year results with 990 million in operating EBITDA and 420 million NPAT
  • They have 1.55 billion in cash and are debt-free, with majority of revenue from thermal coal production
  • Despite recent 20% drop in share price, company is on track and has good long-term prospects

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan Rebound Lagging Nvidia; Why TSMC’s ‘Foundry 2.0’ Is Significant

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan Tech Stocks Rally, But Lag Nvidia’s Massive Rally; Prepare for Nvidia, Dell, HP Results Next Week
  • Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Show No Major AI Slowdown; Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names Lag Nvidia’s Rebound 
  • TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering? Why It Is Significant

SM Entertainment: Disposal of Non Core Assets – SM C&C and KeyEast

By Douglas Kim

  • On 21 August, SM Entertainment announced that it will sell its non-core assets including its controlling stakes in SK C&C and KeyEast.
  • The combined sales amount could be about 110 billion won or more, representing 7% or more of SM Entertainment’s market cap. 
  • Sale of SM C&C and KeyEast is likely to have a positive impact on SM Entertainment by selling its non-core assets and improving its balance sheet for higher shareholder returns.

ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Headline numbers for ZTO in Q224 were +10% Revenue, +12% EBITDA
  • But gross margin in core express segment fell, as did Operating Cash Flow
  • ZTO left guidance unchanged for FY24; we recommend investors AVOID it

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Aug-2024): SE Asia & India semi supply chains deployment

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • SE Asia & India deploying semi supply chains for efficiency & cost reduction, with focus shifting to automotive & mobile ventures.
  • Taiwan leveraging strong semiconductor industry to attract foreign students & enhance industry leadership.
  • Wiwynn suing Musk’s X over unpaid server bills, UK reassessing semiconductor strategy amid US & China influence. Apple’s Foxconn to manufacture iPhone Pro in India, AMD entering AI market with $4.9 billion investment. TSMC building EUR10B fab in Dresden to boost semiconductor industry.

Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Show No Major AI Slowdown; Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names Lag Nvidia’s Rebound

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Hon Hai’s Latest Key Take Aways — No Slowdown for AI Server or Mobile Demand Indicated
  • Zhen Ding — Delivers Higher Than Expected 2Q24 Growth; No Indication of AI Server or Mobile Slowdown
  • Taiwan AI Supply Chain Names Have Lagged Nvidia’s Massive Rebound Since August 9th

China East Education (667 HK): Rock Solid Improvements

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China East Education (667 HK)‘s 1H24 result is impressive with a 58% YoY increase in adjusted net profit. Good cost control is a key contributing factor. 
  • Profitability has improved in all business segments. Its strategy to focus on higher-value courses has led to further improvement in annualised tuition per student. 
  • The 1H24 result equals 68% of the full-year consensus, implying an upside in market expectations. Its net cash, at 35% of market capitalisation, is unmatched by peers.

Expedia Group Inc.: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Expedia Group, in its second-quarter 2024 earnings, exhibited a dual-faced performance characterized by significant achievements and emerging challenges that mirror the broader complexities of the travel industry.
  • The management has focused on revitalizing core brands, particular emphasis on enhancing execution within the company’s consumer segment, and fine-tuning their long-term strategic direction.
  • Under her leadership, Expedia Group has seen a robust growth in room nights and gross bookings indicating a strong recovery trajectory from previous downturns.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands
  • Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger
  • Eoflow: Rights Offering of 82 Billion Won and [Medtronic & Eoflow – Don’t You Forget About Me]
  • Logisteed/KKR Bigly Bid for Alps Logistics (9055) Goes Live Tomorrow. Still A Shocking Multiple
  • LG Electronics’ Value-Up Disclosure Today: Impact on Initial Flow Sizing for the Value-Up Index
  • Trading Situation Arising from Local Pensions’ Unusual Buying of DB HiTek
  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes
  • TCM (570 HK): Profit Warning Is No Biggie
  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P500 Sep 24 Rebal: Palantir, Apollo, Workday Racing for Mega$ Flows


JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement

By Brian Freitas

  • Media reports indicate that Walmart (WMT US) is looking to sell 144.5m shares of JD.com (JD US) to raise up to US$3.74bn. That would be substantially all of its stake.
  • There will be passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares and could absorb around 12% of the placement shares.
  • There will be no passive buying from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII trackers in the short-term. An increase in CCASS holdings should result in passive buying in December.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

By Arun George

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes. 
  • The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM’s profits or prospects.
  • If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote. 

Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 22 May, global travel outfit Webjet (WEB AU)  announced it was exploring the separation of its two divisions – Webjet and Webjet B2C – via a demerger. 
  • If the demerger is implemented, shareholders will receive one Webjet B2C share for every Webjet share; plus retain their existing shares in Webjet (to be renamed WEB Travel Group).
  • A demerger booklet has been dispatched, with a 17th September vote on the in-specie distribution. If approved, WEB Travel (ex-entitlement) and Webjet B2C commence trading on the 23rd September.  

Eoflow: Rights Offering of 82 Billion Won and [Medtronic & Eoflow – Don’t You Forget About Me]

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 21 August, Eoflow (294090 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 9.1 million new shares, representing share dilution of 23%.
  • Based on the expected rights offering issue price of 9,040 won, the company is expected to raise 82.2 billion won in this capital raise. 
  • Eoflow has monthly cash burn rate of about 3.3 billion won. If the rights offering is successful, it would have adequate capital resources for about a couple of years. 

Logisteed/KKR Bigly Bid for Alps Logistics (9055) Goes Live Tomorrow. Still A Shocking Multiple

By Travis Lundy

  • The Logisteed/KKR entity received its approvals between the last week of July and this past week, and told Alps Logistics (9055 JP) it wanted to launch its tender 22 August.
  • It will do so. Approvals were reasonably quick (as expected) and the Special Committee and Board decided nothing material had changed. No reason to change their opinion.
  • This is still a HUGE price. And everyone will be out by mid-October if they want. This is an easy deal. And a GIGANTIC win for minorities.

LG Electronics’ Value-Up Disclosure Today: Impact on Initial Flow Sizing for the Value-Up Index

By Sanghyun Park

  • LG Electronics aims for 7% growth, a 7x EV/EBITDA multiple, and a ₩1,000 DPS with a 25% payout ratio, likely disclosing details by late October or early November.
  • LG Electronics’ value-up disclosure highlights major non-financial companies’ participation before the value-up index launch, driven by regulatory pressure and concerns about index inclusion.
  • Samsung and Hyundai are likely to disclose value-up plans by early September, prompting an upward revision of flow size predictions for the value-up index launch.

Trading Situation Arising from Local Pensions’ Unusual Buying of DB HiTek

By Sanghyun Park

  • From early June until yesterday, local pension funds have purchased nearly 4% of DB HiTek’s SO. This places DB HiTek in a dominant first position in their net buying list.
  • The timing of local pension funds beginning to buy DB HiTek coincidentally aligns with May 22, when DB Inc was requested by the KFTC to transition into a holding company.
  • Focus on potential price impact from DB Inc.’s buying and value-up index inflows. Considering a relative overweight in DB HiTek may be strategic despite some risk.

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices in September.
  • Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/ASX 300.
  • The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.

TCM (570 HK): Profit Warning Is No Biggie

By David Blennerhassett

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) flagged a 60-70% drop in its 1H24E net profit versus 1H23, due to reduced sales/profit of TCM concentrate, bad debt provisions, and remedial taxes. 
  • MAC triggers? No – Sinopharm won’t exercise such right, even if one was ostensibly triggered. I’d be surprised if Sinopharm wasn’t fully aware of TCM’s underlying operations. 
  • Get involved on any dips today. Trading wide at a 11.7%/38.7% gross/annualised spread, assuming Dec-end payment.

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P500 Sep 24 Rebal: Palantir, Apollo, Workday Racing for Mega$ Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in September 2024. There are also several live M&A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars