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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jun 25
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Square , Shinhan Financial, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, DH Shipbuilding, Samyang Comtech, SK Hynix and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Fresh Low-PBR Policy Color Hitting the Local Tape Today
  • Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Clean-Up Trade but Stock Is at All Time-Highs
  • Kospi200: Where Implied Vol Stands After 33% Surge
  • DH Shipbuilding IPO Preview
  • Samyang Comtech IPO Valuation Analysis
  • HBM Should Be as Attractive an Investment as Nvidia or TSMC but the Stocks Don’t Show That
  • Kospi200: Elevated Returns, Historical Extremes and Optionality Opportunity

Fresh Low-PBR Policy Color Hitting the Local Tape Today

By Sanghyun Park

  • The ruling party’s KOSPI 5,000 task force is now eyeing low PBR names with talk of direct penalties — a sharper shift from the prior admin’s soft-touch value-up approach.
  • Low PBR penalties may bypass the Assembly, fast-tracked via KRX or enforcement rule tweaks — rollout could follow swiftly post commercial code passage, possibly within 2–3 months.
  • Market’s zeroing in on low PBR, high ROE large caps — with 0.8x flagged as the penalty line, 56 KRW 1T+ names screen as potential re-rating plays.

Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Clean-Up Trade but Stock Is at All Time-Highs

By Sumeet Singh

  • Affinity Equity Partners is looking to raise around US$425m via selling 1.9% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).
  • Affinity had sold half of its stake earlier in 2024, when the company witnessed a number of selldowns in 1H24.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Kospi200: Where Implied Vol Stands After 33% Surge

By John Ley

  • Kospi200 posted a strong weekly gain, advancing every day and extending a powerful rally off the April lows.
  • The percentage of positive trading days since early April reflects strong momentum.
  • A divergence is emerging, with implied volatility no longer reacting to spot moves as before.

DH Shipbuilding IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • DH Shipbuilding is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSPI in August. DH Shipbuilding would be the second largest IPO in Korea after LG CNS so far this year.
  • The IPO price range is 42,000 won to 50,000 won per share. At the high end of the IPO price range, it could raise as much as 500 billion won.
  • The bankers used four companies including HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Heavy Industries, and HD Hyundai Mipo as comps for DH Shipbuilding. 

Samyang Comtech IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our comparable companies valuation analysis suggests implied market cap of 557 billion won or target price of 13,187 won per share.
  • This represents a 71% upside from the high end of the IPO price range (7,700 won per share). Given the excellent upside, we have a Positive view of this IPO. 
  • One could argue that valuation discount on Samyang Comtech may be too conservative mainly due to higher sales growth, ROE, and operating margins of Samyang Comtech relative to the comps.

HBM Should Be as Attractive an Investment as Nvidia or TSMC but the Stocks Don’t Show That

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Nvidia, AMD launch a new GPU every 2 years. At each generation, higher performance manufacturing (TSMC) and HBM (higher density, higher speed, thinner layers). Hence, cost increase at each generation. 
  • Price and volumes are negotiated 1 year ahead. TSMC, SK Hynix expect AI / HBM revenues to double in 2025. Expect another 50-60% in 2026. 
  • Why HBM attracts less interest than Foundry (TSMC) or Design (AMD, AVGO, Nvidia)? Mostly, investor still think this is a cyclical business – HBM isn’t.

Kospi200: Elevated Returns, Historical Extremes and Optionality Opportunity

By John Ley

  • We assess whether recent returns have been extreme and put yesterday’s sharp rally in context.
  • The evolution of volatility following past extreme states is examined.
  • Rationale for using optionality in this stretched price environment is outlined.

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 20th): Advantest and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 20th): Advantest, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec
  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 20th): SK Hynix, Skc, Hanwha Solutions, Kepco E&C

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 20th): Advantest, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 20th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,331m.
  • We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Skylark, Isuzu Motors, Softbank, Joyful Honda, Nippon Steel, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial.

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jun 20th): SK Hynix, Skc, Hanwha Solutions, Kepco E&C

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Jun 20th. The aggregated short interest was USD8.2bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in SK Hynix, Skc, Hanwha Solutions, Kepco E&C, Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, Meritz Financi, Alteogen, Daewoo Shipbuilding, Korzinc.

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief United States: Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, GQG Partners , Fortive , Base Oil, Copper, MetaVia, Viomi Technology Co Ltd, Crude Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
  • S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
  • Fortive Spins Off Ralliant: Big US and Global Index Implications Ahead
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 23 June
  • Ivanhoe’s Massive Guide Down And Copper Supply Impacts
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 23 June
  • MTVA: DA-1241 in Combination with Efruxifermin Shows Additive Hepatoprotective Effects in Mouse MASH Model
  • VIOT: Viomi hits a few speed bumps in the road. Adjusting our valuation target to 4.00
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/25] WTI Posted Gain Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and Market Swings
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 23 June

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in September 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.

S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

By Brian Freitas

  • S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
  • The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
  • We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.

Fortive Spins Off Ralliant: Big US and Global Index Implications Ahead

By Harry Kalfas

  • Fortive (FTV US) to spin off its Precision Technologies segment, under the name “Ralliant”.
  • Key details on dates, transaction rationale, structure and estimated market capitalisation of the spin-off company.
  • Significant index implications ahead, across US and Global indexes, on an intra-quarter basis.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 23 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils price differentials fall sharply relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices in June 2025 following surge in crude oil prices.
  • Speed and size of fall in base oils margins reflects more the surge in crude oil prices rather than sudden, unexpected change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Lack of any sudden, unexpected change in supply-demand fundamentals could support reversion of base oils margins closer to their higher levels in early-June 2025 before their slump in recent weeks.

Ivanhoe’s Massive Guide Down And Copper Supply Impacts

By Sameer Taneja

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 23 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils price-premium to competing/feedstock prices extends fall to five-month low.
  • Lower margins coincide with improving supply in Asia as more plant-maintenance draws to a close.
  • Improving supply and seasonal slowdown in demand could curb refiners’ leverage to target higher prices to reverse recent drop in margins.

MTVA: DA-1241 in Combination with Efruxifermin Shows Additive Hepatoprotective Effects in Mouse MASH Model

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On June 21, 2025, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) announced the presentation of preclinical data for DA-1241, the company’s novel GPR119 agonist, that showed hepatoprotective effects when administered in combination with Efruxifermin, a fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) analogue, in a mouse model of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH).
  • The results were presented in a poster session at the American Diabetes Association 85th Scientific Sessions.
  • The data showed that 94% of mice receiving the combination therapy achieved a =2-point improvement in the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score and immunohistochemistry revealed significantly reduced inflammatory and fibrotic gene expression in the liver.

VIOT: Viomi hits a few speed bumps in the road. Adjusting our valuation target to 4.00

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Viomi recently launched a new filtration system that produces mineral water-like output, which could be a differentiated product in the market, enabling Viomi to gain a share in an increasingly crowded filtration market.
  • The company’s inability to file a timely 20-F with the SEC, combined with a recent change in auditors, will likely raise concerns among investors.
  • Viomi’s strong balance sheet could enable it to pursue multiple growth strategies (expansion, new products, M&A) over the next 3-5 years.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/25] WTI Posted Gain Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and Market Swings

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures picked up by 1.2% for the week ending 20/Jun, marking its third straight weekly gain. The uptrend was due to the Israel-Iran conflict.
  • The U.S. rig count fell by one to 554. The oil rig count fell by one to 438, while gas rigs dropped by two to 111.
  • WTI OI PCR fell to 0.87 on 20/Jun compared to 0.89 on 13/Jun. Call OI fell by 8.9% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.4%.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 23 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand could get support from higher crude oil prices that curb prospect of fall in base oils prices.
  • Even so, expectations of ready availability of supplies, combined with seasonal slowdown in lube consumption in coming weeks, likely to incentivize buyers to maintain low stocks.
  • Buyers face ongoing challenge of balancing expectations of weak fundamentals with repercussions of higher crude oil prices and risk of weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Thakral Corp, Singapore Post, Moneymax Financial Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year
  • SingPost (SPOST SP): More Non-Core Divestments – Slowly But Surely
  • 10 in 10 with MoneyMax Financial Services – Modernising an old trade

Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year

By Brian Freitas

  • Gemlife (GLF AU) is looking to raise A$750m in a primary offering, valuing the company at A$1.58bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 3 July.
  • The Puljich family and Thakral Corp (THK SP) are escrowed on their shares till mid 2026 at the earliest. 
  • Gemlife (GLF AU) could be added to global indexes in November and December this year, but S&P/ASX 300 Index inclusion could take place only in March 2026.

SingPost (SPOST SP): More Non-Core Divestments – Slowly But Surely

By David Blennerhassett

  • After selling its Aussie-based logistics ops earlier this year, Singapore Post (SPOST SP) continues to divest non-core assets and businesses.
  • The latest is the sale and leaseback of 10 Housing & Development Board shophouses, which could net S$50mn. 
  • SPOST has declared a S$0.09/share special dividend from the Aussie sale. Shareholders will vote on the dividend at the AGM on the 23rd July.  

10 in 10 with MoneyMax Financial Services – Modernising an old trade

By Geoff Howie

  • MoneyMax Financial Services achieved a record profit after tax of S$41.6 million in FY24, a 65.4% increase.
  • Revenue grew 36.5% to S$390.1 million, driven by a 36.0% increase in gold and luxury items sales.
  • Pawnbroking revenue rose 47.3% to S$94.3 million, attributed to higher interest income from increased receivables.

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief Australia: Greatland Gold Plc, Region RE and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
  • Region (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) – Trade Exit and Take Profit

Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

By Brian Freitas

Region (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) – Trade Exit and Take Profit

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) and Region (RGN AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
  • Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
  • Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: 20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • 20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)
  • As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.
  • We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fresh Low-PBR Policy Color Hitting the Local Tape Today and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Fresh Low-PBR Policy Color Hitting the Local Tape Today
  • Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year
  • SingPost (SPOST SP): More Non-Core Divestments – Slowly But Surely
  • Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion
  • Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO
  • Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Scheme Vote on 18 July for a Below Net Cash Offer
  • Dickson Concept (113 HK): 18th July Vote On Poon’s Low-Balled Offer

Fresh Low-PBR Policy Color Hitting the Local Tape Today

By Sanghyun Park

  • The ruling party’s KOSPI 5,000 task force is now eyeing low PBR names with talk of direct penalties — a sharper shift from the prior admin’s soft-touch value-up approach.
  • Low PBR penalties may bypass the Assembly, fast-tracked via KRX or enforcement rule tweaks — rollout could follow swiftly post commercial code passage, possibly within 2–3 months.
  • Market’s zeroing in on low PBR, high ROE large caps — with 0.8x flagged as the penalty line, 56 KRW 1T+ names screen as potential re-rating plays.

Gemlife (GLF AU): Index Inclusions Start Later This Year

By Brian Freitas

  • Gemlife (GLF AU) is looking to raise A$750m in a primary offering, valuing the company at A$1.58bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 3 July.
  • The Puljich family and Thakral Corp (THK SP) are escrowed on their shares till mid 2026 at the earliest. 
  • Gemlife (GLF AU) could be added to global indexes in November and December this year, but S&P/ASX 300 Index inclusion could take place only in March 2026.

SingPost (SPOST SP): More Non-Core Divestments – Slowly But Surely

By David Blennerhassett

  • After selling its Aussie-based logistics ops earlier this year, Singapore Post (SPOST SP) continues to divest non-core assets and businesses.
  • The latest is the sale and leaseback of 10 Housing & Development Board shophouses, which could net S$50mn. 
  • SPOST has declared a S$0.09/share special dividend from the Aussie sale. Shareholders will vote on the dividend at the AGM on the 23rd July.  

Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

By Brian Freitas

Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

By Brian Freitas

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Scheme Vote on 18 July for a Below Net Cash Offer

By Arun George

  • Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)’s IFA opines that the controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) at HK$7.20 to be fair and reasonable. The vote is on 18 July. 
  • A low AGM minority participation rate and quiet retail forums are helpful. However, the offer is below the net cash, and Dickson is cash generative on an underlying basis. 
  • Dickson shares traits similar to those of the Goldlion and Soundwill deal breaks, which showed that low-ball offers can be blocked. This situation warrants a safety-first approach.

Dickson Concept (113 HK): 18th July Vote On Poon’s Low-Balled Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 29th April, Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)‘s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding (now) 65.77%, tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held.
  • The family offered HK$7.20/share (best & final). That compared to DC’s net cash (as at 31st Mar 2025) of HK$6.92/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$1.92/share.
  • The Scheme Document’s now out, with a Court Meeting on the 18th July, and expected payment around the 12th August. The IFA (Platinum) says “fair & reasonable”. It is not.

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Plunging Oil Prices and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Plunging Oil Prices
  • Iran-Israel Conflict’s Impact : India’s Rice Exporters Under Pressure
  • Thematic Report: Wires & Cables Industry~ Exponential Capex Meeting Demand, Key Players to Benefit
  • Global Oil Crisis: How the Iran-Israel War May Disrupt India’s Energy and Economic Stability?
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly Housing Booms and Busts…

Ohayo Japan | Plunging Oil Prices

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks +1% as easing geopolitical tensions and plunging oil prices boosted sentiment.
  • Fuji Media Holdings will hold its Annual General Meeting on June 25 to vote on appointing 11 directors
  • Krafton, a major Korean game company, will acquire the Japanese advertising agency ADK for 75 billion yen from Bain Capital.

Iran-Israel Conflict’s Impact : India’s Rice Exporters Under Pressure

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India’s rice exports are 80% dependent on the Gulf region, with the possibility of shutdown of SoH and Iran as a key buyer, exposing the sector to high conflict risk.
  • 100,000 tonnes of Basmati rice are stranded; freight costs surged, and INR 1,500-2,000 crore in payments are stuck, causing major financial strain. 
  • India is developing Chabahar Port for alternative routes and actively pursuing market diversification and government support schemes for resilience.

Thematic Report: Wires & Cables Industry~ Exponential Capex Meeting Demand, Key Players to Benefit

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s Wires & Cables sector is doubling by FY29 with a major 80% capex surge in FY26, driven by infrastructure and exports. 
  • Despite robust supply growth, a significant INR 177.3 billion demand-supply gap by FY30 indicates strong absorption. 
  • Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) leads with high ROIC and growth, while Havells India (HAVL IN) and Apar Industries (APR IN) offer strong capex-driven expansion for investors.

Global Oil Crisis: How the Iran-Israel War May Disrupt India’s Energy and Economic Stability?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The Iran-Israel conflict intensified, causing oil prices to surge over 20% due to geopolitical risks and Strait of Hormuz fears.
  • India faces significant risk, as 38% of its oil and 52% of LNG imports rely critically on the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Despite short-term volatility, substantial OPEC+ spare capacity suggests long-term oil prices may stabilize around $70/barrel.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly Housing Booms and Busts…

By Water Tower Research

  • The US enters the war with Iran, bombing multiple nuclear sites, while trade policy uncertainty continues.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index gained 0.2% and the Home Goods Retailers Index was up 2.8%, while the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index fell 2.0%.
  • The broader indices were also mixed, with the S&P 500 and DJ 30 down 0.2%, while the R2K gained 0.1%.

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Amman Mineral Internasional and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Impact of Benchmark Change – Update

By Brian Freitas

  • The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
  • The benchmark change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.15bn.
  • The flow and turnover numbers will change following constituent and capping changes for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the September rebalance.

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Jun 25
0

Daily Brief Utilities: Contact Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

Contact Energy/Manawa Energy: Index Flows as Deal Nears Completion

By Brian Freitas

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