Smartkarma Daily Briefs

For the week ending 17/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
For the week ending 11/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 16 Bcf, which was lower than analyst expectations of a 24 Bcf increase.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.93 on 17/Apr compared to 0.95 on 11/Apr. Call OI increased by 2.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 0.3%.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April

By Iain Pocock

Asia’s base oils demand could face more marked pressure as expectations of softer supply-demand fundamentals coincide with concern about economic slowdown and impact of US tariffs.
Uncertainty about timing, size and impact of US tariffs adds to blenders’ incentive to maintain lower stocks.
High base oils prices relative to feedstock and gasoil prices and relative to other regions add to incentive to hold back.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/16] WTI Rebounds on Improved Trade Outlook and Strong U.S. Demand

WTI futures rose 4.1% for the week ending 17/Apr, driven primarily by U.S.-China trade talks and falling U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories.
The U.S. rig count rose by two to 585. The oil rig count rose by one to 481, while gas rigs also grew by one to 96.
WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.81 on 17/Apr from 0.80 on 11/Apr. Call OI decreased by 13% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.9%.

NVX: Believe Current Trade Situation Highlights Need for Local Supply Chain for Battery Materials

By Zacks Small Cap Research

NVX believes its strategy aligns with the administration’s goal to secure critical mineral supply chains and support domestic manufacturing.
Its existing Riverside plant – where production capacity has been pre-sold via multiple offtake agreements – is in Tennessee and NVX plans to construct a 2nd production facility in the state, recently obtaining approval and expected tax credits toward this project.
Each of NVX’s three operating units is expected to play an important role in its development & growth, as NVX leverages proprietary R&D & patented technology to develop critical materials for the battery sector.

Soluna Holdings, Inc: Project Ellen Will Put Another 100 MW Wind- Driven Data Center in Texas

By Water Tower Research

Soluna is on a mission to make renewable energy a global superpower using computing as a catalyst.
The company designs, develops, and operates digital infrastructure that transforms surplus renewable energy into global computing resources.
Soluna’s pioneering data centers are strategically co-located with wind, solar, or hydroelectric power plants to support high performance computing applications including Bitcoin mining, Generative AI, and other compute-intensive applications.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief India: Swiggy, Maharashtra Seamless, Jubilant Agri and Consumer Products, Gensol Engineering, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, NIFTY Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion
MSL: High ROCE, Strong Moat – Rides Energy Capex Surge
Event Driven: Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products Demerger- Next Value Creator from the Bhartia Group?
India’s Biggest Small-Cap Shell Game
Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India
NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Improved Risk Sentiment & Truncated Week Cause Risk-Premia Compression

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.

MSL: High ROCE, Strong Moat – Rides Energy Capex Surge

By Rahul Jain

Market leader with 55% share in seamless pipes, Rs2,400 Cr net cash, and stable Rs15,000–17,000/ton EBITDA backed by strong oil & gas demand.
Efficient capital allocator delivering 20%+ ROCE, with consistent insider buying reflecting high promoter confidence.
26% profit CAGR over 5 years, yet trades at ~12x P/E, offering value in a structurally growing industry.

Event Driven: Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products Demerger- Next Value Creator from the Bhartia Group?

Separation of fertilizer division enables sharper valuation for adhesives, removing drag from losses and unlocking pure-play growth potential.
High growth with underpriced products; margin expansion likely as brand strength builds, closing gap with Pidilite and Jyoti Resins.
Once loss-making agri business now EBIT-positive; post-demerger focus may revive segment and surprise on valuations.

India’s Biggest Small-Cap Shell Game

The Mahadev Betting Scam exposed the infiltration of illegal gambling money into the stock market, manipulating small-cap stocks through offshore shell companies and pump-and-dump strategies.
This scandal demonstrates how vulnerable markets are to operator-driven speculation, leading to artificial stock price surges, which mislead investors and undermine market integrity, creating systemic risks.
The episode emphasizes the need for heightened due diligence, transparency, and scrutiny of foreign portfolio investors, encouraging investors to be more cautious of unexplained stock movements and shell company involvement.

Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India

By Vinod Nedumudy

Farmers say RRII 400 clone series performs below par
RRII Head rejects charges, tells farmers to follow guidance
Kerala farmers demand introduction of GM crops

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Improved Risk Sentiment & Truncated Week Cause Risk-Premia Compression

By Sankalp Singh

Improved risk sentiment & holiday truncated week cause compression of risk premia. Monthly IVs fell over -5.0 vol-points over the 3-day session to close at 14.2%.
Vol-Regime continues to stay in “High & Up” vol-state. Stabilization in IVs & RVs required for switch to “High & Down”. Extreme Backwardation of the Vol-curve has now subsided
Tactical Implications: (1) Negative Gamma strategies have been battered. Avoid allocation to these while “High & Up” vol-state prevails.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief China: BYD, NetEase , Dada Nexus , Baidu , ENN Energy, MGM China Holdings, Shandong Fengxiang, Hang Seng Index, Chiyoda Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$470mn One-Way Flows Expected
Dada Nexus (DADA US): Takeaways from the 13E-3 Filing
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$317mn One-Way in June; Three Changes Likely in September
ENN Energy (2688 HK): Privatisation Progressing Well Ahead
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Shandong Fengxiang (9977.HK) Privatization – Long-Term Investors May Be Unhappy with the Offer Price
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols
Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Apr-2025): Mapletree sells Scotland student housing.

BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result

By Ming Lu

The growth rate of sales volume slowed down in March 2025.
Geely’s sales volume reached 46% of BYD’s in 1Q25, compared to 23% in 2024.
We set a downside of 18% and a price target of HK$300 for the next twelve months.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$1.53bn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 7.4%.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$470mn One-Way Flows Expected

The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$470mn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 4.3%.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): Takeaways from the 13E-3 Filing

By Arun George

Dada Nexus (DADA US) has filed the 13E-3 relating to the binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
The 13E-3 filing provides more details on the price negotiations, required regulatory approvals and IFA valuation. Crucially, no Chinese regulatory approvals are required.
The completion conditions are low-risk. At last close and for an end-September payment, the gross/annualised spread is 5.4%/12.1% (including the US$0.05 ADS cancellation fee).

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$317mn One-Way in June; Three Changes Likely in September

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in September 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Privatisation Progressing Well Ahead

By Osbert Tang, CFA

ENN Energy (2688 HK) is not required to submit a merger control filing to the SAMR, suggesting it is making a step ahead in meeting the pre-conditions.
The use of onshore bank loans and cash balance as a refinancing source and consideration payment will lower financing costs, boosting the value of ENN Natural Gas H-share.
The current share price is 9.3 and 17.7% below the low-bound and high-bound of our estimated value range. It is also less vulnerable to the current tariff war.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Adani Ports
In the US last Thursday, March housing starts came in below estimates at negative 11.4% m-o-m (-5.4% e / 9.8% revised p) to an annualised 1.32 mn units (1.42 mn e / 1.49 mn revised p), amid high inventory levels and uncertainty over building-material costs.
That said, building permits rose 1.6% m-o-m (-0.6% e / -1.0% p) to an annualised 1.48 mn units (1.45 mn e / 1.46 mn p).

Shandong Fengxiang (9977.HK) Privatization – Long-Term Investors May Be Unhappy with the Offer Price

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Based on our forecast, growth may be under pressure in 2025, but would recover in 2026/2027.The Cancellation Price is attractive for investors who want to cash out in short term.
Some long-term investors may hope to see an improvement in Fengxiang’s fundementals and long-term performance after PAG/Abu Dhabi Investment step in. Their attitude may bring uncertainties to the privatization.
The business logic of PAG is not a simple financial investment, but a higher pursuit. Fengxiang is a high-quality asset for PAG.Share Alternative Offer could help increase the success rate

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols

By John Ley

A noticeable shift in tone this week, with participation broadening and price action turning constructive.
Implied vols declined across most names, unwinding last week’s spike but still sitting above historical medians.
Call activity bounced back, and the Put/Call ratio suggestive of less defensiveactivity.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Apr-2025): Mapletree sells Scotland student housing.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Mapletree, a real estate firm, has sold Scottish student housing to a Dutch fund manager, expanding its international portfolio.
Shanghai office rents have decreased for the 12th consecutive quarter, reflecting a downward trend in the local real estate market.
Central Tokyo office rents have increased due to rising construction costs, impacting rates for new supply and attracting investor interest.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief Japan: GMO Internet, Sanrio, Adastria Co Ltd, Chugai Pharmaceutical, Nikkei 225, Suzuki Motor, D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc., TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float
Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound
Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well
Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 14 – 18): Vol Unwinds, Nikkei Rebounds and USD Cracks
ECM Weekly (22 Apr 2025) – Suzuki, Zenergy, Chagee, Duality, Manycore, Horizon, Giant Bio, TV Asahi
D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) 4576 JP – Full Report
The Bigger Issue than the Lack of Higher Compensation for Outside Board Directors Is…

GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float

Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP) has become GMO Internet as of 1 January 2025. On that day, it merged with the “internet infrastructure business” of GMO Internet (9449 JP).
It was a kind of reverse takeover – a backdoor listing – and it on 24-Dec-2024, it was announced GMO Internet would move from TSE Standard to TSE Prime end-Jan2025.
The stock is +300% since then. Why? A squeeze. Share count increase? 15x. Float share increase? Zero. Resulting Real World Float? 1.24% of shares out and about to shrink.

Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s stock price dropped following the placement announcement in November. Then there was a rally in the stock amid increased volatility.
The placement resulted in an increase in free float and the move higher in the stock could lead to Sanrio (8136 JP) being added to a global index in May.
There is positioning in the stock but a lot of that appears to have been taken off in the last month. The stock could move higher depending on global cues.

Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Adastria’s “5th CHANGE” outlines a strategic pivot from specialty retail to a platform model aimed at scaling across brands, categories, and geographies while navigating domestic headwinds and evolving consumer behaviors.
While Adastria Co Ltd (2685 JP)’s narrative emphasizes transformation, actual targets for user growth and GMV expansion appear modest, suggesting limited operational changes.
Despite mixed views on the mid-term plan, we remain optimistic on Adastria. Gross margin normalization could drive meaningful OP upside, potentially surpassing mid-term plan targets.

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well

By Tina Banerjee

Eli Lilly & Co (LLY US) has recently announced positive topline Phase 3 results for orforglipron, the GLP 1 RA drug candidate they licensed from Chugai Pharma in 2018.
At the top dose, patients lost 7.3 kg of the 90.2 kg they weighed at the start of the trial, bettering Ozempic’s trial results.
Once approved and commercialized, orforglipron should provide a long-term revenue visibility for Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) through milestone and royalty receipts from Lilly.

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 14 – 18): Vol Unwinds, Nikkei Rebounds and USD Cracks

By John Ley

Nikkei rebounded and volatility eased meaningfully – implied vol giving back much of last week’s spike.
USD/JPY softened alongside a broader break in DXY, raising questions about the depth of demand for USD assets.
Option volumes dropped, and Put activity held steady with no clear directional tilt in flow.

ECM Weekly (22 Apr 2025) – Suzuki, Zenergy, Chagee, Duality, Manycore, Horizon, Giant Bio, TV Asahi

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Duality Biotherapeutics delivered a strong listing, while Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies was still holding on to its deal price.
On the placements front, we looked at number of upcoming lockup expiries.

D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) 4576 JP – Full Report

By Sessa Investment Research

SIR believes DWTI has entered an exciting new phase given significant advances in pipeline development achieved over the last 12 months.
Key advances include: 1) publishing favorable topline results of in-house H-1337 PIIb US trials (strong prospects as “first choice as a second-line Glaucoma drug”),
2) commencing jointly developed Japan PII clinical trials of regenerative medicine cell therapy DWR-2206 with ActualEyes, and successfully completing all transplants

The Bigger Issue than the Lack of Higher Compensation for Outside Board Directors Is…

By Aki Matsumoto

It’s not desirable for shareholders to have outside directors who are comfortable and remain in office for a long period of time while they are expected to fulfill their duties.
The high demand for outside directors of the same senior generation as inside directors has led to a situation in which senior outside directors hold positions at several companies.
There are few competent young talents to take on the job of outside director among the senior, all-male, internal board directors who are under strong peer pressure.

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Apr 22

Most Read: BYD, Zomato, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, GMO Internet, ENN Energy, Suzhou Kematek, Sanrio, LS Corp, Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Kakao Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion
Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling
*NEW* USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance
GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float
Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon
CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks
Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
Lee Jae-Myung’s Camp Just Dropped Their Latest Market Stimulus Play
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes
Big Crypto Money Move in Korea – Impact on Key Listed Korean Companies

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion

BYD (1211 HK) raised US$5.6bn in a secondary offering a few weeks ago and the stock is trading a lot higher than the placement price.
Buying from global index trackers is done, but there will be more passive buying from Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) trackers later this month.
With the release of the God’s Eye advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS), the stock could be added to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June, bringing more passive inflows.

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.

NEW USTR Section 301 Proposed Actions on China Maritime Dominance

Biden’s USTR came out with a flawed Section 301 report on Chinese maritime “dominance” in January. It is not that China shipbuilding is not dominant, but the report was flawed.
In February/March (flawed) measures were proposed. Then mostly minimally-insightful hearings were held. Then Trump came out with an Executive Order “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” (that requires looking back 80yrs).
Now we have new USTR Proposed Measures which water down the old ones quite considerably.

GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float

Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP) has become GMO Internet as of 1 January 2025. On that day, it merged with the “internet infrastructure business” of GMO Internet (9449 JP).
It was a kind of reverse takeover – a backdoor listing – and it on 24-Dec-2024, it was announced GMO Internet would move from TSE Standard to TSE Prime end-Jan2025.
The stock is +300% since then. Why? A squeeze. Share count increase? 15x. Float share increase? Zero. Resulting Real World Float? 1.24% of shares out and about to shrink.

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Apr) – ENN Energy, Canvest, OneConnect, Makino, Shibaura, Welcia, Topcon

By Arun George

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Domain Holdings.
Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tenma Corp (7958 JP), Aeon Delight (9787 JP), Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP).

CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Index Flows for Some Stocks

The review period for the June rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ends 30 April. The changes should be announced on 30 May and implemented on 13 June.
We forecast 4/5 adds and 8 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 2.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 990m (US$136m).
There are many forecast adds and deletes that will have same side flows from trackers of the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index and the CNI Semiconductor Chips Index.

Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s stock price dropped following the placement announcement in November. Then there was a rally in the stock amid increased volatility.
The placement resulted in an increase in free float and the move higher in the stock could lead to Sanrio (8136 JP) being added to a global index in May.
There is positioning in the stock but a lot of that appears to have been taken off in the last month. The stock could move higher depending on global cues.

Lee Jae-Myung’s Camp Just Dropped Their Latest Market Stimulus Play

By Sanghyun Park

They’re making it easier to spot stocks benefiting from policy shifts. Lee Jae-myung’s camp is giving more detail upfront, with a focus on FuriosaAI and related listed stocks.
If cumulative voting passes, expect a pop in stocks with governance issues, activist interest, or large NPS stakes, like Hyosung affiliates, Doosan, HL Mando, and POSCO Holdings.
They also aim to give parent shareholders first crack at spun-off subsidiaries going public and require buyback cancellations, likely benefiting SK and LS Group affiliates, Samsung Electronics, and POSCO Holdings.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.

Big Crypto Money Move in Korea – Impact on Key Listed Korean Companies

By Douglas Kim

There has been a big crypto money move in Korea. Market cap of crypto currencies held in crypto exchanges in Korea nearly doubled from October to November 2024.
We discuss 8 major listed companies in Korea that are major beneficiaries (directly and indirectly) of this big move into crypto currencies in Korea.
Some of the major beneficiaries include Kakao Corp, KT Corp, Hanwha Securities, Woori Technology Investment, and Vidente.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Dian Swastatika Sentosa, Maharashtra Seamless, Gensol Engineering, Natural Gas, Base Oil, Crude Oil, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Coro Energy PLC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes
MSL: High ROCE, Strong Moat – Rides Energy Capex Surge
India’s Biggest Small-Cap Shell Game
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/16] Henry Hub Sinks on Milder Weather and Record Output
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/16] WTI Rebounds on Improved Trade Outlook and Strong U.S. Demand
Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India
Hybridan Research: Coro Energy plc: Free to Focus

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.

MSL: High ROCE, Strong Moat – Rides Energy Capex Surge

By Rahul Jain

Market leader with 55% share in seamless pipes, Rs2,400 Cr net cash, and stable Rs15,000–17,000/ton EBITDA backed by strong oil & gas demand.
Efficient capital allocator delivering 20%+ ROCE, with consistent insider buying reflecting high promoter confidence.
26% profit CAGR over 5 years, yet trades at ~12x P/E, offering value in a structurally growing industry.

India’s Biggest Small-Cap Shell Game

The Mahadev Betting Scam exposed the infiltration of illegal gambling money into the stock market, manipulating small-cap stocks through offshore shell companies and pump-and-dump strategies.
This scandal demonstrates how vulnerable markets are to operator-driven speculation, leading to artificial stock price surges, which mislead investors and undermine market integrity, creating systemic risks.
The episode emphasizes the need for heightened due diligence, transparency, and scrutiny of foreign portfolio investors, encouraging investors to be more cautious of unexplained stock movements and shell company involvement.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/16] Henry Hub Sinks on Milder Weather and Record Output

For the week ending 17/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
For the week ending 11/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 16 Bcf, which was lower than analyst expectations of a 24 Bcf increase.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.93 on 17/Apr compared to 0.95 on 11/Apr. Call OI increased by 2.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 0.3%.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April

By Iain Pocock

Asia’s base oils demand could face more marked pressure as expectations of softer supply-demand fundamentals coincide with concern about economic slowdown and impact of US tariffs.
Uncertainty about timing, size and impact of US tariffs adds to blenders’ incentive to maintain lower stocks.
High base oils prices relative to feedstock and gasoil prices and relative to other regions add to incentive to hold back.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/16] WTI Rebounds on Improved Trade Outlook and Strong U.S. Demand

By Special Situation Investments

WTI futures rose 4.1% for the week ending 17/Apr, driven primarily by U.S.-China trade talks and falling U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories.
The U.S. rig count rose by two to 585. The oil rig count rose by one to 481, while gas rigs also grew by one to 96.
WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.81 on 17/Apr from 0.80 on 11/Apr. Call OI decreased by 13% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.9%.

Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India

By Vinod Nedumudy

Farmers say RRII 400 clone series performs below par
RRII Head rejects charges, tells farmers to follow guidance
Kerala farmers demand introduction of GM crops

Hybridan Research: Coro Energy plc: Free to Focus

By Hybridan

A double line is drawn under the past, as its wholly owned subsidiary Coro Energy Duyung is being sold.
It has a holding in the Mako Gas Field in Indonesia and the proposed disposal is to West Natuna Exploration Ltd (WNEL), a subsidiary of Conrad Asia Energy, that already has a 76.5% working interest in Mako.
Whilst Coro has supported the asset for many years, recent GSA pricing and oil price movements have materially deteriorated the project economics and the Operator has not delivered material progress on key commercial milestones.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief Utilities: ENN Energy, Naturgy Energy Group SA and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Privatisation Progressing Well Ahead
SSI Weekly Highlights: Tender Offers, Buyouts, Liquidations, and Strategic Acquisitions in Focus

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Privatisation Progressing Well Ahead

By Osbert Tang, CFA

ENN Energy (2688 HK) is not required to submit a merger control filing to the SAMR, suggesting it is making a step ahead in meeting the pre-conditions.
The use of onshore bank loans and cash balance as a refinancing source and consideration payment will lower financing costs, boosting the value of ENN Natural Gas H-share.
The current share price is 9.3 and 17.7% below the low-bound and high-bound of our estimated value range. It is also less vulnerable to the current tariff war.

SSI Weekly Highlights: Tender Offers, Buyouts, Liquidations, and Strategic Acquisitions in Focus

Naturgy Energy Group plans a tender offer to repurchase 9% of shares at €26.50/share, with potential upside due to Spanish proration rules.
Lensar is being acquired by Alcon for $14/share plus a CVR up to $2.75/share, with shareholder approval likely.
OCI N.V. announced a $1bn cash distribution and potential future dividends, raising net cash estimates to €9.19/share.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief Industrials: LS Corp, HMM Co., Ltd., Hyundai Engineering & Construction, ABB Ltd, Green Impact Partners , Legrand SA and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Lee Jae-Myung’s Camp Just Dropped Their Latest Market Stimulus Play
HMM’s 2T KRW Buyback Tender to Drop Before June End
Korea Value Up (3 Winners and 7 Losers Among KOSPI 200 Companies) In March and April 2025
Weekly Update (ABB, MEDXF, LION)
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Green Impact Partners (GIP)
Legrand S.A. – Company Update: March 21, 2025

Lee Jae-Myung’s Camp Just Dropped Their Latest Market Stimulus Play

By Sanghyun Park

They’re making it easier to spot stocks benefiting from policy shifts. Lee Jae-myung’s camp is giving more detail upfront, with a focus on FuriosaAI and related listed stocks.
If cumulative voting passes, expect a pop in stocks with governance issues, activist interest, or large NPS stakes, like Hyosung affiliates, Doosan, HL Mando, and POSCO Holdings.
They also aim to give parent shareholders first crack at spun-off subsidiaries going public and require buyback cancellations, likely benefiting SK and LS Group affiliates, Samsung Electronics, and POSCO Holdings.

HMM’s 2T KRW Buyback Tender to Drop Before June End

By Sanghyun Park

This buyback facilitates KDB’s exit, as rules prevent a block trade benefiting one shareholder. KDB plans to tender a 4–5% stake, or about 40% of the 2 trillion KRW buyback.
Given HMM’s tight float, the premium is likely above the usual 10%, making it a strong opportunity for short-term arbitrage trading.
The key is timing the announcement. With the June deadline, we need to monitor hot money flows into HMM to build our position before the news breaks.

Korea Value Up (3 Winners and 7 Losers Among KOSPI 200 Companies) In March and April 2025

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we provide the details of the 10 most recent companies in KOSPI 200 that have announced their Corporate Value Up plans (April and March 2025).
These 10 companies in KOSPI 200 that have announced their Corporate Value Up plans are down on average 1.3% versus KOSPI which is down 2% in the same period.
Three companies that have outperformed KOSPI (since their Corporate Value Up report announcement) include Hanmi Semiconductor, Hyundai Engineering & Construction, and Samyang Foods.

Weekly Update (ABB, MEDXF, LION)

By Richard Howe

April 17, 2025, ABB Ltd (ABB) announced its intention to spin off its entire robotics division.
The robotics unit, recognized as the world’s second-largest industrial robot manufacturer after Japan’s FANUC, generated $2.3 billion in revenue in 2024, accounting for approximately 7% of ABB’s total sales.
However, its profit margin stood at 12.1%, trailing the group’s overall margin of 18.1%, primarily due to subdued demand in the automotive sector.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Green Impact Partners (GIP)

By Water Tower Research

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.1%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.3%).
Energy Technology (12.5% of the index) was up 0.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.5% of the index) was up 3.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.9% of the index) was down 1.7%.
Top 10 Performers: TMC, EGT, HCNWF, CVW, HLGN, GGR, SX, IPWR, ABML, WAVE

Legrand S.A. – Company Update: March 21, 2025

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Our estimations for FY 2025 annual revenue range at around €9,168 million and for 2026 at around €9,718 million.
The company’s annual revenue reached €8,649 million in 2024 compared to €8,417 million in 2023, post- ing an increase by 2.76%. Legrand S.A. (or the company) gross profit for FY 2024 was €4,466 million, increased by 1.52% compared to €4,399 million for the corresponding period of 2023.
In addition, during FY 2024 EBITDA amounted to €2,022 million, while EBT and EATAM settled at €1,578 million and €1,166 million respectively.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief Consumer: GMO Internet, Sanrio, BYD, Dada Nexus , Jubilant Agri and Consumer Products, MGM China Holdings, Adastria Co Ltd, Shandong Fengxiang, Meituan, Continental and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float
Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May
BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result
Dada Nexus (DADA US): Takeaways from the 13E-3 Filing
Event Driven: Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products Demerger- Next Value Creator from the Bhartia Group?
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound
Shandong Fengxiang (9977.HK) Privatization – Long-Term Investors May Be Unhappy with the Offer Price
Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm
Reviewing the Demerger Arbitrage Setup for Continental AG

GMO Internet (4784) DropDown Holdco Gone Ballistic – Squeezed on Truly Tiny Float

Gmo Ad Partners (4784 JP) has become GMO Internet as of 1 January 2025. On that day, it merged with the “internet infrastructure business” of GMO Internet (9449 JP).
It was a kind of reverse takeover – a backdoor listing – and it on 24-Dec-2024, it was announced GMO Internet would move from TSE Standard to TSE Prime end-Jan2025.
The stock is +300% since then. Why? A squeeze. Share count increase? 15x. Float share increase? Zero. Resulting Real World Float? 1.24% of shares out and about to shrink.

Sanrio (8136 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s stock price dropped following the placement announcement in November. Then there was a rally in the stock amid increased volatility.
The placement resulted in an increase in free float and the move higher in the stock could lead to Sanrio (8136 JP) being added to a global index in May.
There is positioning in the stock but a lot of that appears to have been taken off in the last month. The stock could move higher depending on global cues.

BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result

By Ming Lu

The growth rate of sales volume slowed down in March 2025.
Geely’s sales volume reached 46% of BYD’s in 1Q25, compared to 23% in 2024.
We set a downside of 18% and a price target of HK$300 for the next twelve months.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): Takeaways from the 13E-3 Filing

By Arun George

Dada Nexus (DADA US) has filed the 13E-3 relating to the binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
The 13E-3 filing provides more details on the price negotiations, required regulatory approvals and IFA valuation. Crucially, no Chinese regulatory approvals are required.
The completion conditions are low-risk. At last close and for an end-September payment, the gross/annualised spread is 5.4%/12.1% (including the US$0.05 ADS cancellation fee).

Event Driven: Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products Demerger- Next Value Creator from the Bhartia Group?

Separation of fertilizer division enables sharper valuation for adhesives, removing drag from losses and unlocking pure-play growth potential.
High growth with underpriced products; margin expansion likely as brand strength builds, closing gap with Pidilite and Jyoti Resins.
Once loss-making agri business now EBIT-positive; post-demerger focus may revive segment and surprise on valuations.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Adani Ports
In the US last Thursday, March housing starts came in below estimates at negative 11.4% m-o-m (-5.4% e / 9.8% revised p) to an annualised 1.32 mn units (1.42 mn e / 1.49 mn revised p), amid high inventory levels and uncertainty over building-material costs.
That said, building permits rose 1.6% m-o-m (-0.6% e / -1.0% p) to an annualised 1.48 mn units (1.45 mn e / 1.46 mn p).

Adastria: Cautious on the Platform Narrative, But Optimistic on Margins and Valuation Rebound

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Adastria’s “5th CHANGE” outlines a strategic pivot from specialty retail to a platform model aimed at scaling across brands, categories, and geographies while navigating domestic headwinds and evolving consumer behaviors.
While Adastria Co Ltd (2685 JP)’s narrative emphasizes transformation, actual targets for user growth and GMV expansion appear modest, suggesting limited operational changes.
Despite mixed views on the mid-term plan, we remain optimistic on Adastria. Gross margin normalization could drive meaningful OP upside, potentially surpassing mid-term plan targets.

Shandong Fengxiang (9977.HK) Privatization – Long-Term Investors May Be Unhappy with the Offer Price

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Based on our forecast, growth may be under pressure in 2025, but would recover in 2026/2027.The Cancellation Price is attractive for investors who want to cash out in short term.
Some long-term investors may hope to see an improvement in Fengxiang’s fundementals and long-term performance after PAG/Abu Dhabi Investment step in. Their attitude may bring uncertainties to the privatization.
The business logic of PAG is not a simple financial investment, but a higher pursuit. Fengxiang is a high-quality asset for PAG.Share Alternative Offer could help increase the success rate

Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm

By Gaudenz Schneider

One-Month implied volatility for Meituan (3690 HK) has decreased from recent highs to around its three-year median, while realized volatility, a lagging indicator, remains significantly higher at the 87th percentile.
The term structure is flat, with May and June implied volatilities nearly identical, indicating no significant impact from the upcoming earnings announcement in early June.
Open interest is spread over the next nine months, with April calls concentrated at strikes 145 to 150 and deep out of the money calls at strikes 180 to 200.

Reviewing the Demerger Arbitrage Setup for Continental AG

By Richard Howe

Continental AG (XTRA: CON) has been high on my watch list for the past 3 months.
Why? Because Continental is going to be spinning off its auto parts business in late 2025 and it looks like the transaction will create shareholder value.
I was very close to buying the stock recently. But two things are holding me back for now

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Apr 22

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NetEase , Kakao Corp, Baidu , Swiggy, Hang Seng Index, Novonix , Soluna Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease
Big Crypto Money Move in Korea – Impact on Key Listed Korean Companies
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$470mn One-Way Flows Expected
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$317mn One-Way in June; Three Changes Likely in September
Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols
NVX: Believe Current Trade Situation Highlights Need for Local Supply Chain for Battery Materials
Soluna Holdings, Inc: Project Ellen Will Put Another 100 MW Wind- Driven Data Center in Texas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$1.53bn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 7.4%.

Big Crypto Money Move in Korea – Impact on Key Listed Korean Companies

By Douglas Kim

There has been a big crypto money move in Korea. Market cap of crypto currencies held in crypto exchanges in Korea nearly doubled from October to November 2024.
We discuss 8 major listed companies in Korea that are major beneficiaries (directly and indirectly) of this big move into crypto currencies in Korea.
Some of the major beneficiaries include Kakao Corp, KT Corp, Hanwha Securities, Woori Technology Investment, and Vidente.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$470mn One-Way Flows Expected

The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$470mn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 4.3%.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$317mn One-Way in June; Three Changes Likely in September

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in September 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion