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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Makemytrip Ltd, Xiaomi Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Warner Bros Discovery , BE Semiconductor Industries NV, Geechs Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • MakeMyTrip Placement – Basically a Selldown by Trip.com
  • Xiaomi (1810 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Option Trades
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging
  • Weekly Update (WBD, STRZ, MODG)
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 17 June (ASM Int’l | ASML Holding | Besi I | PostNL)
  • Q4 Follow-Up – Geechs (7060 JP) – New Initiatives Aimed at Achieving Operating Profit…
  • Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish


MakeMyTrip Placement – Basically a Selldown by Trip.com

By Akshat Shah

  • Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US) is looking to raise upto US$2.66bn via an equity combo of a 14m share selldown, which could raise around US$1.41bn and US$1.25bn five-year put-three convertible bonds.
  • The company plans to use the proceeds to buy back Class B shares from Trip.com to lower Trip.com’s voting power in MakeMyTrip to 19.99%.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Option Trades

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
  • Popular Strategies: Diagonal Spreads account for 27%of all strategies. This versatile strategy allows for many different profiles in terms of upfront premium (positive or negative), and time horizon.
  • This Insight of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind
  • TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging
  • MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. 

Weekly Update (WBD, STRZ, MODG)

By Richard Howe

  • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) announced on June 9, 2025, its plan to split into two independent, publicly traded companies by mid-2026.

  • Global Networks will be the entity that is spun-off. It will consist of legacy cable TV and digital networks, such as: CNN, TBS, TNT (including TNT Sports)…

  • CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels will become CEO of this spun‑off entity.


What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 17 June (ASM Int’l | ASML Holding | Besi I | PostNL)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • ASM International – ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | US wants further export restrictions of high-end semiconductor technology to China • PostNL | opens up its APM network for FedEx for drop-offs and returns

Q4 Follow-Up – Geechs (7060 JP) – New Initiatives Aimed at Achieving Operating Profit…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • On May 14, 2025, Geechs Inc. (hereafter, “the Company”) announced its full-year FY2025/3 earnings results.
  • Net sales rose 6% YoY to JPY 25,162 mn, EBITDA rose 73% YoY to JPY 625 mn, and operating profit rose 445% YoY to JPY 495 mn.
  • The IT Human Resources Matching Business, Overseas (hereafter, “Overseas IT HRM Biz”) continued to face challenges owing to local market conditions, but the core IT Human Resources Matching Business, Japan (hereafter, “Japan IT HRM Biz”) expanded steadily and profitability continued to improve in the Seed Tech business.

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
  • We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).
  • We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hanjin KAL Corp, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kepco Engineering & Construction, Intloop , Sany Heavy Industry, COPRO-HOLDINGS Co Ltd, Ohba Co Ltd, Chesterfield Special Cylinders Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Late August Could Be the Pivot Point for the Hanjin KAL Trade?
  • Mitsubishi Heavy (7011) – Strong Earnings, ¥10.2T Backlog, Macro Tailwinds Remain Supportive
  • MHI (7011 JP): Take Profits
  • KEPCO E&C (052690.KQ) – Nuclear Tailwinds, Proprietary Edge, and Execution Challenges
  • INTLOOP (9556 JP) – Delivering Solid Margin Expansion
  • Sany Heavy Industries A/H Listing – Has Suffered Recently, Showing Signs of Stabilizing
  • Friday Take Away: 06 June 2025
  • Q4 Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP) – An Increase in Dividend Payment…
  • Q3 Follow-Up – Ohba (9765 JP) – Favorable External Conditions Likely to Continue in FY2026
  • Chesterfield Special Cylinders — Green shoots from a refocused business


Why Late August Could Be the Pivot Point for the Hanjin KAL Trade?

By Sanghyun Park

  • KDB just signaled they’ll offload their Hanjin KAL stake post-merger, likely in 2027—ending speculation they’d stay long-term to back Cho Won-tae.
  • The 9% held by Daishin and Eugene PEs may hit the market in August, with LPs likely to cash out—Hoban grabbing it could flip the whole Hanjin KAL setup.
  • If Hoban grabs the 9% PE stake in August, it could trigger a pre-2027 bidding war—possibly even a tender offer—to lock down float. This is the key near-term pivot.

Mitsubishi Heavy (7011) – Strong Earnings, ¥10.2T Backlog, Macro Tailwinds Remain Supportive

By Rahul Jain

  • MHI has delivered a strong turnaround over the past four years, with revenue up 26% and business profit expanding nearly 10x from FY22 to FY25
  • The consolidated order backlog crossed ¥10.2 trillion in FY25, up ~22% YoY, offering ~2 years of forward revenue visibility and skewed toward high-margin Energy and Defense segments.
  • While the stock has rallied sharply, management’s solid FY25–30 guidance, along with structural tailwinds from energy transition and defense spending, continue to underpin the long-term thesis.

MHI (7011 JP): Take Profits

By Scott Foster

  • MHI is up nearly 60% year-to-date to 46x management’s EPS guidance for FY Mar-26 and 27x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-30.
  • By then, we expect Air, Defense & Space revenues to double and the division’s operating margin to rise from 10% to 15%, which is the likely cap on profitability. 
  • Given Japan’s uncertain finances and the long time horizon that should already be discounted, we recommend profit taking. 

KEPCO E&C (052690.KQ) – Nuclear Tailwinds, Proprietary Edge, and Execution Challenges

By Rahul Jain

  • KEPCO E&C is well-positioned to benefit from the global revival in nuclear power, with strong domestic visibility and growing international interest in its engineering capabilities. 
  • Its proprietary APR1400 reactor platform anchors the business, supported by verticals in O&M, decommissioning, and green energy EPC. 
  • While earnings have grown sharply on margin gains, high valuations and project execution risks—particularly overseas—warrant careful monitoring.

INTLOOP (9556 JP) – Delivering Solid Margin Expansion

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Unlocking improved earnings potential – By prioritizing high-quality business opportunities, INTLOOP continues to improve OPM YoY, reflecting stronger operating efficiency.
  • Q1-3 FY7/25 results were ahead of unchanged FY guidance, with the company continuing to invest in scaling capacity with new senior mid-career hires as well as graduates.
  • Management believes there is further upside to margin expansion through profit-focused sales activities and price revisions. 

Sany Heavy Industries A/H Listing – Has Suffered Recently, Showing Signs of Stabilizing

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing.
  • Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost & Sullivan.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Friday Take Away: 06 June 2025

By Hybridan

  • The Interims to March 2025 were reported on 3rd of June from the re-named designer and manufacturer of high-pressure containment products and services serving the global energy, defence, and industrial gases market.
  • Disappointingly, revenues of £5.4m were 16.9% lower causing the gross profit margin to decline to 18.5% from 23.1%, with an EBITDA loss of £1.3m compared to an EBITDA loss of £0.7m in FY H1 2024.
  • The lower revenue reflects the phasing of contracts weighted heavily to H2 and thereby also affecting the margins due to the business’ fixed costs. 

Q4 Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP) – An Increase in Dividend Payment…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • COPRO-HOLDINGS. Co., Ltd., (hereafter, the Company) announced the full year results for FY2025/3 after the market close on Thursday, May 15, 2025.
  • The key consolidated figures are net sales of JPY 30,015 mn (+24.6% YoY), gross profit of JPY 8,308 mn (+22.6% YoY), operating profit of JPY 2,763 mn (+29.1% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent (hereafter, net profit) of JPY 1,820 mn (+24.4% YoY).
  • COPRO Construction. Co., Ltd. (hereafter, COPRO CN), which operates the Company‘s core business of construction technician dispatching contributed significantly to results of strong growth due to record recruiting.

Q3 Follow-Up – Ohba (9765 JP) – Favorable External Conditions Likely to Continue in FY2026

By Sessa Investment Research

  • FY2025/5 Q3 Results|On April 10, 2025, OHBA (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q3 FY2025/5 results.
  • Due to the seasonal nature of its business, which tends to concentrate earnings in Q4, progress rates toward the full-year plan appear low at first glance, with net sales at 68.6% and operating profit at 62.3%.
  • However, SIR believes the Company is steadily progressing toward achieving its full-year targets of 6.1% YoY sales growth and 5.8% YoY operating profit growth. 

Chesterfield Special Cylinders — Green shoots from a refocused business

By Edison Investment Research

Following the disposal of its Precision Machined Components (PMC) division, Chesterfield Special Cylinders (CSC) is moving forward as a focused, specialist high-pressure cylinder business, as reflected in the recent change of name (formerly Pressure Technologies). As part of this strategy, management has set out ambitious targets for 30% sales growth and EBITDA margins of >12% by 2028. H125 results are unexciting but the strong order book supports management confidence for positive EBITDA in FY25, putting CSC firmly on the right trajectory. Key will be the speed at which the defence (75% of FY24 sales) and hydrogen (11%) activities, both expected to be supported by positive fundamentals, can grow.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: New World Resources, Boss Energy, Hindustan Zinc, Carnarvon Petroleum, Base Oil, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Capital Emerges With A 12% Stake
  • Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) – Transitioning to Tier-1 Producer with Strong Quarterly Momentum
  • HINDZINC – ₹12,000 Cr Smelter Expansion Approved Amid Long-Term Growth Push
  • Carnarvon Energy UPDATE(CVN)
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 16 June
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 16 June


New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Capital Emerges With A 12% Stake

By David Blennerhassett


Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) – Transitioning to Tier-1 Producer with Strong Quarterly Momentum

By Rahul Jain

  • Boss delivered a robust March 2025 quarter, with Honeymoon generating free cash flow and production ramping sharply.
  • The company targets ~2.9M lbs annual output by FY27, supported by Alta Mesa and multiple exploration assets.
  • Valuations remain attractive at ~8× forward P/E, though uranium price volatility and execution risks persist.

HINDZINC – ₹12,000 Cr Smelter Expansion Approved Amid Long-Term Growth Push

By Rahul Jain

  • HZL has approved a ₹12,000 crore investment to set up a 250 KTPA integrated zinc smelter at Debari as part of its 2x capacity expansion plan.
  • While smelting investments are not inherently value-accretive due to low TCs, they are necessary to process captive ore and minimize logistics costs.
  • The overall growth outlook remains strong, but the pending mine lease expiries by 2030 pose a material long-term risk.

Carnarvon Energy UPDATE(CVN)

By Triple S Special Situations Investing

  • Yes, I know I wrote this one up a year ago, but things have changed to make this a more interesting investment opportunity.
  • I would recommend holding this in an account where you can sit on it for a few years.
  • The ultimate IRR will be attractive, but this isn’t a quick flip.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils margins fall as feedstock/competing fuel prices surge.
  • Sharp fall in base oils margins reflect impact of higher crude/diesel prices rather than any sudden change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Fall in base oils margins comes at a time of year when supply-demand fundamentals are already starting to face downward pressure.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 13/Jun, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 5.4% on the back of mild near-term demand, softening LNG exports, and rising storage levels.
  • For the week ending 06/Jun, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 109 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 108 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR inched up by 0.86 on 13/Jun compared to 0.85 on 06/Jun. Call OI increased by 4.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 5.5%.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures surged by 13% for the week ending 13/Jun on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
  • The U.S. rig count fell by four to 555. The oil rig count fell by three to 439, while gas rigs inched down by one to 113.
  • WTI OI PCR grew to 0.89 on 13/Jun compared to 0.83 on 06/Jun. Call OI rose by 5.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 14.5%.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils margins fall as crude and heating oil prices surge.
  • Margins had previously been trending lower slowly.
  • Steady-to-lower margins coincided with muted domestic demand and improving supply fundamentals following completion of most plant maintenance work.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand could get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices following surge in crude oil prices.
  • Weakening supply-demand fundamentals previously put pressure on adjustment in base oils prices to reflect that dynamic.
  • Concern about exposure to lower prices incentivized buyers to limit their procurement plans.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group III 4cSt base oils price rises in June to highest level in almost nine months.
  • US Group III 4cSt price rises relative to Group II base oils, relative to feedstock prices and relative to other regions.
  • US Group III price-strength coincides with tighter global Group III supply-demand fundamentals and growing number of signals reflecting those tighter fundamentals.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Vishal Mega Mart, BYD, CaoCao, Melco International Development, Chagee Holdings, Shiseido Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying
  • BYD (1211 HK): Authorities Halting Severe Competition Throughout Industry and Industry Chain
  • Cao Cao Pre-IPO: Grossly Overvalued
  • BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Following Regulatory Pushback on Market Dominance
  • CaoCao IPO (2643 HK): Valuation Insights
  • StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Needs To Fall
  • Chinese Tea Chain: An Impromptu Snapshot Visit at Sunac Mall – Mixue, Chagee, Goodme, ChaPanda
  • Shiseido (4911) | Beauty in the Bargain Bin
  • Foshan Haitian: Upsized at Top Price. Near Term Upside, Long Term Value Play.
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis


Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Reports indicate that Kedaara Capital Fund is looking to sell 22% of Vishal Mega Mart at a floor price of INR 110/share, a 11.9% discount to the last close.
  • The placement will lead to a huge increase in the free float for the stock and Vishal Mega Mart could be added to a global index in August.
  • Vishal Mega Mart is also an inclusion to another global index at the close on Friday and we could see more buying in the stock following the increase in float.

BYD (1211 HK): Authorities Halting Severe Competition Throughout Industry and Industry Chain

By Ming Lu

  • BYD announced that the company would provide price discounts for 22 models.
  • BYD has scale advantage over other NEV car makers and the NEV industry has bargaining power over suppliers and dealers.
  • The auto association and the Ministry of Industry are trying to protect small companies from bankruptcy.

Cao Cao Pre-IPO: Grossly Overvalued

By Nicholas Tan

  • CaoCao (2643 HK)  is looking to raise up to $236m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • It is a ride hailing platform in China originally incubated by Geely Group connecting passengers and drivers to deliver consistent and high-quality ride experiences.
  • In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

BYD (1211 HK) Outlook Following Regulatory Pushback on Market Dominance

By Nico Rosti

  • As reported by Ming Lu, Chinese regulators are pushing back against BYD (1211 HK)’s dominance, which has strained smaller domestic EV competitors. Read his latest BYD insight for more details.
  • In a recent insightwe signaled BYD was tactically overbought. The stock fell rapidly right after.
  • The stock is currently mildly oversold according to our WEEKLY model: it could fall a bit more, but if this week closes in negative territory there could be a rebound.

CaoCao IPO (2643 HK): Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • CaoCao (2643 HK) has launched its IPO to raise US$236 million at HK$41.94 per share. The shares will be listed on 25 June.
  • I previously discussed the IPO in CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case and CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case
  • In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that CaoCao is at best fairly valued at the offer price. Therefore, avoid the IPO.

StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) Needs To Fall

By David Blennerhassett

  • Melco International Development (200 HK)‘s fully-paid rights shares commence trading today. Melco is down just ~14% since announcing a one-for-two rights issue; and 13% above the TERP.
  • Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Chinese Tea Chain: An Impromptu Snapshot Visit at Sunac Mall – Mixue, Chagee, Goodme, ChaPanda

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We recently visited Guangzhou city, a tier one city in China, on a vacation trip. 
  • One of the malls that we visited happened to have several listed tea chain stores.
  • We took a snapshot of the shop traffic and noted the difference in locations of various stores. We also ordered tea drinks from two of these stores.

Shiseido (4911) | Beauty in the Bargain Bin

By Mark Chadwick

  • Shiseido’s core brand remains strong, but years of weak growth, high costs, and tariff risks have pushed valuations to deeply discounted, near-decade lows.
  • Early signs from Japan show margin recovery is possible; aggressive cost-cutting could double core operating margins and unlock significant upside if execution holds.
  • If management fails to deliver, Shiseido’s global brand equity, strategic footprint, and low valuation make it an obvious acquisition target for PE or industry buyers.

Foshan Haitian: Upsized at Top Price. Near Term Upside, Long Term Value Play.

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Foshan Haitian has priced its Hong Kong offer at the top end (HKD36.3/share) and upsized it to 279 million shares, raising a strong HKD10.1 billion (USD1.3 billion).
  • With a massive 696x oversubscription and nearly half the deal secured by cornerstone investors, the stock could see a lively debut when it lists on June 19th.
  • We believe Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) lacks a clear catalyst for growth and hence the growth expectations built into its Hong Kong pricing may prove difficult to materialise.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • On 17 June, Bloomberg reported that Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company has raised HK$10.1 billion after a strong remand for its shares to be listed in Hong Kong.
  • We estimate the company to generate revenue of 29.4 billion RMB (up 9.2% YoY) and net profit of 6.8 billion RMB (up 7.1% YoY) in 2025.
  • Our valuation analysis suggests that Foshan Haitian is undervalued. Our base case valuation suggests implied market cap of 286 billion CNY, which represents 25% higher than current levels.

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Daily Brief Macro: US/China: Sprint vs Stamina and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • US/China: Sprint vs Stamina
  • Steno Signals #201 – The Mullahs Are Toast – Re-Inflation Is Back!
  • China – Where To Invest?
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 16 June
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism
  • CX Daily: Chinese Biotech Is Having a ‘DeepSeek Moment’
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 16 June
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June


US/China: Sprint vs Stamina

By Alastair Newton

  • The recent US/China trade talks highlighted Beijing’s superior leverage and determination.
  • Beijing is in a stronger position in terms of both leverage and willingness to persist.
  • Avoiding a re-escalation after the current 90-day truce relies on Washington making more concessions.

Steno Signals #201 – The Mullahs Are Toast – Re-Inflation Is Back!

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Monday from Copenhagen.
  • What a comeback by JJ Spaun at Oakmont yesterday (sorry to the non-golfers), and what a comeback risk is about to make this week.
  • Iran’s mullah-tocracy is on the brink, and it could be a catalyst for a big bounce in risk appetite.

China – Where To Invest?

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Overweight AI, high tech, robotics, renewables and bio-tech. Underweight on consumer discretionary, property and export cyclicals.
  • China has become even more vital to its green transition.  At the same time the shift in government mindset means that domestic innovation is advancing at a breathtaking pace.    
  • That said the economy is yet bottom. The profit cycle downturn is worsening;  As of April 30% of manufacturing companies were loss making, up from 25% in November

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils margins fall as feedstock/competing fuel prices surge.
  • Sharp fall in base oils margins reflect impact of higher crude/diesel prices rather than any sudden change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Fall in base oils margins comes at a time of year when supply-demand fundamentals are already starting to face downward pressure.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 13/Jun, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 5.4% on the back of mild near-term demand, softening LNG exports, and rising storage levels.
  • For the week ending 06/Jun, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 109 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 108 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR inched up by 0.86 on 13/Jun compared to 0.85 on 06/Jun. Call OI increased by 4.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 5.5%.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures surged by 13% for the week ending 13/Jun on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
  • The U.S. rig count fell by four to 555. The oil rig count fell by three to 439, while gas rigs inched down by one to 113.
  • WTI OI PCR grew to 0.89 on 13/Jun compared to 0.83 on 06/Jun. Call OI rose by 5.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 14.5%.

CX Daily: Chinese Biotech Is Having a ‘DeepSeek Moment’

By Caixin Global

  • Drugs / Cover Story: Chinese biotech is having a ‘deepseek moment’
  • Hong Kong /: Hong Kong bets on stablecoins and AI to future-proof its financial edge
  • Home appliances /Analysis: New U.S. tariffs mean tough times ahead for appliance-makers

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group III 4cSt base oils price rises in June to highest level in almost nine months.
  • US Group III 4cSt price rises relative to Group II base oils, relative to feedstock prices and relative to other regions.
  • US Group III price-strength coincides with tighter global Group III supply-demand fundamentals and growing number of signals reflecting those tighter fundamentals.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils margins fall as crude and heating oil prices surge.
  • Margins had previously been trending lower slowly.
  • Steady-to-lower margins coincided with muted domestic demand and improving supply fundamentals following completion of most plant maintenance work.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand could get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices following surge in crude oil prices.
  • Weakening supply-demand fundamentals previously put pressure on adjustment in base oils prices to reflect that dynamic.
  • Concern about exposure to lower prices incentivized buyers to limit their procurement plans.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, PharmaResearch, Biocon Biologics India, Pharma-Bio Serv and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025
  • PharmaResearch Spin-Off: A Textbook Case Study of Destroying Shareholder Value
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • PBSV: Margins Increase and Profitability Returns


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
  • There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

PharmaResearch Spin-Off: A Textbook Case Study of Destroying Shareholder Value

By Douglas Kim

  • Last week, PharmaResearch announced that it has approved a corporate spin-off, to separate the existing company into two distinct entities including PharmaResearch Holdings (surviving entity) and PharmaResearch (newly created entity).
  • PharmaResearch spin-off is a textbook case study of destroying shareholder value. Minority shareholders should oppose this deal. 
  • The spin-off ratio is based on a pure net asset basis, not taking into consideration the future earnings and cash flow streams of the company’s most important product line Rejuran.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Biocon Biologics, Tata Motors, ReNew Energy
  • US treasury yields rose for a second day, with the curve steepening despite good overall demand for an auction of 20Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.97%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 5 bps at 4.45%.
  • Equities advanced on news that Iran was asking Gulf states to mediate a ceasefire with Israel. The S&P 500 increased 0.9% to 6,033, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.5% to 19,701.

PBSV: Margins Increase and Profitability Returns

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Pharma-Bio Serv(PBSV) Company Sponsored Research Report

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Daily Brief Australia: New World Resources, Boss Energy, Carnarvon Petroleum and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Capital Emerges With A 12% Stake
  • Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) – Transitioning to Tier-1 Producer with Strong Quarterly Momentum
  • Carnarvon Energy UPDATE(CVN)


New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Capital Emerges With A 12% Stake

By David Blennerhassett


Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) – Transitioning to Tier-1 Producer with Strong Quarterly Momentum

By Rahul Jain

  • Boss delivered a robust March 2025 quarter, with Honeymoon generating free cash flow and production ramping sharply.
  • The company targets ~2.9M lbs annual output by FY27, supported by Alta Mesa and multiple exploration assets.
  • Valuations remain attractive at ~8× forward P/E, though uranium price volatility and execution risks persist.

Carnarvon Energy UPDATE(CVN)

By Triple S Special Situations Investing

  • Yes, I know I wrote this one up a year ago, but things have changed to make this a more interesting investment opportunity.
  • I would recommend holding this in an account where you can sit on it for a few years.
  • The ultimate IRR will be attractive, but this isn’t a quick flip.

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Daily Brief Financials: HDB Financial Services Ltd, Aedas Homes SA, Banco De Sabadell SA, LIC Housing Finance, iFOREX Financial Trading and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing
  • Neinor/Aedas Homes: Locked-In Majority, But Minorities May Still Get Paid
  • TSB: Divestment as a Defensive Lever in Sabadell’s BBVA Saga
  • LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation
  • Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 05/06/2025


HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing

By Brian Freitas

  • HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
  • The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
  • HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

Neinor/Aedas Homes: Locked-In Majority, But Minorities May Still Get Paid

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Neinor’s offer is strategically sound but priced below NAV, raising legal and minority resistance risks.
  • Castlelake’s 79% commitment secures majority control, but a squeeze-out or delisting still requires a higher bid.
  • A revised offer near €26.50 would align interests and improve execution certainty at minimal cost to Neinor.

TSB: Divestment as a Defensive Lever in Sabadell’s BBVA Saga

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Sabadell is exploring a sale of TSB amid BBVA’s hostile bid, with offers in the €2.0–2.35B range.
  • A sale at those levels would imply a small capital loss, not a gain, in my view.
  • Strategic value remains: a divestment could disrupt BBVA’s plans, raise cash, or fund returns.

LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • As projected by us, LIC Housing Finance (“LICHF”) ended FY25 with a strong PAT of INR 5400cr+ (up 14%+ YoY), led by normalized credit cost of around 0.1%.
  • Q4FY25 PAT at INR 1374cr grew strong at 25%+ YoY. FY25 AUM grew 7.1% despite certain technical challenges. Total disbursements in FY25 grew at 9% YoY. 
  • NIM ended FY25 at 2.73%, in line with the expectation. Led by technical write-offs and sale of certain NPAs to ARCs, Stage 3 assets improved to 2.47% vs 3.31% YoY.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 05/06/2025

By Hybridan

  • 9th May: iFOREX Financial Trading, the fintech business with a proprietary online and mobile trading platform for multi-asset contracts for difference, announces that it has confirmed its intention to IPO onto the Main Market.
  • The Company developed and operates a proprietary online and mobile CFD trading platform, allowing primarily retail clients to trade CFDs across 870+ financial instruments, including currencies, commodities, indices, stocks, cryptocurrencies and exchange traded funds.
  • For the year ended 31 December 2024, trading income was $50.1m, adjusted EBITDA of $9.7m and adjusted profit before tax of $7.6m. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hanjin KAL Corp, PharmaResearch, Kepco Engineering & Construction and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Late August Could Be the Pivot Point for the Hanjin KAL Trade?
  • PharmaResearch Spin-Off: A Textbook Case Study of Destroying Shareholder Value
  • KEPCO E&C (052690.KQ) – Nuclear Tailwinds, Proprietary Edge, and Execution Challenges


Why Late August Could Be the Pivot Point for the Hanjin KAL Trade?

By Sanghyun Park

  • KDB just signaled they’ll offload their Hanjin KAL stake post-merger, likely in 2027—ending speculation they’d stay long-term to back Cho Won-tae.
  • The 9% held by Daishin and Eugene PEs may hit the market in August, with LPs likely to cash out—Hoban grabbing it could flip the whole Hanjin KAL setup.
  • If Hoban grabs the 9% PE stake in August, it could trigger a pre-2027 bidding war—possibly even a tender offer—to lock down float. This is the key near-term pivot.

PharmaResearch Spin-Off: A Textbook Case Study of Destroying Shareholder Value

By Douglas Kim

  • Last week, PharmaResearch announced that it has approved a corporate spin-off, to separate the existing company into two distinct entities including PharmaResearch Holdings (surviving entity) and PharmaResearch (newly created entity).
  • PharmaResearch spin-off is a textbook case study of destroying shareholder value. Minority shareholders should oppose this deal. 
  • The spin-off ratio is based on a pure net asset basis, not taking into consideration the future earnings and cash flow streams of the company’s most important product line Rejuran.

KEPCO E&C (052690.KQ) – Nuclear Tailwinds, Proprietary Edge, and Execution Challenges

By Rahul Jain

  • KEPCO E&C is well-positioned to benefit from the global revival in nuclear power, with strong domestic visibility and growing international interest in its engineering capabilities. 
  • Its proprietary APR1400 reactor platform anchors the business, supported by verticals in O&M, decommissioning, and green energy EPC. 
  • While earnings have grown sharply on margin gains, high valuations and project execution risks—particularly overseas—warrant careful monitoring.

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Daily Brief United States: Makemytrip Ltd, Chagee Holdings, Warner Bros Discovery , Base Oil, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Pharma-Bio Serv and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • MakeMyTrip Placement – Basically a Selldown by Trip.com
  • Chinese Tea Chain: An Impromptu Snapshot Visit at Sunac Mall – Mixue, Chagee, Goodme, ChaPanda
  • Weekly Update (WBD, STRZ, MODG)
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 16 June
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June
  • PBSV: Margins Increase and Profitability Returns
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June


MakeMyTrip Placement – Basically a Selldown by Trip.com

By Akshat Shah

  • Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US) is looking to raise upto US$2.66bn via an equity combo of a 14m share selldown, which could raise around US$1.41bn and US$1.25bn five-year put-three convertible bonds.
  • The company plans to use the proceeds to buy back Class B shares from Trip.com to lower Trip.com’s voting power in MakeMyTrip to 19.99%.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Chinese Tea Chain: An Impromptu Snapshot Visit at Sunac Mall – Mixue, Chagee, Goodme, ChaPanda

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We recently visited Guangzhou city, a tier one city in China, on a vacation trip. 
  • One of the malls that we visited happened to have several listed tea chain stores.
  • We took a snapshot of the shop traffic and noted the difference in locations of various stores. We also ordered tea drinks from two of these stores.

Weekly Update (WBD, STRZ, MODG)

By Richard Howe

  • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) announced on June 9, 2025, its plan to split into two independent, publicly traded companies by mid-2026.

  • Global Networks will be the entity that is spun-off. It will consist of legacy cable TV and digital networks, such as: CNN, TBS, TNT (including TNT Sports)…

  • CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels will become CEO of this spun‑off entity.


Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils margins fall as feedstock/competing fuel prices surge.
  • Sharp fall in base oils margins reflect impact of higher crude/diesel prices rather than any sudden change in base oils supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Fall in base oils margins comes at a time of year when supply-demand fundamentals are already starting to face downward pressure.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/24] Henry Hub Slips on Tepid Demand and Subdued Export Flows

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 13/Jun, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 5.4% on the back of mild near-term demand, softening LNG exports, and rising storage levels.
  • For the week ending 06/Jun, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 109 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 108 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR inched up by 0.86 on 13/Jun compared to 0.85 on 06/Jun. Call OI increased by 4.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 5.5%.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures surged by 13% for the week ending 13/Jun on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
  • The U.S. rig count fell by four to 555. The oil rig count fell by three to 439, while gas rigs inched down by one to 113.
  • WTI OI PCR grew to 0.89 on 13/Jun compared to 0.83 on 06/Jun. Call OI rose by 5.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 14.5%.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia base oils prices slide relative to crude and gasoil prices, triggering fall in margins.
  • Size and speed of drop in base oils premium to crude/gasoil complicates production and procurement plans.
  • Any signs of crude oil prices holding at more elevated levels for longer, and base oils margins at lower levels for longer, could put pressure on refiners to cut output.

PBSV: Margins Increase and Profitability Returns

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Pharma-Bio Serv(PBSV) Company Sponsored Research Report

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand could get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices following surge in crude oil prices.
  • Weakening supply-demand fundamentals previously put pressure on adjustment in base oils prices to reflect that dynamic.
  • Concern about exposure to lower prices incentivized buyers to limit their procurement plans.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils margins fall as crude and heating oil prices surge.
  • Margins had previously been trending lower slowly.
  • Steady-to-lower margins coincided with muted domestic demand and improving supply fundamentals following completion of most plant maintenance work.

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