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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Ocean , Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi, ISDN Holdings, Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr, Alfen, Herc Holdings , iPower , Aktor SA Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
  • Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean
  • GAPB MM – Actinver Research – GAP 1Q25: Solid Results, Beating Estimates (Quick View)
  • 10 in 10 with ISDN Holdings – Positioned for Long-Term Growth with Strategic Expansion and Diversification
  • OMAB US – Actinver Research – OMA 1Q25: Posted better-than-expected Q results (Quick View)
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 29 April (Alfen | e-commerce (logistics) sector)
  • Herc Holdings: The Mega Project Pipeline Is A Pivotal Growth Lever!
  • IPower, Inc. – Assuming Coverage: Diving into the Puts and Takes of Tariffs; We See a Silver Lining!
  • AKTOR (GROUP) S.A. Common Stock – March 4, 2025


FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

By Brian Freitas

  • The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
  • We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
  • The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Development Bank (KDB) is capitalizing on the huge share price appreciation of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) to sell some of its stake in the company through block deal sales.
  • KDB plans to sell its 19.5% stake in Hanwha Ocean. However, the initial block deal sale will be for about 13 million shares (4.3% of outstanding shares). 
  • Hanwha Ocean’s lofty valuations are difficult to justify. As KDB is getting ready to sell more shares,  this could cause further overhang on its shares over the next 3-6 months. 

GAPB MM – Actinver Research – GAP 1Q25: Solid Results, Beating Estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Operating Revenues of P$8.4 Bn were driven by solid aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue performance.
  • Total operating sales growth of 26% YoY was driven by a 41% YoY gain in non-aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by consolidating the cargo and free trade zone business at the Guadalajara airport (GWTC).
  • On the other hand, we highlight that aeronautical revenues (71% of total) increased by 21% YoY, propelled by a 16% increase in the aero-weighted average rate (reflecting GAP’s MDP tariffs approved last year) and a 4% gain in total PAX.

10 in 10 with ISDN Holdings – Positioned for Long-Term Growth with Strategic Expansion and Diversification

By Geoff Howie

  • ISDN’s core Industrial Automation segment contributes 94% of revenue, with China accounting for 71% of IA revenue.
  • Renewable Energy revenue doubled in 1H2024 due to successful commercialisation of three mini-hydropower plants in Indonesia.
  • ISDN maintains a dividend policy of distributing 25% of net profit attributable to shareholders as dividends.

OMAB US – Actinver Research – OMA 1Q25: Posted better-than-expected Q results (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • OMA’s quarterly results were better than expected by the consensus and our estimates.
  • Total EBITDA came in at P$2.4 Bn (+3% above our estimate and +5% above the consensus expectation) with a 16% YoY gain.
  • The EBITDA margin was 74.9%, an implicit 0.3 pp.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 29 April (Alfen | e-commerce (logistics) sector)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Alfen | strong demand to develop BESS • E-commerce (logistics) sector | UK government reviewing duty-free exemption threshold

Herc Holdings: The Mega Project Pipeline Is A Pivotal Growth Lever!

By Baptista Research

  • Herc Holdings’ latest earnings provide a comprehensive view of the company’s current operational and financial standing.
  • Viewing the data from a neutral perspective, both positive and negative aspects emerge that can inform an investment thesis.
  • On the positive side, Herc Holdings continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions.

IPower, Inc. – Assuming Coverage: Diving into the Puts and Takes of Tariffs; We See a Silver Lining!

By Water Tower Research

  • We are assuming coverage of iPower (IPW). The company sells consumer products on multiple online marketplaces, but primarily on Amazon (AMZN), where it is both a vendor (i.e., AMZN purchases inventory directly under its “Vendor Central” program and labels it as “Sold by Amazon”, which represents 80- 90% of IPW’s sales to AMZN) as well as a third-party (3P) seller.
  • The company has also started leveraging its AMZN relationship and experience to support other sellers in an initiative called “SuperSuite”, where it reports revenue as a mix of product sales and services.
  • Hydroponics, which was once dominant, is now <10% of sales.

AKTOR (GROUP) S.A. Common Stock – March 4, 2025

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • Aktor Group of Companies is a leading diversified infrastructure conglomerate in Greece with significant and expanding presence across Southeastern Europe.
  • The Company’s shares are listed in the Athens Stock Exchange since 2001.
  • Additionally, Aktor’s share is included in a series of national indices, such as ATHEX_ESG, FTSE, FTSE_IN, HELMSI, FTSEA, ATG (Athens General Composite). 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Dickson Concepts Intl, PointsBet Holdings , Fujitsu General, Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim, Aeon Co Ltd, Fonterra Co-Operative Group, BYD, Eco-Shop Marketing and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better
  • Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable
  • Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash
  • Fujitsu General (6755) – Deal Starts Early, Trades Tight – Done Deal
  • Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago
  • PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions
  • Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look
  • Fonterra (FCG NZ)’s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles
  • BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies
  • Eco-Shop IPO: Peers Have Shined Through Turmoil, Eco Still Cheaper


Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better

By David Blennerhassett

  • Dickson Concepts (113 HK) (DC)’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding 61.98%, have tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held, at HK$7.20/share (best & final).
  • That compares to DC’s net cash (as at 30 Sept 2024) of HK$7.44/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$2.16/share. 
  • The IFA will cite liquidity and DC’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and perhaps even “fair”. It is neither. Minorities should vote this down. But probably won’t …

Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 26th Feb 2025, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Mixi (2121 JP) at A$1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
  • PointsBet rebuffed key (smaller) rival Betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s (previously known as  BlueBet) ostensibly higher non-binding cash/scrip; and refuted Betr’s claim that it’s Offer was fully funded.  
  • Betr has returned with, what appears to be, an all cash offer of A$1.20/share, fully-funded/underwritten. Betr’s Offer still requires confirmatory due diligence. Importantly, Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake.

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash

By Arun George

  • Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) disclosed a Bermuda scheme offer from the controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) at HK$7.20, a 50.6% premium to the last close price.  
  • The offer is final. While the offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is below net cash. 
  • No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and retail seems supportive (lowering the risk of the headcount test). The offer, while light, will likely succeed.  

Fujitsu General (6755) – Deal Starts Early, Trades Tight – Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • The Paloma-Rheem Tender Offer for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) was expected to start in early July but is starting 10 weeks earlier. Big win for arbs. 
  • This was going to be a done deal. It didn’t trade rich to terms and it’s tough to see why activists would push when they haven’t pushed for years.
  • The deal is now trading tight. Long arbs should probably re-allocate. Those hiding their beta here should hide their beta elsewhere.

Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH) plans to raise up to US$234m via its A/H listing.
  • HDNET is a specialized manufacturer of PV cells which are used in making PV modules.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s recent performance and other deal dynamics, as well as valuations.

PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr (BBT AU) Returns with Financing, a Blocking Stake, and Dubious Assumptions

By Arun George

  • BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has returned with a non-binding proposal for PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), which it claims is worth A$1.20 to A$1.50+ per PBH share.
  • Betr has also acquired a 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s A$1.06 scheme offer. Betr’s offer is higher primarily due to questionable assumptions in the presentation.
  • Betr has secured over A$260 million in cash funding. Mixi can either let the scheme fail or switch to an off-market takeover offer.

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
  • Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
  • Our screen yields 30 stocks – 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists – mostly from Japanese property.

Fonterra (FCG NZ)’s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 16th May 2024, dairy co-operative Fonterra (FCG NZ) announced a possible partial/full divestment of its global Consumer business, in addition to its Oceania and Sri Lanka integrated businesses.
  • Last November, Fonterra said it would proceed with the sale process of these business, via a trade dale or IPO. Market valuations were upward of NZ$4bn for the “Mainland Group”. 
  • However, the spin-off hit a snag after a NSW court ruled Fonterra may need to renegotiate a long-term branding agreement with Bega Cheese (BGA AU) should the divestment proceed. 

BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Over the past five trading days, BYD (1211 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
  • Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 88% of all strategies, with a bias towards bearish views.
  • Lottery Trades: a recent trend, observed in other stocks as well, manifests itself in BYD (1211 HK). A lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. 

Eco-Shop IPO: Peers Have Shined Through Turmoil, Eco Still Cheaper

By Nicholas Tan

  • Eco-Shop Marketing (ECO MY)  is looking to raise up to US$241m in its upcoming Malaysia IPO.
  • It is the largest dollar chain in Malaysia, as per the number of stores it operates, as of 31 October 2024.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, Syngene International Ltd, PegBio, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences , Revelation Biosciences , Physiomics, Merus NV and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Sichuan Biokin A/H Listing: Good Time for Listing
  • Why Syngene International’s FY26 Will Be a Transition Year?
  • PegBio 派格生物 Pre-IPO: R&D Deceleration
  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Tuoyi Gains Momentum; Losses Narrow; New Geographies Open Up
  • REVB: New Target Market Announced
  • Hybridan Research: Physiomics plc
  • Merus NV – ACF Thematic Oncology Lung Cancer Cough LCC 25042025


Sichuan Biokin A/H Listing: Good Time for Listing

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Sichuan Biokin reported 2024 results, with a large chunk of revenue from its product licensing to BMS.
  • We analyzed its key products’ current clinical trials and upcoming milestones. We also look at peer performance.
  • Overall, we are of the view that many factors bode well for Biokin’s H-share listing

Why Syngene International’s FY26 Will Be a Transition Year?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN) guided for mid-single digit revenue growth and lower EBITDA margins in FY26, following a mixed performance in FY25.
  • The moderated outlook is primarily due to the initial operational costs and depreciation from the new US biologics facility and a normalization of inventory levels for a key client.
  • Focus shifts to the successful integration and ramp-up of new capacities and the potential for underlying growth in key segments to materialize beyond the transient FY26.

PegBio 派格生物 Pre-IPO: R&D Deceleration

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio is looking at raising up to USD 100m to list in Hong Kong.
  • We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals and a brief valuation.
  • We also took a look at changes to its prospectus. The company filed an updated version. We are taking a close look.

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Tuoyi Gains Momentum; Losses Narrow; New Geographies Open Up

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) reported 32% revenue growth during 1Q25, driven by toripalimab in China. 10 out of total 12 approved indications of the drug were included in NRDL.
  • Toripalimab was launched in the U.S. in January 2024 and reported ~$19M revenue for 2024. Approvals received in new geographies like India, UK, Singapore, Australia etc.
  • Loss narrowed to RMB 239M in 1Q25 from RMB 307M in 1Q24 as the company slowly and steadily optimizes the R&D spend.

REVB: New Target Market Announced

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Revelation Biosciences is a life sciences company whose development of immunologic-based therapies is based on the well-established biology of phosphorylated hexaacyl disaccharide (PHAD) and its effect on the innate immune system.
  • The company announced that it is targeting a new target indication with its Gemini treatment, the prevention of infection in burn patients.
  • This opens up Gemini to a large new market and expands the potential revenue generation of the company.

Hybridan Research: Physiomics plc

By Hybridan

  • Three contracts have been announced since the Interim report on 6 March and three peer reviewed scientific articles have been published so far this year.
  • It includes sales from new clients in new therapeutic areas, which not only builds our confidence in the anticipated 31.5% increase in revenue for YE June 2025, but is also positive for FY June 2026.
  • A contract was reported on 17 March with a brand-new client in the field of Antibody Drug Conjugates (ADCs).

Merus NV – ACF Thematic Oncology Lung Cancer Cough LCC 25042025

By ACF Equity Research

  • Lung Cancer Cough (LCC) is an under-served, perhaps unserved therapeutic subsegment of the Lung Cancer/Oncology market.
  • 57-65% of early diagnosis lung cancer patients suffer from LCC, it is a highly debilitating condition.
  • The US lung cancer therapeutics market consensus values range from ~USD 29.9bn in 2023 to ~USD 71.3bn in 2034, suggesting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% over our 10 year forecast period.

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Daily Brief ESG: Hurdles to Shareholder Proposal Passage Are Still High and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Hurdles to Shareholder Proposal Passage Are Still High, but the Announcement Effect Is Significant


Hurdles to Shareholder Proposal Passage Are Still High, but the Announcement Effect Is Significant

By Aki Matsumoto

  • There’re signs, with domestic institutional investors gradually becoming more willing to consider shareholder proposals. However, the hurdle to passage is still high, as shareholder proposals weren’t approved at March AGMs.
  • Regarding proposals that are easy for domestic institutional investors to mechanically approve/disapprove, such as the number of independent directors and female directors, companies are expected to raise the level formally.
  • Since the announcement effect of shareholder proposals is significant, it is expected that companies that did not pass shareholder proposals this time will launch initiatives to strengthen shareholder returns.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): HK Strategy: Sell in May and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!
  • Chartered Insights: The Fallout of Indo-Pak Trade Suspension April,2025
  • US Banks – Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign
  • Ohayo Japan | Flat Ahead of Big Tech Earnings
  • Japan – New Loan Officer Survey Is Positive for Lending Growth, for Banks, Underlying Economy
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly: Gen Z Pushes RTO; Chinese Imports Drop
  • Biopharma Week in Review: Makary Sparked FDA Optimism; Growing Pushback on HHS Changes
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Westwater Resources


HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Statistics supported “Sell in May, go away” for the HSI. Since 2013, the average return for May is -2%, and is negative in 8 out of the last 12 years.
  • On average, May is the worst month since 2020, too. This even eclipsed the month of Oct, which is widely believed to be normally the worst month.
  • If a weak May happens, the heavily weighted yet strongly performed constituents like BYD (1211 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) are to suffer. 

Chartered Insights: The Fallout of Indo-Pak Trade Suspension April,2025

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Pakistan’s suspension of bilateral trade with India impacts supply chains, but India’s diversified trade routes through third countries like Dubai and Singapore provide resilience.  
  • India’s trade surplus with Pakistan is at risk, particularly in key sectors like pharmaceuticals, tea, and fertilizers, which could cause supply disruptions in Pakistan.
  • India’s economy remains largely unaffected due to negligible imports of $0.48 Million, while Pakistan faces heightened inflation and shortages of critical goods, deepening economic strain.

US Banks – Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

By Daniel Tabbush

  • A commercial & industrial (C&I) loan commitment is a commitment to lend that a bank provides a company for a fee, so that draw-down can be immediate, when needed
  • Granular quarterly data from the Fed shows unused C&I loan commitments down USD142bn QoQ in 4Q24 or -5.2% QoQ.
  • The only other time there was such a sharp contraction was in 1Q20 when it was -12.5% QoQ or where it was down USD266bn QoQ.

Ohayo Japan | Flat Ahead of Big Tech Earnings

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks ended mixed, recovering from early losses as investors focused on upcoming Big Tech earnings and economic data
  • Hitachi unveiled a three-year management plan targeting growth through artificial intelligence with a 500 billion yen investment in new businesses
  • Komatsu forecasts a 30% decline in net profit to 309 billion yen, driven by a 79 billion yen cost increase from U.S. tariffs and yen appreciation

Japan – New Loan Officer Survey Is Positive for Lending Growth, for Banks, Underlying Economy

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The BOJ released its loan officer survey on 21 April which is generally positive for lending demand at firms and eased credit standards (willingness to lend)
  • Demand for credit over past 3 months for firms, 43 respondents were about the same, 6 were moderately stronger, 1 substantially stronger. No respondents were weaker
  • Lending policies saw most respondents unchanged, but there were some as ‘eased somewhat’ and 1 ‘eased considerably’ with no respondents reporting tightening

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly: Gen Z Pushes RTO; Chinese Imports Drop

By Water Tower Research

  • Market retracement as policy volatility remains high.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was up 4.8%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was up 4.9%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index improved by 9.7% as the broader indices surged higher.
  • Gen Z pushing for Return-to-Office (1). Over the past year, many firms have begun pushing harder for employees to return to the office in order to enhance corporate culture, improve learning and networking opportunities for employees, and enhance organizational agility and innovation.

Biopharma Week in Review: Makary Sparked FDA Optimism; Growing Pushback on HHS Changes

By Water Tower Research

  • FDA Commissioner Martin Makary injected some regulatory optimism with his first public comments, advocating for accelerated drug approval pathways.
  • While biopharma headlines were a roller coaster, investors appeared ready to grasp any positive news, despite more signs of FDA dysfunction.
  • In an E&Y report reviewed by Reuters, 25% pharma tariffs would increase drug costs by $51 billion, leading to either 12.9% higher prices or reductions in R&D efforts and workforce. 

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Westwater Resources

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up 4.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 4.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.1%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 6.4%).
  • Energy Technology (12.6% of the index) was up 5.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.1% of the index) was up 5.6%, ClimateTech Mining was down 1.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.3% of the index) was up 5.8%.
  • Top 10 Performers: AMY, PLL, AVL, IRBT, SLI, COMM, PE, NGPHF, MEOH, HSC

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Daily Brief ECM: Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky
  • KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing
  • Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits
  • Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Another Insurance IPO Possibility on the Horizon
  • Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

  • Korea Development Bank (KDB) plans to raise around US$740m via selling around 5%+ stake in Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS).
  • HO’s shares have nearly tripled since the start of the year, and the company reported its results today.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing

By Sanghyun Park

  • KDB sells 4.3% of total shares, offloading about one fifth of its holdings. The price range was 81,265–81,710 won, at an 8.51–9.00% discount, totaling 1.056–1.062 trillion won.
  • With more float and passive buying (KOSPI 200) potential, plus shipbuilding momentum, the stock’s pullback likely won’t exceed today’s discount — it might be worth taking a swing.
  • There’s buzz KDB might sell its HMM stake through block trades, like Hanwha Ocean. However, with HMM’s cash reserves, a tender offer seems more likely to drive stock action instead.

Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Ather Energy (1207922D IN) IPO opened today (April 28, 2025) with a price band of Rs 304-321 per share, and will remain open until April 30, 2025. 
  • This insight focuses on our takeaways from visiting various Ather Showroom and Service Centers across the Country. 
  • The product quality, service feedback and product positioning is relatively better than competition. The product is good, business probably not. 

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (GXNCM) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CMBI and CLSA.
  • It’s a leading Chinese noodle restaurants operator in China, operating under the Xiao Noodles brand, offering value-for-money cuisines.
  • Under its dual model of corporate-owned and franchising, it focuses on corporate-owned restaurants in first-tier & new first-tier cities in China.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Another Insurance IPO Possibility on the Horizon

By IPO Boutique

  • Aspen Insurance Holdings filed for its IPO in December 2023 and saw its filing refreshed in December 2024 and once again on March 20th, 2025.
  • This company was acquired by private-equity titan Apollo Global in a transaction announced in August 2018 and closing in February 2019. 
  • For the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, they wrote $4,609 million in gross written premiums marking a 16.2% increase from the same period in 2023. 

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.
  • Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.
  • Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to Baicha Baidao.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns
  • Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation
  • Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
  • Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer
  • Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share
  • Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair
  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895
  • Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive
  • Potential Takeovers, Legal Battles, and Strategic Reviews: Key Updates on THTX, SWTX, LQDA and More
  • Event Driven: Mahindra & Mahindra Acquired SML Isuzu, Strengthening Presence in CV


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns

By Arun George

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP) shares were set to hit the daily upper limit of JPY16,225 due to press reports of a privatisation bid valuing it at JPY6 trillion. 
  • Toyota Industries confirmed receiving a going-private proposal from a special purpose company, while Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said it is considering all possibilities, including a partial investment. 
  • There are still several unknowns, including the price, the identity of the offeror, potential irrevocable commitments, the financing structure, and the timeline. 

Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local traders are betting SK Inc will preemptively announce a treasury share cancellation before the June election, positioning it as the center of the regime change momentum play.
  • From a trading perspective, SK Inc could rally as a “buyback stock” and offer NAV gap trading opportunities.
  • Another option could be an event-driven hedge strategy: go long on SK and short index futures post-election. If Lee Jae-myung wins, SK could outperform, but the broader market may drop.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

By Brian Freitas

  • Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV. 
  • Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
  • There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.
  • The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management opposes the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.   
  • Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.

Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share

By David Blennerhassett

  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP), a property/hotel play, has announced a best-and-final conditional S$0.895/share cash Offer, a 27% to undisturbed and a lifetime high, from the controlling Teo family.
  • If Amara sounds familiar, in November 2023, the family launched  a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share as discussed in Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer.
  • This new Offer has a 90% acceptance condition. Irrevocables tally 90.58%. Done and done. 

Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in Sinarmas Land (SML SP) not held.
  • Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.
  • The IFA agreed and said “Not Fair but Reasonable”, with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.

Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895

By Arun George

  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP) has disclosed a voluntary conditional offer from a three-member consortium at S$0.895 per share, a 27.0% premium to the last close price. 
  • Irrevocables, including from the 2023 VGO offeror, represent 90.58% of the outstanding shares, ensuring that the 90% minimum acceptance condition will be satisfied and the offer will be declared unconditional. 
  • The offer price is final. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high, and is 49.2% above the 2023 VGO price. 

Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Lionsgate Entertainment (LGFA/LGFB) recently approved the spin-off of Lionsgate Studios (LION). The spin-off should happen within a few weeks.

  • Lionsgate Studio has carved out a niche as a lean, franchise-focused independent studio that thrives in the mid-budget, IP-driven segment of the entertainment industry.

  • It punches above its weight by targeting profitable genre films, franchise extensions, and strategic licensing — while avoiding the financial risk of mega-budget blockbusters.


Potential Takeovers, Legal Battles, and Strategic Reviews: Key Updates on THTX, SWTX, LQDA and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Theratechnologies (THTX) received a non-binding takeover offer from Future Pak, with a potential 62% upside including CVR.
  • Merck KGaA is nearing a $47/share acquisition of SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX), with no competing bidders reported.
  • Liquidia (LQDA) and UTHR are engaged in legal battles over patent infringement and Yutrepia’s approval, affecting market valuations.

Event Driven: Mahindra & Mahindra Acquired SML Isuzu, Strengthening Presence in CV

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) is acquiring a 58.96% stake in SML Isuzu through SPAs with Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) and Isuzu Motors (7202 JP), along with open offer.
  • The acquisition aims to significantly strengthen M&M’s position in the >3.5T commercial vehicle segment, doubling its market share initially and targeting further growth.  
  • This strategic move signals M&M’s clear intent to become a full-range player in commercial vehicles, leveraging synergies in product, network, and manufacturing. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Greenko Energy, Vedanta Resources, Reliance Industries
  • Last Friday, US Treasuries tightened by 5-8 bps across the curve. US equities continued to recover, albeit at a slow pace, with the S&P 500 up by 0.7% and Nasdaq rising 1.3%.
  • The US economy is projected to register a weak 0.4% annualised growth rate in Q1/25, according to the US government’s initial estimate, with a large trade deficit and consumer fatigue contributing to the slowdown, even before the tariff-related upheaval.

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

By Leandro Gubler

  • Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook
  • Fitch Affirms Cemex at ‘BBB-‘; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile
  • Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike
  • Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25
  • Indirect Beneficiaries of the Smash Hit Movie “King of Kings” In the Korean Stock Market
  • Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot
  • Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind
  • Is IBM the Dark Horse of AI? $6 Billion in Bookings Signal a New Era!
  • Lam Research Is Dominating Advanced Packaging & NAND Upgrades But Does This Create A Prime Buy Opportunity?
  • Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value


IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India is set to witness INR 4.02 trillion worth of Pre-IPO shares becoming tradeable by June 2025, lead to huge selling pressure among various IPO stocks.
  • We identified 6 Companies where lock-in is about to expire and analyzed their current status in terms of their business and industry environment.
  • Some fundamentally good companies also provide opportunities at a good price due to a fall because of selling pressure in these companies after lock-in expiry.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +19.5% Premium; Short Interest in ADRs Jumps to New Highs; Open Fresh Short of Spread at 20% or Higher
  • ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Opening New Short
  • CHT: -1.0% Discount; Consider Going Long the Spread; ADR Short Interest Rises to New Highs

Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25

By Ming Lu

  • Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25, while the number was 23% in 2024.
  • The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024 and reached 54% YoY in March 2025.
  • We believe, even without production capacity expansion, BEV deliveries can grow significantly YoY in 2Q25 and 3Q25.

Indirect Beneficiaries of the Smash Hit Movie “King of Kings” In the Korean Stock Market

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the indirect beneficiaries of the global hit movie “King of Kings” in the Korean stock market. 
  • The King of Kings is a 3D animation movie produced by a Korean company called Mofac Studio (unlisted). This film made $45mn in N. American box office in 10 days.
  • Dexter Studios, Wysiwyg Studios, and GiantStep (listed competitors to Mofac Studios) are up on average 17% in the past one month. 

Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot

By Nitin Mangal

  • On April 26, 2025, Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) (RKFL) disclosed that during the annual physical verification of inventory for the financial year ending March 31, 2025, there were discrepancies observed.
  • The company has appointed independent external agencies to dig-out the findings, but the fact that management expects a 4-5% erosion of net-worth has caught the attention of many.
  • While this exposes the accounting and governance, the bigger picture is that it also exposes a big audit blind spot relating to inventory discrepancy threshold of 10%.

Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind

By Nitin Mangal

  • Ather Energy (1207922D IN) kickstarts its INR 29.8 bn worth IPO this week, comprising of fresh issue worth INR 26.3 bn and 11.1 mn OFS valued at INR 3.5 bn. 
  • Ather, a pioneer, was the first entity to launch a smart scooter back in 2018. The company currently is 4th largest EV player with a market share of 10.7%. 
  • Although it shows strong R&D profile and a positive warranty trend, Ather continues its heavy cash burn and has exorbitant wages, loss of market share, increased discounting, etc.

Is IBM the Dark Horse of AI? $6 Billion in Bookings Signal a New Era!

By Baptista Research

  • International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) delivered solid performance in its first-quarter 2025 results, exhibiting a combination of strengths and challenges as it continues to pursue its strategic focus on hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence (AI).
  • IBM reported a total revenue of $14.5 billion for the quarter, marking a 2% increase at constant currency from the previous year.
  • This growth was primarily driven by robust performance in the Software segment which rose by 9% thanks to advancements across Red Hat, Automation, Data, and Transaction Processing.

Lam Research Is Dominating Advanced Packaging & NAND Upgrades But Does This Create A Prime Buy Opportunity?

By Baptista Research

  • Lam Research reported a strong performance in the March 2025 quarter, exceeding the midpoint of guidance across key financial metrics such as revenue, gross margin, operating margin, and EPS.
  • The company achieved record foundry revenues, attributing much of this success to robust execution and strategic investments in manufacturing and operations, leading to improved gross margins post-Novellus merger.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy

By Rahul Jain

  • Reliance plans to invest Rs40,000–45,000 crore (30% of total capex) into its New Energy business over FY25–FY28.
  • Solar PV manufacturing (10 GW), Green Hydrogen (electrolyzers + hydrogen production), Energy Storage (30 GWh batteries), Biogas (CBG plants), and Carbon Capture initiatives.
  • New Energy could contribute 8–10% of Reliance’s total EBITDA over the next 10 years as projects mature and commercial operations ramp up.

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand’s rally looks sentiment-driven, not fundamental: 1Q25 results were decent but not a major beat.
  • Valuation gap widened to unjustifiable levels: Delta Thailand trades at 52x trailing PER vs. Delta Taiwan at 25x.
  • Delta Taiwan remains the structurally stronger,cheaper exposure to the group’s long-term growth themes.

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Daily Brief Macro: UK Politics: Labour Day and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK Politics: Labour Day, Not Labour’s Day
  • Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks
  • De-Risking Returns, This Time Towards America
  • Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb
  • Steno Signals #194 — The March 2020 Parallel Intensifies
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April
  • Trump Versus the Fed: President Will Get His Way
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 April 2025
  • CX Daily: China’s Pet Boom Bites Back
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – ACES, Alfamart, and Shakey’s Pizza


UK Politics: Labour Day, Not Labour’s Day

By Alastair Newton

  • The balance of seats Labour loses to Reform UK, compared to the LibDems and Greens, could be crucial in internal party disputes.
  • The outcomes of the local elections on 1 May could significantly influence this balance.
  • A concurrent by-election also stands to have a significant impact on government policy.

Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • We use quantamental screens to identify overvalued stocks in Asia, with weak fundamentals – consistently low earnings growth, forecast return ratios less than cost of capital, and over-leveraged balance sheets.
  • We screen Asia-listed stocks above US$1bn market cap on declining EPS CAGR over next 2 years, less than 10% ROE, higher than 1x PEG and P/BV, more than 80% D/E.
  • We identify 30 stocks: 11 from HK/China, 9 from Japan, 4 from Taiwan, 3 from India, and one each from Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Financials, property, industrials dominate the list.

De-Risking Returns, This Time Towards America

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • After much talk about de-risking from China, countries are now applying the same lens in reviewing their economic, security, and technological dependencies on the US.
  • Countries will seek to expand and deepen trading links with other partners, but it will be hard to fully compensate for the closing down of the world’s largest consumer market.
  • No economic or geopolitical law mandates the existence of a global hegemon. The economic and security order is becoming more fragmented and decentralized.

Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Rubber products exports to the US falls 4.99% MoM in Feb  
  •  Product exports to China surge by 143.22% MoM in Feb  
  •  Rubber exports value in Feb soar to US$225.71 million  

Steno Signals #194 — The March 2020 Parallel Intensifies

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Monday from a sunny Copenhagen! We have been banging the drum on the similarities between the tariffs-cycle and the Covid-cycle over the past month, and we are increasingly confident that the playbook holds true.
  • The kind of stop/go dynamics look clearly similar as a policy shock nukes the cycle, while the “solution” is to roll back the shock gradually.
  • A lockdown before a reopening essentially.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could wane as expectations of improving supply and more muted end-user consumption incentivize blenders to keep low stocks.
  • High base oils margins could add to buyers’ preference to hold back amid concern about disconnect between high margins and prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
  • More muted regional demand would speed up recovery in supply as more plant maintenance draws to a close in coming weeks.

Trump Versus the Fed: President Will Get His Way

By Said Desaque

  • Financial markets were recently frightened by the spectre of President Trump replacing Fed Chairman Powell before his term expires, but the era of peak Fed credibility has elapsed.
  • President Trump’s criticism of the Fed has some validity. The nexus between the Fed and the Treasury during Biden administration became tighter, thereby helping to facilitate profligate fiscal policy conduct.
  • The Fed will not offer updated forward guidance until June, but markets are discounting three policy rate reductions in 2025. 

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 April 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Bank Indonesia maintains high rates despite economic strain; Korea shows early signs of slowdown with weak investment and trade data.

  • India’s domestic economy remains strong, but early PMI data’s significance is limited.

  • U.S. trade policy assumptions collapse as tariffs rise and the dollar weakens, exposing flaws in anti-China strategies.


CX Daily: China’s Pet Boom Bites Back

By Caixin Global

  • Pets / In Depth: China’s pet boom bites back
  • China-Brazil /Trade war is a trade opportunity for Brazil, São Paulo mayor says
  • Canton Fair /In Depth: Despite slowdown in U.S. orders, global buyers flock to China’s biggest trade fair

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – ACES, Alfamart, and Shakey’s Pizza

By Angus Mackintosh


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