Smartkarma Daily Briefs

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Hong Kong IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company is the largest listed condiments producer in mainland China which is seeking to raise up to HK$9.56 billion (US$1.22 billion) in Hong Kong listing.
It is offering 263.2 million shares at HK$35 to HK$36.30 each. The final offer price is expected to be announced on 17 June.
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food is the largest condiments company in China with strong brand power with loyal customers.

Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) & Sanhua (2050 HK): IPO Float Caps Limit Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) and Sanhua (2050 HK) are forecasted to be added to Global All-World at the December 2025 review.
Both securities are unlikely to meet the Global Standard float cap threshold before or after the lock-up expiry, based on the maximum offer price.
Sanhua (2050 HK) has a better chance of inclusion to Global Standard at the February 2026 review following the lock-up expiry as its float cap is closer to the threshold.

Foshan Haitian HK Offer: Pantry Staples at Pricey Valuations. Key Facts, Financials & More

By Devi Subhakesan

Foshan Haitian, already listed in Shanghai, is offering 263.2 million shares in Hong Kong to raise up to HKD9.56 billion (USD1.22 billion); Final offer price will be set by today.
HK offer price is pitched at an appealing 19%–22% discount to its A-share close, however valuations are pricing in growth expectations that may not align with the underlying business dynamics.
Foshan Haitian operates in the condiments and sauces segment—a mature, saturated and competitive market with limited room for meaningful margin or volume expansion.

FWD IPO: What Are We Buying?

By Alec Tseung

While FWD has achieved strong growth in certain key markets, its overall new business growth rate didn’t differ significantly from the peers, AIA and Prudential.
Compared to the peers, it offers more exposure to Thailand/Cambodia, in terms of APE and VNB mix. But, the peers still have better scale in these markets.
We struggle to develop the thesis unless FWD’s valuation is really attractive. It’s also not expecting to pay any dividends in the near future while both peers do.

Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Faces Continued Headwinds

By Arusha Das

Physical-to-INE spreads indicate sluggish near-term demand
Rising availability and tepid downstream suggests prices may remain under pressure
April’s import and export data highlights the caution in the market

Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings (PHIP Updates) – The Outlook Has Changed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Given that leading luxury groups are inclined to abandon agency and “get involved directly” in the beauty/fragrance category, such trend implies the risk of losing key suppliers in the future
Although there’re “reusable aspects” in management, expenses spent on brand channel are big, which makes it impossible for profits to benefit from “scale effect”.So, low profit margin is the norm.
Considering the risk of economic recession/sluggish consumption, Eternal Beauty’s net profit may experience negative growth in FY2025. It would gradually recover in FY2026-2027. Valuation could be lower than peers.

Bayzed Health Group IPO: Shows Flare; Still a Tough Road Ahead; Can Avoid The Issue

By Tina Banerjee

Bayzed Health Group (BHG HK) launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$ 900 million. The company plans to sell 133 million shares at HK$4.22–6.75 per share.
The company plans to utilize the IPO proceeds to continuously strengthening the full-cycle oncology healthcare services primarily through purchasing medical equipment and recruiting medical professionals.
Bayzed Health is an oncology healthcare group which posted revenue of RMB 1,189 million in 2024, up by 11% YoY. Gross margins improve; net losses narrow too.

TransThera Sciences (Nanjing) IPO: Uniqueness of Lead Candidate Provides Comfort for Long-Term

By Tina Banerjee

TransThera Sciences, a clinical-stage biopharma, filed to list on HK. The company aims to raise HK$200M by offering 15M shares. The offer price is set at HK$13.15 ($1.7) per share.
The IPO opened on June 13 and closes on June 18. Allocations are expected on June 20, while trading is anticipated to commence on June 23.
The company intends to use the IPO proceeds to fund the research and development of core product candidate, Tinengotinib for various types of solid tumors.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Tata Motors
US Treasury yields rose 3-5 bps across the curve on Friday, as the surge in oil prices amid the Iran-Israel conflict stoked renewed inflation concerns. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 4 bps to 3.95%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 4 bps to 4.40%.
Equities retreated, with tech- and travel-related stocks declining, while energy producers and defence stocks rose. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,977, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.3% to 19,407.

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Jun 16

Most Read: Cgn Mining, Hyundai Rotem Company, Genesis Minerals, Wanguo International Mining, Pop Mart International Group L, Santos Ltd, Samsung Electronics, Pilbara Minerals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar
MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?
Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025.
We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%.

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar

Hyundai Rotem, RENK Group and Karman Holdings will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.
The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs

There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&P/ASX 50 Index trackers.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

The MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy index represents the performance of the biggest and the most liquid companies in the Uranium and Nuclear industries.
Cgn Mining (1164 HK) will be an ADD and Endesa SA (ELE SM) will be a DELETE in June 2025.
There are also some big capping flows so we expect a one-way flow of US$227mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 15.7%.

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?

By Devi Subhakesan

Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK) opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings.

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact

A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao

By Sanghyun Park

Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm >35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) will be deleted from the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) after the close on 20 June.
The two deletions, capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.03% at the rebalance. That leads to a round-trip trade of A$294m.
Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is also a deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index at the same time and there will be more passive selling from those trackers.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief ECM: CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case
ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi
Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Placement Good, A Long Term Bet for Sure
Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
Inventurus IPO Lockup: US$2.4bn Lockup Release; Pre-IPO Investors May Monetize

CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.
In CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on low net take rates, unfavourable trends of key cost items, expected losses in the current year and a stretched balance sheet.

ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) launched its IPO, while Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) has been pre-marketing.
On the placements front, there were a number of large deals acros the region, along with some large lockup expiries.

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Placement Good, A Long Term Bet for Sure

By Tina Banerjee

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) is placing 41M H shares for subscription at HK$25.35 per H Share.
Shanghai Junshi intends to use 70% of the net proceeds from the placement for innovative drug development and balance 30% for general corporate purposes such as replenishment of working capital.
Early green shoots in the form of lower R&D expenses and narrowing losses. Junshi offers for a good long-term bet as the company turning profitable will take some time.

Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The positioning of Bayzed is just “a supplement to public hospitals system”, with limited scale and competitiveness, which is a point that investors may need to be aware of.
A big problem in the operation of Bayzed is the loss status/weak profitability. At current gross margin level, it would be difficult for Bayzed to deliver good returns for investors.
Valuation of Bayzed should be lower than Inkon Life Technology and Hygeia. The Pre-IPO valuation is not cheap, and the valuation upside potential may be limited considering weak profitability.

Inventurus IPO Lockup: US$2.4bn Lockup Release; Pre-IPO Investors May Monetize

By Nicholas Tan

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) raised around US$295m in its India IPO in Dec 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
It is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia, with a core focus in the US.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths – What and How? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths – What and How?
Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

China & HK Strategy: Rare Earths – What and How?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Rare earth is an important area in the US-China trade negotiation, as China processes 90% of the world’s supply, and the US depends on China for 70% of its imports.
China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH), China Minmetals Rare Earth (000831 CH), and Shenghe Resources Holding (600392 CH) are the main listed A-shares.
JL Mag Rare-Earth (6680 HK) and China Rare Earth Holdings (769 HK) are the key Hong Kong-listed ones. They all witnessed better YoY profit in the latest reported results.

Tactical Trading -Oil Joins the Commodity Rally

By Rikki Malik

Oil’s positive reaction to bearish news was a signal to go long.
Regardless of the outcome of the current fighting between Israel and Iran, oil has likely bottomed.
We add oil and related equities to the inflation basket

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Jun 16

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 13th): BYD and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 13th): BYD, Meituan, CCB, Innovent Biologics, Petrochina, Tencent
A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 13th): Tigermed, Bank Of Chongqing, Sinopec Oilfield Service
HK Short Interest Weekly: Ping An, Catl, Cspc Pharma, Xpeng, Lenovo, Li Auto, Jd Health
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine
Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Genting Malaysia, Axiata, Top Glove, Sp Setia, Dialog
KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 13th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI, Hanwha Aerospace
Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): TMBThanachart Bank, Bangkok Dusit

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 13th): BYD, Meituan, CCB, Innovent Biologics, Petrochina, Tencent

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for BYD, Meituan, CCB, Innovent Biologics, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Xpeng.

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 13th): Tigermed, Bank Of Chongqing, Sinopec Oilfield Service

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 155 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 72.7% as of Jun 13th.
The average A-H premium changed by -5.0ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, energy, health care and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Tigermed, Bank Of Chongqing, Sinopec Oilfield Service, Livzon Pharmaceutical, COSCO Shipping Energy.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Ping An, Catl, Cspc Pharma, Xpeng, Lenovo, Li Auto, Jd Health

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 6th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Ping An, Catl, Cspc Pharma, Xpeng, Lenovo, Li Auto, Jd Health.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated holding was USD1,057.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD392mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components, United Integrated Services, Eva Airways, Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Yang Ming Marine, Chicony Electronics, Ctbc Financial.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated short interest was USD25.7bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine, Jinan Acetate Chemical, Novatek Microelectronics, Compeq Manufacturing, Nanya Technology.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Genting Malaysia, Axiata, Top Glove, Sp Setia, Dialog

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated short interest is USD349m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Genting Malaysia, Axiata, Top Glove, Sp Setia, Dialog.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 13th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI, Hanwha Aerospace

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated holding was USD583.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,005mln. We tabulates the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI, Hanwha Aerospace, Hyundai Motor.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): TMBThanachart Bank, Bangkok Dusit

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jun 13th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in TMBThanachart Bank, Bangkok Dusit.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao
Merger Arb Mondays (16 June) – Mayne, Pointsbet, Fengxiang, HKBN, Seven & I, Shibaura, Smartpay
Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact

A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao

By Sanghyun Park

Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm >35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.

Merger Arb Mondays (16 June) – Mayne, Pointsbet, Fengxiang, HKBN, Seven & I, Shibaura, Smartpay

By Arun George

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Nippon Road (1884 JP), AEON Mall (8905 JP), Nissin Corp (9066 JP).

Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover

By David Blennerhassett

Aussie O&G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle
The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share.
Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief Macro: US Corporate Profits Expectations Remain Resolute Despite Tariff Uncertainties and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

US Corporate Profits Expectations Remain Resolute Despite Tariff Uncertainties
A Preview of the Trump Fed
How to Capitalize on Narrative Volatility

US Corporate Profits Expectations Remain Resolute Despite Tariff Uncertainties

By Said Desaque

US equities have displayed remarkable resilience since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, notably without any promise of immediate help from the Fed via policy easing.
Although expected S&P500 EPS growth has been lowered for 2025, estimates for 2026 remain resolute, despite ongoing uncertainty about final tariff outcomes. Maintaining respectable productivity growth will be crucial.
The arrival of tariffs complicates the future business strategies of firms due to varying degrees of market competition and the unknown response of consumers to price increases.

A Preview of the Trump Fed

By Cam Hui

The Fed remains on hold and in wait-and-see mode as it assesses the inflationary tariffs against the backdrop of a weakening labour market.
The market is discounting two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025 and a rapid pace of cuts in 2026.
Future Fed policy will depend on how the market perceives the new Fed Chair’s affects the Fed’s inflation fighting credibility.

How to Capitalize on Narrative Volatility

By Cam Hui

The current market environment is characterized by high market volatility, which has manifested itself as narrative volatility.
We offer four ways to capitalize on the short-term volatility for traders.
The suggested trades are the combination of identifiable underlying trends and technical breaks as signals for short-term profit.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher
Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality
Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26
ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract
2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions
MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.
SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia
Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price
Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?

By Devi Subhakesan

Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK) opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality

Paladin reported a Q3 FY25 net loss of US$38M, impacted by non-cash impairments and ramp-up costs, though production at Langer Heinrich hit post-restart highs.
Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply driven by new reactor builds and SMR adoption.
At core EV/EBITDA of ~2.8x on US$70/lb uranium, valuations appear undemanding relative to long-life assets and sector-leading leverage to uranium prices.

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Resilient FY25 Margins: Despite a 17.5% revenue drop, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) expanded operating margins by 400bps through cost control and premium product mix.
Brand-Led Recovery in FY26: Signature launches, digital sales, and store optimization to drive Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) recovery and sustain high operating leverage.
Valuation Supported by Fundamentals: Valuation at 20.8x P/E (TTM) valuation justified by strong ROE (>20%), margin leadership, and stable dividend payout (~88%) versus regional jewellery peers.

ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract

By Michael Causton

The footwear retail sector is a one horse race, with that horse being ABC Mart.
It continues to grow at a respectable rate while increasingly diminutive rivals contract.
ABC Mart is expanding further into the apparel category too, providing more room for future growth.

2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions

By Andrei Zakharov

BILL Holdings shares have materially underperformed year-to-date and fell ~51%. Shares saw selling pressure post 2QFY25 earnings as results indicated weak outlook.
I see limited room for downside given current valuation of ~3x 2025E EV/Revenue (with ~13% growth) and recent acquisition of AvidXchange at a higher multiple.
I believe BILL’s current attractive valuation levels can be viewed as opportunity to unwind bearish positions and valuation looks more reasonable vs. peers, especially AvidXchange.

MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.

By Patrick Liao

We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.
Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.
Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

By Nicolas Baratte

2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.
2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).

Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price

By Douglas Kim

WSJ reported that Amazon and other major multinational in the US are actively considering on potentially issuing their own stablecoins. This could negatively impact card issuers such as Samsung Card.
Once stablecoins are legally approved in South Korea and some of the major merchants in Korea start to use stablecoins, the current revenue streams of Samsung Card could get disrupted.
Although the exact levels of revenue disruption still remain uncertain, many investors do not like uncertainty which means that some investors could start to reduce their holdings on Samsung Card.

Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

SHI reported robust Q1 2025 results with revenue of KRW 2.49T (+6% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 123B (+58% YoY), reflecting improved offshore project execution and margin expansion.
Management reiterated FY2025 guidance of KRW 10.5T revenue and KRW 630B operating profit, with offshore accounting for ~40% of new orders and a USD 9.8B full-year target
With LNG carrier replacement demand, FLNG ramp-up, and leadership in eco-vessels, SHI’s earnings trajectory supports its 22x FY27E P/E, despite execution and competition risks.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
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Jun 16

Daily Brief Industrials: Cgn Mining, Samsung Heavy Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining
Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

SHI reported robust Q1 2025 results with revenue of KRW 2.49T (+6% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 123B (+58% YoY), reflecting improved offshore project execution and margin expansion.
Management reiterated FY2025 guidance of KRW 10.5T revenue and KRW 630B operating profit, with offshore accounting for ~40% of new orders and a USD 9.8B full-year target
With LNG carrier replacement demand, FLNG ramp-up, and leadership in eco-vessels, SHI’s earnings trajectory supports its 22x FY27E P/E, despite execution and competition risks.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jun 16

Daily Brief Australia: Santos Ltd, Pilbara Minerals, Paladin Energy, Mayne Pharma, S&P/ASX 200 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m
Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality
Merger Arb Mondays (16 June) – Mayne, Pointsbet, Fengxiang, HKBN, Seven & I, Shibaura, Smartpay
Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover
Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact

A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) will be deleted from the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) after the close on 20 June.
The two deletions, capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.03% at the rebalance. That leads to a round-trip trade of A$294m.
Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is also a deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index at the same time and there will be more passive selling from those trackers.

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality