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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings, Namoi Cotton Co Operative, Singamas Container Holdings, S&P 500 INDEX, Singapore Airlines, Titan International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • KLINE (9107) – More Profit, More Shareholder Return 3mo Buyback Inbound
  • Chilled & Frozen’s Target Opinion Statement; Chotto Matte (Four Counterbidders)
  • Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Bloom Times As Louis Dreyfus & Olam Agri Tangle
  • Singamas (716 HK): Net Cash 1.6x of Market Cap, Why Not Privatise?
  • Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight
  • Singapore Airlines – 4Q Likely to Extend the Theme of Earnings Normalization as FY25 Comes into View
  • TWI: Titan announces 1st quarter 2024 results and updates the investor community on industry conditions.


KLINE (9107) – More Profit, More Shareholder Return 3mo Buyback Inbound

By Travis Lundy

  • Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) today announced earnings. Ocean Network Express earnings were out earlier and beyond that, Consolidated Revs beat, OP faltered, but NP was spot on guidance.
  • Guidance for the year to March 2025 is well ahead of consensus on revenue, slightly ahead on OP, and just a wee bit ahead on NP. 
  • But the company raised its 5yr MTMP Shareholder Return from ¥500bn to ¥700bn and set a new ¥100bn (5.5%) buyback to be executed in the next 3 months.

Chilled & Frozen’s Target Opinion Statement; Chotto Matte (Four Counterbidders)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, after the close, Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) released a required (by the FIEA) Target Opinion Statement saying “Opinion Withheld.”
  • C&F notes that it had received 9 possible counter-proposals, offered due dili to a certain extent, and by May 1, had 4 binding offers. 
  • There are interesting competitive dynamics at play here, but cross-holding concentration matters. The question is… How much is enough?

Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Bloom Times As Louis Dreyfus & Olam Agri Tangle

By David Blennerhassett

  • Singapore’s Olam Agri and global commodity merchant Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) are duking it out for Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU), Australia’s largest cotton producer.
  • After both initially lobbed competing Schemes, both have now tabled off-market Offers – A$0.67/share from LDC, A$0.66/share from Olam – each contingent on a 50.1% acceptance hurdle, FIRB, and ACCC. 
  • LDC, currently holding 17%, announced it will reject Olam Agri’s Offer. Top shareholder Samuel Terry Asset Management, with 24.5%, is expected to support the winning (or superior) bid.  

Singamas (716 HK): Net Cash 1.6x of Market Cap, Why Not Privatise?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Singamas Container Holdings (716 HK) is interesting in that it has a net cash of US$300m (HK$2.35bn), but its market capitalisation is only HK$1.5bn. 
  • This is a possible privatisation candidate given the steep discount to cash. The thin trading volume made it difficult to function as a financing platform.
  • Business-Wise, it should have passed the trough as global container box plant utilisation is expected to improve in the next two years, driving profitability recovery.

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Over the past two weeks we’ve discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
  • Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
  • We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.

Singapore Airlines – 4Q Likely to Extend the Theme of Earnings Normalization as FY25 Comes into View

By Neil Glynn

  • We expect Singapore Airlines to report a disappointing 4Q24 on 15 May, as earnings normalisation continues.
  • Inflationary pressure is a key theme at SIA, with it suffering one of the highest levels of inflation in the APAC region.
  • Our forecasts for FY25, which suggest further earnings normalisation, are c.20% below consensus at the operating level.

TWI: Titan announces 1st quarter 2024 results and updates the investor community on industry conditions.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Titan International is a global manufacturer of off-the-road tires, wheels and undercarriages.
  • The company serves the agricultural, earthmoving / construction, and consumer markets.
  • Recent strategic actions have created higher margins in recent years and brought the leverage ratio down to 2.0x.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Nintendo, Hangzhou EZVIZ Network, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Silicon Motion Technology, Quint Digital , Globalwafers, Novatek Microelectronics Corp, Gaia, Pureprofile Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Nintendo (7974) | Negative Surprise….Not Really
  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 12% Vs Peers in 1 Month; Final Ranks & New Trade
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China
  • Silicon Motion: Leader in Powerful Niche for Edge AI Memory; Plus Key Wins for Data Center Solution
  • Quint Digital: The New Era of Raghav Bahal
  • GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Demand Was Weaker in 1H24F, and We Hope It Will Be Better in 2H24F.
  • Novatek (3034.TT): 1Q24 Sales Inline; 2Q24F Sales Guidance Below Consensuses
  • Novatek Seeing Soft Consumer Electronics Demand; Muted Forward Guidance; Shares Appear at Risk
  • Gaia, Inc. – Solid Top-Line Momentum Continues in 1Q24
  • Pureprofile Ltd – EBITDA margin guidance upgraded


Nintendo (7974) | Negative Surprise….Not Really

By Mark Chadwick

  • Operating profit: FY3/24 OP was 529 billion yen (+4.9% YoY) vs analyst estimates of 537 billion (1.5% miss)
  • FY3/25 Operating guidance is 400 billion yen, significantly below analyst expectations of 480 billions (-16% miss).
  • The initial market reaction may be negative, we would use that as an opportunity to buy into the stock for the cyclical upturn in FY3/26.

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 12% Vs Peers in 1 Month; Final Ranks & New Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In my last insight (link), I discussed how the rankings had to be monitored closely before finalizing the index change expectations for the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • Now that the reference period is complete, I have discussed my final expectations for the June 2024 review. The official index changes will be announced later this month.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan Tech Rallies Along With Rebound In Global Tech; Hon Hai, Asustek Top Gainers; KYEC a Top Loser After Announcing China Market Divestment
  • PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle 
  • ASMedia GDR Early Look – Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x 

Silicon Motion: Leader in Powerful Niche for Edge AI Memory; Plus Key Wins for Data Center Solution

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Silicon Motion’s lQ24 results confirmed the company’s end-demand strength as implied by previous Samsung and SK Hynix management commentary re: solid state memory.
  • Management has increased 2024E guidance, citing rising ASPs and strong demand due to its memory controller products’ usage in edge AI applications such as AI PCs and AI smartphones.
  • The street upgraded target prices across the board after the results; however we note the stock remains below its past acquistion offer price by Maxlinear and we see further upside.

Quint Digital: The New Era of Raghav Bahal

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Quint Digital (QUINT IN) announces alterations to its MoA, changing its name and expanding its digital ventures, including joint ventures and acquisitions.
  • Quintype Technologies India Limited’s impressive growth and the acquisition of Lee Enterprises (LEE US) highlight Quint Digital’s ambitions and potential.
  • Despite debt concerns, Quint Digital’s strategic investments in digital media and technology position it for substantial growth, potentially reshaping the digital publishing landscape.

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Demand Was Weaker in 1H24F, and We Hope It Will Be Better in 2H24F.

By Patrick Liao

  • 1Q24 revenue and GM are in line, but operating income at 24.3% was 1% below consensus.
  • GlobalWafers anticipates revenue in 2024 will likely be similar to 2023, which means 1H24 revenue could account for 45% of the 2024 yearly revenue.
  • The planned dividend payout for 2024 is NT$19.0, with NT$8.0 from 1H23 and NT$11 from 2H23. 

Novatek (3034.TT): 1Q24 Sales Inline; 2Q24F Sales Guidance Below Consensuses

By Patrick Liao

  • The 2Q24 revenue outlook is NT$24.4-25.5bn, which was below Bloomberg consensuses NTD$26.45bn. 
  • The company sees more aggressive stocking for TVs in 2Q24, but smartphone demand is soft in 2Q24.  
  • The dividend payout rate has been maintained at 80-85% over the past few years, with no significant changes expected.  

Novatek Seeing Soft Consumer Electronics Demand; Muted Forward Guidance; Shares Appear at Risk

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Novatek reported 1Q24 results yesterday after the Taiwan close; gross margin came in ahead of guidance and revenue was in-line.
  • Nevertheless, the company’s forward color regarding end market display applications demand in 2Q24 and 2024 was relatively muted.
  • Given the stock is at all-time highs and up about 25% since early February, we see the stock at risk of selling in the near-term. We rate Novatek as Underperform.

Gaia, Inc. – Solid Top-Line Momentum Continues in 1Q24

By Water Tower Research

  • Gaia reported strong 1Q24 results, with revenue of $21.7 million (up 11%), 33,000 net member additions for a total membership count of 839,000 (all-time high), and strong operating cash flow of $5.9 million.
  • International revenue growth was particularly strong at 20.4%, compared with respectable US growth of 3.7%.
  • Member acquisition costs decreased 10%, partly as a result of a focus on direct-to-paid marketing campaigns, whereby free trial periods are replaced by special incentives to lock in longer-term membership commitments at attractive rates. This also fueled healthy deferred revenue growth of $2.0 million during the quarter.

Pureprofile Ltd – EBITDA margin guidance upgraded

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
  • Pureprofile reported a 6% increase in Q3 FY24 revenue to $10.9m and a 49% decline in Q3 EBITDA to $0.5m versus the previous corresponding period (pcp).
  • Q3 is seasonally the weakest quarter for PPL and EBITDA was affected, in part, by the change in executive remuneration policy to cash-based payments.

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Daily Brief Health Care: WuXi XDC Cayman , Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical, Recce Ltd, Zimvie and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Wuxi XDC Lock-Up – US$300m Lockup Expiry Could See Some Selling Owing to the Regulatory Overhang
  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues
  • Recce Pharmaceuticals – Advances on several fronts
  • Zimvie Inc (ZIMV) – Tuesday, Feb 6, 2024


Wuxi XDC Lock-Up – US$300m Lockup Expiry Could See Some Selling Owing to the Regulatory Overhang

By Clarence Chu

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 17th Nov 2023 after raising US$470m. Its six-month lockup will expire on 16th May 2024.
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period now complete, we forecast 7 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
  • There are 4 stocks that could be added to both indices while some stocks will also have same way flows from CSI Smallcap 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX) trackers.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last 6 months. There has been a big move higher in the potential adds over the last few weeks.

Recce Pharmaceuticals – Advances on several fronts

By Edison Investment Research

Recce Pharmaceuticals has reported several encouraging developments in recent weeks for its lead development compound RECCE® 327 (R327). The intravenous (IV) R327 formulation is advancing to a higher dose level (4,000mg) in its ongoing Phase I/II rapid infusion study and the company is progressing in its plan to submit a US Investigational New Drug (IND) application to commence a US Phase II complicated urinary tract infection (cUTI) study before end-CY24. Recce is also planning to start an Indonesian Phase III registrational study in Q3 CY24, which we anticipate could lead to initial commercialisation in South-East Asia in H2 CY26. We have made minor adjustments to our valuation and now obtain a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of A$661.3m (or A$3.27/share), versus A$644.4m previously.


Zimvie Inc (ZIMV) – Tuesday, Feb 6, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • ZimVie Inc. historically focused on dental and spine industries since spinning out from Zimmer Biomet in 2022
  • Company faced challenges with large debt burden and declining spine business, leading to discounted valuation
  • Recent sale of spine business to HIG Capital for $375 million expected to eliminate overhangs, simplify valuation, and position company for stronger future performance

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Fast Retailing, Meituan, Delta Corp Ltd, ATRenew , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Cake Box Holdings , Cafe De Coral Holdings, Leef Brands , CaoCao Inc, Nexteq and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes
  • [Meituan (3690 HK,BUY,TP HK$150) Rating Change]: A Turning Point Might Have Arrived on Two Catalysts
  • Delta Corp’s Links to Mahadev App Scam Reveal Cash Exchange
  • RERE: Trimming 2024 EPS Estimate Ahead of 1Q24 Earnings
  • A Common Case of a Company with a Low ROE but with the Founding Family Serving as Successive CEOs
  • Cake Box Holdings Plc (CBOX LN) – Sunday, Feb 4, 2024
  • Cafe De Coral (341 HK) – Tuesday, Feb 6, 2024
  • LEEF Brands, Inc. – Announces Debt Restructuring, Settlement for Equity, and Equity Offering
  • CaoCao Inc Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Nexteq Plc (NXQ.L) – Tuesday, Feb 6, 2024


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in July. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.
  • Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 5-16x ADV (10.1%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 4-42x ADV on the deletions.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will be capped to 10% of the index weight while Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) is also close to the 10% cap.

[Meituan (3690 HK,BUY,TP HK$150) Rating Change]: A Turning Point Might Have Arrived on Two Catalysts

By Ying Pan

  • We upgrade Meituan because we believe its success in Hong Kong might be replicable on a global scale. 
  • The upcoming autonomous driving (ADS) revolution has deep and fundamental implications in permanently cutting Meituan’s logistic cost;
  • We upgrade the stock from SELL to BUY and raise TP to HK$150/share

Delta Corp’s Links to Mahadev App Scam Reveal Cash Exchange

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN) sells its Nepal casino business to Ability Games amidst allegations of connections to illegal betting and money laundering.
  • The ED’s investigations into Mahadev Online Book reveal a Rs 3,916 crore scam, freezing of Rs 580.78 crore assets, and involvement of companies like Ability Games.
  • CEO of Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN)mentioned in ED statement that they have agreed for 10Crs over and above the transaction value.

RERE: Trimming 2024 EPS Estimate Ahead of 1Q24 Earnings

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Despite a slightly flatter revenue/margin trajectory outlook, we remain optimistic that ATRenew’s differentiated pre-owned consumer electronics transactions and services platform in China will continue to drive outsized growth in transaction volumes, sales, fees, and profits over the long run.
  • While RERE has meaningfully outperformed recently, we believe current levels for the stock still provide investors with an attractive entry point, as awareness and appreciation of the company’s business model, growth prospects, competitive positioning, and valuation disconnect increasingly take hold.
  • Despite what we believe to be conservative inputs/assumptions, our DCF model suggests a wide disconnect between ATRenew’s fundamentals and the stock’s current price.

A Common Case of a Company with a Low ROE but with the Founding Family Serving as Successive CEOs

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The reason why the approval for the shareholder proposal on profit appropriation exceeded 40% is that the proposal was easy to understand and easy to get approval from other shareholders.
  • Although domestic institutional investors don’t currently vote against a low ROE when it comes to improvement measures, they may take a more aggressive stance if ISS raises its ROE criteria.
  • The trend of top management being reappointed even with continued low ROE is likely to continue for a while longer, but the time frame is definitely getting smaller.

Cake Box Holdings Plc (CBOX LN) – Sunday, Feb 4, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Cake Box PLC is a UK-based franchisor of specialist cake shops with over 200 franchise stores
  • Strong financial foundation with high return on equity and owner-led management team
  • Focus on egg-free cakes in off-high street locations has led to successful growth and plans for further expansion.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Cafe De Coral (341 HK) – Tuesday, Feb 6, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Café de Coral faced challenges during COVID-19 but is now showing signs of recovery with the removal of restrictions and return of tourists
  • If revenues and operating margin return to pre-pandemic levels, the stock could trade at a favorable P/E ratio and dividend yield
  • Strong shareholder confidence through additional share purchases indicates Café de Coral is poised for success in the post-pandemic market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


LEEF Brands, Inc. – Announces Debt Restructuring, Settlement for Equity, and Equity Offering

By Water Tower Research

  • LEEF Brands (CSE: LEEF, OTCQX: LEEEF) is a scaled, vertically integrated operator in California.
  • It holds the largest cultivation permit in Santa Barbara County, owns LEEF Labs, one of the state’s largest manufacturing companies, and has The Leaf dispensary in Palm Springs.
  • The company recently successfully restructured its debt. 

CaoCao Inc Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Huatai, ABC International, and GF Securities.
  • CaoCao Inc (CaoCao) is a ride-hailing firm incubated by the Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (Geely).
  • According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm has consistently ranked as the top three ride hailing platforms in China based on gross transaction value (GTV) between 2021-2023.

Nexteq Plc (NXQ.L) – Tuesday, Feb 6, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Manufacturers utilize NXQ’s graphical interfaces and touchscreens to enhance user experience and operational efficiency in machinery.
  • Nexteq PLC has introduced a new range of gaming cabinets with advanced features and enhanced performance.
  • The company remains committed to delivering innovative solutions in multiple industries, prioritizing improved user experiences and operational efficiency through their technology.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Financials: Banco De Sabadell SA, Postal Savings Bank of China C, Bitcoin Pro, Custodian REIT, East West Bancorp, RE Royalties and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hostile or Not?
  • China Postal Savings Bank – Lower NIM, But Steady Lending & Credit Costs Suggests All Is Fine?
  • Bitcoin Battles ETF Outflows
  • Custodian Property Income REIT – Significant uplift in fully covered DPS
  • East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC) – Tuesday, Feb 6, 2024
  • RE Royalties Ltd. – 4Q23 Results: Finance Income Continues Uptrend


Hostile or Not?

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 6 May, the Board of Sabadell rejected the merger proposal as “it significantly undervalues its growth prospects and is not aligned with the interests of its customers and shareholders”.
  • BBVA could take the offer directly to Sabadell shareholders, but a hostile offer seems extremely unlikely and there are no precedents in the Spanish banking sector.
  • I find it unlikely that both parties reach an agreement because the terms would likely be unfavourable for BBVA (premium 40%-50%). Market sentiment also suggests a low probability.

China Postal Savings Bank – Lower NIM, But Steady Lending & Credit Costs Suggests All Is Fine?

By Daniel Tabbush

  • NIM is continuing to decline, from ~2.5% at its recent peak to ~1.8% in the most recent quarter. This may be from higher rescheduled loans.
  • Loan growth ascent is strangely steady, and not indicative at all, of any business cycle. This alone is a concern, for true visibility of figures.
  • Impairment costs do not suggest concern on underlying credit metrics, but with far higher loan balances in the past few years, this is an even greater worry.

Bitcoin Battles ETF Outflows

By Delphi Digital

  • BTC Spot ETFs Unlock Institutional Capital: Explore the impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs, opening doors to institutional investment.
  • Market Insights Drive BTC Performance: Understand BTC’s resilience and trajectory through market dynamics and performance analysis.
  • Token Unlocks Shape Market Dynamics: Stay ahead of market shifts by monitoring upcoming token unlocks.

Custodian Property Income REIT – Significant uplift in fully covered DPS

By Edison Investment Research

Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) produced a strong Q424 performance, driven by leasing progress and rental growth, rounding off a positive year. Reflecting FY24 performance, the company will pay a special dividend of 0.3p per share, additional to aggregate quarterly DPS of 5.5p, fully covered by EPRA earnings. The FY25 annual DPS target is increased by 9% to 6.0p, underpinned by the continuing strength of the commercial property occupier market and CREI’s increasing confidence in the outlook.


East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC) – Tuesday, Feb 6, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Short shares of EWBC, a medium-sized regional bank serving the Chinese/Asian expat community
  • Trading at 1.5x price/TBV with compression in NIM and increased deposit costs
  • Concerns about CRE exposure, uninsured deposits, investments in China/HK, and creditworthiness due to uniquely correlated customer base and soft guidance from management

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


RE Royalties Ltd. – 4Q23 Results: Finance Income Continues Uptrend

By Water Tower Research

  • E Royalties reported its 4Q23 results. During the conference call hosted by management, the company said it continues to see substantial new quality investment opportunities, including solar projects in Asia.
  • The company also mentioned a potential “tidal wave” in EV battery charging and storage opportunities in North America.
  • The company reported 4Q23 revenue of C$2.6 million, up 64.7% Y/Y.

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Daily Brief Australia: Sigma Healthcare, Adbri, Pointerra Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): ASX200 Inclusion Now, MUCH More Squeezy Fun Later. Maybe…
  • Adbri (ABC AU): Scheme Vote on 12 June
  • Pointerra Ltd – Q4 off to a good start after a weak Q3


Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): ASX200 Inclusion Now, MUCH More Squeezy Fun Later. Maybe…

By Travis Lundy

  • In early December, pharmacy distributor Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) arranged a “transformational merger” with mega chain Chemist Warehouse (CWG). Effectively a reverse takeover designed to get CWG listed.
  • SIG issued shares, raising cash, enabling it so NEWCO had high enough minimum float upon merging. Financial engineering for the win. SIG popped – a kind of IPO premium trade.
  • But plenty of people are against the deal, and ACCC hasn’t yet opined (13 June is the provisional date), but on Thursday, S&P announced SIG would join ASX200 despite risks.

Adbri (ABC AU): Scheme Vote on 12 June

By Arun George

  • The Adbri (ABC AU) IE considers CRH (CRH US) and Barro’s A$3.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$ A$3.09-3.53 per share valuation range. 
  • The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as CRH, the offeror, is a Fortune 500 company headquartered in Ireland.
  • The offer is attractive, and this is a done deal. At the last close and for the 1 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.3%/8.4%.

Pointerra Ltd – Q4 off to a good start after a weak Q3

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
  • Pureprofile has reported a 6% increase in Q3 FY24 revenue to $10.9m and 49% decline in Q3 EBITDA to $0.5m.
  • Q3 is seasonally the weakest quarter for PPL and EBITDA was affected, in part, by the change in executive remuneration policy to cash-based payments.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hankook Tire & Technology, HD Hyundai Marine Solution , KOSDAQ 150 Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Hankook Tire & Technology to Become the Controlling Shareholder of Hanon Systems
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Trading – Strong Demand and Peers Continue to Rise
  • Trading Implications Of Intra-Day Naked Short Selling Rule Tightening in Korea


Hankook Tire & Technology to Become the Controlling Shareholder of Hanon Systems

By Douglas Kim

  • On 3 May, it was reported that Hankook Tire & Technology agreed to purchase a 25% in Hanon Systems for 1.37 trillion won from Hahn & Co private equity firm. 
  • After this deal, Hankook Tire & Technology will own a controlling 50.5% stake in Hanon Systems.
  • We have a negative view on Hankook Tire & Technology’s additional purchase of Hanon Systems, which has experienced a declining profit margins in the past several years.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Trading – Strong Demand and Peers Continue to Rise

By Ethan Aw

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) had raised around US$539m in its Korean IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of KRW83,400/share.
  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (HMS from hereon) is a ship aftermarket service provider that provides necessary services throughout a ship’s life cycle after the delivery of a new ship.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Trading Implications Of Intra-Day Naked Short Selling Rule Tightening in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Aggressively curbing naked short selling may enhance flow conditions for Value-Up stocks by reducing market turnover.
  • Liquidity decline may worsen KOSDAQ’s underperformance relative to KOSPI stocks due to its higher vulnerability to liquidity fluctuations.
  • We should also monitor price impact from phased short selling in the absence of intra-day naked short selling post-regulation tightening.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Genting Singapore, Lion-Phillip S-Reit ETF and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Seatrium initiates buyback programme
  • REIT Watch – Inflows into both S-Reit ETFs reach 19-month high in April


Seatrium initiates buyback programme

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the four trading sessions through to May 2, with S$12.9 million of net institutional inflow, as 17 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$28.4 million.
  • Leading the net institutional inflow over the four sessions were DBS, UOB, Seatrium, City Developments, UOL Group, iFast Corporation, Singapore Tech Engineering, Singapore Exchange, Cortina Holdings, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust and Hongkong Land Holdings.
  • For the month of April, Singapore stocks booked S$225 million of net institutional inflow, following S$1.15 billion of net institutional outflow in Q1.

REIT Watch – Inflows into both S-Reit ETFs reach 19-month high in April

By Geoff Howie

  • Source: SGX, Bloomberg (data as of 31 March 2024).
  • This is probably why the ETF industry exceeded US$11 trillion in global assets under management (AUM) in 2023, after growing 24 per cent year on year since the end of 2022, according to data from ETFGI.
  • The Phillip SGX APAC Dividend Leaders REIT ETF tracks the iEdge APAC ex-Japan Dividend Leaders REIT Index, which consists of 33 REITs across Australia (52 per cent by geographical breakdown), Singapore (36 per cent), and Hong Kong (12 per cent).

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Medco Energi, China Vanke and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Medco Energi, Pakuwon Jati
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke


Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Medco Energi, Pakuwon Jati

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, Tencent, Alibaba Group Holding , Bank of Jiangsu , CPMC Holdings, Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd, China Beststudy Education Group, Huatai Securities Co Ltd (A), Hangzhou EZVIZ Network and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): The Rollover Option, And Alternate Listing Valuations
  • Tencent (700 HK): 1Q24 Preview, EPS Up by 40%, But Upside Narrowed by Significant Price Rise
  • Alibaba (BABA US) 4Q24 Preview: Many Moves Under One-Digit Growth, 46% Upside
  • SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Financials Continue to Outperform
  • L’Occitane (973.HK) Privatization – The Offer Price Is Good Enough
  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Nearing the Cut-Off Point for Its Competing Offer
  • Lalatech IPO: New Filing Shows March From Losses To Profits Between 2021 and 2023
  • China After-School Tutoring:  Still In The Early Innings; Prefer China Beststudy Over EDU
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$2bn One-Way; LONGs up +9.8% Vs SHORTs in ~2 Months
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Steamroll Deletes


L’Occitane (973 HK): The Rollover Option, And Alternate Listing Valuations

By David Blennerhassett

  • Concurrent with its HK$34/share VGO, L’Occitane (973 HK)‘s disinterested shareholders may be entitled to a share scrip alternative. IF afforded, up to 5% of shares out can participate.
  • The big unknown is whether you receive shares of the levered-up Bidco, at some as yet undetermined scrip ratio; or keep shares of L’Occitane as-is.
  • To trigger the rollover option, 10% of disinterested shareholders need to express interest by the 15th May (a Hong Kong holiday btw). A deadline without details. 

Tencent (700 HK): 1Q24 Preview, EPS Up by 40%, But Upside Narrowed by Significant Price Rise

By Ming Lu

  • We believe total revenue will grow by 7% YoY in 1Q24 and faster in the remaining three quarters of 2024.
  • We believe EPS will grow by 41% to HK$3.80, which is higher than the market consensus.
  • The stock has risen by 26% since our last Buy rating, but there is still an upside of 9% till the end of 2024.

Alibaba (BABA US) 4Q24 Preview: Many Moves Under One-Digit Growth, 46% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • We believe revenue will grow by 6% YoY in 4Q24, but by 11% for FY2026 (roughly 2025 calendar year).
  • We believe Alibaba has been actively raising its revenue growth, but this the effect cannot be seen in the short run.
  • We conclude the stock has an upside of 46% and a price target of US$120.

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Financials Continue to Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearing completion, 6 stocks are in inclusion zone and 9 are in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 7.1% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.9bn (US$1.37bn). Index arb balances should increase the impact on the stocks.
  • The potential inclusions (of which four are Financials) have continued to outperform the mixed bag of potential deletions. With pretty big impact on the deletes, expect further divergence.

L’Occitane (973.HK) Privatization – The Offer Price Is Good Enough

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The HK$34/share offer price is final, which exceeds all-time high closing price of HK$33.60/share since IPO in 2010. EUR6 billion is equivalent to a PE of 52.17x, higher than peers.
  • Deploying China’s sinking market is “a good story full of imagination”. However, it may fail to bring expected profits considering increasing competition/potential price war, leading to uncertain future performance growth.
  • For minority shareholders, this privatization provides an attractive opportunity to monetise their investments at a premium over market price. We don’t think the current “technical bull market” to be lasting. 

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Nearing the Cut-Off Point for Its Competing Offer

By Arun George

  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has a pre-conditional voluntary offer from Changping Industrial at HK$6.87 and potentially a competing offer from ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)
  • Five months after announcing its offer, Changping Industrial obtained regulatory approvals from all except SAMR, SAFE, and the Vietnam Competition Commission. 
  • An ORG offer seems unlikely due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional before the ORG obtains regulatory approvals.

Lalatech IPO: New Filing Shows March From Losses To Profits Between 2021 and 2023

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we show drivers of LalaTech’s +US$1bn turnaround in OpInc
  • We also evaluate which drivers are likely to generate future improvements
  • Lalatech won’t repeat incredible 2021-23 CoR, OpEx performances, in our view

China After-School Tutoring:  Still In The Early Innings; Prefer China Beststudy Over EDU

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • China after-school tutoring remains one of the most attractive and visible sectors in the next 2-3 years time frame. 
  • Even though New Oriental Education & Techn (EDU US) had some hiccups in FY3Q24 results, they were mainly due to factors not related to the core after-school tutoring business.
  • My sector top pick is China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK), as valuation is lower and growth is higher, though it has a much smaller market cap..

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Jun 24: US$2bn One-Way; LONGs up +9.8% Vs SHORTs in ~2 Months

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • The 12-month reference period used for the June 2024 review is now complete. The SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs list has changed slightly since I published my last insight (link).
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes during the June 2024 index rebal event.

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Steamroll Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we forecast 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in June. All changes are migrations from/to the STAR 100 Index.
  • One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 4.5bn (US$630m). There is a lot to trade from passive trackers, especially on the inclusions.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletions by ~18% over the last month with Hangzhou EZVIZ Network (688475 CH) and APT Medical (688617 CH) moving higher.

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