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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: Ecopro Co Ltd, Fadu , Ymc Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea – A Look at Ecopro, Kumyang & JYP Entertainment
  • Fadu IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #22: YMC (Beneficiary of China’s Restriction of Gallium Exports)


Korea – A Look at Ecopro, Kumyang & JYP Entertainment

By Brian Freitas


Fadu IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Fadu (440110 KS) is looking to raise up to US$147m in its Korean IPO.
  • Fadu is a South Korean fabless semiconductor maker mainly engaged in flash storage technology innovation. Its core products are Enterprise Solid State Drive (SSD) and Enterprise SSDs.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.

Korea Small Cap Gem #22: YMC (Beneficiary of China’s Restriction of Gallium Exports)

By Douglas Kim

  • On 3 July 2023, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced that it will restrict exports of gallium and germanium starting next month.
  • YMC is one of the key beneficiaries in Korea of China’s restriction of gallium exports. YMC makes silicon carbide which can be a substitute material for gallium.
  • YMC’s valuation is relatively cheap. Given that YMC currently has a market cap of 150 billion won, this would represent P/E of 7.3x (using 2022 net profit). 

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Daily Brief China: Oriental Watch, Dickson Concepts Intl, InSilico Medicine Cayman TopCo, Longfor Properties and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • An Update on Oriental Watch (398 HK)
  • Dickson Concepts: Gleanings From the FY23 Annual Report
  • Pre-IPO InSilico Medicine – AI Pharmaceutical Is Immature; Valuation Expansion Relies on Imagination
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Central China Securities


An Update on Oriental Watch (398 HK)

By Oriental Value

  • A Review on Final Results Oriental Watch recently announced its earnings for the fiscal year, and the results were quite impressive.
  • On June 20, 2023, the company reported a revenue of HKD3.7 billion and a net profit of HKD295 million.
  • These figures surpassed our initial estimates of HKD3.

Dickson Concepts: Gleanings From the FY23 Annual Report

By Sameer Taneja

  • In my previous insight Dickson Concepts 113 HK: Straight From The Ben Graham Stable, >40% Discount to NCAV, I highlighted why one must explore the stock as a viable investment.
  • NCAV (Net current asset value) in FY23 was 7.5 HKD/share ( Vs. current share price of 4.25 HKD/share), with net cash + ST/LT financial investments now at 9.7 HKD/share. 
  • Absolute DPS ( dividend per share) was 35 cents representing a yield of 8.2% ( payout ratio of 55%). The trailing PE is 6.6x FY23. 

Pre-IPO InSilico Medicine – AI Pharmaceutical Is Immature; Valuation Expansion Relies on Imagination

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • InSilico ’s business model is more of AI-CXO + AI-SaaS, but hasn’t reached the stage of AI-biotech, considering its current revenue streams, which may lead to InSilico ultimately changing its positioning.
  • The significance of pipeline lies in the need for InSilico to verify the effectiveness of AI platforms/algorithms/technology through successful product launch. However, valuation of InSilico could be different from biotech.
  • AI pharmaceutical industry is at its infancy, which is a far cry from current levels of investment and expectations in the sector.We advise investors to be rational about this field.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Central China Securities

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Thailand: Bangkok Dusit Medical Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Returning of International Patients Drove 1Q23 Performance


Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Returning of International Patients Drove 1Q23 Performance

By Tina Banerjee

  • Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) recorded 4% YoY growth in hospital revenue in 1Q23, driven by higher patient intensity at Center of Excellence (COE) and returning of international patients.
  • However, Thai patient revenues decreased 6% YoY due to a decrease of COVID-19 related revenues, in line with improving COVID-19 situation in Thailand.
  • BDMS targets to increase its bed capacity to ~9,000 beds in 2027 from 8,400 beds in 2022. BDMS targets revenue CAGR of 6–8% during 2023–2025.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Cinema XXI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO – Peer Comparison
  • Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO – Thoughts on Valuation


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO – Peer Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.
  • Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.
  • Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

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Daily Brief United States: S&P 500 INDEX, Colgate Palmolive Co, Marsh & Mclennan Cos and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | S&P500 E-Mini (ES) DAILY SHORT, Speculative High-Probability Trade
  • Colgate-Palmolive: The Only Game In Town
  • Marsh & McLennan Companies: Expanding Their Business with Acquisitions & Other Drivers


EQD | S&P500 E-Mini (ES) DAILY SHORT, Speculative High-Probability Trade

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P500 E-Mini (ES) is approaching a DAILY resistance level at a point in time where it could perform a quick reversal – a SHORT trade opportunity.
  • Watch the 4483-4525 price area, today is the 3rd consecutive day up, the reversal could begin in that area, today or tomorrow.
  • The probability for a quick reversal, after 3 days up, in the 4483-4525 price area, is between 67% to 79%, depending on the resistance levels reached.

Colgate-Palmolive: The Only Game In Town

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Colgate-Palmolive’s share price performance over the past few years is not as grim as it might look on the surface.
  • Improving gross margin remains the only game in town for future shareholder returns, according to the company.
  • Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL) is rarely seen as an attractive investment opportunity as the company significantly underperformed the S&P 500 and the consumer staples sector in particular over the past 5-year period.

Marsh & McLennan Companies: Expanding Their Business with Acquisitions & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marsh & McLennan managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company had significant growth in most of its businesses, market sectors, and geographical areas, with Marsh, Guy Carpenter, and Mercer all experiencing faster underlying growth than in the previous quarter.
  • Guy Carpenter’s revenue was $1.1 billion, driven by solid growth in all areas and worldwide specializations, reflecting tighter reinsurance market conditions.

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Daily Brief Japan: Rakuten Group , Genda Inc, Takeda Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • July TOPIX FFW Rebal – Bigger Than Expected
  • Genda IPO – Dreams of Reviving the Domestic Arcade Industry with a Roadmap of Doing so as Well
  • Takeda: The Impact of Voluntary Withdrawal of Dengue Vaccine Application in the US Seems Minimal


July TOPIX FFW Rebal – Bigger Than Expected

By Travis Lundy

  • Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.
  • Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in ad hoc methodology.
  • Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is > 3 days ADV.

Genda IPO – Dreams of Reviving the Domestic Arcade Industry with a Roadmap of Doing so as Well

By Clarence Chu

  • Genda Inc (9166 JP) is looking to raise around US$100m in its Japan IPO.
  • Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
  • As of Apr 23, the firm operated 250 amusement facilities domestically and four facilities in Taiwan. 

Takeda: The Impact of Voluntary Withdrawal of Dengue Vaccine Application in the US Seems Minimal

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced yesterday that the company has voluntarily withdrawn the US Biologic License Application for dengue vaccine candidate (QDENGA) citing issues over data collection.
  • As per Fierce Pharma, the decision to withdraw was due to additional data requested by the FDA which were not captured by Takeda’s Phase 3 TIDES trial.
  • Takeda’s share price dropped more than 2.0% during today’s trade, however, we would not be too concerned as efficacy and safety profiles of the trial has already been established.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Fadu , S&P 500 INDEX, Ymc Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Fadu IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • EQD | S&P500 E-Mini (ES) DAILY SHORT, Speculative High-Probability Trade
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #22: YMC (Beneficiary of China’s Restriction of Gallium Exports)


Fadu IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

  • Fadu (440110 KS) is looking to raise up to US$147m in its Korean IPO.
  • Fadu is a South Korean fabless semiconductor maker mainly engaged in flash storage technology innovation. Its core products are Enterprise Solid State Drive (SSD) and Enterprise SSDs.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.

EQD | S&P500 E-Mini (ES) DAILY SHORT, Speculative High-Probability Trade

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P500 E-Mini (ES) is approaching a DAILY resistance level at a point in time where it could perform a quick reversal – a SHORT trade opportunity.
  • Watch the 4483-4525 price area, today is the 3rd consecutive day up, the reversal could begin in that area, today or tomorrow.
  • The probability for a quick reversal, after 3 days up, in the 4483-4525 price area, is between 67% to 79%, depending on the resistance levels reached.

Korea Small Cap Gem #22: YMC (Beneficiary of China’s Restriction of Gallium Exports)

By Douglas Kim

  • On 3 July 2023, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced that it will restrict exports of gallium and germanium starting next month.
  • YMC is one of the key beneficiaries in Korea of China’s restriction of gallium exports. YMC makes silicon carbide which can be a substitute material for gallium.
  • YMC’s valuation is relatively cheap. Given that YMC currently has a market cap of 150 billion won, this would represent P/E of 7.3x (using 2022 net profit). 

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Ecopro Co Ltd, Vedanta Resources, Orbia Advance Corp SAB de CV and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea – A Look at Ecopro, Kumyang & JYP Entertainment
  • Vedanta Resources – Event Flash – Rumours Of Debt Exchange – Lucror Analytics
  • Orbia – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


Korea – A Look at Ecopro, Kumyang & JYP Entertainment

By Brian Freitas


Vedanta Resources – Event Flash – Rumours Of Debt Exchange – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Vedanta Resources Ltd is widely reported to be exploring asset-liability management related to the USD bonds due in 2024 and 2025. The plan apparently involves: [1] repaying USD 500 mn of the secured USD 1 bn 13.875% January 2024 notes, while rolling the remaining principal into the unsecured USD 9.25% 2026 notes; [2] converting the USD 950 mn 6.125% August 2024 notes into new secured notes due in 2026; and [3] redeeming USD 250 mn of the USD 1.2 bn 2025 notes, while exchanging the remaining principal into a new bond due in 2027.

The proposal might not be well-received by the affected bondholders, who would likely expect full repayment at maturity. We move to “Hold” on the VEDLN notes from “Buy”.


Orbia – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Orbia’s ESG as “Adequate” bordering on “Strong”, reflecting the company’s “Adequate” Social and Governance scores as well as its “Strong” Environmental score. The Environmental pillar carries the highest weightage in our assessment, due to the nature of the chemicals industry. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”. 


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Daily Brief Consumer: Rakuten Group , Genda Inc, Cinema XXI, Oriental Watch, Dickson Concepts Intl, BRF SA, Colgate Palmolive Co, Yerbae Brands and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • July TOPIX FFW Rebal – Bigger Than Expected
  • Genda IPO – Dreams of Reviving the Domestic Arcade Industry with a Roadmap of Doing so as Well
  • Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO – Peer Comparison
  • An Update on Oriental Watch (398 HK)
  • Dickson Concepts: Gleanings From the FY23 Annual Report
  • BRF – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Colgate-Palmolive: The Only Game In Town
  • YERB.U: A Few Solid Updates; Increasing Target Price


July TOPIX FFW Rebal – Bigger Than Expected

By Travis Lundy

  • Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.
  • Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in ad hoc methodology.
  • Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is > 3 days ADV.

Genda IPO – Dreams of Reviving the Domestic Arcade Industry with a Roadmap of Doing so as Well

By Clarence Chu

  • Genda Inc (9166 JP) is looking to raise around US$100m in its Japan IPO.
  • Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
  • As of Apr 23, the firm operated 250 amusement facilities domestically and four facilities in Taiwan. 

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO – Peer Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.
  • Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

An Update on Oriental Watch (398 HK)

By Oriental Value

  • A Review on Final Results Oriental Watch recently announced its earnings for the fiscal year, and the results were quite impressive.
  • On June 20, 2023, the company reported a revenue of HKD3.7 billion and a net profit of HKD295 million.
  • These figures surpassed our initial estimates of HKD3.

Dickson Concepts: Gleanings From the FY23 Annual Report

By Sameer Taneja

  • In my previous insight Dickson Concepts 113 HK: Straight From The Ben Graham Stable, >40% Discount to NCAV, I highlighted why one must explore the stock as a viable investment.
  • NCAV (Net current asset value) in FY23 was 7.5 HKD/share ( Vs. current share price of 4.25 HKD/share), with net cash + ST/LT financial investments now at 9.7 HKD/share. 
  • Absolute DPS ( dividend per share) was 35 cents representing a yield of 8.2% ( payout ratio of 55%). The trailing PE is 6.6x FY23. 

BRF – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess BRF’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with the “Adequate” Environmental and Governance scores. The Social pillar is “Strong”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cinema XXI (CINEMA IJ) aims to raise up to US$160m in its Indonesia IPO.
  • Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Colgate-Palmolive: The Only Game In Town

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Colgate-Palmolive’s share price performance over the past few years is not as grim as it might look on the surface.
  • Improving gross margin remains the only game in town for future shareholder returns, according to the company.
  • Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL) is rarely seen as an attractive investment opportunity as the company significantly underperformed the S&P 500 and the consumer staples sector in particular over the past 5-year period.

YERB.U: A Few Solid Updates; Increasing Target Price

By Atrium Research

  • Yerbaé announced a strategic partnership with Farrell Distribution, a renowned distributor of premium beverages in Vermont.
  • YERB.U extended its partnership with CrossFit champion Annie Thorisdottir and launched new flavours in Sprouts Farmers Markets.
  • However, Yerbaé (3.7x 2024E sales) continues to trade at a sizeable discount to Celsius at 7.7x 2024E sales and Monster Beverage at 7.0x 2024E sales.

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Daily Brief Financials: Industrivarden AB, Longfor Properties, Marsh & Mclennan Cos, Martin Currie Portfolio Invest and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Industrivärden H1, Discount and Target NAV
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Central China Securities
  • Marsh & McLennan Companies: Expanding Their Business with Acquisitions & Other Drivers
  • Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust – Performance returning to positive historical form


Industrivärden H1, Discount and Target NAV

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The discount to NAV of C shares is 7.4%, well below the “usual” 15% conglomerate discount, and also below the 5-year average of 10%.
  • C shares are trading at a 0.3% discount to A shares. The reduction in the discount could be driven by acquisitions by the Lundbergs of C shares.
  • My target NAV is SEK 158,144 million, a 18% increase. My target TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 10% discount to NAV, is SEK 329.5 (15% higher).

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Central China Securities

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Marsh & McLennan Companies: Expanding Their Business with Acquisitions & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marsh & McLennan managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • The company had significant growth in most of its businesses, market sectors, and geographical areas, with Marsh, Guy Carpenter, and Mercer all experiencing faster underlying growth than in the previous quarter.
  • Guy Carpenter’s revenue was $1.1 billion, driven by solid growth in all areas and worldwide specializations, reflecting tighter reinsurance market conditions.

Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust – Performance returning to positive historical form

By Edison Investment Research

Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust’s (MNP’s) relative performance is back on track following a tough 2022, when investors favoured value and cyclical companies rather than growth businesses. Manager Zehrid Osmani has remained disciplined, seeking high-quality, long-term growth companies, and has retained his five- to 10-year investment horizon. Over the last decade, the trust has generated robust double-digit absolute annual NAV and share price total returns of 10.3% and 10.6% respectively. Within the AIC Global sector, MNP’s NAV total returns are above average over the last one and five years.


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