
In today’s briefing:
- Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics
- The Geopolitical Floor: The Impact of the Gaza Conflict on Brent Crude Prices
- Corteva (NYSE: CTVA) To Spin-Off Its Seeds Business; Targets Sharper Focus and Valuation Upside
- U.S. Tire Industry Navigates Growth, Tariffs, And Strategic Shifts In 2025
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 6 October
- Valero Energy Corporation VLO: Margins Improving on All Fronts
- Chemtrade Logistics Incm Fd (CHE.UN) – Tuesday, Jul 8, 2025
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 6 October
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 6 October
- Oil futures: Crude steady as markets face conflicting signals

Korea’s Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation Situation Creates New Passive Flow Dynamics
- KRX may preemptively adjust KOSPI 200 screening, switching from full market cap to market cap excluding treasury shares for index inclusion.
- With treasury-share cancellation likely this quarter, KRX may act before June ’26. For December KOSPI 200, we should run both full-cap and ex-treasury screens; flows could behave unusually.
- Focusing on Hanssem (009240 KS) and Taekwang (003240 KS); borderline, high treasury shares, potential KOSPI 200 exclusion, making them key flow-sensitive setups for December reshuffle.
The Geopolitical Floor: The Impact of the Gaza Conflict on Brent Crude Prices
- The Gaza conflict introduces a geopolitical risk premium to Brent crude prices, counteracting bearish market fundamentals driven by oversupply and downward demand revisions.
- Immediate price movements, such as this summer following an escalation of conflict, demonstrate the market’s sensitivity to regional tensions and the integration of a risk premium.
- Ongoing indirect negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release represent a potential turning point; a comprehensive resolution could diminish the geopolitical premium, allowing crude prices to adjust lower.
Corteva (NYSE: CTVA) To Spin-Off Its Seeds Business; Targets Sharper Focus and Valuation Upside
- Corteva plans to spin-off its Seeds business in to a separate publicly liated company. Parent will retain the Crop Protection business
- The separation enables sharper focus and capital allocation between two fundamentally different businesses.
- The seed / trait business is viewed as the higher growth, higher innovation leg (gene editing, trait licensing, intellectual property). These attributes tend to attract premium multiples.
U.S. Tire Industry Navigates Growth, Tariffs, And Strategic Shifts In 2025
- U.S. tire shipments projected at a record 340.2 million units in 2025
- Dynamics shift, with Chinese tire imports falling and SE Asian imports rising
- Top players pursue expansion, innovation, and portfolio revamp
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 6 October
- Asia’s base oils price-premiums to gasoil recover amid lower crude oil prices.
- Firmer margins, and signs of crude prices mostly holding in lower range, curb pressure on refiners to adjust base oils output.
- Rise in Asia’s base oils supply coincides with more muted demand in China and southeast Asia and more complicated arbitrage to move heavy grades to India.
Valero Energy Corporation VLO: Margins Improving on All Fronts
- Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) is one of the world’s largest and most efficient producers of downstream oil products and low-carbon transport fuels and among the best-positioned refiners for the changing energy landscape.
- Its diversified low-carbon fuels business offers multiple future pathways for growth and its low-cost oil refining operations lead the North American refining industry on margins.
- Operations include complex oil refining capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day in the US, Canada, and the UK, 1.2 billion gallons per year of renewable diesel (RD) and synthetic aviation fuel (SAF) capacity (joint venture [JV] with Darling Ingredients, Inc. [NYSE: DAR]), and corn ethanol capacity of 1.7 billion gallons per year in the Midwest.
Chemtrade Logistics Incm Fd (CHE.UN) – Tuesday, Jul 8, 2025
Key points (machine generated)
- Chemtrade is undervalued at a 5x EBITDA multiple with an 11% yield from dividends and buybacks.
- The company operates in Canada, the US, and Brazil, focusing on specialty chemicals with a stable base business.
- With strong management and improved fundamentals, Chemtrade is projected to reach $15 per share in two years, with potential upside to $20.
This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 6 October
- US base oils demand likely to stay muted.
- Buyers could cover more of any seasonal pick-up in demand at start of Q4 with unused stocks.
- Lack of weather-related supply disruptions in recent months likely leaves those stocks at higher-than-expected levels.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 6 October
- US Group II base oils prices edge up versus vacuum gasoil (VGO) as crude prices correct lower.
- Firm, rangebound base oils margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain high output.
- High output in Oct 2025 would help to cushion impact of scheduled plant-maintenance.
Oil futures: Crude steady as markets face conflicting signals
- Crude oil futures Tuesday were largely consolidating early-week gains after OPEC+ agreed to a production increase at the low end of expectations, although markets continued to face mixed signals.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.68/b (2006 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $65.47/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.96/b against a previous close of $61.69/b.
- The producer group said on Sunday it would raise quotas by 137,000 bpd in November, a move SocGen described as “a sign that markets priced in an expectation of a greater hike and, perhaps more importantly, a growing consensus that spare capacity is quite limited.”