
In today’s briefing:
- Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future
- EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future
- Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
- Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
- Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.
EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views
- Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression
- Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist
- YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI