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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Macro: Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH
  • The Animal Spirits Are Still Alive
  • What Happens After the Momentum Chase?
  • Navigating the Fog: Modelling Illiquid Assets in Real-Time
  • Overdue Reality Check Required? Aggressive Fed Policy Rate Cut Expectations Underpin Risky Assets
  • China Aggregate Finance Under the Hood

Steno Signals #77 – Oil Demand Is ALL TIME HIGH

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial from Steno Research.
  • It has been an incredibly odd week in the economic calendar and our thesis of a strong year-end for USD key figures has so far been proven right, which especially after the NFP report re-ignited the USD and front-end USD rates, which has been our bet against especially European peers.
  • Most recent economic key figures from the US have not surprised positively to the extent we saw through the autumn, while Chinese key figures have woken up and made a decent comeback relative to expectations over the past months.

The Animal Spirits Are Still Alive

By Cam Hui

  • The combination of strong price momentum, supportive market positioning, positive liquidity, and intermarket factors argue for a rally into year-end.
  • However, the CPI report and FOMC meeting next week could derail the bullish scenario and become the source of market volatility.
  • Historically, positive year-end seasonality in a pre-election year starts about mid-month, which begins just after the FOMC meeting.

What Happens After the Momentum Chase?

By Cam Hui

  • The market appears to be setting up for a beta and momentum price melt-up into year-end. The question is what happens afterwards.
  • Top-Down macro indicators are supportive of the soft landing scenario.
  • From a technical perspective, the bulls need to broaden market leadership and allow the market to sustainably advance.

Navigating the Fog: Modelling Illiquid Assets in Real-Time

By Albert Maass

  • Advanced modelling of illiquid assets offers real-time valuation estimates, enhancing decision-making in multi-asset portfolios with elements like Private Equity LP interests.
  • These techniques go beyond traditional analyses, correlating assets with macroeconomic factors for a comprehensive view of portfolio performance.
  • Implementation includes adjusting the latest Net Asset Value for market dynamics, with back-testing ensuring continual accuracy and relevance.

Overdue Reality Check Required? Aggressive Fed Policy Rate Cut Expectations Underpin Risky Assets

By Said Desaque

  • Fed Chairman Powell has been more balanced with his policy outlook rhetoric. The recent easing of financial conditions makes it more difficult to become dovish about imminent policy rate reductions.
  • The dovish tilt in Fed policy rate expectations has been very bullish for US equities, although the impact on currencies has been somewhat more nuanced, particularly against the euro.
  • Gold prices are suggesting that easier Fed policy could produce the return of rising inflation. Ideally, the Fed would like to sit on the side lines next year.

China Aggregate Finance Under the Hood

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Xi-Biden Summit: Geopolitical Tensions Easing, But Underlying Issues Remain
  • The Xi-Biden summit has led to a perception of easing geopolitical tensions and a conscious effort to de-escalate the situation.
  • Topics included talks on fentanyl, military matters, and artificial intelligence.

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Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Kinross Gold Corp, Albemarle Corp, CNOOC Ltd, Pact Group Holdings, Merdeka Battery Materials and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Few Large Weight Changes
  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Albermarle (ALB US) Finally Added
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8Dec23); CNOOC & China Mobile Both Now To The Buy Side, Tencent Not
  • Geminder Bumps. Pact Group Accepts
  • Merdeka Battery Materials Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry, Some Have Sold Beforehand

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Few Large Weight Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December, but there are float and capping changes for some stocks.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% and that leads to a one-way trade of US$122m.
  • There are 13 stocks with over US$5m to trade from passive trackers, though the impact is not very big on the stocks.

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Albermarle (ALB US) Finally Added

By Brian Freitas

  • Albemarle Corp (ALB US) will replace ioneer (INR AU) in the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close on 15 December.
  • Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover is 13.4% and in a one-way trade of US$50m.
  • The mainland China stocks in the index have been the biggest laggards and this rebalance will reduce their weight in the index significantly.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8Dec23); CNOOC & China Mobile Both Now To The Buy Side, Tencent Not

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies continues for a second or third week after weeks of momentum. 
  • SOUTHBOUND saw HK$11.2bn of INFLOWS on the week, a chunk of which was net buys on HK-listed ETFs, but Hs underperformed their A counterparts in the H/A pairs once again. 
  • High-Div SOEs again saw action. This time with both CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)andChina Mobile (941 HK) seeing strong net buying as a percentage of volume. Tech was sold.  

Geminder Bumps. Pact Group Accepts

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in September, plastic products manufacturer Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU) announced – and subsequently rejected – an unconditional off-market takeover of A$0.68/share from its major shareholder, Raphael Geminder.
  • After a couple of Offer extensions, Geminder has now bumped its bid to A$0.84/share (a 24.4% premium to undisturbed), and declared terms final. Pacts is supportive of the revised offer. 
  • This is done and will trade at terms through to the Offer completion. 

Merdeka Battery Materials Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry, Some Have Sold Beforehand

By Ethan Aw

  • Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ) was listed on 18th Apr 2023, when it raised around US$591m in its Indonesian IPO. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 11th Dec 2023.
  • MBMA owns one of the world’s largest nickel mines in terms of contained nickel at the Konawe Nickel Mine. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Trip.com (TCOM US and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Trip.com (TCOM US, 9961 HK): Revenue 30% Above Pre-COVID Level
  • Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): New Hospital Acquisition Expands Footfall in a New Populus City
  • Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba
  • Japan Airport Terminal (9706 JP, SELL, TP: JPY5,364): Weak JPY Can’t Overcome Fundamental Challenges
  • China Consumption Weekly (11 Dec 2023): BYD, NIO, Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent
  • Pioneer Credit Limited – Growth Step-Up and Additional Finance
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Another Monetisation
  • Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.CH) – Valuation Rebound Is Worth Looking Forward To

Trip.com (TCOM US, 9961 HK): Revenue 30% Above Pre-COVID Level

By Ming Lu

  • Travelers increased by 75% YoY and traveling spending increased by 144% YoY in China in 9M2023.
  • TCOM’s total revenue rose by 31% in 3Q23 over 3Q19 before COVID.
  • We conclude an upside of 33% and a price target of US$43.70.

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): New Hospital Acquisition Expands Footfall in a New Populus City

By Tina Banerjee

  • Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) has entered into a share purchase agreement for acquisition of a 550-bedded Sahara Hospital in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh for an enterprise value of INR9.4B (~$113M).
  • The Hospital currently serves ~2 lakh patients every year, with FY24 revenue run rate of INR2B. It has a renowned center of excellence for Neurosciences.
  • The Hospital has a potential to quickly ramp up beds in existing building and expand medical programs such as oncology, transplants, robotics, etc.  

Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba

By Scott Foster

  • Rohm’s share price was up 6% on Friday, December 8, on the news that the Japanese government will subsidize its collaboration with Toshiba in power semiconductors.
  • The subsidy will amount to one-third of the ¥388.3 billion yen the two companies plan to invest in Silicon Carbide and Silicon devices for the electric vehicle and other industries.
  • Rohm hit bottom on October 31, management cut FY Mar-24 guidance on November 1 and the market is now looking to recovery. Toshiba will be delisted on December 20.

Japan Airport Terminal (9706 JP, SELL, TP: JPY5,364): Weak JPY Can’t Overcome Fundamental Challenges

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP) (JAT) has turnaround and set to resume its earnings growth trajectory thanks to Japan’s brisk air traffic recovery   
  • However, future growth is increasingly challenging as domestic traffic stalls, and international traffic growth relies on inbound tourists. What happens if tourists decide to go elsewhere?
  • Target price JPY5,364 (18% DOWNSIDE) based on 12.7x FY2024 EV/EBITDA (peer group average). SELL, grossly overvalued, Mexican and Chinese airports are far more attractive

China Consumption Weekly (11 Dec 2023): BYD, NIO, Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent

By Ming Lu

  • BYD offers a reward up to RMB5 million for reporting defamation.
  • NIO denied further layoff after releasing the 3Q23 results with both revenue and loss increasing significantly.
  • Meituan’s GMV of live broadcasting food delivery reached RMB2 billion.

Pioneer Credit Limited – Growth Step-Up and Additional Finance

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pioneer Credit Limited (ASX:PNC) is one of the leading acquirers and managers of impaired credit in Australia and has gained its status by maintaining positive customer engagement, an unblemished compliance record with ASIC, and strong relationships with Australia’s largest bank and non-bank lenders.
  • PNC purchases debt from 18 different Australian vendor partners with long-term partnership purchasing arrangements in place with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA).
  • The company’s AGM updates highlighted the strong position PNC occupies in the marketplace and the expected improvement in NPAT following debt refinancing currently in progress. 

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Another Monetisation

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The REIT issuance of the Hangzhou and Guizhou logistics assets of Shenzhen International (152 HK) has entered the final stage, reflecting its ability to realise asset values.
  • We estimate SZI may book gain of around Rmb300m in 2H23, or more likely 1H24, and this will support good HoH and YoY rebound in its earnings. 
  • These assets only accounted for 8% and 5% of SZI’s total portfolio area and value, respectively, suggesting there is still immense room for capital gain from its remaining assets.

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.CH) – Valuation Rebound Is Worth Looking Forward To

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Now that the pandemic has passed, Yiling’s performance has to face a sharp decline due to the high base before, but in our view, the situation is not so bad.  
  • According to the management,sales of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products would gradually increase to make up for the sales decline of Lianhua Qingwen, which would still be higher than pre-pandemic level.
  • About 15-20% performance growth is still reachable in the future. PE of 20-30 is a reasonable range for Yiling. Being included in CSI 300 Index helps to improve the liquidity.

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Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Outsourcing Inc, Visional , Benefit One Inc, ROHM Co Ltd, Japan Airport Terminal Co, Shenzhen International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)
  • Merger Arb Mondays (11 Dec) – Benefit One, Outsourcing, Tokyo Rakutenchi, CPMC, Weiqiao Textile
  • Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low
  • Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba
  • Japan Airport Terminal (9706 JP, SELL, TP: JPY5,364): Weak JPY Can’t Overcome Fundamental Challenges
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Another Monetisation

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has recommended a Bain-backed preconditional MBO tender offer of JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December). 
  • The offer is light vs. peer and historical multiples and opportunistically takes advantage of the 20% price fall due to the disclosure of employment adjustment subsidies issues on 1 August. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 61.9% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance rate could prove challenging. The tender offer is to start by late January 2024. 

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • One of our TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names Visional (4194 JP) confirmed it has received approval to move to the Prime Market in December 2023.
  • Currently, we are expecting one TOPIX Inclusion at the end of December 2023 and two more at the end of January 2024 (including Visional). 

Merger Arb Mondays (11 Dec) – Benefit One, Outsourcing, Tokyo Rakutenchi, CPMC, Weiqiao Textile

By Arun George

Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 8 December, Bain announced an MBO with Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) Chair Haruhiko Doi to take the company private at a 51% premium. Looks good at first glance.
  • It is, however, an offer at ~6.6x Management Forecast derived Dec 2024 EBITDA. This for a top player in a fast-growing market where Street/mgmt both see up-and-to-the-right results from here. 
  • This is a delayed start (late-Jan) for regulatory approvals. It is too cheap. It is blockable. But Doi-san is young at 64yrs old and he could come back years later.

Rohm (6963 JP): Government Subsidy for Power Device Project with Toshiba

By Scott Foster

  • Rohm’s share price was up 6% on Friday, December 8, on the news that the Japanese government will subsidize its collaboration with Toshiba in power semiconductors.
  • The subsidy will amount to one-third of the ¥388.3 billion yen the two companies plan to invest in Silicon Carbide and Silicon devices for the electric vehicle and other industries.
  • Rohm hit bottom on October 31, management cut FY Mar-24 guidance on November 1 and the market is now looking to recovery. Toshiba will be delisted on December 20.

Japan Airport Terminal (9706 JP, SELL, TP: JPY5,364): Weak JPY Can’t Overcome Fundamental Challenges

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP) (JAT) has turnaround and set to resume its earnings growth trajectory thanks to Japan’s brisk air traffic recovery   
  • However, future growth is increasingly challenging as domestic traffic stalls, and international traffic growth relies on inbound tourists. What happens if tourists decide to go elsewhere?
  • Target price JPY5,364 (18% DOWNSIDE) based on 12.7x FY2024 EV/EBITDA (peer group average). SELL, grossly overvalued, Mexican and Chinese airports are far more attractive

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Another Monetisation

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The REIT issuance of the Hangzhou and Guizhou logistics assets of Shenzhen International (152 HK) has entered the final stage, reflecting its ability to realise asset values.
  • We estimate SZI may book gain of around Rmb300m in 2H23, or more likely 1H24, and this will support good HoH and YoY rebound in its earnings. 
  • These assets only accounted for 8% and 5% of SZI’s total portfolio area and value, respectively, suggesting there is still immense room for capital gain from its remaining assets.

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Dec 11
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Hang Seng Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Soft Landing

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

By Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Soft Landing

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Pharmaron Beijing , Max Healthcare Institute, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, Again, Despite SOUTHBOUND Buying; Pharmas Weak
  • Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): New Hospital Acquisition Expands Footfall in a New Populus City
  • Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.CH) – Valuation Rebound Is Worth Looking Forward To

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, Again, Despite SOUTHBOUND Buying; Pharmas Weak

By Travis Lundy

  • The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • Hs with H/A pairs under-perform their As on average by 70+bp. Liquid HK H/A Pairs saw H/As -66bp. H/A Pair intracorrelation is down but it feels like liquidation.
  • SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were buys, and sells, respectively, but Hs have had two bad weeks in a row, and high premia A/H pairs have seen premia rise significantly.

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): New Hospital Acquisition Expands Footfall in a New Populus City

By Tina Banerjee

  • Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) has entered into a share purchase agreement for acquisition of a 550-bedded Sahara Hospital in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh for an enterprise value of INR9.4B (~$113M).
  • The Hospital currently serves ~2 lakh patients every year, with FY24 revenue run rate of INR2B. It has a renowned center of excellence for Neurosciences.
  • The Hospital has a potential to quickly ramp up beds in existing building and expand medical programs such as oncology, transplants, robotics, etc.  

Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.CH) – Valuation Rebound Is Worth Looking Forward To

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Now that the pandemic has passed, Yiling’s performance has to face a sharp decline due to the high base before, but in our view, the situation is not so bad.  
  • According to the management,sales of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products would gradually increase to make up for the sales decline of Lianhua Qingwen, which would still be higher than pre-pandemic level.
  • About 15-20% performance growth is still reachable in the future. PE of 20-30 is a reasonable range for Yiling. Being included in CSI 300 Index helps to improve the liquidity.

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Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Financials: Abacus Storage King, Pioneer Credit and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: ASKing for a Reversal
  • Pioneer Credit Limited – Growth Step-Up and Additional Finance

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: ASKing for a Reversal

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no constituent changes for the Vaneck Vectors Australian Property ETF (MVA AU) in December but there are float and capping changes.
  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) is the biggest sell and is due to a drop in float, a reversal of the excessively high float assigned at the September rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% and will result in a one-way trade of A$26m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.

Pioneer Credit Limited – Growth Step-Up and Additional Finance

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pioneer Credit Limited (ASX:PNC) is one of the leading acquirers and managers of impaired credit in Australia and has gained its status by maintaining positive customer engagement, an unblemished compliance record with ASIC, and strong relationships with Australia’s largest bank and non-bank lenders.
  • PNC purchases debt from 18 different Australian vendor partners with long-term partnership purchasing arrangements in place with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA).
  • The company’s AGM updates highlighted the strong position PNC occupies in the marketplace and the expected improvement in NPAT following debt refinancing currently in progress. 

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Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Consumer: A2 Milk Co Ltd, REPT BATTERO Energy, Trip.com, SHEIN, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company, BYD and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes
  • REPT BATTERO (0666 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
  • Trip.com (TCOM US, 9961 HK): Revenue 30% Above Pre-COVID Level
  • SHEIN Versus Amazon: Our Online Shopping Adventure In Pursuit Of Ultra-Cheap Holiday Deals
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Dec 23): Net Sales Again on Midea and Wuliangye Yibin
  • China Consumption Weekly (11 Dec 2023): BYD, NIO, Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.
  • Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.
  • There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.

REPT BATTERO (0666 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

By Brian Freitas

  • REPT BATTERO Energy (1998104D CH) is looking to raise up to HK$2.39bn (US$306m) in its IPO by selling 116.07m shares at HK$20.6/share, valuing the company at HK$46.9bn (US$6bn).
  • The H-share market cap is a lot lower at HK$6.33bn (US$811m) since most of the pre-IPO shares will remain as Domestic Unlisted Shares.
  • The stock will be eligible for HSCI inclusion in March but will need to trade higher than the upper end of the IPO range to be added to the index.

Trip.com (TCOM US, 9961 HK): Revenue 30% Above Pre-COVID Level

By Ming Lu

  • Travelers increased by 75% YoY and traveling spending increased by 144% YoY in China in 9M2023.
  • TCOM’s total revenue rose by 31% in 3Q23 over 3Q19 before COVID.
  • We conclude an upside of 33% and a price target of US$43.70.

SHEIN Versus Amazon: Our Online Shopping Adventure In Pursuit Of Ultra-Cheap Holiday Deals

By Daniel Hellberg

  • We set out to compare prices & the “retail experience” at AMZN, SHEIN
  • Selecting comparable items, we looked at landed costs, transit times, returns
  • SHEIN’s value proposition is obvious; will consumers accept its drawbacks, too?

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Dec 23): Net Sales Again on Midea and Wuliangye Yibin

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 5.8bn of A-sharesin higher-than-normal activity.
  • Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start).

China Consumption Weekly (11 Dec 2023): BYD, NIO, Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent

By Ming Lu

  • BYD offers a reward up to RMB5 million for reporting defamation.
  • NIO denied further layoff after releasing the 3Q23 results with both revenue and loss increasing significantly.
  • Meituan’s GMV of live broadcasting food delivery reached RMB2 billion.

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Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Australia: A2 Milk Co Ltd, Abacus Storage King, Pact Group Holdings, Pioneer Credit and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes
  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: ASKing for a Reversal
  • Geminder Bumps. Pact Group Accepts
  • Pioneer Credit Limited – Growth Step-Up and Additional Finance

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: Three Deletions & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) will be deleted from the MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index at the close 15 December.
  • Constituent changes plus capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of A$99m.
  • There is a fair amount of short interest on the deletions and shorts could look to cover against the passive flow.

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: ASKing for a Reversal

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no constituent changes for the Vaneck Vectors Australian Property ETF (MVA AU) in December but there are float and capping changes.
  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) is the biggest sell and is due to a drop in float, a reversal of the excessively high float assigned at the September rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% and will result in a one-way trade of A$26m. There are a few stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.

Geminder Bumps. Pact Group Accepts

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in September, plastic products manufacturer Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU) announced – and subsequently rejected – an unconditional off-market takeover of A$0.68/share from its major shareholder, Raphael Geminder.
  • After a couple of Offer extensions, Geminder has now bumped its bid to A$0.84/share (a 24.4% premium to undisturbed), and declared terms final. Pacts is supportive of the revised offer. 
  • This is done and will trade at terms through to the Offer completion. 

Pioneer Credit Limited – Growth Step-Up and Additional Finance

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pioneer Credit Limited (ASX:PNC) is one of the leading acquirers and managers of impaired credit in Australia and has gained its status by maintaining positive customer engagement, an unblemished compliance record with ASIC, and strong relationships with Australia’s largest bank and non-bank lenders.
  • PNC purchases debt from 18 different Australian vendor partners with long-term partnership purchasing arrangements in place with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA).
  • The company’s AGM updates highlighted the strong position PNC occupies in the marketplace and the expected improvement in NPAT following debt refinancing currently in progress. 

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Dec 11
0

Most Read: Benefit One Inc, Outsourcing Inc, Visional , Kinross Gold Corp, DISCO Corp, Albemarle Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price
  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)
  • MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Few Large Weight Changes
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank
  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Albermarle (ALB US) Finally Added
  • MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction
  • Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low

New Benefit One Deal Recalculated, More Benefit for All, Less for One

By Travis Lundy

  • The deal from Dai-Ichi Life for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) appears language I did not get the first time around. The JPY 1800/share price is a proposed combined value.
  • The deal would then lower the TOB price to Pasona, and share the benefits from that lower price to Benefit One minorities. 
  • That suggests more upside to Benefit One than I originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona.

Benefit One (2412 JP): Thoughts on the Potential Minority Offer Price

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) has a total value of JPY285,733 million (JPY1,800 per share).
  • The offer structure is that Pasona Group (2168 JP) will receive JPY1,800 less TOB tax benefits. Minorities will receive JPY1,800 plus the proportionate share of Pasona’s TOB tax benefits. 
  • Our estimated minority offer price is JPY2,086 per share, which is 15.9% higher than the JPY1,800 floor price and 9.1% higher than the last close price.

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Bain-Backed Preconditional MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,755

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has recommended a Bain-backed preconditional MBO tender offer of JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December). 
  • The offer is light vs. peer and historical multiples and opportunistically takes advantage of the 20% price fall due to the disclosure of employment adjustment subsidies issues on 1 August. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 61.9% minority acceptance rate. The acceptance rate could prove challenging. The tender offer is to start by late January 2024. 

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • One of our TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names Visional (4194 JP) confirmed it has received approval to move to the Prime Market in December 2023.
  • Currently, we are expecting one TOPIX Inclusion at the end of December 2023 and two more at the end of January 2024 (including Visional). 

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Few Large Weight Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December, but there are float and capping changes for some stocks.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% and that leads to a one-way trade of US$122m.
  • There are 13 stocks with over US$5m to trade from passive trackers, though the impact is not very big on the stocks.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

By Brian Freitas

  • There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
  • There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
  • There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Albermarle (ALB US) Finally Added

By Brian Freitas

  • Albemarle Corp (ALB US) will replace ioneer (INR AU) in the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close on 15 December.
  • Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover is 13.4% and in a one-way trade of US$50m.
  • The mainland China stocks in the index have been the biggest laggards and this rebalance will reduce their weight in the index significantly.

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

By Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

By David Blennerhassett

Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 8 December, Bain announced an MBO with Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) Chair Haruhiko Doi to take the company private at a 51% premium. Looks good at first glance.
  • It is, however, an offer at ~6.6x Management Forecast derived Dec 2024 EBITDA. This for a top player in a fast-growing market where Street/mgmt both see up-and-to-the-right results from here. 
  • This is a delayed start (late-Jan) for regulatory approvals. It is too cheap. It is blockable. But Doi-san is young at 64yrs old and he could come back years later.

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