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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Shortlist Of 2024 High Conviction Ideas: Income and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Shortlist Of 2024 High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety
  • [Blue Lotus Sector Update]: 2024 High Conviction Idea: Two Scenarios Towards Year End
  • 2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration
  • China Airlines (2610 TT, NEUTRAL, TP:TWD 23.00): Superb 2023 Masks Upcoming Challenges
  • 2024 High Conviction | Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Himalayan Ambitions
  • [Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns
  • Orthofix International (OFIX US): Limited Downside Likely; Looking Ahead to 2024 with New Management
  • China’s Ophthalmic Hospital Market – The Major Players, the Business Logic and the Outlook
  • MariMed, Inc. – Begins Manufacturing and Processing in Illinois
  • Information Services Corporation – Gaining momentum with new contract win


Shortlist Of 2024 High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety

By Sameer Taneja


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: 2024 High Conviction Idea: Two Scenarios Towards Year End

By Eric Wen

  • In our view, China growth equity faces high geopolitical uncertainty in C3Q24 ahead of the US election, but can experience a relief rally in C1Q24.
  • We prepared high beta and low risk recommendations for 2024
  • For low-risk, we recommend JD/JDL/JDH, Tencent and Luckin. For high beta, we recommend BEKE, LI Auto and Kuaishou.

2024 High Conviction: TSMC (2330 TT) Is Perfectly Poised for Revenue and FCF Growth Acceleration

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • TSMC looks set for a significant recovery in top-line growth in 2024F, driven by continued faster-than-expected demand for its 3nm volume production leading to significantly improved overall ASP.
  • This should be supported by a concurrent improvement in the inventory cycle at major clients, helping recover TSMC’s utilisation back to historic norms.
  • Lower capital intensity, improving internal inventory levels, and accelerating top-line growth should all combine to drive record levels of Free Cash Flow generation during 2024F.

China Airlines (2610 TT, NEUTRAL, TP:TWD 23.00): Superb 2023 Masks Upcoming Challenges

By Mohshin Aziz

  • China Airlines (2610 TT) will deliver record profit in 2023 on strong passenger and rising cargo rates
  • Beyond 2023, hard to forecast due to high exposure (~30%) to volatile cargo, and it lacks brand recognition and customer loyalty evidenced by its weaker yields to local rival   
  • Target price of TWD23 based on 1.71x FY2024 P/BV ratio – one SD above mean. Limited 6% UPSIDE, with 3,9% dividend yield. Prefer Eva Airways (2618 TT) 

2024 High Conviction | Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Himalayan Ambitions

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Several catalysts on the horizon support the case for a re-rating of Eicher Motors (EIM IN)
  • The recent launch of the 450cc platform is positioned as a significant launch pad, propelling EIM’s aspirations to establish global leadership in the middleweight segment.
  • We anticipate EIM to deliver higher-than-anticipated revenue growth with the possibility of a multiple re-rating for the company.

[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

By Pranav Bhavsar


Orthofix International (OFIX US): Limited Downside Likely; Looking Ahead to 2024 with New Management

By Tina Banerjee

  • In November, Orthofix International Nv (OFIX US) named Massimo Calafiore as incoming President and CEO. Mr. Calafiore has extensive knowledge in orthopedics and spine, and M&A integration expertise.
  • Orthofix has performed well and operated smoothly following management transition. In 3Q23, revenue increased 61% YoY on a reported basis and 1% YoY on a pro forma basis to $184M.
  • The company expects to deliver much higher adjusted profits next year and to exit 2024 cash-flow positive from an estimated $100 million outflow for 2023.

China’s Ophthalmic Hospital Market – The Major Players, the Business Logic and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Against the backdrop of China’s reopen after the pandemic is under control, the performance comparison of the four major ophthalmic hospitals in the A-share market has attracted investors’ attention.
  • Aier Eye Hospital is already going downhill. Bright Eye Hospital leads Huaxia Eye Hospital in national layout/growth rate. He Eye Hospital has a big gap compared to the rest three.
  • The “weaknesses” of Huaxia and He Eye Hospital in business layout isn’t obvious currently.But in good times, the impact of businesses with strong consumption attributes on performance would be amplified.

MariMed, Inc. – Begins Manufacturing and Processing in Illinois

By Water Tower Research

  • MariMed has begun manufacturing and processing cannabis products in its new kitchen in Mount Vernon, Illinois.
  • As often happens in cannabis, there were construction and regulatory delays, but the company expects to have its award-winning edibles in Illinois stores in time for the holidays.
  • Illinois is the sixth-most populated state with 12.7 million residents.

Information Services Corporation – Gaining momentum with new contract win

By Edison Investment Research

Information Services Corporation’s (ISC’s) strong track record of acquiring and innovating registries, and related information services, was highlighted by yesterday’s five-year contract win with the Bank of Canada. This awards ISC with the role of operator and technology solutions provider for the Bank Act Security Registry, a clear testament to the company’s expertise. The operation is expected to commence in the summer of 2024, utilising ISC’s RegSys platform. We estimate that revenue for this contract, akin to the company’s other contracts, will amount to c C$5–15m over the five-year period. We maintain our forecasts and valuation of C$37 per share, implying a 74% upside.


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Daily Brief Macro: Global Liquidity On The Rise: Is This Gold’s (And BitCoin’s) Breakout Moment? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Liquidity On The Rise: Is This Gold’s (And BitCoin’s) Breakout Moment?
  • FSS Provides Further Details of Korean Companies That Plan to Change Dividend Payout System in 2024
  • Gold Soars to Record High on Rising Rate Cut Expectations
  • Great Game – War over Oil… In LatAm?
  • Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?
  • CX Daily: Chinese Nickel Miners In Indonesia Face Threat From Falling Prices


Global Liquidity On The Rise: Is This Gold’s (And BitCoin’s) Breakout Moment?

By Michael J. Howell

  • High street inflation could fall in 2024 and real interest rates stay high, but the gold price and BitCoin (BTC$) may still break higher
  • Gold has a 1.5-1.6 times sensitivity factor to the growth in Global Liquidity. BitCoin is a whopping 5 times this! It is ‘exponential gold’
  • Global Liquidity looks set to double in size over the next decade driven by soaring World debts. Alongside, the US dollar has been eclipsed as the marginal World reserve asset

FSS Provides Further Details of Korean Companies That Plan to Change Dividend Payout System in 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • FSS provided further details as to the number of Korean companies that plan to change their dividend payout system to their shareholders in 2024.
  • There are 636 companies out of a total 2,267 listed companies in Korea (28%) that have confirmed that they will change their dividend payout system starting 2024.
  • As listed companies set different voting rights and dividend record dates from the end of the year, investors need to check the dividend record date and dividend amount before investing.

Gold Soars to Record High on Rising Rate Cut Expectations

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Continued central bank buying, geopolitics, and de-dollarisation concerns have kept gold prices buoyant over the last two years.
  • Gold has been at record high in non-USD terms for some time now. On 4th Nov, it rallied to an all-time high of USD 2,135 per troy ounce.
  • Not just gold, but digital gold (“bitcoin”) also rallied to its highest in 20 months as excitement of rate cuts captured the zeitgeist of investors.

Great Game – War over Oil… In LatAm?

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Welcome to this week’s geopolitical round-up.
  • We’ll have a look at the most recent events of which we have seen quite a few! In a surprisingly self-assured and bold move, Venezuela moved troops close to the Guyanan province of Essequibo, seemingly preparing for a full-scale invasion.
  • Guyana has been the center of attention for the oil business in recent years after the discovery of significant oil reserves in the Essequibo province.

Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

By Emil Moller

  • The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.
  • The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).
  • Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.

CX Daily: Chinese Nickel Miners In Indonesia Face Threat From Falling Prices

By Caixin Global

  • Nickel / Cover Story: Chinese nickel miners in Indonesia face threat from falling prices
  • China-EU /: Xi to meet EU leaders in Beijing for first in-person summit in four years

  • Obituary /: Pioneer who helped set up China’s capital markets dies


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Most Read: Eoflow, IJTT Co., Ltd., Benefit One Inc, Weiqiao Textile Co, AMP Ltd, Ps Mitsubishi Construction, Ryohin Keikaku, Chindata Group, Hankook & Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • EOFlow (Further) Tests Investor Patience
  • IJTT (7315 JP) – A Truly Offensive Takeover Price and Process To Buy Out Minorities at 0.46x Book
  • Benefit One (2412) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update
  • Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK)’s Pre-Conditional Merger By Absorption
  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone
  • P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update
  • EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Appeals Brief Is All Bark, No Bite
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes
  • Dissenters Mobilise As Chindata (CD US)’s Shareholders Approve Bain’s Offer
  • Navigating the Potential of Hankook & Company’s Revised Tender Offer


EOFlow (Further) Tests Investor Patience

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 25 May, when Medtronic Plc (MDT US) enter into a SPA with EOFlow (294090 KS)‘s CEO, with a follow-on Tender Offer, the whole construct looked pretty clean.
  • Then in August Insulet Corp (PODD US) launched its lawsuit, which in hindsight, should have been expected. Then earlier this month, news surfaced concerning a stock-backed loan to the CEO.
  • Now the CEO is selling, presumably to repay his collateralized loan. Shares are down 38% since the resumption of trading, and are now at a whopping 122% spread to terms. 

IJTT (7315 JP) – A Truly Offensive Takeover Price and Process To Buy Out Minorities at 0.46x Book

By Travis Lundy

  • A Fund named Mirai Creation Fund, investing in five “fields” “vital to the future” (“intelligent technologies”, robotics, hydrogen-economy, electrification, and “new materials”) will buy out casting/forging mainstay IJTT. 
  • The look and feel of this fund screams “lead me to the future”, so of course, the buy-out is being done with 26% equity, 74% debt. Levered is good.
  • That’s to buy at 0.46x PBR. Equity check is 12% of net assets. The Board says “yes” because it will lead to “improvement of corporate value”. Unfortunately, not for shareholders. 

Benefit One (2412) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update

By Travis Lundy

  • Since the announcement of the Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) partial offer, the stock has traded 16+mm shares in the market, which is about 40% of Real World Float.
  • Some of that has been traded multiple times. Looking only at that data would suggest a higher pro-ration, but I expect there is other data one must take into account.
  • Benefit One shares are currently trading at a level suggesting either lower participation OR higher back-end despite the earnings guidance downgrade at announcement.

Weiqiao Textile (2698 HK)’s Pre-Conditional Merger By Absorption

By David Blennerhassett

  • After shares were suspended on the 27 November, Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK) has now announced a pre-conditional privatisation at HK$3.50 per H-share.
  • This Offer, from its parent, is by way of a Merger by Absorption, which incorporates a Scheme-like vote. There is no tendering condition.
  • The Offer Price is a premium to last close is a hefty 104.68%. and around a six-year high. This is done. 

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

By Brian Freitas

  • AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU) could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.
  • There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.
  • With the exception of A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), shorts have been increasing on nearly all the potential and close deletions.

P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update

By Travis Lundy

  • The Partial Offer launched last month by Taisei Corp (1801 JP) to take a 50.2% stake in Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) ends at the beginning of next week.
  • This hasn’t been a very “exciting” trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. 
  • Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.

EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Appeals Brief Is All Bark, No Bite

By Arun George

  • Eoflow (294090 KS) filed a 117-page appeal against the amended preliminary injunction (PI), sparking a 16% share price rally. Insulet Corp (PODD US) is required to respond by 14 December.
  • Eoflow argues that the Massachusetts District Court committed legal errors. However, Eoflow’s arguments are rehashed from those that the district court has already dismissed with balanced counterarguments. 
  • The appeal is Eoflow’s last roll of the dice. Eoflow’s appeal brief worryingly notes that the PI profoundly imperils both the Medtronic transaction and its status as a going concern.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
  • Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping, Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. 

Dissenters Mobilise As Chindata (CD US)’s Shareholders Approve Bain’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 11 August, Chinese data center provider Chindata Group (CD US) and major shareholder Bain Capital entered into a definitive agreement at US$8.60/ADS.
  • The EGM was held yesterday, the 4 December, and the merger was approved by 97.75% of the total votes cast. No specific PRC regulatory approval is needed for this merger. 
  • All good right? Not quite. There’s still the nagging issue involving 22.79% of shares out objecting to the deal, exceeding the 12% dissenting threshold, a condition to the merger. 

Navigating the Potential of Hankook & Company’s Revised Tender Offer

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the price almost 10% above ₩20,000, it’s practically fair to regard MBK’s tender offer as effectively canceled, raising the question of the proxy battle’s potential continuation.
  • There is a significant likelihood that MBK has prepared a next-phase plan involving an upward adjustment of the offering price, considering the tight situation of successfully securing the target volume.
  • Essentially, there’s a high likelihood that the situation will resemble the earlier battle between HYBE and Kakao Corp over S.M. Entertainment Co at the start of this year.

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Daily Brief Australia: Evolution Mining and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Evolution Mining Placement – Back to Equity Markets Again to Fund Another M&A Deal


Evolution Mining Placement – Back to Equity Markets Again to Fund Another M&A Deal

By Clarence Chu

  • Evolution Mining (EVN AU) is looking to raise around US$350m to partially fund its acquisition of an 80% stake in the Northparkes copper and gold mines.
  • While the acquisition wasn’t explicitly flagged, the firm has guided that it had been eyeing acquisitions into gold/copper pathways. Thus, we would argue that the deal is somewhat well flagged.
  • That being said, at 14 days of three month ADV, the deal isn’t a particularly small one for the firm to digest.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Eoflow, Hankook & Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Appeals Brief Is All Bark, No Bite
  • Navigating the Potential of Hankook & Company’s Revised Tender Offer


EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Appeals Brief Is All Bark, No Bite

By Arun George

  • Eoflow (294090 KS) filed a 117-page appeal against the amended preliminary injunction (PI), sparking a 16% share price rally. Insulet Corp (PODD US) is required to respond by 14 December.
  • Eoflow argues that the Massachusetts District Court committed legal errors. However, Eoflow’s arguments are rehashed from those that the district court has already dismissed with balanced counterarguments. 
  • The appeal is Eoflow’s last roll of the dice. Eoflow’s appeal brief worryingly notes that the PI profoundly imperils both the Medtronic transaction and its status as a going concern.

Navigating the Potential of Hankook & Company’s Revised Tender Offer

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the price almost 10% above ₩20,000, it’s practically fair to regard MBK’s tender offer as effectively canceled, raising the question of the proxy battle’s potential continuation.
  • There is a significant likelihood that MBK has prepared a next-phase plan involving an upward adjustment of the offering price, considering the tight situation of successfully securing the target volume.
  • Essentially, there’s a high likelihood that the situation will resemble the earlier battle between HYBE and Kakao Corp over S.M. Entertainment Co at the start of this year.

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Daily Brief United States: US Global Jets ETF, Orthofix International Nv, Culp Inc, MariMed, Russell 2000 Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • JETS US Equity: Takeoff Accomplished, Time to Return to Base
  • Orthofix International (OFIX US): Limited Downside Likely; Looking Ahead to 2024 with New Management
  • Culp, Inc.- Culp Reports Improved 2QFY24
  • MariMed, Inc. – Begins Manufacturing and Processing in Illinois
  • Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals


JETS US Equity: Takeoff Accomplished, Time to Return to Base

By Mohshin Aziz


Orthofix International (OFIX US): Limited Downside Likely; Looking Ahead to 2024 with New Management

By Tina Banerjee

  • In November, Orthofix International Nv (OFIX US) named Massimo Calafiore as incoming President and CEO. Mr. Calafiore has extensive knowledge in orthopedics and spine, and M&A integration expertise.
  • Orthofix has performed well and operated smoothly following management transition. In 3Q23, revenue increased 61% YoY on a reported basis and 1% YoY on a pro forma basis to $184M.
  • The company expects to deliver much higher adjusted profits next year and to exit 2024 cash-flow positive from an estimated $100 million outflow for 2023.

Culp, Inc.- Culp Reports Improved 2QFY24

By Water Tower Research

  • Culp, Inc. issued results for its 2QFY24 on Monday, December 4 after market close.
  • Revenue and operating profit were better for the just-reported quarter than those posted in 2QFY23 and our estimates, bolstering management’s contention that it would deliver—and investors would witness—sequential quarterly improvements in operating profitability for the balance of FY24.
  • Management also noted its belief of posting positive consolidated operating profitability by 4QFY24.

MariMed, Inc. – Begins Manufacturing and Processing in Illinois

By Water Tower Research

  • MariMed has begun manufacturing and processing cannabis products in its new kitchen in Mount Vernon, Illinois.
  • As often happens in cannabis, there were construction and regulatory delays, but the company expects to have its award-winning edibles in Illinois stores in time for the holidays.
  • Illinois is the sixth-most populated state with 12.7 million residents.

Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

By Joe Jasper

  • Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).
  • The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.
  • Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish

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Daily Brief China: Water Oasis, Chindata Group, JD.com Inc (ADR), Atour Lifestyle Holdings, China Vanke , Dekon Food and Agriculture Group, Huaxia Eye Hospital Group, ZKH Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shortlist Of 2024 High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety
  • Dissenters Mobilise As Chindata (CD US)’s Shareholders Approve Bain’s Offer
  • [Blue Lotus Sector Update]: 2024 High Conviction Idea: Two Scenarios Towards Year End
  • Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement – Coming Back for Round Two This Year
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke
  • Dekon Food and Agriculture Group IPO Trading – Tight Float at Listing, Subscription Rates Were Tepid
  • China’s Ophthalmic Hospital Market – The Major Players, the Business Logic and the Outlook
  • ZKH Group Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Hardly Looks Any More Attractive


Shortlist Of 2024 High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety

By Sameer Taneja


Dissenters Mobilise As Chindata (CD US)’s Shareholders Approve Bain’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 11 August, Chinese data center provider Chindata Group (CD US) and major shareholder Bain Capital entered into a definitive agreement at US$8.60/ADS.
  • The EGM was held yesterday, the 4 December, and the merger was approved by 97.75% of the total votes cast. No specific PRC regulatory approval is needed for this merger. 
  • All good right? Not quite. There’s still the nagging issue involving 22.79% of shares out objecting to the deal, exceeding the 12% dissenting threshold, a condition to the merger. 

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: 2024 High Conviction Idea: Two Scenarios Towards Year End

By Eric Wen

  • In our view, China growth equity faces high geopolitical uncertainty in C3Q24 ahead of the US election, but can experience a relief rally in C1Q24.
  • We prepared high beta and low risk recommendations for 2024
  • For low-risk, we recommend JD/JDL/JDH, Tencent and Luckin. For high beta, we recommend BEKE, LI Auto and Kuaishou.

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Placement – Coming Back for Round Two This Year

By Ethan Aw

  • Legend Capital (LC), one of the principal shareholders of Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US), is looking to raise around US$124m through a secondary selldown. 
  • The deal is a large one to digest, at approximately 22.6 days of three month ADV and 5.5% of current mcap.  
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Dekon Food and Agriculture Group IPO Trading – Tight Float at Listing, Subscription Rates Were Tepid

By Clarence Chu

  • Dekon Food and Agriculture Group (DFAG CH) raised around US$128m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Dekon Food and Agriculture Group (DFAG) is a vertically integrated livestock farming enterprise in China.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

China’s Ophthalmic Hospital Market – The Major Players, the Business Logic and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Against the backdrop of China’s reopen after the pandemic is under control, the performance comparison of the four major ophthalmic hospitals in the A-share market has attracted investors’ attention.
  • Aier Eye Hospital is already going downhill. Bright Eye Hospital leads Huaxia Eye Hospital in national layout/growth rate. He Eye Hospital has a big gap compared to the rest three.
  • The “weaknesses” of Huaxia and He Eye Hospital in business layout isn’t obvious currently.But in good times, the impact of businesses with strong consumption attributes on performance would be amplified.

ZKH Group Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Hardly Looks Any More Attractive

By Ethan Aw

  • ZKH Group (ZKH US) is looking to raise about US$150m in its upcoming US IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$300m.
  • ZKH Group is a leading maintenance repair and operations (MRO) procurement service platform in China, according to CIC, providing one-stop MRO procurement and management services and digital and fulfillment solutions.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about its PHIP updates.

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Daily Brief India: Eicher Motors, Paytm and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • 2024 High Conviction | Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Himalayan Ambitions
  • [Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns


2024 High Conviction | Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | Himalayan Ambitions

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Several catalysts on the horizon support the case for a re-rating of Eicher Motors (EIM IN)
  • The recent launch of the 450cc platform is positioned as a significant launch pad, propelling EIM’s aspirations to establish global leadership in the middleweight segment.
  • We anticipate EIM to deliver higher-than-anticipated revenue growth with the possibility of a multiple re-rating for the company.

[Week 12] Namaste India 🙏 | Paytm (PAYTM IN) | Opportunity Size Outweigh Growth Concerns

By Pranav Bhavsar


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Daily Brief Japan: Ps Mitsubishi Construction, Ryohin Keikaku, Medikit Co Ltd, Nikkei 225, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes
  • Medikit (7749 JP) Below Market Tender Offer Buyback
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Analysis
  • Still Many “Parent-Subsidiary Listings” Keep to Provide Investment Opportunities for Inefficiencies


P.S.Mitsubishi Contruction (1871 JP) – Pro-Ration Expectations Update

By Travis Lundy

  • The Partial Offer launched last month by Taisei Corp (1801 JP) to take a 50.2% stake in Ps Mitsubishi Construction (1871 JP) ends at the beginning of next week.
  • This hasn’t been a very “exciting” trade. Small, boring sector. One big company selling to another. But it has traded cheap. However, volume has been high. 
  • Volume has been so high it causes me to revisit my pro-ration expectations, so I have updated estimates and tables below.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
  • Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping, Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. 

Medikit (7749 JP) Below Market Tender Offer Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Japanese medical products maker Medikit Co Ltd (7749 JP) Tuesday announced a buyback of ~12% of its shares from the founder’s company.
  • The stock is extraordinarily illiquid. 12mo ADV is <US$40k/day. But Medikit runs 40% gross margins, 20% EBIT margins, and trades at an EV/revenue ratio of ~0.8x. It’s cash-rich, and cheap.
  • But it’s an interesting situation. The buyback (and its reason) combined with the shareholder structure allow me to idly speculate this is an MBO candidate.

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Analysis

By Nico Rosti

  • After a strong rally in November, the Nikkei is currently in a temporary corrective phase, reaching between the Q1 and Q2 support levels of the MRM LONG chart.
  • There are 2 possible paths from here: 1) a modest pullback, followed by a rally into the end of December, 2) a dive to <= 31672, and December closes down.
  • Both these scenarios offer very good seasonal LONG odds for January closing up (based on our SRM model), so we suggest going LONG the Nikkei 225 on the pullback.

Still Many “Parent-Subsidiary Listings” Keep to Provide Investment Opportunities for Inefficiencies

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Maintaining a parent-subsidiary listing that fails to ensure the interests of minority shareholders indicates that the parent company is willing to tolerate dysfunctional corporate governance of the subsidiary.
  • Parent-Subsidiary listings drain the profits of profitable subsidiaries from the parent company, reducing profits and corporate value. The solution to this problem is to eliminate parent-subsidiary listings.
  • The elimination of parent-subsidiary listings through TOB will reduce market inefficiencies and improve the quality of TSE-listed companies.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Northbound Flows (November): Inflows (Consumer Staples and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Northbound Flows (November): Inflows (Consumer Staples, Healthcare) Offset by Outflows (Financials)


Northbound Flows (November): Inflows (Consumer Staples, Healthcare) Offset by Outflows (Financials)

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
  • Consumer Staples (inflows of $818 million) led the inflows. Financials ($1,109 million worth of outflows), Materials ($1,131 million worth of outflows) led the outflows.
  • We highlight inflows into Moutai, Hygon Information Technology, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Mindray, China Yangtze Power, Shenzhen Inovance Technology.

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