Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Gentrack (GTK NZ) and Turners Automotive (TRA NZ) will be added to the S&P/NZX 50 Index while Synlait Milk (SML NZ) and Pacific Edge (PEB NZ) will be deleted.
There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.
The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.

Elastic: 2Q’FY24 Earnings Review – Elastic Cloud Is a Bright Spot, PT Raised To $121

By Andrei Zakharov

Elastic NV (ESTC US) reported a solid quarter, reflecting strong cloud revenue growth, ~13% non-GAAP operating margin and rapid adoption of ESRE.
Elastic NV (ESTC US) shares rallied 35%+ during regular trading session and closed up ~37% on Friday at $110.20. I raised PT to $121 from $112.
However, I downgrade Elastic NV (ESTC US) to Equal-weight from Overweight on valuation and expect the stock to trade in-line with peers.

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Dec 04

Daily Brief Health Care: Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin, IHH Healthcare, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump
IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Double-Digit Growth Across Key Metrics for Q3; Bed Expansion to Continue
MBOs Would Open the Door to Investment for Companies that Weren’t Invested for Fear Of “Value Trap”

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

Japan Catalyst’s press release supports the idea of a Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.
The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.
While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Double-Digit Growth Across Key Metrics for Q3; Bed Expansion to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) reported stellar performance in 3Q23 exceeding expectations, with double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, while PAT more than doubles on higher patient volumes and improved case mix.
To deliver profitable growth, IHH will continue its organic expansion, including adding close to 4,000 beds in the next five years to its existing 12,000 operational beds.
Notwithstanding the strong underlying demand for quality healthcare services driving operational and financial growth, IHH expects cost pressures from elevated inflation, and rising interest rates.

MBOs Would Open the Door to Investment for Companies that Weren’t Invested for Fear Of “Value Trap”

By Aki Matsumoto

The fact that many IPO companies either don’t need to raise capital or don’t share the same goal of going public is the crux of the problem.
It would be conducive to improving quality of TSE as a whole if companies that cannot share the objectives of a listed company with shareholders are delisted through an MBO.
An MBO by the founding family would open the door to investment for companies that have been unable to invest for fear of falling into the “value trap.”

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Dec 04

Daily Brief Financials: Helia Group , Indusind Bank, Seazen (Formerly Future Land) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

S&P/ASX 200 Index Rebalance (Dec 2023): There Is Positioning but Probably Not Enough
Need to Reactivate the Stakeholders’ Relationship Committee in the Wake of the IndusInd Bank Fiasco
Morning Views Asia:

S&P/ASX 200 Index Rebalance (Dec 2023): There Is Positioning but Probably Not Enough

There are 3 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 15 December. One name is a relative surprise.
There will be 8-15 days of ADV to buy on the inclusions and there will be 12-18 days of ADV to sell on the deletions.
Cumulative excess volume and changes in short interest indicate there will be positioning in most stocks. But it may not yet be enough to cover the passive trade.

Need to Reactivate the Stakeholders’ Relationship Committee in the Wake of the IndusInd Bank Fiasco

By Hemindra Hazari

The rejection by shareholders of an independent director’s re-appointment reveals the growing influence of proxy advisory firms on institutional investors
Indian corporate boards appear ill-prepared to engage with stakeholders to provide valuable feedback
Stakeholders Relationship Committee of the Board needs to reactivated and re-oriented to engage with stakeholders to improve governance

Morning Views Asia:

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Dec 04

Daily Brief Consumer: Fast Retailing, Cheng Shin Rubber Ind Co., Ltd., Kia Corp, Want Want, Fu Shou Yuan, H World Group , Heineken NV and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Changes Lead to Huge Turnover
FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M
Pair Trade: Want Want (151 HK) And Mengniu (2319 HK)
Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Magic Is About to Disappear, but Is Still Undervalued
H World Group (1179 HK): Uniquely Well-Placed for Lower-Tier Markets
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade

Minimal changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.
The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.
There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) AND funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983) to consider. We are right on the threshold. The question is whether it gets “help” in January.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Changes Lead to Huge Turnover

There are 5 adds and 4 deletes to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December with implementation taking place from 15-21 December.
The constituent changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 16.1% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.26bn.
There will be positioning in a lot of the adds/deletes and the real action could be in the other stocks with capping and/or funding flows.

FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M

The Samsung KODEX Fn Top10 Equal Weight ETF (395170 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of US$264m.
We expect Kia Corp (000270 KS) to replace Posco Future M (003670 KS) in the index at the December rebalance.
There will be 0.4x ADV to buy in Kia Corp (000270 KS) while passives will need to sell 0.1x ADV of Posco Future M (003670 KS).

Pair Trade: Want Want (151 HK) And Mengniu (2319 HK)

By Steve Zhou, CFA

Want Want (151 HK) and China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) are both fairly liquid names in the China consumer staples sector.
Both companies trade at virtually the same forward PE of 14x. However, I expect Want Want’s near term sales growth to be lower than market expectations.
The upside risk for Want Want could be its overseas expansion efforts, as overseas sales now account for mid to high-single-digit of sales and grew high-teens yoy in FY1H24.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Magic Is About to Disappear, but Is Still Undervalued

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The high growth in 23H1 is unsustainable. 23H2 YoY revenue growth would be single-digit. Due to 23H1’s high base, we cannot rule out the possibility of negative growth in 24H1.
In the case of lower-than-expected external M&A activities, Fu Shou Yuan has accumulated a large amount of cash, which would drag down ROE. So, current dividend policy still needs improvement.
Fu Shou Yuan’s expansion would be relatively moderate. Double-digit revenue growth can still be expected in the long term. The market value of above RMB15 billion is more reasonable.

H World Group (1179 HK): Uniquely Well-Placed for Lower-Tier Markets

By Osbert Tang, CFA

H World Group (1179 HK) has been over-penalised by market weakness as its share price was off 16.8% YTD. It turned around in 3Q23 and guidance for 4Q23 is solid.
Surge in operating and adjusted EBITDA margins indicated high operating leverage. Occupancy has not returned to 2019 level, but there will be more margin expansion when this happens.
55% of rooms in China are of economy type, and 82% are in tier-2 and below cities. Such characteristics allow it to benefit from the prevailing consumption downgrade.

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have all tightened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.8%); GBL, 34.9% (vs. 35.5%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 14.9%);
Industrivärden C, 4.9% (vs. 6%); Investor B, 14.6% (vs. 16.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.9% (vs. 40.9%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 17.2% (vs. 21%).
What seems interesting: holding trades, Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.

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Dec 04

Daily Brief Australia: Helia Group , Origin Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

S&P/ASX 200 Index Rebalance (Dec 2023): There Is Positioning but Probably Not Enough
Merger Arb Mondays (4 Dec) – Origin, OreCorp, Healius, CIMC Vehicles, T&K Toka, Eoflow, Hollysys

S&P/ASX 200 Index Rebalance (Dec 2023): There Is Positioning but Probably Not Enough

There are 3 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 15 December. One name is a relative surprise.
There will be 8-15 days of ADV to buy on the inclusions and there will be 12-18 days of ADV to sell on the deletions.
Cumulative excess volume and changes in short interest indicate there will be positioning in most stocks. But it may not yet be enough to cover the passive trade.

Merger Arb Mondays (4 Dec) – Origin, OreCorp, Healius, CIMC Vehicles, T&K Toka, Eoflow, Hollysys

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – Eoflow (294090 KS), 111 Inc (YI US), Irc Ltd (1029 HK), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Healius (HLS AU), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Origin Energy (ORG AU).
Lowest spreads – Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Taisho.

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Dec 04

Daily Brief South Korea: Kia Corp, Samsung KODEX Top5Plus Total Return ETF and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M
Investigating Arbitrage Trading Potential to Exploit ETF Tracking Error Widening in Korea

FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M

The Samsung KODEX Fn Top10 Equal Weight ETF (395170 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of US$264m.
We expect Kia Corp (000270 KS) to replace Posco Future M (003670 KS) in the index at the December rebalance.
There will be 0.4x ADV to buy in Kia Corp (000270 KS) while passives will need to sell 0.1x ADV of Posco Future M (003670 KS).

Investigating Arbitrage Trading Potential to Exploit ETF Tracking Error Widening in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

Korea’s financial authorities prompted LPs to refrain from providing liquidity to ETFs through short-selling. This has resulted in a significant increase in both the frequency and magnitude of tracking errors.
Therefore, it’s time to actively explore this from an arbitrage trading standpoint. ETF arbitrage involves straightforward steps: purchasing and redeeming ETFs, followed by selling the underlying shares in the market.
The focus should be particularly directed towards sector ETFs that include a select few large-cap stocks carrying single-stock futures.

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Dec 04

Most Read: Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin, Cosmo Energy Holdings , Uber Technologies , Fast Retailing, Helia Group , Cheng Shin Rubber Ind Co., Ltd., Kia Corp, Samsung KODEX Top5Plus Total Return ETF and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Japan Activism: Japan Catalyst Fund Calls Out Taisho Pharma Committee on MBO Price
Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San’s Cosmo Energy Stake
S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER
March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade
Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump
S&P/ASX 200 Index Rebalance (Dec 2023): There Is Positioning but Probably Not Enough
Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Changes Lead to Huge Turnover
FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M
Investigating Arbitrage Trading Potential to Exploit ETF Tracking Error Widening in Korea
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

Japan Activism: Japan Catalyst Fund Calls Out Taisho Pharma Committee on MBO Price

Japan Catalyst Fund is a relatively young effort in the Japan “engagement activism” space, having been founded by Monex Group in September 2019. Total assets remain apparently small.
Championed by Monex Group founder Oki Matsumoto, despite small AUM, the fund has decent access. As of end-October, Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdings (4581 JP) was #5 and 5.26%. Now it’s #2.
Friday, they released a statement about the MBO. It isn’t a barn-burner, but the stock has traded through terms since announcement at a too-low price. And nobody else has commented.

Mischief Managed! Iwatani Corp (8088) Buys Out Murakami-San’s Cosmo Energy Stake

The question of how Murakami-san would get out of his stake in Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) was always a biggie. He likes to sell stock in tender offer buybacks.
Cosmo wasn’t going to do that for him. They promised dividends and a high payout ratio, but that left the question was how he was going to get out.
A semi-obvious solution was to find a corporate partner to buy his stake and today, Iwatani Corp (8088 JP) announced that it had bought 19.86% of Murakami-san’s 20.01% holding.

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Calling an UBER

Uber Technologies (UBER US), Jabil Circuit (JBL US) and Builders Firstsource (BLDR US) will be added to the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 15 December.
There are a bunch of inclusions. deletions and migrations across the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), the S&P Midcap 400 Index, and the S&P SmallCap 600 Index.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy around US$18bn of Uber Technologies (UBER US). There has been positioning in the stock for just over a month now.

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade

Minimal changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.
The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.
There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) AND funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983) to consider. We are right on the threshold. The question is whether it gets “help” in January.

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

Japan Catalyst’s press release supports the idea of a Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.
The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.
While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.

S&P/ASX 200 Index Rebalance (Dec 2023): There Is Positioning but Probably Not Enough

There are 3 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 15 December. One name is a relative surprise.
There will be 8-15 days of ADV to buy on the inclusions and there will be 12-18 days of ADV to sell on the deletions.
Cumulative excess volume and changes in short interest indicate there will be positioning in most stocks. But it may not yet be enough to cover the passive trade.

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: Changes Lead to Huge Turnover

There are 5 adds and 4 deletes to the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December with implementation taking place from 15-21 December.
The constituent changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 16.1% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.26bn.
There will be positioning in a lot of the adds/deletes and the real action could be in the other stocks with capping and/or funding flows.

FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M

The Samsung KODEX Fn Top10 Equal Weight ETF (395170 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of US$264m.
We expect Kia Corp (000270 KS) to replace Posco Future M (003670 KS) in the index at the December rebalance.
There will be 0.4x ADV to buy in Kia Corp (000270 KS) while passives will need to sell 0.1x ADV of Posco Future M (003670 KS).

Investigating Arbitrage Trading Potential to Exploit ETF Tracking Error Widening in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

Korea’s financial authorities prompted LPs to refrain from providing liquidity to ETFs through short-selling. This has resulted in a significant increase in both the frequency and magnitude of tracking errors.
Therefore, it’s time to actively explore this from an arbitrage trading standpoint. ETF arbitrage involves straightforward steps: purchasing and redeeming ETFs, followed by selling the underlying shares in the market.
The focus should be particularly directed towards sector ETFs that include a select few large-cap stocks carrying single-stock futures.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.

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Dec 04

Daily Brief India: Indusind Bank and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Need to Reactivate the Stakeholders’ Relationship Committee in the Wake of the IndusInd Bank Fiasco

Need to Reactivate the Stakeholders’ Relationship Committee in the Wake of the IndusInd Bank Fiasco

By Hemindra Hazari

The rejection by shareholders of an independent director’s re-appointment reveals the growing influence of proxy advisory firms on institutional investors
Indian corporate boards appear ill-prepared to engage with stakeholders to provide valuable feedback
Stakeholders Relationship Committee of the Board needs to reactivated and re-oriented to engage with stakeholders to improve governance

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Dec 04

Daily Brief United States: Elastic NV and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Elastic: 2Q’FY24 Earnings Review – Elastic Cloud Is a Bright Spot, PT Raised To $121

Elastic: 2Q’FY24 Earnings Review – Elastic Cloud Is a Bright Spot, PT Raised To $121

By Andrei Zakharov

Elastic NV (ESTC US) reported a solid quarter, reflecting strong cloud revenue growth, ~13% non-GAAP operating margin and rapid adoption of ESRE.
Elastic NV (ESTC US) shares rallied 35%+ during regular trading session and closed up ~37% on Friday at $110.20. I raised PT to $121 from $112.
However, I downgrade Elastic NV (ESTC US) to Equal-weight from Overweight on valuation and expect the stock to trade in-line with peers.

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Dec 04

Daily Brief Japan: Fast Retailing, Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade
Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump
MBOs Would Open the Door to Investment for Companies that Weren’t Invested for Fear Of “Value Trap”

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal – Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade

Minimal changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.
The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.
There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) AND funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983) to consider. We are right on the threshold. The question is whether it gets “help” in January.

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump