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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Utilities: Vistra and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Vistra’s Nuclear Power Play Hits A Wall: Delayed Data Center Deal Shakes Market!


Vistra’s Nuclear Power Play Hits A Wall: Delayed Data Center Deal Shakes Market!

By Baptista Research

  • Vistra Corp shares recently pulled back sharply, dropping over 5% to \$206.82 after hitting an all-time intraday high of \$219.82 just a day earlier.
  • The dip follows a downgrade by Jefferies, reflecting mounting investor concerns over delays in finalizing a high-stakes data center deal for the company’s Comanche Peak nuclear facility.
  • While Vistra’s CEO Jim Burke expressed strong confidence that a deal will ultimately be signed, uncertainty around its timing and regulatory factors tied to Texas Senate Bill 6 have introduced a level of risk that the market is now pricing in.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shift Inc, Horizon Robotics, NVIDIA Corp, Tekscend Photomask, Tencent, Factset Research Systems Inc, Torex Semiconductor, Palantir Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy
  • Horizon Robotics Placement – Another Opportunistic Raising
  • NVIDIA’S Genius Partnership With OpenAI May Be About More Than You Think
  • Tekscend Photomask IPO – The Negatives – Market Share
  • Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case
  • Tencent/Netease: Both Received One Approval in September
  • NVIDIA: An Options Strategy for Riding the AI Data Center Waves
  • FactSet Research: Will Seamless Data Ecosystems Give It An Edge Against Refinitiv & Bloomberg?
  • Full Report – TOREX SEMICONDUCTOR (6616 JP) – September 25, 2025
  • Palantir Is Dominating AI In 2025—But Its Valuation Is Terrifying!


Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy

By Travis Lundy

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is “only” 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.
  • It was a “growth stock” for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited. 
  • The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.

Horizon Robotics Placement – Another Opportunistic Raising

By Akshat Shah

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Oct’24 IPO and another US$600m via a placement in June’25. It’s back again to raise another US$834m via a top-up placement.
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

NVIDIA’S Genius Partnership With OpenAI May Be About More Than You Think

By William Keating

  • OpenAI and NVIDIA announced an audacious alliance under which the latter will invest $100 billion in the former
  • That investment will be staged to coincide with each completed gigawatt of compute capacity, up to ten gigawatts in total, which the two companies are planning to jointly install
  • Is this NVIDIA cutting out the middleman and setting up their very own private hyperscale enterprise to lease their GPUs directly to OpenAI? Uh oh!

Tekscend Photomask IPO – The Negatives – Market Share

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) (TP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, aims to raise around US$830m in its Japan IPO.
  • TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). Pricing is on 30 September.
  • In Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on its worrisome revenue growth trends, weakening lead revenue indicators, cash burn, and large post-IPO share overhang. 

Tencent/Netease: Both Received One Approval in September

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the September batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game in September. 

NVIDIA: An Options Strategy for Riding the AI Data Center Waves

By Jay Cameron

  • NVIDIA’s has a strong position in the AI industry, but global trade policies introduce short-term uncertainties. Strong revenues and cash position buffer against policy-driven obstacles, particularly concerning its China revenues.
  • We highlight NVIDIA’s technological leadership, including its full-stack computing infrastructure and rapid platform transitions. External pressures weigh on projected revenues, including export restrictions and increasing competition from major tech companies.
  • We see potentially overpriced implied volatility. This strategy aims to generate premium while managing risks associated with price movements, especially in the context of evolving geopolitical and competitive landscapes.

FactSet Research: Will Seamless Data Ecosystems Give It An Edge Against Refinitiv & Bloomberg?

By Baptista Research

  • FactSet Research Systems delivered strong fourth quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 results, reflecting its continued resilience and capability to navigate shifting market conditions.
  • The firm reported a 5.4% revenue growth rate to $2.3 billion for the fiscal year, and highlighted a significant increase in organic Annual Subscription Value (ASV), with the fourth quarter seeing the largest ASV addition in its history at $81.8 million.
  • This ASV growth, especially notable at 5.7% sequentially, signals robust demand for FactSet’s offerings, particularly in wealth and asset management sectors, driven by an increasing appetite for data solutions.

Full Report – TOREX SEMICONDUCTOR (6616 JP) – September 25, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • As can be seen from the graph below, the major JPY 12.6bn capex initiative to secure production capacity to enable consolidated net sales to increase by 1.5x (announced in May-2022) peaked in FY24/3 and depreciation peaked in FY25/3.
  • With confirmation of the upturn in the silicon cycle, earnings have entered a full-fledged recovery, with Q1 OP posting a high 41% progress ratio relative to the 4-year historical average of 27%. The key takeaway from the graph below is the strong recovery in EBITDA.
  • The current high P/E is a common feature at the start of cyclical recoveries, while EV/EBITDA has only just returned to its long-term historical average (see P21). 

Palantir Is Dominating AI In 2025—But Its Valuation Is Terrifying!

By Baptista Research

  • Palantir Technologies has been one of 2025’s biggest winners in the AI equity space, delivering a jaw-dropping rally of nearly 140% year-to-date.
  • Following a selloff in mid-August that briefly interrupted its meteoric ascent, the stock has rebounded strongly and remains a key beneficiary of enterprise AI spending and hyperscaler capital expenditure cycles.
  • The company’s Q2 results added fuel to the rally, showcasing record-breaking revenue of over $1 billion, a 48% year-overyear increase, and a staggering Rule of 40 score of 94%.

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Daily Brief India: Bajaj Finserv , Punjab National Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Long Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) Vs. Short Bajaj Finance (BAF IN): Statistical Arb Spread Hits Trigger
  • Long Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) Vs. Short Canara Bank (CBK IN): Statistical Arbitrage Opportunity


Long Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) Vs. Short Bajaj Finance (BAF IN): Statistical Arb Spread Hits Trigger

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) vs. Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Going long Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) and short Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) targets a 6% return.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Long Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) Vs. Short Canara Bank (CBK IN): Statistical Arbitrage Opportunity

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: The Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) vs. Canara Bank (CBK IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • Highlights: Going long Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) and short Canara Bank (CBK IN) targets a 4% return.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

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Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Gro, Microport Scientific, Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., Jinke Smart Services, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Alibaba, Tencent, NIO , Iron Ore and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Horizon Robotics Placement – Another Opportunistic Raising
  • Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK): Now Overshot To The Downside
  • Microport Scientific Placement – Should Be Well-Flagged, Will Lift Overhang
  • Kangji Medical (9997 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register
  • Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Unconditional Offer Now Open To Tendering
  • Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside
  • Alibaba Goes All-In On AI: $50B+ Budget, Qwen3-Max, Global Cloud Surge, $4T Bet!
  • Tencent/Netease: Both Received One Approval in September
  • Primer: NIO (NIO US) – Sep 2025
  • [IO Technicals 2025/39] Iron Ore Rally Wobbles as Policy Push and Supply Hiccups Already Priced In


Horizon Robotics Placement – Another Opportunistic Raising

By Akshat Shah

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Oct’24 IPO and another US$600m via a placement in June’25. It’s back again to raise another US$834m via a top-up placement.
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK): Now Overshot To The Downside

By David Blennerhassett

  • In What’s Up (& Up) With Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)?, I thought Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK) was a bubble after gaining 190% in the past six months. 
  • My guess was that SDHG’s high shareholder concentration was still very much present, and the stock was getting (unjustly) squeezed.
  • The SFC concurred on the 18th September, and issued a concentration warning. SDHG’s shares cratered 76% on the 19th September, before recovering 49%. Quite the ride. 

Microport Scientific Placement – Should Be Well-Flagged, Will Lift Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) aims to raise around US$150m via selling its remaining shares in Microport Scientific (853 HK).
  • Otsuka had sold the majority of its stake earlier this year.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register

By David Blennerhassett

  • With the pre-cons squared away as per the 3rd September announcement, the key risk to Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK)‘s Offer is the Scheme vote. 
  • The HK$9.25/share consideration price (declared final), was an uninspiring 9.9% premium to last close. But pitched around a four-year high. And peers are down 10% on average since the Offer.
  • A persual of the s329 investigative reports provides a significantly clearer picture on who holds what.

Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu’s Unconditional Offer Now Open To Tendering

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 28th April 2025, PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) announced a possible unconditional MGO take-under at HK$6.67/share.
  • At an auction, the Boyu-backed Offeror and Concert Parties, (then) holding 37.86%, bought a 18.05% stake in Jinke, subject to CSDC oversight. Approval was received on the 19th September.
  • The Composite Document is now out, and shareholders, should they so choose, can tender. The first close is the 17th October. The Offer may get extended.  I doubt it. 

Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside

By Rahul Jain

  • Copper & Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.
  • Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.
  • Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.

Alibaba Goes All-In On AI: $50B+ Budget, Qwen3-Max, Global Cloud Surge, $4T Bet!

By Baptista Research

  • Alibaba Group has announced an aggressive expansion of its artificial intelligence ambitions, earmarking over $50 billion in new AI and cloud investments over the next three years—an amount greater than its entire spending over the last decade.
  • This significant push is aimed at positioning the company at the forefront of Asia’s generative AI and cloud infrastructure race.
  • Central to this effort is the launch of its next-generation large language model, Qwen3-Max, following the success of Qwen2.5, which already has over 90,000 derivative models globally.

Tencent/Netease: Both Received One Approval in September

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the September batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
  • Both Tencent and Netease received approval for one game in September. 

Primer: NIO (NIO US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • NIO is a prominent player in China’s premium electric vehicle (EV) market, distinguished by its strong brand, innovative Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model, and focus on user community.
  • The company faces significant headwinds, including intense competition in the Chinese EV market, persistent unprofitability, and high cash burn, necessitating reliance on capital markets for funding, as evidenced by a recent US$1 billion equity offering.
  • Future success hinges on management’s ability to execute on ambitious targets, such as improving gross margins with new models and achieving profitability, a goal they have missed in the past.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


[IO Technicals 2025/39] Iron Ore Rally Wobbles as Policy Push and Supply Hiccups Already Priced In

By Umang Agrawal

  • Citi warns iron ore’s rally is overstretched, with policy support and supply disruptions priced in, leaving limited upside ahead.
  • Managed Money participants are ramping up net long exposure, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment and rising confidence in stronger demand and price gains.
  • Iron ore’s momentum is fading as Bollinger Bands and MACD flash bearish signals, with sellers gaining control and downside risks rising.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Nickel Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Nickel Industries – Event Flash – Launches New Notes And Concurrent Tender Offer – Lucror Analytics


Nickel Industries – Event Flash – Launches New Notes And Concurrent Tender Offer – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

  • Nickel Industries (NIC) launched a roadshow yesterday to market a USD 144A/RegS 5NC2 senior unsecured notes offering.
  • The new notes are rated B1 by Moody’s and B+ by Fitch.
  • The expected size is USD 500 mn.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Service Stream, Hyundai Elevator Co, Itochu Corp, Braemar Shipping Services PLC, Petards Group, Plug Power Inc, Qualtec , Advanced Drainage Systems, Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A, Frontier Management Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Clear Signs of Pre-Positioning; Stay Away from the Crowds
  • A Pair Trade Between Hyundai Elevator and Hyundai Movex Amid a 7% Stake Sale in Hyundai Movex
  • Itochu (8001 JP) — Structural Growth, Fair Valuation, Solid TSR
  • Braemar — H1 trading as expected, but rates edging up
  • Hybridan Research: Petards Group plc: Positive Progress to a Re-rating
  • Plug Power Goes Parabolic—Can The Hydrogen Hype Last?
  • (25 Sep 2025) Qualtech <9165> — Fisco Company Research
  • Advanced Drainage Systems’ $1B Acquisition Could Change The Water Game Forever!
  • Sunwoda Electronic A/H Listing: Small Player, Competitive Markets
  • Q2 Follow-Up – Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – September 10, 2025


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: Clear Signs of Pre-Positioning; Stay Away from the Crowds

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200. 
  • The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

A Pair Trade Between Hyundai Elevator and Hyundai Movex Amid a 7% Stake Sale in Hyundai Movex

By Douglas Kim

  • On 24 September, Hyundai Elevator Co (017800 KS) announced that it plans to sell 7.8 million shares of Hyundai Movex (319400 KS), representing 7% of its outstanding shares.
  • Over the next several weeks, we expect continued outperformance of Hyundai Elevator vs Hyundai Movex. 
  • We like the pair trade of going long Hyundai Elevator and going short Hyundai Movex over the next 1-3 months, especially due to concerns about a 7% sale in Movex.

Itochu (8001 JP) — Structural Growth, Fair Valuation, Solid TSR

By Rahul Jain

  • Earnings Growth: Non-resource engines (Food, FamilyMart, ICT, Textiles) compounding at double-digit rates; mid- to high-single-digit EPS growth outlook.
  • Valuation: Trades at ~13× FY2026E P/E, in line with peers, offering steady TSR without a valuation premium.
  • Capital Returns: ¥200/share dividend + ¥150 bn buybacks underpin 40–50% payout; EPS uplift from share reduction.

Braemar — H1 trading as expected, but rates edging up

By Edison Investment Research

Braemar’s H126 trading update confirms that the first half was a tough period but the company is making progress against its FY30 growth targets (announced earlier this year). These include the opening of a new Cape Town office focusing on tanker chartering, which brought Braemar’s global footprint to 19 offices in 14 countries. The long-term fundamentals remain in place and we expect a return to growth in FY27e. Following the update, our profit estimates are unchanged, as is our valuation of 462p, which offers c 90% upside.


Hybridan Research: Petards Group plc: Positive Progress to a Re-rating

By Hybridan

  • Petards Group PLC (PEG) announced it’s interim results for the half year ended 30 June 2025.
  • We have published research on this which is attached and a snapshot of the research is below.
  • The Affini acquisition, the third acquisition since 2016, has had a strong positive impact on the Interims results to June 2025, while the other divisions achieved either higher or similar revenues to last year.

Plug Power Goes Parabolic—Can The Hydrogen Hype Last?

By Baptista Research

  • Shares of Plug Power have defied gravity in recent weeks, notching an unprecedented 10-day winning streak and more than doubling in value to $2.82 as of September 23, 2025.
  • Despite a historical track record of operating losses and continued projections of negative earnings in fiscal 2025, the stock has caught fire amid a convergence of bullish catalysts.
  • Chief among them is the potential for a $370 million cash injection from warrant exercises by Heights Capital Management, following a new disclosure by the company.

(25 Sep 2025) Qualtech <9165> — Fisco Company Research

By FISCO

Key points (machine generated)

  • Qualtec reported record highs in sales, operating profit, and ordinary profit for the fiscal year ending June 2025, with sales reaching 4,025 million yen, an 11.1% increase year-on-year.
  • The company’s growth is attributed to rising orders in power semiconductor testing and bio-related sectors.
  • Qualtec specializes in reliability evaluation services and has gained recognition for its Total Quality Solution (TQS) among major clients, including complete vehicle manufacturers.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.


Advanced Drainage Systems’ $1B Acquisition Could Change The Water Game Forever!

By Baptista Research

  • Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. reported its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, reflecting a mix of both positive performance indicators and challenges in the current market environment.
  • Notably, the company achieved a 33.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, showcasing resilience despite facing demand headwinds.
  • Revenue increased by 2%, driven primarily by the recent Orenco acquisition, while organic sales experienced a slight decline, although core nonresidential and residential markets remained stable.

Sunwoda Electronic A/H Listing: Small Player, Competitive Markets

By Nicholas Tan

  • Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A (300207 CH) is looking to raise around US$400m in its upcoming H-share listing.
  • It is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer. It covers a rich product matrix including consumer battery, EV battery and ESS.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Q2 Follow-Up – Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – September 10, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Frontier Management (hereafter, the Company) announced its H1 FY2025/12 results after market close on August 13, 2025.
  • Net sales rose 26.6% YoY to JPY 5,771 mn, supported by the consolidation of HobbyLink Japan, an investee company, while operating profit recorded a loss of JPY 10 mn.
  • In addition, ordinary profit posted a loss of JPY 199 mn due to financing costs such as arrangement fees for a syndicated loan.

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Daily Brief Japan: Shift Inc, Soft99 Corp, Mandom Corp, Tekscend Photomask, Sony Financial Group, Itochu Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Torex Semiconductor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy
  • [Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Comes Out Against Effissimo Bid 66% Above MBO Price
  • [Japan M&A] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Launched at ¥1,960, Stock Is 15% Higher and Activists Dream Bigger
  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The Board Opposes Effissimo’s Hostile Offer and Hints the MBO Will Succeed
  • Tekscend Photomask IPO – The Negatives – Market Share
  • Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case
  • Sony Spin-off (Sony Financial Group) Spin-off Deep Dive
  • Itochu (8001 JP) — Structural Growth, Fair Valuation, Solid TSR
  • Annual Securities Reports Are Legal Documents, so They Carry More Significance than Other Documents
  • Full Report – TOREX SEMICONDUCTOR (6616 JP) – September 25, 2025


Shift (3697 JP) – Short-Selling into Nikkei 225 Inclusion = Crowded Register Dynamic = Squeezy

By Travis Lundy

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) runs a software quality assurance testing business. 400% revenue growth in 5 years, but this year to Aug25 is “only” 17.5% according to Q3 results guidance.
  • It was a “growth stock” for a long while, and large long-only growth investors flocked to the name. In the past several months many have exited. 
  • The stock will be included in the Nikkei 225 Average next Tuesday. The supply/demand dynamics here to there are interesting. Afterwards they may be more interesting.

[Japan M&A/Activism] Soft99 Board Comes Out Against Effissimo Bid 66% Above MBO Price

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board of Directors came out AGAINST the Effissimo ¥4,100/share counterbid to the original ¥2,465/share MBO.
  • “The Special Committee advised that the Tender Offer would not contribute to the enhancement of the Company Group’s corporate value, nor would it be fair to the Company’s general shareholders.”
  • ¥2,465 is fair. ¥4,100 is not fair. Absolute hogwash. Unmitigated blatherskite. Pure trumpery. Codswallop, buncombe, taradiddle, balderdash, and nincompoopery too. I expound below.

[Japan M&A] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Launched at ¥1,960, Stock Is 15% Higher and Activists Dream Bigger

By Travis Lundy

  • On 10 September, CVC announced a family-led MBO of well-known Japanese hair-care/cosmetics firm Mandom Corp (4917 JP). Agreed, supported, recommended, for a start date end-September. It was also too light.
  • I suggested the open-ish register could trigger activists. The stock opened just above terms post-announcement and then traded higher. Shares fell today but it is still 15% through terms. 
  • Hibiki Path Advisors wrote a strong letter. Murakami announced a 6.67% stake yesterday, 8.39% today. But that’s 5 days old. Today, the company announced the TOB starts tomorrow. Still fun. 

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The Board Opposes Effissimo’s Hostile Offer and Hints the MBO Will Succeed

By Arun George

  • The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has, unsurprisingly, opposed the Effissimo offer for several reasons. Notably, they do address the huge price disparity between the two offers. 
  • While most of the reasons to justify the opposition are weak, the Board unexpectedly notes that as of 24 September, the MBO retained acceptances to satisfy its minimum tendering condition. 
  • Despite the significant premium of the Effissimo offer, this development suggests that the current acceptances for the MBO are sticky, thereby increasing the likelihood that Effissimo’s offer will fail. 

Tekscend Photomask IPO – The Negatives – Market Share

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) (TP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, aims to raise around US$830m in its Japan IPO.
  • TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. It is seeking to raise up to JPY123 billion (US$832 million). Pricing is on 30 September.
  • In Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on its worrisome revenue growth trends, weakening lead revenue indicators, cash burn, and large post-IPO share overhang. 

Sony Spin-off (Sony Financial Group) Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Sony Group Corporation (6758) is planning to spin off 80% of its stake in Sony Financial Group Inc. (8729) on September 29, 2025.
  • Sony Financial Group Inc. is the financial services arm of Sony, comprised of three main businesses
  • The spin-off will generate ~ ¥100BN in the current fiscal year and pay a ¥50BN annual dividend.

Itochu (8001 JP) — Structural Growth, Fair Valuation, Solid TSR

By Rahul Jain

  • Earnings Growth: Non-resource engines (Food, FamilyMart, ICT, Textiles) compounding at double-digit rates; mid- to high-single-digit EPS growth outlook.
  • Valuation: Trades at ~13× FY2026E P/E, in line with peers, offering steady TSR without a valuation premium.
  • Capital Returns: ¥200/share dividend + ¥150 bn buybacks underpin 40–50% payout; EPS uplift from share reduction.

Annual Securities Reports Are Legal Documents, so They Carry More Significance than Other Documents

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies that responded that they disclosed their annual securities reports prior to the AGM in response to investor needs are considering postponing the timing of their shareholders’ meetings.
  • Annual securities reports are legal documents, and false statements are punishable by law, so the level of authenticity differs from other documents. It takes time to read them for AGM.
  • There needs to be an increase in the number of investors who carefully read annual securities reports and use them to make investment decisions.

Full Report – TOREX SEMICONDUCTOR (6616 JP) – September 25, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • As can be seen from the graph below, the major JPY 12.6bn capex initiative to secure production capacity to enable consolidated net sales to increase by 1.5x (announced in May-2022) peaked in FY24/3 and depreciation peaked in FY25/3.
  • With confirmation of the upturn in the silicon cycle, earnings have entered a full-fledged recovery, with Q1 OP posting a high 41% progress ratio relative to the 4-year historical average of 27%. The key takeaway from the graph below is the strong recovery in EBITDA.
  • The current high P/E is a common feature at the start of cyclical recoveries, while EV/EBITDA has only just returned to its long-term historical average (see P21). 

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Daily Brief Macro: Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T
  • Resilience Is Reinstating
  • Oil futures: Crude extends gains as drone strikes on Russia escalate
  • [IO Technicals 2025/39] Iron Ore Rally Wobbles as Policy Push and Supply Hiccups Already Priced In
  • Oil futures: Crude eases from highs, Russia disruptions eyed
  • Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?
  • China is a growth stock, not a value stock
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments -26 September 2025
  • Cambodia Rubber Sector Gains Traction Amid Rising Domestic Demand
  • CX Daily: Beijing Bets on New Policy Tool to Bolster Emerging Sector Investment


Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

By Rahul Jain

  • Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.
  • Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.
  • Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.

Resilience Is Reinstating

By Phil Rush

  • Falling US jobless claims and bullish GDP revisions are reinstating evidence of ongoing resilience. Underlying GDP only slowed by about 0.1pp in H1, or 15% of 2024’s average.
  • Risk management rate cuts to balance the higher costs of being wrong on the downside raise the probability that easing proves premature and swiftly ends.
  • The ECB already sees the transmission of its past cuts trending loan growth higher. It may reach pressures consistent with hikes next year, and it already clashes with easing.

Oil futures: Crude extends gains as drone strikes on Russia escalate

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were challenging monthly highs Wednesday, extending the previous session’s gains as investors eyed threats to oil supplies, including Russian diesel, after the latest spate of refinery attacks.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $69.13/b (2010 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $67.63/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $64.86/b against a previous close of $63.41/b.
  • Benchmarks have largely been rangebound in September with markets torn between supply disruptions and concerns over a Q4 supply glut as OPEC+ continues its unwinding program.

[IO Technicals 2025/39] Iron Ore Rally Wobbles as Policy Push and Supply Hiccups Already Priced In

By Umang Agrawal

  • Citi warns iron ore’s rally is overstretched, with policy support and supply disruptions priced in, leaving limited upside ahead.
  • Managed Money participants are ramping up net long exposure, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment and rising confidence in stronger demand and price gains.
  • Iron ore’s momentum is fading as Bollinger Bands and MACD flash bearish signals, with sellers gaining control and downside risks rising.

Oil futures: Crude eases from highs, Russia disruptions eyed

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures eased back from multi-week highs Thursday amid profit taking but remained at the top end of the summer trading range.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $68.80/b (0945 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $69.31/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at   $64.45/b against a previous close of $64.99/b.
  • Prices slipped after hitting the highest levels since July on what was put down to profit-taking, but concerns over Russian supplies continued to underpin the relatively elevated levels.

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.
  • Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.
  • Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.

China is a growth stock, not a value stock

By Mark Tinker

  • China is building a whole new operating system for its economy, just as Apple built iOS.

  • We need to judge China accordingly, as Steve Job’s Apple, not Jack Welch’s GE

  • A multi-polar world is now one of two operating systems. We need to make sure our investments can run on both.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments -26 September 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Asian exports remained resilient, led by Thailand, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, though Japan showed clear trade weakness.

  • The US economy continues expanding but faces risks from an inverted yield curve, dollar weakness, and Trump tariffs.

  • Massive technology investment raises growth hopes, but skilled labor shortages and heavy import reliance limit sustainable impact.


Cambodia Rubber Sector Gains Traction Amid Rising Domestic Demand

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Rubber exports rebound in July, lifting Cambodia’s monthly earnings  
  • Domestic consumption surges 76%, reshaping supply-demand dynamics  
  • Smallholder reforms push sector toward increased efficiency

CX Daily: Beijing Bets on New Policy Tool to Bolster Emerging Sector Investment

By Caixin Global

  • Policy /In Depth: Beijing Bets on New Policy Tool to Bolster Emerging Sector Investment
  • WTO /: China to Give Up Special Treatment in Future WTO Talks, Premier Says
  • Beverages /: Beverage Giant Wahaha to Abandon Eponymous Brand Name

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Daily Brief Health Care: Microport Scientific, Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., ClearPoint Neuro , uniQure NV, MapLight Therapeutics, D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc., Nektar Therapeutics, Pfizer Inc, Cochlear Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Microport Scientific Placement – Should Be Well-Flagged, Will Lift Overhang
  • Kangji Medical (9997 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register
  • Primer: ClearPoint Neuro (CLPT US) – Sep 2025
  • Primer: uniQure NV (QURE US) – Sep 2025
  • Maplight Therapeutics (MPLT): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Biotech Treating CNS Diseases
  • D. Western Therapeutics Institute (4576 JP) – September 25, 2025
  • Primer: Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR US) – Sep 2025
  • Pfizer’s $4.9 Billion Metsera Bet: Can It Threaten Novo & Lilly’s Obesity Dominance?
  • Cochlear Ltd (COH AU): Earnings Recovery to Continue on Nucleus Nexa Implant Launch


Microport Scientific Placement – Should Be Well-Flagged, Will Lift Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) aims to raise around US$150m via selling its remaining shares in Microport Scientific (853 HK).
  • Otsuka had sold the majority of its stake earlier this year.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Kangji Medical (9997 HK): A Closer Look At The Shareholder Register

By David Blennerhassett

  • With the pre-cons squared away as per the 3rd September announcement, the key risk to Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument (9997 HK)‘s Offer is the Scheme vote. 
  • The HK$9.25/share consideration price (declared final), was an uninspiring 9.9% premium to last close. But pitched around a four-year high. And peers are down 10% on average since the Offer.
  • A persual of the s329 investigative reports provides a significantly clearer picture on who holds what.

Primer: ClearPoint Neuro (CLPT US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • ClearPoint Neuro is uniquely positioned as a critical enabler for the high-growth neuro-therapeutics market, providing the only commercially available platform for real-time, MRI-guided, minimally invasive navigation and delivery to the brain.
  • The company’s hybrid business model, combining capital equipment sales with a growing base of recurring revenue from disposable products and services for its 60+ biopharma partners, offers a scalable path to future growth.
  • While demonstrating impressive and consistent revenue growth (31% in 2024), the company remains unprofitable with significant cash burn, reflecting a high-investment phase focused on R&D, market expansion, and supporting partner clinical trials.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Primer: uniQure NV (QURE US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • uniQure is a pioneering gene therapy company with one approved product, HEMGENIX®, for Hemophilia B, which is the first and only gene therapy for this indication, commercialized by its partner CSL Behring.
  • The company’s lead pipeline candidate, AMT-130 for Huntington’s disease, has shown statistically significant slowing of disease progression in a pivotal Phase I/II study and has received multiple expedited regulatory designations from the FDA, including Breakthrough Therapy and RMAT.
  • While possessing a promising pipeline and validated technology, uniQure is currently unprofitable, with significant cash burn from R&D activities, making future value creation highly dependent on the clinical success and commercial uptake of its key assets, particularly AMT-130.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Maplight Therapeutics (MPLT): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Biotech Treating CNS Diseases

By IPO Boutique

  • The company that describes itself as a biopharmaceutical company focused on improving the lives of patients suffering from debilitating central nervous system.
  • Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Leerink Partners, Stifel are the bookrunners on this IPO.
  • Their lead product candidate, ML-007C-MA, is currently in a Phase II trial.

D. Western Therapeutics Institute (4576 JP) – September 25, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • DWTI announced before the open on 9/25 that the US FDA (Food and Drug Administration) has granted marketing approval for DW-5LBT (lidocaine patch, trade name Bondlido), as a treatment for neuropathic pain after shingles (post- herpetic neuralgia) in adults, jointly developed with MEDRx (4586 TSE Growth).
  • Earlier this week on Monday 9/22, DWTI announced that the FDA had conditionally approved a change in the trade name from “Lydolyte” to “Bondlido” (the FDA had requested a name change to avoid confusion with an existing product).
  • Preparations for the launch will be made, including the selection of sales partners, with sales planned to begin in the US in the first half of 2026.

Primer: Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR US) – Sep 2025

By αSK

  • Nektar Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company at a pivotal juncture, with its future success largely dependent on its lead candidate, rezpegaldesleukin (REZPEG), for autoimmune diseases like atopic dermatitis and alopecia areata.
  • The company’s proprietary PEGylation and polymer conjugate technology platform offers a potential durable competitive advantage by improving the properties of existing and novel drugs, though its historical clinical development track record has been mixed.
  • Financially, Nektar is in a precarious position with significant historical net losses and a reliance on cash reserves to fund its pipeline development, making potential partnerships and successful clinical trial outcomes critical for long-term viability.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


Pfizer’s $4.9 Billion Metsera Bet: Can It Threaten Novo & Lilly’s Obesity Dominance?

By Baptista Research

  • Pfizer Inc has announced a definitive agreement to acquire clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company Metsera Inc. for $47.50 per share in cash, a 42.5% premium to Metsera’s last closing price, with an additional $22.50 per share potentially payable through contingent value rights (CVRs) linked to key clinical milestones.
  • The total deal value could reach $7.3 billion.
  • This strategic move follows Pfizer’s earlier struggles in the obesity segment after the failure of its weight-loss pill and declining COVID-19 revenues.

Cochlear Ltd (COH AU): Earnings Recovery to Continue on Nucleus Nexa Implant Launch

By Tina Banerjee

  • Cochlear Ltd (COH AU) expects to report FY26 underlying net profit of $435–460M, an 11–17% increase on FY25, up 5–11% on a comparative (cloud adjusted) basis.
  • The Nucleus Nexa System has been launched in Europe and Asia Pacific in mid-June 2025 and will be launched in the U.S. by the end of Q1FY26.
  • The company expects strong FY26 revenue growth in developed markets from the launch of the new Nucleus Nexa implant, with overall revenue and earnings growth weighted to the second half.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Northern Star Resources, Southern Copper, Copper, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Anglo American , Iron Ore, Crude Oil, Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Northern Star Placement: Secondary Sell Down by Gold Fields; Tight Discount
  • Copper Prices to Rally To 11k USD/Ton Due To Grasberg Force Majeure
  • Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T
  • Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside
  • Anglo–Teck: A Deal Built on Fragility
  • [IO Technicals 2025/39] Iron Ore Rally Wobbles as Policy Push and Supply Hiccups Already Priced In
  • Oil futures: Crude extends gains as drone strikes on Russia escalate
  • Nanshan Aluminium — A Southeast Asia Alumina Pure Play at a Discount
  • Oil futures: Crude eases from highs, Russia disruptions eyed
  • Cambodia Rubber Sector Gains Traction Amid Rising Domestic Demand


Northern Star Placement: Secondary Sell Down by Gold Fields; Tight Discount

By Nicholas Tan

  • Northern Star Resources (NST AU) is looking to raise around US$725m in a secondary placement.
  • The proceeds will be used to pay down Gold Fields.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Copper Prices to Rally To 11k USD/Ton Due To Grasberg Force Majeure

By Sameer Taneja


Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

By Rahul Jain

  • Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.
  • Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.
  • Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.

Zijin Mining: US$100bn Breakout on Copper Surge, Valuation Still Offers Upside

By Rahul Jain

  • Copper & Gold Torque: Zijin has crossed US$100bn market cap as copper tops US$10,300/t and gold nears US$3,770/oz, with shares up ~60% in 3M and ~83% in 12M.
  • Spin-Off Catalyst: Zijin Gold International IPO raised US$3.2bn at HK$71.6/sh; on our quality-weighted view, fair value is ~US$38.5bn EV vs ~US$24bn at IPO.
  • Valuation Upside: 2027E SOTP points to HK$34.8/sh base (+12%), HK$38–39/sh spot (+25%), and HK$39–41/sh bull (+30%); detailed Zijin Gold valuation in our companion report.

Anglo–Teck: A Deal Built on Fragility

By Pranay Yadav

  • Glencore’s dual role as competitor and gatekeeper shifts bargaining leverage, making deal terms contingent on a rival’s consent.
  • Cross-Continental reviews across Canada, Chile, and beyond create compounding risks of serial delays, amplified by political sensitivities over copper’s strategic importance and public opposition to foreign takeovers.
  • The option of counterbids or merger breakup invites activists and bidders, fuelling uncertainty and volatility 

[IO Technicals 2025/39] Iron Ore Rally Wobbles as Policy Push and Supply Hiccups Already Priced In

By Umang Agrawal

  • Citi warns iron ore’s rally is overstretched, with policy support and supply disruptions priced in, leaving limited upside ahead.
  • Managed Money participants are ramping up net long exposure, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment and rising confidence in stronger demand and price gains.
  • Iron ore’s momentum is fading as Bollinger Bands and MACD flash bearish signals, with sellers gaining control and downside risks rising.

Oil futures: Crude extends gains as drone strikes on Russia escalate

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures were challenging monthly highs Wednesday, extending the previous session’s gains as investors eyed threats to oil supplies, including Russian diesel, after the latest spate of refinery attacks.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $69.13/b (2010 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $67.63/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $64.86/b against a previous close of $63.41/b.
  • Benchmarks have largely been rangebound in September with markets torn between supply disruptions and concerns over a Q4 supply glut as OPEC+ continues its unwinding program.

Nanshan Aluminium — A Southeast Asia Alumina Pure Play at a Discount

By Rahul Jain

  • Volume growth: Capacity rising from 3 mtpa to 4 mtpa by early 2026 supports double-digit EPS growth.
  • Margin strength: >50% gross margins and net-cash balance sheet provide resilience despite alumina cyclicality.
  • Valuation appeal: Trades at 7–8× FY25E P/E and ~5× EV/EBITDA, a discount to regional peers.

Oil futures: Crude eases from highs, Russia disruptions eyed

By Quantum Commodity Intelligence

  • Crude oil futures eased back from multi-week highs Thursday amid profit taking but remained at the top end of the summer trading range.
  • Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $68.80/b (0945 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $69.31/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at   $64.45/b against a previous close of $64.99/b.
  • Prices slipped after hitting the highest levels since July on what was put down to profit-taking, but concerns over Russian supplies continued to underpin the relatively elevated levels.

Cambodia Rubber Sector Gains Traction Amid Rising Domestic Demand

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Rubber exports rebound in July, lifting Cambodia’s monthly earnings  
  • Domestic consumption surges 76%, reshaping supply-demand dynamics  
  • Smallholder reforms push sector toward increased efficiency

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