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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Australia: United Malt Group Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • United Malt (UMG AU): Malteries Soufflet’s Binding Offer

United Malt (UMG AU): Malteries Soufflet’s Binding Offer

By Arun George

  • The AFR reports that United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) has received a binding offer from Malteries Soufflet at A$5.00 per share, a 13.6% premium to the last close price.
  • The high spread reflected the risk of a no-deal or price cut due to the weak 1HFY23 results and lack of updates since the end of the 10-week due diligence.
  • The offer is conditional on shareholders and FIRB approval. Shareholders will be supportive and breathe a sigh of relief at receiving a binding offer with unchanged terms. 

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Panin Financial, TransTRACK.ID, Finfra and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Panin Financial – Vanishing Growth, Falling ROE, Despite Likely Rebalancing Beneficiary
  • Indonesian Fleet-Tracking Startup TransTRACK Bags US$2.1M Funding
  • Finfra Tops up with $1m to Enable Embedded Lending for Indonesian Firms

Panin Financial – Vanishing Growth, Falling ROE, Despite Likely Rebalancing Beneficiary

By Daniel Tabbush

  • PNLF has seen its asset growth ratchet downward, running at near 12-year lows at +2% YoY 
  • Phases of ROE decline are apparent, from 12-13%, then to 9%, and now to 5-6%
  • At least, there is a rebound in profit growth in FY22, after dismal 3 years

Indonesian Fleet-Tracking Startup TransTRACK Bags US$2.1M Funding

By e27

  • Indonesia-based fleet-tracking startup TransTRACK has secured US$2.1 million in a pre-Series A funding round.
  • Ortus Star, Cocoon Capital, and YCAB Ventures led the funding round. Goldbell Investment, NP Consulting, Damson Capital, and unnamed angel investors participated.
  • TransTRACK plans to use the fresh funds to expand operations to 100 cities in Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, providing an end-to-end supply chain solution for the business players in the region.

Finfra Tops up with $1m to Enable Embedded Lending for Indonesian Firms

By Tech in Asia

  • Since 2015, Indonesia’s digital economy has grown 10x, reaching US$77 billion in gross merchandise value. However, credit penetration remains low for individuals and businesses alike, with only 3% of Indonesians having a credit card.
  • Access to credit would allow businesses to boost customer adoption, among other things, and Indonesia-based fintech firm Finfra is looking to fill this niche.
  • The startup has raised US$1 million to help make this happen.

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief United States: Gracell Biotechnologies Inc, General Mills and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (GRCL.US) – May Fail to Solve the Real Pain Points in CAR-T Field
  • General Mills: A Disappointing Quarter For Short-Term Investors And Speculators

Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (GRCL.US) – May Fail to Solve the Real Pain Points in CAR-T Field

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The latest data of GC012F/GC007g at ASCO/EHA drove up share price, but the current clinical data do not necessarily guarantee the final druggability. So, we advise investors to be rational.
  • Gracell’s pipeline may not solve the real pain points of CAR-T therapy. Until the global momentum of cell therapy is reversed, there’s no need to expect too much from Gracell.
  • Gracell’s stock price would continue to fluctuate with positive clinical data or progress. However, the liquidity of this stock isn’t good. In this situation, both ups and downs are meaningless. 

General Mills: A Disappointing Quarter For Short-Term Investors And Speculators

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • General Mills has just reported its full fiscal year results and investors are not impressed.
  • Expectations of lower organic revenue growth and uncertainties around profitability would likely continue to weigh on the share price.
  • Long-term investors, however, could take advantage of this near-term dynamic while enjoying the higher dividend.

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Long/Short Position Under Currents
  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Vedanta Resources

Long/Short Position Under Currents

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Rise into late June/early July cycle peak on track with scope to overshoot after the 4th of July break (then expect a more volatile mid-July period). Reducing on strength.
  • SPX kissed our 4,500 target with an overshoot projection at 4,547. Recent long from 4,470.
  • Top Asia longs: NKY, Taiwan and India. Top shorts have been HSI and Kospi 200 (heavy bias to add on upticks). July will usher in a more volatile phase.

Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief China: ZJLD Group, Dali Foods Group, Keep Inc, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Red Star Macalline Group Corp, J&T Global Express, Bosideng International Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September
  • Merger Arb Mondays (03 Jul) – Dali Foods, Poly Culture, NWS, Yitai, JSR, DDH1, Silk Laser
  • Keep IPO Valuation Analysis: The Minimum Offer Price Looks Attractive. Trading Debut: July 12, 2023
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Early Look at Potential Changes in December
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: Red Star’s New Controlling Shareholder
  • J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 1: Chinese Express Operation | ‘Haven’t We Met Somewhere Before?’
  • Bosideng (3998 HK): Outlook Stays Promising

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.
  • We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.
  • There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Jul) – Dali Foods, Poly Culture, NWS, Yitai, JSR, DDH1, Silk Laser

By Arun George

Keep IPO Valuation Analysis: The Minimum Offer Price Looks Attractive. Trading Debut: July 12, 2023

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Keep Inc., the largest online fitness platform in China, set terms for HK IPO and plans to raise ~HK$667M at the high end of the range at HK$61.46/share. 
  • CICC is leading the offering and Keep Inc (KEEP HK) will trade under the stock code “3650”. The company offers ~10.8M shares at a price range of HK$28.92-HK$61.46.
  • The low end of the range implies an IPO valuation of HK$15B, which looks attractive and is equal to the last round valuation of ~$2B that was led by SoftBank.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Early Look at Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the December rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 8 December.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.98% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.32bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) over the last five months, though there is some near-term underperformance.

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings: Red Star’s New Controlling Shareholder

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stock mentioned in this regular insight is Red Star Macalline Group Corp (1528 HK).

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 1: Chinese Express Operation | ‘Haven’t We Met Somewhere Before?’

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we look at the development of J&T’s China business over the past few years, including J&T’s purchase of Best Inc’s express operation in late 2021
  • We also compare J&T’s Chinese operation to five listed Chinese express companies in terms of scale, market position, financial performance, and relationships with e-comm platforms
  • Finally, we present a framework for the valuation of J&T’s China business, and offer a list of questions we would ask management as the company prepares for its IPO

Bosideng (3998 HK): Outlook Stays Promising

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While having a slow FY23, Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK) is well-positioned to capture the rebound in down apparel sales growth as pent-up demand is released.  
  • We also expect a recovery in margin, further improvement in channel efficiency and operating leverage from cost control will add to earnings momentum. 
  • Management expects revenue growth will at least sustain at the rate in the last 5 years. The stock’s valuations are cheap when compared with growth outlook and global peers. 

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Japan: Toyo Construction, JSR Corp, Will Group Inc, Flux and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent
  • Weekly Deals Digest (02 Jul) – JSR, Dali Foods, NWS, Poly Culture, Yitai, DDH1/Perenti, Tryt
  • Will Group (6089 Jp) – 4Q Follow-Up
  • Japanese Startup Flux Bags $32m for No-Code AI Platform

Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent

By Travis Lundy

  • In my piece Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO I said I thought YFO would lose, but it would be close.
  • I thought it hinged on the shape of the register. It turns out it did. And it turns out they won, and it was close. Analysis is presented.
  • What next? The new board takes its seats and may entertain a new takeover offer. I could see a buyout price a fair bit higher than here. 

Weekly Deals Digest (02 Jul) – JSR, Dali Foods, NWS, Poly Culture, Yitai, DDH1/Perenti, Tryt

By Arun George

Will Group (6089 Jp) – 4Q Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • The day after the Company announced 4Q FY23/3 results and FY24/3 initial guidance for consolidated revenue flat and OP -21.0%, the share price dropped -6.3% on heavy volume, maintaining a weak trend thereafter relative to a strong underlying market.
  • SIR believes this is because the new MTP differed from investors‘ growth image.
  • While the Company would be remiss not to highlight the high base from the post-COVID surge in special demand for permanent placement as a short-term risk for this term, investors may have been sensitive to the slowdown in growth over the coming two years.

Japanese Startup Flux Bags $32m for No-Code AI Platform

By Tech in Asia

  • Businesses across the world are rushing to adopt AI. Japan-based startup Flux is targeting companies in the country who want to do so at lower cost and higher efficiency.
  • The firm developed a no-code AI platform called Flux AI. According to Flux, the platform enables businesses to leverage AI technologies such as predictive analytics, natural language processing, and large language models without needing prior coding skills or knowledge.
  • The startup has just raised US$32 million in a series B round led by DNX Ventures.

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JSR Corp, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (02 Jul) – JSR, Dali Foods, NWS, Poly Culture, Yitai, DDH1/Perenti, Tryt
  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Vedanta Resources

Weekly Deals Digest (02 Jul) – JSR, Dali Foods, NWS, Poly Culture, Yitai, DDH1/Perenti, Tryt

By Arun George

Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Toyo Construction, Will Group Inc, J&T Global Express, Applus Services SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent
  • Will Group (6089 Jp) – 4Q Follow-Up
  • J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 1: Chinese Express Operation | ‘Haven’t We Met Somewhere Before?’
  • Apollo/Applus: Somewhat Cheap Offer and First Mover Advantage

Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent

By Travis Lundy

  • In my piece Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO I said I thought YFO would lose, but it would be close.
  • I thought it hinged on the shape of the register. It turns out it did. And it turns out they won, and it was close. Analysis is presented.
  • What next? The new board takes its seats and may entertain a new takeover offer. I could see a buyout price a fair bit higher than here. 

Will Group (6089 Jp) – 4Q Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • The day after the Company announced 4Q FY23/3 results and FY24/3 initial guidance for consolidated revenue flat and OP -21.0%, the share price dropped -6.3% on heavy volume, maintaining a weak trend thereafter relative to a strong underlying market.
  • SIR believes this is because the new MTP differed from investors‘ growth image.
  • While the Company would be remiss not to highlight the high base from the post-COVID surge in special demand for permanent placement as a short-term risk for this term, investors may have been sensitive to the slowdown in growth over the coming two years.

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 1: Chinese Express Operation | ‘Haven’t We Met Somewhere Before?’

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In this insight we look at the development of J&T’s China business over the past few years, including J&T’s purchase of Best Inc’s express operation in late 2021
  • We also compare J&T’s Chinese operation to five listed Chinese express companies in terms of scale, market position, financial performance, and relationships with e-comm platforms
  • Finally, we present a framework for the valuation of J&T’s China business, and offer a list of questions we would ask management as the company prepares for its IPO

Apollo/Applus: Somewhat Cheap Offer and First Mover Advantage

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for Applus Services SA (APPS SM), whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter offer.
  • The market is capable of forcing Apollo to sweeten its proposal to reach 75% acceptances. Many risk arbitrageurs have positions in Applus and may not settle for the current premium.
  • This situation has been flagged for a while. If already long, it is worth holding for a possible better offer, which could come around €10/share, a 5.2% increase.

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Keep Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Flux, TransTRACK.ID, ApartX, Frontline Industrial Software and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Keep IPO Valuation Analysis: The Minimum Offer Price Looks Attractive. Trading Debut: July 12, 2023
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: New ASML Restrictions Tighten Vice Further on China; AI & The Nvidia/AMD Family
  • Japanese Startup Flux Bags $32m for No-Code AI Platform
  • Indonesian Fleet-Tracking Startup TransTRACK Bags US$2.1M Funding
  • Kazakh Proptech Startup ApartX Raises Seed Funding for SEA Expansion
  • Cocoon Capital invests in AI-powered construction planning simulation platform Frontline

Keep IPO Valuation Analysis: The Minimum Offer Price Looks Attractive. Trading Debut: July 12, 2023

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Keep Inc., the largest online fitness platform in China, set terms for HK IPO and plans to raise ~HK$667M at the high end of the range at HK$61.46/share. 
  • CICC is leading the offering and Keep Inc (KEEP HK) will trade under the stock code “3650”. The company offers ~10.8M shares at a price range of HK$28.92-HK$61.46.
  • The low end of the range implies an IPO valuation of HK$15B, which looks attractive and is equal to the last round valuation of ~$2B that was led by SoftBank.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: New ASML Restrictions Tighten Vice Further on China; AI & The Nvidia/AMD Family

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Netherlands expands range of semiconductor tech restricted for export; Tightening the vice further on China’s semiconductor industry.
  • AI In The Family: Nvidia founder Jensen Huang a distant cousin of AMD CEO Lisa Su.
  • TSMC supplier hit by cyberattack, Hon Hai expanding EV in Vietnam, plus our recent research notes on Hon Hai, Nanya Tech, Himax, Yageo, and Delta.

Japanese Startup Flux Bags $32m for No-Code AI Platform

By Tech in Asia

  • Businesses across the world are rushing to adopt AI. Japan-based startup Flux is targeting companies in the country who want to do so at lower cost and higher efficiency.
  • The firm developed a no-code AI platform called Flux AI. According to Flux, the platform enables businesses to leverage AI technologies such as predictive analytics, natural language processing, and large language models without needing prior coding skills or knowledge.
  • The startup has just raised US$32 million in a series B round led by DNX Ventures.

Indonesian Fleet-Tracking Startup TransTRACK Bags US$2.1M Funding

By e27

  • Indonesia-based fleet-tracking startup TransTRACK has secured US$2.1 million in a pre-Series A funding round.
  • Ortus Star, Cocoon Capital, and YCAB Ventures led the funding round. Goldbell Investment, NP Consulting, Damson Capital, and unnamed angel investors participated.
  • TransTRACK plans to use the fresh funds to expand operations to 100 cities in Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, providing an end-to-end supply chain solution for the business players in the region.

Kazakh Proptech Startup ApartX Raises Seed Funding for SEA Expansion

By e27

  • ApartX, a startup focused on rental property management in Kazakhstan, has secured US$250,000 in a seed funding round from local VC firm Big Sky Capital and Activat VC.
  • The funds will be used for talent acquisition, improving the platform functionality, and expanding into new regions, such as Southeast Asia. It will also bolster its R&D efforts.
  • The company aims to broaden its market presence, forge strategic partnerships, and solidify its position in the industry.

Cocoon Capital invests in AI-powered construction planning simulation platform Frontline

By e27

  • Singapore-based construction planning simulation and optimisation startup Frontline Industrial Software has raised US$700,000 in a seed funding round led by Cocoon Capital.
  • Frontline, founded by Luis Martinez and Ruiqi Ding, enables construction companies, operators and contractors to quickly identify best-in-class construction plans with optimal activity sequencing and resource allocation.
  • The software uses Artificial Intelligence to identify the most efficient and cost-effective construction plans for complex infrastructure, civil, energy, industrial and residential projects.

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Health Care: ST Pharm Co Ltd, Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare, Gracell Biotechnologies Inc, Sanofi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX’s Official Selection Results of SSF & SSO Adds/Deletes: New Rules & Trading Ramifications
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Early Look at Potential Changes in December
  • Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (GRCL.US) – May Fail to Solve the Real Pain Points in CAR-T Field
  • Sanofi (SAN FP): It Is Not Just Only Dupixent; New Drugs and Vaccine Launches to Augment Growth

KRX’s Official Selection Results of SSF & SSO Adds/Deletes: New Rules & Trading Ramifications

By Sanghyun Park

  • The latest update will feature the addition of 25 single stock futures, as well as five single stock options from KOSPI. Eight single stock futures will be removed.
  • The selection will now take place twice a year, in March and September. Also, the selection requirement includes being included in the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ Global.
  • The shortened selection cycle and the significant potential for the change range to vary based on index review results can indeed have a notable impact.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Early Look at Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the December rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 8 December.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.98% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.32bn.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) over the last five months, though there is some near-term underperformance.

Gracell Biotechnologies Inc (GRCL.US) – May Fail to Solve the Real Pain Points in CAR-T Field

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The latest data of GC012F/GC007g at ASCO/EHA drove up share price, but the current clinical data do not necessarily guarantee the final druggability. So, we advise investors to be rational.
  • Gracell’s pipeline may not solve the real pain points of CAR-T therapy. Until the global momentum of cell therapy is reversed, there’s no need to expect too much from Gracell.
  • Gracell’s stock price would continue to fluctuate with positive clinical data or progress. However, the liquidity of this stock isn’t good. In this situation, both ups and downs are meaningless. 

Sanofi (SAN FP): It Is Not Just Only Dupixent; New Drugs and Vaccine Launches to Augment Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sanofi (SAN FP) earns more than 20% revenue from its key growth driver, Dupixent. With expanding indications, Dupixent is on track to record €10B revenue in 2023.
  • The company has added two new drugs in its portfolio this year. Since the beginning of 2023, Sanofi has reported five positive readouts for its pipeline.
  • Sanofi aims to reach €10B vaccine sales by 2030 from €7B in 2022, fueled by accelerated pace of innovation. The company plans to launch RSV vaccine for infants this winter.

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