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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto At The Christmas Table and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto At The Christmas Table

Crypto At The Christmas Table

By Etherbridge

  • We’ve all been there. At some point in the Christmas supper, maybe between the roast turkey and the mince pies, Aunty Hilda or Granda Joe inadvertently starts a heated debate around this “bitcoin thing.”
  • There may be a tech-savvy cousin who tries to come to the rescue and explain how blockchain works or why people value jpegs on the internet, to no avail. 
  • This year the Etherbridge team thought we would do a holiday special titled “Crypto At The Christmas Table” so you are fully prepared to handle any blockchain conversation that may arise. So let’s dive in.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications
  • LG Energy: ESOP Lockup Release (3.5% of SO) & Contrarian Approach Targeting NPS
  • Tyro Payments (TYR AU): Potentia Returns with a A$1.60 Offer
  • Merger Arb Mondays (12 Dec) – Nitro, Tyro, Bigtincan, Warrego, Genex, Elmo, Golden Energy
  • Potentia Bumps But Tyro Shuts Down Talks

Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


LG Energy: ESOP Lockup Release (3.5% of SO) & Contrarian Approach Targeting NPS

By Sanghyun Park

  • The ESOP’s 3.5% stake will be released on January 27. Considering the extremely tight flow situation, this is by no means small. 3.48% is 20 times the recent ADTV.
  • NPS will likely move toward a minimum stake of 6% again for LG Energy, irrespective of LG Energy’s current valuation, despite its recent selling.
  • We should consider the possibility that NPS will contrarily utilize this ESOP lockup release, and we should also design a contrarian position for this lockup release.

Tyro Payments (TYR AU): Potentia Returns with a A$1.60 Offer

By Arun George

  • The AFR reports that Potentia has increased its offer for Tyro Payments (TYR AU) by 26.0% from A$1.27 to A$1.60 per share, a 62.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The revised offer remains light and likely to be rejected again by the Board. Grok’s get-out clause with Potentia now sets the floor price of a competing bid at A$1.85.
  • Potentia’s revised bid is the catalyst for the other rumoured suitors (Westpac Banking (WBC AU) and Moneris) to get their act together. A competing offer of around A$2.00 is possible. 

Merger Arb Mondays (12 Dec) – Nitro, Tyro, Bigtincan, Warrego, Genex, Elmo, Golden Energy

By Arun George


Potentia Bumps But Tyro Shuts Down Talks

By David Blennerhassett

  • Potentia has increased its indicative proposal for Tyro Payments (TYR AU) to A$1.60/share from A$1.27/share. Grok, holding 12.5% of shares out, remains supportive.
  • However, Tyro’s board believes the revised terms remain below what is considered fair, and has ceased all discussions.
  • Separately, Westpac has decided not to submit an Offer. After conducting due diligence. Shares are down 19.5% as I type.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – The Privatization Rumor and the Outlook and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – The Privatization Rumor and the Outlook
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Broadcom Results Provide Some Signs of Strength, Hon Hai Facility Ends Lockdown
  • Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): Carbon-Neutral Industrial Park & Green Hydrogen
  • REIT Watch – Healthcare S-Reits capture Japan opportunities with expanding footprint
  • Wilmar, Wee Hur and TCA chairmen add to their stakes

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – The Privatization Rumor and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China TCM’s privatization rumor led to large fluctuation of its share price last week. Since there have been related rumors twice, this may not be completely over yet.
  • China TCM’s performance may not rebound quickly due to short-term challenges in concentrated TCM granules business. 
  • However, the decline in the revenue side could be a temporary phenomenon. After a difficult period, if the Company’s business could recover as expected, share price would rebound. 

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Broadcom Results Provide Some Signs of Strength, Hon Hai Facility Ends Lockdown

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Broadcom FY22 results indicate strength in data centers, telco infrastructure, enterprise IT spending.
  • Hon Hai’s Zhengzhou facility ends closed-loop operations, returning to a more normal state.
  • U.S. asking Japan to have its firms comply with U.S. chip restrictions on China.

Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): Carbon-Neutral Industrial Park & Green Hydrogen

By Scott Foster

  • Yokogawa is diversifying with integrated controls systems for green hydrogen plants in the Netherlands and Australia and a carbon neutral industrial park in Japan.
  • Holland Hydrogen I, the YURI hydrogen project and the Goi and Soga Complex take the company beyond oil, gas and petrochemicals.
  • Based on long-term energy and environmental priorities, these projects should be immune to recession.

REIT Watch – Healthcare S-Reits capture Japan opportunities with expanding footprint

By Geoff Howie

  • Healthcare S-REITs capture Japan opportunities with expanding footprint Both ParkwayLife Reit (37.1 per cent of its asset value) and First Reit (22.8 per cent of its assets under management) have significant exposure to Japan nursing homes and healthcare-related properties through recent acquisitions.
  • First Reit now has 14 out of its 32 Asian healthcare assets in Japan nursing homes which are operated by five independent and experienced nursing home operators.

Wilmar, Wee Hur and TCA chairmen add to their stakes

By Geoff Howie

  • FOR the five trading sessions that spanned Dec 2 to 8, the Straits Times Index (STI) declined 7 per cent, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 3.7 per cent and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI slipping 1.6 per cent.
  • Overall, institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks for the five sessions ended Dec 8 with S$359 million of net outflow.
  • A married deal on Dec 5 saw Wee Hur Holdings executive chairman and managing director Goh Yeow Lian acquire one million shares at 20 cents per share, increasing his total interest from 44.41 per cent to 44.52 per cent.

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Daily Brief Macro: Global Liquidity Is Set To Rise Strongly In 2023. Why? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Liquidity Is Set To Rise Strongly In 2023. Why?
  • Gazing into 2023: Baseline Risks Assessed
  • Mr. Bond, I Expected You To Die
  • The Stealth Change in Leadership You May Have Missed
  • How Much Is A Recession Priced In?

Global Liquidity Is Set To Rise Strongly In 2023. Why?

By Michael J. Howell

  • Global Liquidity is at ‘maximum tightness’ and is already starting to inch higher. 2023 could see strong gains, as did 2001 following Y2K
  • China’s PBoC has jump-started liquidity injections and the US Fed is again adding liquidity (US$109 billion). On top the weaker US dollar and oil prices will underpin rising liquidity
  • Taking 2001 as the benchmark year for 2023: bonds will be flat and stocks at best range bound, but generally weak. Profits may suffer for another 15-18 months. 

Gazing into 2023: Baseline Risks Assessed

By Said Desaque

  • The resilience of the global economy to monetary tightening in 2022 should not be a major surprise given the lags in the policy transmission mechanism. 
  • The risk of a policy mistake by the Fed will increase in 2023, particularly as more gradual increases in the federal funds rate are instituted. 
  • China’s zero-tolerance policy towards COVID-19 has incurred significant economic costs, but future fiscal stimulus will be more selective due to issues about the impact on productivity and local government finances

Mr. Bond, I Expected You To Die

By Cam Hui

  • The Treasury bond market is turning up while the stock market is turning down, which is a condition that hasn’t been seen for much of this year.
  • We believe this action is the market’s signal of weaker economic growth, which should be bond bullish and equity bearish.
  • However, much of the short-term outlook will hinge on next week’s CPI report and FOMC meeting.

The Stealth Change in Leadership You May Have Missed

By Cam Hui

  • The market is discounting a global recovery as equities are generally leading the rotation, with European equities the clear leader.
  • China is a laggard and dragging down the performance of emerging market equities.
  • U.S. large-cap growth is dragging down the performance of U.S. stocks.

How Much Is A Recession Priced In?

By The Macro Compass

  • This short article will focus on answering a very relevant question: ok, recession, but is it already priced in?
  • Over the last few weeks we kept hearing a recession has become consensus amongst analysts and market pundits, and onboarding consensus macro views at the wrong price in one’s portfolio can be a very expensive exercises.
  • But we can do much more than rely on hearsay. Using different techniques, we can test to what extent a recession is priced in both in bonds and equity markets and derive actionable conclusions.

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Most Read: Tietto Minerals Ltd, Liontown Resources, Softbank Group, Haidilao, TA Chen Stainless Pipe, Toshiba Corp, LG Energy Solution, VinFast, Acotec Scientific Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes
  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes
  • Can Son-San Take Over Softbank Group Through Buybacks?
  • Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, HSTECH, TWDiv+, EPRA Nareit, HSCEI, PCOMP, STAR50, REMX, GDXJ
  • Good Morning Japan |+50bp Fed Hike in the Bag, but Watching Tuesday’s US CPI Print
  • Weekly Deals Digest (11 Dec) – Toshiba, Bigtincan, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, VinFast, Weilong
  • LG Energy: ESOP Lockup Release (3.5% of SO) & Contrarian Approach Targeting NPS
  • VinFast Auto IPO: The Bear Case
  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – A Game Changer with Solid Long-Term Logic

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Four Deletes, Float Changes

By Brian Freitas


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • As expected, there are no adds or deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the December rebalance.
  • There are free float and capping changes that will be implemented at the close on 16 December.
  • One way turnover is estimated at 4.26% and will result in a one-way trade of US$31.5m.

Can Son-San Take Over Softbank Group Through Buybacks?

By Travis Lundy

  • On Thursday 8 December, an article showed up in Bloomberg suggesting Son-san had “increased his stake” as the company bought back shares, giving him more rights, “edging towards a buyout.”
  • That is a stretch. He went from below one-third to above one-third, giving him an explicit veto on shareholder super-majority resolutions, but it’s minor. He now has 34.2%.
  • The suggestion: if he got two-thirds, he could squeeze out minorities without a Tender Offer. Technically true, but not easy. I dig deeper and propose how it could be done.

Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, HSTECH, TWDiv+, EPRA Nareit, HSCEI, PCOMP, STAR50, REMX, GDXJ

By Brian Freitas


Good Morning Japan |+50bp Fed Hike in the Bag, but Watching Tuesday’s US CPI Print

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS.  US recession fears dominate,  SPX -0.7%/-3.7%WoW; Nov PPI print higher vs Cons, Cements +50bp Fed hike; China stocks win WoW amid COVID loosening + Property rescue;  Tech looks supported
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash, USDJPY ¥136.56;  US asks JP to help curb China chip access; More  Boeing orders, +ve JP related;  FY23 Defense to rise by ¥1trn

Weekly Deals Digest (11 Dec) – Toshiba, Bigtincan, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, VinFast, Weilong

By Arun George


LG Energy: ESOP Lockup Release (3.5% of SO) & Contrarian Approach Targeting NPS

By Sanghyun Park

  • The ESOP’s 3.5% stake will be released on January 27. Considering the extremely tight flow situation, this is by no means small. 3.48% is 20 times the recent ADTV.
  • NPS will likely move toward a minimum stake of 6% again for LG Energy, irrespective of LG Energy’s current valuation, despite its recent selling.
  • We should consider the possibility that NPS will contrarily utilize this ESOP lockup release, and we should also design a contrarian position for this lockup release.

VinFast Auto IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), has filed for a US$1.0 billion IPO to list on Nasdaq.
  • In VinFast Auto IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
  • The key elements of the bear case are a lack of brand recognition, questionable ability to generate profits, the precarious state of financing and liability exposure to ICE vehicles.

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – A Game Changer with Solid Long-Term Logic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The peripheral vascular interventional device market in China is mainly dominated by foreign companies, but leading domestic company such as Acotec is the one to break the current market pattern.
  • With more products getting CE/FDA approval in the future, Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK) is able to enter more overseas markets. Acotec’s globalization process will diversify the revenue stream. 
  • Acotec has turned loss into profit by relying on product revenue. The Company has entered a new stage of innovation and harvest. We think Acotec has solid long term logic. 

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Central China Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Sunac China Holdings

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Sunac China Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief United States: Bitcoin Pro, Silvergate Capital and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto At The Christmas Table
  • Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+10.69%)

Crypto At The Christmas Table

By Etherbridge

  • We’ve all been there. At some point in the Christmas supper, maybe between the roast turkey and the mince pies, Aunty Hilda or Granda Joe inadvertently starts a heated debate around this “bitcoin thing.”
  • There may be a tech-savvy cousin who tries to come to the rescue and explain how blockchain works or why people value jpegs on the internet, to no avail. 
  • This year the Etherbridge team thought we would do a holiday special titled “Crypto At The Christmas Table” so you are fully prepared to handle any blockchain conversation that may arise. So let’s dive in.

Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+10.69%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 6 December we determined that a new interim downtrend low below 23.20 would likely fail and produce a 10% to 20% correction in 1-2 weeks. 
  • SI US subsequently bottomed at 21.32 and produced a 10.69% gain in the following 3 days to a high of 23.60. 
  • Note that this result was at the lower end of our expectations, however we must acknowledge a positive result. Gains were quickly given up in the following session however.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Parkway Life REIT, Wee Hur Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • REIT Watch – Healthcare S-Reits capture Japan opportunities with expanding footprint
  • Wilmar, Wee Hur and TCA chairmen add to their stakes

REIT Watch – Healthcare S-Reits capture Japan opportunities with expanding footprint

By Geoff Howie

  • Healthcare S-REITs capture Japan opportunities with expanding footprint Both ParkwayLife Reit (37.1 per cent of its asset value) and First Reit (22.8 per cent of its assets under management) have significant exposure to Japan nursing homes and healthcare-related properties through recent acquisitions.
  • First Reit now has 14 out of its 32 Asian healthcare assets in Japan nursing homes which are operated by five independent and experienced nursing home operators.

Wilmar, Wee Hur and TCA chairmen add to their stakes

By Geoff Howie

  • FOR the five trading sessions that spanned Dec 2 to 8, the Straits Times Index (STI) declined 7 per cent, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 3.7 per cent and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI slipping 1.6 per cent.
  • Overall, institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks for the five sessions ended Dec 8 with S$359 million of net outflow.
  • A married deal on Dec 5 saw Wee Hur Holdings executive chairman and managing director Goh Yeow Lian acquire one million shares at 20 cents per share, increasing his total interest from 44.41 per cent to 44.52 per cent.

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Daily Brief South Korea: LG Energy Solution and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Energy: ESOP Lockup Release (3.5% of SO) & Contrarian Approach Targeting NPS

LG Energy: ESOP Lockup Release (3.5% of SO) & Contrarian Approach Targeting NPS

By Sanghyun Park

  • The ESOP’s 3.5% stake will be released on January 27. Considering the extremely tight flow situation, this is by no means small. 3.48% is 20 times the recent ADTV.
  • NPS will likely move toward a minimum stake of 6% again for LG Energy, irrespective of LG Energy’s current valuation, despite its recent selling.
  • We should consider the possibility that NPS will contrarily utilize this ESOP lockup release, and we should also design a contrarian position for this lockup release.

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Daily Brief Japan: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Yokogawa Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • How Much Progress Has Been Made in Understanding the Concept of Shareholder Capitalism Since 1990s?
  • Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): Carbon-Neutral Industrial Park & Green Hydrogen

How Much Progress Has Been Made in Understanding the Concept of Shareholder Capitalism Since 1990s?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Looking back at the genesis of the scandals that are still recurring, the cause has always been lack of awareness of legal compliance. When cross-shareholdings were prevalent, shareholders were underestimated.
  • How widespread has the understanding of the concept of shareholder capitalism, including the cost of capital, become? The starting point is that management must comply with legal compliance.
  • The problem is that the statutory auditors had the authority to function even though independent directors didn’t exist. Diversity is important to create a board of directors that can dissent.

Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): Carbon-Neutral Industrial Park & Green Hydrogen

By Scott Foster

  • Yokogawa is diversifying with integrated controls systems for green hydrogen plants in the Netherlands and Australia and a carbon neutral industrial park in Japan.
  • Holland Hydrogen I, the YURI hydrogen project and the Goi and Soga Complex take the company beyond oil, gas and petrochemicals.
  • Based on long-term energy and environmental priorities, these projects should be immune to recession.

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