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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Doosan Bobcat Inc, Iljin Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Bobcat Placement – Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag
  • StubWorld: Iljin Holdings – Discounts On Discounts
  • Doosan Bobcat Block Deal Sale – Overhang Remains

Doosan Bobcat Placement – Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag

By Ethan Aw

  • Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS) aims to sell a US$145m block. Its recent price momentum is strong but past deals have shown mixed results. 
  • The deal doesn’t appear to be well flagged and is a relatively large one to digest, representing 20.9 days of its three month ADV.  
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.

StubWorld: Iljin Holdings – Discounts On Discounts

By David Blennerhassett

  • Iljin Holdings (015860 KS)‘s implied stub is around levels just prior to the onset of Covid, despite strong subsequent deconsolidated earnings. 50.1%-held Iljin Diamond (081000 KS) is itself heavily discounted. 
  • Preceding my comments on Iljin are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Doosan Bobcat Block Deal Sale – Overhang Remains

By Douglas Kim

  • Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS) announced a block deal sale of 5 million shares. representing 5% of outstanding shares.
  • There are three major reasons why we have a negative view of the block deal sale and on Doosan Bobcat. 
  • Two of these reasons include an overhang associated with remaining shares which could be sold as well as a potential downturn in construction markets in North America and Europe. 

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Adaro Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) – Beyond the Black Stuff

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) – Beyond the Black Stuff

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) continues to extract huge gains from increased production of coal and higher prices, hitting record levels of sales in 3Q2022 coupled with record margins. 
  • There may be some ASP impact from greater domestic market obligation in 4Q but prices remain firm and production should easily make it if not beat guidance. 
  • Adaro‘s efforts to diversify away from coal are bearing fruits with the construction of its aluminium smelter in Kalimantan already underway with Hyundai already signing an offtake MOU.  

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Singtel, Bilibili, Nanya Technology, Twitter Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC & UMC Nice Setup Opportunities, Chunghwa Rare Deep Discount
  • Singtel: Demand Surge
  • Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: TSMC Outperformed Too Much Too Soon?
  • Bilibili (9626 HK): 3Q22, Growth Accelerated, Loss Shrank, 38% Upside
  • Nanya Technology: Inventory Risk, A 10% Downside Trade Is Still Available
  • Twitter’s Banks Are Stuck With Largest Chunk Of Unsold LBO Debt
  • Is TSE Being Too Strict with the Honor Students and Too Lenient with the Underdogs?

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC & UMC Nice Setup Opportunities, Chunghwa Rare Deep Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC — Trading near parity, decent setup opportunity at the current level.
  • UMC — Trading at a discount, another decent setup opportunity.
  • Chunghwa Telecom — Rare opportunity here, trading at a steep discount compared to the tight historical range.

Singtel: Demand Surge

By Steven Holden

  • Sentiment switch for Singtel after surge in buying among Asia Ex-Japan funds
  • New positions from Fullerton Asia Focus, Jupiter Asian Fund and Fullerton Asia Growth & Income head a total of 14 funds opening exposure between 01/31/2022 and 10/31/2022.
  • Follows broader rotation in to key Singapore names despite heavy selling in Sea Ltd.

Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: TSMC Outperformed Too Much Too Soon?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Intel has eked out a small outperformance vs. TSMC most recently, and we believe there is more to come.
  • Events appear to be in Intel’s favor in the near-term.
  • TSMC has outperformed by a historically extreme amount in just three weeks.

Bilibili (9626 HK): 3Q22, Growth Accelerated, Loss Shrank, 38% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • The revenue growth rate rose for the first time in one year and a half.
  • Also, operating loss shrank for the first time in one year and a half.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 38% for year end 2023.

Nanya Technology: Inventory Risk, A 10% Downside Trade Is Still Available

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nanya Tech shares have dropped, but there’s still a 10% trading sell from these levels.
  • The company had dramatically outperformed the Taiwan market and Memory chip peers, yet is heading into weakening end-demand with inventory levels at multi-year highs.
  • We see the potential for inventory write-downs and a negative operating margin in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, opportunities for near-term good news appear limited.

Twitter’s Banks Are Stuck With Largest Chunk Of Unsold LBO Debt

By Vicki Bryan

  • Twitter’s banks are stuck with 30% of total US LBO debt unsold debt.
  • The banks already had lost more than $500 million on Twitter’s LBO debt even before the deal closed. They could sell it even at 50-60 cents on the dollar.
  • The trouble with Elon aggressively blowing up Twitter is that it’s banks probably won’t take his calls when Twitter needs more cash—which it probably will in the near future.

Is TSE Being Too Strict with the Honor Students and Too Lenient with the Underdogs?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • There are 236 companies with a trading unit of more than 500,000 yen, while there are 967 companies with a trading unit of less than 50,000 yen on the TSE.
  • It’s fair to amend the law to abolish the share unit system, but changing the law takes time. It’s also unclear why “between 50,000 yen and 500,000 yen” is appropriate.
  • While TSE still allows 300 companies that don’t meet the listing criteria to be listed on prime market, TSE requires companies with higher stock prices to increase their administrative burden.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Haier Smart Home Co Ltd, Sony Corp, Pinduoduo, China Education Group, Theme International Holdings, J Front Retailing, Swedish Match AB and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2022)
  • SONY (6758) | Regulators – Duty Calls
  • Pinduoduo: The Odd One Out
  • China Education Group (839 HK): Shining Through
  • Theme International Holdings (990 HK): Getting To Know You
  • J Front Gets into Gaming to Drive Young Customers to Buildings
  • Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Further Updates from Management
  • Philip Morris/​​Swedish Match: Squeeze-Out

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2022)

By Brian Freitas


SONY (6758) | Regulators – Duty Calls

By Mark Chadwick

  • The next six months will be critical for the future of the global gaming industry as Regulators carry out further investigations into the Microsoft acquisition of Activision
  • This is particularly important for SONY, where games account for around one third of consolidated revenue and profits
  • This is a battle for the future of subscription services and cloud streaming – Call of Duty yields unprecedented power over the industry. Regulators need to do their Duty. 

Pinduoduo: The Odd One Out

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s 3Q22 mirrored its strong previous quarter with revenue of RMB 35.5bn (consensus: RMB 30.8bn) and OP of RMB 10.4bn (consensus: RMB 6.7bn).
  • CCP’s anti-monopoly drive and common prosperity measures are helping Pinduoduo to outperform the competition.
  • Nonetheless, we refrain from being outright positive on any of the Chinese e-commerce names with the economy heading into a slowdown and the lowest sector-multiple at above 12x FY+1 OP.

China Education Group (839 HK): Shining Through

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Education Group (839 HK)‘s 27.8% growth in net profit affirmed its solid fundamentals and minimal exposure to regulatory risks. We also welcome its resumption of dividends.
  • Management expects profitability will be driven by the 48% new student enrollment growth, potential for tuition increase and global education segment recovery. Consensus forecasts are currently too conservative.
  • Weaker 2H FY22 profit is due to higher depreciation and finance costs but will be absorbed with higher enrollment. Capex will be light and we also like its deleveraging move. 

Theme International Holdings (990 HK): Getting To Know You

By David Blennerhassett

  • Commodities trader Theme International Holdings (990 HK) is up 670% since the inset of Covid, and that is after declining 52% from the July 2021 peak.
  • A sharp increase in iron ore prices since 2020 resulted in FY21 net income of HK$1bn against HK$146mn in FY19. Net cash is currently HK$4.2bn, 38% of Theme’s market cap. 
  • You Zhenhua is Theme’s largest shareholder. Theme recently acquired a 6.6% stake in You Zhenhua-controlled Esteel, which in turn holds a 61% stake in BRC Asia Ltd (BRC SP)

J Front Gets into Gaming to Drive Young Customers to Buildings

By Michael Causton

  • J Front has acquired a stake in an e-sports management business and will use this to target younger people, drawing them into its buildings through themed events.
  • Event marketing has become a key weapon for department stores and shopping buildings and should help bring in more young people.
  • J Front is also using technology to bring in more HNWIs – where the real profits lie.

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Further Updates from Management

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK) revealed that domestic sales are performing well in the “Double-11” festival and overseas sales have outperformed peers in Black Friday.
  • The high-end brand Casarte has maintained good market shares in refrigerators, drum washing machines and air-conditioners. Overseas market also saw positive upgrade demand. 
  • Its digitalisation strategy has enhanced customers’ shopping experience and increased repurchases. HSH has also achieved improvements in overall efficiency through such efforts.

Philip Morris/​​Swedish Match: Squeeze-Out

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • At the end of the further extended acceptance period, PMHH owns 93.11% of the shares of Swedish Match (obtained both through shares tendered and market purchases).
  • PMHH intends to initiate compulsory redemption under the Swedish Companies Act to acquire all remaining shares in Swedish Match and request delisting from Nasdaq Stockholm. PMI wins again.
  • Although the shares are still liquid, gross spread is 2 bps, and therefore there is no trade worth considering, in my view.

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Daily Brief Financials: Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Sunshine Insurance, SBI Holdings, Home First Finance, Kawasan Industri Jababeka and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Buy Entry Met
  • Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Nov 2022
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case
  • Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) IPO – Index Inclusion Timeline
  • Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | Bounce Rate and Sales Pressure
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO – Needs to Correct by Only 50%
  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka

HSCEI Buy Entry Met

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our call has centered around buying a dip in HK at HSCEI 5,800 and HSI 17,000 for a final upside drive into December to form at top.
  • H shares (our long vehicle) – Met 5,800 long entry. 6,030 is the level to clear and hold above. PT at 6,600 just under the 6,700 MT barrier.
  • Macro trend remains down. HSI 19,400 represents an excellent short opportunity for Q1 weakness. December is touted to be a topping/ range ahead of a more bearish Q1.

Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO.
  • SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&H) and property and casualty (P&C) insurance in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Nov 2022

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
  • Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-November 2022.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK), a Chinese life and P&C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
  • In Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on Sunshine Life’s VNB margin decline and agent channel pressure; Sunshine P&C’s regulatory pressure on premiums and the group’s declining investment yield.

Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) IPO – Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK) is looking to raise between US$859m-US$950m by selling 1.15bn shares in its IPO. At the top end, the company will be valued at HK$74bn.
  • All of the pre-IPO shares are Domestic Shares and there appear to be no immediate plans to convert them to H-shares. The only H-shares will be the IPO shares.
  • MSCI China inclusion requires a higher stock price or conversion of Domestic Shares to H-shares; FTSE inclusion is likely in June; HSCI and Stock Connect inclusion is expected in March.

Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | Bounce Rate and Sales Pressure

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We interact with Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN)  branch managers to understand the reason behind the increase in bounce rates.
  • The overall NACH data also shows a high rejection rate in October despite being a festive month, which is surprising.
  • With 92% of Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) loans being disbursed in less than 48 hours, this focus on TAT could lead to higher than industry-average asset quality issues. 

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO – Needs to Correct by Only 50%

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, aims to raise around US$950m in its HK IPO.
  • SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&H) and property and casualty (P&C) insurance in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief South Korea: Doosan Bobcat Inc, Iljin Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Bobcat Placement – Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag
  • StubWorld: Iljin Holdings – Discounts On Discounts

Doosan Bobcat Placement – Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag

By Ethan Aw

  • Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS) aims to sell a US$145m block. Its recent price momentum is strong but past deals have shown mixed results. 
  • The deal doesn’t appear to be well flagged and is a relatively large one to digest, representing 20.9 days of its three month ADV.  
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.

StubWorld: Iljin Holdings – Discounts On Discounts

By David Blennerhassett

  • Iljin Holdings (015860 KS)‘s implied stub is around levels just prior to the onset of Covid, despite strong subsequent deconsolidated earnings. 50.1%-held Iljin Diamond (081000 KS) is itself heavily discounted. 
  • Preceding my comments on Iljin are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Adaro Energy, Kawasan Industri Jababeka and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) – Beyond the Black Stuff
  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) – Beyond the Black Stuff

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) continues to extract huge gains from increased production of coal and higher prices, hitting record levels of sales in 3Q2022 coupled with record margins. 
  • There may be some ASP impact from greater domestic market obligation in 4Q but prices remain firm and production should easily make it if not beat guidance. 
  • Adaro‘s efforts to diversify away from coal are bearing fruits with the construction of its aluminium smelter in Kalimantan already underway with Hyundai already signing an offtake MOU.  

Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Singapore: Singtel and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Singtel: Demand Surge

Singtel: Demand Surge

By Steven Holden

  • Sentiment switch for Singtel after surge in buying among Asia Ex-Japan funds
  • New positions from Fullerton Asia Focus, Jupiter Asian Fund and Fullerton Asia Growth & Income head a total of 14 funds opening exposure between 01/31/2022 and 10/31/2022.
  • Follows broader rotation in to key Singapore names despite heavy selling in Sea Ltd.

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Daily Brief United States: Doosan Bobcat Inc, iShares Russell 2000 ETF, Becton Dickinson and Co, Twitter Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Bobcat Block Deal Sale – Overhang Remains
  • Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.
  • Becton Dickinson and Co (BDX US): EO Ruling Is Positive; Strong Base Business to Drive Growth Ahead
  • Twitter’s Banks Are Stuck With Largest Chunk Of Unsold LBO Debt

Doosan Bobcat Block Deal Sale – Overhang Remains

By Douglas Kim

  • Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS) announced a block deal sale of 5 million shares. representing 5% of outstanding shares.
  • There are three major reasons why we have a negative view of the block deal sale and on Doosan Bobcat. 
  • Two of these reasons include an overhang associated with remaining shares which could be sold as well as a potential downturn in construction markets in North America and Europe. 

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

By Joe Jasper

  • Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
  • We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
  • We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.

Becton Dickinson and Co (BDX US): EO Ruling Is Positive; Strong Base Business to Drive Growth Ahead

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ruling on Ethylene Oxide in favor of Sotera is a positive for all the medical devices companies including Becton Dickinson and Co (BDX US), who have EO sterilization facilities.  
  • In FY22, BD reported strong base business, which grew 6.9% y/y on reported basis. On currency-neutral basis, base business increased 9.4% y/y in FY22, accelerated from 8.1% in FY21.
  • FY22 marks 51st consecutive year of dividend increase for BD, which makes it one of the leading dividend yield stocks. Currently, the stock has a dividend yield of 1.53%.

Twitter’s Banks Are Stuck With Largest Chunk Of Unsold LBO Debt

By Vicki Bryan

  • Twitter’s banks are stuck with 30% of total US LBO debt unsold debt.
  • The banks already had lost more than $500 million on Twitter’s LBO debt even before the deal closed. They could sell it even at 50-60 cents on the dollar.
  • The trouble with Elon aggressively blowing up Twitter is that it’s banks probably won’t take his calls when Twitter needs more cash—which it probably will in the near future.

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Daily Brief India: Home First Finance and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | Bounce Rate and Sales Pressure

Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | Bounce Rate and Sales Pressure

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We interact with Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN)  branch managers to understand the reason behind the increase in bounce rates.
  • The overall NACH data also shows a high rejection rate in October despite being a festive month, which is surprising.
  • With 92% of Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) loans being disbursed in less than 48 hours, this focus on TAT could lead to higher than industry-average asset quality issues. 

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