Smartkarma Daily Briefs

XPeng Inc. has predicted that revenue and vehicle deliveries will nosedive in the current quarter after the Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) upstart reported slowing sales growth and a loss that nearly doubled in 2022.
The company’s revenue will likely plunge 43.7% to 46.3% year-on-year to between 4 billion yuan ($581 million) and 4.2 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2023.
The outlook is based on an estimate that its deliveries will plummet 45% to 47.9% year-on-year in the same quarter to around 18,000 to 19,000 vehicles.

China Huarong Expects to Post $4 Billion Loss for 2022

China Huarong Asset Management Co. Ltd. expects to post a net loss of 27.6 billion yuan ($4 billion) for 2022.
Citing factors including volatility in the capital markets leading to declines in the value of some assets, business transition and the real estate industry slump.
The bad-debt manager said it adjusted its business structure last year, resulting in less nonperforming asset acquisition and restructuring and less revenue.

Samantha Thavasa Attempts Rebirth but Losses Continue

By Michael Causton

Once a major hit with young women, Samantha Thavasa has struggled to find relevance in the past five years.
Despite an injection of capital and management from new parent, Konaka, the business has continued to close stores.
While Konaka is restructuring the business, the brand’s low levels of recognition with the younger generation will likely mean further retreat.

Taiwan Short Squeeze Ahead? Taiwan Market Significantly Lagging Philly SOX Index

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

There’s been a major disconnect between performance of the Philly Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan market recently.
Semi optimism has picked up substantially in U.S. markets and institutional favor towards the Taiwan market could improve as a result.
We indentify US$1bn+ market cap stocks most under-held by institutions, as well as those who may be most at risk of a short squeeze.

UOB: Better Relative Value

By BOS Research

4Q22 results release on 23rd February 2023.
Expect NIM expansion of ~20bps quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) for 4Q22E, while FY23’s NIM guidance and updates on its Citi consumer business integration would be of focus.
Citi acquisition to add to full year NIMs and growth prospects from FY23, despite potential uptick in asset quality risks, which should be manageable.

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 2022 Results- Say Goodbye to High Growth and Get Used to True Colors

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

If WuXi Chemistry’s performance shows downward trend, the overall performance growth won’t be satisfactory. The negative growth of WuXi DDSU means that ineffective competition for domestic innovative drugs is decreasing.
The asset structure is shifting from light asset to heavy asset.It’s particularly crucial whether business model of “one-stop end-to-end service+royalty income” can enable WuXi AppTec to explore new growth points.
The current sentiment on CXO is “fragile” because CXO doesn’t have performance sustainability and stability, with “risk discount” problem. Its valuation haven’t reached inflection point. Without industry beta,alpha is useless.

China Clears First Homegrown MRNA Covid Vaccine

China approved its first homegrown Covid-19 vaccine using the advanced mRNA technology, months after the country pivoted from its “zero-Covid” strategy toward living with the virus.
The vaccine, developed by CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd., was approved for emergency use by the National Medical Products Administration.
The shot, known as SYS6006, primarily targets the omicron variant BA.5 and can be stored at 2 to 8 degrees Celsius (36 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit) “for a long time,”.

[Tencent (700 HK) Target Price Change]: Recovery Aided by Strong Advertising & In Line Game

By Shawn Yang

Tencent reported 4Q22 top line/ bottom line of 0.3%/(3.7%) vs cons. Online ads is stronger, while gaming and G&A slightly missed our est.
We expect that ads will be the main driver, thanks to video accounts. Gaming will have better performance after more approved game codes.
We raise 2023 ads growth from 12% YoY to 15% YoY. Raise TP to HK$ 433. Maintain Tencent as one of the top picks in China Internet

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Mar 24

Daily Brief Macro: Smartkarma Webinar | Money Growth Leads to Inflation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Smartkarma Webinar | Money Growth Leads to Inflation
BoE: Staying the Course
An Evidence-Based Framework to Determine if This Is a Systemic Banking Crisis
CX Daily: Why a Sperm Bank Drive Is Fueling Fears of Infertility in China

Smartkarma Webinar | Money Growth Leads to Inflation

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar Wednesdays, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Andreas Steno as he gives us a detailed tour around forward looking inflation indicators for all major economies.

From touchpoints like how money growth is outright negative in the West, to trends being opposite in China/Japan, join us as we dive deeper into the topic with Andreas and Smartkarma’s Co-founder, Raghav Kapoor.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 5 April 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Register for the Webinar here

Andreas Steno is the founder and Head of Research of the European Power Research house “Steno Research.” Building on years of experience as Global Chief Strategist at Nordea Bank, he is one of the most quoted and sought-after macro analysts out there. Andreas’ expertise is the macro strategy, energy, real estate and equity spaces, but doesn’t shy away from hot takes on other topics if the underlying analysis is strong enough. Andreas anchors the weekly editorial ‘Steno Signals’ and other watch series from Steno Research.

BoE: Staying the Course

By Phil Rush

The BoE hiked by 25bps in Mar-23, with only two dovish dissenters, in line with our forecast yet contrary to many excessively dovish cautious calls.
Underlying inflationary pressures are excessively high, especially in our forecast, and reinforced by recent data. Second-round effects demand frontloaded tightening.
We maintain our call for another 25bp rate hike in May. Markets underappreciate the likelihood of that but should progressively price it in again, as with Feb and Mar hikes.

An Evidence-Based Framework to Determine if This Is a Systemic Banking Crisis

By Jeroen Blokland

Laeven and Valencia (2012, 2018, 2020) provide an empirically sound framework to determine if a banking crisis should be defined systemic.
The first condition of a systemic banking crisis – significant signs of financial distress in the banking system – has been met.
The second condition of a systemic banking crisis – significant banking policy intervention – has not been met, including the impressive intervention of the SNB in the Swiss banking system.

CX Daily: Why a Sperm Bank Drive Is Fueling Fears of Infertility in China

Sperm / In Depth: Why a sperm bank drive is fueling fears of infertility in China
Imprisonment / Chinese man exonerated after record 29 years of wrongful imprisonment
Covid-19 / China clears first homegrown mRNA Covid vaccine

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Mar 24

Most Read: Toshiba Corp, Rakuten Bank, Rakuten, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, Samsung Sds, Page Industries, Em Tech Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Toshiba Board to Shareholders: “Yes, Meh But We Did Our Job, Now It’s Up To You (We’re Tired Too)”
Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Another Net-Bank IPO, This One With TOPIX and Other Index Inclusions
Toshiba – The End… Hopefully
Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) IPO: Listing in April, TPX Inclusion in May, MSCI SC in August
Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP’s JPY4,620 Tender Offer, Now for the Really Hard Part
Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN) Offer for Sale: Buy Ahead of Potential MSCI Inclusion
KOSPI 200 Flow Trading: Those Subject to a Significant Float Rate Change
NIFTY NEXT50 / NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes
KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: EM-Tech (091120 KS) To Replace SBW Life (151910 KS)
Rakuten Bank IPO – Recent Filings Updates and Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Toshiba Board to Shareholders: “Yes, Meh But We Did Our Job, Now It’s Up To You (We’re Tired Too)”

By Travis Lundy

Just post-close, the Nikkei reported Toshiba’s Board had agreed a JIP deal at “around ¥2trln.” Toshiba confirmed HOURS later indicating language was still being hashed out. And the dividend cancelled.
Toshiba “supports” the deal because it aligns a single shareholder with management goals. They cannot recommend to general shareholders because it is too low. But JIP was the only bidder.
It raises the question of whether activists will submit to “Toshiba Fatigue” at what the Board admits is too low a price, or whether there is still fight left.

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Another Net-Bank IPO, This One With TOPIX and Other Index Inclusions

By Travis Lundy

Today, Rakuten (4755 JP) and Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) announced that Rakuten Bank had received TSE approval to list (English) on TSE Prime, with expected listing date 21 April 2023.
This had been in the works since July 2022, and they selected advisors in September 2022. The low end of the offer price range seems attractive. More diligence needed.
There will be index inclusions. Unlike SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) which is going to TSE Standard, Rakuten Bank is going to Prime.

Toshiba – The End… Hopefully

By Mio Kato

The Nikkei reported today that Toshiba’s board had chosen to accept JIP’s buyout offer.
The purported pricing of ¥2trn is a relatively modest premium but is not a surprise and no surprise is a positive here in our view.
All that remains is shareholder approval and while we doubt there will be too many celebrations on that front, there is likely to be relief.

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) IPO: Listing in April, TPX Inclusion in May, MSCI SC in August

Rakuten Bank (EBANKZ JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 21 April.
News reports indicate a raise of US$800mn (JPY 106.8bn) at the mid-point of the IPO range, valuing the company at JPY 305bn (US$2.3bn).
The stock should be added to the TPX INDEX at the close on 30 May where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP’s JPY4,620 Tender Offer, Now for the Really Hard Part

By Arun George

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder at JPY4,620 per share, a 9.7% premium to the last close price.
The special committee opines that the offer is the best price that can be expected today, which sounds like we are recommending the offer as it is the only one.
The offer has several negatives: a 14% price reduction during the process, below the undisturbed price, below the mid-point IFA DCF range and no serious effort on Plan B.

Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN) Offer for Sale: Buy Ahead of Potential MSCI Inclusion

The Government of India is looking to sell up to 3.5% of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL) to meet the minimum public shareholding and will raise US$350m at the floor price.
Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN) is a potential inclusion to the MSCI India Index at the May QCIR and there will be buyers at the placement.
Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN) trades cheaper than its peers and there could be a move higher over the next few weeks.

KOSPI 200 Flow Trading: Those Subject to a Significant Float Rate Change

By Sanghyun Park

Samsung SDS and Meritz Financial will welcome a 6%p and 30%p increase, respectively, in the upcoming rebalancing in June.
Assuming a K200 tracking fund size of 65 trillion won, they are expected to receive 2.69x and 5.47x ADTVs, respectively. This is enough for us to consider a preemptive position.
However, in the case of Samsung SDS, we need to consider potential price correction by the scheduled block deal (1.95%) and develop a multi-phased approach to minimize timing conflicts.

NIFTY NEXT50 / NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes

On 17 February, NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). There are 5 adds and 5 deletes.
Last evening, NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from 15% earlier).
This changes the flows at the March rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 March.

KOSDAQ150 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: EM-Tech (091120 KS) To Replace SBW Life (151910 KS)

Following Nanos Co Ltd (151910 KS)‘s designation as an Investment Attention Issue, the stock will be deleted from the KOSDAQ150 Index and replaced with Em Tech Co Ltd (091120 KS).
Passive trackers are estimated to buy 1.3 days of ADV on Em Tech Co (091120 KS) while they will need to sell 1.1 days of ADV on Nanos (151910 KS).
Em Tech Co Ltd (091120 KS) was up yesterday but the stock is still way off its highs. The stock should trade higher over the next few days.

Rakuten Bank IPO – Recent Filings Updates and Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$900m in its Japan listing in April 2023.
RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.

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Mar 23

Daily Brief Consumer: Rakuten, ASICS Corp, Poya International, Byc Co Ltd, Telenet Group Holding NV, Tencent Music, Renault SA, Health And Happiness (H&H), Accor SA, Leapmotor and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) IPO: Listing in April, TPX Inclusion in May, MSCI SC in August
ASICS (7936) | Running Is Recession Proof
Poya International: Key Catalysts
Korea Small Cap Gem #20: BYC
Liberty/Telenet: Intended Offer for Minorities
TME: Social Entertainment Losing Its Importance with Top Line Growth Keep Declining
Renault Group: Entering a New Era with a Strong Financial Outlook
H&H International – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
Europe HY Trade Book – March 2023 – Lucror Analytics
Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – A Precursor to a Larger Release Later in the Year

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) IPO: Listing in April, TPX Inclusion in May, MSCI SC in August

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Rakuten Bank (EBANKZ JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 21 April.
News reports indicate a raise of US$800mn (JPY 106.8bn) at the mid-point of the IPO range, valuing the company at JPY 305bn (US$2.3bn).
The stock should be added to the TPX INDEX at the close on 30 May where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.

ASICS (7936) | Running Is Recession Proof

By Mark Chadwick

Good news from Nike’s Q3 report, which bodes well for Asics March quarter
Why was Nike’s stock down? Margins were down 330bps on inventory mark downs
Running is recession proof according to the footwear makers themselves

Poya International: Key Catalysts

By Douglas Kim

Three major catalysts of Poya International include easing of mask mandates/COVID restrictions, strong growth in dividends and earnings, and market share gains from competitors.
Poya International is the dominant supplier of cosmetics, health care products, personal care products and household products in Taiwan.
The company continues to execute its business strategy better than its competitors and this is evidenced in its strong growth in profits and dividends in the past year.

Korea Small Cap Gem #20: BYC

By Douglas Kim

Byc Co Ltd (001460 KS) is the 20th company in our Korea Small Cap Gems series.
Estimated value of BYC’s real estate is more than 2 trillion won, which is much higher than its current market cap of 302 billion won.
A large local fund called Truston has been going activist on BYC for more than a year. Plus, BYC’s Chairman Han is being sued by his mum for inheritance recovery.

Liberty/Telenet: Intended Offer for Minorities

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liberty intends to launch an offer to acquire the minorities in its subsidiary Telenet, taking advantage of the drop in the share price over the last two years.
Liberty offers €22/share in cash, cum dividend, 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA, a minimum 95% threshold and no MAC with respect to BEL-20 index and shares of Telenet peers prior results announcement.
My fair value estimate (DCF based) is €16.2, i.e. 26% downside to the intended offer price. Spread is 5.2%/15.6% (gross/annualised). Cautious long.

TME: Social Entertainment Losing Its Importance with Top Line Growth Keep Declining

Tencent Music (TME US) reported 4Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue decreased 2.4% YoY to RMB7.4bn (vs consensus RMB7.3bn) while reported operating profit more than doubled to RMB1.4bn (vs consensus RMB1.3bn).
Online music revenues grew 24% YoY while social entertainment business continues to see decline in paying users and ARPU. Margin improvements were driven by spending cuts.
Social Entertainment is losing its importance and the segment continues to remain under pressure due to competition from other platforms.

Renault Group: Entering a New Era with a Strong Financial Outlook

By Alexis Dwek

Renault finished 2022 with a record high year, a testimony of the “Renaulution” phase successfully being completed
The Company enters its strategy’s second phase: “Renovation”; the aim is to now grow with a focus on high quality vehicles
Equity story: sales, margins, earnings, and free cash flow improvement. 2022 was a turning point, the start of a new dynamic, a new mindset and enthusiasm for Renault

H&H International – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

H&H International has released reasonable FY 2022 results, despite the challenging macro economy and operating conditions during the year. Revenue rose more than 10% y-o-y to c. CNY 12.8 bn, mainly due to the full-year inclusion of Zesty Paws in the US. The gross profit margin contracted 2.5 ppts to 60.3%. Debt/EBITDA remained elevated at 5.7x as at FYE 2022. Liquidity is sound, with a cash balance of over CNY 2 bn and short-term debt of only CNY 1 bn.

The company aims to reduce net leverage to below 2.0x within three years. In our view, this plan is aggressive albeit attainable.

Europe HY Trade Book – March 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Europe HY Trade Book for March 2023 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

Leapmotor IPO Lock-Up – A Precursor to a Larger Release Later in the Year

Leapmotor (9863 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO, after pricing at the low-end. The stock was listed on 29th Sep 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.
LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Mar 23

Daily Brief Financials: Rakuten Bank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, PNB Housing Finance Ltd, Wharf Real Estate Investment, Uni-Asia Group, Nikkei 225, Agile Property Holdings, Heliad Equity Partners Gmbh, Coinshares International and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Another Net-Bank IPO, This One With TOPIX and Other Index Inclusions
Japan Banks: Markets Overreact to SVB’s Collapse
PNB Housing Finance Rights Issue – Finally Closing in on the Capital Raising
Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) – Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend
Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Uni-Asia: Creating Alternative Investment Opportunities in Asia
SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan
Morning Views Asia:
Heliad Equity Partners – Enpal and Razor closing new funding rounds
CoinShares International – En troligen fördelaktig överlevare av “kryptovintern”

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Another Net-Bank IPO, This One With TOPIX and Other Index Inclusions

By Travis Lundy

Today, Rakuten (4755 JP) and Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) announced that Rakuten Bank had received TSE approval to list (English) on TSE Prime, with expected listing date 21 April 2023.
This had been in the works since July 2022, and they selected advisors in September 2022. The low end of the offer price range seems attractive. More diligence needed.
There will be index inclusions. Unlike SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) which is going to TSE Standard, Rakuten Bank is going to Prime.

Japan Banks: Markets Overreact to SVB’s Collapse

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Following the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank last week, Japan’s big four banks have fallen by around 15% due to their exposure to US government bonds.
However, the Japanese banks have managed the interest rate risk far better than the collapsed US banks and therefore, we feel the price drop is unwarranted.
With Japan likely to scrap its zero rates policy, we think this could be a rather intriguing opportunity to make generous gains on the long side in Japan’s banking sector.

PNB Housing Finance Rights Issue – Finally Closing in on the Capital Raising

PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN) (PHBHF) aims to raise up to US$300m via a rights issue in order to boost its capital base.
PNBHF is the housing finance arm of Punjab National Bank and is partly owned by Carlyle, with investments from General Atlantic as well.
In this note, we will talk about the rights issue and other deal dynamics.

Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) – Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend

By David Coloretti, CMT

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The 2018/2020 downtrend was broken in December 2022. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction and opportunity to enter the uptrend at improved entry levels.
March has the potential to complete a bullish monthly reversal pattern upon a month end close above 44.89 and confirm a likely multi-month 12% uptrend towards 50.67.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Uni-Asia: Creating Alternative Investment Opportunities in Asia

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, in partnership with the SGX, we are glad to welcome Uni-Asia’s Group CFO, Lim Kai Ching.

In the upcoming webinar, Kai Ching will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Osbert Tang, CFA . The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 4 April 2023, 17:00 SGT.

Register for the Webinar here

About Uni-Asia

Uni-Asia Group Limited is an alternative investment group specialising in creating alternative investment opportunities and providing integrated services relating to such investments. The Group’s alternative investment targets mainly include dry bulk ships and properties. The Group also has extensive know-how and a network relating to such alternative investments and provides services relating to these investments. The two main alternative asset classes the Group focuses on are Shipping and Property.

SGX Nikkei 225 Climate PAB Futures: A Cleaner Way to Invest in Japan

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

SGX has launched futures on the Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index. The index is based on the Nikkei225 and uses screens to remove stocks that do not meet certain criteria.
The Nikkei Climate 1.5°C Target Index has a high degree of overlap and correlation and low tracking error with the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX).
With increased interest in Climate/ESG investing, market participants can use the SGX-listed futures to get the same risk/reward characteristics as the Nikkei225 with atleast 50% lower Greenhouse Gas emission intensity.

Morning Views Asia:

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Heliad Equity Partners – Enpal and Razor closing new funding rounds

By Edison Investment Research

Heliad Equity Partners (HEP) reported a 3.6% decrease in net asset value (NAV) over the four-month period ending January 2023, bringing the NAV decrease since end 2021 to 45.4%. flatexDEGIRO (FTK) was the main valuation driver and remains HEP’s largest asset (38% of the portfolio). Meanwhile, HEP’s private portfolio saw successful funding rounds at Enpal and Razor Group in recent months. HEP recently issued 1.6m new shares, raising €7m in new capital to facilitate further investments. Given that the share issue was carried out at a 43.6% discount to end-January 2023 NAV, we calculate that it will result in a c 5% NAV per share dilution.

CoinShares International – En troligen fördelaktig överlevare av “kryptovintern”

By Edison Investment Research

CoinShares International (CS) rapporterade en måttlig EBITDA-förlust på 6,5 miljoner GBP för FY22 (jämfört med en vinst på 121,1 miljoner GBP för FY21), som påverkades av “kryptovintern” (som följer på överflödet 2021), vilket kännetecknades av sjunkande tillgångspriser och högprofilerade konkurser. Oron förra året (framför allt kollapsen av FTX-börsen) ledde till att CS avvecklade sin spirande B2C-verksamhet och intog en mer försiktig hållning i sin division för infrastruktur för kapitalmarknader (CSCM). Trots detta är balansräkningen fortfarande sund med ett totalt eget kapital på 204,0 miljoner GBP i slutet av 2022 (jämfört med 200,9 miljoner GBP i slutet av 2021).

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Mar 23

Daily Brief Singapore: Uni-Asia Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Uni-Asia: Creating Alternative Investment Opportunities in Asia

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Uni-Asia: Creating Alternative Investment Opportunities in Asia

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, in partnership with the SGX, we are glad to welcome Uni-Asia’s Group CFO, Lim Kai Ching.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 4 April 2023, 17:00 SGT.

Register for the Webinar here

About Uni-Asia

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Mar 23

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Kuaishou Technology, Wharf Real Estate Investment, Kingsoft Corp, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, Jiangnan, Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd, Tencent Music and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Tencent 331 Support Pressure
Kuaishou (1024 HK) 4Q22 Earnings Preview: Weak Growth, But Loss to Shrink Significantly
Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) – Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend
StubWorld: Impairments Weigh Down Kingsoft Solid Results
Tencent (700 HK): 4Q22, Stop Decreasing WeChat Ad Recovered Earlier
CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): Double-Digit Sales and Profit Growth in 2022; MRNA Vaccine Approval
Tencent: Gradual Recovery in Earnings; Domestic Gaming to Resume Growth
Jiangnan Group (1366 HK): Irrevocable from the Shareholder with a Blocking Stake
Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities’ Growth
TME: Social Entertainment Losing Its Importance with Top Line Growth Keep Declining

Tencent 331 Support Pressure

By Thomas Schroeder

Our Tencent sell from 385 has formed a flat range with a bias to pressure the 331 pivot support to reach our 300-305 buy (cover) target.
The descending wedge or channel is the dominant chart pattern that will drive the medium term trend. Global and HK bear pressure will influence Tencent near term.
From the 300 support zone we see a better macro set up that will see the bull wedge mature and break higher once summer turbulence subsides.

Kuaishou (1024 HK) 4Q22 Earnings Preview: Weak Growth, But Loss to Shrink Significantly

By Ming Lu

We believe both 4Q22 and 1Q23 can be weak quarters.
However, we believe operating losses will shrink significantly in 4Q22 and 2023.
We believe the stock has an upside of 77% for year end 2023.

Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) – Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend

By David Coloretti, CMT

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The 2018/2020 downtrend was broken in December 2022. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction and opportunity to enter the uptrend at improved entry levels.
March has the potential to complete a bullish monthly reversal pattern upon a month end close above 44.89 and confirm a likely multi-month 12% uptrend towards 50.67.

StubWorld: Impairments Weigh Down Kingsoft Solid Results

By David Blennerhassett

Despite the topline growth of 20%, Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) recorded a loss in FY22 after a large impairment for its holding in Kingsoft Cloud (KC US).
Preceding my comments on Kingsoft are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Tencent (700 HK): 4Q22, Stop Decreasing WeChat Ad Recovered Earlier

By Ming Lu

As we expected in the preview, total revenue stopped decreasing in 4Q22.
WeChat advertising recovered in 4Q22 earlier than we expected in the preview.
We believe game-related revenues will grow by 8% in 2023 and 19% in 2024.

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): Double-Digit Sales and Profit Growth in 2022; MRNA Vaccine Approval

By Tina Banerjee

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) reported 11% YoY revenue growth in 2022. The finished drug business maintained steady growth in 2022, with a continued increase in contribution from new products.
Within the next 5 years, more than 40 innovative drugs are expected to be approved, which will provide continuous momentum for the company’s development.
In March 2023, CSPC’s COVID-19 mRNA vaccine SYS6006 has become the first independently developed mRNA vaccine product in China that has been granted for emergency use.

Tencent: Gradual Recovery in Earnings; Domestic Gaming to Resume Growth

Tencent (700 HK) reported 4Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue increased 0.5% YoY to RMB145bn (vs consensus RMB)143.5bn while adjusted OP increased 30.1% YoY to RMB28.4bn (vs consensus RMB37.2bn).
Online advertising revenues saw a 14.8% YoY increase during 4Q2022 after 4-consecutive quarters of decline with January and February showing sustained recovery.
Though Domestic gaming revenues declined in 4Q2022, with new gaming licenses and international expansion, we expect gaming revenues to start growing from 1Q2023.

Jiangnan Group (1366 HK): Irrevocable from the Shareholder with a Blocking Stake

By Arun George

The shareholder with a blocking stake has provided an irrevocable to accept Mr Chu Hui (Chairman and CEO)’s offer to privatise Jiangnan (1366 HK) at HK$0.40 per share
Key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). There are no other shareholders with a blocking stake.
The price is final and attractive in the context of historical prices and multiples. At the last close, the gross spread is 8.1%. Scheme document likely despatched in mid-April.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities’ Growth

By Osbert Tang, CFA

While adjusted net profit of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK) plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.
Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.
Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength.

TME: Social Entertainment Losing Its Importance with Top Line Growth Keep Declining

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent Music (TME US) reported 4Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue decreased 2.4% YoY to RMB7.4bn (vs consensus RMB7.3bn) while reported operating profit more than doubled to RMB1.4bn (vs consensus RMB1.3bn).
Online music revenues grew 24% YoY while social entertainment business continues to see decline in paying users and ARPU. Margin improvements were driven by spending cuts.
Social Entertainment is losing its importance and the segment continues to remain under pressure due to competition from other platforms.

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Mar 23

Daily Brief Australia: National Storage REIT, Carly Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

National Storage REIT Placement – Past Deals Have Done Well but Stock Looks Toppish
Carly Holdings Limited – Finance Facility Quadruples Potential Fleet Size

National Storage REIT Placement – Past Deals Have Done Well but Stock Looks Toppish