Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Last Friday most of the way through the afternoon session, media reports ran a story saying SBI Holdings (8473 JP) had applied for a Bank Holding Company authorisation. 
• That is a filing with the FSA one makes when one wants to acquire >50% of voting rights in an entity with a Banking license. Shares popped, and fell back. 
• They probably didn’t pop enough. There is a BIG sell flow coming, but the timing is giri-giri on eventiness, and confident traders could take the whole trade.

• Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
• Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
• We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

• Japan is one of the first markets we like nibbling into for an October bounce sequence. Lower 25,000 range support is our buy/build zone in early October.
• Closed our NKY 28,350 below 26k last week and transitioning to a long to build on weakness near 25,500 and a rally objective at 27,000.
• RSI is nearing a key cycle low where good rally cycle begins. Buy sell volume battle noted late last week.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• CIFI Holdings
• Fosun International
• Softbank Group

• Historically, when Swire (B) (87 HK) / Swire (A) (19 HK) gets more than 6% from 3mo Avg VWAP Ratio, there is statistically significant reversion. We are now at 6.8%. 
• The SATS (SATS SP)  / WFS transaction appears all stitched up with major shareholder Temasek backing the deal. The acquisition is expected to close in 1Q23, subject to regulatory clearance.   
• We had the heads up days (or a week plus) ago, and now it is official. Bain has now launched its Tender Offer for Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) at ¥2,181/share.

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
• These insights may also flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK), Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK), and Techtronic Industries (669 HK).

• There are 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
• Three new deals were discussed this week: Boyu’s Offer for Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK);  Chinachems’s Offer for Pine Care (1989 HK), & Accenture Japan bid for ALBERT (3906 JP).
• Key updates took place for Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) and MACA Ltd (MLD AU) .

• SPX bearish to 3,500/30 below 3,650 with sell resistance at 3,650 (bounce bet failed at 3,740). Early October low followed by a short squeeze.
• Meeting/Exceeding key downside targets in oversold (RSI’s due to bottom soon) Asia and Europe into an exhaustive down leg. 
• October transition: We favor overlapping our long basket into early to mid-October new lows. NKY, ASX, RTY layered longs and USD sell is on deck (USD front run).

• Woori is the fastest growing major bank in Korea, not positive into a downturn
• Credit metrics look poor in granular data on loans and in credit costs
• Capital levels are relatively low, while funding mix is worsening