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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Financials: Seazen (Formerly Future Land) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, China SCE, Lenovo, O-Net Technologies (Group)

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, China SCE, Lenovo, O-Net Technologies (Group)

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Sembcorp Marine, Advantest Corp, Fujitec Co Ltd, Toshiba Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value
  • Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound
  • Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) – Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina
  • Toshiba Bear Targets

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

By Arun George

  • The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shares will be credited to Keppel Corp (KEP SP)‘s shareholders on 1 March.   
  • While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. 
  • New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.

Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound

By Scott Foster

  • Advantest’s share price has risen by 21.5% since the beginning of January, but sales and profits are peaking and YoY comparisons are becoming increasingly difficult.
  • Competitor Teradyne’s results and guidance give an indication of potential near-term risk, which could be more than 20%. 
  • Visibility is deteriorating and the longer-term outlook uncertain. We doubt the share price can hold up as profits decline. 

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) – Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina

By Arun George

Toshiba Bear Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Toshiba (6502) exhibits clear bear momentum as the MACD turns down from key trend resistance. A sharp draw down will set up a buying opportunity.
  • Near sell resistance to short lies at 4,450. Bear projection come in at 4,185 but the MACD coil suggests an undershoot toward 4,100.
  • Macro bet is to buy near spiked lows for a rally to 4,500 and then the bigger 5,000 barrier. Need to see sell volumes deteriorate into weakness.

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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Intouch Holdings, Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June
  • Tencent (700 HK): Game Market Shrinks for the First Time
  • China Internet Weekly (20Feb2023): Tencent, Douyin, Yunda, Dingdong
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Holding Despite Buffett Exit, UMC Discount Opens Up

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas

Tencent (700 HK): Game Market Shrinks for the First Time

By Ming Lu

  • Chinese online game revenue decreased year over year for the first time since the statistic started.
  • From 2018, the Press and Publishing Administration had significantly reduced the number of new game license.
  • Short video has been gradually taking time on site from online game.

China Internet Weekly (20Feb2023): Tencent, Douyin, Yunda, Dingdong

By Ming Lu

  • The Chinese online game market shrank for the first time in 2022.
  • Tencent’s WeChat plans to launch a cooked food delivery platform.
  • Douyin dismissed 15% employees in PICO, which is Douyin’s virtual reality team.

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Holding Despite Buffett Exit, UMC Discount Opens Up

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC – Premium holding up despite Berkshire investment sale news. We maintain a model on the company.
  • UMC – ADR now trading at a discount. Pretty clear opportunity for a reversion back to a premium.
  • ChipMOS – At parity, results coming February 23rd. We maintain a model on the company.

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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Aag Energy Holdings, Pidilite Industries, Boustead Singapore Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (20 Feb) – AAG Energy, Yashili, Toyo, Nitro, Origin Energy, Newcrest, O2Micro
  • NIFTY Mar 23 Rebal: Quiddity Flow Expectations
  • Deep-Dive 2023-3: Boustead Singapore (BOCS SP)

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Feb) – AAG Energy, Yashili, Toyo, Nitro, Origin Energy, Newcrest, O2Micro

By Arun George

NIFTY Mar 23 Rebal: Quiddity Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The March 2023 Rebalance results for the NIFTY broad market Indices were announced after the close on Friday 17th February 2023.
  • In my previous insights, I highlighted Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) as a potential ADD for NIFTY 50 but it will not be added in March 2023. There are no changes.
  • However, for NIFTY 100 (& NIFTY Next 50), 4/5 Expected ADDs and 5/5 Expected DELs were predicted correctly.

Deep-Dive 2023-3: Boustead Singapore (BOCS SP)

By Michael Fritzell

  • The company was founded in 1828 as a British trading house, active across rubber plantations, tin smelting, trading of oil products, shipping, distribution of consumer goods and more.
  • After Singapore become an independent country, Boustead Singapore was spun off from its Malaysian and British counterparts.
  • In 1996, the company became controlled by entrepreneur FF Wong. 

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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Utilities: China Longyuan Power and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • China Longyuan (916 HK): The Bull Story Should Continue

China Longyuan (916 HK): The Bull Story Should Continue

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The FY22 profit warning for China Longyuan Power (916 HK) reflected mostly items of one-off in nature and the weak result should be a matter of the past.
  • The Jan overall generation growth of 30.6% and wind power growth of 44.4% are very solid performance. With economic rebound and low comparison base, we expect growth to sustain.
  • Asset injection from CHN Energy and improvement in financial position through subsidy collection are positives, making its below 10x PERs for FY23 and FY24 attractive. 

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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Sembcorp Marine, Advantest Corp, Fujitec Co Ltd, Toshiba Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value
  • Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound
  • Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) – Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina
  • Toshiba Bear Targets

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

By Arun George

  • The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shares will be credited to Keppel Corp (KEP SP)‘s shareholders on 1 March.   
  • While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. 
  • New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.

Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound

By Scott Foster

  • Advantest’s share price has risen by 21.5% since the beginning of January, but sales and profits are peaking and YoY comparisons are becoming increasingly difficult.
  • Competitor Teradyne’s results and guidance give an indication of potential near-term risk, which could be more than 20%. 
  • Visibility is deteriorating and the longer-term outlook uncertain. We doubt the share price can hold up as profits decline. 

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) – Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina

By Arun George

Toshiba Bear Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Toshiba (6502) exhibits clear bear momentum as the MACD turns down from key trend resistance. A sharp draw down will set up a buying opportunity.
  • Near sell resistance to short lies at 4,450. Bear projection come in at 4,185 but the MACD coil suggests an undershoot toward 4,100.
  • Macro bet is to buy near spiked lows for a rally to 4,500 and then the bigger 5,000 barrier. Need to see sell volumes deteriorate into weakness.

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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Fu Shou Yuan, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification, Which Would Share Disclosure Information Risk

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The second wave of pandemic is important logic to drive up Fu Shou Yuan’s share price, but the peak value/lethality could be lower than first wave, leading to lower-than-expected demand.
  • Whether the second wave can “arrive as expected” may not depend on pandemic itself, but on “whether to let it happen”,especially when China’s making every effort to promote economic recovery.
  • Besides solid fundamentals/optimistic performance, hot market sentiment is very essential if Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)’s share price is to outperform. Policy changes are also a potential source of unease.

Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification, Which Would Share Disclosure Information Risk

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since companies are in the process of raising their own human capital efforts, it’s good to use  ISO 30414 certification as an opportunity to see how well they are doing.
  • Many companies may believe that ISO will share the risk of information at the time of disclosure with respect to the accuracy of the disclosed information.
  • Since perfect information doesn’t seem to be required in the Annual Securities Report for FY3/2023, the information will actually be available for intercompany comparisons starting with that for FY3/2024.

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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Intouch Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas

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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Sembcorp Marine, Boustead Singapore Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value
  • Deep-Dive 2023-3: Boustead Singapore (BOCS SP)

Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Short-Term Share Overhang Vs the Long-Term Value

By Arun George

  • The transaction completes on 28 February and the distribution in-specie of 49% new Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shares will be credited to Keppel Corp (KEP SP)‘s shareholders on 1 March.   
  • While the potential index inclusions are likely to support new SMM shares, there is likely to be greater short-term downward pressure from the overhang created by the distribution in-specie. 
  • New SMM trades at a premium P/NAV multiple of 1.81x vs peers. However, New SMM’s order book of S$18.1 billion implies an undemanding EV/order book of 0.60x vs historical ranges.

Deep-Dive 2023-3: Boustead Singapore (BOCS SP)

By Michael Fritzell

  • The company was founded in 1828 as a British trading house, active across rubber plantations, tin smelting, trading of oil products, shipping, distribution of consumer goods and more.
  • After Singapore become an independent country, Boustead Singapore was spun off from its Malaysian and British counterparts.
  • In 1996, the company became controlled by entrepreneur FF Wong. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Japan: Advantest Corp, Fujitec Co Ltd, Toshiba Corp, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound
  • Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) – Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina
  • Toshiba Bear Targets
  • Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification, Which Would Share Disclosure Information Risk

Advantest (6857): Sell into the Rebound

By Scott Foster

  • Advantest’s share price has risen by 21.5% since the beginning of January, but sales and profits are peaking and YoY comparisons are becoming increasingly difficult.
  • Competitor Teradyne’s results and guidance give an indication of potential near-term risk, which could be more than 20%. 
  • Visibility is deteriorating and the longer-term outlook uncertain. We doubt the share price can hold up as profits decline. 

Weekly Deals Digest (19 Feb) – Fujitec, Toyo, AAG Energy, Yashili, Newcrest, Keppel, Pertamina

By Arun George

Toshiba Bear Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Toshiba (6502) exhibits clear bear momentum as the MACD turns down from key trend resistance. A sharp draw down will set up a buying opportunity.
  • Near sell resistance to short lies at 4,450. Bear projection come in at 4,185 but the MACD coil suggests an undershoot toward 4,100.
  • Macro bet is to buy near spiked lows for a rally to 4,500 and then the bigger 5,000 barrier. Need to see sell volumes deteriorate into weakness.

Expected More Companies to Obtain ISO Certification, Which Would Share Disclosure Information Risk

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since companies are in the process of raising their own human capital efforts, it’s good to use  ISO 30414 certification as an opportunity to see how well they are doing.
  • Many companies may believe that ISO will share the risk of information at the time of disclosure with respect to the accuracy of the disclosed information.
  • Since perfect information doesn’t seem to be required in the Annual Securities Report for FY3/2023, the information will actually be available for intercompany comparisons starting with that for FY3/2024.

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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