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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Haidilao, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Central China Real Estate and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications
  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – The Privatization Rumor and the Outlook
  • Where to Sell Hong Kong
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Sunac China Holdings

Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – The Privatization Rumor and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China TCM’s privatization rumor led to large fluctuation of its share price last week. Since there have been related rumors twice, this may not be completely over yet.
  • China TCM’s performance may not rebound quickly due to short-term challenges in concentrated TCM granules business. 
  • However, the decline in the revenue side could be a temporary phenomenon. After a difficult period, if the Company’s business could recover as expected, share price would rebound. 

Where to Sell Hong Kong

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our long in H shares is looking stretched and we need to fine tune an exit strategy with counter balance pivots. HSI is the short on strength at trendline.
  • A50 13,400 intermediate resistance stands out to cap near term strength and USD/CNH 9.0/01 is our USD buy support that aligns with an A50 top.
  • Consensus is now bullish China (wrinkles to work through) as we face a more uncertain global cycle in Q1. HSI faces wedge and trendline resistance!

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Sunac China Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Industrials: VinFast, Yokogawa Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • VinFast Auto IPO: The Bear Case
  • Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): Carbon-Neutral Industrial Park & Green Hydrogen

VinFast Auto IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), has filed for a US$1.0 billion IPO to list on Nasdaq.
  • In VinFast Auto IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
  • The key elements of the bear case are a lack of brand recognition, questionable ability to generate profits, the precarious state of financing and liability exposure to ICE vehicles.

Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): Carbon-Neutral Industrial Park & Green Hydrogen

By Scott Foster

  • Yokogawa is diversifying with integrated controls systems for green hydrogen plants in the Netherlands and Australia and a carbon neutral industrial park in Japan.
  • Holland Hydrogen I, the YURI hydrogen project and the Goi and Soga Complex take the company beyond oil, gas and petrochemicals.
  • Based on long-term energy and environmental priorities, these projects should be immune to recession.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tyro Payments, Nitro Software Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tyro Payments (TYR AU): Potentia Returns with a A$1.60 Offer
  • Merger Arb Mondays (12 Dec) – Nitro, Tyro, Bigtincan, Warrego, Genex, Elmo, Golden Energy
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Broadcom Results Provide Some Signs of Strength, Hon Hai Facility Ends Lockdown
  • Potentia Bumps But Tyro Shuts Down Talks

Tyro Payments (TYR AU): Potentia Returns with a A$1.60 Offer

By Arun George

  • The AFR reports that Potentia has increased its offer for Tyro Payments (TYR AU) by 26.0% from A$1.27 to A$1.60 per share, a 62.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The revised offer remains light and likely to be rejected again by the Board. Grok’s get-out clause with Potentia now sets the floor price of a competing bid at A$1.85.
  • Potentia’s revised bid is the catalyst for the other rumoured suitors (Westpac Banking (WBC AU) and Moneris) to get their act together. A competing offer of around A$2.00 is possible. 

Merger Arb Mondays (12 Dec) – Nitro, Tyro, Bigtincan, Warrego, Genex, Elmo, Golden Energy

By Arun George


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Broadcom Results Provide Some Signs of Strength, Hon Hai Facility Ends Lockdown

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Broadcom FY22 results indicate strength in data centers, telco infrastructure, enterprise IT spending.
  • Hon Hai’s Zhengzhou facility ends closed-loop operations, returning to a more normal state.
  • U.S. asking Japan to have its firms comply with U.S. chip restrictions on China.

Potentia Bumps But Tyro Shuts Down Talks

By David Blennerhassett

  • Potentia has increased its indicative proposal for Tyro Payments (TYR AU) to A$1.60/share from A$1.27/share. Grok, holding 12.5% of shares out, remains supportive.
  • However, Tyro’s board believes the revised terms remain below what is considered fair, and has ceased all discussions.
  • Separately, Westpac has decided not to submit an Offer. After conducting due diligence. Shares are down 19.5% as I type.

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Daily Brief Industrials: VinFast, Yokogawa Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • VinFast Auto IPO: The Bear Case
  • Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): Carbon-Neutral Industrial Park & Green Hydrogen

VinFast Auto IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), has filed for a US$1.0 billion IPO to list on Nasdaq.
  • In VinFast Auto IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
  • The key elements of the bear case are a lack of brand recognition, questionable ability to generate profits, the precarious state of financing and liability exposure to ICE vehicles.

Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): Carbon-Neutral Industrial Park & Green Hydrogen

By Scott Foster

  • Yokogawa is diversifying with integrated controls systems for green hydrogen plants in the Netherlands and Australia and a carbon neutral industrial park in Japan.
  • Holland Hydrogen I, the YURI hydrogen project and the Goi and Soga Complex take the company beyond oil, gas and petrochemicals.
  • Based on long-term energy and environmental priorities, these projects should be immune to recession.

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Daily Brief Financials: Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Bitcoin Pro, Central China Real Estate, Silvergate Capital and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Where to Sell Hong Kong
  • Crypto At The Christmas Table
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Sunac China Holdings
  • Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+10.69%)

Where to Sell Hong Kong

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our long in H shares is looking stretched and we need to fine tune an exit strategy with counter balance pivots. HSI is the short on strength at trendline.
  • A50 13,400 intermediate resistance stands out to cap near term strength and USD/CNH 9.0/01 is our USD buy support that aligns with an A50 top.
  • Consensus is now bullish China (wrinkles to work through) as we face a more uncertain global cycle in Q1. HSI faces wedge and trendline resistance!

Crypto At The Christmas Table

By Etherbridge

  • We’ve all been there. At some point in the Christmas supper, maybe between the roast turkey and the mince pies, Aunty Hilda or Granda Joe inadvertently starts a heated debate around this “bitcoin thing.”
  • There may be a tech-savvy cousin who tries to come to the rescue and explain how blockchain works or why people value jpegs on the internet, to no avail. 
  • This year the Etherbridge team thought we would do a holiday special titled “Crypto At The Christmas Table” so you are fully prepared to handle any blockchain conversation that may arise. So let’s dive in.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Sunac China Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+10.69%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 6 December we determined that a new interim downtrend low below 23.20 would likely fail and produce a 10% to 20% correction in 1-2 weeks. 
  • SI US subsequently bottomed at 21.32 and produced a 10.69% gain in the following 3 days to a high of 23.60. 
  • Note that this result was at the lower end of our expectations, however we must acknowledge a positive result. Gains were quickly given up in the following session however.

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Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Parkway Life REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – The Privatization Rumor and the Outlook
  • How Much Progress Has Been Made in Understanding the Concept of Shareholder Capitalism Since 1990s?
  • REIT Watch – Healthcare S-Reits capture Japan opportunities with expanding footprint

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) – The Privatization Rumor and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China TCM’s privatization rumor led to large fluctuation of its share price last week. Since there have been related rumors twice, this may not be completely over yet.
  • China TCM’s performance may not rebound quickly due to short-term challenges in concentrated TCM granules business. 
  • However, the decline in the revenue side could be a temporary phenomenon. After a difficult period, if the Company’s business could recover as expected, share price would rebound. 

How Much Progress Has Been Made in Understanding the Concept of Shareholder Capitalism Since 1990s?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Looking back at the genesis of the scandals that are still recurring, the cause has always been lack of awareness of legal compliance. When cross-shareholdings were prevalent, shareholders were underestimated.
  • How widespread has the understanding of the concept of shareholder capitalism, including the cost of capital, become? The starting point is that management must comply with legal compliance.
  • The problem is that the statutory auditors had the authority to function even though independent directors didn’t exist. Diversity is important to create a board of directors that can dissent.

REIT Watch – Healthcare S-Reits capture Japan opportunities with expanding footprint

By Geoff Howie

  • Healthcare S-REITs capture Japan opportunities with expanding footprint Both ParkwayLife Reit (37.1 per cent of its asset value) and First Reit (22.8 per cent of its assets under management) have significant exposure to Japan nursing homes and healthcare-related properties through recent acquisitions.
  • First Reit now has 14 out of its 32 Asian healthcare assets in Japan nursing homes which are operated by five independent and experienced nursing home operators.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Haidilao, LG Energy Solution and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications
  • LG Energy: ESOP Lockup Release (3.5% of SO) & Contrarian Approach Targeting NPS

Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas


LG Energy: ESOP Lockup Release (3.5% of SO) & Contrarian Approach Targeting NPS

By Sanghyun Park

  • The ESOP’s 3.5% stake will be released on January 27. Considering the extremely tight flow situation, this is by no means small. 3.48% is 20 times the recent ADTV.
  • NPS will likely move toward a minimum stake of 6% again for LG Energy, irrespective of LG Energy’s current valuation, despite its recent selling.
  • We should consider the possibility that NPS will contrarily utilize this ESOP lockup release, and we should also design a contrarian position for this lockup release.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEM Weekly (9 Dec 2022): China Inflation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEM Weekly (9 Dec 2022): China Inflation, South Africa GDP; JD Logistics, SEC, Naver, TSMC, NetEase
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.9) – COVID Policy Update, Biotech Growth Curve, HKEX Chapter 18A Review

GEM Weekly (9 Dec 2022): China Inflation, South Africa GDP; JD Logistics, SEC, Naver, TSMC, NetEase

By Wium Malan, CFA


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.9) – COVID Policy Update, Biotech Growth Curve, HKEX Chapter 18A Review

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China further optimized COVID policy. The main reason to ease the policy at this time could be to release risks in advance so as to recover as soon as possible.
  • The growth curve of biotech is not linear. We analyzed three situations to help investors better understand “the new story” of Biotech at different stages.
  • We reviewed the performance of Company listed under HKEX Chapter 18A since this year. We found some interesting points worth the attention.

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Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) – ITail and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) – ITail, Sunshine, Weilong, VinFast, Skymark, Tian Tu, Cntry Gard, Nippon

ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) – ITail, Sunshine, Weilong, VinFast, Skymark, Tian Tu, Cntry Gard, Nippon

By Sumeet Singh


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • Weekly Deals Digest (11 Dec) – Toshiba, Bigtincan, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, VinFast, Weilong
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, HSTECH, TWDiv+, EPRA Nareit, HSCEI, PCOMP, STAR50, REMX, GDXJ
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: JAFCO, Jardine Cycle, Softbank, Star Health
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Xingda, Nitro, Chip Eng Seng, Traditional Chinese Medicine
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (9 Dec): Hopefluent, Matrix, Country Garden Services

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

Weekly Deals Digest (11 Dec) – Toshiba, Bigtincan, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, VinFast, Weilong

By Arun George


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, HSTECH, TWDiv+, EPRA Nareit, HSCEI, PCOMP, STAR50, REMX, GDXJ

By Brian Freitas


Last Week in Event SPACE: JAFCO, Jardine Cycle, Softbank, Star Health

By David Blennerhassett

  • In principle, Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) still wants to be greenmailed to get Murakami-san out. 
  • Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP)i is expensive here – relative to historical values –  and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed.
  • If you think this is a “risk”, then you want to be long when the discount is wide and Softbank Group (9984 JP) is monetising assets in some way. 

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Xingda, Nitro, Chip Eng Seng, Traditional Chinese Medicine

By David Blennerhassett


Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (9 Dec): Hopefluent, Matrix, Country Garden Services

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • These insights may flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include Hopefluent Group (733 HK), Matrix Holdings (1005 HK), Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK).

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