Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu will deliver his inaugural policy address on the 19 October, where he is expected to announce a number of “ground-breaking” measures.
• One such measure is non-residents who have owned property in Hong Kong for 3+ years may get their extra stamp duty refunded – if they take up permanent residency.
• Secondary home prices have declined  8% year-to-date, and are approaching a five-year low. Goldman Sachs expects home prices to decline 30% in 2023 from last year’s levels.  

• Mitsubishi Estate Logistics (3481 JP) (MEL) is looking to raise US$145m from its primary follow-on offering to acquire eight properties.
• The offering is a large one, resulting in a 10.2% dilution, and would represent 34 days of three month ADV.
• In this note, we will look at the deal dynamics, and run the deal through our framework.

• China Vast Industrial Urban Development (6166 HK) announced that all the pre-conditions were fulfilled. China Jinmao Holdings (817 HK)’s offer is HK$2.40 per share.
• The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of disinterested shareholders rejection). Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive.
• The offer is light, but the headcount test is not applicable. At last close and for a year-end payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.8% and 4.0%, respectively.

• Last Friday, small-cap logistics JREIT Mitsubishi Estate Logistics (3481 JP) (“MEL“) announced a follow-on equity offering to fund part of their recently-announced property acquisition. 
• The primary offer quantity is 51,000 units. In addition, there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 2,550 units. The total size of this offering could be roughly ¥23bn (~US$157mn). 
• Below is a closer look at the details of this offering and the potential of this offering to trigger strong secondary market performance in the following weeks.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• CIFI Holdings
• Fosun International
• Kawasan Industri Jababeka

• Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) remains the best proxy for Indonesia’s huge and underbanked MSME sector, which accounts for around 60% of the country’s economy. 
• The bank now has over 83% of loans exposed to the micro segment and has a long-track record operating in the micro space, with a sound record of managing risk. 
• Bank Rakyat continues to increasingly utilise digital channels utilise digital channels to expand its network and reduce costs. Valuations remain attractive and a an ongoing recovery in place. 

• Being an incumbent and moving in any direction when it comes to Web3 is exceptionally difficult.
• That’s why I always use, to this day, the NBA and Top Shot as a great example of how a simple concept, that requires a blockchain, can succeed in attracting a large scale audience beyond Web3.
• FIFA + Collect is FIFA’s attempt at digital assets in the same format.