All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Shimano (7309) | Six Reasons to Stay Bullish and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Shimano (7309) | Six Reasons to Stay Bullish
  • Lasertec (6920) | ASML Shrugs off the Tech Recession
  • Shiseido: China Exposure, Potential Earnings Misses and Write-Offs Create Additional Downside Risk
  • EVA Precision: Catalysts Galore, Lots to Look Forward to in FY23
  • Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview–Beat Widely Expected Due to Musk’s Twitter Deal
  • Shift: Strong Earnings with Compelling Valuation
  • Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Downturn Discounted but Maybe Not Its Duration
  • India Channel Insight #45 | TTK Prestige, Symphony, Bajaj Electricals
  • Netflix 3Q22: Coast Is Clear?
  • S&P Hasn’t Priced a Recession In

Shimano (7309) | Six Reasons to Stay Bullish

By Mark Chadwick

  • Shimano’s stock price declined by 5.8% today on a broker downgrade, citing a slowdown in Europe
  • Shimano has zero debt, tons of cash, low capital investment requirements and pricing power = defensive business model
  • We can think of six reasons to remain bullish on the stock 

Lasertec (6920) | ASML Shrugs off the Tech Recession

By Mark Chadwick

  • ASML, a key supplier of EUV semicon equipment, reported better-than-expected third-quarter sales and profit along with record new bookings
  • CEO Peter Wennink said customers were focusing on plans to expand their long-term capacity, rather than the current economic slowdown and weakness in end-markets
  • That should be music to the ears of Lasertec shareholders. The stock has plummeted 49% so far this year. Valuations are attractive

Shiseido: China Exposure, Potential Earnings Misses and Write-Offs Create Additional Downside Risk

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Shiseido Company (4911 JP)’s valuation multiples have come down a lot over the last year. However, they don’t seem genuinely cheap with FY+2 consensus EV/OP at 25.4x.
  • Meanwhile, Shiseido’s position in the Chinese market is weakening and there are also risks such as earnings misses and write-offs.
  • Thus, we think there’s more downside to Shiseido, whose share price may seem cheap after declining by more than 35% during the past 10 months of this year.

EVA Precision: Catalysts Galore, Lots to Look Forward to in FY23

By Sameer Taneja

  • Post a 40% correction, Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) is now at a PE of 9x/5.8x FY22/23e with a dividend yield of 3.0/5.1% FY22/23e (assuming a 30% payout ratio).
  • The company has resumed buybacks since the 13th of October, purchasing 1.43 mn shares (0.08% of outstanding shares) over four trading sessions. We see this trend continue for two weeks.
  • Catalysts here would come from solid earnings releases, strong order book-related announcements, and a potential to unlock value from the business. 

Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview–Beat Widely Expected Due to Musk’s Twitter Deal

By SC Capital

  • Tesla will announce Q3 2022 earnings results after the US market close on October 19th. 
  • Given that CEO Elon Musk needs to sell more of his Tesla shares to fund his Twitter buyout by month end, the Street widely expects a huge earnings beat. 
  • Q3 fundamentals were weak for Tesla and orders in Q4 point to another delivery miss versus consensus. We recommend selling into any spike on a positive Q3 print. 

Shift: Strong Earnings with Compelling Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY08/2022 results last week. Revenue increased 36.2% YoY to JPY17.9bn while OP increased 17.7% YoY to JPY 1.6bn during 4Q.
  • Full-Year revenue and OP grew 41% YoY (JPY64.9bn) and 73% YoY (JPY6.9bn) beating its own guidance while both revenue and OP fell slightly below consensus estimates.
  • Shift’s shares are down 14% YTD as the market excessively reacted to decline in margins which we think is unwarranted.

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Downturn Discounted but Maybe Not Its Duration

By Scott Foster

  • Share price down 50% from its peak, discounting a downturn of historical magnitude.
  • But history also suggests that the downturn might last two years, in which case it would be too early to buy. 
  • Impact of COVID lockdown fading. No impact from U.S. sanctions yet. Weaker guidance ahead, in our estimation. 

India Channel Insight #45 | TTK Prestige, Symphony, Bajaj Electricals

By Pranav Bhavsar


Netflix 3Q22: Coast Is Clear?

By Aaron Gabin

  • Netflix’s stock has outperformed the market by 25% over the past quarter on faith that the new advertising tier will unlock the next leg of the growth narrative. 
  • 3Q22 had two of its biggest hits ever – Stranger Things and Dahmer, Netflix beat its own guidance of 1M by only 1.4M…APAC added 1.4M, most from low ARPU India
  • Pulling subscriber guidance is a yellow flag, as is the lack of details on how AVOD will be “neutral to positive” over time. 

S&P Hasn’t Priced a Recession In

By BluSuit

  • Emotions run high in bear markets. Often times, it’s very difficult to post analysis because it doesn’t always follow consensus.
  • But, the purpose of this newsletter is to be 100% transparent in my thinking which may not always be 100% popular.
  • In this case, we are going to take a look at a historically accurate bottom indicator and run specific price targets on the S&P on a valuation perspective.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Australia: Tyro Payments and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tyro Payments In Talks With Westpac
  • Tyro Confirms Westpac as One of the Interested Suitors

Tyro Payments In Talks With Westpac

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 8 September, payment provider Tyro Payments (TYR AU) rejected a proposal from a Potentia-led consortium at A$1.27/share, by way of a Scheme. 
  • Tyro has now announced it has received approaches from several parties, including Westpac (WBC AU). “None of these approaches are sufficiently definite … to warrant further disclosure at this time“.
  • Shares are currently trading at A$1.59/share. Tyro recently raised its FY23 EBITDA guidance to A$28mn-34mn, up from A$23mn-29mn. 

Tyro Confirms Westpac as One of the Interested Suitors

By Arun George

  • Tyro Payments (TYR AU) confirmed that it has “received approaches from several parties expressing interest in a potential change of control transaction, including Westpac Banking (WBC AU).
  • Tyro previously rejected a A$1.27 offer from the Potentia consortium. Grok’s get-out clause with Potentia sets the floor price of a competing bid at A$1.52 per share.
  • The last close of A$1.59 is higher than the floor price. Triangulating the value of a rival bid across several data points suggests a competing offer of around A$2.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Thailand: Berli Jucker and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Thailand SET50 Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: BJC Is the Most Interesting Name

Thailand SET50 Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: BJC Is the Most Interesting Name

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) between now and the December 2022 Rebalance.
  • There is an ongoing market consultation with significant implications for constituent selection and there is also a potential intra-review change due to the DTAC-TRUE merger.
  • Based on the latest available data, there could three or four index changes during the December 2022 Rebalance depending on the outcome of the DTAC-TRUE merger.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Indonesia: Blibli, Agung Podomoro Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • PT Global Digital Trade (BliBli) Pre-IPO – The Positives – Wide Offering, Strong COVID Bounce Back
  • Blibli IPO – Indonesia E-Commerce Is Struggling, Blibli Even More So
  • Blibli IPO: The Bear Case
  • Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land

PT Global Digital Trade (BliBli) Pre-IPO – The Positives – Wide Offering, Strong COVID Bounce Back

By Sumeet Singh

  • PT Global Digital Trade (1437710D IJ)  (BliBli) aims to raise up to US$530m in its Indonesian IPO.
  • BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions
  • In this note, we’ll talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Blibli IPO – Indonesia E-Commerce Is Struggling, Blibli Even More So

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Blibli (1437710D IJ), one of Indonesia’s leading e-commerce platforms is looking to raise around $470-530m via an IPO on Indonesia Stock Exchange.
  • Looking at Shopee’s struggles in the past year and Bukalapak’s rapid fall following the IPO, we think investors are unlikely to be interested in the Blibli IPO.
  • This could mean that Blibli’s days are numbered as it is resting all hopes on the IPO to fund its short-term loan repayment obligations.

Blibli IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Blibli (1437710D IJ), a leading Indonesian e-commerce player, has launched an IDR8.2 trillion (US$530 million) Indonesian IPO. Bookbuilding is from 17 to 24 October.
  • In Blibli IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on weak sector sentiment, an unclear path to profitability, and credible long-term funding to support the high cash burn.  

Morning Views Asia: Agung Podomoro Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief United States: Russell 2000 Index, CloudFlare , Arlo Technologies Inc, Viavi Solutions, Bill.Com Holdings, McCormick & Company, NFT, General Mills and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance
  • Cloudflare Inc: Launch of CAPTCHA Substitute & Other Developments
  • ARLO: Disconnected to Ongoing Growth
  • Viavi Solutions Inc.: The Jackson Labs Acquisition & Other Drivers
  • Bill.com Holdings Inc.: Business Model
  • McCormick & Co.: Major Drivers
  • #38 Anatomy of an NFT purchase
  • General Mills Inc: Major Drivers

Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

By Joe Jasper

  • Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 — both important support levels moving forward.
  • We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.
  • Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.

Cloudflare Inc: Launch of CAPTCHA Substitute & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Despite the heightened economic unpredictability, Cloudflare had a good quarter and managed to deliver an all-around beat.
  • The company generated $234 million in sales in Q2, up 54% from the same period last year.
  • They now have 1,749 customers that pay them more than $100,000 annually after recently adding 212 additional large customers.

ARLO: Disconnected to Ongoing Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO has the help of a product purchase agreement to smooth out lumpiness in consumer spending in the current macroenvironment
  • While ARLO is targeting a higher income consumer with products that are priced higher than competition, there is still a risk that could have played out in September.
  • Number of paid subscribers should continue to rise in the third quarter with possibility it could be materially higher than our forecast

Viavi Solutions Inc.: The Jackson Labs Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Viavi had a strong performance in the final quarter of its fiscal year 2022 and the company delivered an all-around beat.
  • For fiscal Q4 2022, the SE business’s revenue was constant from year to year.
  • Strong NE bookings during the fiscal fourth quarter led to a seasonally stronger Q1 backlog and demand visibility.

Bill.com Holdings Inc.: Business Model

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Bill.com, a leading fintech player that provides digitization solutions for back-office financial operations of SMBs.
  • They established new strategic alliances and started expanding their clientele internationally, providing services to clients in more than 150 nations.
  • Their organic client base achieved record growth and their customer retention and net dollar-based retention rates also expanded considerably in the last quarter.

McCormick & Co.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • McCormick had a disappointing quarter with a 3% top-line growth from the same quarter last year, just on par with expectations.
  • The management remains focused on managing inventory levels and removing inefficiencies across the supply chain.
  • High meat prices had an influence on grilling-related items compared to last year, although grilling is remains popular compared to pre=pandemic levels.

#38 Anatomy of an NFT purchase

By Carbono Insights

  • Buying an NFT from OpenSea is probably one of the most convenient ways of approaching blockchain technology for any newcomer.
  • And yet it can be intimidating. The process starts as something familiar and easy to understand.
  • Still, it soon becomes challenging once you start seeing the different tokens and blockchains once you interact with a wallet.

General Mills Inc: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • General Mills delivered a mixed result for the previous quarter, failing to meet market expectations on the revenue front but delivering an earnings beat.
  • The HMM cost savings, along with gains from pricing mix, offset inflation, deleverage, and the other types of operating costs benefitted General Mills’ bottom-line and helped deliver an earnings beat.
  • The good news was that General Mills’ service levels increased slightly.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief China: Perfect Medical Health, China Vast Industrial Urban Development, CanSino Biologics Inc, China Energy Engineering, Giant Biogene Holding and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Perfect Medical: Correction Provides An Opportunity For Entry
  • China VAST (6166 HK): Expect November Scheme Meeting As Pre-Cons Satisfied
  • CanSino Biologics Inc (688185.CH/6185.HK) – Some Positive Progress in Business
  • Energy China (3996 HK): Positive Developments in All Fronts
  • Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

Perfect Medical: Correction Provides An Opportunity For Entry

By Sameer Taneja

  • Post the massive correction in the China market, Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) trades at 9.6x/6.9x PE FY23e/24e with a 10.4%/14.6% dividend yield assuming a 100% payout ratio.
  • From interactions with the management, HK’s operations are in good health, with Q2 revenues normalizing to precovid levels. China has yet to recover as intermittent lockdowns plague its operations. 
  • With cash and financial investments over 550 mn HKD ( 16% of market capitalization ), the company has the opportunity to make accretive acquisitions to grow its business.

China VAST (6166 HK): Expect November Scheme Meeting As Pre-Cons Satisfied

By David Blennerhassett


CanSino Biologics Inc (688185.CH/6185.HK) – Some Positive Progress in Business

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)’s business has made some positive progress recently, including the launch of COVID-19 Vaccine for Inhalation, commercialization and development progress of MCV4/PCV13i, etc. 
  • CanSino’s technology platforms are very valuable and are above average level. Currently, there’re little potential domestic competitors, because CanSino’s products are newer, better and safer than domestic homogenized products.
  • Even based on conservative forecast, CanSino’s valuation in HKEX is “ridiculously low”. Considering the downside risk in HKEX, CanSino A-share could be better option before valuation in HKEX becomes reasonable.

Energy China (3996 HK): Positive Developments in All Fronts

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Energy Engineering (3996 HK) witnessed a good acceleration in quarterly new contracts in this year. We estimate current backlog equals to 6.4x its FY21 revenue.
  • It is well geared towards China’s new energy development, as reflected by a 108.3% YoY surge in new energy contracts. Its pumped storage new contract value leaped 144x in 1H22.
  • The spin-off of Gezhouba Explosive in the A-share market is progressing well with approval from shareholders in Sep. The stock’s 4.1x PER and 0.33x P/B look undemanding.

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK) aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
  • We had looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we’ll talk about valuations.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief South Korea: HYBE, LG Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Netmarble Debt Risk Victim: HYBE or NCsoft or Both?
  • A Pair Trade Between LG Corp & LG Electronics

Netmarble Debt Risk Victim: HYBE or NCsoft or Both?

By Sanghyun Park

  • Netmarble did a one-year rollover for the stock loan used for the SpinX acquisition. The maturity is again one year, and the principal amount is ₩1.5T.
  • The HYBE stake is newly included as collateral at an estimated LTV ratio of 50% because the value of NCsoft’s stake further declined, and the LTV ratio was subsequently lowered.
  • Applying the 140% loss cut ratio to HYBE and NCsoft will lead to a margin call when each stock declines 30% from the current price.

A Pair Trade Between LG Corp & LG Electronics

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between LG Corp (003550 KS) (go long) and LG Electronics (066570 KS) (go short).
  • LG Electronics is likely to have continued weakening results, due to rising interest rates on the household disposable income in major countries.
  • Our base case valuation analysis of LG Corp suggests an implied price of 93,905 won per share, representing 19% upside from current levels.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Recruit Holdings, Softbank Group, Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) – There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News
  • Recruit Buyback – A Temporary Support to Falling Share Price
  • Softbank Group – The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue
  • Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP): Myovant Is Crucial for Post-Latuda Growth Momentum
  • The Timing of the Mandatory Disclosure of Human Capital Information Should Not Be a Sticking Point

Toshiba (6502) – There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News

By Travis Lundy

  • A week after JIP gets preferred status and we had rumoured bid prices, we now have an article saying JIC/Bain is still in it, and a new article today.
  • Today’s “new” article says JIP’s bid price is what the first leak suggested, which is below ¥6,000/share. Other articles suggest bidders are finding that securing financing is tough. 
  • Investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and most others. It matters. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.

Recruit Buyback – A Temporary Support to Falling Share Price

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) announced a buyback yesterday for a maximum of 42m (2.55% of total shares outstanding) shares for an aggregate of JPY150bn from the market.
  • Recruit’s shares closed at JPY4,257 per share at the end of yesterday’s trading, and shares have moved up almost 5% during today’s trade following the buyback announcement.
  • This is Recruit’s second buyback in 2022 where some of its shareholders reduced their stakes during the previous buyback (tender offer agreements) in January this year.

Softbank Group – The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

By Kirk Boodry

  • We’ve been pessimistic on prospects for ARM and recent news flow and share price performance hasn’t helped but a decent report from TSMC eases some of our concerns
  • Softbank needs high teens royalty revenue growth for ARM and TSMC as a bellwether (+30% for Q3 and Q4 guidance) is better than AMD or Nvidia
  • We remain more conservative on valuation ($37bn) than Softbank assuming high single-digit growth and c. 43% EBITDA margins

Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP): Myovant Is Crucial for Post-Latuda Growth Momentum

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP) offered to acquire Myovant Sciences (MYOV US), which was rejected due to low valuation. The company is unlikely to revise its offer for Myovant.
  • As Sumitomo’s in-house drug candidates are still in clinical stages, the company needs Myovant’s already marketed products to maintain its growth momentum post Latuda patent expiry.
  • Sumitomo is not expected to sell its existing 52% stake in Myovant. This will ensure that Myovant’s marketed products Orgovyx and Myfembree should continue to remain as Sumitomo’s growth drivers.  

The Timing of the Mandatory Disclosure of Human Capital Information Should Not Be a Sticking Point

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It is useful for statutory documents disclosing a company’s medium-to-long-term management strategy to include information on “human capital,” which plays a role in sustainable growth.
  • If the mandatory timing of the information to be disclosed in annual securities report is accelerated, there is risk that the information will be similar to that of other companies.
  • The government should not stick to 2023 for the mandatory inclusion in annual securities reports, but should give companies time to encourage them to deepen what they include.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Most Read: Toshiba Corp, Andon Health Co Ltd A, Blibli, Mitsubishi Estate Logistics, Tyro Payments, Giant Biogene Holding, LG Electronics, China Vast Industrial Urban Development, Pidilite Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502) – There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News
  • SZSE1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & MSCI/​FTSE Eligibility
  • Blibli IPO: The Bull Case
  • Mitsubishi Estate Logistics (3481 JP): Offering Could Trigger Outperformance Vs Peers Like Last Time
  • Tyro Payments In Talks With Westpac
  • PT Global Digital Trade (BliBli) Pre-IPO – The Positives – Wide Offering, Strong COVID Bounce Back
  • Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Might Need to Spend a Lot More Online
  • A Pair Trade Between LG Corp & LG Electronics
  • China VAST (6166 HK): Expect November Scheme Meeting As Pre-Cons Satisfied
  • NIFTY Indices: HDFC/HDFCB Merger Driven Market Consultation

Toshiba (6502) – There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News

By Travis Lundy

  • A week after JIP gets preferred status and we had rumoured bid prices, we now have an article saying JIC/Bain is still in it, and a new article today.
  • Today’s “new” article says JIP’s bid price is what the first leak suggested, which is below ¥6,000/share. Other articles suggest bidders are finding that securing financing is tough. 
  • Investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and most others. It matters. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.

SZSE1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Stock Connect & MSCI/​FTSE Eligibility

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period for the SZSE1000 Index, we estimate around 50 changes to the index. The first-order impact on the stocks is not large.
  • Stocks that are not currently in Buy/Sell Stock Connect will be added to the list. That makes them eligible for inclusion in the MSCI and FTSE indices in February/March.
  • 5 of the potential adds could be added to the MSCI China Index in February and 34 of the potential adds could be added to the FTSE All-World/All-Cap in March.

Blibli IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Blibli (1437710D IJ), a leading Indonesian e-commerce player, has launched an IDR8.2 trillion (US$530 million) Indonesian IPO. Bookbuilding is from 17 to 24 October.
  • According to Frost & Sullivan, Blibli.com was No. 1 in the fresh food category and 1P consumer electronics in the B2C omnichannel among e-commerce players in Indonesia in 2021. 
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on a large and growing addressable market, strong ecosystem, high order values, rising cohort spending and fast-paced growth. 

Mitsubishi Estate Logistics (3481 JP): Offering Could Trigger Outperformance Vs Peers Like Last Time

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Last Friday, small-cap logistics JREIT Mitsubishi Estate Logistics (3481 JP) (“MEL“) announced a follow-on equity offering to fund part of their recently-announced property acquisition. 
  • The primary offer quantity is 51,000 units. In addition, there will also be an over-allotment quantity of 2,550 units. The total size of this offering could be roughly ¥23bn (~US$157mn). 
  • Below is a closer look at the details of this offering and the potential of this offering to trigger strong secondary market performance in the following weeks.

Tyro Payments In Talks With Westpac

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 8 September, payment provider Tyro Payments (TYR AU) rejected a proposal from a Potentia-led consortium at A$1.27/share, by way of a Scheme. 
  • Tyro has now announced it has received approaches from several parties, including Westpac (WBC AU). “None of these approaches are sufficiently definite … to warrant further disclosure at this time“.
  • Shares are currently trading at A$1.59/share. Tyro recently raised its FY23 EBITDA guidance to A$28mn-34mn, up from A$23mn-29mn. 

PT Global Digital Trade (BliBli) Pre-IPO – The Positives – Wide Offering, Strong COVID Bounce Back

By Sumeet Singh

  • PT Global Digital Trade (1437710D IJ)  (BliBli) aims to raise up to US$530m in its Indonesian IPO.
  • BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions
  • In this note, we’ll talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Giant Biogene Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Might Need to Spend a Lot More Online

By Sumeet Singh

  • Giant Biogene Holding (GBH HK)  aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
  • We had looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we’ll undertake a peer comparison.

A Pair Trade Between LG Corp & LG Electronics

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between LG Corp (003550 KS) (go long) and LG Electronics (066570 KS) (go short).
  • LG Electronics is likely to have continued weakening results, due to rising interest rates on the household disposable income in major countries.
  • Our base case valuation analysis of LG Corp suggests an implied price of 93,905 won per share, representing 19% upside from current levels.

China VAST (6166 HK): Expect November Scheme Meeting As Pre-Cons Satisfied

By David Blennerhassett


NIFTY Indices: HDFC/HDFCB Merger Driven Market Consultation

By Brian Freitas


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief India: Pidilite Industries, Oil India Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY Indices: HDFC/HDFCB Merger Driven Market Consultation
  • Oil India (OINL IN): Value Trap, Avoid

NIFTY Indices: HDFC/HDFCB Merger Driven Market Consultation

By Brian Freitas


Oil India (OINL IN): Value Trap, Avoid

By Gauri Anand

  • Low valuations (3x Earnings, 8% cash yield) and an under supplied Oil market, nice value concoction  
  • However, large part of value hinges on growth beyond FY25E, execution challenges and regulatory intervention may necessitate additional debt to fund ongoing capex
  • Thus deleveraging unlikely, narrowing TV for traditional fuels – risks both earnings and valuations 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars