All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Santos Ltd, Genesis Minerals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Abacus Storage, Gold Road, PointsBet, Smart Share, Apiam, Lynch
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Abacus Storage, Gold Road, PointsBet, Smart Share, Apiam, Lynch

By David Blennerhassett


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • A new selection methodology will be used for the ASX index family starting from the September 2025 index review. We first wrote about this a couple of months ago (link).
  • In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and six changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 14 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thailand: Krungthai Card and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

By David Blennerhassett


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: HMM Co., Ltd., KT&G Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Fresh, Highly Noteworthy Newsflow Hits the HMM Tender
  • KT&G: Increasing Probability of a Cigarette Price Hike in the Next 6-12 Months


Fresh, Highly Noteworthy Newsflow Hits the HMM Tender

By Sanghyun Park

  • Minister Jin, Busan’s sole ruling-party lawmaker, gives his out-of-the-blue remarks significant political weight, making the local-government HMM stake plan materially more likely than mere weekend chatter.
  • Fresh newsflow shifts the tender hedge narrative: Jin’s remark likely nudges KOBC toward skipping, while KDB is locked in.
  • KOBC’s tender decision and Jin’s remarks could flip post-tender bias, raising hedge difficulty; a cautious approach is needed, monitoring price action and exposure risk before stepping in.

KT&G: Increasing Probability of a Cigarette Price Hike in the Next 6-12 Months

By Douglas Kim

  • A cigarette price hike has been long overdue in Korea. The last time there was cigarette price hike in Korea was more than 10 years ago.
  • We believe that the Korean government could raise cigarette prices to about 7,000 won to 8,000 won per pack from current price of 4,500 won in the next 6-12 months.
  • Raising cigarette prices could improve the sharp shortfall in government tax revenues.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: Dongfeng Motor, Horizon Robotics, Alibaba, Pop Mart, Ascletis Pharma Inc, BeOne, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, Saint Bella and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics
  • Volatility Cones: Opportunities Across 8 Hong Kong Stocks
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.24)-JD Health 25H1 Results, Hansoh Placement, Ascletis Pharma Placement
  • BeOne Medicines: Initiation of Coverage- 20 expected R&D milestones In The Next 18 Months Signalling A Massive Upside? – Major Drivers
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates, Earnings, Cash Flow All Collapsing (August 2025)
  • Saint Bella: H1’25 Earnings Review – Clear Visibility on Strong Growth and Improving Profitability


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
  • The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price. 
  • The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative. 

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics

By Brian Freitas

  • There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the September rebalance. 
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 10.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$818m). There are a bunch of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • There is a huge FAF increase for Horizon Robotics and that will bring passive buying from the HSTECH trackers too. The stock is being added to a global index on Tuesday.

Volatility Cones: Opportunities Across 8 Hong Kong Stocks

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Volatility cones chart implied volatility against historical percentiles across the term structure, providing a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
  • Highlight: Several high-profile HK stocks currently show historically cheap implied volatility. With some of them trading near 52-week highs, now may be an opportune time to hedge.
  • Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Pop Mart Pops Ahead of Double Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.24)-JD Health 25H1 Results, Hansoh Placement, Ascletis Pharma Placement

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The 25H1 results of JD Health beat expectations. Due to the strong financial position/positive growth outlook, reasonable valuation of JD Health is P/S of 3 to 4x.
  • Ascletis announced Share Placing.If ASC30’s Phase IIa data remain excellent, potential BD/licensing deal would drive valuation to HK$25bn. However, if clinical data is disappointing, valuation may fall below HK$12 billion.
  • Reasonable valuation of Hansoh is about RMB108-111 billion. So, the Placing Price of HK$36.30 per Placing Share is expensive. We think the valuation of Hansoh should be lower than BeiGene.

BeOne Medicines: Initiation of Coverage- 20 expected R&D milestones In The Next 18 Months Signalling A Massive Upside? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BeOne Medicines recently announced its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025.
  • The company reported significant financial and strategic progress, reinforcing its position in the market.
  • Breaking down the results, BeOne’s revenue reached $1.3 billion, reflecting a robust 42% year-over-year growth.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates, Earnings, Cash Flow All Collapsing (August 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Our proprietary index shows price momentum has continued to weaken in Q3
  • Some carriers have tightened FY25 earnings ranges, but mood mostly downbeat
  • We remain -ive on the sector; stay SHORT ZIM against LONG CM PORTS pair

Saint Bella: H1’25 Earnings Review – Clear Visibility on Strong Growth and Improving Profitability

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Saint Bella, a leading family care group in Asia, announced first interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2025 as a public company.
  • Premium postpartum care service provider successfully completed an initial public offering in Hong Kong at HK$6.58 per share, raising ~HK$709m of net proceeds.
  • I was impressed with 40%+ YoY revenue growth in the home care services business segment, gross profit margin expansion across the board and net profit of ~RMB327m.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief India: Swiggy and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 13 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 18.23bn (US$209m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • The adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 months and there has been noticeable outperformance in the last couple of weeks.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Apple , Zillow Group Inc A, Fortinet Inc, Global Payments, Guess? Inc, STERIS , Symbotic, Alphabet , Hubspot Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel’s Historic Agreement Or Moment Of Surrender?
  • Apple Is Falling Behind: Is Google Winning The Smartphone AI War?
  • Zillow Group: Initiation of Coverage- Riding a 56% Rentals Revenue Surge—Will Partnerships Unlock Even Bigger Gains?
  • Fortinet’s Product Pipeline Surges—Can Its Growth Outpace Rivals?
  • Global Payments: Expanding Boldly Into International Markets With Genius Platform Push!
  • Guess Goes Private In $1.4 Billion Authentic Brands Deal — What It Means For Investors!
  • STERIS plc: Initiation of Coverage- These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond!
  • Symbotic: Initiation of Coverage- A Game-Changing Storage Tech That Could Redefine Warehousing Forever!
  • Google’s Future On The Brink: Chrome Breakup & Search Data Sharing Loom Large!
  • HubSpot Inc.: Diversification of Lead Generation Channels to Sustain Growth & Client Acquisition Momentum Across Varying Digital Environments!


Intel’s Historic Agreement Or Moment Of Surrender?

By William Keating

  • Intel has agreed to convert US CHIPs Act funding (past & future) & Secure Enclave contracts into a 10% equity stake for the US Administration.
  • The equity stake will comprise 433.3 million primary shares of Intel common stock at a price of $20.47 per share, a roughly 16% discount to their market value yesterday
  • In his commentary on the deal, President Trump referred to Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan as a victim, stating he came to the White House to save his job. Wow!

Apple Is Falling Behind: Is Google Winning The Smartphone AI War?

By Baptista Research

  • As of August 2025, the smartphone war has shifted—hardware takes a backseat, and AI drives the battle.
  • Google’s Pixel 10 has emerged as the AI leader, showcasing real-time voice translation, proactive features like Magic Cue, and intelligent photo tools.
  • These aren’t experimental; they’re already in users’ hands.

Zillow Group: Initiation of Coverage- Riding a 56% Rentals Revenue Surge—Will Partnerships Unlock Even Bigger Gains?

By Baptista Research

  • Zillow Group’s recent quarterly performance highlights several strategic advancements and operational successes alongside some challenges that offer a comprehensive view of its current and future growth trajectory.
  • Zillow Group reported a 15% year-over-year increase in total revenue, reaching $655 million for the second quarter, surpassing their predicted outlook.
  • This growth is an encouraging sign, especially when paired with the attainment of a positive net income for the second consecutive quarter.

Fortinet’s Product Pipeline Surges—Can Its Growth Outpace Rivals?

By Baptista Research

  • Fortinet’s second quarter of 2025 financial results reflect a strong and balanced performance, driven by its strategic focus on unified cybersecurity solutions and robust customer growth.
  • Fortinet saw a 15% increase in billings to $1.78 billion, with revenue growing 14% to $1.63 billion, primarily fueled by its expanding market presence in unified Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) and AI-driven security operations.
  • The company maintained a solid non-GAAP operating margin of 33%, indicating operational efficiency despite increased investment activities.

Global Payments: Expanding Boldly Into International Markets With Genius Platform Push!

By Baptista Research

  • Global Payments Inc. has reported its second quarter 2025 earnings, showcasing progress across several business segments and initiatives.
  • The company’s earnings for the quarter slightly surpassed expectations, with adjusted net revenue reaching $2.36 billion, marking a 5% constant currency growth when excluding dispositions.
  • The adjusted operating margin improved by 130 basis points to 44.6%, with adjusted EPS increasing by 11%.

Guess Goes Private In $1.4 Billion Authentic Brands Deal — What It Means For Investors!

By Baptista Research

  • Guess?
  • Inc. has announced it will go private in a $1.4 billion transaction with Authentic Brands Group, marking a pivotal moment in the denim retailer’s four-decade history.
  • The buyout, which offers shareholders $16.75 per share in cash—a 26% premium to the closing stock price on the day prior to the announcement—signals a new chapter for the company amid operational headwinds and evolving consumer behavior.

STERIS plc: Initiation of Coverage- These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • STERIS plc’s first quarter of fiscal 2026 demonstrates a solid start to the financial year, with several key performance metrics showcasing both growth and resilience amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • The company reported a 9% increase in total revenue, and an 8% rise in constant currency organic revenue growth, pointing to robust operational performance that was primarily driven by volume and a favorable pricing environment.
  • This growth in revenue was accompanied by a slight increase in gross margin, up 20 basis points from the previous year to 45.3%.

Symbotic: Initiation of Coverage- A Game-Changing Storage Tech That Could Redefine Warehousing Forever!

By Baptista Research

  • Symbotic Corporation recently reported its third-quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025.
  • The company demonstrated a robust performance with a 26% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $592 million.
  • This growth was attributed largely to the expansion and continued deployment of its 46 existing systems, alongside progress in Advanced Systems and Robotics (ASR) development.

Google’s Future On The Brink: Chrome Breakup & Search Data Sharing Loom Large!

By Baptista Research

  • Alphabet’s Google, long synonymous with internet search, now stands at the edge of a seismic antitrust reckoning that could redefine the modern tech landscape.
  • In a landmark case, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta is preparing to issue a ruling that may compel Google to divest its Chrome browser and share its vast troves of search data with competitors.
  • The Department of Justice argues that Google’s $26 billion in payments to be the default search engine on devices from Apple and Samsung effectively blocked competition, suppressing rivals like Microsoft’s Bing and DuckDuckGo. With AI now supercharging Google’s search capabilities, regulators see an urgent need to level the playing field.

HubSpot Inc.: Diversification of Lead Generation Channels to Sustain Growth & Client Acquisition Momentum Across Varying Digital Environments!

By Baptista Research

  • HubSpot’s Q2 2025 results delivered notable performance indicators, with various positive and challenging elements shaping the company’s current trajectory and future prospects.
  • The output presents a balanced investment perspective rooted in these nuanced details.
  • Positively, HubSpot reports an 18% year-over-year increase in revenue when adjusted for constant currency fluctuations, an uptick from the prior quarter.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Japan: Sony Financial Holdings, Honda Motor Co Ltd (Adr), TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?
  • Honda Motor Fights Back in China With EVs & Competitive Pricing Power; Too Little Too Late?
  • Recent Stock Price Rise May Be Due to Expectation for Greater Shareholder Returns Rather than Growth


[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?

By Travis Lundy

  • Sony Financial Group (perhaps 8729 JP) will be spun off from SONY on 29 September 2025. The nominal share price will be “low” – likely 4-6% of Sony’s price.
  • Index treatment is largely known with the exception of a market cap trigger to stay in or get the boot from one major global index provider’s set of large-midcap indices.
  • There is a buyback to come which will offset global active manager “I don’t want this” overhang. There are technical trades to do here too but overall I am positive.

Honda Motor Fights Back in China With EVs & Competitive Pricing Power; Too Little Too Late?

By Baptista Research

  • Honda Motor Company Limited’s recent financial results for the first fiscal quarter of 2025 and forecasts for the entire year reveal various factors influencing the company’s performance.
  • The operating profit for Q1 was JPY 244.1 billion, a significant decline compared to the same period last year, impacted by several nonrecurring expenses related to electric vehicles (EVs) and tariffs.
  • Despite challenges, notably in the automobile segment with operating losses, the company revised its full-year forecast upward, anticipating an operating profit of JPY 700 billion — a JPY 200 billion increase from previous projections.

Recent Stock Price Rise May Be Due to Expectation for Greater Shareholder Returns Rather than Growth

By Aki Matsumoto

  • P/B was highly correlated with P/E, so it’ll be effective for individual companies to announce/implement measures to increase EPS or profits in order to attract the attention of overseas investors.
  • From April 2022 to June 2025, overseas investors have been focusing on companies with significant potential for shareholder returns, as the TOPIX has the highest correlation with BPS.
  • The recent rise in stock prices may be due to expectations for increased shareholder returns rather than growth expectations, as EPS and BPS have risen while P/B and P/E haven’t.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ESG: Recent Stock Price Rise May Be Due to Expectation for Greater Shareholder Returns Rather than Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Recent Stock Price Rise May Be Due to Expectation for Greater Shareholder Returns Rather than Growth


Recent Stock Price Rise May Be Due to Expectation for Greater Shareholder Returns Rather than Growth

By Aki Matsumoto

  • P/B was highly correlated with P/E, so it’ll be effective for individual companies to announce/implement measures to increase EPS or profits in order to attract the attention of overseas investors.
  • From April 2022 to June 2025, overseas investors have been focusing on companies with significant potential for shareholder returns, as the TOPIX has the highest correlation with BPS.
  • The recent rise in stock prices may be due to expectations for increased shareholder returns rather than growth expectations, as EPS and BPS have risen while P/B and P/E haven’t.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Most Read: Pop Mart, Sanrio, Swiggy, Dongfeng Motor, Giant Biogene, S&P/ASX 200, Samsung Biologics , Horizon Robotics, Sony Financial Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25
  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow
  • Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
  • Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes
  • S&P/ASX 200: Profit Targets After Sep-25 Rebalance Methodology Finalized
  • Biologics Spinco Filing: Posts Far More Aggressive Post-Listing Share Swap Lock-Up Than Expected
  • Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics
  • [Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?


Hang Seng Indexes: Announcement Tomorrow; Potential Changes & Updated Flows

By Brian Freitas


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.
  • BayCurrent Consulting‘s PAF will double, Fast Retailing‘s CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP)
  • Sanrio (8136 JP)‘s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for Sep25

By Brian Freitas

  • Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 5 September.
  • We highlight 6 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. With the index committee entitled to a lot of discretion, there will be differences.
  • CATL completes 3 months of listing just prior to the review meeting date and is a dark horse candidate, though the committee could let the stock season for another quarter.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 13 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 18.23bn (US$209m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • The adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 months and there has been noticeable outperformance in the last couple of weeks.

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
  • The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price. 
  • The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative. 

Hang Seng Biotech Index Rebalance: 1 Add & 21 Deletes as Methodology Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 add and 21 deletions for the Hang Seng Biotech Index (HSHKBIO Index) at the September rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 11.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$1.77bn (US$226m).
  • The deletes have underperformed the HSHKBIO Index since the start of the year with the gap opening up over the last two months following the announcement of the methodology change.

S&P/ASX 200: Profit Targets After Sep-25 Rebalance Methodology Finalized

By Nico Rosti

  • As reported by Brian Freitas , 2 days ago S&P DJI confirmed that the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented at the September 25 rebalance. Details here.
  • The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is currently OVERBOUGHT according to our models: the index reached an 83% probability of reversal at the intraweek high (9025). Incoming pullback.
  • The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally (short-term forecast), but could also pull back this week, checkour modelkey-supports.

Biologics Spinco Filing: Posts Far More Aggressive Post-Listing Share Swap Lock-Up Than Expected

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX’s prelim review forced Biologics into tough commitments: no share swaps or carve-out IPOs for three years, effectively blocking any Samsung C&T stake sell-down and overlapping-listing risks.
  • FSS appears satisfied with Biologics’ aggressive commitments, but may push for more—most likely a lock-up from Samsung C&T preventing share sales in both parent and spinco for a set period.
  • Trading setup remains short Samsung C&T; recent Life bill chatter is noise. Samsung governance reform is low-priority, and Biologics’ aggressive spinco lock-ups reinforce C&T as the near-term underperformer.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance: 3 Changes; Big FAF Increase for Horizon Robotics

By Brian Freitas

  • There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the September rebalance. 
  • Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 10.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$818m). There are a bunch of stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • There is a huge FAF increase for Horizon Robotics and that will bring passive buying from the HSTECH trackers too. The stock is being added to a global index on Tuesday.

[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?

By Travis Lundy

  • Sony Financial Group (perhaps 8729 JP) will be spun off from SONY on 29 September 2025. The nominal share price will be “low” – likely 4-6% of Sony’s price.
  • Index treatment is largely known with the exception of a market cap trigger to stay in or get the boot from one major global index provider’s set of large-midcap indices.
  • There is a buyback to come which will offset global active manager “I don’t want this” overhang. There are technical trades to do here too but overall I am positive.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Utilities: Atmos Energy, Nrg Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Atmos Energy: An Analysis of its Recent Strategic Planning & Major Growth Drivers!
  • NRG Energy: Will The LS Power Acquisition Be A Game Changer?


Atmos Energy: An Analysis of its Recent Strategic Planning & Major Growth Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • Atmos Energy Corporation, a prominent player in the U.S. natural gas sector, recently shared its fiscal 2025 thirdquarter results, presenting a mixed picture of both positive strides and challenges.
  • The company reported a yearto-date net income of $1 billion, translating to $6.40 per diluted share and adjusted their annual earnings per share guidance to a range of $7.35 to $7.45, reflecting operational achievements and forward-looking adjustments.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

NRG Energy: Will The LS Power Acquisition Be A Game Changer?

By Baptista Research

  • NRG Energy’s latest earnings conveyed a balanced outlook reflecting its recent performance and future strategic directions.
  • In the second quarter of 2025, NRG Energy reported solid financial performance, with an adjusted earnings per share of $1.73, marking an 8% growth year-over-year once normalized for asset sales and retirements.
  • The adjusted earnings per share for the first half stood at $4.42, a 48% increase on the same basis from the previous year.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars