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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: US Inflation Skips Several Months and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • US Inflation Skips Several Months
  • UK Jobs Suggest Summer Stabilisation
  • Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis
  • CX Daily: Trump’s Tariff-by-Tweet Tactics Are Pushing Global Trade Into Perpetual Uncertainty
  • India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI’s Renewed (Mild) Policy Error
  • Lee Jae-Myung to Meet Trump: Impact on North Korea Economic Reconciliation Stocks
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Industrial Activity (June 2025)
  • RBA Cuts as Productivity Concerns Grow


US Inflation Skips Several Months

By Phil Rush

  • July’s US inflation print reversed all of the increase built in from tariffs over the past several months, despite matching expectations prevailing into the release.
  • Core goods inflation eased slightly, suggesting ongoing corporate success in avoiding the tariff shock. But service inflation is stuck too high to be consistent with the target.
  • Anti-avoidance measures and belated pass-through will drive further rises. We doubt they will be as severe as many fear, yet still not create much space to cut rates.

UK Jobs Suggest Summer Stabilisation

By Phil Rush

  • Unemployment broke a four-month streak of increases at 4.66%, with favourable cohort effects risking a fall soon. Payrolls may also be revised to grow again from July.
  • The structural hit from tax increases is matched by the cumulative fall in payrolls so far. Fundamental explanations for its divergence from the LFS aren’t supported yet.
  • Ongoing resilience in wage growth stokes unit labour cost pressures alongside taxes that are beyond the target. We still expect the MPC to resist cutting rates again.

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Analyzing Asian markets’ long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.
  • We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.
  • An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t always do so.

CX Daily: Trump’s Tariff-by-Tweet Tactics Are Pushing Global Trade Into Perpetual Uncertainty

By Caixin Global

  • Trump’s tariff-by-tweet tactics are pushing global trade into perpetual uncertainty
  • President Donald Trump’s trade policy has entered a new, chaotic phase, where structured negotiations give way to abrupt threats and legally nonbinding agreements that have left global commerce in a state of constant tension.
  • After several delays, Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” took effect on Aug. 7

India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI’s Renewed (Mild) Policy Error

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Headline CPI inflation eased to 1.55%YoY in Jul’25, implying that the real repo rate was +3.95%, the highest in 6.5 years (and versus +2.19% in Jan’25 before rate cutting began). 
  • The RBI is behind the curve, and will need to cut the repo rate another 75bp by Dec’25 in order to adhere to its 2-6% inflation target. 
  • Vegetable and food deflation will persist until Oct’25, thereby ensuring 2.8% average CPI inflation in FY26. Countering Trump tariffs with faster INR depreciation also argues for steady rate cuts. 

Lee Jae-Myung to Meet Trump: Impact on North Korea Economic Reconciliation Stocks

By Douglas Kim

  • It was reported today that the new South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung will meet US President Trump on 25 August in Washington DC.
  • In this insight, we discuss in particular how the meeting between Lee and Trump could lead to some outperformance of the North Korean economic reconciliation stocks. 
  • We provide a list of 10 South Korean companies that are beneficiaries of increased economic reconciliation with North Korea. These 10 stocks are up on average 109% YTD. 

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Industrial Activity (June 2025)

By Actinver

  • In June, industrial activity registered a slight contraction of -0.1% MoM, breaking the growth streak of April and May.
  • The manufacturing sector showed resilience, while construction remained stable.
  • The observed figure came in below our estimate of 0.3% MoM and the 0.2% MoM expected by the consensus. 

RBA Cuts as Productivity Concerns Grow

By Heteronomics AI

  • The RBA cut rates by 25bp to 3.60%, as expected, in the third reduction of 2025, with unanimous board support following July’s surprise 6-3 hold pending inflation data.
  • The central bank downgraded its productivity growth assumption to 0.7% from 1.0%, lowering medium-term GDP forecasts and signalling structural economic challenges ahead.
  • The Governor signals that a “couple more” cuts are likely, with the cash rate path expected around 3.0% by 2026, while maintaining a data-dependent approach to future policy decisions.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief United States: Micron Technology, ACM Research, First Solar Inc, Cms Energy Corp, BTCS , Builders Firstsource, Emcor Group Inc, Edison International, APi Group, Consumer Portfolio Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Nanya July Revenue Soars 31% MoM As Micron Revises Current Quarter Guide Up >5%
  • [ACMR(ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Review]: 2Q25 Review: Missing Two Quarters but We Still Love It
  • First Solar Raises International Module Guidance – But Is the Risk Worth the Reward?
  • CMS Energy: New Data Center Agreement, Load Growth Opportunities & Other Major Drivers!
  • BTCS, Inc: CEO Discusses Ethereum-First Business and the US GENUIS Act’s Impact
  • Builders FirstSource Set to Surge if Mortgage Rates Drop – What Else Could Propel Their Future Growth?
  • EMCOR Group: Leveraging Prefabrication Power To Push For High-Value Construction Projects!
  • Edison International: How Are They Tackling Energy Affordability With Bold Customer-Centric Innovations!
  • APi Group Corporation: Riding A Strong Backlog & Global Growth to Offset Cost Headwinds!
  • CPSS: 2Q25 Earnings Review


Nanya July Revenue Soars 31% MoM As Micron Revises Current Quarter Guide Up >5%

By William Keating

  • Nanya last week announced that revenues for the month of July amounted to NT$5.3 billion, an increase of 31.4% MoM, and an increase of 95% YoY,
  • Micron this week revised upwards its guidance for the current quarter with a roughly $500 million increase in revenue, attributable primarily price increases for DDR5
  • Customisation of Micron’s HBM4E base logic die is transforming their key customer relationships from commodity vendor to strategic ASIC design-like partner. That’s good for Micron…   

[ACMR(ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Review]: 2Q25 Review: Missing Two Quarters but We Still Love It

By Eric Wen

  • ACMR reported C2Q25 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (14%), (35%) and (17%) vs. our estimate, and (3.9%), (16%) and (9.9%) vs. consensus. 
  • However, company maintained full year revenue guidance of US$850-950 unchanged and raised long term revenue target by 33% to US$4bn;
  • We keep rating and TP unchanged. ACMR is one of our TOP BUY’s.

First Solar Raises International Module Guidance – But Is the Risk Worth the Reward?

By Baptista Research

  • First Solar’s second-quarter results for 2025 showcase both achievements and challenges.
  • The company reported module sales of 3.6 gigawatts, surpassing previous forecasts, and earnings per share of $3.18, exceeding guidance.
  • This reflects an effective operational performance, with 4.2 gigawatts produced during the quarter, including 2.4 gigawatts from U.S. facilities, which highlights the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act 2022 and related domestic policies.

CMS Energy: New Data Center Agreement, Load Growth Opportunities & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • CMS Energy Corporation showcased a solid performance for the second quarter of 2025, marked by a blend of strategic advancements and financial achievements, alongside some challenges and areas for cautious monitoring.
  • Here is an analysis of both positive and negative aspects from their recent earnings disclosure.
  • On the positive side, CMS Energy has secured a new agreement with a data center that could expand its load by up to 1 gigawatt.

BTCS, Inc: CEO Discusses Ethereum-First Business and the US GENUIS Act’s Impact

By Water Tower Research

  • Allen highlighted BTCS’ focus on Ethereum and building on top of the Ethereum network.
  • The recent passage of the US GENIUS Act has propelled Ethereum and stablecoins into the forefront of the cryptocurrency world.
  • BTCS, the oldest public crypto company, has focused on being an Ethereum-first blockchain infrastructure company. For the last five years, it has been accumulating Ethereum as a byproduct of its operations.

Builders FirstSource Set to Surge if Mortgage Rates Drop – What Else Could Propel Their Future Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Builders FirstSource operates within a dynamic and challenging market environment in the construction industry.
  • In its second quarter of 2025, the company has faced some notable financial and operational challenges, yet also showed resilience and strategic forward-thinking.
  • Their performance presentation outlines both areas of strength and concern that potential investors should consider.

EMCOR Group: Leveraging Prefabrication Power To Push For High-Value Construction Projects!

By Baptista Research

  • EMCOR Group reported a robust performance for the second quarter of 2025, marked by significant revenue growth and strong operating margins.
  • The company achieved a record $4.3 billion in consolidated revenues, representing a 17.4% increase compared to the same period last year.
  • This growth was driven by a combination of organic expansion and strategic acquisitions, notably Miller Electric, which contributed $330.3 million to the overall revenue.

Edison International: How Are They Tackling Energy Affordability With Bold Customer-Centric Innovations!

By Baptista Research

  • Edison International’s Q2 2025 financial results reveal a complex interplay of challenges and advancements.
  • The company reported a decline in core earnings per share to $0.97 from $1.23 the previous year.
  • This decline is attributed largely to the fact that a final decision has not yet been received on Southern California Edison’s (SCE) 2025 general rate case (GRC), leading them to rely on 2024 authorized levels for booking revenues, which will be trued-up upon final resolution.

APi Group Corporation: Riding A Strong Backlog & Global Growth to Offset Cost Headwinds!

By Baptista Research

  • APi Group Corporation delivered robust second-quarter 2025 financial results, showcasing strong revenue growth and strategic advancements across its segments.
  • The company experienced solid financial performance, driven by effective execution of its strategic initiatives, yet faced specific challenges that need consideration in an investment analysis.
  • On the positive side, APi Group reported an impressive 15% year-over-year increase in net revenues, reaching $2 billion for the second quarter.

CPSS: 2Q25 Earnings Review

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Key 2Q25 takeaways include: 1) loan origination volumes remain strong, with favorable lead indicators around steady demand trends, increasing throughput from the company’s pass-through partnership with Ally Financial, improving funding rates, and as newer salespeople continue to season 2) CPSS’s ABS volumes have remained consistently strong ($400+ million for each of the last five securitizations), while related cost of funds have continued to trend lower – a powerful combination from an earnings power perspective 3) we look for NCOs to continue to trend lower reflecting responsible underwriting, portfolio remixing, and improving recovery rates and 4) while we prefer to err on the side of caution, we note our 2026 EPS forecast jumps from $1.85 to $3.17 (70%+ accretion) if we layer in a 4.5% cost of funds (consistent with the company’s long-term average) for next year.
  • Granted, lower interest expenses will take time to flow through the P&L, though we think our back-of-the-envelope math reinforces the considerable leverage in the model, as interest expense normalizes.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Wynn Macau – Proposed Issuance Of USD 500 Mn 8.5NC3 Notes


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • UST yield movements were muted yesterday, amid an absence of macro news and ahead of the CPI data release today.
  • The yields on the 2Y and 10Y UST were unchanged at 3.77% and 4.29%, respectively.
  • Equities retreated, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declining 0.3% to 6,373 and 21,385, respectively. 

Wynn Macau – Proposed Issuance Of USD 500 Mn 8.5NC3 Notes

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Wynn Macau is proposing to issue USD 500 mn 8.5NC3 senior unsecured Reg-S/144A notes.
  • The company aims to use the proceeds to repay outstanding debt, including the RCF and/or existing bonds.
  • The notes are rated BB- by S&P and Fitch, in line with Wynn Macau’s issuer-level ratings.

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Daily Brief Industrials: SK Square , CoreCivic , U-Haul Holding , Yamabiko Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup
  • CXW: Strong 2Q25 Reflects Rising Utilization, Expected to Continue, Operating Leverage
  • UHAL: U-Haul Reports 1Q FY2025 Financial Results. Revenues were again above expectations
  • UHAL: U-Haul Reports 1Q FY2026 Financial Results. Revenues were again above expectations
  • Yamabiko Corp (6250 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update


Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hunting the reversion point for Square-Hynix price ratio amid local buzz: need clear pro-business tax signals and Hynix’s downtrend to continue despite today’s bounce.
  • Tax tweak likely turns neutral despite gov’s cautious tone today. Hynix’s bounce faces headwinds from supply ramp and yield issues, so fresh rally odds remain slim.
  • Focus on hunting SK Square vs. Hynix price ratio reversion, pairing it with Samsung Long/Hynix Short for a strong short-term trade setup to ride the trend.

CXW: Strong 2Q25 Reflects Rising Utilization, Expected to Continue, Operating Leverage

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • CXW’s adjusted EPS of $0.36 beat our/consensus forecast significantly, primarily reflecting higher populations at its facilities (54k in 2Q25 vs 51.5k in 2Q24) and higher average per diem rates combined with operating leverage and cost efficiencies.
  • We believe CXW’s modern facilities & long-term experience will continue to lead to new contracts & that with liquidity of ~$347m & strong cash flow, CXW is well-positioned to continue growth initiatives and maintain other capital allocation activities including share buybacks (3.9m shares in 1H25).

UHAL: U-Haul Reports 1Q FY2025 Financial Results. Revenues were again above expectations

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • U-Haul Holding Company is the parent company of U-Haul International, the world’s largest consumer truck and trailer rental company.
  • U-Haul is also the third largest self-storage operator in North America.
  • Management continues to expand capacity in the self-storage segment and U-Box.

UHAL: U-Haul Reports 1Q FY2026 Financial Results. Revenues were again above expectations

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • U-Haul Holding Company is the parent company of U-Haul International, the world’s largest consumer truck and trailer rental company.
  • U-Haul is also the third largest self-storage operator in North America.
  • Management continues to expand capacity in the self-storage segment and U-Box.

Yamabiko Corp (6250 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased to JPY91.3bn (+5.7% YoY), driven by OPE segment growth, reaching 54.7% of full-year forecast.
  • Operating profit rose 3.1% YoY to JPY11.7bn, while recurring profit fell 14.9% YoY due to foreign exchange losses.
  • Net income attributable to owners decreased 25.3% YoY to JPY7.5bn, impacted by income tax adjustments and yen appreciation.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JX Advanced Metals, SICC, LG Chem Ltd, SKC Co Ltd, TMC the metals co, Directa Plus, VAALCO Energy, Dynacor Group , HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., Infinity Natural Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Passive Buying in the Next 6 Weeks
  • SICC A/H Listing – Needs a Very Deep Discount
  • LG Chem: Flurry of Asset Sales Raises the Probability of A Partial Sale of LG Energy Solution
  • SKC: Plans to Issue EB Worth 125 Billion Won
  • The Metals Company — Capital markets event adds positive colour
  • Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 04/08/2025
  • Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Strong quarter on all fronts
  • DNG: Q2 Results Benefit from Gold Price; Growth Expected in 2026
  • HELLENiQ ENERGY — Operationally excellent, offset by crude prices
  • Infinity Natural Resources (INR) Six Month Summary: Energy Sector Weakness Weighs on Stock Post-IPO


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Passive Buying in the Next 6 Weeks

By Brian Freitas

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) listed in March and did not get Fast Entry to global indices since a large part of the IPO was allotted to domestic retail investors.
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will be added to one global index this month and could be added to the other global index in September.
  • The stock is trading higher following the better than forecast results announced last week. The index inclusions could take the stock higher in the short-term.

SICC A/H Listing – Needs a Very Deep Discount

By Sumeet Singh

  • SICC (688234 CH) , a manufacturer of high-quality SiC substrates, aims to raise up to US$260m in its H-share listing.
  • In terms of market share, as per Frost & Sullivan, based on 2024 sales, its market share was at 16.7%.
  • We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

LG Chem: Flurry of Asset Sales Raises the Probability of A Partial Sale of LG Energy Solution

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past three months, LG Chem has announced two asset sales worth 1.6 trillion won including dermal filler and water filter businesses. 
  • Due to worsening balance sheet and need to raise additional capital, there is an increasing probability of LG Chem selling a partial stake in LGES in the next 6-12 months.
  • Our NAV valuation of LG Chem suggests implied NAV per share of 414,325 won, which is 49% higher than current levels.

SKC: Plans to Issue EB Worth 125 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • On 11 August, SKC Co Ltd (011790 KS) announced that it will issue exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 125 billion won.
  • The exchange price is 114,714 won, which is a 14% premium to the reference stock price calculated based on the market price.
  • We are Negative on SKC’s EB issue of 125 billion won which is likely to put a negative sentiment on its share price.

The Metals Company — Capital markets event adds positive colour

By Edison Investment Research

The Metals Company’s (TMC’s) application for an exploitation licence through the US legislative framework provides the potential to accelerate the group’s plans and management now expects commercial operations to commence in Q327. The release of a technical report summary (TRS) of the pre-feasibility study (PFS) for the NORI-D block provides further granularity, particularly on the anticipated economics. The capital markets event provided additional context and insights into TMC’s long-term strategic direction and future potential


Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 04/08/2025

By Hybridan

  • Cobra Resources 2.60p £20.63m (COBR.L) The mineral exploration and development Company advancing a Rare Earth Element (REE) discovery at its Boland Project in South Australia announced initial results from re-analysis of historical, uraniumfocused rotary mud drilling from a recently acquired tenement (EL 6742) that covers over 750km square of the prospective Yaninee Palaeochannel system.
  • Results indicate the presence of a REE system with characteristics reflective of Boland on the Narlaby Palaeochannel 10-20km to the northeast.
  • This significantly increases the scale of the ionic REE system within the Pidinga Formation amenable to lowcost, low disturbance In Situ Recovery. 

Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Strong quarter on all fronts

By Auctus Advisors

  • 2Q25 WI production averaged 21,654 boe/d, near the top end of the guidance range (20–22.1 mboe/d).
  • Gabon production was particularly strong at 8,563 bbl/d (guidance of 7.8–8.6 mbbl/d), driven by continued flow from the 4H well at Ebouri, which remains ~1,000 bbl/d (gross).
  • Despite high H₂S concentrations, chemical treatment has proven effective.

DNG: Q2 Results Benefit from Gold Price; Growth Expected in 2026

By Atrium Research

  • DNG reported Q2 financial results that were mixed relative to our expectations, missing on production results and beating on financials.
  • Q2 revenue was $79.9M compared to our estimate of $78.6M and Q2 OCF (before WC) was $4.2M compared to our estimate of $4.0M.
  • Management has updated its annual guidance to reflect ore supply headwinds seen in Q2.

HELLENiQ ENERGY — Operationally excellent, offset by crude prices

By Edison Investment Research

HELLENiQ ENERGY delivered a resilient Q225 performance despite lower oil prices and the planned maintenance at the Elefsina refinery. Group sales fell 25.7% y-o-y to €2,433m, with reported EBITDA down 38.5% to €112m and adjusted EBITDA 4.7% lower at €221m. The relatively modest decline in adjusted EBITDA reflected higher output from the Aspropyrgos and Thessaloniki plants, stronger realised refining margins, improved domestic demand and a record international performance, offsetting the impact of the turnaround and a weaker petrochemicals performance. Adjusted net income was broadly flat at €72m (-1.4% y-o-y), while reported net income turned negative due to a significant decline in crude prices.


Infinity Natural Resources (INR) Six Month Summary: Energy Sector Weakness Weighs on Stock Post-IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Infinity Natural Resources (INR US)  came to market on January 31st pricing 13.25 million shares at $20.00 and opening at $22.16 for an 11.3% first-trade gain.
  • After peaking early in its first week, INR has experienced steady downward pressure. July was particularly brutal, with the stock declining 18%—its worst monthly performance since listing.
  • Infinity Natural Resources managed weakness from a broken IPO from its sector, Venture Global (VG). Six months later the sector winds have not calmed down.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: SK Telecom, Hyundai Autoever , Intel Corp, Tuas Ltd, Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Mobvoi , iFAST, Forum Engineering Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Telecom (017670 KS): Increasing Foreign Room & Passive Buying
  • [Quiddity Index Aug25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs, 6 DELs, Two Recommended Trades
  • Intel CEO Heads To DC To Save His Job As Former CEO Calls His Leading Edge Strategy A Joke
  • Tuas Ltd Placement: Cheap Acquisition Funded by Expensive Currency
  • What’s Trump After in Lip-Bu Tan’s Oval Office Meeting?
  • Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 11 – August 15
  • SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush
  • Mobvoi Inc. Revenue From AIGC Solutions Continues To Post Hyper Growth, TicNote Debuted in April
  • IFAST Corporation Limited: Undervalued for Its Prospects
  • Forum Engineering Inc (7088 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update


SK Telecom (017670 KS): Increasing Foreign Room & Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign room in SK Telecom (017670 KS) is over 21% now and increasing as foreign investors sell stock.
  • Further foreign selling could take foreign room past 25% and that will result in passive inflows for the stock. Timing is dependent on when the 25% threshold is crossed.
  • SK Telecom has underperformed its peers over the last 3 months and that has shrunk its valuation premium. Watch for a further increase in foreign room for an entry point.

[Quiddity Index Aug25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs, 6 DELs, Two Recommended Trades

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • We expect up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs for the December-2025 index rebal based on the latest available data. Same count as a month ago, but 5/12 name changes.
  • We have new charts available for all expected ADDs/DELs showing a variety of data we think worthwhile in terms of judging trade opportunity and risk. And two recommended trades.

Intel CEO Heads To DC To Save His Job As Former CEO Calls His Leading Edge Strategy A Joke

By William Keating

  • Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan is reportedly headed to Washington today to meet with the US Administration and clear up any misunderstandings about his past investments in China etc.
  • Meanwhile, former CEO Craig Barrett published his third opinion piece about Intel’s future and calls LBT’s strategy of not investing further in 14A without customer support a joke
  • It’s challenging to deal with the US Administration from a position of strength. It’s a whole different ball game when both the CEO & the company are in crisis mode…

Tuas Ltd Placement: Cheap Acquisition Funded by Expensive Currency

By Nicholas Tan

  • Tuas Ltd (TUA AU)  is looking to raise around US$239m in its fully underwritten Australian placement.
  • The company will use the proceeds to partially fund the acquisition of Singaporean digital network operator M1. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

What’s Trump After in Lip-Bu Tan’s Oval Office Meeting?

By Raghav Vashisht

  • Political scrutiny and perception issues form a tense backdrop ahead of Tan’s Oval Office meeting.
  • Strategic rifts over investment pace, 14A development, and fab build-outs are at the heart of the discussion.
  • The meeting’s outcome may hinge on whether Tan can align Intel’s roadmap with Trump’s manufacturing agenda.

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 11 – August 15

By Nico Rosti


SoftBank (9984 JP): Earnings Beat and the Missing Volatility Crush

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context:SoftBank’s (9984 JP) Q1 results on 7 August delivered a return to profitability and earnings beat, fueling one of the stock’s biggest post-results rallies in 15 years.
  • Highlight: Shares jumped 10.4% on 8 August and nearly 20% week-on-week, with implied volatility staying elevated above 40% despite the surge.
  • Why Read: Review price action and options market response, showing how SoftBank’s post-earnings volatility pattern echoes past announcements. Serves as a documented reference for the next earnings event.

Mobvoi Inc. Revenue From AIGC Solutions Continues To Post Hyper Growth, TicNote Debuted in April

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Mobvoi Inc., a Google-backed provider of AIGC software solutions and TicWatch maker, will announce interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2025, soon.
  • The AI firm currently adjusts its business strategy, shifting to AIGC business model from traditional project-based revenue generating model.
  • In April 2025, Mobvoi unveiled TicNote, a compact AI-powered voice recorder. It’s a separate device from smartphone, which gathered significant attention from media and users. 

IFAST Corporation Limited: Undervalued for Its Prospects

By GEMS Research – Aletheia Capital

  • We initiated coverage on iFAST Corporation Limited (iFAST) a week ago.
  • Though stock has risen 21% since our note, we see a further 20% upside.
  • The market appears to be missing iFast’ s value in terms of P/AUM and EV/Revenue, in light of the AUM growth prospects. 2Q PAT was ahead of consensus expectations.

Forum Engineering Inc (7088 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased 8.2% YoY to JPY9.2bn; operating profit rose 1.5% YoY to JPY1.3bn.
  • Cognavi Staffing saw a 5.2% YoY increase in utilized engineers; hourly staffing rate rose 4.6% YoY.
  • Cognavi India recorded JPY9mn revenue; operating loss was JPY81mn due to upfront investment.

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Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Lifenet Insurance Company, Assura PLC, China Merchants Bank H, Bullish US, Edelweiss Financial Services, Miami International Holdings, Target Healthcare REIT PLC, Greentown China, J Trust Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades
  • [Quiddity Index] JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2025 – Final Results
  • Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025):  Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues
  • Bullish US LLC (BLSH): IPO Range and Size Increased, Next Digital Asset Moonshot on Deck
  • The Beat Ideas: Edelweiss 2.0 – Unlocking Value Through Deleveraging and Strategic Listings
  • Miami International Holdings (MIAX): Financial Marketplace Specialist Sees Revenues Spiking into IPO
  • Target Healthcare REIT — Strong close to FY25
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update


Why We’re Eyeing KRX’s Sep 29 KCMC Event for Dividend Momentum Trades

By Sanghyun Park

  • KCMC 2025 will likely reveal fresh, unpriced stimulus details, potentially sparking a price rally like last year’s 2% KOSPI 200 jump on the value-up ETF rollout.
  • The key wildcard at KCMC 2025 is dividends—shifting from Yoon’s Japan-style ROE grind to a Taiwan-style push for bigger shareholder payouts.
  • With Sept 29 approaching, dividend policy buzz may drive price moves—smart to prep dividend momentum trades to front-run this catalyst.

[Quiddity Index] JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2025 – Final Results

By Travis Lundy

  • On Thursday 7 August, the TSE/Nikkei announced the changes for the JPX Nikkei 400 28 August rebalance. A few surprises, but given there is a nebulous qualitative overlay, that’s expected.
  • 39 were added. 34 deleted. We got 63 of 73 actual changes correct, achieving hit rates of 96%, 83%, and 44% for our High/Medium/Low Conviction Leaderboard predictions, respectively. 
  • We see US$7.3bn of flows, two way. There should be another $3bn+ of flows on the 26th and 28th.

Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • PHP’s offer has gained momentum, with 8.82% acceptances, offering a +2.13% gross spread, but at a discount to EPRA NTA. The share component introduces long-term upside potential.
  • KKR’s offer remains the more attractive option for immediate liquidity, offering a +3.79% gross spread with an estimated 46.1% annualized return, but needs to secure more acceptances by August 12.
  • The Takeover Panel auction remains a key driver, with higher bids likely in a competitive scenario. The probability-weighted target price (TP) for Assura is 50.81p, reflecting potential upside from an auction or bid revision.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Aug 2025):  Premium Hs Unwind, Again. Beautiful Skew Flavour Continues

By Travis Lundy

  • AH premia down, bouncing back. “Beautiful Skew” continues generally, but curve skew less pronounced. Average AH moves remain volatile – often the sign of significant distribution changes.
  • The Quiddity Portfolio is now smaller, less concentrated, and the net H vs A bias is MUCH smaller. Alpha continues, predicated on beautiful skew. But pair vol is very high. 
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Bullish US LLC (BLSH): IPO Range and Size Increased, Next Digital Asset Moonshot on Deck

By IPO Boutique

  • The global digital asset platform that provides market infrastructure and information services increased its price range and shares being offered on Monday morning.
  • Looking at the prospectus, there is a $200 million anchor order from Ark Investment and BlackRock.
  • The Bullish IPO is looking to ride the tailwinds from the regulatory wins in the digital asset space as well as the success of recent IPOs.

The Beat Ideas: Edelweiss 2.0 – Unlocking Value Through Deleveraging and Strategic Listings

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Edelweiss plans a INR 1,500–2,000 crore IPO of EAAA and a 25–30% stake sale in its mutual fund arm to accelerate deleveraging.
  • These transactions could meaningfully reduce corporate debt from INR 6,325 crore, strengthen the balance sheet, and unlock shareholder value.
  • Successful execution improves capital efficiency, supports high-margin business growth, and enhances upside potential, reinforcing the 56% target price appreciation case.

Miami International Holdings (MIAX): Financial Marketplace Specialist Sees Revenues Spiking into IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Miami International Holdings is offering 15 million shares at a $19-$21 range which equates to a valuation of $1.5b-$1.7b.
  • In the first half of 2025 the adjusted revenue was $197m or 56% above the $126m in 1H 2024.
  • As of August, they have built out all the technology pieces they need without adding head-count and now are in execution mode.

Target Healthcare REIT — Strong close to FY25

By Edison Investment Research

Target Healthcare REIT’s Q425 update shows indexed rent reviews continuing to drive increased earnings and property values, underpinning growing DPS. Q425 NAV total return was a strong 2.9%, taking the annual total to 9.0%. We will review our estimates when the FY25 results are published in detail in September, but continue to expect rental growth, a full-year contribution from development completions and asset management to drive further growth.


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • UST yields rose on Friday, in a continuation of Thursday’s increase following the weak 30Y notes auction.
  • In addition, there were no macro catalysts, ahead of Tuesday’s CPI data release (which may alter market expectations for the rate cuts currently priced in).
  • The yield on the 2Y UST rose 3 bps to 3.76%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 3 bps at 4.28%. 

J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Operating revenue declined by JPY4.6bn YoY to JPY60.7bn, with decreases in South Korea, Mongolia, and Real Estate.
  • Operating profit increased by JPY2.6bn YoY to JPY4.6bn, driven by gains in Financial and Investment Businesses.
  • Profit attributable to owners of parent fell to JPY1.4bn due to foreign exchange losses from yen appreciation.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A, Earth Science Tech, Ligand Pharmaceuticals, Nipro Corp, Nurexone Biologic, Shanghai Conant Optical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) (600129 CH) – Investors Are Betting on the Merger with China TCM
  • ETST: F1Q26 Earnings – Slight EPS Miss Setting the Stage for Growth
  • LGND: Getting In Tune with MedTech
  • Nipro Corp (8086 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • NRXBF: Company Treatment Outperforms Industry Standard
  • Conant Optical (2276 HKG): Growth Optics Sharp & Clear with Expanding Margins, Robust Sales in 1H25


Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) (600129 CH) – Investors Are Betting on the Merger with China TCM

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The current channel inventory digestion has been ongoing for nearly a year. If the terminal sales data in 25Q3 improves, it is expected to support the revenue recovery in 25Q4.
  • China TCM and CNPGC had signed relevant agreement on the free transfer of equity. Investors think this is paving the way for the future integration of China TCM and Taiji.
  • Investors have reignited interest in betting on China TCM’s privatization and merger with Taiji .According to Taiji, CNPGC will still fulfill its commitment to resolving the issue of horizontal competition

ETST: F1Q26 Earnings – Slight EPS Miss Setting the Stage for Growth

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Key F1Q26 takeaways include: 1) the company recently completed the acquisitions of Las Villas Health Care, a “brick & mortar” healthcare practice, and DOConsultations.com, an online telemedicine platform, along with an 80% ownership stake in Magnefuse, LLC, a retail consumer company, thereby further diversifying ETST’s industry/business mix 2) ETST benefitted from a considerably broader revenue profile in F1Q26 reflecting incremental contributions across the company’s compounding pharmacy, telehealth, “brick and mortar” healthcare, and retail consumer segments, with favorable lead indicators around increasingly activating recently acquired assets, ongoing consolidation across the compounding pharmacy industry, and recently launched marketing initiatives and 3) senior officials are increasingly focused on extracting synergies and maximizing profitability driven by elevated gross margins, limited hiring needs, and progressively leveraging centralized corporate functions, thereby streamlining expenses across the portfolio.

LGND: Getting In Tune with MedTech

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Ligand Pharmaceuticals holds a portfolio of revenue, royalty & milestone generating assets that have been vetted by its internal investment team.
  • Ligand considers individual biopharmaceutical products, platforms, companies & income streams in its opportunity set.
  • It targets late-stage and commercial income-producing assets when making investments.

Nipro Corp (8086 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased by 4.5% YoY to JPY159.2bn, with operating profit rising 24.6% YoY, despite a 45.2% decline in recurring profit.
  • Pharmaceutical-Related business saw a 268.6% YoY surge in segment operating profit, driven by increased shipments and accounting treatment impacts.
  • The FY03/26 earnings forecast remains unchanged, with sales projected at JPY677.0bn, operating profit at JPY37.0bn, and net income at JPY13.0bn.

NRXBF: Company Treatment Outperforms Industry Standard

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • NurExone (OTC-NRXBF) is a preclinical stage biotech company that is developing a breakthrough treatment for spinal cord injuries that has the potential to dramatically improve lives.
  • The technology involved also has the potential to more efficiently get other treatments to the needed area.
  • The company announced independent study results that show its exosomes delivered more than twice the amount of wound-healing signals than the industry benchmark.

Conant Optical (2276 HKG): Growth Optics Sharp & Clear with Expanding Margins, Robust Sales in 1H25

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 1H25, Shanghai Conant Optical (2276 HK) reported revenue rise of 11% to RMB 1.1M buoyed by growth across segments like multifunctional lens (up 9%) and standardized lens (up 20%).
  • In 1H25, the company kept up with its consistency of expanding its gross margins period after period, as margin expanded from 39.2% in 1H24 to 41% in 1H25 (2024: 38.6%).
  • Shanghai Conant’s robust demand outlook, capacity expansion plans, R&D initiatives and margin strength offer a strong long term secular growth story.

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Daily Brief Industrials: SK Square , CoreCivic , U-Haul Holding , Yamabiko Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup
  • CXW: Strong 2Q25 Reflects Rising Utilization, Expected to Continue, Operating Leverage
  • UHAL: U-Haul Reports 1Q FY2025 Financial Results. Revenues were again above expectations
  • UHAL: U-Haul Reports 1Q FY2026 Financial Results. Revenues were again above expectations
  • Yamabiko Corp (6250 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update


Identifying the SK Square Vs. Hynix Price Ratio Reversion Alpha Setup

By Sanghyun Park

  • Hunting the reversion point for Square-Hynix price ratio amid local buzz: need clear pro-business tax signals and Hynix’s downtrend to continue despite today’s bounce.
  • Tax tweak likely turns neutral despite gov’s cautious tone today. Hynix’s bounce faces headwinds from supply ramp and yield issues, so fresh rally odds remain slim.
  • Focus on hunting SK Square vs. Hynix price ratio reversion, pairing it with Samsung Long/Hynix Short for a strong short-term trade setup to ride the trend.

CXW: Strong 2Q25 Reflects Rising Utilization, Expected to Continue, Operating Leverage

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • CXW’s adjusted EPS of $0.36 beat our/consensus forecast significantly, primarily reflecting higher populations at its facilities (54k in 2Q25 vs 51.5k in 2Q24) and higher average per diem rates combined with operating leverage and cost efficiencies.
  • We believe CXW’s modern facilities & long-term experience will continue to lead to new contracts & that with liquidity of ~$347m & strong cash flow, CXW is well-positioned to continue growth initiatives and maintain other capital allocation activities including share buybacks (3.9m shares in 1H25).

UHAL: U-Haul Reports 1Q FY2025 Financial Results. Revenues were again above expectations

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • U-Haul Holding Company is the parent company of U-Haul International, the world’s largest consumer truck and trailer rental company.
  • U-Haul is also the third largest self-storage operator in North America.
  • Management continues to expand capacity in the self-storage segment and U-Box.

UHAL: U-Haul Reports 1Q FY2026 Financial Results. Revenues were again above expectations

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • U-Haul Holding Company is the parent company of U-Haul International, the world’s largest consumer truck and trailer rental company.
  • U-Haul is also the third largest self-storage operator in North America.
  • Management continues to expand capacity in the self-storage segment and U-Box.

Yamabiko Corp (6250 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased to JPY91.3bn (+5.7% YoY), driven by OPE segment growth, reaching 54.7% of full-year forecast.
  • Operating profit rose 3.1% YoY to JPY11.7bn, while recurring profit fell 14.9% YoY due to foreign exchange losses.
  • Net income attributable to owners decreased 25.3% YoY to JPY7.5bn, impacted by income tax adjustments and yen appreciation.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Ashimori Industry, Ola Electric, Kolon Mobility Group, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle Ltd Ltd (BJL), Yomeishu Seizo, Tata Motors, Kalyan Jewellers, CyberAgent Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book
  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September
  • Kolon Mobility (450140 KS)’s Delisting Offer
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH
  • Bluestone Jewellery IPO – Moving from Online to Offline. Thoughts on Valuation
  • Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
  • Closure of Short Call on Tata Motors
  • Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) | The Capital Sinkhole
  • CyberAgent: Newly Released Games Drive Growth with an Upward Revision to Guidance
  • To Companies that Adopt DOE: It’s Good to Consider ROE, but Are They Falling into Short-Termism?


[Japan M&A] Toyoda Gosei Buys Out Affiliate Ashimori Industry at 1.000x Mar25 Book

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) is buying out its own equity affiliate Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) at a near-all-time high price of ¥4,140/share.
  • It’s not a great price, but it is just over 1x book after writedowns this past quarter. It basically requires cross-holders and half a retail to tender. 
  • But this autoparts business is a strong grower, and has no EV risk. And its non-autoparts business is more interesting. The “fair” multiples are low. But it’ll get done.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.

Kolon Mobility (450140 KS)’s Delisting Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Kolon Corp (002020 KS)(KC) is seeking to delist 75.23%-held Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS) (KM), an auto importer.
  • Via a dual approach, KC is offering ₩4,000 per KM common share and ₩5,950 per KM preferred share. Any untendered shares will be swapped into KC shares.
  • The tender offer period is from 8th August to 8th September, with payment on the 10th September. There is no minimum acceptance condition.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 8 Aug 2025); Big Swing Out of ETFs into TECH

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$16+bn a day this past 5-day week. A comedown from the previous week. Net buying OK at just over +US$550mm/day. One-third of the previous week.
  • Last week’s reco was Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) up 9.8% on the week, and H/A spread contracted 6.2%.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Bluestone Jewellery IPO – Moving from Online to Offline. Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bluestone Jewellery and Lifestyle (BJL) is planning to raise about US$176m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • BJL offers contemporary lifestyle diamond, gold, platinum, and studded jewellery under its flagship brand. It is a digital-first direct-to-consumer (DTC) brand.
  • We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • On 7 August, Bloomberg reported that Yomeishu Seizo (2540 JP) is considering going private and has received acquisition proposals from several investment funds. 
  • Privatisation is a neat solution for the Board to get rid of a potentially problematic activist shareholder, Yukihiro Nomura, the son-in-law of Yoshiaki Murakami.
  • PE interest is underpinned by Yomeishu’s net cash and significant real estate assets. However, the shares are up 63% YTD, which leaves little room for additional upside. Take profits.

Closure of Short Call on Tata Motors

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Post Q4FY25 results,we had presented our case for shorting Tata Motors in May 2025, anticipating a challenging quarter ahead.We now recommend closing the short position,with reasons explained in this insight
  • The company reported a very challenging Q1FY26, with JLR EBIT crashing to 4.0% (vs 8.9% YoY). The India passenger car business also faced similar pressure.
  • The only segment to deliver stable performance was the commercial vehicle division.

Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) | The Capital Sinkhole

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) Management paused INR 350-400 crore debt reduction after 90 days, now planning INR 2,700 crore capital consumption without clear justification.
  • Candere losses increased 5X while management admits e-commerce isn’t their strength, yet continues expanding with new regional brand initiatives.
  • Stock trades at 44x P/E NTM above 3-year average despite questionable capital allocation and non-quantifiable efficiency claims from management.

CyberAgent: Newly Released Games Drive Growth with an Upward Revision to Guidance

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 3QFY09/2025 results on Friday aftermarket. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates with an upward revision to full-year guidance.
  • Gaming segment has begun to see recovery driven by the strong performance of newly released game titles which have become a hit. There are several new titles up for release.
  • Though CA’s share price has moved up with recovery in games and improved profitability of AbemaTV, we think there is further upside.

To Companies that Adopt DOE: It’s Good to Consider ROE, but Are They Falling into Short-Termism?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • With many companies unable to increase their ROE, the company also intends to demonstrate its commitment to improving ROE by strengthening shareholder returns through the adoption of DOE.
  • The increase in the number of companies adopting DOE may be a reflection of the fact that many companies are forecasting lower profits this fiscal year.
  • Of course, returning excess cash on hand while considering ROE isn’t a bad thing, but it’s also a concern that few companies are taking steps to ensure medium-to-long-term growth.

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