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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, NIFTY Index, S&P 500 INDEX, Tether, Credit Corp, Chiba Kogyo Bank, Banco De Sabadell SA, HgCapital Trust, SES AI Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks
  • NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)
  • Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture
  • Stablecoin I: Mainstream Opportunities
  • Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Beats Momentum, 19% Return
  • Chiba Kogyo Bank (8337 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success
  • HgT — Public market volatility weighing on H125 return
  • SES AI Corp: 2Q25 In Line with Preannouncement; $11 Million Cash Usage and Net Cash of $229 Million


A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks

By Sanghyun Park

  • With new tax rules kicking in from FY2026, firms may hold back FY2025 dividends to front-load later, creating potential downside surprise purely from tax-driven deferral, not fundamentals.
  • If FY2025 payouts fall short, dividend names could go ex-div on inflated expectations, then trade heavy — setting up mispricing risk around year-end dividend capture trades.
  • This may weaken post-ex-div price rebounds, creating dividend trap risks and short-term mispricing that traders can exploit via shorts, dip buys, or dividend swap long-short strategies.

NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index has been falling for 5 straight weeks: it is extremely oversold, according to our model.
  • The index should rebound this week, or the next, in any case the downside should be limited at this point.
  • A rally could bring the index back to 25398, but we are witnessing a BEARISH pattern at the moment, so any rebound rally will be short-lived.

Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

By John Ley

  • Seasonal patterns shift in August, with weaker average returns and greater downside skew supporting a case for selective hedging.
  • Most markets are at or near 52-week highs, further strengthening the argument for protective positioning.
  • Unlike July’s consistent vol-selling setup, August presents a more mixed environment for volatility strategies.

Stablecoin I: Mainstream Opportunities

By Animoca Brands Research

  • Recent legislations in major economies have propelled the mainstream adoption of stablecoin. While offshore use of stablecoin has been centered around crypto trading and informal economies, we believe the regulated stablecoins present two key opportunities: “open-source digital wallets” for payments and “open clearing houses” for settlements.
  • Digital wallet payment solutions built around stablecoin have a much lower bar than building a web2 digital wallet company, in both technology and commercial terms.
  • In developed economies dominated by credit cards, stablecoins could drive a new wave of digital wallet adoption, potentially capturing significant market share.

Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Beats Momentum, 19% Return

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • This is a follow-up on the relative value trade between Credit Corp (CCP AU) and Magellan Financial (MFG AU), originally flagged due to a significant deviation in their price ratio.
  • Highlight: Credit Corp (CCP AU) surged 16.2% post-earnings, driving the pair to close with a 19.1% return in just 7 days.
  • Why Read: Demonstrates how mean-reversion setups can still outperform, even in the presence of strong momentum. A valuable Insight for relative value traders navigating trend-heavy environments.

Chiba Kogyo Bank (8337 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Consolidated ordinary income reached JPY15.8bn (+13.3% YoY), with ordinary profit at JPY3.9bn (+36.2% YoY).
  • Loan balance increased to JPY2.43tn (+2.2% YoY), with deposits at JPY3.08tn (+0.2% YoY).
  • Capital adequacy ratio improved to 9.30% non-consolidated, reflecting higher capital and reduced risk-weighted assets.

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.
  • Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.
  • Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.

HgT — Public market volatility weighing on H125 return

By Edison Investment Research

HgT’s muted -0.3% NAV total return (TR) in H125 (according to its preliminary trading update) was negatively affected by public market volatility that reduced HgT’s private portfolio valuations by 4pp. That said, it represents a NAV rebound in Q225 following the -2.0% TR in Q125. Last 12-month (LTM) revenue and EBITDA growth to end-May 2025 across HgT’s entire portfolio were both a robust 19%, translating to a 7pp positive effect on portfolio value. Minor headwinds came from fx changes and higher portfolio net debt (1pp NAV impact each). Gross realisation proceeds reached £165m (7% of opening NAV), which according to Hg compares favourably with peers in a challenging environment. Investments (including reinvestments) stood at £306m, or 12% of opening NAV.


SES AI Corp: 2Q25 In Line with Preannouncement; $11 Million Cash Usage and Net Cash of $229 Million

By Water Tower Research

  • SES AI, a leader in AI-powered battery research, announced 2Q25 revenue of $3.5 million, which was in line with its preannouncement.
  • SES’ 2Q25 gross margin came in at 74%, above its long-term gross margin range, as the manufacturing, software licenses, and services mix stabilizes.
  • The company also reiterated 2025 revenue guidance of $15-25 million.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): International Sale Still Not Out of Woods, Margin Improve Sequentially


Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): International Sale Still Not Out of Woods, Margin Improve Sequentially

By Tina Banerjee

  • Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) reported lower hospital revenue, down by 4% YoY to THB 6,104M in 2Q25 (down 5% in 1H25 to THB 12,125M).
  • Revenue contribution from international patients stayed at 64% with price competition impacting negatively amid volumes growth from markets like Middle east.
  • Maintaining stable margins with cost control would be key for the company amid revenue softness.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Technopro Holdings, Recruit Holdings, JSW Cement Limited, Airbus Group SE, Trane Technologies , Tokyu Construction, Nagase & Co Ltd, Nisshinbo Holdings, Oesterreichische Post Ag and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities
  • TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Tender Offer at JPY4,870
  • Recruit Holdings: 1Q Earnings Is No Surprise but More Downside Ahead
  • JSW Cement IPO: Reasonably Priced; Growth Momentum Not Concrete Enough To Sustain Valuation
  • Airbus SE: European Defense & Space Collaborations to Bolster Strategic Standing In The Market!
  • Trane Technologies: Racing Ahead in the Electrification Boom With Breakthrough Heating Portfolio!
  • Tokyu Construction (1720 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Nagase & Co Ltd (8012 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
  • Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 6 August (ABN Amro | Ahold Delhaize | Austrian Post)


[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities

By Travis Lundy

  • This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
  • PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
  • This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.

TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Tender Offer at JPY4,870

By Arun George

  • Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) announced a tender offer from Blackstone at JPY4,870, a 43.7% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY3,389 but at a slight discount to the last close.
  • While below the last close, Blackstone’s offer was a result of an auction process and was the highest binding offer. The offer also represents a pre-media rumour all-time high.
  • Surprisingly, Blackstone has not disclosed irrevocables. The Board has a neutral opinion. Nevertheless, a fair auction process suggests there will be limited opposition to the offer. 

Recruit Holdings: 1Q Earnings Is No Surprise but More Downside Ahead

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 1Q results on Tuesday after market. As expected, topline declined 2.5% YoY falling below consensus. Productivity enhancements supported EBITDA growth.
  • With gradual cooling of labour markets, the HR Tech segment’s top line growth has declined and Recruit does not expect the segment to see strong growth in FY03/2026E.
  • Recruit’s share price dropped 4.4% during today’s trade and with further weakening of job markets, we think there is further opportunity to gain on the Short side.

JSW Cement IPO: Reasonably Priced; Growth Momentum Not Concrete Enough To Sustain Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • JSW Cement has filed for IPO to raise up to ₹36B. The company plans to sell 244.9M shares at between ₹139 and ₹147 per share.
  • JSW Cement is one of the mid-tier cement manufacturing companies with operations across southern, western, and eastern regions of India. It has an installed grinding capacity of 20.6 MMTPA.
  • The IPO offer price range appears to be a more reasonable for the company considering the fact that it lags behind on many fronts when compared to its peers.

Airbus SE: European Defense & Space Collaborations to Bolster Strategic Standing In The Market!

By Baptista Research

  • Airbus presented its H1 2025 earnings, showcasing mixed results amid ongoing industry and supply chain challenges.
  • In terms of performance, Airbus recorded an EBIT adjusted of €2.2 billion, an improvement from the €1.4 billion recorded in H1 2024.
  • Revenue increased slightly by 3% to €29.6 billion, reflecting higher contributions from divisions and stronger service volumes, partially offset by a decrease in commercial aircraft deliveries.

Trane Technologies: Racing Ahead in the Electrification Boom With Breakthrough Heating Portfolio!

By Baptista Research

  • Trane Technologies’ second quarter of 2025 results reflect a combination of robust growth drivers and challenges that provide a nuanced picture for potential investors.
  • Positively, the company announced record bookings and revenues, with adjusted operating margins expanding by 90 basis points and adjusted EPS growing by 18%.
  • A key highlight was Trane’s Americas Commercial HVAC business, which saw bookings increase by over 20%, driven particularly by a strong demand for Applied Solutions, which grew by over 60% year-over-year.

Tokyu Construction (1720 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue reached JPY71.9bn, a 30.2% YoY increase, with operating profit at JPY2.2bn, reversing a prior loss.
  • Parent-only revenue was JPY68.9bn, with gross profit at JPY6.8bn, driven by completed construction revenue and margins.
  • Parent orders totaled JPY112.6bn, with Building Construction orders up 392.8% YoY, Civil Engineering orders down 27.7% YoY.

Nagase & Co Ltd (8012 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY03/26, sales were JPY237.3bn (-0.8% YoY), gross profit JPY44.3bn (+0.4% YoY), operating profit JPY10.2bn (-4.5% YoY).
  • Cost classification changes at Prinova Group affected SG&A and cost of sales, impacting gross profit figures retrospectively.
  • Segment performance varied: automotive demand weakened, semiconductor materials sales rose, and pharmaceutical raw materials sales increased.

Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP): 1H FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company posted sales of JPY254.7bn (+6.1% YoY) and operating profit of JPY18.4bn (+174.3% YoY), with increased profits in Wireless and Communications and Real Estate.
  • The FY12/25 forecast anticipates sales of JPY506.0bn (+2.3% YoY) and operating profit of JPY19.7bn (+18.8% YoY), with a revised net income forecast of JPY11.0bn (+7.0% YoY).
  • Structural reform in Wireless and Communications is prioritized, with an early retirement program and extraordinary losses impacting net income.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 6 August (ABN Amro | Ahold Delhaize | Austrian Post)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • ABN Amro | mixed results; EUR 250m share buyback • Ahold Delhaize | e-commerce reaches profitability; reiterates FY25 guidance • Austrian Post | expands last mile partnership with Temu to other countries

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Daily Brief Australia: Infomedia Ltd, Credit Corp, Champion Iron, Carnegie Clean Energy and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Clean Deal
  • Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Binding Proposal at A$1.72
  • Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Beats Momentum, 19% Return
  • Can Champion Iron Deliver On Growth Projects?
  • CWGYF: Is Wave Energy Finally Ready For Prime Time?


Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Clean Deal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), a automotive software firm, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with PE-outfit TPG.
  • TPG is offering A$1.72/share, a 30% premium to last close. The transaction requires FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of Infomedia’s boards.
  • As discussed in Infomedia (IFM AU): Now A Three-Way Hunt, Infomedia fielded various indicative Offers (including TA Associates/Viburnum, Battery Ventures, and Solera) in 2022, none of which went the distance.

Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Binding Proposal at A$1.72

By Arun George

  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with TPG Inc (TPG US) at A$1.72, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price of A$1.32 (5 August).
  • The scheme is conditional on FIRB and shareholder approval. Shareholders should be supportive, given a reasonable offer and Infomedia’s history of non-binding bids. 
  • At the last close and for an end-of-November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/7.5%.

Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Beats Momentum, 19% Return

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • This is a follow-up on the relative value trade between Credit Corp (CCP AU) and Magellan Financial (MFG AU), originally flagged due to a significant deviation in their price ratio.
  • Highlight: Credit Corp (CCP AU) surged 16.2% post-earnings, driving the pair to close with a 19.1% return in just 7 days.
  • Why Read: Demonstrates how mean-reversion setups can still outperform, even in the presence of strong momentum. A valuable Insight for relative value traders navigating trend-heavy environments.

Can Champion Iron Deliver On Growth Projects?

By FNArena

  • Rising costs and weak pricing weighed on first quarter earnings for Champion Iron, but development projects remain on course to support growth.
  • -Champion Iron’s first quarter production and earnings disappoint -Record sales, but rising costs and lower realised pricing -Capex projects on track, liquidity expected to improve -Improving balance sheet, but still sensitive to commodity prices

CWGYF: Is Wave Energy Finally Ready For Prime Time?

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, people have looked to the sea as a potential source of nearly unlimited, sustainable energy that rolls by our coasts every day in the form of wave energy.
  • As early as the 19th century, inventors began devising plans to harness this energy to power early mechanical devices inside mills, water pumps, and later, even small electrical systems.
  • However, despite the tantalizing appeal of this resource, wave energy has yet to be fully developed into a viable commercial alternative to mainstream renewable energy sources like wind and solar.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Soft99 Corp, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H, Cosmax Inc, Eternal, Lenskart Solutions, JD.com , Altria Group, Guming Holdings, Nhk Spring and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough
  • Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up
  • Korean Government Confirms Visa-Free Entry of Group Tourists from China to South Korea
  • Eternal (Zomato) Placement – Second Clean-Up by Antfin This Week, Will Lift the Overhang
  • Lenskart Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The MBO Is Light but Likely Done
  • JD.com Sets Sights on Europe as It Moves to Buy Ceconomy in $2.4 Billion Deal
  • Altria Group: A Tale Of Growing Oral Tobacco Profits—Is on! the Secret Weapon for Future Growth?- Major Drivers
  • Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money
  • Nhk Spring (5991 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update


[Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough

By Travis Lundy

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) is the owner/operator of a set of ubiquitous brands in aftermarket autocare. Anything to do with washing, cleaning, etc. 
  • The company was founded 70 years ago, and the CEO is 54yrs old. Smells like succession planning. 
  • This deal is a nice premium, but it is too light. The operating assets with consistent growth and 20% OPMs are being sold at <0.9x book. That’s bad.

Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up

By Brian Freitas

  • The fall in Hisense Home Appliances Group (921 HK)‘s stock price over the last year puts it at risk of deletion from a global index in August.
  • Short interest and positioning have picked up in the stock over the last couple of weeks and there should be short covering against the passive selling.
  • The AH premium for Hisense Home Appliances Group could increase over the near-term as positioning continues ahead of the passive selling.

Korean Government Confirms Visa-Free Entry of Group Tourists from China to South Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • On 6 August, the Korean government confirmed visa-free entry of group tourists from China to South Korea.
  • The new policy will allow the group tourists from China to visit South Korea on a visa-free basis from 29 September 2025 to end of June 2026.
  • We provide a list of top 20 companies in Korea that are key beneficiaries of the no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.

Eternal (Zomato) Placement – Second Clean-Up by Antfin This Week, Will Lift the Overhang

By Akshat Shah

  • Antfin (Netherlands) Holding B.V. is looking to raise up to US$612m via a cleanup of its remaining ~2% stake in Eternal (ETERNAL IN) .
  • Antfin has been selling off parts of its ~14% stake in the firm since the IPO. The company last sold a 2% stake to raise upto US$400m in Aug 2024.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Lenskart Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Lenskart Solutions (0370405Z IN) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Avendus, Axis, Citi, Kotak, MS and Intensive Fiscal Services.
  • Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.
  • LSL’s largest market is India, and it was the largest seller of prescription eyeglasses in terms of volumes sold in India in FY25, according to the Redseer Report.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): The MBO Is Light but Likely Done

By Arun George

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) has recommended an MBO from Mr. Hideaki Tanaka (CEO) at JPY2,465, a 52.2% premium to the last close.
  • While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light as it implies a P/B of 0.93x and is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • Barring the emergence of an activist, a benign shareholder register and the irrevocables suggest that this is a done deal.

JD.com Sets Sights on Europe as It Moves to Buy Ceconomy in $2.4 Billion Deal

By Caixin Global

  • JD.com is making its boldest push yet into the European market. On Thursday, the Chinese e commerce giant announced plans to acquire all outstanding shares in Germany’s CeconomyAG, the parent company of electronics retailers MediaMarkt and Saturn, in a cash offer valuing the deal at about 2.2 billion euros ($2.5 billion).
  • Through its wholly owned subsidiary Jingdong Holding Germany GmbH, JD.com is offering 4.60 euros per share, a 43% premium to Ceconomy’s three month volume weighted average price and 23% above its July 23 close, before news of the potential takeover emerged.
  • Shares rose to 4.41 euros Thursday, up 1.26%. Upon completion, Ceconomy would be privatized and delisted.

Altria Group: A Tale Of Growing Oral Tobacco Profits—Is on! the Secret Weapon for Future Growth?- Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Altria Group’s recent earnings reveals a mixed set of results that convey both the strengths and challenges faced by the company.
  • In the second quarter of 2025, Altria continued to benefit from its strong core businesses, particularly within the oral tobacco product segment.
  • On! nicotine pouches were a significant driver of this segment’s growth, reporting a 26.5% increase in volume and a retail share rise to 8.7%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point gain year-over-year.

Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

By Sumeet Singh

  • Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.
  • After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Nhk Spring (5991 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 3.2% YoY, while operating profit and recurring profit declined by 9.2% and 37.4% YoY, respectively.
  • Automotive Seating and Automotive Suspension Spring segments posted lower revenue, while DDS and Precision Springs & Components segments recorded growth.
  • Global HDD production declined YoY, but demand for high-capacity HDDs for data centers increased, boosting HDD suspensions.

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Most Read: CG Power and Industrial Solutions, Horizon Robotics, Genting Bhd, Alibaba, Lg Innotek, Technopro Holdings, Soft99 Corp, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Infomedia Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
  • Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August
  • Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
  • Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch
  • [Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities
  • [Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough
  • Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up
  • A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks
  • Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Clean Deal


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

By Brian Freitas

  • Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.
  • The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
  • Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

By Brian Freitas

  • There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
  • Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
  • Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
  • There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
  • The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.

Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

By Sumeet Singh

  • 2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
  • Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
  • In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.

Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 3 stocks in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in August and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
  • Short interest has increased in all 3 stocks since the resumption of short selling. Cumulative excess volume is higher in all stocks over the last couple of months.
  • Given the increase in shorts and positioning, there could be short covering in two of the three stocks. The third could still drop over the next couple of weeks.

[Japan M&A] ¥4,870/Sh Blackstone TOB for Technopro (6028 JP) – Watch the Parameters and Modalities

By Travis Lundy

  • This was signaled in May, somewhat confirmed in July, now done. Blackstone buys Technopro at ¥4,870/share which is ~14x EV/EBITDA for next year.
  • PE Firms have been scouring the Japanese market to buy companies. The METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines are super-helpful in that regard. This will squeeze the market over time.
  • This takeover price is not quite as full as it could have been, and there are some parameters and modalities to this which are worth looking at. Parameters and Modalities.

[Japan M&A] 99Soft MBO at 52% Premium Is Too Light But A Bump May Be Tough

By Travis Lundy

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) is the owner/operator of a set of ubiquitous brands in aftermarket autocare. Anything to do with washing, cleaning, etc. 
  • The company was founded 70 years ago, and the CEO is 54yrs old. Smells like succession planning. 
  • This deal is a nice premium, but it is too light. The operating assets with consistent growth and 20% OPMs are being sold at <0.9x book. That’s bad.

Hisense Home Appliances (921 HK): Global Index Deletion Coming Up

By Brian Freitas

  • The fall in Hisense Home Appliances Group (921 HK)‘s stock price over the last year puts it at risk of deletion from a global index in August.
  • Short interest and positioning have picked up in the stock over the last couple of weeks and there should be short covering against the passive selling.
  • The AH premium for Hisense Home Appliances Group could increase over the near-term as positioning continues ahead of the passive selling.

A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks

By Sanghyun Park

  • With new tax rules kicking in from FY2026, firms may hold back FY2025 dividends to front-load later, creating potential downside surprise purely from tax-driven deferral, not fundamentals.
  • If FY2025 payouts fall short, dividend names could go ex-div on inflated expectations, then trade heavy — setting up mispricing risk around year-end dividend capture trades.
  • This may weaken post-ex-div price rebounds, creating dividend trap risks and short-term mispricing that traders can exploit via shorts, dip buys, or dividend swap long-short strategies.

Infomedia (IFM AU): TPG’s Clean Deal

By David Blennerhassett

  • Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), a automotive software firm, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with PE-outfit TPG.
  • TPG is offering A$1.72/share, a 30% premium to last close. The transaction requires FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of Infomedia’s boards.
  • As discussed in Infomedia (IFM AU): Now A Three-Way Hunt, Infomedia fielded various indicative Offers (including TA Associates/Viburnum, Battery Ventures, and Solera) in 2022, none of which went the distance.

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Daily Brief India: Eternal, JSW Cement Limited, Lenskart Solutions, Kopran Ltd, NIFTY Index, Adani Green Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Eternal (Zomato) Placement – Second Clean-Up by Antfin This Week, Will Lift the Overhang
  • JSW Cement IPO: Reasonably Priced; Growth Momentum Not Concrete Enough To Sustain Valuation
  • Lenskart Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • The Kopran Merger: From APIs to Diagnostics, A Blueprint for Healthcare Integration
  • NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Eternal (Zomato) Placement – Second Clean-Up by Antfin This Week, Will Lift the Overhang

By Akshat Shah

  • Antfin (Netherlands) Holding B.V. is looking to raise up to US$612m via a cleanup of its remaining ~2% stake in Eternal (ETERNAL IN) .
  • Antfin has been selling off parts of its ~14% stake in the firm since the IPO. The company last sold a 2% stake to raise upto US$400m in Aug 2024.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

JSW Cement IPO: Reasonably Priced; Growth Momentum Not Concrete Enough To Sustain Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • JSW Cement has filed for IPO to raise up to ₹36B. The company plans to sell 244.9M shares at between ₹139 and ₹147 per share.
  • JSW Cement is one of the mid-tier cement manufacturing companies with operations across southern, western, and eastern regions of India. It has an installed grinding capacity of 20.6 MMTPA.
  • The IPO offer price range appears to be a more reasonable for the company considering the fact that it lags behind on many fronts when compared to its peers.

Lenskart Solutions Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Lenskart Solutions (0370405Z IN) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Avendus, Axis, Citi, Kotak, MS and Intensive Fiscal Services.
  • Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.
  • LSL’s largest market is India, and it was the largest seller of prescription eyeglasses in terms of volumes sold in India in FY25, according to the Redseer Report.

The Kopran Merger: From APIs to Diagnostics, A Blueprint for Healthcare Integration

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Kopran Limited has approved the merger of its diagnostics arm, Kopran Laboratories, aiming to become a fully integrated pharmaceutical and healthcare solutions provider. 
  • The merger diversifies Kopran’s revenue mix, enhances EBITDA margins with high-value consumables, and unlocks synergies across pharma and diagnostics distribution channels. 
  • Kopran transitions from a mid-scale exporter to a multi-vertical healthcare platform, with stronger earnings visibility, improved capital efficiency, and potential for valuation re-rating.

NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)

By Nico Rosti

  • The NIFTY Index has been falling for 5 straight weeks: it is extremely oversold, according to our model.
  • The index should rebound this week, or the next, in any case the downside should be limited at this point.
  • A rally could bring the index back to 25398, but we are witnessing a BEARISH pattern at the moment, so any rebound rally will be short-lived.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy
  • Front-end UST yields rose yesterday, following a soft auction of 3Y notes, as well as an unexpected increase in the prices component of the ISM services survey.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST increased 5 bps to 3.73%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.21%. Equities retreated, amid the weak ISM services data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Lg Innotek, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Cosmax Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch
  • A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks
  • Korean Government Confirms Visa-Free Entry of Group Tourists from China to South Korea


Korea: 3 Potential Index Deletions in August; Positioning Watch

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 3 stocks in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in August and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
  • Short interest has increased in all 3 stocks since the resumption of short selling. Cumulative excess volume is higher in all stocks over the last couple of months.
  • Given the increase in shorts and positioning, there could be short covering in two of the three stocks. The third could still drop over the next couple of weeks.

A Hidden Trading Angle from Dividend Tax Reform: Tax Timing Creates Dividend Trap Risks

By Sanghyun Park

  • With new tax rules kicking in from FY2026, firms may hold back FY2025 dividends to front-load later, creating potential downside surprise purely from tax-driven deferral, not fundamentals.
  • If FY2025 payouts fall short, dividend names could go ex-div on inflated expectations, then trade heavy — setting up mispricing risk around year-end dividend capture trades.
  • This may weaken post-ex-div price rebounds, creating dividend trap risks and short-term mispricing that traders can exploit via shorts, dip buys, or dividend swap long-short strategies.

Korean Government Confirms Visa-Free Entry of Group Tourists from China to South Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • On 6 August, the Korean government confirmed visa-free entry of group tourists from China to South Korea.
  • The new policy will allow the group tourists from China to visit South Korea on a visa-free basis from 29 September 2025 to end of June 2026.
  • We provide a list of top 20 companies in Korea that are key beneficiaries of the no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Rise Led by Apple’s Manufacturing Boost and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Rise Led by Apple’s Manufacturing Boost
  • China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview – Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?
  • Digital Assets – Cryptocurrencies: The Crypto Exchange Industry in Singapore
  • Japan Morning Connection: Trump Threatens 100% Chip Tariffs While Tim Cook Kisses the Ring
  • Japan Retail Sector Review 2025: Patchier Growth but Opportunities Within
  • SA Listed Property Review July 2025


Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Rise Led by Apple’s Manufacturing Boost

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks rose Wednesday as investors digested corporate earnings, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.7%.
  • Apple jumped 5% after the White House confirmed the company will boost domestic manufacturing investment by $100 billion
  • IHI reported net profit fell 38% year-on-year to 12 billion yen, the first decline in two years and about 8 billion yen below market expectations.


Digital Assets – Cryptocurrencies: The Crypto Exchange Industry in Singapore

By GEMS Research – Aletheia Capital

Singapore is rapidly cementing its status as a global center for digital asset innovation and regulation.

As of mid-2025, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has granted over 33 licenses to Digital Payment Token (DPT) service providers, establishing Singapore as one of the most stringently regulated crypto hubs worldwide.

This equity research report examines the regulatory landscape. It profiles the key players in the domestic crypto exchange market. It analyzes STI-listed companies with crypto exposure and evaluates the feasibility of crypto exchanges listing on the Singapore Exchange (SGX).


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Threatens 100% Chip Tariffs While Tim Cook Kisses the Ring

By Andrew Jackson

  • Chipmakers with existing fabs or plans for US expansion will be exempt from the tariffs as Trump pushes his onshoring agenda.
  • Intel, AMAT, GlobalFoundries are all higher afterhours which should ultimately bide well for JP SPE suppliers.
  • Power-Semi’s are increasingly important for AI which makes the WOLF/Renesas connection look increasingly attractive.

Japan Retail Sector Review 2025: Patchier Growth but Opportunities Within

By Michael Causton

  • Retail sales reached ¥165.37 trillion in FY2024-25, but growth slowed and lagged behind inflation for many retailers.
  • FMCG retailers remained dominant and market concentration increased, with top firms expanding through consolidation.
  • Consumers remain hesitant due to inflation, particularly in core categories like fresh food, hitting spending in discretionary categories like apparel.

SA Listed Property Review July 2025

By Garreth Elston

  • The SA listed property sector’s 4.38% total return in July was driven by specific corporate updates and events, not a broad market updraft.
  • The month was dominated by the battle for MAS plc. A bloc of institutional investors, holding over 17% of the company, requisitioned a second EGM to overhaul the board.
  • The month’s headline macro news came right at the end of the month, with a 25-basis point repo rate cut by the SARB.

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Daily Brief United States: Microsoft Corp, American Electric Power, Meta, S&P 500 INDEX, Qualcomm Inc, Tether, Trane Technologies , Nebius Group, OpenAI and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • How Microsoft Research Balances Exploration and Impact Globally with Doug Burger
  • American Electric Power (AEP): Regulatory & Legislative Developments As Significant Drivers For Future Performance!
  • Microsoft’s Cloud Tsunami: $46.7B Quarter
  • Meta’s Record Revenues, Soaring Stock & Utopian AI: Will Zuckerberg’s $31 Billion AI Bet Pay Off?
  • Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture
  • Qualcomm’s Personal AI Revolution—Prepping For A World Beyond Screens?
  • Stablecoin I: Mainstream Opportunities
  • Trane Technologies: Racing Ahead in the Electrification Boom With Breakthrough Heating Portfolio!
  • The “Nebius” Big Thing: The AI Stock You Want To Know Now
  • OpenAI, Wide Open: Why (And How) To Invest In The ChatGPT Maker


How Microsoft Research Balances Exploration and Impact Globally with Doug Burger

By Analyse Asia with Bernard Leong

  • Expansion of Microsoft Research to Singapore as a regional research and development frontier
  • Focus on AI research in Singapore, including foundational AI, embodied AI, and AI in health
  • Importance of tapping into local talent and culture for AI development

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


American Electric Power (AEP): Regulatory & Legislative Developments As Significant Drivers For Future Performance!

By Baptista Research

  • American Electric Power’s (AEP) second quarter of 2025 showcased several pivotal developments and a strong financial performance, indicative of both strategic progress and growth potential.
  • This summary encapsulates the earnings call highlights, offering a balanced view of the company’s current state and future prospects.
  • First, AEP reported a record-breaking second quarter with operating earnings of $1.43 per share, a notable increase from the previous year’s $1.25 per share.

Microsoft’s Cloud Tsunami: $46.7B Quarter

By Baptista Research

  • Microsoft reported a strong finish to fiscal year 2025, delivering financial results that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations and underscored its continued momentum in cloud and AI-driven services.
  • For the fiscal fourth quarter, Microsoft posted adjusted earnings of $3.65 per share on revenue of $76.4 billion, handily beating the consensus estimates of $3.37 per share on $73.9 billion in revenue.
  • This marked a notable improvement over the prior year’s fourth-quarter figures of $2.95 per share on $64.7 billion in revenue.

Meta’s Record Revenues, Soaring Stock & Utopian AI: Will Zuckerberg’s $31 Billion AI Bet Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Meta Platforms delivered a standout performance in the second quarter of 2025, with shares surging 12% to $779.70, just shy of its all-time high.
  • The company significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, reporting earnings per share of $7.14 versus the expected $5.88 and revenue of $47.5 billion, up 22% year-over-year.
  • This strong financial showing was driven by growth in daily users, ad impressions, and price-per-ad across Meta’s platforms.

Global Macro Outlook (Aug): Risk Builds Amid Uneven Macro Picture

By John Ley

  • Seasonal patterns shift in August, with weaker average returns and greater downside skew supporting a case for selective hedging.
  • Most markets are at or near 52-week highs, further strengthening the argument for protective positioning.
  • Unlike July’s consistent vol-selling setup, August presents a more mixed environment for volatility strategies.

Qualcomm’s Personal AI Revolution—Prepping For A World Beyond Screens?

By Baptista Research

  • Qualcomm recently reported its fiscal third-quarter 2025 results, delivering revenues of $10.4 billion and a nonGAAP EPS of $2.77, which were near the high end of guidance.
  • The company’s chipset business, QCT, recorded revenues of $9 billion, reflecting ongoing growth across automotive, IoT, and handset segments.
  • Notably, automotive and IoT revenues increased by 21% and 24% year-over-year, respectively, driven by Qualcomm’s strategy to diversify and expand its product offerings beyond mobile handsets.

Stablecoin I: Mainstream Opportunities

By Animoca Brands Research

  • Recent legislations in major economies have propelled the mainstream adoption of stablecoin. While offshore use of stablecoin has been centered around crypto trading and informal economies, we believe the regulated stablecoins present two key opportunities: “open-source digital wallets” for payments and “open clearing houses” for settlements.
  • Digital wallet payment solutions built around stablecoin have a much lower bar than building a web2 digital wallet company, in both technology and commercial terms.
  • In developed economies dominated by credit cards, stablecoins could drive a new wave of digital wallet adoption, potentially capturing significant market share.

Trane Technologies: Racing Ahead in the Electrification Boom With Breakthrough Heating Portfolio!

By Baptista Research

  • Trane Technologies’ second quarter of 2025 results reflect a combination of robust growth drivers and challenges that provide a nuanced picture for potential investors.
  • Positively, the company announced record bookings and revenues, with adjusted operating margins expanding by 90 basis points and adjusted EPS growing by 18%.
  • A key highlight was Trane’s Americas Commercial HVAC business, which saw bookings increase by over 20%, driven particularly by a strong demand for Applied Solutions, which grew by over 60% year-over-year.

The “Nebius” Big Thing: The AI Stock You Want To Know Now

By Finimize Research

  • Demand for AI compute has opened the door to a new kind of business: GPU-as-a-Service.  New kids on the block, Nebius and CoreWeave, are competing with the hyperscalers.
  • Nebius has gained a foothold in the rapidly growing AI data center market, and it’s eyeing up to $1 billion in recurring revenue by the end of 2025. 
  • The best comp is CoreWeave,  but Nebius’ balance sheet is much stronger, allowing it access to cheaper capital to help fund its growth.

OpenAI, Wide Open: Why (And How) To Invest In The ChatGPT Maker

By Finimize Research

  • OpenAI is one of the fastest-growing private companies ever, with an estimated $10 billion annual revenue run rate by mid-2025 – up 82% from the year before. 
  • Subscriptions and API fees have fueled OpenAI’s rocket-like trajectory, but they won’t get it to its ambitious goal of $174 billion in annual revenue by 2030. 
  • Investors slapped a $300 billion price tag on the firm earlier this year, with $500 billion now being touted. What’s it worth?

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