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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, Iljin Hysolus, Makita Corp, Aker Carbon Capture ASA, Elis SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control
  • Play the Timing Sweet Spot Between KOSPI 200 Rebal and Short Selling Coming Back into Play
  • Makita (6586) | Powering Up
  • Aker Carbon Capture (Acc:No) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024
  • Elis Sa (ELIS FP) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024


Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) announced that it would buy back shares in a Tender Offer and that its controlling “parent” would also sell shares to a private company.
  • The accretion is significant, and the shareholder structure changes significantly. It is not quite an Exedy-like situation though. The register changes but it doesn’t clear. 
  • But the backdrop is considerably different than the MTMP, and that means this smallcap is worth a closer look.

Play the Timing Sweet Spot Between KOSPI 200 Rebal and Short Selling Coming Back into Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • Short selling returns March 31, after 85% of the KOSPI 200’s rebalancing. Stocks set for removal will be prime short targets.
  • Stocks removed have solid liquidity, tight passive impact gaps between them, and with short selling restarting March 31, we could see intensified volume in the short basket.
  • With rebalance ahead, price action may start early. Market exposure means aggressive moves could happen before the end of March, so consider building futures positions before short selling resumes.

Makita (6586) | Powering Up

By Mark Chadwick

  • Margin recovery drives stock higher – Operating profit beat estimates, margins rebounded to 13.6%, and forex gains provided a boost despite weak sales.
  • European rebound offers upside – Makita, with 20% market share, is set to benefit from a forecasted 2025 construction sector recovery after two years of contraction.
  • Valuation remains attractive – With improving ROIC, inventory normalisation, and steady growth prospects, a DCF model suggests an 18% upside for the stock.

Aker Carbon Capture (Acc:No) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Aker Carbon Capture sold 80% of their business to SLB for 4.5Bn NOK in cash with potential performance-based considerations.
  • Aker is now left as a shell company with negative EV and a 20% stake in the combined carbon capture business.
  • Aker’s modular approach to carbon capture technologies has helped them become a leader in the industry with growing revenue and a strong backlog of projects.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Elis Sa (ELIS FP) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Elis is a top multi-service provider in Europe, offering textile, hygiene, and facility service solutions to commercial clients
  • The company’s revenue growth outpaces GDP, reflecting the trend towards outsourcing essential services
  • Elis has maintained consistent performance and achieved growth in free cash flow despite challenges like the COVID pandemic and financial crises, showing significant growth in revenue, EBITDA, and EPS since 2018, with an undervalued share price.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Vedanta Ltd, Natural Gas, Infinity Natural Resources, Halliburton Co, Chevron Corp, Goodluck India, Asahi Holdings, Calumet Specialty Products Par and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger
  • Emergency or policy? Unpacking Trump’s take on US energy and metals
  • Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO
  • [Earnings Review] Halliburton Q4 Performance Impacted by North America Weakness
  • [Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s Options Activity Reflects Market Caution Ahead of Q4 Earnings
  • [Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins to Weigh on Chevron’s Earnings
  • The Beat Ideas: Goodluck India Accelerating Margin Growth with Value-Added Products & Defence
  • Asahi Holdings (5857 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Calumet Inc (CLMT) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024


Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) plans a multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating its aluminum, zinc, oil and gas, steel, and other core operations into standalone entities.
  • This restructuring aims to eliminate conglomerate discount, foster specialized leadership, and attract fresh capital, potentially enhancing overall valuations and fueling long-term growth across diversified segments.
  • Despite governance concerns and cyclical commodity risks, pure-play listings could catalyze re-ratings, offering heightened returns but requiring vigilance on execution and corporate transparency.

Emergency or policy? Unpacking Trump’s take on US energy and metals

By Commodities Focus

  • Trump signed emergency declarations to address energy and minerals inadequacy in the US
  • Plans to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, pressure OPEC to lower prices
  • Unclear what powers these declarations unlock, potential impact on energy and metal projects

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • While this company is well-positioned in its sector and has a prudent growth strategy and balance-sheet flexibility, the short term “sector winds” are now blowing in a different direction.
  • Venture Global (VG) debuted last Friday with a major price cut and a more disappointing debut. 
  • Our sources state that the official message regarding the deal is that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed from long-only and energy-dedicated funds. 

[Earnings Review] Halliburton Q4 Performance Impacted by North America Weakness

By Suhas Reddy

  • Halliburton’s Q4 revenue fell by 2.3% YoY and missed estimates by 0.4% due to weakness in North America. However, its EPS beat estimates by 0.7%.
  • Completion & Production revenue fell 4.2% YoY due to reduced activity in North and Latin America. Drilling & Evaluation revenue grew 0.4% YoY driven by growth in the Middle East.
  • In Q4, Halliburton repurchased USD 309 million in stock and generated USD 1.1 billion in free cash flow. Full-year repurchases totalled USD 1.6 billion.

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s Options Activity Reflects Market Caution Ahead of Q4 Earnings

By Suhas Reddy

  • Chevron to report its Q4 earnings on 31/Jan, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually. For 2024 also, revenue and EPS are expected to drop.
  • As of 29/Jan, Chevron’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 21.12%, with an IV rank of 43.95% and an IV percentile of 75%.
  • Chevron’s OI by strike for the 31/ Jan expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 162.5, 165, and 167.5, while puts are prominent at strikes of 150, 152.5, and 155.

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins to Weigh on Chevron’s Earnings

By Suhas Reddy

  • Chevron’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 1.2% YoY and 38.8%, respectively. Similarly, its 2024 annual revenue and EPS are anticipated to fall by 2.5% and 22.5%.
  • Chevron expects restructuring and other charges to impact its Q4 2024 earnings by USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.5 billion.
  • Chevron set its 2025 organic capex at USD 14.5–15.5 billion and affiliate capex at USD 1.7–2.0 billion, marking a USD 2 billion decline from the previous year.

The Beat Ideas: Goodluck India Accelerating Margin Growth with Value-Added Products & Defence

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Goodluck India (GLIN IN) is expanding into high-value defense and precision tube segments, aiming to diversify beyond its low-margin steel products and capitalize on India’s growing domestic manufacturing push.
  • These strategic moves can enhance margins, reduce commodity price exposure, and capture rising demand from auto, defense, and infrastructure sectors, strengthening Goodluck’s long-term profitability.
  • Aiming for 2x revenue in next 3-4 years with margin expansion in all the segments apart from commodity segment. 

Asahi Holdings (5857 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased to JPY373.0bn (+67.0% YoY) and operating profit to JPY14.7bn (+85.6% YoY), driven by gold recovery.
  • Japan Waste Corporation’s operations are classified as discontinued, while Renatus Corporation’s equity method gains are included in profits.
  • Precious Metals business saw YoY growth in revenue and operating profit due to improved profitability and recovery volumes.

Calumet Inc (CLMT) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Calumet received a $1.44 billion conditional loan guarantee from the DOE for its MRL renewable fuel facility
  • Market has not fully recognized the potential value of this announcement
  • Analysts predict CLMT shares could triple to $60+ by mid-2025 due to upcoming events and potential monetization opportunities

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, Iljin Hysolus, Makita Corp, Aker Carbon Capture ASA, Elis SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control
  • Play the Timing Sweet Spot Between KOSPI 200 Rebal and Short Selling Coming Back into Play
  • Makita (6586) | Powering Up
  • Aker Carbon Capture (Acc:No) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024
  • Elis Sa (ELIS FP) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024


Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) announced that it would buy back shares in a Tender Offer and that its controlling “parent” would also sell shares to a private company.
  • The accretion is significant, and the shareholder structure changes significantly. It is not quite an Exedy-like situation though. The register changes but it doesn’t clear. 
  • But the backdrop is considerably different than the MTMP, and that means this smallcap is worth a closer look.

Play the Timing Sweet Spot Between KOSPI 200 Rebal and Short Selling Coming Back into Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • Short selling returns March 31, after 85% of the KOSPI 200’s rebalancing. Stocks set for removal will be prime short targets.
  • Stocks removed have solid liquidity, tight passive impact gaps between them, and with short selling restarting March 31, we could see intensified volume in the short basket.
  • With rebalance ahead, price action may start early. Market exposure means aggressive moves could happen before the end of March, so consider building futures positions before short selling resumes.

Makita (6586) | Powering Up

By Mark Chadwick

  • Margin recovery drives stock higher – Operating profit beat estimates, margins rebounded to 13.6%, and forex gains provided a boost despite weak sales.
  • European rebound offers upside – Makita, with 20% market share, is set to benefit from a forecasted 2025 construction sector recovery after two years of contraction.
  • Valuation remains attractive – With improving ROIC, inventory normalisation, and steady growth prospects, a DCF model suggests an 18% upside for the stock.

Aker Carbon Capture (Acc:No) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Aker Carbon Capture sold 80% of their business to SLB for 4.5Bn NOK in cash with potential performance-based considerations.
  • Aker is now left as a shell company with negative EV and a 20% stake in the combined carbon capture business.
  • Aker’s modular approach to carbon capture technologies has helped them become a leader in the industry with growing revenue and a strong backlog of projects.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Elis Sa (ELIS FP) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Elis is a top multi-service provider in Europe, offering textile, hygiene, and facility service solutions to commercial clients
  • The company’s revenue growth outpaces GDP, reflecting the trend towards outsourcing essential services
  • Elis has maintained consistent performance and achieved growth in free cash flow despite challenges like the COVID pandemic and financial crises, showing significant growth in revenue, EBITDA, and EPS since 2018, with an undervalued share price.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Dropsuite Ltd, DeepSeek, Sailpoint Technologies Holdings, SK Hynix, Zegona Communications, ASML Holding NV, Carta Holdings, Inc., Pca Corp, Alarm.Com Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s Binding Offer a Done Deal
  • Episode 102: Deeeeeepseeeeeeek!
  • SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26
  • The AI Model That Tanked the Stock Market
  • Did Hynix Meet Expectations ?
  • Zegona (ZEG LN) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 29 January (AkzoNobel | ASML Holding | | InPost)
  • Carta Holdings (3688 JP) – Q3 FOLLOW-UP
  • Pca Corp (9629 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Alarm.Com Holdings Inc (Alrm) (ALRM) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024


Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • On 28 January, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with NinjaOne at A$5.90 per share, a 34.1% premium to the undisturbed price of A$4.40 per share.
  • The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. The vote is low-risk as the largest shareholder has provided an irrevocable. 
  • The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close, for a 20 May payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.0%/10.3%.

Episode 102: Deeeeeepseeeeeeek!

By The Circuit

  • Deepseek, formerly a quantitative hedge fund, has transitioned to building foundational AI models, causing a stir in the tech community
  • Their recent paper on transformer LLM models has sparked interest and confusion, particularly regarding training and inference costs
  • Despite claims of training on a small pool of GPUs, it is speculated that Deep Seq has access to tens of thousands of GPUs, challenging traditional notions of cost and capabilities in AI research.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26

By Andrei Zakharov

  • SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.
  • The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.
  • I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.

The AI Model That Tanked the Stock Market

By Odd Lots

  • Market sees major losses in tech complex, catalyzed by introduction of Chinese AI model Deepseek
  • Concerns arise about cheap Chinese competitor impacting market heavily invested in AI companies
  • Zvi Moshevitz, AI expert, discusses Deepseek model’s training cost and optimization techniques

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Did Hynix Meet Expectations ?

By Ken S. Kim

  • As we hit Chinese New Year break,  we want to examine if Hynix’s earnings and investor call met investor expectations
  • 6 key questions going in and where we are post SK Hynix (000660 KS) reporting and before Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) reports early February
  • The consensus is that the key questions were not answered.  Well, not all answered and some remains to be seen. 

Zegona (ZEG LN) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Zegona is a special purpose vehicle in the telecom sector that owns Vodafone’s operations in Spain
  • The company has potential plans to monetize Vodafone Spain’s fiber assets and turnaround the underperforming business
  • Zegona could see a fivefold increase in stock value, presenting an opportunity for investors seeking high growth potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 29 January (AkzoNobel | ASML Holding | | InPost)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 4Q24 shows a mixed picture; some bright spots ahead • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 and long-term outlook / record quarterly FCF • InPost | AliExpress survey shows Polish shoppers are looking for ‘engaging experiences’

Carta Holdings (3688 JP) – Q3 FOLLOW-UP

By Sessa Investment Research

  • CARTA HOLDINGS (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q3 FY2024/12 results on November 13, 2024, which were in line with its upwardly revised forecasts disclosed with Q2 results.
  • The Company positioned FY2024/12 as the first year toward its sharp recovery following aggressive cost structure reforms in FY2023/12, and expects full- year operating profit to rise 53.7% YoY to JPY 2,000 mn as a signal to the start of its comeback.
  • Q4 is the Company’s busy season, and investors likely have a certain level of interest in where actual results come in.

Pca Corp (9629 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q3 FY03/25, the company reported revenue of JPY12.1bn, operating profit of JPY2.1bn, and net income of JPY1.4bn.
  • Revenue by product category showed cloud services increased 28.2% YoY, while conventional software decreased 53.3% YoY.
  • FY03/25 forecasts include revenue of JPY16.5bn, operating profit of JPY2.4bn, and a dividend of JPY83.00/share.

Alarm.Com Holdings Inc (Alrm) (ALRM) – Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Alarm.com has high dollar retention rates and is focused on diversifying revenue through growth initiatives, accounting for 30% of revenue and growing over 20% annually
  • The company has potential for improvement in EBITDA margins and could be a target for activists or a PE buyout due to its strong financial position
  • Founded in 2000 and incubated within MicroStrategy, Alarm.com has a history of innovation in the security products industry and is led by CEO Stephen Trundle

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Financials: Seoul Guarantee Insurance, Jafco Co Ltd, Krung Thai Bank Pub, Matsui Securities, Entrust Inc, Global Indemnity Group LLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Jafco- Continues to Perform
  • Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages
  • Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Entrust Inc (7191 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • GBLI: Global Indemnity Group reorganizes its business under a new project called Project Manifest. These moves will create a more efficient and lateral structure.


SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC’s lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024. 
  • Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO. 

Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 73.9% YoY to JPY25.4bn, with operating profit rising 149.6% YoY to JPY11.2bn.
  • Capital gains reached JPY10.9bn, with JPY7.6bn from IPO-related share sales and JPY3.4bn from unlisted shares.
  • Total investment executed in cumulative Q3 FY03/25 was JPY30.6bn, with JPY14.5bn for domestic VC investments.

Jafco- Continues to Perform

By Rikki Malik

  • The company has had good 2024 absolute and relative to Topix performance.
  • Will Jafco continue this winning streak into 2025 and beyond?
  • Results for the quarter ending December 2024 are encouraging with exit multiples increasing

Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

By Victor Galliano

  • Krung Thai remains our core value pick among the Thai banks driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering double-digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios
  • Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best ROE of the peer group, along with one of the best efficiency ratios versus its peers
  • Its share price performance has been strong, yet we believe that this positive momentum should continue as Krung Thai still has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx

Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Net operating revenue was JPY9.0bn, with a YoY increase of 4.5% and a QoQ decrease of 9.8%.
  • SG&A expenses rose to JPY5.4bn, up 6.8% YoY and 2.2% QoQ, with personnel expenses at JPY999mn.
  • Net trading profit reached JPY1.1bn, up 3.6% YoY and down 8.3% QoQ, primarily from FX transactions.

Entrust Inc (7191 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased 17.9% YoY to JPY7.8bn, driven by growth in rent guarantee services; operating profit rose 11.0% YoY.
  • Total contracts in force reached 475,000 (+4.0% YoY), with Guarantee business contracts increasing 20.7% YoY to 349,000.
  • Solution business revenue declined 14.5% YoY as customers switched to guarantee contracts, reducing contracts in force by 24.7% YoY.

GBLI: Global Indemnity Group reorganizes its business under a new project called Project Manifest. These moves will create a more efficient and lateral structure.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Global Indemnity Group, LLC, provides specialty and niche insurance products nationwide.
  • GBLI focuses on small market property and casualty business.
  • The company has made a concerted effort to reduce its property exposure.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Sigma Healthcare, Maze Therapeutics, Metsera, Novo Nordisk A/S, Lantheus Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks
  • Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approves CWG Merger
  • Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut
  • Is It Time to Go Long Novo Nordisk (NVO US)?
  • LNTH: Evergreen Acquisition Promotes Future Innovation


Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks

By Brian Freitas

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Chemist Warehouse (CWG) shareholders have approved the merger with 99.86% and 100% of the votes cast in favour.
  • The Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be implemented on 12 February, which is when the passive buying could commence.
  • Sigma Healthcare has continued to trade higher on a record margin and sales expansion for CWG and expected passive buying that could top A$3bn over the next few months.

Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors

By IPO Boutique

  • The company is performing an abbreviated four-day roadshow and has gained momentum with interest from sector-dedicated investors. 
  • According to our sources, the deal was considered oversubscribed at launch from a mix of new and existing investors.
  • Typically, the biotech IPOs that are eager to come out of the gates in January have fared overwhelmingly better than those that trickle out later in the year.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approves CWG Merger

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) announced that more than 99% of the shareholders cast vote in favor of the merger with CWG. The merger now remains subject to court approval.
  • The court hearing is scheduled on February 3, 2025. If the Court approves the merger, it is expected that implementation of the merger scheme will occur on February 12, 2025.
  • CWG continued healthy performance, with double-digit like-for-like retail network sales growth and 400bps EBIT margin expansion in H1FY25. We are bullish on the long-term growth prospect of the merged entity.

Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut

By IPO Boutique

  • The GLP-1 market has experienced a recent boom and Metsera is capitalizing on this with a well-times IPO.
  • According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with the books closing Wednesday at 4pm for a Friday debut.
  • The company is seeking a mega valuation of$1.8b if priced at the high-end of the range. An IPO valuation at these levels would put the company in “rare-company”.

Is It Time to Go Long Novo Nordisk (NVO US)?

By Avien Pillay

  • GLP-1s are “a solution” for obesity and not “the solution”. There are over 100 GLP-1s in development and this space could become very commoditised.
  • Its valuation has certainly become a lot more palatable, and Novo Nordisk is now trading on a FPE of 24.
  • Lilly’s Zepbound is the preferred GLP-1: Given the better tolerance, and superior results, Zepbound is chosen over Wegovy.

LNTH: Evergreen Acquisition Promotes Future Innovation

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Lantheus Holdings, Inc. (LNTH)

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Daily Brief Consumer: CyberAgent Inc, Ather Energy, Canon Marketing Japan, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV, Lands’ End Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • CyberAgent 1Q: Media Business Continues to Show Solid Growth
  • Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Outpaced by Rivals
  • Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update
  • BWMX: Snapping the Catalog; Ready for the New Year; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT
  • LE: Snapping the Catalog; Shift to Spring, Swimwear Begins; Reiterate Buy, PT


CyberAgent 1Q: Media Business Continues to Show Solid Growth

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 1QFY09/2025 results today. 1Q revenues beat consensus but reported OP fell below consensus due to weak gaming margins.
  • The key highlight of the quarter was the strong results of the Media business whose revenues saw strong growth with strengthened profitability.
  • Though game earnings were slightly weak during 1Q, we would not be too worried as app analysis data reveals that the segment is off to a strong start in 2QFY09/2025.

Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Outpaced by Rivals

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ather Energy is looking to raise about US$536m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP): Full-year FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased by 7.3% YoY to JPY653.9bn, driven by IT solutions and maintenance/operations services.
  • FY12/25 forecasts: Sales JPY680.0bn (+4.0% YoY), Operating profit JPY56.0bn (+5.4% YoY), Net income JPY39.5bn (+0.5% YoY).
  • IT solutions sales expected to grow YoY, with a 7% increase in SI services and 10% in outsourcing.

BWMX: Snapping the Catalog; Ready for the New Year; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the January catalog.
  • The catalog has continued to focus on driving overall newness, with SKU counts remaining near record highs.
  • with a combination of new products and returning favorites.

LE: Snapping the Catalog; Shift to Spring, Swimwear Begins; Reiterate Buy, PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End after reviewing the January catalog.
  • We believe, as the seasons begin to slowly switch from one company strength (outerwear) to another (swimwear), Lands’ End has continued to reduce overall discounting, focus even more on key fashion winners, become even more of a source for key outfits and looks, added to their technological and story telling resources and expand sales of higher margined licensed products.
  • As such, we believe customer shifts and a focus on higher margin product offerings remain fully on tap, and we believe 2025 is shaping up as another year of material progress for Lands’ End: we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.

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Most Read: Fast Retailing, NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation, NuScale Power , Vedanta Ltd, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, Iljin Hysolus, Sigma Healthcare, Infinity Natural Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn
  • Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade
  • 3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)
  • Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete
  • Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger
  • Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control
  • Play the Timing Sweet Spot Between KOSPI 200 Rebal and Short Selling Coming Back into Play
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks
  • Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO


Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Index Inclusions & Upweights Increase Passive Buying to A$2.7bn

By Brian Freitas

  • SigmaHealthcare and ChemistWarehouse shareholders meet on 29 January. If the merger resolutions are approved, Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be effective on 4 February.
  • Upward migration in one large global index could take place on 13 February while upweights and upward migrations in the S&P/ASX indices should be at the close on 21 March.
  • Upward migration in the other global index could take place in March or June. Total passive buying estimate is A$2.76bn. This will be offset by positioning and CWG shareholders selling.

Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?

By Travis Lundy

  • Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
  • The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
  • The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

By Brian Freitas


3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)

By Travis Lundy

  • Seemingly out of the blue, Singapore-based activist investment fund 3D Investment Partners has launched a partial tender offer at a small premium on NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP)
  • 3DIP currently owns 2.2% and at maximum, will own 15.00% of the REIT units outstanding less treasury units. It intends to own the units for “pure investment purposes.”
  • “Shareholder” structure is different for J-REITs vs companies. And this J-REIT has an interesting future possibility. But…

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

By Brian Freitas

  • Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
  • As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.

Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) plans a multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating its aluminum, zinc, oil and gas, steel, and other core operations into standalone entities.
  • This restructuring aims to eliminate conglomerate discount, foster specialized leadership, and attract fresh capital, potentially enhancing overall valuations and fueling long-term growth across diversified segments.
  • Despite governance concerns and cyclical commodity risks, pure-play listings could catalyze re-ratings, offering heightened returns but requiring vigilance on execution and corporate transparency.

Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) announced that it would buy back shares in a Tender Offer and that its controlling “parent” would also sell shares to a private company.
  • The accretion is significant, and the shareholder structure changes significantly. It is not quite an Exedy-like situation though. The register changes but it doesn’t clear. 
  • But the backdrop is considerably different than the MTMP, and that means this smallcap is worth a closer look.

Play the Timing Sweet Spot Between KOSPI 200 Rebal and Short Selling Coming Back into Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • Short selling returns March 31, after 85% of the KOSPI 200’s rebalancing. Stocks set for removal will be prime short targets.
  • Stocks removed have solid liquidity, tight passive impact gaps between them, and with short selling restarting March 31, we could see intensified volume in the short basket.
  • With rebalance ahead, price action may start early. Market exposure means aggressive moves could happen before the end of March, so consider building futures positions before short selling resumes.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks

By Brian Freitas

  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Chemist Warehouse (CWG) shareholders have approved the merger with 99.86% and 100% of the votes cast in favour.
  • The Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be implemented on 12 February, which is when the passive buying could commence.
  • Sigma Healthcare has continued to trade higher on a record margin and sales expansion for CWG and expected passive buying that could top A$3bn over the next few months.

Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • While this company is well-positioned in its sector and has a prudent growth strategy and balance-sheet flexibility, the short term “sector winds” are now blowing in a different direction.
  • Venture Global (VG) debuted last Friday with a major price cut and a more disappointing debut. 
  • Our sources state that the official message regarding the deal is that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed from long-only and energy-dedicated funds. 

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Daily Brief ESG: Improved Governance Tends to Raise Reason to Buy Japanese Stocks when Corporate Profit Is Lackluster and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Improved Governance Tends to Raise Reason to Buy Japanese Stocks when Corporate Profit Is Lackluster


Improved Governance Tends to Raise Reason to Buy Japanese Stocks when Corporate Profit Is Lackluster

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Overseas investors have sold off heavily in Japanese equities since July, and it’ll interesting to see the trading trends in January, which will reflect their asset allocation for the year.
  • Overseas investors buy Japanese equities when they expect the management of Japanese companies to change and improve their profitability and growth potential.
  • Benchmark investors who have reduced their investment weighting in Japanese equities may return to their investment weighting if they expect a relative improvement in Japanese equity investment performance in 3Q.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): DeepSeek R1. Ahem and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • DeepSeek R1. Ahem, This Is Awkward..
  • Ohayo Japan | AI Anxiety Fades (For Now)
  • Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel’s like a Dead Cat Bounce
  • Semiconductor’s Over-Dependency on AI
  • Singapore Banks: Singapore’s Financial Powerhouses Capitalizing on the City’s Continued Rise
  • India’s Inflation Eases to 5.22%: What Does It Mean for the Economy?
  • Japan Consumer Markets: What’s Next?
  • # India Insight 92: Adani Faces Deal Revocation, Reliance Buys SIL, Premium Products Thrive
  • Singapore Market Roundup (28-Jan-2025): Suntec REIT’s FY2024 uncertain, lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026.
  • Thematic Report: How Indian Hotel Sector Is Bucking the Trend of Slowdown?


DeepSeek R1. Ahem, This Is Awkward..

By William Keating

  • DeepSeek’s R1 is a game changer that’s taken the world by storm. It’s a fantastic accomplishment by a Chinese team and a huge endorsement of the open source approach
  • US competitors have egg on their faces now, but they will adapt. Competition is always a good thing & the future of AI just got a whole lot brighter
  • Last night’s selloff was a Chinese New Year gift. Just accept it. Happy CNY to all!

Ohayo Japan | AI Anxiety Fades (For Now)

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nasdaq jumped over 2% – Nvidia surged nearly 9%, leading the rally after shedding $589 billion in market value the previous session. 
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will be closely watched. Earnings from Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are also in focus
  • Sumitomo Heavy has acquired French semiconductor equipment manufacturer LASSE, bolstering its European presence and global semiconductor business

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech and Semi Rebound Feel’s like a Dead Cat Bounce

By Andrew Jackson

  • Limited breadth of winners, even in the SOX, with numerous DeepSeek and capex questions outstanding.
  • Regardless expect JP SPE to be higher to start; watch Advantest into numbers today after its -19% 2-day drop.
  • IT/SaaS companies are worth a look here with AI R&D costs now potentially much lower including Fujitsu and NEC.

Semiconductor’s Over-Dependency on AI

By Jim Handy

  • A new AI platform named DeepSeek threatens today’s Large Language Model status quo
  • Certain chip companies have become over-dependent on AI, including Nvidia, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, and their stock has tumbled
  • It’s too early to tell what will occur over the long term

Singapore Banks: Singapore’s Financial Powerhouses Capitalizing on the City’s Continued Rise

By Kilde

  • Singapore banks are earning record profits, driven by elevated net interest margins and rising fee income.
  • Assets under management (AUM) grew significantly in 2024 for Singapore’s banks. DBS leads with S$401bn of AUM as of 3Q24 (+13.6% YoY), while OCBC reported S$284bn of AUM (+5.2% YoY), and UOB reached S$186bn.
  • Total non-interest income for DBS, OCBC, and UOB in 3Q24 rose 29% YoY to over S$5bn combined.

India’s Inflation Eases to 5.22%: What Does It Mean for the Economy?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India’s retail inflation dipped to a four-month low of 5.22% in December 2024, aided by moderating food prices and stable core inflation below 4%.
  • Although food inflation subsided, especially in vegetables, prices remain elevated, keeping inflation above the 4% RBI target and impacting monetary policy decisions and household spending.
  • With structural shifts in CPI weightage and strong agricultural prospects, inflation looks more manageable, suggesting cautious optimism but underscoring the RBI’s readiness to adjust rates if pressures resurface.

Japan Consumer Markets: What’s Next?

By Michael Causton

  • On the surface, Japan is burdened with an ageing, declining population and a consumer economy where inflation is the only important topic of conversation. 
  • But this belies the fact that the shops are full and retailers are, on the whole, more profitable than ever.
  • Households remain wealthy with growing stocks of savings and 2025 will be all about unlocking this money.

# India Insight 92: Adani Faces Deal Revocation, Reliance Buys SIL, Premium Products Thrive

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Sri Lanka revokes a power purchase agreement with Adani Group amidst corruption allegations. While the group denies the accusations, the new government is reevaluating the project.
  • Reliance Consumer Products acquires SIL Food India, a packaged foods brand, to strengthen its FMCG portfolio and to compete with giants Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)  and Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN).
  • Despite inflation, demand for premium products like groceries, spirits, clothing, and shoes remains strong, especially in cities. 

Singapore Market Roundup (28-Jan-2025): Suntec REIT’s FY2024 uncertain, lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Suntec REIT’s future outlook uncertain, with analysts predicting lower estimates for FY2025-FY2026.
  • OUE REIT’s performance post FY2024 results continues to divide opinions amongst analysts.
  • DBS maintains ‘buy’ rating and $3 target price for Seatrium, while reporting weak overseas assets for MPACT in 3QFY2025.

Thematic Report: How Indian Hotel Sector Is Bucking the Trend of Slowdown?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India’s economy is facing a temporary slowdown but there is one sector which ditched the slowdown trend 
  • The leader of sector just said their upcoming quarter Q4FY25 will be similar to Q3FY25.
  • The hotel sector is slowly turning into a non-cyclical sector from a cyclical sector.

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