Smartkarma Daily Briefs

ACT’s team for T’way Air’s small shareholders plans to push for a public tender offer once they reach the 3% stake threshold.
Sono may shift its stance on a public tender offer. With a 3% stake gap, Sono must appease retail shareholders before the AGM, especially after the rights offering backlash.
FSC probe shows info leaks from brokers and law firms still trigger volume volatility before tender offers. Monitor T’way Air’s trading volume closely until February’s end.

Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS’s Special Dividend

SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.
I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.
The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair’s breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&O members.

Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won

Hanwha Aerospace announced that it plans to purchase a 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean.
This 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean is currently worth about 1.3 trillion won (US$0.9 billion). After this purchase, Hanwha Aerospace’s stake in Hanwha Ocean will increase from 23.14% to 30.44%.
There could be a further positive momentum on Hanwha Aerospace in the near-term due to its positive earnings report in 4Q24 combined with acquisition of additional stake in Hanwha Ocean.

[Quiddity Index Feb25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: We See 6 Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2025.
We expect six ADDs and six DELs for the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2025 index rebal event based on the latest available data.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side; Strong Outperformance

Just over halfway through the review period for the June rebalance of the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX), there could be 10 constituent changes.
The estimated impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.03-3.6 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.8-4.3 days of ADV.
The list of forecast adds and deletes has been fairly stable over the last month. The forecast adds have run up at a blistering pace and outperformed the forecast deletes.

Samsung Electronics – Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)’s shares were up 3.5% (55,600 won) while KOSPI was down 0.3% today. We believe there were two major reasons for this.
First, there was a recent meeting among Lee Jae Yong (Samsung Electronics), Masayoshi Son (Softbank), and Sam Altman (Open AI) regarding a potential alliance regarding the new Stargate Project.
Second, there has been increased speculation regarding additional total shareholder returns measures by Samsung Electronics that could be announced in the coming weeks.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 11

Daily Brief Singapore: Paragon REIT, Capitaland India Trust, Frasers Property Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)’s Privatisation Offer
S-Reits, industrials lead institutional outflow
REIT Watch – Occupancy remains high for S-Reits’ Singapore retail assets

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)’s Privatisation Offer

By David Blennerhassett

Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24’s S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.

S-Reits, industrials lead institutional outflow

By Geoff Howie

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, with a net outflow of S$169 million from Jan 31 to Feb 6.
CapitaLand Ascott Trust’s FY24 core distribution per stapled security increased 1% to 5.49 cents, driven by portfolio reconstitution.
CapitaLand India Trust’s FY24 distribution per unit rose 6% to 6.84 Singapore cents, supported by acquisitions and rent reversion.

REIT Watch – Occupancy remains high for S-Reits’ Singapore retail assets

By Geoff Howie

S-Reits with retail assets in Singapore reported strong committed occupancy and positive rental reversions, driven by tourism recovery.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust reported occupancy above 99% and rental growth.
CBRE and DBS Group Research anticipate continued strong leasing sentiment and retail rent growth in Singapore through 2025.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 11

Daily Brief United States: Natural Gas, Copper, Paragon 28 Inc, Cirrus Logic, Gold, Columbia Sportswear Co, Ethereum, DXC Technology Co, CEL-SCI , Globe Life and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Global Commodities: Global Natural Gas: Increased Russian pipeline gas to Europe?
We Answer an Open Q&A
SSI Weekly Newsletter: Mergers, Strategic Reviews, Liquidations, and Investment Updates
Cirrus Logic: The High-Performance Mixed Signal Expansion & Other Major Drivers
[Precious Insights 2025/06] Gold Set to Continue Shining
Columbia Sportswear Company: Expanding Global Presence in China & Europe!
Ethereum Deep Dive: L2 Scaling, Competition, and TradFi Integration
DXC Technology: Will its Improved Bookings & Pipeline Serve As A Stronger Foundation For Potential Growth?
CVM: Fiscal Year 2024 Results
Globe Life Inc (GL) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024

Global Commodities: Global Natural Gas: Increased Russian pipeline gas to Europe?

By At Any Rate

Debate surrounding potential increase in Russian pipeline gas to Europe, with uncertainty of timing and magnitude of flows
Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the US all have vested interests in potential negotiations for increased pipeline gas flows
Impact on European natural gas balance and global gas balance if increased Russian pipeline flows were to manifest, with current base case price forecast for TTF market in 2025 and 2026 without embedding increase in Russian natural gas flows

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

We Answer an Open Q&A

By Money of Mine

The outlook for copper in the near term is positive, but the market interest in copper may mean higher prices
Investing in copper may be expensive due to high demand and M&A activity in the sector
Finding a pure play copper company of significant scale on the ASX may be challenging, with considerations of China’s impact on copper demand and production levels in mind.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

SSI Weekly Newsletter: Mergers, Strategic Reviews, Liquidations, and Investment Updates

By Dalius Tauraitis

Paragon 28 is being acquired by Zimmer Biomet for $13/share plus a non-transferable CVR, with potential payout.
Allakos is undergoing a strategic review, trading at net cash, with potential value in NOLs and reverse merger.
Copper Property CTL Trust is liquidating, marketing 121 retail properties leased to JC Penney, with 30%+ NAV upside.

Cirrus Logic: The High-Performance Mixed Signal Expansion & Other Major Drivers

Cirrus Logic recently reported its financial performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
The company announced revenues of $555.7 million, surpassing the upper limit of its guidance range due to stronger-than-anticipated demand in the smartphone sector.
However, this quarter represented a 10% decline in sales year-over-year, attributed largely to a decrease in smartphone volumes and adjustments in the fiscal calendar.

[Precious Insights 2025/06] Gold Set to Continue Shining

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Long gold has been a winning strategy over the last two calendar years. Gold futures has clocked a 125% increase since start of 2019 until now.
Gold has seen its strongest rally yet over the last two years, breaking through previous all-time highs with minimal retracement.
GLD ETF has delivered a 7.4% price returns over the last month and an 8% upside YTD in 2025 so far.

Columbia Sportswear Company: Expanding Global Presence in China & Europe!

Columbia Sportswear Company’s fourth quarter and full-year financial performance for 2024 presented a mixed picture rooted in market dynamics and strategic initiatives.
On the earnings call, the company leadership, including CEO Tim Boyle, highlighted achievements in inventory management, cost savings, and international market growth, while acknowledging challenges faced in North American market conditions.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Ethereum Deep Dive: L2 Scaling, Competition, and TradFi Integration

By Christopher Rosa

Ethereum leads in tokenization, but Solana and Sui are gaining traction with high-speed trading and alternative L1 adoption. Institutional multi-chain strategies may drive further competition.
Ethereum’s L2s enhance scalability, but fee revenue is diversifying as Alt-L1s grow. Base shows how L2s can leverage Ethereum’s security while competing ecosystems challenge its dominance.
TradFi is embracing blockchain, with stablecoins and tokenization set to expand. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund on Ethereum highlights its role as the preferred settlement layer for institutional finance.

DXC Technology: Will its Improved Bookings & Pipeline Serve As A Stronger Foundation For Potential Growth?

DXC Technology showed promising third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, driven by effective operational changes and strategic initiatives.
The company reported revenue, adjusted EBIT margin, and non-GAAP EPS above its forecast expectations.
Revenue declined by 4.2% year-over-year on an organic basis, while the adjusted EBIT margin increased to 8.9%, reflecting a year-over-year expansion.

CVM: Fiscal Year 2024 Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

CEL-SCI is developing two platforms: Multikine and LEAPS.
Multikine has completed a Phase 3 trial for head and neck cancer while LEAPS is conducting preclinical studies for RA, Pandemic Flu and breast cancer.
In June 2021, CEL-SCI reported selected data from its IT-MATTERS trial demonstrating a benefit in the low PD-L1, non-chemotherapy population.

Globe Life Inc (GL) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Globe Life Inc. faced a share price decline and negative report from Fuzzy Panda in April 2024 due to concerns about bad agents and a kickback scheme
Despite SEC inquiry and potential cyber-attack, Globe Life showed strong performance in third quarter
Company facing challenges such as whistleblower lawsuit dismissal and extortion by hackers, but outlook remains positive with stock trading at a discount to long-term levels

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 11

Daily Brief India: Oracle Financial Services, Hexaware Technologies, Borosil Renewables, Ajax Engineering Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech
Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights
The Beat Ideas: Borosil Renewables- 50% Capacity Expansion
Ajax Engineering IPO – Robust Growth Driven by a Comprehensive Dealer Network

Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech

Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN) could replace L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) in the Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX) at the March rebalance.
L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) will also be excluded from the F&O segment at the close on 27 March, so there could be some interesting dynamics at play.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stock. The impact in terms of delivery volume increases to 1.6-2.2x.

Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion.
We previously discussed the IPO in Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bull Case and Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs674-708 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

The Beat Ideas: Borosil Renewables- 50% Capacity Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Borosil Renewables (BRSL IN) is India’s largest solar glass manufacturer having c apacity of 1000TPD in India and 350TPD in Germany.
With the rising demand and government anti-dumping duty support company is increasing 50% capacity in India to 1500TPD in the upcoming 18 Months.
Company also raised INR 700Crs of funds via preferential, 100Crs via equity from promoter and 600Crs via warrants from HNIs and family offices for capex and loan repayment.

Ajax Engineering IPO – Robust Growth Driven by a Comprehensive Dealer Network

By Akshat Shah

Ajax Engineering Limited (0896529D IN) is looking to raise about US$145m in its upcoming India IPO.
Ajax Engineering Limited (AEL) is one of the leading concrete equipment manufacturers with a comprehensive range of concrete equipment, services and solutions across the concrete application value chain.
In this note, we take a quick look at the company’s past performance and the IPO valuations.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 11

Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, M3 Inc, Urbanet Corp, Nihon Nohyaku, Sinanen Holdings, Systems Engineering Consulta, Nichiban Co Ltd, Neturen Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

The Strategy Is More Important than Whether the Mid-Term Business Plan and the Actual Are Blurred
M3: ELAN Acquisition Drives Top Line Growth; Earnings Growth to Remain Weak
Urbanet Corp (3242 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update
Nihon Nohyaku (4997 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
Sinanen Holdings (8132 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
Systems Engineering Consulta (3741 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
Nichiban Co Ltd (4218 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
Neturen Co Ltd (5976 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

The Strategy Is More Important than Whether the Mid-Term Business Plan and the Actual Are Blurred

By Aki Matsumoto

Investors want to see if management can be entrusted with strategies to increase certainty of achieving plans, to build foundations for growth to expand corporate value, and to manage company.
The problem is that the disclosed contents of the mid-term management plan do not include necessary information, or the goals themselves are not what investors are looking for.
Before disclosing medium-term management plans, companies should estimate how much return on capital can be achieved by the plan and how much the corporate value and stock price will be.

M3: ELAN Acquisition Drives Top Line Growth; Earnings Growth to Remain Weak

M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 3QFY03/2025 earnings today. Both revenue and OP grew YoY as well as beat consensus estimates. Most of revenue growth came from the ELAN acquisition.
Medical Platform’s earnings have continued to decline as a result of spending cuts by pharmaceutical companies while there has been a slight improvement in Overseas earnings during the quarter.
Though the overall declining trend in m3’s earnings has eased, we expect the earnings growth to remain weak. ELAN’s margins have continued to deteriorate.

Urbanet Corp (3242 JP): 1H FY06/25 flash update

In 1H FY06/25, sales were JPY8.0bn (-30.3% YoY) and operating profit was JPY101mn (-87.9% YoY), with a recurring loss of JPY232mn.
Real Estate business sales were JPY7.8bn (-30.7% YoY) and segment profit was JPY865mn (-37.6% YoY) in 1H FY06/25.
Total assets at end-Q2 FY06/25 were JPY57.2bn, liabilities increased to JPY42.4bn, and net assets were JPY14.8bn.

Nihon Nohyaku (4997 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue decreased by 3.0% YoY to JPY61.4bn, with agrochemicals revenue at JPY57.2bn, down 3.5% YoY.
Operating profit increased by 42.4% YoY to JPY3.6bn, driven by improved profitability and yen depreciation.
Domestic agrochemical sales rose 6.3% YoY, while overseas revenue fell 5.8% YoY due to weather impacts.

Sinanen Holdings (8132 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Net sales declined by 11.3% YoY to JPY210.7bn, with improved profitability due to market-linked pricing plans.
Operating profit reached JPY2.8bn, recovering from a loss of JPY711mn, with recurring profit at JPY3.1bn.
Net income attributable to owners was JPY1.8bn, supported by impairment losses and subsidiary share sales.

Systems Engineering Consulta (3741 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Cumulative Q3 FY03/25 revenue was JPY7.1bn, with gross profit at JPY2.2bn and net income at JPY922mn.
Orders in cumulative Q3 FY03/25 reached JPY7.5bn, and the order backlog was JPY6.2bn, both record highs.
SEC revised its full-year FY03/25 forecast to JPY10.1bn revenue, with a year-end dividend of JPY102 per share.

Nichiban Co Ltd (4218 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue increased 5.3% YoY to JPY37.4bn, driven by healthcare growth and price revisions in the Tape business.
Operating profit rose 37.4% YoY to JPY2.4bn, with improved profitability from high-margin products and price adjustments.
Overseas revenue grew 43.5% YoY to JPY1.7bn, aided by strong sales in Asia and Europe and a weaker yen.

Neturen Co Ltd (5976 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Cumulative Q3 FY03/25 revenue was JPY41.9bn, a 2.8% YoY decrease, with operating profit at JPY1.1bn.
Specialty Steel and Wire Products revenue fell 5.2% YoY, while Induction Heating revenue increased 1.6% YoY.
Operating profit margin declined 0.3pp YoY to 2.6%, with net income down 32.1% YoY to JPY888mn.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 11

Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, Get Nice Financial Group Ltd, China Life Insurance Company, Hanx Biopharmaceuticals, Li Ning, Mixue Group, SUNeVision Holdings, Guming Holdings, Fosun Tourism and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi
Get Nice Financial (1469 HK)’s Scheme Vote On The 7th March
A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Feb 2025): AH Premia Fall Again – Tech Good, Foreigners Buying HK
Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea
MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Mar25: Couple of Names Have High Impact; Time for a Trade
Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon
Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Done Deal with Vote on 7 March
Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
We continue to expect one change for the HSTECH index in March 2025, combined with capping flows of US$716mn.

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK)’s Scheme Vote On The 7th March

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 5th November, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH) announced a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) (GNF).
The (then) HK$1.116/share implied scrip price & divvy compared to a book value of HK1.736/share. and net cash of ~HK$1.00/share. At the 22nd January EGM, GNH shareholders backed the Offer.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 7th March, with new GNH shares trading on the 7th April. The IFA (Veda Capital) botched its peer analysis.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 7 Feb 2025): AH Premia Fall Again – Tech Good, Foreigners Buying HK

By Travis Lundy

AH Premia are lower over the last two weeks spanning the CNY holiday. HK stocks up. H/A discounts slightly narrower on average.
The past two weeks saw Consumer and Financial AH premia drop. Utilities, energy, and Industrials widened slightly on average. Narrow premia AH dropped more than wide premia.
AH Premia on average at a new five year low. Some may be foreigners returning to HK. Some may be just drift. Many wide spreads still exist.

Pre-IPO Hanx Biopharmaceuticals – The Risk of Pipeline Development Failure Is High

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CD47 has been considered “problematic” by the industry, so in order to prove its druggability, it usually requires very good clinical data, and cannot rely on “conjectures” such as BsAb.
There’s no compelling evidence to prove that the toxicity issue of CD47 can be resolved. There’re concerns on the safety profile and efficacy of HX009/HX044, with high R&D failure risks.
After Series B+ of financing in June 2024, post-investment valuation of Hanx reached about RMB1.6 billion. Due to slower R&D progress. we think Hanx’s valuation should be lower than ImmuneOnco.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Mar25: One Change Likely; US$204mn One-Way; Sector-Neutral Trade Idea

The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
We continue to expect one change for the HSCEI index in March 2025.

MIXUE Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Slower Growth but Better Margins

By Sumeet Singh

Mixue Group is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we talk about updates from its recent filings.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Mar25: Couple of Names Have High Impact; Time for a Trade

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) Index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
We expect four changes for the HSIII index in March 2025.

Guming (1364 HK): Global Index Inclusion Not Coming Soon

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) is forecasted to initially fail the fcap threshold for both global indices due to an IPO free float of ~6%.
The security is expected to be added at the global index’s March 2026 review as the lock-up expiry’s fcap increase becomes effective post September 2025 cut-off date.
The security will be eligible for the other global index at the May 2026 review following the 12-month lock-up expiry of the undisclosed shareholders.

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): Done Deal with Vote on 7 March

Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)’s IFA opines that Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH)’s offer (4 GNH shares per GNF share + HK$0.50 dividend) is fair and reasonable.
The GNF vote required approval of the scheme by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The vote is low risk.
The spread remains high as GNH is not shortable. At the last close, for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was 10.2%/89.3%.

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback privatisation offer of HK$7.80 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 4 March.
The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by <10% of disinterested shareholders). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment was 3.5%/30.2%.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 11

Daily Brief Industrials: T’Way Air, Hanwha Aerospace, Ajax Engineering Limited, Kelly Partners Group Holdings, Azek, Blue Bird Corp, Nichiban Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air
Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won
Ajax Engineering IPO – Robust Growth Driven by a Comprehensive Dealer Network
Boldstart Ventures’ Shomik Ghosh on Kelly Partners’ $KPG.AX unique accounting firm roll-up strategy
AZEK’s Railing Revolution: How It’s Trying To Take Over The Billion-Dollar Wood Market!
Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024
Nichiban Co Ltd (4218 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

New Tender Trigger in Korea: Small Shareholder Collective Action Via Online Platform on T’way Air

ACT’s team for T’way Air’s small shareholders plans to push for a public tender offer once they reach the 3% stake threshold.
Sono may shift its stance on a public tender offer. With a 3% stake gap, Sono must appease retail shareholders before the AGM, especially after the rights offering backlash.
FSC probe shows info leaks from brokers and law firms still trigger volume volatility before tender offers. Monitor T’way Air’s trading volume closely until February’s end.

Hanwha Aerospace Acquiring Additional 7.3% Stake in Hanwha Ocean for About 1.3 Trillion Won

Hanwha Aerospace announced that it plans to purchase a 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean.
This 7.3% stake in Hanwha Ocean is currently worth about 1.3 trillion won (US$0.9 billion). After this purchase, Hanwha Aerospace’s stake in Hanwha Ocean will increase from 23.14% to 30.44%.
There could be a further positive momentum on Hanwha Aerospace in the near-term due to its positive earnings report in 4Q24 combined with acquisition of additional stake in Hanwha Ocean.

Ajax Engineering IPO – Robust Growth Driven by a Comprehensive Dealer Network

By Akshat Shah

Ajax Engineering Limited (0896529D IN) is looking to raise about US$145m in its upcoming India IPO.
Ajax Engineering Limited (AEL) is one of the leading concrete equipment manufacturers with a comprehensive range of concrete equipment, services and solutions across the concrete application value chain.
In this note, we take a quick look at the company’s past performance and the IPO valuations.

Boldstart Ventures’ Shomik Ghosh on Kelly Partners’ $KPG.AX unique accounting firm roll-up strategy

By Yet Another Value Podcast

Discussion about historical stocks, including Shopify, and the importance of thorough due diligence
Introduction to Kelly Partners Group, an Australian accounting rollup founded by Brett Kelly
Analysis of the market opportunity and potential alpha in investing in Kelly Partners Group

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

AZEK’s Railing Revolution: How It’s Trying To Take Over The Billion-Dollar Wood Market!

The AZEK Company reported solid financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with notable achievements in their Residential segment.
The company’s net sales increased by 22% year-over-year to $272 million, driven significantly by growth in the Deck, Rail & Accessories and Exteriors product categories.
The Residential segment also saw a 24% year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 23.7%.

Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Blue Bird is a leading school bus manufacturer in North America, with all buses produced at its headquarters in Fort Valley, Georgia
The company went through bankruptcy in 2006 and was acquired by Cerberus, before going public in 2015
Blue Bird sources engines from Cummins, Ford, and ROUSH CleanTech, and has a strategic partnership with Cummins for developing electric school buses

Nichiban Co Ltd (4218 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue increased 5.3% YoY to JPY37.4bn, driven by healthcare growth and price revisions in the Tape business.
Operating profit rose 37.4% YoY to JPY2.4bn, with improved profitability from high-margin products and price adjustments.
Overseas revenue grew 43.5% YoY to JPY1.7bn, aided by strong sales in Asia and Europe and a weaker yen.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 11

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Miwon Specialty Chemical, Anglo American Platinum , Natural Gas, Copper, Vermilion Energy , Solaris Resources , Iron Ore, Cemex SAB de CV, Gold, ChampionX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index Feb25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: We See 6 Changes Possible
JSE Mar 25 Rebalance: T40 AMS Potential Add, GRT Delete, BOX Likely to Enter ALSI!
Global Commodities: Global Natural Gas: Increased Russian pipeline gas to Europe?
We Answer an Open Q&A
Vermilion Energy Inc (VET.) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024
Solaris Resources: Elections in Ecuador Bullish for Commodity Stocks
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/06]: Bullish Momentum, But Correction Looms
Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential
Gold Anomaly
ChampionX Corporation: Can It Capitalize On The Increasing Demand for Artificial Lift & Production Optimization Solutions?

[Quiddity Index Feb25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard Jun25: We See 6 Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2025.
We expect six ADDs and six DELs for the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2025 index rebal event based on the latest available data.

JSE Mar 25 Rebalance: T40 AMS Potential Add, GRT Delete, BOX Likely to Enter ALSI!

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Thursday the 20th of March (due to the public holiday on the 21st of March).
The current rankings suggest that AMS may enter the Top 40, with GRT falling out.
AMS’s net market cap is 8.5% above SSW, suggesting that entry into the Top 40 at this point is possible.

Global Commodities: Global Natural Gas: Increased Russian pipeline gas to Europe?

By At Any Rate

Debate surrounding potential increase in Russian pipeline gas to Europe, with uncertainty of timing and magnitude of flows
Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the US all have vested interests in potential negotiations for increased pipeline gas flows
Impact on European natural gas balance and global gas balance if increased Russian pipeline flows were to manifest, with current base case price forecast for TTF market in 2025 and 2026 without embedding increase in Russian natural gas flows

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

We Answer an Open Q&A

By Money of Mine

The outlook for copper in the near term is positive, but the market interest in copper may mean higher prices
Investing in copper may be expensive due to high demand and M&A activity in the sector
Finding a pure play copper company of significant scale on the ASX may be challenging, with considerations of China’s impact on copper demand and production levels in mind.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Vermilion Energy Inc (VET.) – Monday, Nov 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

VET is undervalued, trading at a price target of C$26.00/share with a 20% yield on 2025E levered free cash flow
The company plans to grow production and sustain cash flow for another decade, with a strong balance sheet and attractive reinvestment opportunities
VET has exposure to European gas pricing, high netbacks, and slow decline rates, with management committed to returning 50% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks

Solaris Resources: Elections in Ecuador Bullish for Commodity Stocks

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

On Sunday 9th of February, the people of Ecuador headed to the polls to elect a new president. The first round was narrowly won by incumbent Noboa.
A run-off between Noboa and Gonzalez is planned for April 13th. A victory for either candidate is bullish Ecuador mining companies as both have a pro-mining stance.
Solaris Resources has been often targeted by anti-mining protestors in the past but a new stable government and a new Solaris CEO could catapult stock higher.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/06]: Bullish Momentum, But Correction Looms

By Pranay Yadav

SGX Iron Ore Futures rose by $2.25/ton, closing at $107.30/ton on Feb 7, after trading within a $5.50/ton range, the widest in recent weeks.
Strong demand from steel mills, a weaker U.S. dollar (-0.4%), and supply risks from Rio Tinto port clearances drove iron ore prices higher.
Prices trade above key moving averages, with RSI nearing the overbought zone (65.08), suggesting a potential correction in line with historical post-CNY trends.

Cemex 4Q24: A Solid EM Credit, But Tariff Overhang Limits Near-Term Potential

By Leandro Gubler

We maintain our Market Perform recommendation on Cemex. Current spreads do not offer an attractive entry point, particularly given the potential risk of U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports.
We would keep the name on our watchlist for potential investment should this risk of U.S. tariffs subside.
Within Cemex’s capital structure, we prefer the CEMEX (BBB-/BBB-) 5.20% 2030 notes, which trade wider than the Mexican sovereign, the EM BBB index, and comparable peers.

Gold Anomaly

By The Commodity Report

Gold Anomaly As Warren Pies wrote in a post last week, the current performance of Gold is really an anomaly, both plotted against TIPS and the USD-Index.
This anomaly once again highlights the importance of thinking of gold as a liquidity hedge – it is not primarily an inflation hedge or always highly correlated with the USD or inflation expectations.
Warren wrote that 2024 (and also currently) is the fifth calendar year with positive 10y TIPS yields and positive gold returns (2005, 2006, 2008, 2023).

ChampionX Corporation: Can It Capitalize On The Increasing Demand for Artificial Lift & Production Optimization Solutions?

ChampionX Corporation’s fourth quarter and full-year 2023 financial results demonstrate robust operational performance coupled with strategic capital allocation.
The company successfully capitalized on its well-diversified portfolio, achieving significant growth in key financial metrics post its merger in 2020.
Highlighting the positives, ChampionX recorded a 25% growth in adjusted EBITDA and expanded its adjusted EBITDA margin by 430 basis points, showcasing strong earnings momentum.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Feb 11

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Samsung SDS, Horizon Robotics, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Oracle Financial Services, SUNeVision Holdings, Philoptics Co Ltd., Hexaware Technologies, Cirrus Logic, Samsung Electronics, Pegatron Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS’s Special Dividend
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi
Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E
Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Mar25: Couple of Names Have High Impact; Time for a Trade
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side; Strong Outperformance
Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights
Cirrus Logic: The High-Performance Mixed Signal Expansion & Other Major Drivers
Samsung Electronics – Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Feb-2025): Can Trump’s tariffs benefit India’s tech?

Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS’s Special Dividend

SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.
I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.
The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi

The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
We continue to expect one change for the HSTECH index in March 2025, combined with capping flows of US$716mn.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI Developing Alternative to Nvidia with TSMC; Hon Hai Guides Strong 1Q25E

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

OpenAI Joins the AI Chip Race — Partnering with TSMC and Broadcom to Reduce Nvidia Reliance
TSMC January Revenue Rises 35.9% — But Reduces 1Q25E Expectations Due to Quake Impact
Hon Hai Guides for 1Q25E Growth to Be Above Average and ‘Strong’

Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech

Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN) could replace L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) in the Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX) at the March rebalance.
L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) will also be excluded from the F&O segment at the close on 27 March, so there could be some interesting dynamics at play.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stock. The impact in terms of delivery volume increases to 1.6-2.2x.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Mar25: Couple of Names Have High Impact; Time for a Trade

The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) Index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
We expect four changes for the HSIII index in March 2025.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side; Strong Outperformance

Just over halfway through the review period for the June rebalance of the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX), there could be 10 constituent changes.
The estimated impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.03-3.6 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.8-4.3 days of ADV.
The list of forecast adds and deletes has been fairly stable over the last month. The forecast adds have run up at a blistering pace and outperformed the forecast deletes.

Hexaware Technologies IPO: Valuation Insights

Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN), an Indian mid-sized global IT services company, aims to raise up to US$1.0 billion.
We previously discussed the IPO in Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bull Case and Hexaware Technologies IPO: The Bear Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs674-708 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Cirrus Logic: The High-Performance Mixed Signal Expansion & Other Major Drivers

Cirrus Logic recently reported its financial performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
The company announced revenues of $555.7 million, surpassing the upper limit of its guidance range due to stronger-than-anticipated demand in the smartphone sector.
However, this quarter represented a 10% decline in sales year-over-year, attributed largely to a decrease in smartphone volumes and adjustments in the fiscal calendar.

Samsung Electronics – Positive Impact from the Potential Involvement in the Stargate Project