Smartkarma Daily Briefs

The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)‘s index weight is below the 10% cap for now.
ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$1.4bn Trade

Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.
Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE US) and Atha Energy Corp (ATHA CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 16.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.36bn.
There are only 3 trading days to implementation of the changes and we’d watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.

[Japan M&A] – KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal

In December-2024, this deal was mooted and it came out as expected. But the implied growth in management forecasts was higher than expected so the price came in quite light.
In March when the deal was announced, it seemed like a tough call, but three weeks later Value Act decided they would tender, but would reinvest in the back end.
The deal is now approved, and launches tomorrow. It gets done, I expect, but it is not a model deal other than being one showing the loopholes available to buyers.

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction – Totally Unsurprising

Hogy Medical (3593 JP)‘s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.

GF Securities (1776 HK): Global Index Inclusion as Sector Rallies

Following a rally in the stock over the last 4 months, GF Securities (H) (1776 HK) could be added to a global index in August.
GF Securities (H) (1776 HK)‘ peers have also rallied over the same time frame and the stock trades in line with its peers on various valuation metrics.
Positioning in the stock is in line with its peers and shorts have continued to increase as the stock price has moved higher.

GMO Internet (4784) – GMO Internet Parent Has Been SELLING In The Market

I have harped on the fact that GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) has to sell GMO Internet (4784 JP) shares with the goal to get 35% tradable shares by end-2025.
I have written about it here, here, here, and here. The price needs to be lower so the parent can launch a HUGE block. The stock must be less squeeze-able.
It turns out the parent started selling in the market the day after the Offering was cancelled. The setup is delicious now.

NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

By GEMS Research – Aletheia Capital

NSDL (NSDL IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 40bn (US$464m) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 160bn (US$1.85bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in November.
Central Depository Services (CDSL IN)‘s stock price has dropped following the announcement of NSDL‘s IPO price band and the muted results could lead to further downside in the stock.

CKH (1 HK): Intervention Towards Securing Participation

By David Blennerhassett

Inviting a PRC investor to join the bidding consortium as a significant member, as opposed to a majority player, appears the panacea to get this port deal over the line.
Although CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) stopped short of naming the investor, China’s state-owned shipping conglomerate Cosco is widely expected/rumoured to join BlackRock and Swiss-Italian shipping company MSC.
Participation through effective intervention? Cosco’s involvement should all-but seal Chinese regulatory approvals. The green light from the US administration, the EU, and other jurisdictions, will pivot off how much involvement.

A Tender Offer of JTC by Affirma Capital

By Douglas Kim

On 28 July, it was announced that Affirma Capital will conduct a tender offer of JTC Inc/Fukuoka (950170 KS) which is a Japanese duty free operator listed on KOSDAQ.
This follows the exercise of a call option on all shares held by former JTC Chairman Gu Cheol-mo.
Despite some recent concerns about travelling to Japan due to Manga driven fears about earthquakes, there are some clear longer term signs that the global travelers visiting Japan are increasing.

Hana Micron Split Cancellation: Trades Targeting Position Unwinding and Korea Discount Compression

By Sanghyun Park

The split’s cancellation caught event-driven traders off guard, squeezing shorts and sparking short-covering flows, likely boosting the stock near term and removing governance overhang for a potential rerate.
Passive flow shifts as spinco’s planned KOSDAQ 150 inclusion is canceled, reversing early index rebalancing and pre-positioning by passive investors.
Hana Micron stays in the index, so no major passive outflows—just some trimming. Trade the short-cover pop, watch for passive cleanup dips as potential re-entry points.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 25th): LG Chem and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 25th): LG Chem, Shinhan Group, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Electronics, SCD
JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 25th): LG Chem, Shinhan Group, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Electronics, SCD

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated short interest was USD9.7bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in LG Chem, Shinhan Group, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Electronics, SCD.

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,503m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Marui, Sanrio, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

By Joe Jasper

We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief ECM: National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) IPO – Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) IPO – Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation
Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT IPO: Lags in Size but Priced at a Discount
Aditya Infotech: Niche Opportunity at Fair Valuations but Concerns Lurk
WhiteFiber, Inc. (WYFI): AI Infrastructure Company Sets Terms for IPO, Data Centers in Focus
Ab&B Bio-Tech (中慧生物) Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates Suggest Competition Intensifying

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) IPO – Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

NSDL (NSDL IN) is looking to raise around US$460m in its upcoming India IPO.
It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and talk about valuations.

Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT IPO: Lags in Size but Priced at a Discount

By Nicholas Tan

Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT (401A JP) is looking to raise up to US$192m in its upcoming Japan IPO.
It is a REIT with hotel assets sponsored by affiliated developer, Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP).
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Aditya Infotech: Niche Opportunity at Fair Valuations but Concerns Lurk

By Himanshu Dugar

Company operates home grown CCTV brand ‘CP PLUS’. Also the sole distributor for Zhejiang Dahua Technology A (002236 CH) in India. Dahua is also its primary components supplier.
Expect 15-25% revenue growth vs 16% for industry with operating margins gradually improving to 10% translating to FY26E earnings range of 20-24.
Company is raising 1,300cr (500cr fresh and 800cr OFS) at implied multiple of ~30x in line with valuation paid by Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN) for its 6.5% stake.

WhiteFiber, Inc. (WYFI): AI Infrastructure Company Sets Terms for IPO, Data Centers in Focus

By IPO Boutique

WhiteFiber is offering 7.8 million shares at $15-$17 equating to a potential market cap of $523m-$593m.
They are currently a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bit Digital. They intend to sell approximately 22.4% of their issued and outstanding Ordinary Shares to the public as part of this offering.
They expect preliminary unaudited revenue from cloud services for the three months ended June 30, 2025 will be $16.1 million to $17.8 million, an increase of 28.7% to 42.3%, respectively.

Ab&B Bio-Tech (中慧生物) Pre-IPO: PHIP Updates Suggest Competition Intensifying

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China-Based vaccine biopharmaceutical company Ab&B is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The joint book runners are CITIC and CMBI.
In our previous insight, we looked at the story that the company is trying to sell and the influenza vaccine market.
In this insight, we look at the latest updates in its PHIP filing.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Constructive US-China Trade Talks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Constructive US-China Trade Talks
Japan Morning Connection: Big Print for Corning Will Drive DC and Optical Connectivity Plays
Who Is Paying Dividends? Singaporean Companies with Upcoming Dividend Ex-Dates Next Week
What’s New(S) In Amsterdam – 29 July (Heineken | Philips | JET | E-Com | Housing Market)

Ohayo Japan | Constructive US-China Trade Talks

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks declined Tuesday as investors digested mixed corporate earnings and economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
US and Chinese trade negotiators concluded two days of talks in Stockholm Tuesday without announcing an immediate tariff delay, though officials indicated progress was made
Advantest raised its fiscal 2026 net profit forecast by 43 billion yen to 222 billion yen, a 37% year-on-year increase and second consecutive record high

Japan Morning Connection: Big Print for Corning Will Drive DC and Optical Connectivity Plays

By Andrew Jackson

HDD names taking a hit in later trading after Seagate miss. Watch the likes of Hoya, TDK and Minebea Misumi for weakness.
Boeing down despite numbers good on better FCF, although 787 deliveries read’s well for carbon fiber names the Heavies.
NEC beat points to plenty of room for further upside, while Advantest numbers may lead to tough QoQ comps for 2Q.

Who Is Paying Dividends? Singaporean Companies with Upcoming Dividend Ex-Dates Next Week

Several Singapore-listed companies are scheduled to pay dividends this week, offering income opportunities for investors.
Duty Free International (DFIL SP) will go ex-dividend on July 23, 2025, with a declared payout of SGD 0.00165 per share, payable on August 6.
This will be followed by SIA Engineering (SIE SP), which will go ex-dividend on July 28 for a SGD 0.07 dividend. SATS Ltd (SATS SP) will offer SGD 0.035, with an ex-date on July 30 and payout scheduled for August 15.

What’s New(S) In Amsterdam – 29 July (Heineken | Philips | JET | E-Com | Housing Market)

By The IDEA!

Heineken | no real triggers for the near term; October may bring more clarity
The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt to under promise and overdeliver or rather a signal that the current market environment is still rather challenging.
In case of the latter, management would have an additional buffer to avoid new disappointments.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Australia: Ampol, Magellan Financial, S&P/ASX 200, Regal Partners, Artemis Resources, Boss Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy
Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Meets Momentum
S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Australia’s Earnings Season Kickoff
Regal Partners Recovers Performance Fee Mojo
Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 21/07/2025
Honeymoon Uncertainty Clouds Boss’ Outlook

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Ampol (ALD AU) vs. Woodside (WDS AU) price-ratio has diverged more than two standard deviations from its one-year average – a classic signal for a potential mean-reversion trade.
Highlights: Going long Ampol (ALD AU) and short Woodside (WDS AU) targets a 7% return if the price ratio reverts to its one-standard-deviation threshold.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Credit Corp (CCP AU) Vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU): Mean Reversion Meets Momentum

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Credit Corp (CCP AU) vs. Magellan Financial (MFG AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: This Insight challenges the typical mean-reversion narrative—strong momentum, company fundamentals, and catalysts suggest the pair could set up either way.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and statistical signals supporting this relative value play.

S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Australia’s Earnings Season Kickoff

By Nico Rosti

The Australian Earnings Season will begin in early August. The S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) suffered a minor setback last week, closed the week down but it’s already rallying higher.
Our profit target for this rally is 8824 (Q2 resistance target). It could go a bit higher than that but we think it will not reach Q3 resistance at 8996.
If for some reason the index returns below last week’s Close, the next support level to watch is 8605 (Q2).

Regal Partners Recovers Performance Fee Mojo

By FNArena

Auguring well for upcoming interim results, Regal Partners has provided a positive quarterly update showing a rebound for funds under management and performance fees.
-Regal Partners’ positive June quarter update -FUM and performance fees rebound -Management raises normalised profit guidance -Share price undervalued, suggests Bell Potter

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 21/07/2025

By Hybridan

A medical technology Company focused on the durable healing of wounds and the prevention of amputations announces its trading update for the six months ended 30 June 2025 as well as an update to FY 2025 guidance.
The Company expects to report revenue for the Period of not less than $31m (H1 2024: $26.3m), representing growth of not less than 18% (H1 2024: 26.4%).
In the first three months of the Period, the Company recorded revenue growth of approximately 26%.

Honeymoon Uncertainty Clouds Boss’ Outlook

By FNArena

Boss Energy’s FY26 guidance raised doubts over Honeymoon’s ability to reach nameplate capacity, clouding the outlook and raising valuation concerns.
-Boss Energy’s operational update triggers share price sell-off -Feasibility study assumptions questioned, given FY26 guidance -Nameplate capacity concerns for Honeymoon translate into much lower valuations/price targets -Expert study will commence shortly, but with no end date yet confirmed

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Severfield — Upside risks to margins and profits and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Severfield — Upside risks to margins and profits
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Reportedly Bests Broadcom for Meta Custom Chip Win; Semi Key Indicators
A Disappointment in the Works for New Dividend Tax Policy in Korea?
Renesas 2Q25: Revenue Inflexion Is Visible but Management Cautious
Japanese Midcap Banks – Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP) Is Our Top Pick
Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.
Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy
55 SGX Stocks Up >15% in a Month – EQDP Attracting Investor Attention
Yageo’s AI-Driven Momentum and Strategic Expansion Through Shibaura Acquisition
EDG: Drill Results Continue to Roll In; Strong Antimony Intersection

Severfield — Upside risks to margins and profits

By Edison Investment Research

Severfield has suffered greatly in the last 12 months, but the outlook appears to be improving as the order book is expanding and the low embedded margins within it wash out over the next 12 months or so. Furthermore, we anticipate the recruitment of a new chief executive ‘imminently’ and the company could return to paying dividends in the current year if the outlook and balance sheet improve sufficiently. Margin recovery could imply that risks are to the upside in FY27.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Reportedly Bests Broadcom for Meta Custom Chip Win; Semi Key Indicators

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek Reportedly Wins Meta’s 2nm AI Chip Order Over Broadcom
Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Vs. Micron — Different Speeds & Focus, Same Structural Shift
Semi Key Indicators Q2 2025: PC, Smartphone Unit Shipments, Global Semi & WFE Sales All Looking Good

A Disappointment in the Works for New Dividend Tax Policy in Korea?

By Douglas Kim

There is a brewing disagreement among many members of the National Assembly in Korea regarding the new dividend tax policy.
A key controversial issue is dividend taxes on dividends exceeding 300 million won. There is a room for some disappointment in the works regarding tax reductions on dividends.
Instead of 25% tax rate for this dividend income bracket (exceeding 300 million won), there has been an increasing pressure by the ruling party to raise this rate to 35%.

Renesas 2Q25: Revenue Inflexion Is Visible but Management Cautious

By Nicolas Baratte

2Q is inline, revenue and margins look like a beat but that’s weaker JPY and higher utilization as the firm is increasing inventory, expecting a better 2H25.
3Q guide is flat QoQ, the YoY recovery continues (2Q -9%, 3Q -4%). For 4Q, management expects a “modest” flattish or slight increase QoQ, which implies at least +13% YoY
The stock is cheap, but “overall demand for automotive, we still have no clue as to how that will unfold” and short-term, Auto growth depends on China

Japanese Midcap Banks – Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP) Is Our Top Pick

By Victor Galliano

We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks focusing on those with large strategic shareholdings relative to market value, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook
Our top-rated pick is Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP), with its constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations including PTBV ratio and healthy gearing to higher interest rates
We also retain Hokuhoku Financial and Hachijuni Bank as buys; Hokuhoku has yet to realize its large strategic holdings whilst Hachijuni has reached its target level for cross-holdings reduction

Vanguard (5347.TT): FX Impact; Mild Recovery, Slightly Better Than 3Q25 Preview.

By Patrick Liao

3Q25 Outlook (based on USD/TWD = 28.7): Wafer Shipments: +7–9% QoQ; ASP: +1–3% QoQ; Gross Margin: 25–27%.
Revenue Mix (Industrial, Auto, 3C): Industrial + Automotive: 40%+ (majority industrial; automotive in teens) ; Communication & Computing: 20%+ each ; Consumer: 10%+.
2025 Dividend Policy : Will maintains NT$4.5 per share dividend.

Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean-Reversion Signal in Aussie Energy

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Ampol (ALD AU) vs. Woodside (WDS AU) price-ratio has diverged more than two standard deviations from its one-year average – a classic signal for a potential mean-reversion trade.
Highlights: Going long Ampol (ALD AU) and short Woodside (WDS AU) targets a 7% return if the price ratio reverts to its one-standard-deviation threshold.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

55 SGX Stocks Up >15% in a Month – EQDP Attracting Investor Attention

By Devi Subhakesan

Singapore’s small- and mid-cap equities have surged over the past month, defying a generally cautious macroeconomic backdrop.
The rally is widely linked to expectations of significant capital inflows from the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP).
A firm Singapore dollar and comparatively attractive dividend yields have further supported investor interest in these stocks.

Yageo’s AI-Driven Momentum and Strategic Expansion Through Shibaura Acquisition

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

2Q25 Results Summary: Reports Broad-Based Growth with Specialty Margin Strength
Yageo Inventory Recovery Marks a Demand-Led Inflection for Hardware Components
Update on Shibaura Acquisition: Still on Track, Strategic Synergy in Focus

EDG: Drill Results Continue to Roll In; Strong Antimony Intersection

By Atrium Research

This morning, EDG announced assay results for four drill holes at its Reliance Gold Project as part of its 2025 exploration campaign.
Today’s highlight hole returned 5.63 g/t Au and 5.12% Sb over 3.3m, representing the best antimony grade over width intersection to date.
At current antimony prices, this intercept adds about 10 g/t AuEq (gold equivalent) to the 5.63 g/t gold intercept.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: SJM Holdings, Yinson Production, Adani Green Energy
Long-end UST yields rose slightly yesterday, with no macro catalysts and following mixed results for auctions of 2Y and 2Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 3.93%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 2 bps to 4.41%.
Equities held steady at record high levels following the US-EU trade agreement, and on expectations of an extension of the US-China trade truce. The S&P 500 was flat at 6,390, while the Nasdaq was up 0.3% at 21,179.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction – Totally Unsurprising and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction – Totally Unsurprising
GMO Internet (4784) – GMO Internet Parent Has Been SELLING In The Market
CKH (1 HK): Intervention Towards Securing Participation
A Tender Offer of JTC by Affirma Capital
Hana Micron Split Cancellation: Trades Targeting Position Unwinding and Korea Discount Compression
Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision
LG CNS IPO Lockup Expiry – US$1.1bn Release, with PE Well in the Money
State-Level Regulatory Risks Pose Significant Challenges in TDC’s Acquisition of ProAssurance, Market Underestimates Potential Hurdles

[Japan Activism/M&A] Hogy Medical (3593) Reportedly Up For Auction – Totally Unsurprising

Hogy Medical (3593 JP)‘s founder passed and there was a re-arranging of Hoki family deckchairs in 2021. In 2022 there was a BIG buyback from the family at ¥3,130/share.
I discussed it here. I suggested that meant accretion, a family willing to sell, and an open register for a cheap company always heavily owned by value investors.
The stock went nowhere for 18mos as activists dallied. In 2024 it ran from ¥3,500 to ¥5,000 as Dalton bought 20%. Then they got a board seat. Now takeover noise.

GMO Internet (4784) – GMO Internet Parent Has Been SELLING In The Market

By Special Situation Investments

I have harped on the fact that GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) has to sell GMO Internet (4784 JP) shares with the goal to get 35% tradable shares by end-2025.
I have written about it here, here, here, and here. The price needs to be lower so the parent can launch a HUGE block. The stock must be less squeeze-able.
It turns out the parent started selling in the market the day after the Offering was cancelled. The setup is delicious now.

CKH (1 HK): Intervention Towards Securing Participation

By David Blennerhassett

Inviting a PRC investor to join the bidding consortium as a significant member, as opposed to a majority player, appears the panacea to get this port deal over the line.
Although CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) stopped short of naming the investor, China’s state-owned shipping conglomerate Cosco is widely expected/rumoured to join BlackRock and Swiss-Italian shipping company MSC.
Participation through effective intervention? Cosco’s involvement should all-but seal Chinese regulatory approvals. The green light from the US administration, the EU, and other jurisdictions, will pivot off how much involvement.

A Tender Offer of JTC by Affirma Capital

By Douglas Kim

On 28 July, it was announced that Affirma Capital will conduct a tender offer of JTC Inc/Fukuoka (950170 KS) which is a Japanese duty free operator listed on KOSDAQ.
This follows the exercise of a call option on all shares held by former JTC Chairman Gu Cheol-mo.
Despite some recent concerns about travelling to Japan due to Manga driven fears about earthquakes, there are some clear longer term signs that the global travelers visiting Japan are increasing.

Hana Micron Split Cancellation: Trades Targeting Position Unwinding and Korea Discount Compression

By Sanghyun Park

The split’s cancellation caught event-driven traders off guard, squeezing shorts and sparking short-covering flows, likely boosting the stock near term and removing governance overhang for a potential rerate.
Passive flow shifts as spinco’s planned KOSDAQ 150 inclusion is canceled, reversing early index rebalancing and pre-positioning by passive investors.
Hana Micron stays in the index, so no major passive outflows—just some trimming. Trade the short-cover pop, watch for passive cleanup dips as potential re-entry points.

Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Prosus’s €20.30/share offer for JET trades at a 1.1% gross spread with EU clearance due 11 August; implied success probability stands at ~97% based on current market pricing.
Offer extended to 1 October to align with EC timeline. Prosus proposes structural remedies—stake cut and board exit from Delivery Hero—to resolve competition overlap in five EU countries.
Estimated settlement by mid-October. New entrants see 5.5% annualized return; early investors could realize 9.6%. Downside risk to €12.43 implies a 38% loss if deal breaks unexpectedly.

LG CNS IPO Lockup Expiry – US$1.1bn Release, with PE Well in the Money

By Sumeet Singh

LG CNS (064400 KS) raised around US$825m in its Korea IPO in February 2025. LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company.
The shares didn’t do much at listing and have only recently moved higher to trade above its IPO price.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

State-Level Regulatory Risks Pose Significant Challenges in TDC’s Acquisition of ProAssurance, Market Underestimates Potential Hurdles

The merger involves TDC acquiring ProAssurance for $25/share, creating a combined 16% market share in medical malpractice insurance.
California regulatory concerns arise due to the combined entity’s 65% market share, potentially impacting merger approval.
TDC’s offer price was contingent on regulatory outcomes, with PRA rejecting a structure tying price to regulatory conditions.

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Jul 30

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Loans Secured Despite Tax Hike and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

UK: Loans Secured Despite Tax Hike
[WTI Options Weekly 2025/30] WTI Slips Again as Supply Concerns Outweigh Trade Optimism
CX Daily: Succession, Scandal and Bottled Water — the Real Battle at the Heart of Wahaha Court Case
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 July
[Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/30] Henry Hub Tumbled as Supply Surged and Sentiment Shifted
US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk
Bond Market Monitor: Thailand Unsmiled
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 July
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 July
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 July

UK: Loans Secured Despite Tax Hike

By Phil Rush

Credit extended its rebound far beyond expectations in June. Reformed stamp duty raises costs and housing tenure, but it hasn’t broken the housing or mortgage markets.
Demand for loans looks more resilient than banks expected amid easing monetary conditions. Refinancing may not have much effect on cash flow anymore.
Higher transaction costs probably won’t break expectations into a downwards spiral, but are now widely cited as a major hurdle, contributing to slower UK activity growth.

[WTI Options Weekly 2025/30] WTI Slips Again as Supply Concerns Outweigh Trade Optimism

By Suhas Reddy

WTI crude declined 1.4% for the week ending 25/Jul, pressured by oversupply concerns and renewed U.S. tariff threats, despite midweek gains from inventory draws and trade optimism.
The U.S. rig count fell by two to 542, marking its twelfth weekly fall in thirteen weeks. Oil rigs by seven to 415, marking its thirteenth consecutive weekly fall.
WTI OI PCR remained at 0.96 on 25/Jul compared to 18/Jul. Call OI inched up by 3.1% WoW, while put OI rose by 3.8%.

CX Daily: Succession, Scandal and Bottled Water — the Real Battle at the Heart of Wahaha Court Case

By Caixin Global

Wahaha / Cover Story: Succession, scandal and bottled water — the real battle at the heart of Wahaha court case
Funds /In Depth: China’s mutual fund minnows struggle to survive
Dam /: China names duo helming construction of world’s largest hydropower dam

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 July

India’s imported Group I heavy neutrals base oils cargo price strengthens relative to FOB Asia and Europe prices in July 2025.
India’s rising price-differential for Group I SN 500 follows drop in availability of the supplies from Iran especially in recent months.
India’s imports of Group I heavy neutrals fall to eighteen-month low in June 2025, mostly because of drop in supplies from Middle East.

[Henry Hub Options Weekly 2025/30] Henry Hub Tumbled as Supply Surged and Sentiment Shifted

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 25/Jul, Henry Hub dropped 12.8% on the back of mild weather forecasts, record output, and stagnant LNG flows.
For the week ending 18/Jul, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 23 Bcf, lower than analyst expectations of a 28 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.84 on 25/Jul compared to 18/Jul. Call OI grew by 6.5% WoW, while put OI rose by 3.2%.

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

By Prasenjit K. Basu

US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation.
FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun’25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY.
With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%.

Bond Market Monitor: Thailand Unsmiled

By Warut Promboon

We chose to objectively focus on Thailand’s institutional debacle in relation to the recent book called “Why Nations Fail”
Thai Baht (THB) yields have remained too low, relative to Thailand’s country risk.
This report is not so much about the low yield but rather the operating environment which we believe non-Thai investors can appreciate our local point of view.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 July

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices hold at elevated levels vs Singapore gasoil, even if lower than in Q2 2025.
Firm heavy-grade margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output, even amid signs of pick-up in surplus supplies.
Asia’s Group II heavy-grade prices hold at levels that keep open arbitrage from US and keep shut arbitrage to Americas.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 July

Global base oils prices turn more mixed relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices.
Light-grade margins face more pressure in Asia than in other markets.
Dynamic boosts incentive for adjustments in output in that market, points to more balanced fundamentals in other markets.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 July