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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Credit: Europe HY Trade Book – December 2023 – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Europe HY Trade Book – December 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Yuexiu Property


Europe HY Trade Book – December 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.


Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3
  • New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer
  • KOSPI 200 Futures Calendar Spread Trading: Latest on Year-End Dividend Record Date Changes
  • Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp
  • Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts’ “Fair” Offer
  • Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Rebalance: Same Rankings; Same Questions
  • Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Leaderboard: Third Time’s A Charm?
  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact
  • Focus on Leverage Reduction


Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3

By Travis Lundy


New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)  announced a proposed counter/over-bid for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). ¥1800/share for minorities and a better (undefined) outcome for Pasona Group (2168 JP)
  • This throws the cat amongst the pigeons as it is unsolicited, for 100% not just to get Pasona’s stake, and it will require Benefit One recommend or not.
  • For Pasona, this deal structure would likely increase the net result from the stake sale, possibly substantially so. It’s in the details. 

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) is JPY1,800 (floor price) + share of Pasona Group (2168 JP)’s TOB tax benefits.
  • The pre-conditions relate to the Board recommendation, Pasona support, and M3 Inc (2413 JP) offer not completing its partial offer. The tender offer starts in mid-January 2024 (20 business days).
  • While the Dai-ichi Life offer is light, M3’s engagement in a bidding war is low. The proposed minimum acceptance condition (15.51% ownership ratio) requires a 32% minority acceptance rate.

KOSPI 200 Futures Calendar Spread Trading: Latest on Year-End Dividend Record Date Changes

By Sanghyun Park

  • It would be prudent to anticipate that a considerable portion of these 636 companies will indeed adjust their dividend record dates, effective from this year’s year-end dividends.
  • One notable setup gaining attention is calendar spread trading for the KOSPI 200 futures in anticipation of an upward trend in the KOSPI 200 futures market towards the year’s end.
  • This entails buying the near-month and selling the far-month, liquidating when the price difference reverts. Traders pay attention to potential far-month divergence due to the shift in dividend record dates.

Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp

By Travis Lundy

  • The flip-side of the Toho Takeout of Rakutenchi – Buying a Real Estate Portfolio at a 50% Premium but 0.7x NAV. is the Hankyu-Hanshin deal to buy OS Corp (9637).
  • Tokyo-Based Toho buys out Kansai-based Hankyu-Hanshin’s stake in Tokyo-based Rakutenchi. HH buys out Toho’s stake in Kobe-based OS Corp. This is a “TOB Swap”. HH owns 21.7% of Toho too.
  • Like Rakutenchi, it is being done at a PBR higher than 1, but a decent discount to NAV. But this one is horribly, horribly illiquid (1,000 shs/day) 

Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts’ “Fair” Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yesterday, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) made a $3bn scrip offer Aussie-listed equities manager Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).
  • Under the indicative terms, PPT shareholders receive one-third of the Offer in SOL shares, and two-thirds in PPT’s asset management arm via an in-specie spin-off.
  • PPT rejected the proposal as it undervalues PPT, its corporate trust and wealth management businesses; and it offers SOL shares as consideration. But the Offer is not without merit.

Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Rebalance: Same Rankings; Same Questions

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in March 2024.
  • Based on the current data, I see only one low-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DEL.

Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Leaderboard: Third Time’s A Charm?

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the March 2024 index rebalance.
  • Based on the current numbers, our estimate shows there could be one ADD and one DEL but there are some question marks due to the past index review outcomes.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.

Focus on Leverage Reduction

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) plans to divest non-strategic assets in Ireland (for around €1.1 billion) and later in Austria in order to reduce its debt.
  • The new strategy focuses on portfolio rationalisation due to the higher debt costs. Cellnex seeks expansion in certain markets, but without taking on too much debt.
  • Using multiples EV/EBITDA, my base-case fair value estimate (pro-forma Ireland divestment) is €48.73; a reduction in leverage should drive multiple expansion. Long.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Kuaishou: A Leading Short Video Platform & Content Community in China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Kuaishou: A Leading Short Video Platform & Content Community in China
  • Nio Gears Up to Make Its Own EVs After Permit Approval, Equipment Purchases
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Extending Lead Vs. Samsung with 3nm Tech; Hon Hai Result Positive for Apple
  • 2024 High Conviction: Sapporo Poised for a Strong Year Driven by Tax Revision & Investor Activism
  • Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February
  • Malaysian Banks Screener; RHB Bank and Maybank Are Buys
  • Deliveroo – Key takeaways
  • paragon – Navigating the road to growth
  • Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Provides Important Update on EndoCheck Diagnostic Test
  • Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929JP) – Focusing on the Quality of Earnings


Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Kuaishou: A Leading Short Video Platform & Content Community in China

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome Kuaishou Technology’s Head of Capital Market and Investor Relations, Matthew Huaxia Zhao.

In the upcoming webinar, Matthew will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Eric Wen . The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 12 December 2023, 17:00 SGT.

About Kuaishou Technology

Kuaishou is a leading content community and social platform with its mission to be the most customer-obsessed company in the world. Kuaishou has relentlessly been focusing on serving its customers and creating value for them through the continual innovation and optimization of its products and services. At Kuaishou, any user can chronicle and share their life experiences through short videos and live streams and showcase their talents. Working closely with content creators and businesses together, Kuaishou provides product and service offerings that address various user needs that arise naturally, including entertainment, online marketing services, e-commerce, online games, online knowledge-sharing, and more.


Nio Gears Up to Make Its Own EVs After Permit Approval, Equipment Purchases

By Caixin Global

  • Electric-vehicle (EV) startup Nio Inc. looks set to begin building its cars independently, announcing plans to acquire two manufacturing assets shortly after a subsidiary was added to a government database for companies approved to produce vehicles.
  • Nio on Tuesday entered into “definitive agreements” to buy equipment and assets from two “advanced manufacturing” bases from state-owned automaker Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp. Ltd. (JAC) (600418.SH +1.67%) for approximately 3.16 billion yuan ($443 million), excluding tax, according to a Hong Kong Stock Exchange filing accompanying its third quarter results the same day.
  • JAC has been producing all of Nio’s cars on a contract basis since 2018.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Extending Lead Vs. Samsung with 3nm Tech; Hon Hai Result Positive for Apple

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Is TSMC Leaving Samsung in the Dust with its New 3nm Process Technology?
  • Our Pick Himax a Top Loser… Apple Lens Supplier, Yageo Peer, and Taiwan AI Chip Designer Top Winners
  • Positive Sign for Apple Revenue — Hon Hai November Revenue Higher Than Expected, Guides for Better December

2024 High Conviction: Sapporo Poised for a Strong Year Driven by Tax Revision & Investor Activism

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Buoyed by strong post-pandemic domestic consumption and the return of inbound visitors to Japan, Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP) has been firing on all cylinders in recent quarters.
  • Business fundamentals for next year look strong, with the company positioned to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.
  • Additionally, activist investor 3D Investment Partners could successfully advance their proposals to divest the Real Estate business.

Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February

By Neil Glynn

  • The European Commission has confirmed it aims to make a preliminary decision on the proposed Korean Air/Asiana merger by 14 February.
  • Plans to sell Asiana Cargo may struggle to find a buyer, while the US has also highlighted concerns regarding the merger, and Japan has yet to provide approval.
  • We continue to highlight there is a strong argument for Korean Air continuing alone, as Asiana continues to struggle to achieve profitability, with a stretched balance sheet.

Malaysian Banks Screener; RHB Bank and Maybank Are Buys

By Victor Galliano

  • Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep value play RHB Bank on the buy list and switch our prior CIMB for Maybank
  • RHB Bank is our top pick for its undemanding PE and PBV whilst being second from top in post-provision profitability; its high CET1 ratio has not held back its ROE
  • We drop CIMB from the buy list for its weaker credit quality and low NPL coverage; we upgrade quality pick Maybank to buy for its attractive valuations

Deliveroo – Key takeaways

By Edison Investment Research

Deliveroo’s (ROO’s) November capital markets day (CMD) saw its leadership team present initiatives aimed at progressing the customer value proposition (CVP) to drive revenue growth and improve profitability. ROO’s strategy is to unlock growth through greater market penetration and by growing customer loyalty via a hyperlocal approach, hosting both national and local brands on its platform. The shares are down 65% since the IPO in 2021, with trading affected by the weaker consumer environment amongst other factors. ROO trades at a discount to its peers, although delivery on financial targets and the tailwind of an improving consumer environment could enable the discount to narrow.


paragon – Navigating the road to growth

By Edison Investment Research

While we believe H223 represents a pause in growth at paragon’s ongoing automotive operations, we are cutting our near-term EBITDA margin contribution from the Electronics segment. As a result, we lower our FY23e and FY24e sales estimates by 2% and 3% and EBITDA by 25% and 17% respectively, reducing our DCF valuation to €9.4/share.


Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Provides Important Update on EndoCheck Diagnostic Test

By Water Tower Research

  • Aspira Women’s Health announced today that it has completed the design of the EndoCheck test based on the analysis of samples received from The University of Oxford in October.
  • This data shows EndoCheck to be a high-performing blood test for localized endometriosis, including ovarian endometriosis masses known as endometrioma.
  • Endometrioma is a localized form of endometriosis that has formed an ovarian mass. It is one of the most common types of endometriosis.

Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929JP) – Focusing on the Quality of Earnings

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • A positive surprise – Q1-3 FY12/2023 results highlighted the positive demand environment for AZN’s services, with Inheritance consulting sales growing 47.1% YoY driven by new customer acquisitions.
  • The company’s aim to improve the quality of earnings is demonstrated by improvements in underlying profitability with the sales mix shifting towards Wealth Consulting, while Real Estate Solutions provides cross-selling opportunities and strong access to engage with new customers.
  • The company has revised its FY12/2023 earnings estimates and on track to book record-high earnings, and has currently maintained its FY dividend forecast of ¥41 per share.

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Daily Brief Macro: What Do They Actually Mean by Inflation? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • What Do They Actually Mean by Inflation?
  • EM by EM #33: Early Hikers = Early Steepeners?
  • Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio
  • EIA Watch: ALL TIME HIGH Oil demand, but so what?
  • CX Daily: China-Latin America Ties Deepen Amid Boom in Cross-Border Auto Trade, E-Commerce
  • Greek Economy – Quarterly Macro Note
  • When Rising Real Rates Are Not Dovish


What Do They Actually Mean by Inflation?

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Not too long ago, the Fed Chairman forced us to focus on a very specific inflation figure, the 3-month annualized Core Services ex-Housing CPI. But not anymore.
  • Perhaps this is because of the fact that this measure has risen for four consecutive months and reached 4.9% in October, significantly higher than both headline and core inflation.
  • Another inflation metric has faded into the background. Powell’s inflation measure to justify a 0.75% hike back in 2022 rose to its highest level in 15 years in November!

EM by EM #33: Early Hikers = Early Steepeners?

By Emil Moller

  • The early hikers club comprising e.g. Brazil and Mexico could be a decent steepener trade from here as long as FX vol remains relatively muted
  • Receiving rates in Brazil, Poland or India amidst this global bond party makes sense
  • As markets have outpaced central banks and vanilla economists in pricing in future rate cuts while eagerly purchasing bonds, the question that arises is how to effectively navigate this transition from a period of rapid buying to an anticipated rate cutting cycle in the emerging markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

  • With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.
  • To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.
  • These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

EIA Watch: ALL TIME HIGH Oil demand, but so what?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our weekly EIA watch, where we look at the implied energy demand numbers in the US economy and pair them with trends on the supply side.
  • Price action remains abysmal in US energy markets (if you are bullish that is), and we are admittedly caught wrong-footed here after otherwise strong price action ahead of the OPEC meeting last week.
  • Conclusions up front:– Weekly numbers on Oil demand reached an ALL TIME HIGH in week 48– Nat Gas flows trends were largely reversed towards the end of the month and now look normal– Congestion is still rising compared to usual seasonal patterns meaning that the transportation fuel demand is strong– Unless the EIA numbers are 100% out of whack with the reality, the US demand side is NOT behind the weakness in energy space. Let’s have a look at the details.

CX Daily: China-Latin America Ties Deepen Amid Boom in Cross-Border Auto Trade, E-Commerce

By Caixin Global

  • China-Latin America / In Depth: China-Latin America ties deepen amid boom in cross-border auto trade, e-commerce
  • Social security /: China to allow social security fund to buy domestic pension products, futures

  • Citic /: China picks new party chief for Citic Group


Greek Economy – Quarterly Macro Note

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • In 2022, Greece experienced a significant rise in its GDP growth, as Real GDP (2015 Prices) reached €190.65 billion, reflecting a 5.56% increase compared to the previous year.
  • Progressing onward, the OECD, IMF, and EU have forecasted average growth rates of 2.34% for 2023 and 1.92% for 2024.
  • Despite steady increases in nominal values of Public Debt, as indicated by both ELSTAT data and IMF-EU Commission projections, there holds a favorable aspect in the declining Debt-to-GDP ratio based on projections.

When Rising Real Rates Are Not Dovish

By Phil Rush

  • Some unrealistically academic policymakers worry that rising real rates from disinflation will excessively tighten monetary conditions. We firmly believe they are mistaken.
  • Cost shocks eroded disposable income, but this real income and expenditure squeeze is fading. The income channel is far more important than the interest rate one.
  • Uncertain policymakers should rely more on the data than misapplied theories. Resilient demand and persistent inflation would tell them to wait longer before cutting.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Mini Kospi 200 Futures, LG CNS, Korean Air Lines and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI 200 Futures Calendar Spread Trading: Latest on Year-End Dividend Record Date Changes
  • 2024 Major IPOs Pipeline in Korea
  • Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February


KOSPI 200 Futures Calendar Spread Trading: Latest on Year-End Dividend Record Date Changes

By Sanghyun Park

  • It would be prudent to anticipate that a considerable portion of these 636 companies will indeed adjust their dividend record dates, effective from this year’s year-end dividends.
  • One notable setup gaining attention is calendar spread trading for the KOSPI 200 futures in anticipation of an upward trend in the KOSPI 200 futures market towards the year’s end.
  • This entails buying the near-month and selling the far-month, liquidating when the price difference reverts. Traders pay attention to potential far-month divergence due to the shift in dividend record dates.

2024 Major IPOs Pipeline in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • This is our 9th “Annual Edition of the Major Korean IPOs Pipeline Preview” at Smartkarma.
  • This insight will feature 50 of the biggest potential IPOs in Korea in 2024.
  • These 50 IPOs in Korea are likely to represent more than 80% of all capital raised through IPOs in Korea next year.

Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February

By Neil Glynn

  • The European Commission has confirmed it aims to make a preliminary decision on the proposed Korean Air/Asiana merger by 14 February.
  • Plans to sell Asiana Cargo may struggle to find a buyer, while the US has also highlighted concerns regarding the merger, and Japan has yet to provide approval.
  • We continue to highlight there is a strong argument for Korean Air continuing alone, as Asiana continues to struggle to achieve profitability, with a stretched balance sheet.

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Daily Brief Australia: Perpetual Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts’ “Fair” Offer


Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts’ “Fair” Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yesterday, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) made a $3bn scrip offer Aussie-listed equities manager Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).
  • Under the indicative terms, PPT shareholders receive one-third of the Offer in SOL shares, and two-thirds in PPT’s asset management arm via an in-specie spin-off.
  • PPT rejected the proposal as it undervalues PPT, its corporate trust and wealth management businesses; and it offers SOL shares as consideration. But the Offer is not without merit.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Yuexiu Property and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Yuexiu Property


Morning Views Asia: Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Benefit One Inc, Pasona Group, O S Co Ltd, Sapporo Holdings, Rakuten Group , COPRO-HOLDINGS Co Ltd, Aoyama Zaisan Networks Co Lt and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3
  • New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)
  • Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer
  • Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp
  • 2024 High Conviction: Sapporo Poised for a Strong Year Driven by Tax Revision & Investor Activism
  • Cash Generation from the Sale of Subsidiary Shares Is the Default, but the Issue Remains Postponed
  • 2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)
  • Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929JP) – Focusing on the Quality of Earnings


Dai-Ichi Life (8750) Proposes a Full Takeover of Benefit One (2412), Overbidding M3

By Travis Lundy


New Deal for Benefit One (2168) Could Mean Lots More Money for Pasona (2168)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)  announced a proposed counter/over-bid for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP). ¥1800/share for minorities and a better (undefined) outcome for Pasona Group (2168 JP)
  • This throws the cat amongst the pigeons as it is unsolicited, for 100% not just to get Pasona’s stake, and it will require Benefit One recommend or not.
  • For Pasona, this deal structure would likely increase the net result from the stake sale, possibly substantially so. It’s in the details. 

Benefit One (2412 JP): Dai-Ichi Life Counters M3 with a Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer for Benefit One Inc (2412 JP) is JPY1,800 (floor price) + share of Pasona Group (2168 JP)’s TOB tax benefits.
  • The pre-conditions relate to the Board recommendation, Pasona support, and M3 Inc (2413 JP) offer not completing its partial offer. The tender offer starts in mid-January 2024 (20 business days).
  • While the Dai-ichi Life offer is light, M3’s engagement in a bidding war is low. The proposed minimum acceptance condition (15.51% ownership ratio) requires a 32% minority acceptance rate.

Hankyu Hanshin Takeout of OS Corp

By Travis Lundy

  • The flip-side of the Toho Takeout of Rakutenchi – Buying a Real Estate Portfolio at a 50% Premium but 0.7x NAV. is the Hankyu-Hanshin deal to buy OS Corp (9637).
  • Tokyo-Based Toho buys out Kansai-based Hankyu-Hanshin’s stake in Tokyo-based Rakutenchi. HH buys out Toho’s stake in Kobe-based OS Corp. This is a “TOB Swap”. HH owns 21.7% of Toho too.
  • Like Rakutenchi, it is being done at a PBR higher than 1, but a decent discount to NAV. But this one is horribly, horribly illiquid (1,000 shs/day) 

2024 High Conviction: Sapporo Poised for a Strong Year Driven by Tax Revision & Investor Activism

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Buoyed by strong post-pandemic domestic consumption and the return of inbound visitors to Japan, Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP) has been firing on all cylinders in recent quarters.
  • Business fundamentals for next year look strong, with the company positioned to benefit the most from Japan’s liquor tax revisions.
  • Additionally, activist investor 3D Investment Partners could successfully advance their proposals to divest the Real Estate business.

Cash Generation from the Sale of Subsidiary Shares Is the Default, but the Issue Remains Postponed

By Aki Matsumoto

  • By canceling the IPO of Rakuten Securities, it is assumed that Rakuten Group wanted to generate cash on schedule even if it was 10 billion yen less than originally planned.
  • Although Rakuten Group could generate cash in the predetermined time. it remains unclear whether the company has secured a path to improve cash flow in the pending cell phone business.
  • If Rakuten Securities went to public, another parent-subsidiary listing would have been created, so the cancellation of the IPO can be evaluated as positive for the quality of the market.

2Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • COPRO-HOLDINGS. Co., Ltd., (COPRO) announced its 2Q FY24/3 results after market close on Tuesday, November 14, 2023.
  • Key consolidated figures included net sales of ¥11,137 mn (+28.5% YoY), operating profit of ¥737 mn (+56.9% YoY), ordinary profit of ¥810 mn (+71.8% YoY), and net income attributable to the parent company of ¥510 mn (+81.9% YoY).
  • Sales were largely in line with initial forecasts, while profits were 61.4% higher than initial forecasts, mainly due to lower back-office-related labor costs. 

Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929JP) – Focusing on the Quality of Earnings

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • A positive surprise – Q1-3 FY12/2023 results highlighted the positive demand environment for AZN’s services, with Inheritance consulting sales growing 47.1% YoY driven by new customer acquisitions.
  • The company’s aim to improve the quality of earnings is demonstrated by improvements in underlying profitability with the sales mix shifting towards Wealth Consulting, while Real Estate Solutions provides cross-selling opportunities and strong access to engage with new customers.
  • The company has revised its FY12/2023 earnings estimates and on track to book record-high earnings, and has currently maintained its FY dividend forecast of ¥41 per share.

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Daily Brief United States: Aspira Women’s Health, Culp Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Provides Important Update on EndoCheck Diagnostic Test
  • Culp, Inc. – Revising Estimates After 2QFY24 Positive Surprise


Aspira Women’s Health, Inc. – Provides Important Update on EndoCheck Diagnostic Test

By Water Tower Research

  • Aspira Women’s Health announced today that it has completed the design of the EndoCheck test based on the analysis of samples received from The University of Oxford in October.
  • This data shows EndoCheck to be a high-performing blood test for localized endometriosis, including ovarian endometriosis masses known as endometrioma.
  • Endometrioma is a localized form of endometriosis that has formed an ovarian mass. It is one of the most common types of endometriosis.

Culp, Inc. – Revising Estimates After 2QFY24 Positive Surprise

By Water Tower Research

  • We are revising our earnings estimates following Culp’s 2QFY24 earnings release and conference call.
  • Management’s 3QFY24 guidance suggests that our prior estimate was overly optimistic about the pace of improvement.
  • The objective of operating profitability by 4Q remains intact and achievable. We expect, and are modeling, positive net income in FY25.

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Daily Brief India: Bharat Heavy Electricals, Ircon International, Entero Healthcare Solutions Limited, Zomato, Nesco Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact
  • IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain
  • Entero Healthcare Pre-IPO – Has Been Scaling up Rapidly Aided by a Flurry of Acquisitions
  • Zomato Placement – SVF’s Overhang Will Be Lifted Post-Deal, Momentum on the Stock Remains Strong
  • Nesco: Strong Q2FY24 Earnings


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.

IRCON Placement – Opportunistic Monetisation of a 2.5x YTD Gain

By Clarence Chu

  • The Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise US$155m from trimming a portion of its stake in Ircon International (IRCON IN), assuming the deal upsizes.
  • Assuming the deal upsizes, while it would represent 8% of the firm’s current shares outstanding, it would only represent 3.8 days of its three month ADV, given its strong liquidity.
  • Given that it isn’t the first time the GoI has sold its stake in IRCON, the selldown here should be expected, in our view.

Entero Healthcare Pre-IPO – Has Been Scaling up Rapidly Aided by a Flurry of Acquisitions

By Clarence Chu

  • Entero Healthcare Solutions Limited (2294842D IN) is looking to raise US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The IPO will consist of both a primary and secondary component.
  • Entero Healthcare Solutions (Entero) is a healthcare products distributor in India.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Zomato Placement – SVF’s Overhang Will Be Lifted Post-Deal, Momentum on the Stock Remains Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) is looking to raise US$135m from selling its remaining stake in Zomato (ZOMATO IN).
  • Since receiving shares from Zomato’s acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares, Softbank has been busy trimming its stake in Zomato. The stake sale now will be a cleanup one.
  • Representing just 1.2 days of Zomato’s three month ADV, the deal here would be easily digested by the firm.

Nesco: Strong Q2FY24 Earnings

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Nesco reported strong growth in BEC revenues led by Q2 being a seasonally strong quarter for the exhibition business. Even in YoY terms, the growth was decent at 8%.
  • Nesco IT Park revenues also jumped by 14% QoQ, suggesting that the occupancy level in Tower 3 has gone up from 82% earlier.
  • Nesco Foods business continues to grow rapidly as the new Food Court and Restaurants have seen strong traction. Revenue in Foods business has more than doubled YoY.

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