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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 17
0

Daily Brief China: Dream International, Alibaba Group Holding , Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management, Sino Biopharmaceutical, Unisplendour Guhan Group A and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble
  • Asian Buybacks Accelerating; Consistent Share Repurchasers Offer Safety
  • Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management – Pain Points in Operation Mode and Profit Margin
  • Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK): Acquisition To Enrich Pipeline and Enhance International Influence
  • Unisplendour Corp A/H Listing – Growth Slowing, Margins Dropping

Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble

By Sameer Taneja

  • We believe that toymakers are experiencing a bubble like rally led by Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) and Hasbro Inc (HAS US) which raised forecasts recently. 
  • Dream International (1126 HK) has returned >200% since liberation day tariffs were declared on April 2nd 2025 and now trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (vs 3.7x when we initiated). 
  •  “Never look a gift horse in the mouth” ! .We would take some money off the table here as toy stocks go through periods of cyclicality due restocking/destocking.

Asian Buybacks Accelerating; Consistent Share Repurchasers Offer Safety

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Asian buybacks, dominated by HK, China and Korea, are skyrocketing.  In H125, buybacks more than doubled from their full year 2024 levels in HK/China and increased 40% in Korea. 
  • We screen companies repurchasing consistently, with total buyback of minimum $1bn and buyback over 2024-25 of at least 2% of present market cap, yielding companies in HK(11), Korea(6), Philippines(2), Singapore(1).
  • Top five repurchasers are Alibaba, Tencent, China Communication Construction, AIA, Netease. These, barring the third, are up more than 20% this year. Share price support from buybacks do seem solid.

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management – Pain Points in Operation Mode and Profit Margin

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although the revenue is growing, net profit margin is low, which is due to Xiao Noodles’ operational model, high costs, products and brand positioning. Key performance indicators declined in 2024.
  • If competition becomes increasingly fierce and Xiao Noodles’ price reduction strategy continues, the investment return period would be longer, which will affect the Company’s future expansion plans and performance growth.
  • Based on our forecast, pre-IPO valuation of RMB3 billion is expensive. If Xiao Noodles is unable to reverse the trend of declining performance, it will face valuation discounts after IPO.

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK): Acquisition To Enrich Pipeline and Enhance International Influence

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) is acquiring the balance 95% equity interests in LaNova Medicines for net consideration of $500M to be funded by internal resources and bank borrowings.
  • With focus on oncology and differentiated capability spanning monoclonal antibodies, bispecific antibody, and ADC drug, LaNova is a strategic fit for Sino Biopharma.
  • The acquisition will enhance Sino Biopharma’s reputation and image in the global pharmaceutical industry, and promote the conclusion of potential international transactions in the future.

Unisplendour Corp A/H Listing – Growth Slowing, Margins Dropping

By Sumeet Singh

  • Unisplendour Corporation Limited (000938 CH), an ICT infrastructure products provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • UC designs and sells a diverse portfolio of ICT infrastructure products, covering the entire digital solutions industry chain.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief ESG: Gender Inequality in Politics Is Preventing Implementation of Measures to Achieve Gender Equality and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Gender Inequality in Politics Is Preventing Implementation of Measures to Achieve Gender Equality

Gender Inequality in Politics Is Preventing Implementation of Measures to Achieve Gender Equality

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Japan’s overall gender gap index for 2025 remained unchanged from 2024 (118th place), with only slight improvements. The tendency toward significant gender disparities in politics and economics remains unchanged.
  • Gender wage gaps are caused by the low percentage of women in managerial positions, and the reason for this is that women bear the brunt of childcare and housework.
  • Political leadership is necessary to reform traditional gender inequality values and implement measures that allow women to continue working after giving birth and raising children.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Jardine Matheson Holdings, Delta Air Lines, GFL Environmental , Kinik Company, J Com Holdings, Copa Holdings Sa Class A, Oswal Pumps and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive
  • Delta Air Lines: Its Positive Outlook On Corporate Travel & Sector Demand May Not Be ENOUGH To Warrant Optimism!
  • GFL Environmental: A Focus On Profitability with Smart Buyouts, EPR Expansion & A Renewable Push!
  • TechChain Insights: Kinik – The Hidden Enabler Behind TSMC’s Sub-2nm Push
  • J Com Holdings (2462 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update
  • Copa Holdings Just Locked in 57 New Aircrafts—Is This the Smartest Fleet Move in Emerging Markets?
  • Oswal Pumps Ltd- IPO to the Rescue

Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

By David Blennerhassett

  • Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held Hongkong Land (HKL SP), JMH’s largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. 
  • HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management – read deleveraging.
  • The recent appointment of PAG’s Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That’s not unreasonable.

Delta Air Lines: Its Positive Outlook On Corporate Travel & Sector Demand May Not Be ENOUGH To Warrant Optimism!

By Baptista Research

  • Delta Air Lines’ recent financial results for the June quarter of 2025 present a mixed picture of performance, underscored by robust operational execution and challenging market dynamics.
  • The company reported a pretax income of $1.8 billion, or earnings of $2.10 per share, on record quarterly revenue of $15.5 billion, which was in line with its April guidance.
  • Despite economic uncertainties, the airline achieved an operating margin of 13.2% and generated $700 million in free cash flow, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.

GFL Environmental: A Focus On Profitability with Smart Buyouts, EPR Expansion & A Renewable Push!

By Baptista Research

  • GFL Environmental Inc.’s latest quarterly results present a nuanced picture of its current financial standing and strategic direction.
  • The company reported a 12.5% year-over-year increase in revenue, which totaled $1.56 billion for the first quarter.
  • This outperformed the company’s initial 2025 guidance and is attributed to several factors, including effective pricing strategies that achieved a price increase of 5.7%, surpassing their planned estimates.

TechChain Insights: Kinik – The Hidden Enabler Behind TSMC’s Sub-2nm Push

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • We Engaged with Kinik Recently to Get Insight on Activity Strength for TSMC’s Expansion into Nodes 2nm and Below
  • Diamond Tooling: Quietly Powering Advanced Logic; Kinik Recently Running at Max Capacity for Key DBU Business Segment… also at 100% for SBU Segment
  • Takeaways — Kinik as a Concentrated Play on Advanced Node Transitions… Also, We Believe Signs Remain Positive for TSMC’s Recent Activity Momentum

J Com Holdings (2462 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 3.1% YoY to JPY62.3bn, while operating profit decreased by 11.5% YoY to JPY3.0bn.
  • Child-Rearing Support Service revenue rose 8.6% YoY to JPY33.0bn, but operating profit fell 11.3% YoY.
  • Comprehensive Human Resources Service revenue declined 5.6% YoY to JPY20.6bn, yet operating profit increased by 1.0% YoY.

Copa Holdings Just Locked in 57 New Aircrafts—Is This the Smartest Fleet Move in Emerging Markets?

By Baptista Research

  • Copa Holdings reported strong financial results for the first quarter, highlighted by a significant operating margin of 23.8%.
  • The company’s performance was characterized by growth in passenger traffic and an increase in capacity.
  • Additionally, the load factor improved to 86.4%, indicating efficient utilization of available capacity.

Oswal Pumps Ltd- IPO to the Rescue

By Nitin Mangal

  • Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN)  came out with an IPO in June to raise fresh equity of INR 8.9 bn and offer for sale of 8.1 mn shares. 
  • They are among the few fully integrated Turnkey Solar Pumping System providers in India, manufacturing solar pumps, modules, controllers, and offering complete installation services for agricultural applications. 
  • Forensic takeaways include misstatement of cash flow, absence of details on the order book, possible margin and growth concerns and certain violations of regulations and regular delay in filing dues.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Firms Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Firms Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is
  • PointsBet (PBH AU): The Battle of Takeover Offers Commences
  • Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover
  • BMPS–Mediobanca: Offer Live, Market Still Says No

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Firms Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 7th May, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, made a US$25.66/ADS non-binding proposal for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
  • Yesterday, Geely tweaked and firmed terms at US$26.87/ADS, a 4.7% bump to the original NBIO, and ~3.4% below ZEEKR’s last close.  ZEEKR promptly gained 2.4% on the news.
  • ZEEKR shareholders also have the option to receive Geely scrip. Given Geely’s and Li Shufu’s (10.61%) holdings – neither are required to abstain on voting – this Offer is done. 

PointsBet (PBH AU): The Battle of Takeover Offers Commences

By Arun George

  • BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has despatched the bidder’s statement for PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) takeover offer. The offer is scheduled to run from July 31 to September 8.
  • BBT continues to clutch at straws by claiming its offer is superior to Mixi’s A$1.20 all-cash offer. The Mixi scheme results suggest that BBT has limited support from PBH shareholders.
  • BBT will struggle to gain material acceptance, but hints at possible revised terms. Mixi Inc (2121 JP) will also need to reconsider its offer terms to see off BBT. 

Krungthai Card (KTC TB): Buy With Both Hands As Pledged Shares Rollover

By David Blennerhassett

BMPS–Mediobanca: Offer Live, Market Still Says No

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Market assigns low odds to the current terms, with most of the expected value tied to deal failure or a materially higher exchange ratio.
  • BMPS now holds effective control, but the –3.5% spread shows investors doubt the deal will close as is without further sweetening.
  • No arbitrage setup is attractive, as convergence to the implied offer still implies a locked-in loss for Mediobanca holders at current market prices.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): EP 125: What’s Going on with RISC-V? Update on Intel and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • EP 125: What’s Going on with RISC-V? Update on Intel, Everything is AI!
  • Ohayo Japan | Trump V Powell Volatility
  • China Heavy Machinery Sector: Anticipating More Upside
  • Australia Banks – Insolvencies Data to 30 June 2025 Suggest Weak and Worsening Credit Metrics.
  • Japan Morning Connection: Couche-Tard Sounds the Retreat on Its Advances for 7&I

EP 125: What’s Going on with RISC-V? Update on Intel, Everything is AI!

By The Circuit

  • Global Foundries acquiring MIPS, sparking conversation about RISC V’s role in the ecosystem
  • Global Foundries focusing on offering IP and services in niche markets with potential for growth
  • MIPS will continue to operate independently, providing turnkey solutions for RISC V and potential customizations for customers

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Ohayo Japan | Trump V Powell Volatility

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks rallied from session lows to close higher on Wednesday after President Trump denied plans to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
  • US June Producer Price Index showing no monthly change and a 2.3% annual rise, below estimates, eased inflation concerns,
  • IHI targets an operating profit margin of 11% by March 2030, up from 8.8% in FY25, driven by improved profitability in its defence business

China Heavy Machinery Sector: Anticipating More Upside

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Australia Banks – Insolvencies Data to 30 June 2025 Suggest Weak and Worsening Credit Metrics.

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The HFD from ASIC on insolvencies in Australia points to a weak credit metric environment for Australian banks. 
  • Some banks report rising bad loans but relatively stable credit costs, which tends to not last indefinitely. 
  • Far worse insolvencies in many sectors YoY to 30 June should be a window on higher impairment costs for Australian banks.

Japan Morning Connection: Couche-Tard Sounds the Retreat on Its Advances for 7&I

By Andrew Jackson

  • Cautious ASML guidance sets dour tone to start but weakness for semi’s limited.
  • JNJ beats handily thanks to FX and medtech which should cause pharma and likes of Terumo to squeeze off the bell.
  • 7&I likely to be weak to start but unlikely there was too much residual expectation priced in after a difficult road for CT.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief ECM: SBI US$3bn QIP – No Surprises – Not the World’s Best Kept Secret and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • SBI US$3bn QIP – No Surprises – Not the World’s Best Kept Secret
  • Will A Saudi Arabian Investment Company Save Kum Yang From Delisting?
  • Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of the Next Semiconductor Solutions Company
  • ICICI Pru AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management – Pain Points in Operation Mode and Profit Margin
  • Unisplendour Corp A/H Listing – Growth Slowing, Margins Dropping

SBI US$3bn QIP – No Surprises – Not the World’s Best Kept Secret

By Sumeet Singh

  • State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) plans to raise around US$3bn via a QIP. The deal is very well flagged and we wrote on it last week.
  • Although the stock has been running up a bit going into the deal and the previous deal didn’t do well.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Will A Saudi Arabian Investment Company Save Kum Yang From Delisting?

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss whether a Saudi Arabian investment company (SKAEEB) could save Kum Yang (001570 KS) from delisting.
  • There are several aspects of this deal with SKAEEB that are a bit fishy. 
  • 1) A 50% Market Premium is Not Justified; 2) Does SKAEEB have enough money? 3) Control does not change

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of the Next Semiconductor Solutions Company

By IPO Boutique

  • The company describes itself as a pioneer and leading provider of ultra-low power semiconductor solutions designed to address the significant power consumption challenges of general purpose and AI compute.
  • For the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, they generated net sales of $15.7 million and $15.2 million, respectively.
  • The sector in which this company operates is one that is in favor. Powering the AI trade is one that investors are highly engaged in at the moment.

ICICI Pru AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • ICICI Prudential AMC (570643Z IN) (IPru AMC) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by a consortium of banks.
  • IPru AMC is an asset management company involved in managing mutual funds, providing portfolio management services, managing alternative investment funds, and providing advisory services to offshore clients.
  • The IPO is entirely an offer for sale by one of the promoters, Prudential Corporation Holdings Limited. 

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management – Pain Points in Operation Mode and Profit Margin

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although the revenue is growing, net profit margin is low, which is due to Xiao Noodles’ operational model, high costs, products and brand positioning. Key performance indicators declined in 2024.
  • If competition becomes increasingly fierce and Xiao Noodles’ price reduction strategy continues, the investment return period would be longer, which will affect the Company’s future expansion plans and performance growth.
  • Based on our forecast, pre-IPO valuation of RMB3 billion is expensive. If Xiao Noodles is unable to reverse the trend of declining performance, it will face valuation discounts after IPO.

Unisplendour Corp A/H Listing – Growth Slowing, Margins Dropping

By Sumeet Singh

  • Unisplendour Corporation Limited (000938 CH), an ICT infrastructure products provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • UC designs and sells a diverse portfolio of ICT infrastructure products, covering the entire digital solutions industry chain.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nissan Motor
  • UST yields jumped 4-6 bps across the curve yesterday, as the benign core CPI data pared market expectations for Fed easing. Feddated OIS are now pricing in 43 bps of rate cuts this year (vs. 49 bps as of Monday), with the first cut expected in October. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 4 bps to 3.94%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 5 bps to 4.48%.
  • Equities were mixed. The S&P 500 declined 0.4% to 6,244, although the Nasdaq rose 0.2% to 20,678. In the US, the June CPI inched up to 2.7% y-o-y (2.6% e / 2.4% p) and 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.1% p).

U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage

By Leandro Gubler

  • Brazilian Credits in Our Coverage Show Resilience, as U.S. Tariffs Likely to Have a Modest Impact Despite Limited Macro Policy Flexibility
  • Suzano is most exposed to U.S. tariffs, but global scale, cost leadership, and FX tailwinds help cushion the impact. Gerdau could benefit from tighter U.S. supply conditions in the US. 
  • CSN has just 4% U.S. exposure, with limited risk unless quotas tighten. Minerva’s 5% is manageable, supported by a diversified export base that enables flexible rerouting.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Kum Yang , Akzo Nobel NV, Rio Tinto Ltd, ArcelorMittal , Sailfish Royalty , Seatrium , Suzano , Var Energi, Corcel and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Will A Saudi Arabian Investment Company Save Kum Yang From Delisting?
  • Akzo Nobel: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Focus On China’s Domestic Consumption Pay Off?
  • Rio Tinto: Status Quo New CEO and Q2/25 Operations
  • ArcelorMittal: Initiation of Coverage- Why Its EAF Ramp-Up & Trade Tailwinds Are Fueling a Steel Revival!
  • Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds
  • FISH: Spring Valley Approved for Production; Increasing Target
  • kopi-C with Seatrium Limited – How Seatrium is Building a Global Engineering Brand from a Singapore Dock
  • U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage
  • Var Energi – Will Its Focus On Exploration & Resource Development Pay Off?
  • Corcel plc (AIM: CRCL): Increasing the size of the prize

Will A Saudi Arabian Investment Company Save Kum Yang From Delisting?

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss whether a Saudi Arabian investment company (SKAEEB) could save Kum Yang (001570 KS) from delisting.
  • There are several aspects of this deal with SKAEEB that are a bit fishy. 
  • 1) A 50% Market Premium is Not Justified; 2) Does SKAEEB have enough money? 3) Control does not change

Akzo Nobel: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Focus On China’s Domestic Consumption Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Akzo Nobel’s results for the first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience amidst a challenging economic backdrop.
  • The company reported flat organic sales with a slight volume decline of 2%, offset by a positive price/mix of 2%.
  • This was partly due to strong pricing strategies and cost reduction efforts that mitigated softer market conditions and inflationary pressures.

Rio Tinto: Status Quo New CEO and Q2/25 Operations

By Graeme Cunningham

  • The company reported Q2/25 production, with decent growth for iron ore, copper, aluminum and precious metals as expected, and guidance maintained for all divisions
  • A new CEO announced yesterday, Mr. Simon Trott, is head of Rio’s iron ore segment with  20 years at the company, not indicating any major shake-up of the corporate culture
  • We remain cautious given potential for a reversal of recent jumps in iron ore and copper, and a weak medium-term outlook for the former, while Rio’s valuation remains moderate

ArcelorMittal: Initiation of Coverage- Why Its EAF Ramp-Up & Trade Tailwinds Are Fueling a Steel Revival!

By Baptista Research

  • ArcelorMittal’s first quarter 2025 performance presents a mixed bag of accomplishments and ongoing challenges.
  • Safety remains a major priority, with the company focusing on implementing strategic changes to achieve zero fatalities and serious injuries, aiming for complete transformation over a three-year period.
  • Financially, the quarter exhibited robust operational performance with strong cash flows, particularly highlighted by exceptional results from the company’s Mining segment in Liberia.

Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds

By Rahul Jain

  • Copper strength continues, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and Arcadium integration, with volumes trending toward the higher end of guidance.
  • Rio Tinto is gradually shifting its portfolio toward copper and lithium to reduce reliance on iron ore and align with energy transition demand.
  • FY25 guidance remains intact across key commodities, with improved operating momentum and diversified growth positioning the company for a resilient second half.

FISH: Spring Valley Approved for Production; Increasing Target

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • Sailfish announced that the BLM has approved Solidus Resources (the operator) to construct and operate the Spring Valley Gold Project.
  • • This marks the final approval for the construction and future operation of the project.
  • • Mako reported strong production results in Q2, posting 10.9Koz of gold (vs. 11.5Koz expected) and 12.5Koz of silver (vs. 10.5Koz expected) • Given the advancement at Spring Valley, increased gold and silver prices, and continued M&A in the sector, we are increasing our target price.

kopi-C with Seatrium Limited – How Seatrium is Building a Global Engineering Brand from a Singapore Dock

By Geoff Howie

  • Seatrium, formed in 2023 from Keppel Offshore & Marine and Sembcorp Marine, focuses on global integration and energy infrastructure.
  • Seatrium achieved a full-year profit of S$157 million in FY2024, reversing a S$2.0 billion loss in FY2023.
  • As of 1Q 2025, Seatrium’s net order book stood at S$21.3 billion, with 26 projects until 2031.

U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage

By Leandro Gubler

  • Brazilian Credits in Our Coverage Show Resilience, as U.S. Tariffs Likely to Have a Modest Impact Despite Limited Macro Policy Flexibility
  • Suzano is most exposed to U.S. tariffs, but global scale, cost leadership, and FX tailwinds help cushion the impact. Gerdau could benefit from tighter U.S. supply conditions in the US. 
  • CSN has just 4% U.S. exposure, with limited risk unless quotas tighten. Minerva’s 5% is manageable, supported by a diversified export base that enables flexible rerouting.

Var Energi – Will Its Focus On Exploration & Resource Development Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Var Energi reported robust first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong operational and financial performance amidst a challenging market environment.
  • The company demonstrated resilience and flexibility, leveraging its diversified asset base and strategic partnerships, notably with its major shareholder Eni.
  • Positive highlights include Var Energi’s strong production and financial performance, with production at 272,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and cash flow from operations post-tax of $1.3 billion.

Corcel plc (AIM: CRCL): Increasing the size of the prize

By Auctus Advisors

  • • Corcel has updated the prospectivity of its three Angolan blocks, following reinterpretation of legacy seismic and enhanced Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry (eFTG) data.
  • The revised analysis indicates more pre-salt and post-salt leads and prospects than previously anticipated.
  • • At KON-16, five pre-salt leads and prospects have been identified, each estimated to hold 20–300 mmbbl of prospective resources, compared to three pre-salt prospects with 300 mmbbl recoverable estimates previously.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, Adobe Systems, Kinatico , ASML Holding NV, Tata Consultancy Svcs, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Ambiq Micro and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening
  • Adobe Has The Potential To Turn AI Into Billions—Can Firefly & GenStudio Redefine Creative Monetization?
  • Legacy Business Fuels Kinatico’s SaaS Ambition
  • ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update
  • ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?
  • TCS – Fighting on All Fronts: Gen AI, Competition & Macro Uncertainty. Underperformance Ahead
  • ASML 2Q25 Beat but the Steep Slowdown in 2H25 Is Confirmed, It Will Most Likely Extend to 1H26
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 16 July (ASML Holding | Fugro)
  • Zee Entertainment: A Forensic Perspective
  • Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of the Next Semiconductor Solutions Company

Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

By Raghav Vashisht

  • Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.
  • China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.
  • While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.

Adobe Has The Potential To Turn AI Into Billions—Can Firefly & GenStudio Redefine Creative Monetization?

By Baptista Research

  • Adobe Inc.’s second quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025 demonstrate a strong performance, marked by significant revenue growth and strategic advancements in its core business segments.
  • The company’s total revenue reached $5.87 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, with a noteworthy contribution from its Digital Media sector, which achieved $4.35 billion in revenue.
  • This sector’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew to $18.09 billion, reflecting a 12.1% increase.

Legacy Business Fuels Kinatico’s SaaS Ambition

By FNArena

  • As Kinatico transitions to a new compliance SaaS solution, the legacy business provides funding for the new service development and a pool of potential customers

ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Stock is down -10%. The 2026 revenue comment (“while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage“), confusion on EUV growth should explain it.
  • Number of EUV machines sold is flat but ASP is up 30% as machine’s throughput is up 30%. EUV revenue growth is in the mix, not units.
  • China: I don’t know what they tried to say. Healthy demand in China, not falling off a cliff. But wait, China 1H25 revenue have declined -28% YoY.

ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?

By William Keating

  • ASML today reported second quarter revenues of €7.7 billion, bang at the top of the guided range, flat QoQ and up 23% YoY
  • Guided 2025 at 15% growth (~€35 billion), a big step up in confidence from the €30-€35 billion range given last quarter
  • Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the >7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.

TCS – Fighting on All Fronts: Gen AI, Competition & Macro Uncertainty. Underperformance Ahead

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Broad-based Weakness:Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) ‘s revenue declined 3.1% YoY in CC; domestic business fell sharply due to BSNL, while international demand remained soft across key verticals.
  • GenAI Pivot Amid Margin Pressure: TCS is shifting from GenAI pilots to scaled deployments, investing heavily in AI skilling, while margins face pressure from underutilization and delayed deal ramps.
  • Outlook Cautious Despite TCV Growth: TCV rose 13.2% YoY to $9.4 Bn, but mega deals are missing; execution delays and macro concerns cloud near-term visibility.

ASML 2Q25 Beat but the Steep Slowdown in 2H25 Is Confirmed, It Will Most Likely Extend to 1H26

By Nicolas Baratte

  • ASML has released 2Q25 financials but the conf call is at 3pm. 2Q25 beat by 10% at Operating and Net Income level. 2Q25 bookings are low at €5.5bn. 
  • 3Q25 weak revenue guidance, -9% below Consensus. But ASML maintains its 2025 guidance (+15% YoY or € 32.5bn, inline). Key problem: 1H25 revenue growth 34% YoY, 2H25 growth 2% YoY. 
  • Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impacts of China lower spending, Mature node lower spending, multiple delays or cuts (Intel, Samsung) are fading away. 

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 16 July (ASML Holding | Fugro)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • ASML Holding | expects 15% FY25 net sales increase with a 52% gross margin • Fugro | awarded a 7-year framework agreement with EirGrid

Zee Entertainment: A Forensic Perspective

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Shareholders recently rejected Zee’s promoter-led capital infusion, limiting the founding family’s stake increase and influence.
  • The failed fundraise underscores persistent questions about financial transparency and management’s past conduct. This decision further impacts market perception and investor confidence.
  • This insight covers the whole story from the beginning of the allegations to the current status of the allegations and fundraising. 

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of the Next Semiconductor Solutions Company

By IPO Boutique

  • The company describes itself as a pioneer and leading provider of ultra-low power semiconductor solutions designed to address the significant power consumption challenges of general purpose and AI compute.
  • For the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, they generated net sales of $15.7 million and $15.2 million, respectively.
  • The sector in which this company operates is one that is in favor. Powering the AI trade is one that investors are highly engaged in at the moment.

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Jul 17
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble
  • Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive
  • Asian Buybacks Accelerating; Consistent Share Repurchasers Offer Safety
  • Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening
  • Adobe Has The Potential To Turn AI Into Billions—Can Firefly & GenStudio Redefine Creative Monetization?
  • Legacy Business Fuels Kinatico’s SaaS Ambition
  • The Beat Ideas: Jubilant Pharmova – Turning Capex Into Catalysts for Long-Term Value
  • ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update
  • ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?
  • Akzo Nobel: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Focus On China’s Domestic Consumption Pay Off?

Dream International (1126 HK): Riding the Popmart Bubble

By Sameer Taneja

  • We believe that toymakers are experiencing a bubble like rally led by Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) and Hasbro Inc (HAS US) which raised forecasts recently. 
  • Dream International (1126 HK) has returned >200% since liberation day tariffs were declared on April 2nd 2025 and now trades at 12.7x trailing earnings (vs 3.7x when we initiated). 
  •  “Never look a gift horse in the mouth” ! .We would take some money off the table here as toy stocks go through periods of cyclicality due restocking/destocking.

Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

By David Blennerhassett

  • Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held Hongkong Land (HKL SP), JMH’s largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. 
  • HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management – read deleveraging.
  • The recent appointment of PAG’s Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That’s not unreasonable.

Asian Buybacks Accelerating; Consistent Share Repurchasers Offer Safety

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Asian buybacks, dominated by HK, China and Korea, are skyrocketing.  In H125, buybacks more than doubled from their full year 2024 levels in HK/China and increased 40% in Korea. 
  • We screen companies repurchasing consistently, with total buyback of minimum $1bn and buyback over 2024-25 of at least 2% of present market cap, yielding companies in HK(11), Korea(6), Philippines(2), Singapore(1).
  • Top five repurchasers are Alibaba, Tencent, China Communication Construction, AIA, Netease. These, barring the third, are up more than 20% this year. Share price support from buybacks do seem solid.

Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

By Raghav Vashisht

  • Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.
  • China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.
  • While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.

Adobe Has The Potential To Turn AI Into Billions—Can Firefly & GenStudio Redefine Creative Monetization?

By Baptista Research

  • Adobe Inc.’s second quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025 demonstrate a strong performance, marked by significant revenue growth and strategic advancements in its core business segments.
  • The company’s total revenue reached $5.87 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, with a noteworthy contribution from its Digital Media sector, which achieved $4.35 billion in revenue.
  • This sector’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew to $18.09 billion, reflecting a 12.1% increase.

Legacy Business Fuels Kinatico’s SaaS Ambition

By FNArena

  • As Kinatico transitions to a new compliance SaaS solution, the legacy business provides funding for the new service development and a pool of potential customers

The Beat Ideas: Jubilant Pharmova – Turning Capex Into Catalysts for Long-Term Value

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Jubilant Pharmova is investing over USD 285 million to expand its PET radiopharmacy sites, CDMO Sterile Injectables, and CRDMO capacity (FTEs from 1,000 to 4,000 by FY27). 
  • These segments, contributing over 80% of FY25 EBITDA, are positioned for faster growth and margin expansion, with Line 3 in Spokane expected to reach peak utilization in 3 years.
  • A pivot towards higher-margin businesses with targeted RoCE above 20% enhances confidence in achieving Vision 2030 goals of doubling revenue and reaching 23–25% EBITDA margins.

ASML 2Q25 Conf Call: Trying to Clear Doubts on EUV Growth and China Demand – Short Update

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Stock is down -10%. The 2026 revenue comment (“while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage“), confusion on EUV growth should explain it.
  • Number of EUV machines sold is flat but ASP is up 30% as machine’s throughput is up 30%. EUV revenue growth is in the mix, not units.
  • China: I don’t know what they tried to say. Healthy demand in China, not falling off a cliff. But wait, China 1H25 revenue have declined -28% YoY.

ASML Q225 Earnings. Solid Results, Forecasting 15% Growth In 2025, Down 7% In Pre Market. But Why?

By William Keating

  • ASML today reported second quarter revenues of €7.7 billion, bang at the top of the guided range, flat QoQ and up 23% YoY
  • Guided 2025 at 15% growth (~€35 billion), a big step up in confidence from the €30-€35 billion range given last quarter
  • Comments regarding uncertainty about 2026 outlook and tariff impacts likely led to the >7% sell off currently happening in pre-market trading.

Akzo Nobel: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Focus On China’s Domestic Consumption Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Akzo Nobel’s results for the first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience amidst a challenging economic backdrop.
  • The company reported flat organic sales with a slight volume decline of 2%, offset by a positive price/mix of 2%.
  • This was partly due to strong pricing strategies and cost reduction efforts that mitigated softer market conditions and inflationary pressures.

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