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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Nickel Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Nickel Asia: Valuation Low On Cyclical Slump But Limited Catalysts

Nickel Asia: Valuation Low On Cyclical Slump But Limited Catalysts

By Graeme Cunningham

  • Nickel Asia is market leader for Philippines nickel ore and will remain a top player with decades of reserves leaving it well-positioned for the country’s move up the value chain  
  • However, short-term its share price has slumped on continued weakness in nickel, from a global oversupply and weakening demand, but also its removal from the PSEi 
  • While the 2025E P/B at 0.85x on a 6.4% ROE is likely near cyclical lows and the valuation is inexpensive for such a major player, there are few immediate catalysts 

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Financials: Zenhoren , S&P/ASX 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Zenhoren (5845 JP): MUFG (8306 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer
  • Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) – RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

Zenhoren (5845 JP): MUFG (8306 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Zenhoren (5845 JP) announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP). MUFG aims to make Zenhoren a consolidated subsidiary.  
  • The offer is for a minimum of 11.7m shares (44.36% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 13.0m shares (49.55% ownership ratio) at JPY1,000, a 31.9% premium to the last close.
  • Due to the irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a minority acceptance rate of 16.6%. This threshold is achievable, as the offer is reasonable.

Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) – RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its Monetary Policy on 18 February. The current RBA rate stands at 4.35% with no change since 2024. 
  • The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. Options expiring on 20 February provide an instrument to trade this event. 
  • Option pricing is in-line with historical S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) moves on days after expected rate changes. Contrarians expecting no change might find value in put options.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Japan Eyewear Holdings , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharma, Otsuka Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.16)-Update on CR Sanjiu’s Acquisition of Tasly, the Impact of US Tariff
  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Soft Guidance for 2025; Reduction of Investment Units

Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday after the close, Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) made a short announcement that it would cancel its equity offering and TSE Prime application announced 10 Feb, discussed here.
  • I had suggested that the offering price, or a large dip would be a buy. I rescind that recommendation immediately.
  • The reason for the cancellation? “Matters that need to be confirmed in relation to our internal control system have been discovered and that will take time.”

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.16)-Update on CR Sanjiu’s Acquisition of Tasly, the Impact of US Tariff

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In our view, China’s biotech companies have sold their core pipelines/products too early, resulting in the loss of opportunities to gain much greater benefits in the future.
  • We summarized the impact of tariff policy implemented by the US on China’s healthcare industry. Short-term headwinds are inevitable, but in long term, it helps force the industry to upgrade.
  • After Spring Festival, the acquisition progress of Tasly by CR Sanjiu has significantly accelerated – SASAC/SAMR approvals have been received. It’s possible for the deal to be completed in 25Q1.

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Soft Guidance for 2025; Reduction of Investment Units

By Tina Banerjee

  • For 2025, Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) is looking for 2% YoY revenue growth to ¥2,380B. However, net profit is expected to decline 20% YoY to ¥275B.
  • Even upon a massive impact from LoE of Jinarc/Jynarque, total revenue will grow in 2025. Excluding one-time of impact of the tax adjustments, 2025 net profit guidance implies 6% growth.
  • Otsuka intends to reduce buyback to create a more investable environment, encourage individual investors to participate in the market, and revitalize the stock market.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Alibaba Group Holding , Great Wall Motor, Seven & I Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Fall but Foreigners Buying Non-H/A Pair HK Stocks
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Paragon REIT, Kaonavi, Arcadium Lithium, Sun Art Retail, HKBN, and Seven & I
  • Companies Should Consider All Options, Not Just Maintaining Their Listing

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

By Travis Lundy

  • There was a HUGE jump in value traded this week – HK$655bn vs ~$300bn for 5-days of trading the last several weeks.
  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was the big buy with net buying 7 of 8 days post-CNY and a huge end of week. Tencent was sold.
  • There appears to be a flight to Chinese equities by foreigners and SB are taking part with risk-on style trading. Watch Hang Seng rebal news this week!

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Fall but Foreigners Buying Non-H/A Pair HK Stocks

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are lower again (new 5yr low) in the first full week after the CNY holiday. HK stocks up BIG vs A-shares. H/A discounts slightly narrower on average.
  • That tells you that the big winners in HK the past two weeks are those stocks without A-shares. This past week Healthcare sector pairs saw the best relative H-share performance.
  • Foreigners returning to HK markets but less to the H in H/A pairs. They are buying HK/China “foreign-investor beta” not China breadth. Feels spivvy, and short-term.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Paragon REIT, Kaonavi, Arcadium Lithium, Sun Art Retail, HKBN, and Seven & I

By David Blennerhassett

Companies Should Consider All Options, Not Just Maintaining Their Listing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Besides not showing concrete measures to increase corporate value, the feasibility of the plan and the valuation at that time are often not verified, so disclosures that don’t add up.
  • Listed subsidiaries and equity method affiliates account for 31.8% of all listed companies. The company is still in the process of restructuring its business portfolio.
  • The growth of each company’s corporate value and stock market capitalization will be determined by how quickly issues that have not been initiated so far are resolved.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 14th): HSBC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 14th): HSBC, AIA, Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 7th): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Apa, Computershare, Origin Energy
  • China Mobile (941 HK) Skyrockets- Is It Too Late to Jump In?

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 14th): HSBC, AIA, Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Feb 14th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSBC (5 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric (3898 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), HSBC (5 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 7th): Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Apa, Computershare, Origin Energy

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD23.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Apa, Computershare, Origin Energy, Transurban.

China Mobile (941 HK) Skyrockets- Is It Too Late to Jump In?

By Nico Rosti

  • In our previous, recent insight about China Mobile (941 HK) we correctly predicted a pullback was about to happen (it happened right after we published the insight).
  • We said “The stock should end its pull back between 72.85 and 72.25, it can be bought again from these levels. ” Actually the pullback ended much earlier (at 74.90).
  • Then the stock took off furiously, but (tactical consideration, if you were planning to go LONG) it may be too late to enter. Our models say it is WEEKLYoverbought.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
  • $116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
  • DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The Great Gold Rush of 2025: Why Physical Demand Is Rising? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The Great Gold Rush of 2025: Why Physical Demand Is Rising?
  • Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle’s Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations
  • Singapore Market Roundup (14-Feb-2025): Brokers’ top picks: CLAR, CICT, CNMC, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life, FLCT, ST Engineering.
  • #103 India Insight: India Adapts to US Sanctions, Unilever Invests in Beauty, BAT to Divest
  • Despite DeepSeek’s Innovation, Hyperscalers Doubling Down on Capex
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 14/07/2025

The Great Gold Rush of 2025: Why Physical Demand Is Rising?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Physical gold buying has surged, with COMEX vaults seeing a 115% increase in two months, pushing holdings above 2020 pandemic levels, highlighting an unprecedented demand for physical gold.
  • This surge matters because it indicates major shift in global gold market, with London vault inventories decreasing and US becoming net gold importer, signaling a significant change in gold’s distribution.
  • The impact is seen in rising gold prices, up 40% in 12 months, outperforming the S&P 500, as gold solidifies its position as global hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle’s Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japan’s tech market sees major movement with Carlyle’s 120% premium bid for Kaonavi, highlighting the stark valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies.
  • Many Japanese software firms trade at significantly lower multiples (4x) versus US peers (8x), attracting private equity attention.
  • Japanese stocks ended the week up around 1%. Global macro concerns and inflation lifting bond yields and raising concern over a stronger yen. 

Singapore Market Roundup (14-Feb-2025): Brokers’ top picks: CLAR, CICT, CNMC, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life, FLCT, ST Engineering.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • Brokers’ top stock picks include CLAR, CICT, CNMC Goldmine, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life REIT, FLCT, and ST Engineering.
  • Analysts recommend buying Digital Core REIT due to increased rents and leasing strength, while optimistic about Oiltek’s new orders for FY2025.
  • CGSI optimistic about Seatrium with new MOU for second bp FPU; OCBC boosts fair value. Citi downgrades SGX to ‘sell’. PhillipCapital maintains ‘accumulate’ rating on BRC Asia, raises TP to $3.15. Maybank Securities maintains ‘buy’ rating on SingPost. DBS upgrades Elite UK REIT to ‘buy’.

#103 India Insight: India Adapts to US Sanctions, Unilever Invests in Beauty, BAT to Divest

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India is adapting to tougher US sanctions on Russian oil by rebuilding supply chains with non-sanctioned merchants, tankers, and insurance providers. 
  • Unilever (UL US)  plans to invest in India’s beauty and wellness sector, expecting improved demand conditions mid-term after fiscal stimulus.
  • British American Tobacco (BATS LN) will divest its 15% stake in ITC Hotels at the “best moment,” aiming to maximize shareholder value, following ITC Hotels demerger from ITC Ltd (ITC IN)  earlier.

Despite DeepSeek’s Innovation, Hyperscalers Doubling Down on Capex

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Despite DeepSeek (DPSK12 CH)’s breakthrough with minimal chips, hyperscalers remain undeterred, planning $315 billion in FY25 capex to expand AI and cloud infrastructure.
  • This sustained high capex underlines tech giants’ confidence in long-term AI growth, ensuring a competitive edge and reinforcing their market leadership.
  • Investors should see this aggressive capex commitment as a signal of robust future revenue potential, even amid disruptive cost-saving innovations.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 14/07/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: New acreage in Austria increases prospect inventory with a focus on low risk, shallow gas – ADX’s acreage in Austria has been modified to include additional near-term, low-risk gas prospects, as well as high-impact, higher-risk opportunities.
  • One focus of the 2025 program is to drill shallow, low-risk, high initial production gas prospects that can be rapidly put into production.
  • ADX has more than tripled the number of these prospects within its revised acreage positions at ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II, holding 100% WI in the new prospects.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief ECM: Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Obesity Biotech Busts; IPO Trades Deeply in the Red and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Obesity Biotech Busts; IPO Trades Deeply in the Red
  • Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Space and Defense IPO Blasts Off, High Hit Rate in Roadshow
  • Ajax Engineering IPO Trading – Decent Insti Coverage but Subdued Retail Demand
  • SailPoint IPO (SAIL.US): Pricing and First Trading-Day, No IPO Pop In $1B+ Nasdaq Debut

Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Obesity Biotech Busts; IPO Trades Deeply in the Red

By IPO Boutique

  • Aardvark Therapeutics priced a full size deal of 5.88mm shares at the low end of the range, $16.00, and opened at $15.18 for a loss of 5.1% at first trade.
  • The volume on day one was just 1.7 million shares or less than 30% of the float. 
  • As the company progresses through its trials and more readouts and data becomes available, this biotech may find a better footing.

Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Space and Defense IPO Blasts Off, High Hit Rate in Roadshow

By IPO Boutique

  • The Trive Capital (private equity) backed company priced 23.0mm shares (upsized from 21.05mm) at $22.00 ($2 Above Range) and opened at $30.00 for a 36.3% gain at first trade. 
  • The deal finished roughly 17-times oversubscribed with the top ten percent of the deal receiving 50% of the offerings and top 25% of the transaction receiving 75% of the allocations.
  • Given the success of the IPO on day one, we will be upwardly-revising our 30-day forecast on this IPO.

Ajax Engineering IPO Trading – Decent Insti Coverage but Subdued Retail Demand

By Akshat Shah

  • Ajax Engineering Limited (0896529D IN) raised around US$145m in its India IPO.
  • Ajax Engineering Limited (AEL) is one of the leading concrete equipment manufacturers with a comprehensive range of concrete equipment, services and solutions across the concrete application value chain.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

SailPoint IPO (SAIL.US): Pricing and First Trading-Day, No IPO Pop In $1B+ Nasdaq Debut

By Andrei Zakharov

  • SailPoint, a Thoma Bravo-backed provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, priced its IPO at $23.00/share and raised $1B+.
  • The offering was 20+ times oversubscribed, according to Bloomberg. However, shares fell as much as ~4% on the first day of trading.
  • I think the stock was fairly valued vs. peers given 20%+ growth rates at scale. Surprisingly, the company boosted its initial price range and priced IPO at top of range.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: 3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • 3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977)
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: TPX Add in April; Global Idx: One in August; One in March or Sep
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: High-Impact Intra-Review Additions Possible
  • Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) / Healius (HLS AU): Round 2?
  • NZME Limited (NZM NZ/AU): In Need Of A Good Story
  • Biogen’s Acquisition Bid for Sage Therapeutics: Strategic Review, Shareholder Dynamics, and Zurzuvae’s Blockbuster Potential

3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977)

By Travis Lundy

  • For the second time in 3 weeks, 3D Investment Partners has launched, unannounced, a Partial Tender Offer for pure investment purposes, for a 10-15% stake in a REIT.
  • Last time it was NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP). This time it is Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). 
  • The trade last time was to sell NTT UD on the pop and replace with peers. That has worked. The trade is probably the same here. 

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: TPX Add in April; Global Idx: One in August; One in March or Sep

By Brian Freitas

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 19 March.
  • At the indicative IPO price of JPY 862/share, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will be valued at JPY 800bn (US$5.25bn).
  • The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 28 April while timing of inclusion in global indices will depend on domestic/overseas allocations and price moves.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar25: High-Impact Intra-Review Additions Possible

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • We see up to three M&A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.
  • Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and at least two changes for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance.

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL AU) / Healius (HLS AU): Round 2?

By David Blennerhassett

NZME Limited (NZM NZ/AU): In Need Of A Good Story

By David Blennerhassett

  • After NZME Limited (NZM NZ/AU), publisher of the NZ Herald, recently announced sweeping job cuts, the country’s largest private sector union called for the government to step in.
  • The union said the cutbacks not only affected staff, but also readers seeking information on important issues. NZME’s revamped strategy focuses on stories that engage audience. Or clickbait by detractors. 
  • Reports are now emerging of a possible takeover from local entrepreneurs. Those reports appear tenuous, at best.

Biogen’s Acquisition Bid for Sage Therapeutics: Strategic Review, Shareholder Dynamics, and Zurzuvae’s Blockbuster Potential

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Biogen owns ~10% of Sage Therapeutics and offered $7.22/share to acquire the rest, which Sage rejected.
  • Sage has ~$500m in net cash and a 50/50 partnership with Biogen on Zurzuvae, valued at $10/share.
  • Biogen’s interest in Sage is driven by Zurzuvae’s potential as a blockbuster drug and associated synergies.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Credit: Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen

Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen

By Leandro Gubler

  • We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.
  • Suzano posted strong 4Q24 results. Supported by the Pulp segment outperforming despite pricing headwinds. EBITDA reached R$6.5 billion, down a modest 0.6% QoQ but 5.3% above expectations
  • From a credit perspective. Suzano’s results showed improved LTM EBITDA and positive net free cash flow, but net leverage rose slightly to 3.3x due to FX-driven debt increases.

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