Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
Palliser’s reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.

Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Activists Getting More Activish, Watch for Position Changes?

The MBO for Proto Corp (4298 JP) where the founder/chair is buying out from minorities is being done at the wrong price. His reasons are good, but not for minorities.
One large foreign shareholder – the second largest shareholder of the firm – has offered substantial pushback in the form of a letter asking for discussions. That went nowhere.
So now they have come out harder. The solution here is a really big bump or a broken deal if investors keep the share price above the TOB price.

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
If the Unification completes, S&P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.

Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now (Definitely) Permitted

In a long-form merger for Cayman incorporated companies, dissenters can petition the Grand Court for determination of fair value. For short form merges, that avenue of dissent was not available.
But on the 28 January 2021, the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands concluded that shareholders of companies that undertake a ‘short-form’ merger were entitled to dissent.
Changyou.com (CYOU US) appealed this decision in the Court of Appeal, and was dismissed. Then appealed to the Privy Council. In a judgement handed down yesterday, this was also dismissed.

Is Homeplus Debacle a Key Negative Tipping Point for MBK?

In this insight, we discuss how the Homeplus debacle is causing a major negative sentiment on MBK Partners from both the Korean government and the media.
This negative sentiment has grown so much that it could have a legitimate negative impact in the upcoming proxy vote for the control of Korea Zinc.
The Korean government has targeted MBK for tax probe. Plus, a coalition of securities firms is expected to file a lawsuit against Homeplus and MBK.

ESR Group (1821 HK): Steady Progress

By Arun George

ESR Group (1821 HK)’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.
On 7 March, the consortium disclosed two additional irrevocable (3.47% of outstanding shares) and satisfied two regulatory preconditions (UK FCA and Singapore MAS).
Since announcing the offer, peers have materially derated, lowering the vote risk. At the last close and for an end August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.5%/10.1%

Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues

Back on the 11th November 2024, Silk Logistics (SLH AU) entered into an Offer by way of a Scheme with Dubai-based DP World, Australia’s biggest ports operator.
DP World offered A$2.14/share (less any dividends), a 45.6% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Silk’s board, and co-founders (holding ~46% of the shares out).
This looked all stitched up. Potentially a delay for ACCC/FIRB, but it felt like one that should get approved. But the ACCC has now detailed a comprehensive list of concerns.

NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit

Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP) is a small logistics provider. They specialise in LCL (“Less-Than-Container-Load” shipments around Asia.
On 7 March 2025, the company agreed to a buyout via Tender Offer by IAPF2 – a buyout vehicle of IA Partners – a 3yr old PE firm in Japan.
This is 5.9x EBITDA. There’s minimal transparency. No guidance. The PE firm is putting down an equity check of 2x EBITDA and 4x earnings. But it’ll probably get done.

Kakao Corp: Insiders Are Buying and Cancellation of Treasury Shares

By Special Situation Investments

Kakao Corp (035720 KS) has two near-term positive catalysts. First is treasury shares cancellation. Second is insiders buying of its shares.
These moves suggest the management’s confidence in the company’s outlook ahead of the AGM on 26 March.
In our view, one of the major reasons why the insiders are buying could be due to Kakao’s collaboration with OpenAI.

WEX Launches $750M Tender Offer with Odd-Lot Provision Amidst Share Price Decline and Strategic Stake Increase

WEX launched a $750m tender offer to repurchase ~12% of shares at $148-$170/share, prioritizing odd lots.
Impactive Capital increased its stake in WEX from 5.6% to 6.7%, purchasing at $154.75/share average.
WEX is highly leveraged with net debt at 5x EBITDA, despite slowing growth and weak guidance.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Macro: US Lands Some Disinflation In Feb-25 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

US Lands Some Disinflation In Feb-25
CX Daily: China’s EV Sector Enters New Frontier With Solid-State Batteries
Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change
US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb’25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In
Canada: 25bp Rate Cut To 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Mar-25

US Lands Some Disinflation In Feb-25

By Phil Rush

The upwards trend in monthly US inflation of the past several months broke in February with a surprisingly steep slowing to 0.2% m-o-m, although airfares drove the downside.
Drift in consensus expectations is not yet obviously broken, with this outcome 0.2pp above forecasts from a month ago. A rebound after Easter remains likely.
Disinflation is unlikely to dissuade the Fed from holding rates in March. We doubt soft surveys will translate to recessionary conditions, so we still see no more Fed cuts.

CX Daily: China’s EV Sector Enters New Frontier With Solid-State Batteries

By Caixin Global

Batteries / In Depth: China’s EV sector enters new frontier with solid-state batteries
Sea /Environmentalists sound alarm over sea reclamation project
Property /Analysis: Will China’s major cities propel a housing market recovery?

Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change

By Farah Miller

The tire majors losing volume
Smaller tire makers gaining prominence
Most tire majors saw flat or drop in profits

US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb’25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

By Prasenjit K. Basu

US headline inflation was lower than consensus but in line with our view that Trump’s policies will be disinflationary. Core CPI inflation (3.1%YoY in Feb’25) was at a 46-month low.
Trump has kept crude oil prices well contained (near US$70/bbl, down 17%YoY), an important factor helping to lower headline and core inflation. DOGE impact on spending/job cuts will flow in.
Inflationary impact of import-tariff hikes will be modest (imports are only 20% of GDP), with greater disinflation from oil and DOGE. We expect FedFunds to fall to 3.5% by end-2025.

Canada: 25bp Rate Cut To 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Mar-25

By Heteronomics AI

The Bank of Canada cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with expectations, as heightened US trade tensions introduced downside risks to economic activity despite stronger-than-anticipated GDP growth.
Inflation remains near the 2% target but is expected to rise to 2.5% in March due to the expiry of temporary tax measures, while concerns over tariffs have lifted short-term inflation expectations.
The Bank will closely assess the balance between weaker demand and higher cost pressures, maintaining a data-dependent approach to future rate decisions, with inflation expectations and trade policy developments being key determinants.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Industrials: Naigai Trans Line, Silk Logistics, Lonking Holdings, Eneco Energy Limited, Alfen, Frontier Management Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit
Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues
Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom
kopi-C with Eneco Energy’s Executive Director: ‘”We’re expanding beyond our expertise in airport cargo logistics to build a diversified portfolio of companies.”
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam 12 March (Alfen | Basic-Fit)
Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Reported Losses in FY2024/12…

NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit

Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP) is a small logistics provider. They specialise in LCL (“Less-Than-Container-Load” shipments around Asia.
On 7 March 2025, the company agreed to a buyout via Tender Offer by IAPF2 – a buyout vehicle of IA Partners – a 3yr old PE firm in Japan.
This is 5.9x EBITDA. There’s minimal transparency. No guidance. The PE firm is putting down an equity check of 2x EBITDA and 4x earnings. But it’ll probably get done.

Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues

Back on the 11th November 2024, Silk Logistics (SLH AU) entered into an Offer by way of a Scheme with Dubai-based DP World, Australia’s biggest ports operator.
DP World offered A$2.14/share (less any dividends), a 45.6% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Silk’s board, and co-founders (holding ~46% of the shares out).
This looked all stitched up. Potentially a delay for ACCC/FIRB, but it felt like one that should get approved. But the ACCC has now detailed a comprehensive list of concerns.

Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Industry sales of wheel loaders and excavators surged 16.5% and 27.2% in 2M25. For Feb alone, the growth rates are even more impressive at 34.4% and 52.8%, respectively.
Post-CNY, the utilisation hours and rates of construction machinery rose 70.3% YoY and 12.3pp. Market share gain in developing countries will drive exports.
Government supportive policies announced in NPC will provide support to demand. Current consensus forecasts for profit decline in FY25 are disconnected from industry data.

kopi-C with Eneco Energy’s Executive Director: ‘”We’re expanding beyond our expertise in airport cargo logistics to build a diversified portfolio of companies.”

By Geoff Howie

Eneco Energy plans to diversify beyond airport cargo logistics, aiming for profitable, cash flow-generative businesses through acquisitions.
RichLand Logistics seeks to acquire a warehouse, enhance fleet utilization, and expand its logistics value chain.
Eneco generated S$3.0 million net cash from operations with total equity of S$19.40 million as of 31 Dec 2024.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam 12 March (Alfen | Basic-Fit)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • Alfen | CCO Michelle Lesh to step down • Basic-Fit | adjusting its strategy to a better balance between growth and cash flow generation

Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Reported Losses in FY2024/12…

By Sessa Investment Research

Frontier Management announced its full-year FY2024/12 results after market close on February 13, 2025.
Net sales came in at JPY 9,265 mn, surpassing the forecast target of JPY 9,000 mn, mainly thanks to an increase in revenue from deals in the M&A Advisory Business.
In addition to this increase in sales, cost-cutting measures in consulting-based businesses proved successful, which helped reduce operating losses from the forecasted JPY 950 mn to JPY 632 mn.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Rio Tinto Ltd, Korea Zinc, BP , Moresco Corp, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Zephyr Energy, Valeura Energy Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification
Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows
Is Homeplus Debacle a Key Negative Tipping Point for MBK?
BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints
Initiation – Moresco (5018 JP)
Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change
Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Key Paradox well test results expected in April
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Investor visit: adding depth and breadth

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
Palliser’s reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
If the Unification completes, S&P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.

Is Homeplus Debacle a Key Negative Tipping Point for MBK?

In this insight, we discuss how the Homeplus debacle is causing a major negative sentiment on MBK Partners from both the Korean government and the media.
This negative sentiment has grown so much that it could have a legitimate negative impact in the upcoming proxy vote for the control of Korea Zinc.
The Korean government has targeted MBK for tax probe. Plus, a coalition of securities firms is expected to file a lawsuit against Homeplus and MBK.

BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

By Suhas Reddy

BP will increase oil and gas spending to USD 10 billion annually through 2027, comprising 66%-70% of total capex, while slashing renewable energy investments by over USD 5 billion.
BP reduced its quarterly buybacks to USD 0.75–1 billion from USD 1.75 billion and lowered annual capex to USD 13–15 billion through 2027.
Elliott Investment Management is reportedly dissatisfied with BP’s strategy reset, criticizing it for lacking urgency and ambition, potentially prompting further strategic adjustments from the company.

Initiation – Moresco (5018 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

MORESCO Corporation (hereinafter referred to as “MORESCO” or “the Company”) is a R&D-oriented company that has developed products boasting market-leading shares in Japan, such as fire-resistant hydraulic fluid for the steel and automotive industries and liquid paraffin used as ingredients in cosmetics, with the aim of achieving domestic production of special lubricants.
In recent years, the Company has successfully brought to market water soluble die casting lubricants and environmentally friendly hot melt adhesives.
In addition, it has also gained a leading global share in synthetic lubricants such as high temperature greases and hard disk surface lubricants.

Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change

By Farah Miller

The tire majors losing volume
Smaller tire makers gaining prominence
Most tire majors saw flat or drop in profits

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Key Paradox well test results expected in April

By Auctus Advisors

• FY24 sales volumes averaged 1,149 boe/d including 139 bbl/d of NGL.
The NGL sales were higher than we were anticipating (~100 bbl/d) but FY24 production of 1,052 boe/d was impacted by downtime experienced in the Williston Basin in 4Q24 due to extreme weather in the area.
4Q24 net production was 829 boe/d (plus NGL that we estimate at 90-100 bbl/d).

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Investor visit: adding depth and breadth

By Auctus Advisors

• Valeura hosted an investor trip to its operations in Thailand earlier this month.
The visit underscored three key aspects: (1) the extensive experience of the management team, (2) the strong relationships with Thai authorities, and (3) the substantial breadth of its assets, offering more potential than previously anticipated.
• Greg Kulawski, Valeura’s COO, brings extensive experience to the company’s shallow water operations in Thailand.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Industrials: Naigai Trans Line, Silk Logistics, Lonking Holdings, Eneco Energy Limited, Alfen, Frontier Management Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit
Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues
Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom
kopi-C with Eneco Energy’s Executive Director: ‘”We’re expanding beyond our expertise in airport cargo logistics to build a diversified portfolio of companies.”
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam 12 March (Alfen | Basic-Fit)
Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Reported Losses in FY2024/12…

NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit

Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP) is a small logistics provider. They specialise in LCL (“Less-Than-Container-Load” shipments around Asia.
On 7 March 2025, the company agreed to a buyout via Tender Offer by IAPF2 – a buyout vehicle of IA Partners – a 3yr old PE firm in Japan.
This is 5.9x EBITDA. There’s minimal transparency. No guidance. The PE firm is putting down an equity check of 2x EBITDA and 4x earnings. But it’ll probably get done.

Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues

Back on the 11th November 2024, Silk Logistics (SLH AU) entered into an Offer by way of a Scheme with Dubai-based DP World, Australia’s biggest ports operator.
DP World offered A$2.14/share (less any dividends), a 45.6% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Silk’s board, and co-founders (holding ~46% of the shares out).
This looked all stitched up. Potentially a delay for ACCC/FIRB, but it felt like one that should get approved. But the ACCC has now detailed a comprehensive list of concerns.

Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Industry sales of wheel loaders and excavators surged 16.5% and 27.2% in 2M25. For Feb alone, the growth rates are even more impressive at 34.4% and 52.8%, respectively.
Post-CNY, the utilisation hours and rates of construction machinery rose 70.3% YoY and 12.3pp. Market share gain in developing countries will drive exports.
Government supportive policies announced in NPC will provide support to demand. Current consensus forecasts for profit decline in FY25 are disconnected from industry data.

kopi-C with Eneco Energy’s Executive Director: ‘”We’re expanding beyond our expertise in airport cargo logistics to build a diversified portfolio of companies.”

By Geoff Howie

Eneco Energy plans to diversify beyond airport cargo logistics, aiming for profitable, cash flow-generative businesses through acquisitions.
RichLand Logistics seeks to acquire a warehouse, enhance fleet utilization, and expand its logistics value chain.
Eneco generated S$3.0 million net cash from operations with total equity of S$19.40 million as of 31 Dec 2024.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam 12 March (Alfen | Basic-Fit)

By The IDEA!

In this edition: • Alfen | CCO Michelle Lesh to step down • Basic-Fit | adjusting its strategy to a better balance between growth and cash flow generation

Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Reported Losses in FY2024/12…

By Sessa Investment Research

Frontier Management announced its full-year FY2024/12 results after market close on February 13, 2025.
Net sales came in at JPY 9,265 mn, surpassing the forecast target of JPY 9,000 mn, mainly thanks to an increase in revenue from deals in the M&A Advisory Business.
In addition to this increase in sales, cost-cutting measures in consulting-based businesses proved successful, which helped reduce operating losses from the forecasted JPY 950 mn to JPY 632 mn.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Changyou.com, Bestechnic Shanghai , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Kakao Corp, Wex Inc, SAP , Intel Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now (Definitely) Permitted
CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 10% Turnover; US$3.6bn Round-Trip Trade
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Trading Range Breakdown? ChipMOS Discount Rare Long Opportunity
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Mar-2025): Semiconductor industry forecast for 2025.
Kakao Corp: Insiders Are Buying and Cancellation of Treasury Shares
Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long
WEX Launches $750M Tender Offer with Odd-Lot Provision Amidst Share Price Decline and Strategic Stake Increase
SAP SE (SAP GR): A Lot of Efficiency Ahead
Intel: A Better CEO that Understand that Intel Should Fix Its Own Problems, Not Compete with TSMC

Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now (Definitely) Permitted

In a long-form merger for Cayman incorporated companies, dissenters can petition the Grand Court for determination of fair value. For short form merges, that avenue of dissent was not available.
But on the 28 January 2021, the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands concluded that shareholders of companies that undertake a ‘short-form’ merger were entitled to dissent.
Changyou.com (CYOU US) appealed this decision in the Court of Appeal, and was dismissed. Then appealed to the Privy Council. In a judgement handed down yesterday, this was also dismissed.

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 10% Turnover; US$3.6bn Round-Trip Trade

With 85% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the close on 13 June.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 10% at the rebalance resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY26.4bn (US$3.6bn). The Information Technology gains at the expense of Healthcare and Consumer Staples.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the CSI Smallcap500 Index over the last 6 months. The best part is that the volatility of the trade is very low.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Trading Range Breakdown? ChipMOS Discount Rare Long Opportunity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +14.1% Premium; Given Latest Market Weakness, Safest to Wait for a Slightly Lower Premium Before Going Long
ASE: -1.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
ChipMOS: -6.8% Discount: Long the Spread, Historical Extreme Discount Level

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Mar-2025): Semiconductor industry forecast for 2025.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Semiconductor industry set to see significant growth by 2025 due to technology advancements and global demand for electronic devices.
TSMC proposes joint venture with Intel’s foundry division, showcasing industry collaboration for mutual benefit and innovation.
Huawei takes action against recruitment fraud, penalizing 72 employees, while Altera CEO highlights FPGA advantages over ASIC in AI technology.

Kakao Corp: Insiders Are Buying and Cancellation of Treasury Shares

By Special Situation Investments

Kakao Corp (035720 KS) has two near-term positive catalysts. First is treasury shares cancellation. Second is insiders buying of its shares.
These moves suggest the management’s confidence in the company’s outlook ahead of the AGM on 26 March.
In our view, one of the major reasons why the insiders are buying could be due to Kakao’s collaboration with OpenAI.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?
TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex
MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy

WEX Launches $750M Tender Offer with Odd-Lot Provision Amidst Share Price Decline and Strategic Stake Increase

WEX launched a $750m tender offer to repurchase ~12% of shares at $148-$170/share, prioritizing odd lots.
Impactive Capital increased its stake in WEX from 5.6% to 6.7%, purchasing at $154.75/share average.
WEX is highly leveraged with net debt at 5x EBITDA, despite slowing growth and weak guidance.

SAP SE (SAP GR): A Lot of Efficiency Ahead

By Gregory Ramirez

FY 2025 guidance exceeds previous expectations, with cloud revenues expected to grow 26-28%, and profit to rise 26-30%. Cloud revenues are expected to reach 70% by 2027.
SAP optimises its cloud offerings and Opex, with a focus on driving long-term growth through its ‘land and expand’ strategy and AI. Recent senior appointments aim to support operational efficiency.
SAP expands AI capabilities, with 50% of deals involving AI use cases. It is aiming to enhance AI agents while positioning itself to benefit from lower AI costs.

Intel: A Better CEO that Understand that Intel Should Fix Its Own Problems, Not Compete with TSMC

By Nicolas Baratte

The return of Mr. Tan as CEO suggests that spinning off or selling Intel Foundry will accelerate, Intel’s focus should improve.
It probably also means scaling down considerably Intel manufacturing plans and outsourcing more to TSMC. If you can’t beat them, join them.
Now is not a good time to buy Semiconductor stocks. It will take a couple of years to fix Intel’s problems. TSMC will benefit.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Consumer: Proto Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, BYD, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Softcare, Vera Bradley and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Activists Getting More Activish, Watch for Position Changes?
Stock Splits Meet Many Companies’ Needs to Increase the Shareholdings of Individual Investors
BYD (1211 HK) 2024 Result Preview: Expanding in Domestic Market and 19% Upside Left
Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change
Softcare Pre-IPO – Strong Market Penetration but Gross Margins May Be Capped
VRA: 4Q Review: Fully Focused on the Core, Reiterate Buy, Lowering PT to $4

Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Activists Getting More Activish, Watch for Position Changes?

By Small Cap Consumer Research

The MBO for Proto Corp (4298 JP) where the founder/chair is buying out from minorities is being done at the wrong price. His reasons are good, but not for minorities.
One large foreign shareholder – the second largest shareholder of the firm – has offered substantial pushback in the form of a letter asking for discussions. That went nowhere.
So now they have come out harder. The solution here is a really big bump or a broken deal if investors keep the share price above the TOB price.

Stock Splits Meet Many Companies’ Needs to Increase the Shareholdings of Individual Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

The increase in stock splits can be attributed to TSE requesting more effective measures from companies after market restructuring and to more companies whose stock prices have risen.
Companies are obsessed with getting individual investors on their side. It seems that the interests of companies and TSE are aligned in conducting stock splits to increase individual investors’ shareholdings.
Now that many companies want to increase the number of individual investors, it may be a good time to resolve the cost issue and consider changing the share unit system.

BYD (1211 HK) 2024 Result Preview: Expanding in Domestic Market and 19% Upside Left

By Ming Lu

BYD will release its 2025 annual results on March 24.
The stock price has risen by 38% since our last buy rating on January 6.
However, we believe there is still an upside of 19% for the next twelve months.

Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change

By Farah Miller

The tire majors losing volume
Smaller tire makers gaining prominence
Most tire majors saw flat or drop in profits

Softcare Pre-IPO – Strong Market Penetration but Gross Margins May Be Capped

By Nicholas Tan

Softcare (SOFT HK) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Softcare (SC) is an international hygiene product corporation engaged in the development, manufacturing and sales of baby and feminine hygiene products.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

VRA: 4Q Review: Fully Focused on the Core, Reiterate Buy, Lowering PT to $4

We are lowering our projections and price target for Vera Bradley after the company reported lower than consensus 4QFY25 (January) projections, announced the sale of Pura Vida and provided initial FY26 guidance, which, even with the exclusion of Pura Vida, demonstrates the return to prominence for Vera Bradley will be a longer than expected undertaking.
That said, with a cash rich balance sheet, signs of positives in the direct channel and management quickly reacting to customer commentary, we believe the company has the ability (and financial resources) to switch the customer base and register compelling returns.
As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating, but, in a bow to what will be another rebuilding year in FY26 cutting out price target to $4 (from $5.50).

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group , Softbank Group, Knowledge Realty Trust, Banco Bradesco , China Jinmao Holdings, Assura PLC, CRE Inc/Japan and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

ESR Group (1821 HK): Steady Progress
Bottom Fishing: SoftBank (9984 JP) Looks Attractive After -18% Drop
Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Assura’s Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion
CRE Inc/Japan (3458 JP): 1H FY07/25 flash update

ESR Group (1821 HK): Steady Progress

By Arun George

ESR Group (1821 HK)’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.
On 7 March, the consortium disclosed two additional irrevocable (3.47% of outstanding shares) and satisfied two regulatory preconditions (UK FCA and Singapore MAS).
Since announcing the offer, peers have materially derated, lowering the vote risk. At the last close and for an end August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.5%/10.1%

Bottom Fishing: SoftBank (9984 JP) Looks Attractive After -18% Drop

By Nico Rosti

Softbank Group (9984 JP) has lost nearly 18% of its stock value since February 7th. The stock has been falling for 4 weeks, our model indicates a very oversold condition.
SoftBank’s has a number of strategic investments and initiatives that make it an attractive investment.
Below, we outline key fundamental factors that align with our quantitative model’s view, suggesting the stock is oversold and could be a compelling buy at its current price.

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) looks to raise about US$712m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Kotak, Axis, BoFA, ICICI, IIFL, JMFin, MS, SBI.
Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India. KRT covered 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per CBRE report.
The portfolio includes 6 city-center offices and 24 business parks/centers. These assets are spread across 6 cities — Hyderabad, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Gurugram, and GIFT City.

Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations

By Victor Galliano

We stay negative on Nubank, even after the recent share correction; our rationale is tough competition, especially in Mexico, and worsening credit quality to remain a key risk in Brazil
We believe that the fundamental outlook for Bradesco should improve further, supported by its strong insurance operations; conservatively, we estimate insurance could account for two thirds of group value
Our neutral on Banco do Brasil is due largely to heightened political risk; holding company Itausa is the best indirect vehicle through which to gain equity exposure in Banco Itaú

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Jinmao, Nickel Industries, Vedanta Resources, Bharti Airtel
In the US, JOLTS job openings increased slightly to 7.74 mn (7.60 mn e / 7.51 mn revised p) in January, with the job openings rate little changed m-o-m at 4.6%. Layoffs declined for a fourth straight month to the lowest level since June 2024.
Overall, the JOLTS report showed that the labour market was steady in January, albeit demand for labour could soften in the months ahead.

Assura’s Takeover: Buy as KKR’s Final Offer Nears Completion

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

With a 75.6% estimated probability, the Assura takeover by KKR and Stonepeak is highly likely, given board support and minimal offer sweetening, signaling no further bid increases.
Fair Valuation: The 49.4p per share offer represents a 32% premium to pre-bid trading levels, aligning with Assura’s NAV, and exceeding PHP’s rejected 43p per share merger proposal.
KKR may extract cost savings from Assura’s 12% EPRA cost ratio, potentially saving £3+ million annually, alongside additional efficiencies from delisting and financial restructuring.

CRE Inc/Japan (3458 JP): 1H FY07/25 flash update

By Shared Research

In 1H FY07/25, the company reported sales of JPY22.6bn (-3.9% YoY) and business profit of JPY3.1bn (+124.0% YoY).
The company resolved to support a Tender Offer by SMFL MIRAI Partners and plans to delist its stock.
As of end-January 2025, floor space under management reached approximately 6.6mn sqm with high occupancy rates.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals, Kissei Pharmaceutical, Achieve Life Sciences , Ainos , CellSource and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Pre-IPO Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals – Future Commercialization Is a Test
Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP): FY25 Looks Stable; Recent Licensing Deals Key To Near Term Growth
ACHV: 2Q:25 NDA Submission
Ainos, Inc: ASE Collaboration Expands AI Nose Opportunity in Smart Manufacturing
CellSource (4880 JP): Q1 FY10/25 flash update

Pre-IPO Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals – Future Commercialization Is a Test

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

KJ017 is the first and only recombinant human hyaluronidase to reach NDA stage in China. Bao needs to combine SC Formulations with antibodies. KJ103 may not be a blockbuster variety.
Considering multiple mature FSH products have been on the market for many years and also been recognized by patients, Bao needs to invest in educating the market/patients to accept SJ02.
After Series C+ Financing, Post-money valuation reached RMB4.87 billion. However, we think there could be some uncertainties in terms of future commercialization performance of Bao’s three core products.

Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP): FY25 Looks Stable; Recent Licensing Deals Key To Near Term Growth

By Tina Banerjee

Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP) reported 14% YoY jump in revenue during 9MFY25 driven by Beova and Tavneos amidst price revision pressures and generic competition.
The company has reiterated FY25 guidance of revenue rising 14% YoY, with major drugs witnessing growth.
Main trigger point happens to be the in-licensing deal and the sub-licensing agreements the company has signed with various players giving an opportunity to expand its market in near future.

ACHV: 2Q:25 NDA Submission

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Achieve Life Sciences is developing cytisinicline for use as a smoking cessation treatment in the United States and rest of world.
Topline results from ORCA-2 were reported in April 2022 and for ORCA-3 in May 2023.
Results exceeded expectations on safety & efficacy parameters.

Ainos, Inc: ASE Collaboration Expands AI Nose Opportunity in Smart Manufacturing

By Water Tower Research

Broadens AI Nose partnership with leading semiconductor company.
Ainos entered a strategic collaboration with Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE) to integrate AI Nose into ASE’s semiconductor packaging and testing smart factories.
AI Nose should further enhance ASE’s fully automated, smart manufacturing facilities with improved air monitoring, AI- predictive maintenance and efficiency, process optimization, and better environmental sustainability.

CellSource (4880 JP): Q1 FY10/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Revenue decreased by 27.6% YoY to JPY849mn, with operating and recurring losses of JPY62mn and JPY61mn, respectively.
Contract processing services revenue fell 16.4% YoY, with orders declining 12.4% YoY to 4,981 in Q1 FY10/25.
Medical device sales revenue dropped 26.7% YoY, while cosmetics sales revenue decreased 65.2% YoY in Q1 FY10/25.

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Mar 13

Daily Brief Australia: Rio Tinto Ltd, Silk Logistics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification
Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows
Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
Palliser’s reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
If the Unification completes, S&P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.

Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues