Smartkarma Daily Briefs

A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.

Murata Mfg (6981) Accelerated Overseas Offer – Minimal Index But Low Vol Vs Peers

Today after the close, Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) announced an equity offering worth roughly US$870mm if the stock prices 10% below last.
Unlike “regular” secondary offerings, this is available only to overseas investors, and bookbuilding is very quick. This “increases the size” relative to its headline (no retail uptake).
At 11 days of ADV and 3.3% of shares out, it has a certain size, but the stock is well-owned by foreigners, and not terribly volatile vs Peers.

Murata Manufacturing Placement – Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong

A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$900m via selling around 3% of Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), in another cross-shareholding selldown.
The company’s shares haven’t done much over the past few years and recent share price performance as well hasn’t been the best
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY – Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

I wrote about this stock in May 2024. At the time, Japan activist Murakami-san had gone from 5% to 20% in a hurry. Shortly after, he was at 29%.
Then he fiddled/sold/bought/waited/sold. The stock fell in late 2024 as a quant fund sold. Murakami-san started buying again. In 3 weeks to 7 January bought from 27.02% to 34.51%.
By my calculation, as of last week he has 38.4% of votes. This is worth a closer look again. It’s a discount to BVPS but ask yourself why this big.

Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.
• Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.
Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.

Vector Inc (6058 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

Revenue decreased by 2.2% YoY to JPY42.5bn, while operating profit increased by 14.6% YoY to JPY4.0bn.
PR and Advertising segment saw a 55.2% YoY increase in operating profit due to high-margin projects and cost reversals.
Direct Marketing revenue fell 0.5% YoY, with Vitabrid’s Terminaria First sales growing 21.2% YoY in Q3.

FP Partner (7388 JP): Full-year FY11/24 flash update

FY11/24 revenue was JPY35.6bn (+16.6% YoY), operating profit JPY5.3bn (-4.0% YoY), with EPS at JPY169.85.
FY11/25 forecasts JPY40.2bn revenue (+13.0% YoY), JPY6.1bn operating profit (+15.0% YoY), and JPY175.89 EPS.
Company plans growth investments, 700 new hires, and aims for 100,000 policy transfers in FY11/25.

Kurotani Corp (3168 JP): Q1 FY08/25 flash update

In Q1 FY08/25, the company reported revenue of JPY21.4bn, with a significant YoY increase of 20.3%.
Operating profit decreased by 93.9% YoY to JPY14mn, impacted by rising costs and increased SG&A expenses.
The Non-Ferrous Metals segment experienced an operating loss of JPY7mn, despite a 20.4% YoY revenue increase to JPY21.2bn.

J Frontier Co Ltd (2934 JP): Q1 and Q2 FY05/25 flash update

Revenue increased by 28.5% YoY to JPY5.4bn, while operating profit decreased by 50.0% YoY to JPY18mn.
The company transferred AIGATE career Co., Ltd., resulting in an extraordinary gain of JPY5.7mn from the sale.
Healthcare Marketing business revenue declined YoY due to a large advertising order impact in Q1 FY05/23.

IDOM Inc (7599 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

In cumulative Q3 FY02/25, sales increased by JPY72.8bn (23.7% YoY), driven by large store operations and retail sales.
Operating profit rose by JPY4.2bn (+39.1% YoY), with gross profit per retail unit increasing to JPY440,000 (+40,000 YoY).
SG&A expenses rose due to personnel costs and rent from large store openings, impacting operating profit downward by JPY4.7bn.

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Jan 16

Most Read: Macromill, Inc, Jamco Corp, Tokyo Metro, Murata Manufacturing, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Avjennings Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Macromill (3978 JP) – Five Major Investors Have 50+%; CVC Extends and Will Need to Bump Or Walk
Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap
Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel
Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break
Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) – No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing
Murata Mfg (6981) Accelerated Overseas Offer – Minimal Index But Low Vol Vs Peers
Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price
Murata Manufacturing Placement – Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong
AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee Emerges with a Competing Offer

Macromill (3978 JP) – Five Major Investors Have 50+%; CVC Extends and Will Need to Bump Or Walk

Three pre-existing Large Shareholders have not sold down. Two new 5+% shareholders have appeared since Tender Launch. Together, their reports give them 51.7% of shares out.
That provides them with a significantly strong implied negotiating hand. Given the midpoint of the Target Company’s Advisor’s DCF Range, I expect a bump.
Today the Bidder extended for 10 more days. They didn’t have the shares to close. I expect they won’t unless they bump a lot.

Bain To Launch an MBO for Aircraft Maintenance Co JAMCO (7408) ¥1800 Is Too Cheap

Bain is buying out JAMCO (a long time ago called Itochu Aircraft Maintenance) from Itochu, ANA, Bain’s own portfolio company, and the public. It’s an expected deal. A done deal.
It is being done too cheaply. The price is 6x next year’s expected EBIT. This year expected ROE is 22%. Next year could be double that.
And the company has more in non-operating financial assets than its net equity. And a lot of really old land assets are not marked up. Just a shame.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Index Inclusions – Light at the End of the Tunnel

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) listed on 23 October and was added to the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 November.
Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) was not expected to be added to one global index (it was not added), while it was expected to be added to the other (and missed).
The stock could be added to one global index in February (its close!) and to the other in June (pretty much a sure thing).

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) – No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$1.5bn.
In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to any indices but there should be inclusions at subsequent rebalances, especially once the cornerstone investor lock-up expires.

Murata Mfg (6981) Accelerated Overseas Offer – Minimal Index But Low Vol Vs Peers

Today after the close, Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) announced an equity offering worth roughly US$870mm if the stock prices 10% below last.
Unlike “regular” secondary offerings, this is available only to overseas investors, and bookbuilding is very quick. This “increases the size” relative to its headline (no retail uptake).
At 11 days of ADV and 3.3% of shares out, it has a certain size, but the stock is well-owned by foreigners, and not terribly volatile vs Peers.

Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price

Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is heading for a deal break. LVC has not changed its shareholding since amassing a blocking stake.
In the absence of a last-ditch effort by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price.
Based on four methods, the potential deal break price is HK$17.28, 12% below the last close price of HK$19.58.

Murata Manufacturing Placement – Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong

A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$900m via selling around 3% of Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), in another cross-shareholding selldown.
The company’s shares haven’t done much over the past few years and recent share price performance as well hasn’t been the best
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee Emerges with a Competing Offer

Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) disclosed a competing non-binding proposal from Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) at A$0.70, a 4.5% premium to AVID’s A$0.67 offer.
The potential for a Ho Bee competing offer was discussed in AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing.
Despite the hefty premium to the undisturbed price, the Ho Bee offer is below NTA. Therefore, there is headroom for a bidding war as an offer at NTA implies A$0.81.

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Jan 16

Daily Brief Industrials: Mitsui Matsushima, Orient Overseas International, Geek+, Yinson Holdings, CBAK Energy Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY – Now At 38% Aiming at Control?
Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?
Geek+ IPO Preview: Extending Leadership in Warehouse Automation Sector, New Robotic IPO in Hong Kong
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
CBAT: Positive year-end news countered by continued tariff concerns for battery companies.

[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY – Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

I wrote about this stock in May 2024. At the time, Japan activist Murakami-san had gone from 5% to 20% in a hurry. Shortly after, he was at 29%.
Then he fiddled/sold/bought/waited/sold. The stock fell in late 2024 as a quant fund sold. Murakami-san started buying again. In 3 weeks to 7 January bought from 27.02% to 34.51%.
By my calculation, as of last week he has 38.4% of votes. This is worth a closer look again. It’s a discount to BVPS but ask yourself why this big.

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Lower average freight rate momentum and deceleration in 4Q24 load factor expansions for Orient Overseas International (316 HK) have raised alarm for a weaker industry outlook.
Spot freight rate has come down by 6.8% in the last two weeks. The potential ease of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East may induce a capacity return.
The consensus forecasts for FY25-26 have been downgraded by 5-9%, suggesting caution in the market. Its dividend yield will lower from 14.0% in FY24 to just 4.3% in FY26.

Geek+ IPO Preview: Extending Leadership in Warehouse Automation Sector, New Robotic IPO in Hong Kong

By Andrei Zakharov

Geek+, a Beijing-based autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) unicorn with focus on smart logistics, filed to go public in Hong Kong.
The AI & robotics company was backed by Warburg Pincus, GGV Capital, D1 Capital Partners, Intel Capital, Vertex Ventures, and Gaorong Capital, among others.
Beijing Geekplus IPO comes after another robotics unicorn, a leading manufacturer of collaborative robots Shenzhen Dobot, raised ~HK$681M in its HK IPO in December.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

In the US, the PPI for final demand unexpectedly eased to 0.2% m-o-m in December 2024 (0.4% e / 0.4% p) and came in below estimates at 3.3% y-o-y (3.5% e / 3.0% p).
Excluding food and energy, the PPI was flat m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p) and 3.5% y-o-y (3.8% e / 3.5% revised p).
In the US, the PPI for final demand unexpectedly eased to 0.2% m-o-m in December 2024 (0.4% e / 0.4% p) and came in below estimates at 3.3% y-o-y (3.5% e / 3.0% p).

CBAT: Positive year-end news countered by continued tariff concerns for battery companies.

CBAK Energy Technology’ has announced new battery cell supply agreements with Anker Innovations and Ather Energy in the past month.
CBAK continues to form new relationships and enter new markets which bodes well for the company as it adds a significant amount of new manufacturing capacity in the coming years.
On December 30th, the company announced that it was accelerating the planned expansion at its Nanjing facility.

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Jan 16

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Venture Global LNG, Crude Oil, Amerigo Resources , Pulsar Helium, JSW Steel Ltd, Kurotani Corp, Pactiv Evergreen , Harbour Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Venture Global Inc (VG): Massive $2b+ Cash Raise to Kick-Off 2025 IPO Calendar
The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?
ARG: Large Dividend Yield & Leverage to Copper
Pulsar Helium Inc. (TSX-V: PLSR): Better than expected results at Jetstream #1
JSW Steel – ESG Report
Kurotani Corp (3168 JP): Q1 FY08/25 flash update
Pactiv Evergreen Inc (PTVE) – Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024
Harbour Energy: Unlocking Hidden Value in European E&P

Venture Global Inc (VG): Massive $2b+ Cash Raise to Kick-Off 2025 IPO Calendar

By IPO Boutique

Report Below Includes Key Components from Prospectus Including Overview, Market Advantages, Competitors & Risks
Venture Global (VG US) will still own 97.9% of the Voting Power
Revenue -45% in the Last Nine Months in 2024 vs. 2023

The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?

By Ulrik Simmelholt

Before we begin, let’s discuss the Trump tariffs, as he increasingly sounds serious about them.
His recent message on Truth Social suggests he is ready to roll out a series of initiatives next week, including those on trade, cryptocurrency, and a range of other topics.
Every counterpart we speak to expects Trump to take action over the course of his presidency but also anticipates him backing down if the market pushes back against tariffs with a stronger USD, higher bond yields, and weaker risk sentiment.

ARG: Large Dividend Yield & Leverage to Copper

By Atrium Research

Amerigo has a stellar capital return policy, currently offering a 7.4% dividend yield.
The Company has returned C$0.62/share in the form of dividends and buybacks to shareholders since 2021.
ARG has a strategic contract with a world-class asset, Codelco’s El Teniente, and is highly leveraged to the copper price.

Pulsar Helium Inc. (TSX-V: PLSR): Better than expected results at Jetstream #1

By Auctus Advisors

The Jetstream #1 well has been deepened by 2,900 feet to 5,100 feet.
This is significantly more than the expected ~1,650 feet as the company encountered consistent and regular helium shows while drilling that continued beyond the original expected depth.
The mud log gas contained up to 7.2% helium.

JSW Steel – ESG Report

By Trung Nguyen

Incorporated in India, JSW Steel was established in 1994 and listed on the Indian stock exchange in 1995.
The company is the largest steel producer in the country (only taking into account capacity in India) and seventh-largest in the world.
It had 34.7 mtpa of capacity at FYE 2023-24, most of which was based in India (33.2 mtpa).

Kurotani Corp (3168 JP): Q1 FY08/25 flash update

In Q1 FY08/25, the company reported revenue of JPY21.4bn, with a significant YoY increase of 20.3%.
Operating profit decreased by 93.9% YoY to JPY14mn, impacted by rising costs and increased SG&A expenses.
The Non-Ferrous Metals segment experienced an operating loss of JPY7mn, despite a 20.4% YoY revenue increase to JPY21.2bn.

Pactiv Evergreen Inc (PTVE) – Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Investment firm bullish on Pactiv shares, forecasting fair value of $24 per share in next 12 months
Pactiv has divested paper mill assets, now a leading sustainable plastic packaging manufacturer for food sectors
Potential for margin improvement and EBITDA growth through volume expansion and operational optimization, undervalued compared to peers, promising free cash flow profile for debt reduction.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Harbour Energy: Unlocking Hidden Value in European E&P

By Massif Capital Research

Harbour Energy (HBR) is a compelling investment opportunity in the European Independent E&P sector.
Through strategic mergers and acquisitions, HBR has become one of the largest independent oil and gas producers globally, with a diversified asset base, robust financial profile and a steep discount to intrinsic value.
The recent acquisition of Wintershall Dea’s non-Russian assets for $11.2 billion marks a pivotal moment for HBR.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jan 16

Daily Brief Industrials: Mitsui Matsushima, Orient Overseas International, Geek+, Yinson Holdings, CBAK Energy Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY – Now At 38% Aiming at Control?
Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?
Geek+ IPO Preview: Extending Leadership in Warehouse Automation Sector, New Robotic IPO in Hong Kong
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
CBAT: Positive year-end news countered by continued tariff concerns for battery companies.

[JAPAN Activism] Murakami Buying Mitsui Matshima (1518 JP) BIGLY – Now At 38% Aiming at Control?

I wrote about this stock in May 2024. At the time, Japan activist Murakami-san had gone from 5% to 20% in a hurry. Shortly after, he was at 29%.
Then he fiddled/sold/bought/waited/sold. The stock fell in late 2024 as a quant fund sold. Murakami-san started buying again. In 3 weeks to 7 January bought from 27.02% to 34.51%.
By my calculation, as of last week he has 38.4% of votes. This is worth a closer look again. It’s a discount to BVPS but ask yourself why this big.

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Initial Warning Signs?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Lower average freight rate momentum and deceleration in 4Q24 load factor expansions for Orient Overseas International (316 HK) have raised alarm for a weaker industry outlook.
Spot freight rate has come down by 6.8% in the last two weeks. The potential ease of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East may induce a capacity return.
The consensus forecasts for FY25-26 have been downgraded by 5-9%, suggesting caution in the market. Its dividend yield will lower from 14.0% in FY24 to just 4.3% in FY26.

Geek+ IPO Preview: Extending Leadership in Warehouse Automation Sector, New Robotic IPO in Hong Kong

By Andrei Zakharov

Geek+, a Beijing-based autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) unicorn with focus on smart logistics, filed to go public in Hong Kong.
The AI & robotics company was backed by Warburg Pincus, GGV Capital, D1 Capital Partners, Intel Capital, Vertex Ventures, and Gaorong Capital, among others.
Beijing Geekplus IPO comes after another robotics unicorn, a leading manufacturer of collaborative robots Shenzhen Dobot, raised ~HK$681M in its HK IPO in December.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

In the US, the PPI for final demand unexpectedly eased to 0.2% m-o-m in December 2024 (0.4% e / 0.4% p) and came in below estimates at 3.3% y-o-y (3.5% e / 3.0% p).
Excluding food and energy, the PPI was flat m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p) and 3.5% y-o-y (3.8% e / 3.5% revised p).
In the US, the PPI for final demand unexpectedly eased to 0.2% m-o-m in December 2024 (0.4% e / 0.4% p) and came in below estimates at 3.3% y-o-y (3.5% e / 3.0% p).

CBAT: Positive year-end news countered by continued tariff concerns for battery companies.

CBAK Energy Technology’ has announced new battery cell supply agreements with Anker Innovations and Ather Energy in the past month.
CBAK continues to form new relationships and enter new markets which bodes well for the company as it adds a significant amount of new manufacturing capacity in the coming years.
On December 30th, the company announced that it was accelerating the planned expansion at its Nanjing facility.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 16

Daily Brief Financials: Avjennings Ltd, First REIT, FP Partner and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee Emerges with a Competing Offer
Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Jan-2025): Santarli, Apex $368M top bid for West Singapore site
FP Partner (7388 JP): Full-year FY11/24 flash update

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Ho Bee Emerges with a Competing Offer

Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) disclosed a competing non-binding proposal from Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) at A$0.70, a 4.5% premium to AVID’s A$0.67 offer.
The potential for a Ho Bee competing offer was discussed in AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing.
Despite the hefty premium to the undisturbed price, the Ho Bee offer is below NTA. Therefore, there is headroom for a bidding war as an offer at NTA implies A$0.81.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Jan-2025): Santarli, Apex $368M top bid for West Singapore site

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

Santarli and Apex make joint bid worth $368M for a site in Western Singapore, expanding their real estate portfolio.
CVC-backed chain competes for First REIT’s Indonesian assets valued at $599M, increasing their presence in the market.
EdgeConneX ventures into Japan with a 140MW data center project in Greater Osaka, showcasing their global growth strategy.

FP Partner (7388 JP): Full-year FY11/24 flash update

FY11/24 revenue was JPY35.6bn (+16.6% YoY), operating profit JPY5.3bn (-4.0% YoY), with EPS at JPY169.85.
FY11/25 forecasts JPY40.2bn revenue (+13.0% YoY), JPY6.1bn operating profit (+15.0% YoY), and JPY175.89 EPS.
Company plans growth investments, 700 new hires, and aims for 100,000 policy transfers in FY11/25.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Personalised Alerts
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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 16

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Murata Manufacturing, Sea , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Delta Electronics Thailand , ASML Holding NV, Shift Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) – No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness
Murata Mfg (6981) Accelerated Overseas Offer – Minimal Index But Low Vol Vs Peers
Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – ASEAN, ANZ, ADRs
Murata Manufacturing Placement – Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong
TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead
Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases
Asml Holding Nv (ASML) – Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024
Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside
Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible
Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) – No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.

Murata Mfg (6981) Accelerated Overseas Offer – Minimal Index But Low Vol Vs Peers

Today after the close, Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) announced an equity offering worth roughly US$870mm if the stock prices 10% below last.
Unlike “regular” secondary offerings, this is available only to overseas investors, and bookbuilding is very quick. This “increases the size” relative to its headline (no retail uptake).
At 11 days of ADV and 3.3% of shares out, it has a certain size, but the stock is well-owned by foreigners, and not terribly volatile vs Peers.

Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline – ASEAN, ANZ, ADRs

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, with a look at ASEAN, ANZ and ADRs.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.

Murata Manufacturing Placement – Recent Momentum Isn’t Particularly Strong

A group of shareholders aim to raise around US$900m via selling around 3% of Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), in another cross-shareholding selldown.
The company’s shares haven’t done much over the past few years and recent share price performance as well hasn’t been the best
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 & Q125 Look Ahead

By William Keating

December 2024 revenues of NT$278.16 billion, up 0.8% MoM and up a remarkable 57.8% YoY. It was the second highest monthly revenue in the company’s history.
Q424 revenue amounted to NT$868,460. At the company’s forecasted exchange rate for Q4, NT$32 to the US$, this amounts to $27.14 billion, the company’s highest quarterly revenue ever
We expect 2025 to be another growth year for TSMC, likely in the mid to high teens range. Expect Q125 to be down ~5% QoQ based on normal seasonality.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is trading at a huge valuation premium to Delta Electronics (2308 TT), though that has narrowed over the last couple of months.
Delta Electronics Thailand has already been on the Market Surveillance list for 2 months and inclusion for another 2 months will mean SET 50 Index deletion in June.
A placement by Delta Electronics (2308 TT) is not out of the question and that further increases the downside risk for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).

Asml Holding Nv (ASML) – Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024

By Value Investors Club

ASML’s total shareholder return is lagging behind its semicap peers and TSMC
The company’s share price recently experienced a significant two-day drop
Despite past reservations, the author sees potential for a good risk/reward opportunity in buying ASML stock due to better pricing and negative investor sentiment on lithography

Shift 1Q: Earnings Beat with Further Upside

Shift Inc (3697 JP) ’s share price went up by about 13% today following the release of its 1QFY08/2025 results yesterday. Share price is up 19% YTD.
• Shift’s aggressive investment on HR and system reinforcement had resulted in a decline in the company’s margins since 1QFY08/2024, this drove share prices down.
Shift has once again proved that its business model is resilient and we expect the company’s earnings to continue to see strong growth going forward.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; Earnings Preview; Delta Thailand Convertible

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Results Today; Arizona Production of 4nm Started, Yield on Par with Taiwan
TSMC Q424 Earnings Preview, 2025 Outlook & Q125 Look Ahead
Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Convertible Sale; Delta Thailand Should Underperform Vs Parent Co

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Delta Thailand Weakness Amid Block Trade and Convertible Bond News
Delta Taiwan Offering Convertible Bonds, Convertible into Delta Thailand Shares
Delta Thailand Still Overvalued Relative to Delta Taiwan — Short Delta Thailand vs. Long Delta Taiwan

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Jan 16

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Moderna , Enjin, J Frontier Co Ltd, Evaxion Biotech A/S, X4 Pharmaceuticals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price
Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- These Are the Reasons Why LVC May Vote Against the Privatization
Moderna In Crisis? A Possible Wake-Up Call That Investors Have Been Dreading!
Enjin (7370 JP): 1H FY05/25 flash update
J Frontier Co Ltd (2934 JP): Q1 and Q2 FY05/25 flash update
EVAX: Share Ratio Adjustment
XFOR: Receives €28.5 Upfront for Licensing Agreement with Norgine

Henlius (2696 HK): Musings on the Deal Break Price

Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is heading for a deal break. LVC has not changed its shareholding since amassing a blocking stake.
In the absence of a last-ditch effort by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) to rescue the deal, the key question is the potential deal break price.
Based on four methods, the potential deal break price is HK$17.28, 12% below the last close price of HK$19.58.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)- These Are the Reasons Why LVC May Vote Against the Privatization

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fosun hopes to privatize Henlius at a low price. As usual, it does not consider the interests of long-term investors, who may express their “dissatisfaction” by opposing the privatization.
Lin Lijun clearly has bargaining chips. He may ask Fosun to provide a clear plan for future relisting/asset restructuring, and how the Share Alternative will be linked to this plan.
There is a possibility this privatization may fail. Such possibility is not low, because investors will only support the privatization if they can be sure that their interests are protected.

Moderna In Crisis? A Possible Wake-Up Call That Investors Have Been Dreading!

By Baptista Research

Moderna, Inc. is undergoing a profound transformation as it navigates a post-pandemic landscape marked by mounting caution among investors.
After delivering record-breaking Covid-19 vaccine sales that propelled it into the spotlight during global crisis years, the biotech giant now faces significant headwinds.
Recent updates in financial performance and strategic repositioning have underscored a shift in outlook.

Enjin (7370 JP): 1H FY05/25 flash update

Revenue for FY05/25 was JPY2.7bn, with operating profit at JPY548mn, recurring profit at JPY548mn, and net income at JPY380mn.
The company reorganized into three segments: PR Consulting Services, Media Platform Services, and abolished its executive officer system.
Revenue progress for FY05/25 was 51.9% of the forecast, with operating profit at 73.8% and recurring profit at 74.6%.

J Frontier Co Ltd (2934 JP): Q1 and Q2 FY05/25 flash update

Revenue increased by 28.5% YoY to JPY5.4bn, while operating profit decreased by 50.0% YoY to JPY18mn.
The company transferred AIGATE career Co., Ltd., resulting in an extraordinary gain of JPY5.7mn from the sale.
Healthcare Marketing business revenue declined YoY due to a large advertising order impact in Q1 FY05/23.

EVAX: Share Ratio Adjustment

EVAX is a clinical stage company that has proprietary AI models designed to more efficiently and more accurately target much-needed treatments.
The company has two streams of possible revenue: from the treatments themselves and from the licensing of the AI technology.
The company changed the ADS ratio from 1 ADS representing 10 ordinary shares to 1 ADS from 50 ordinary shares.

XFOR: Receives €28.5 Upfront for Licensing Agreement with Norgine

On January 13, 2025, X4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XFOR) announced a licensing agreement with Norgine to commercialize mavorixafor in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand.
X4 will receive €28.5 upfront and is eligible to receive up to €226 million in potential regulatory and commercial milestone payments along with tiered, double-digit royalties up to the mid-twenties.
X4 will manufacture and supply mavorixafor and Norgine will reimburse X4 for CMO costs plus a low teen percentage of the CMO costs.

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Jan 16

Daily Brief Consumer: Hyundai Motor India , LG Electronics India, Tesla , Planet Fitness Inc Cl A, Allied Blenders & Distillers, Garmin Ltd, Wayfair Inc Class A, Health And Happiness (H&H), Vector Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near
LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Known and Well Loved
Tesla Innovations Unveiled: New Model Y & Robotics Breakthroughs That Will Blow Your Mind!
Hyundai Motor India: Anchor Investor Lock-In Period Ends Today
Planet Fitness (PLNT) – Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024
The Beat Ideas: Allied Blenders & Distillers- Liquor Premiumization Play
Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: Q4 2024
Wayfair’s Shocking Pivot: Exit Germany and a Cautionary Road Ahead for 2025!
Health And Happiness – Event Flash – Launches Tender Offer And Concurrent Notes Issuance
Vector Inc (6058 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.

LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – The Positives – Well Known and Well Loved

LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India IPO.
LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Tesla Innovations Unveiled: New Model Y & Robotics Breakthroughs That Will Blow Your Mind!

By Baptista Research

Tesla is once again reshaping the automotive and energy landscape with its latest wave of innovations that span from groundbreaking vehicle updates to advances in artificial intelligence and energy solutions.
The company’s updated Model Y in China, a redesign aimed at maximizing efficiency, represents just one facet of its dynamic transformation.
Recent Q3 2024 earnings discussions revealed record deliveries, improved vehicle safety metrics, and ambitious plans for scaling autonomous driving technologies and energy storage capabilities.

Hyundai Motor India: Anchor Investor Lock-In Period Ends Today

By Devi Subhakesan

Lock up expiry today of 21.2 million shares held by Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN)‘s anchor investors. This could improve free float to 17.5% with rest held by the parent.
Hyundai India Management is positive about its CY2025 outlook and expects to grow by similar numbers or more in 2025 as it did in 2024.
Creta Electric’s launch is scheduled on Jan 17th; Hyundai hopes to replicate the growth and excitement seen with its original Creta model.

Planet Fitness (PLNT) – Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Planet Fitness plans to open new stores over the next 10 years, with a focus on international markets and exploring new retail formats like off-mall locations
The company aims to open 44 new clubs in 3Q24 and 260 clubs in the next 3 years
PLNT’s price increase on memberships and aggressive new store development strategy position it for strong comp growth and expansion, capitalizing on the demand for fitness and wellness services.

The Beat Ideas: Allied Blenders & Distillers- Liquor Premiumization Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) is shifting from mass-market spirits to premium offerings, leveraging IPO funds to reduce debt and boost margins amidst rising alco-beverage demand.
This pivot could enhance profitability, thanks to stronger pricing power, higher brand recall, and sustained ROCE above capital costs within India’s highly regulated but fast-growing alcoholic beverage industry.
Despite regulatory hurdles and stretched valuations, ABD’s balance sheet cleanup, premiumization strategy, and dominant mass-market presence suggest considerable long-term potential in India’s expanding alcohol sector.

Upslope’s Quarterly Investor Letter: Q4 2024

By Upslope Capital Management

Q4 was the most challenging quarter for Upslope since early 2021 (peak of the SPAC/meme stock bubble).
Longs underperformed and shorts dragged. Month-to-date performance has been similarly challenging (approximately -4% as of this writing).
In addition to a tough market environment, I made mistakes that made things worse.

Wayfair’s Shocking Pivot: Exit Germany and a Cautionary Road Ahead for 2025!

By Baptista Research

Wayfair, the prominent online furniture retailer, has recently made headlines with its decision to exit the German market and restructure its global operations by cutting approximately 730 jobs.
The move, aimed at reallocating resources towards more promising growth areas such as physical retail and key international markets, marks a significant strategic pivot amid a sluggish home furnishings sector.
The German market, which contributed only a low single-digit percentage to the company’s overall revenue, has long posed challenges due to weak macroeconomic conditions and limited brand awareness.

Health And Happiness – Event Flash – Launches Tender Offer And Concurrent Notes Issuance

By Leonard Law, CFA

Health and Happiness’ (H&H) proposed tender offer and new notes issuance will extend its debt maturity profile and alleviate debt repayment pressure in FY 2026.
In our view, the high tender offer price of 109.8 is to incentivise bondholders to tender and subscribe to the new notes.
We see fair value for the proposed notes at c. 8%.

Vector Inc (6058 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update