Smartkarma Daily Briefs

By Small Cap Consumer Research

Travel Food Services leads India’s airport QSR sector with a 24% market share and expands internationally through strategic partnerships, capitalizing on the growing global travel F&B market.
With a debt-free balance sheet and robust margins, TFS ensures scalable growth through strategic joint ventures and partnerships, minimizing capital expenditure while expanding operations.
With its diverse brand portfolio and a presence in high-traffic airports across India and abroad. The company’s expansion into new airports ensures sustained growth in the travel food services sector.

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Jul 10

Daily Brief United States: Meta, Figma, Brightstar Lottery, JAKKS Pacific , Lands’ End Inc, Earth Science Tech, Nurexone Biologic, Revelation Biosciences , Spectral AI, Transcat and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Meta Just Bought into EssilorLuxottica.
Figma Inc (FIG): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Software IPO
Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) Capital Return is Better Than Expected
JAKK: 2H Signposts: Creating the New Normal; Reiterating Buy Rating, $40 PT
LE: 2H Signposts: Moving Past the Gap to Growth; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
ETST: Initiating Coverage of a Strategic Holding Company Focused on the Healthcare Industry
NRXBF: Test Results Show Spinal Injury Recovery
REVB: Topline Results About to Be Released
MDAI: DeepView De Novo Submission
What Do Investors See in Sleepy Transcat?

Meta Just Bought into EssilorLuxottica.

By Fallacy Alarm

We won’t be generation heads-down forever. Handsets are impractical as our primary device to interact with information technology.
When we use them, we lose touch to the real world. Headsets are the obvious next step to allow for a more integrated experience.
Meta has been betting on the handset-to-headset transition for more than a decade. And they have been doing so with courage and determination.

Figma Inc (FIG): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Software IPO

By IPO Boutique

Figma (FIG US) filed for an IPO on the NYSE on July 1st for a debut later this month.
Their revenue was $749.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing 48% year-over-year growth.
Adobe’s acquisition of Figma collapsed in December 2023 after regulatory hurdles paving the way for this IPO.

Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) Capital Return is Better Than Expected

By Richard Howe

Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) announced a better than expected capital return program following the closing of the Apollo transaction.
Brightstar will pay a $3 special dividend (7/14 ex date) and buy back $500MM of stock.
Brightstar is in a quiet period, but I would expect it to aggressively buy back stock following its earnings report on July 29, 2025.

JAKK: 2H Signposts: Creating the New Normal; Reiterating Buy Rating, $40 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for JAKKS Pacific as we look at key trends for 2H2025 and beyond.
With toy production, especially on the lower end, firmly established in China, and with limited near term options, JAKKS will, as they have done throughout their 30-year history, have to transform to maximize overall returns.
We believe management has the financial firepower, relationships and product offerings to maintain their strong market position and once again quickly return to driving solid top and bottom line growth.

LE: 2H Signposts: Moving Past the Gap to Growth; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Lands’ End as we look at key trends for 2HFY25 and beyond.
We believe Lands’ End is poised to move into the next phase of the transformation of the company into a higher margin, higher return global brand, as the recently launched licensing initiatives begin expanding the overall category levels, as opposed to shifting prior owned categories into licensing relationships which, while driving higher return on assets, led to YoY revenue declines.
Further, with continued international expansion (both owned and licensed) on tap, further key wins at Lands’ End Outfitters and the potential to continue to drive higher returns (and sales) in the core business as the company shifts the business model, we believe Lands’ End remains well situated to drive further top and bottom line upside, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target.

ETST: Initiating Coverage of a Strategic Holding Company Focused on the Healthcare Industry

Earth Science Tech, Inc. (ETST) is a strategic holding company, with wholly-owned subsidiaries operating in the compounding pharmaceutical (RxCompoundStore.com, MisterMeds.com), telehealth (Peaks Curative, Las Villas Health Care, DOConsultations.com), real estate (Avenvi), and consumer products (Magnefuse) sectors.
Senior executives remain focused on managing and optimizing company operations, as well as acquiring complementary assets.
The firm was incorporated in 2010, with headquarters in Miami, Florida.

NRXBF: Test Results Show Spinal Injury Recovery

NurExone (OTC-NRXBF) is a preclinical stage biotech company that is developing a breakthrough treatment for spinal cord injuries that has the potential to dramatically improve lives.
The technology involved also has the potential to more efficiently get other treatments to the needed area.
The company announced results from preclinical testing that showed higher doses of ExoPTEN resulted in subjects regaining mobility after a spinal cord injury.

REVB: Topline Results About to Be Released

Revelation Biosciences is a life sciences company whose development of immunologic-based therapies is based on the well-established biology of phosphorylated hexaacyl disaccharide (PHAD) and its effect on the innate immune system.
The company announced that enrollment in the Phase 1b study of Gemini in CKD patients will be completed this month and top line results will follow shortly.
Investors should take a look at REVB before the positive results start coming in.

MDAI: DeepView De Novo Submission

Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.

What Do Investors See in Sleepy Transcat?

By J Capital Research

Transcat (NASDAQ: TRNS) is a roll-up of companies that serve the pharmaceutical, aerospace, utilities, oilfield, and other industries with measurement equipment, calibration services, and sales.
TRNS sells and rents equipment and maintains a fleet of vans that it dispatches to client premises to adjust their measuring equipment.
Listed since 1972, the company has never paid a dividend and has no plans to do so.

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Jul 10

Daily Brief ECM: [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy
Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well
MMC Port Holdings Berhad Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Zijin Gold Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Figma Inc (FIG): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Software IPO
Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy

By Travis Lundy

After the close today, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) announced that large holder (and original PE owner) KKR HKE Investment LP would sell down 30mm shares or 12.88% of shares out.
This is not expected, but also not unexpected – it’s exactly a year since the first selldown. There is a decent-sized short position, and it isn’t a huge offering.
This changes two aspects of the future supply/demand balance. Both are important for how this trades in coming months.

Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s (KE) stock.
KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

MMC Port Holdings Berhad Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

MMC Port Holdings Berhad (MMC) is looking to raise about US$1.5bn in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The deal will be run by CIMB, Maybank, RHB, and UBS.
MMC is Malaysia’s largest container port operator and the country’s leading container hub for transshipment and gateway cargo, according to Drewry.
MMC operates five sea ports and a solid product jetty terminal and conducts ship-to-ship transfer (STS) services at an offshore port.

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$2.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and CITIC.
It is a leading gold mining company formed by combining all the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
It held interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.

Figma Inc (FIG): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Software IPO

By IPO Boutique

Figma (FIG US) filed for an IPO on the NYSE on July 1st for a debut later this month.
Their revenue was $749.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing 48% year-over-year growth.
Adobe’s acquisition of Figma collapsed in December 2023 after regulatory hurdles paving the way for this IPO.

Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The big gap between the revenue proportion of the two business lines indicates that there’s little synergistic effect, thus further delaying the formation of the “medicine and makeup complementary ecosystem”.
The weakness in R&D has led to a low overlap in the demands of existing products among the customer groups,making it impossible to match the medical demand through self R&D.
The business model of Dermavon is sales-driven rather than R&D-driven. There are concerns on the Company’s pipeline quality. Dermavon has not proved its sustainable profitability. Valuation should be lower peers.

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Jul 10

Daily Brief China: Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Oneconnect Financial Technology, Zijin Gold, Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery, Meituan, Nameson Holdings, Greentown China, Dermavon Holdings, Iron Ore and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Precondition Satisfied for a Below Net Cash Offer
Zijin Gold Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): Are We or the Market Wrong?
Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great
Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) FY25 Concall And Results: Yield At 14% Following Weak Season
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook
[IO Fundamentals 2025/27] Industrial Cleanup, Trade Tensions, and Diverging Inventory Data

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

By David Blennerhassett

Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for Jilin Bank (6122 HK), as discussed in Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice
This follows a similar bailout of Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK) in early 2024, as detailed in Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.
Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Precondition Satisfied for a Below Net Cash Offer

The precondition for Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s scheme offer from Ping An is satisfied. The offer is HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS). The offer price is final.
Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) is hoping that a dire 1Q25 and letters of support will nudge minorities to accept an offer that values OneConnect below net cash.
The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the vote is far from a done deal. Tread carefully.

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is looking to raise up to US$2.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and CITIC.
It is a leading gold mining company formed by combining all the gold mines of Zijin Mining, located outside of China.
It held interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): Are We or the Market Wrong?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (6168 HK) has an impressive debut, but it is currently expensive, at 4.33x PEG with just a 3-year EPS CAGR of 4.7%.
It is overpriced by ROE vs. P/B, given it stands higher than the best-fit line. Its inferior market position in the industry makes it deserve to trade below.
At 20% discount to Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), it should value at HK$27.80. Even at par, it still implies an 8.5% downside.

Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

As per news reports, Prosus NV (PRX NA) could look to sell some/all of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake, worth around US$4bn
Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.
In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.

Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) FY25 Concall And Results: Yield At 14% Following Weak Season

By Sameer Taneja

Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) reported FY25 revenue/net profit declines of 0.6%/5.3% YoY, respectively, primarily driven by a margin contraction of approximately 40 basis points.
The company declared a 1.5-cent final dividend (total dividend 11.3 cents/share), maintaining a 75% payout ratio, resulting in a 14% yield on the current share price.
The stock trades at a 5.5x FY26e PE with a 3x EV-EBITDA and a 14% dividend yield, assuming the company can maintain flat earnings for FY26.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Nissan Motor, Continuum Green
UST yields rose slightly yesterday, with yields up for a fifth straight day. There were no apparent catalysts, albeit the move was in line with a broader sell-off in European and Japanese government bonds.
The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 3.89%, while that on the 10Y UST advanced 2 bps to 4.40%. Equities were little changed near all-time highs, amid renewed tariff concerns. US President Donald Trump has told reporters at a White House meeting that he plans to announce a 50% tariff on copper imports.

Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The big gap between the revenue proportion of the two business lines indicates that there’s little synergistic effect, thus further delaying the formation of the “medicine and makeup complementary ecosystem”.
The weakness in R&D has led to a low overlap in the demands of existing products among the customer groups,making it impossible to match the medical demand through self R&D.
The business model of Dermavon is sales-driven rather than R&D-driven. There are concerns on the Company’s pipeline quality. Dermavon has not proved its sustainable profitability. Valuation should be lower peers.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/27] Industrial Cleanup, Trade Tensions, and Diverging Inventory Data

By Umang Agrawal

Beijing’s push to cut inefficient capacity may support steel margins and create a steady floor for iron ore prices.
Malaysia’s anti-dumping tariffs of 3.86-57.90% target Chinese steel exports, posing limited short-term impact but signalling broader risks to China’s iron ore demand over time.
Portside inventories may continue rising as iron ore arrivals increase and weak pig iron output slows cargo pick-up across Chinese ports.

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Jul 10

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Tops $4 Trillion and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Tops $4 Trillion
Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Start Higher as Markets Look past Tariff Confusions
Q1FY26 Banking Sector Report: How Repo Rate Cuts Are Reshaping the Sector?
Cerabyte. Forever Data Storage At A Fraction Of Current Costs?
Thematic Report on the Coffee Price Rollercoaster: Implications for India’s FMCG & Processing Sector
The Overnight Report: Copper & Pharma Fright
Monday Delight: 07/07/25
Consumer Products Monthly WTR Consumer Index Lags S&P 600 in 2Q
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on CRC
US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – June 2025

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Tops $4 Trillion

By Mark Chadwick

Nasdaq rose 0.9% to a record 20,611, led by Nvidia’s 1.6% gain and brief $4 trillion valuation milestone
President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, citing Brazil’s treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, escalating trade tensions ahead of the August 1 tariff implementation deadline.
Oasis Management, a Hong Kong activist fund, acquired a 5.19% stake in Casio for 15 billion yen, aiming to enhance shareholder value

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Start Higher as Markets Look past Tariff Confusions

By Andrew Jackson

KKR to sell a further 12.9% stake of Kokusai Elec, which sets the stage for big upside once dust settles.
Home builders surging with mortgage applications at the highest levels since early 2023.
Renewables up with AES and Bloom Energy posting big gains and JP names recently outperforming.

Q1FY26 Banking Sector Report: How Repo Rate Cuts Are Reshaping the Sector?

Despite a 100-bps rate cut by RBI, banks face margin pressure as lending rates fall faster than deposit repricing.
Credit growth has slowed sharply, while deposit growth is improving unevenly – tightening liquidity conditions, especially for private banks and SFBs.
Valuations remain attractive despite near-term earnings stress, supported by stable asset quality, treasury gains, and long-term confidence in sector fundamentals.

Cerabyte. Forever Data Storage At A Fraction Of Current Costs?

By William Keating

Cerabyte has a stated vision of achieving $1 per petabyte per month, a cost reduction of 1000x within the next two decades. That’s a bold vision.
Magnetic tape storage continues to play a crucial role in data centers and its technology continues to advance with the latest LTO-10 cassette announced by Fujifilm in June 2025
Microsoft’s Project Silica, launched in 2019, appears to take a very similar approach albeit there are as yet no stated plans for commercialisation.

Thematic Report on the Coffee Price Rollercoaster: Implications for India’s FMCG & Processing Sector

Since 2021, coffee prices have surged up to 300%, driven by supply disruptions in major producers like Brazil and Vietnam. Recent price corrections provides relief still volatility remains high.
The price fluctuations directly affect Indian coffee processors, with increased working capital requirements and lower PAT margin. Stabilizing prices can improve profitability and working capital cycles.
FMCG giants like Nestle and Tata Consumer Products faced margin pressures due to volatile coffee prices. While recent declines provide relief, continued price uncertainty requires adaptive strategies for cost management.

The Overnight Report: Copper & Pharma Fright

By FNArena

The RBA threw a spanner in the markets’ almost universally anticipated -25bps rate cut, but both ASX200 and the AUD recovered to the previous day’s levels.
The RBA will now cut in August, right?
After a muted overnight session, with more Trump tariff rumblings on copper and pharmaceuticals, the ASX200 futures suggest a slightly softer start to Wednesday.

Monday Delight: 07/07/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Consumer Products Monthly WTR Consumer Index Lags S&P 600 in 2Q

By Water Tower Research

The WTR Consumer Stock Index trailed the Small Cap S&P 600 in 2Q, declining 2.4% versus the 1.1% gain in the broader index.
The underperformance of our index was mostly due to a larger decline in prospective earnings, coupled with a lesser expansion in its prospective P/E ratio.
Our index saw prospective earnings decline 7.2% in 2Q versus a 5.0% decline in the S&P 600, while its prospective P/E ratio expanded 0.8x in 2Q to 15.7x versus the 0.9x expansion to 15.3x in the S&P 600.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on CRC

By Water Tower Research

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.5%).
Energy Technology (13.9% of the index) was up 6.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (49.3% of the index) was up 2.7%, ClimateTech Mining was down 10.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.9% of the index) was up 0.9%.
Top 10 Performers: HCNWF, GWH, RUN, FLNC, LIS, STEM, FLUX, GRB, NRGV, AMTX

US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – June 2025

By Garvit Bhandari

The current EV charging infrastructure in the US remains inadequate and needs to grow rapidly to meet future demand.
According to The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), U.S. will need 1.0 million Level 2 and 182,000 DC Fast charging points by 2030 to support the charging of electric vehicles.
Based on the current growth rates, U.S. is likely to fall short of these numbers by 2030. The pace of growth needs to pick up rapidly.

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Jul 10

Daily Brief Japan: Kokusai Electric , Toyota Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy
Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger
Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well
Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy

By Travis Lundy

After the close today, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) announced that large holder (and original PE owner) KKR HKE Investment LP would sell down 30mm shares or 12.88% of shares out.
This is not expected, but also not unexpected – it’s exactly a year since the first selldown. There is a decent-sized short position, and it isn’t a huge offering.
This changes two aspects of the future supply/demand balance. Both are important for how this trades in coming months.

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan is susceptible to a bump if there is enough vocal opposition from minorities.
In July, two public pieces have sharply criticised the offer – the Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA) on 2 July and Sloane Robinson Investment Management on 8 July.
Some of the criticism has merit, while others do not. Nevertheless, these letters are the first and right step to agitate for terms that are closer to TICO’s intrinsic value.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

By Brian Freitas

KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).
Applied Materials (AMAT US) will become the largest shareholder in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the placement.
There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the Nikkei 225 Index.

Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s (KE) stock.
KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit

By Rahul Jain

On July 9, 2025, KKR announced it would reduce its stake in Kokusai Electric from ~23.5% to ~10.6% through a ¥90 billion overnight secondary offering.
KKR’s move reflects a classic private equity monetization strategy following operational improvements and a successful IPO.
While the sale caused a modest short-term share reaction (~2% dip), such liquidity events rarely impact long-term value—fundamentals remain the key driver for patient investors.

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Jul 10

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Nissan Motor, Continuum Green
UST yields rose slightly yesterday, with yields up for a fifth straight day. There were no apparent catalysts, albeit the move was in line with a broader sell-off in European and Japanese government bonds.
The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 3.89%, while that on the 10Y UST advanced 2 bps to 4.40%. Equities were little changed near all-time highs, amid renewed tariff concerns. US President Donald Trump has told reporters at a White House meeting that he plans to announce a 50% tariff on copper imports.

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Jul 10

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace
Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger
Treasury Cancellation Bill Latest: 10% Holding Cap for Existing Ones — Targets Screened in Excel
Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?
OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Precondition Satisfied for a Below Net Cash Offer
Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great
Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) Capital Return is Better Than Expected

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan is susceptible to a bump if there is enough vocal opposition from minorities.
In July, two public pieces have sharply criticised the offer – the Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA) on 2 July and Sloane Robinson Investment Management on 8 July.
Some of the criticism has merit, while others do not. Nevertheless, these letters are the first and right step to agitate for terms that are closer to TICO’s intrinsic value.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

By Brian Freitas

KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).
Applied Materials (AMAT US) will become the largest shareholder in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the placement.
There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the Nikkei 225 Index.

Treasury Cancellation Bill Latest: 10% Holding Cap for Existing Ones — Targets Screened in Excel

By Sanghyun Park

Market focus is now on retroactive impact — existing treasury holdings above 10% must be canceled within a year, flipping earlier expectations that they’d be exempt.
DP’s fast-tracking the bill, targeting a September vote and mid-October go-live, with this Commercial Act tweak topping their legislative priority list.
Excel below shows 230 stocks above the 10% treasury cap, including 35 large-caps — prime candidates for momentum trades as the mandatory buyback burn bill gains steam.

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

By David Blennerhassett

Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for Jilin Bank (6122 HK), as discussed in Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice
This follows a similar bailout of Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK) in early 2024, as detailed in Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.
Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Precondition Satisfied for a Below Net Cash Offer

The precondition for Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s scheme offer from Ping An is satisfied. The offer is HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS). The offer price is final.
Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) is hoping that a dire 1Q25 and letters of support will nudge minorities to accept an offer that values OneConnect below net cash.
The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the vote is far from a done deal. Tread carefully.

Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

As per news reports, Prosus NV (PRX NA) could look to sell some/all of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake, worth around US$4bn
Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.
In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.

Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) Capital Return is Better Than Expected

By Richard Howe

Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) announced a better than expected capital return program following the closing of the Apollo transaction.
Brightstar will pay a $3 special dividend (7/14 ex date) and buy back $500MM of stock.
Brightstar is in a quiet period, but I would expect it to aggressively buy back stock following its earnings report on July 29, 2025.

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Jul 10

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit
Travel Food Services IPO: Capitalizing on the Global Airport F&B Boom
A Pair Trade Between SM Entertainment (Long) Vs HYBE (Short)
Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak
Meta Just Bought into EssilorLuxottica.
Arena REIT (ARF AU) Vs National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Statistical Arbitrage in Two Australian REITs
Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): Are We or the Market Wrong?
Lifestyle Communities Ltd – The Overnight Report: Nvidia Tops US$4trn
TechChain Insights: Zhen Ding – How Next Generation PCBs/Substrates Will Be Critical for AI Devices
Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) FY25 Concall And Results: Yield At 14% Following Weak Season

Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit

By Rahul Jain

On July 9, 2025, KKR announced it would reduce its stake in Kokusai Electric from ~23.5% to ~10.6% through a ¥90 billion overnight secondary offering.
KKR’s move reflects a classic private equity monetization strategy following operational improvements and a successful IPO.
While the sale caused a modest short-term share reaction (~2% dip), such liquidity events rarely impact long-term value—fundamentals remain the key driver for patient investors.

Travel Food Services IPO: Capitalizing on the Global Airport F&B Boom