Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Spotify reported its first-quarter 2025 results with decent metrics, yet the numbers failed to satisfy market expectations, leading to a sharp drop in its stock price.
Despite posting a 12% year-over-year increase in premium subscribers to 268 million—exceeding analyst estimates of 265 million—Spotify shares fell 8.7% in early trading to $545.77.
The company also registered 678 million monthly active users, up 10%, broadly meeting expectations.

China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump’s Executive Order, Pharmacy’s Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Trump announced actions to reduce regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing, with the core intention to open regulatory “green light” for manufacturing in US, which will change the industry pattern.
With the promotion of VBP and the implementation of medical insurance price comparison system, there’s a trend of accelerated pharmacies closures. The entire pharmacy industry will face performance headwinds.
BeiGene’s BRUKINSA recorded negative QoQ growth in 25Q1, which seems below expectations. However, this is temporary headwinds, since the 2025 full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged. Bottom-line valuation is US$24.5-26.5 billion.

Is YETI The Next Big Buyout? Skechers Deal Sparks Buzz In Wall Street Circles

YETI Holdings reported its first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, revealing mixed results.
During this period, the company focused on three main areas: accelerating product innovation, transforming supply chain logistics to minimize exposure to China, and enforcing operational discipline to maintain a strong financial position.
Despite a generally positive performance in some aspects, notable challenges were encountered, impacting the company’s financial outlook for the year.

Nihon Denkei (9908 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Nihon Denkei’s FY03/25 consolidated sales grew 11.7% YoY, with a gross profit of JPY16.9bn and operating profit up 6.9% YoY.
The company announced FY03/26 earnings forecast with sales at JPY124.0bn, operating profit at JPY4.5bn, and EPS of JPY263.21.
INNOVATION2030 Ver.2.0 aims for growth by expanding into growth markets and enhancing global business amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Mega Merger in the Making? What a Shell–BP Deal Could Mean for Global Energy

In May 2025, the energy sector is abuzz with speculation that Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP.
This comes amid a backdrop of declining oil prices, which have recently hit a four-year low due to increased OPEC+ production and global demand uncertainties.
Shell, with a market capitalization of approximately £149 billion, is nearly twice the size of BP, whose shares have fallen nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting investor concerns over its strategic direction and financial health.

Pfizer’s $15 Billion War Chest: What Will They Buy After the Danuglipron Failure?

Pfizer recently reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, providing an overall positive snapshot of its performance within a challenging market environment.
Revenue was reported at $13.7 billion, marking a 6% operational decline largely driven by lower Paxlovid sales, partly reflecting a one-time Paxlovid revenue credit from the prior year.
Despite this, some of its core products such as the Vyndaqel family, Nurtec, and Padcev demonstrated strong growth, reinforcing the company’s focus on prioritizing key growth drivers.

Altria Group: An Insight Into Recent Macroeconomic Pressures & Its Consumer Pricing Strategy!

Altria Group reported its first-quarter performance for 2025 amidst varying market dynamics.
The company, known primarily for its tobacco products, emphasized robust operations in its Smokeable Products and Oral Tobacco Products segments.
Altria CEO Billy Gifford highlighted that the core traditional tobacco business remained profitable in a challenging environment, and the company’s flagship brand, Marlboro, continued to show resilience despite economic pressures.

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May 11

Daily Brief Macro: The Coming Global Trade Re-Ordering and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

The Coming Global Trade Re-Ordering

The Coming Global Trade Re-Ordering

By Priyanka Kishore

China’s exports to the US dropped $7bn in April from March as the impact of tariffs kicked in.
But its overall exports were barely impacted due to a jump in shipments to the rest of the world.
This should ring a few alarm bells as to how the world will absorb the coming flood of Chinese imports, given Beijing’s struggles to lift consumption at home.

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May 11

Most Read: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Laopu Gold, S&P/ASX 200, East Buy Holding , Indusind Bank, Tsuruha Holdings, Shionogi & Co, Shanghai Electric Group Company and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light
ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength
East Buy Holdings (1797 HK): Potential KWEB Deletion in June
SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Trent, Bharat Electronics Could Replace IndusInd Bank, Nestle
[Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio
CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case
HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience
Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Torii Acquisition to Broaden Portfolio; High R&D to Dent Profitability
A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for CATL H-shares with a discount of up to 10% to CATL (300750 CH) and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.
The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.
Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): US$300m Primary Placement & Index Inclusion Green Light

Full circulation implementation at the beginning of April derailed Laopu Gold (6181 HK)‘s chances of global index inclusion in May.
The company has now launched a US$300m primary placement that will significantly improve chances of inclusion in the same global index in August.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) will also be added to another global index in September, so there are a few index inclusions likely for the stock this year.

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

By Nico Rosti

Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

East Buy Holdings (1797 HK): Potential KWEB Deletion in June

East Buy Holding (1797 HK) was deleted from the Hang Seng TECH Index in March and could be deleted from the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB US) in June.
There are other ETFs that track the same index (and similar indices), and those trackers will be selling East Buy Holding (1797 HK) too.
There has been some short covering in the stock recently, but short interest is pretty high as a percentage of float. Watch out for short covering that offsets passive selling.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Trent, Bharat Electronics Could Replace IndusInd Bank, Nestle

With the review period complete, there could be two changes for the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the June rebalance.
Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) and Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) are high probability inclusions while Indusind Bank (IIB IN) and Nestle India (NEST IN) are high probability deletions.
Indusind Bank (IIB IN) is also a potential NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) deletion in September and there will be continued pressure on the stock.

[Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio

Large Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) investor Orbis Investments last month said they were against the Tsuruha/Welcia merger ratio. They wanted a cash takeover above Aeon’s Oasis buy price from 2024.
Influential shareholder proxy advisor ISS has apparently come out recommending shareholders vote against. That’s a start, but the hard work needs to be Orbis talking to domestic passive managers.
Getting 90% of foreign active managers as of end-February would make it a very close-run thing, but Orbis really needs some more to show up against the ratio.

CATL H Share Listing: PHIP Reinforces the Investment Case

By Arun George

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, has filed its PHIP for an H-Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
I previously discussed the H Share listing in CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case and CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views.
In this note, I examine the latest results and developments outlined in the PHIP. Overall, the PHIP reinforces my positive view.

HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience

By Phil Rush

The BoE and Fed decisions disappointed dovish hopes for action by sensibly waiting to see some signs that easing is appropriate. Caution reduces the risk of a policy mistake.
Inflation in the US, plus unemployment and GDP in the UK, are the scheduled economic highlights for us next week. The UK data may prove more resilient than feared again.
An absence of bad news can allow the good vibes to keep flowing from recent resilient data and trade policy progress, but investors seeking to sleep easy may wish to hedge.

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Torii Acquisition to Broaden Portfolio; High R&D to Dent Profitability

By Tina Banerjee

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) is acquiring Torii Pharmaceutical, as well as the pharmaceutical business of Japan Tobacco and U.S. group company Akros Pharma (sub-subsidiary of Japan Tobacco) for ~¥160B.
With minimum overlap in focus areas, Shionogi believes that the transaction will create a leading company that delivers innovative pharmaceuticals. However, R&D expenses of the combined company will remain elevated.
Considering the promising pipeline, we are hopeful on the long-term growth prospect of the combined company. Shionogi is scheduled to announce FY25 result on May 12.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks.
All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don’t expect much.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

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May 11

Daily Brief South Korea: Shin Young Wacoal and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Korea Small Cap Gem #33: Shinyoung Wacoal [Real Estate Value Is More Than 5x Market Cap]

Korea Small Cap Gem #33: Shinyoung Wacoal [Real Estate Value Is More Than 5x Market Cap]

By Douglas Kim

A core investment thesis of Shinyoung Wacoal is that its market cap is 94 billion won but its real estate properties in Seoul/Daejeon account for more than 500 billion won.
Shinyoung Wacoal’s net cash as a percentage of market cap is 99%. If the real estate is revalued to market values, it would be trading at P/B of only 0.1x.
Shin Young Wacoal (005800 KS) is one of the largest companies in Korea that specializes in women’s underwear.

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May 11

Daily Brief United States: Global Payments, YETI Holdings Inc, Pfizer Inc, Teradyne Inc, Altria Group, S&P Global , F5 Networks Inc, E2open Parent Holdings Inc, Coca Cola Co, Domino’s Pizza and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Financial Factsheet – Growth, Valuation and Peer Comps
Is YETI The Next Big Buyout? Skechers Deal Sparks Buzz In Wall Street Circles
Pfizer’s $15 Billion War Chest: What Will They Buy After the Danuglipron Failure?
Teradyne’s Robot Revolution & AI Synergy Make It a Must-Buy for 2025!
Altria Group: An Insight Into Recent Macroeconomic Pressures & Its Consumer Pricing Strategy!
S&P Global: 7 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!
F5 Networks Bets Big on AI & Cybersecurity—Can Its New AI Gateway Expand Its Market Share?
E2open Surging Amid Takeover Chatter—Here’s Why It’s on Wisetech’s Radar
The Coca-Cola Company: An Insight Into Its Revenue Growth Management (RGM) & Margin Expansion!
Domino’s Pizza Defies the Economic Slump with a Bold New Strategy – Here’s What You Missed!

Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Financial Factsheet – Growth, Valuation and Peer Comps

By Garvit Bhandari

The Company posted strong Q1 2205 results with adjusted EPS (incl. share-based comp) growing 9.3% YOY, adjusted operating margin expanding 70 bps YOY. Excl. share-based comp, adj. EPS was $2.82.
The Company expects margin expansion and double digit adjusted EPS growth for FY 2025.
Sale of Issuer Solutions segment and acqusition of Worldpay will simplify operations and enhance growth. GPN trades at a significant discount to the peer group average.

Is YETI The Next Big Buyout? Skechers Deal Sparks Buzz In Wall Street Circles

YETI Holdings reported its first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, revealing mixed results.
During this period, the company focused on three main areas: accelerating product innovation, transforming supply chain logistics to minimize exposure to China, and enforcing operational discipline to maintain a strong financial position.
Despite a generally positive performance in some aspects, notable challenges were encountered, impacting the company’s financial outlook for the year.

Pfizer’s $15 Billion War Chest: What Will They Buy After the Danuglipron Failure?

Pfizer recently reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, providing an overall positive snapshot of its performance within a challenging market environment.
Revenue was reported at $13.7 billion, marking a 6% operational decline largely driven by lower Paxlovid sales, partly reflecting a one-time Paxlovid revenue credit from the prior year.
Despite this, some of its core products such as the Vyndaqel family, Nurtec, and Padcev demonstrated strong growth, reinforcing the company’s focus on prioritizing key growth drivers.

Teradyne’s Robot Revolution & AI Synergy Make It a Must-Buy for 2025!

Teradyne, Inc. reported a mixed financial performance for the first quarter of 2025.
The company achieved revenue of $686 million, which was towards the high end of their guidance, and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.75, surpassing their guidance of $0.68.
The gross margin of 60.6% also exceeded expectations due to a favorable product mix.

Altria Group: An Insight Into Recent Macroeconomic Pressures & Its Consumer Pricing Strategy!

Altria Group reported its first-quarter performance for 2025 amidst varying market dynamics.
The company, known primarily for its tobacco products, emphasized robust operations in its Smokeable Products and Oral Tobacco Products segments.
Altria CEO Billy Gifford highlighted that the core traditional tobacco business remained profitable in a challenging environment, and the company’s flagship brand, Marlboro, continued to show resilience despite economic pressures.

S&P Global: 7 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

S&P Global Inc., a leader in financial information and analytics, presented a robust first quarter in 2025.
The company showcased broad-based growth across all five of its divisions, marking an 8% annual increase in revenue, driven by a 7% rise in subscription products.
Concurrently, S&P Global reported a 240 basis point expansion in year-over-year margins, along with a 9% jump in adjusted diluted EPS.

F5 Networks Bets Big on AI & Cybersecurity—Can Its New AI Gateway Expand Its Market Share?

F5 Inc. reported robust financial performance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, highlighted by 7% total revenue growth year-over-year.
This growth was largely driven by a substantial 12% increase in product revenue.
Notably, system revenue surged 27%, underscoring strong demand as customers continued to refresh aging hardware and modernize data centers.

E2open Surging Amid Takeover Chatter—Here’s Why It’s on Wisetech’s Radar

E2open’s latest earnings presentation paints a nuanced picture of their fiscal performance and outlook.
In the fiscal fourth quarter and overall for 2025, E2open achieved subscription revenues of $133 million, ultimately landing within their guidance, yet the company experienced a slight year-over-year decline of 1%.
Constant currency adjustments reflected a 0.5% marginal improvement nearing flat growth.

The Coca-Cola Company: An Insight Into Its Revenue Growth Management (RGM) & Margin Expansion!

The Coca-Cola Company’s first quarter in 2025 demonstrated its adaptation to the dynamic global environment, producing significant growth in organic revenues and operating margins.
The company reported a 2% increase in volume growth and robust organic revenue growth, aligning with their longstanding growth algorithm.
Coca-Cola maintained a resilient posture amidst challenges such as macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, achieving these results through enhanced capabilities, improved local execution, and effective alignment across systems.

Domino’s Pizza Defies the Economic Slump with a Bold New Strategy – Here’s What You Missed!

Domino’s Pizza delivered a mixed performance in the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating resilience through strategic innovation and operational discipline amid a difficult macroeconomic environment.
The company reported earnings per share of $4.33, up 21% year over year and ahead of Wall Street expectations, driven primarily by increased franchise advertising revenue, supply chain income from franchisee purchases, and international royalty and fee growth.
However, total revenue came in at $1.11 billion, below the analyst estimate of $1.13 billion.

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May 11

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / INDO-PAK CONFLICT SPURS LOCAL RISK-PREMIA HIGHER. IV @ +18.0%

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / INDO-PAK CONFLICT SPURS LOCAL RISK-PREMIA HIGHER. IV @ +18.0%

By Sankalp Singh

Onset of IND-PAK military conflict spurs IVs higher to +18% levels. Vol Regime model holds in “High & Up” state.
Skew extends to extreme levels, RRs trades from -5.0 to -7.0 vols. Vol Term-structure is now flat in the front-end & in Backwardation at the back-end of the curve.
Tactical Implications: Avoid Risk-premia harvesting as “High & Up” vol-state prevails.

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May 11

Daily Brief Japan: Nissin Corp, Imagica Robot Holdings, Baudroie, Nihon Denkei, Kissei Pharmaceutical, NTT Data Corp, Torii Pharmaceutical, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Bloomberg Reports Bain MBO on Nissin (9066) May Come Monday – The Implied Price Is Light
Imagica (6879 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY795
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2025)
Nihon Denkei (9908 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP): Steady FY25, Licensing Fees To Drag FY26, Margins To Stay Strong
Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data Corp, Zeekr, Shibaura Electronics, Swire Pacific/ThaiNamthip
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Torii Pharma, Mitsu. Shokuhin, Domain, Gold Road, Canvest, Shibaura, Tsuruha
With Transitional Measures Ending, Improving the Quality of Existing Listed Companies Will Be Key

[Japan M&A] Bloomberg Reports Bain MBO on Nissin (9066) May Come Monday – The Implied Price Is Light

Last year, Nissin Corp (9066 JP) started race-walking the good governance walk. The day they released earnings they announced crossholding sales and an overnight 23.61% ToSTNeT-3 Buyback (executed successfully).
They also expected 19% Net Income Growth (to go with accretion), and in November, nearly doubled their dividend on new payout policy (minimum 4% DOE).
Now, Bloomberg reports they are considering going private via a Bain MBO at ¥100bn+ (or a 30% premium).

Imagica (6879 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY795

By Arun George

Imagica Robot Holdings (6879 JP) has recommended a MBO tender offer from Shunjiro Nagase (President) at JPY795 per share, a 43.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
Irrevocables (55.40% ownership ratio) pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from 12 May to 20 June (30 business days).

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
TOPIX Inclusions of Baudroie (4413 JP) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) took place at the end of April 2025.
Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) continues to be in our watchlist as a potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate.

Nihon Denkei (9908 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Nihon Denkei’s FY03/25 consolidated sales grew 11.7% YoY, with a gross profit of JPY16.9bn and operating profit up 6.9% YoY.
The company announced FY03/26 earnings forecast with sales at JPY124.0bn, operating profit at JPY4.5bn, and EPS of JPY263.21.
INNOVATION2030 Ver.2.0 aims for growth by expanding into growth markets and enhancing global business amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP): Steady FY25, Licensing Fees To Drag FY26, Margins To Stay Strong

By Tina Banerjee

Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP) reported 16.9% YoY jump in revenue during FY25 driven by Beova and Tavneos despite price revision pressures and generic competition.
The company has issued FY26 guidance of revenue rising 3.6%, with pharmaceuticals segment remaining flat dragged by lower overseas licensing fees.
The only trigger point at this moment happens to be the recent licensing deals signed by the company with various players gives it an opportunity to expand offerings and market.

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data Corp, Zeekr, Shibaura Electronics, Swire Pacific/ThaiNamthip

By David Blennerhassett

We have a deal in NTT Data Corp (9613 JP). It’s big, liquid, and a great place to hide for long-only investors who are bearish the market.
Li Shufu-backed Geely Auto (175 HK) offers an ordinary 13.6% premium for 65.7-held Zeekr (ZK US). Li/Geely have the necessary votes to force a privatisation. But still might bump terms.
Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has now strongly overbid Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s strong overbid of Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s initial hostile offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Torii Pharma, Mitsu. Shokuhin, Domain, Gold Road, Canvest, Shibaura, Tsuruha

By David Blennerhassett

I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Five new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), Zeekr (ZK US), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP), and Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP).

With Transitional Measures Ending, Improving the Quality of Existing Listed Companies Will Be Key

By Aki Matsumoto

There are two possible ways to improve the quality of the TSE: one is to exit the market and the other is to improve quality in existing companies.
While few companies are still exiting through de-listing, fewer companies will migrate to other markets going forward, so the quality of existing listed companies must be improved.
Two years after the “TSE’s request,” the number of companies with P/Bs of less than 1x has not yet noticeably decreased, indicating that quality improvement is still a ways off.

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May 11

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Shanghai Electric Group Company, BeiGene , SHEIN and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week
A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha
China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump’s Executive Order, Pharmacy’s Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok
SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 May 2025); Tech Selling in a Quiet Week

Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous 2021Q1 record by >HK$100bn. Five weeks into Q2 we are at HK$175bn.
3 weeks ago saw SOEs sold quite heavily in somewhat weaker volume. last week it was tech. This week it was again tech sold (ETFs bought) suggesting risk-off.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks.
All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don’t expect much.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump’s Executive Order, Pharmacy’s Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Trump announced actions to reduce regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing, with the core intention to open regulatory “green light” for manufacturing in US, which will change the industry pattern.
With the promotion of VBP and the implementation of medical insurance price comparison system, there’s a trend of accelerated pharmacies closures. The entire pharmacy industry will face performance headwinds.
BeiGene’s BRUKINSA recorded negative QoQ growth in 25Q1, which seems below expectations. However, this is temporary headwinds, since the 2025 full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged. Bottom-line valuation is US$24.5-26.5 billion.

SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

By Daniel Hellberg

Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023
For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged
But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns

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May 11

Daily Brief Industrials: Shanghai Electric Group Company, Nissin Corp, Paccar Inc, United Parcel Service Cl B, Woodward Inc, Honeywell International, Xylem Inc, NV5 Global and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha
[Japan M&A] Bloomberg Reports Bain MBO on Nissin (9066) May Come Monday – The Implied Price Is Light
PACCAR: Tariff Management Strategy to Maintain Stability & Upsurge Revenue!
United Parcel Service (UPS): Recent Shift to Robotics & Automation Driving Our Bullishness!
Woodward Misses a Beat But Bets Big on Naval Dominance With MicroNet Contracts!
Honeywell’s $500M Tariff Hit? No Problem—Stock Jumps as Split Plan Gains Steam!
Xylem Looking To Supercharge Growth With Targeted Acquisitions—Is The Vacom Deal Just The Start?
NV5 Global on the Radar: Why Acuren and Others Are Eyeing This Engineering Giant

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks.
All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don’t expect much.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

[Japan M&A] Bloomberg Reports Bain MBO on Nissin (9066) May Come Monday – The Implied Price Is Light

Last year, Nissin Corp (9066 JP) started race-walking the good governance walk. The day they released earnings they announced crossholding sales and an overnight 23.61% ToSTNeT-3 Buyback (executed successfully).
They also expected 19% Net Income Growth (to go with accretion), and in November, nearly doubled their dividend on new payout policy (minimum 4% DOE).
Now, Bloomberg reports they are considering going private via a Bain MBO at ¥100bn+ (or a 30% premium).

PACCAR: Tariff Management Strategy to Maintain Stability & Upsurge Revenue!

PACCAR Inc.’s recent earnings for the first quarter of 2025 presented a nuanced view of the company’s financial performance and strategic positioning amid complex global economic conditions.
The company reported revenues of $7.4 billion and an adjusted net income of $770 million, indicating solid financial health.
PACCAR Parts achieved record quarterly revenues of $1.7 billion, with pretax income of $427 million, a testament to their successful expansion and market demand for their products.

United Parcel Service (UPS): Recent Shift to Robotics & Automation Driving Our Bullishness!

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results amidst a complex global trade landscape and strategic shifts in its business model.
The company’s consolidated revenue for the quarter stood at $21.5 billion, a slight decrease of 0.7% from the previous year, aligning with its forecasts.
Meanwhile, operating profit rose by 0.9% to $1.8 billion, reflected in an operating margin improvement to 8.2%.

Woodward Misses a Beat But Bets Big on Naval Dominance With MicroNet Contracts!

Woodward, Inc. delivered a promising performance in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with net sales rising by 6% year-over-year and adjusted earnings per share increasing by 4%, reflecting steady growth despite challenges, notably from decreased volumes in China’s on-highway market.
Excluding the China on-highway impacts, the company posted a 12% increase in revenue and a significant 22% rise in operating earnings, showcasing resilience and efficiency in a challenging global environment.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Honeywell’s $500M Tariff Hit? No Problem—Stock Jumps as Split Plan Gains Steam!

Honeywell International Inc. delivered a strong start to fiscal 2025, reporting first-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations and raised guidance despite a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.51 on revenue of $9.8 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $2.21 EPS on $9.6 billion in revenue.
This performance also marked a year-over-year improvement from $2.25 EPS on $9.1 billion in sales.

Xylem Looking To Supercharge Growth With Targeted Acquisitions—Is The Vacom Deal Just The Start?

Xylem Inc. closed the first quarter of 2025 with a performance that surpassed expectations and reaffirmed their guidance for the year.
The company reported a robust revenue increase across all segments, contributing to a 120 basis point rise in EBITDA margin and a double-digit growth in earnings per share (EPS), which hit $1.03, outpacing the guidance midpoint by $0.08.
Maintaining a backlog of $5.1 billion, Xylem showcased resilience in demand with a book-to-bill ratio exceeding one, although orders slightly dipped due to challenging comparisons in key segments.

NV5 Global on the Radar: Why Acuren and Others Are Eyeing This Engineering Giant

NV5 Global, Inc.’s fiscal first quarter 2025 financial results highlight a mixture of strength and challenges.
The company’s stated focus on providing non-discretionary services in essential sectors, such as infrastructure and utilities, serves as a hedge against economic volatility and supply chain issues.
In this quarter, NV5 reported a 10% year-over-year increase in gross revenues, reaching $234 million, and a 10% increase in gross profit to $123.2 million.

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May 11

Daily Brief Financials: Global Payments, NIFTY Index, S&P Global and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Financial Factsheet – Growth, Valuation and Peer Comps
NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / INDO-PAK CONFLICT SPURS LOCAL RISK-PREMIA HIGHER. IV @ +18.0%
S&P Global: 7 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

Global Payments Inc. (GPN) Financial Factsheet – Growth, Valuation and Peer Comps

By Garvit Bhandari

The Company posted strong Q1 2205 results with adjusted EPS (incl. share-based comp) growing 9.3% YOY, adjusted operating margin expanding 70 bps YOY. Excl. share-based comp, adj. EPS was $2.82.
The Company expects margin expansion and double digit adjusted EPS growth for FY 2025.
Sale of Issuer Solutions segment and acqusition of Worldpay will simplify operations and enhance growth. GPN trades at a significant discount to the peer group average.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / INDO-PAK CONFLICT SPURS LOCAL RISK-PREMIA HIGHER. IV @ +18.0%

By Sankalp Singh

Onset of IND-PAK military conflict spurs IVs higher to +18% levels. Vol Regime model holds in “High & Up” state.
Skew extends to extreme levels, RRs trades from -5.0 to -7.0 vols. Vol Term-structure is now flat in the front-end & in Backwardation at the back-end of the curve.
Tactical Implications: Avoid Risk-premia harvesting as “High & Up” vol-state prevails.

S&P Global: 7 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!