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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Korea Zinc, Crude Oil, West China Cement, Wheaton Precious Metals, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Nippon Denko, Crown Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Zinc Announces Cancellation of Its Treasury Shares
  • [ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Wheaton Precious Metals — Records tumbling
  • Cambodian Rubber Production Struggles To Keep Pace With Tire Exports
  • Wheaton Precious Metals — Records tumbling
  • Nippon Denko (5563 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
  • Crown Holdings Battles Tariff Headwinds & Hopes To Win With Strategic Cost Control!


Korea Zinc Announces Cancellation of Its Treasury Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Zinc (010130 KS)’s chairman Choi Yoon-Beom announced that the company will cancel all 2.04 million treasury shares that the company acquired through a tender offer last year.
  • Now the company has finally decided to cancel all of the treasury shares this year, this should have a positive impact on its share price.
  • Korea Zinc announced better than expected earnings in 1Q25. Korea Zinc achieved more than 3.5-fold increase in sales in the strategic minerals sector, including antimony, indium, and bismuth in 1Q25.

[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.
  • The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.
  • Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, Medco Energi
  • The US has unveiled a trade agreement with the UK. The US will maintain a 10% blanket tariff on UK imports, while UK duties on US goods will be reduced to 1.8% from 5.1%. It is unclear how the figures are tabulated.
  • In addition, tariffs on UK autos will be adjusted such that a 10% tariff will apply to the first 100 k vehicle imports, with any additional vehicles facing a 25% rate.

Wheaton Precious Metals — Records tumbling

By Edison Investment Research

Wheaton announced record revenue, earnings and operational cash flows in Q125, posting adjusted net EPS that was 10.5% better than our forecast and at the top of the range of analysts’ expectations. The main reason for the outperformance was an 18,616oz (20.1%) oversale of gold relative to production, which drove a US$40.1m positive variance in revenue, partially offset by an US$8.6m negative variance in costs, US$3.6m lower-than-expected interest income and US$2.3m higher tax to result in a US$23.9m positive variance in earnings. As a result, we have upgraded our FY25 adjusted net EPS forecast by 7.5c per share (3.4%). Note that, at current metals prices, our FY26 EPS estimate rises by 73.0% to US$2.63/share.


Cambodian Rubber Production Struggles To Keep Pace With Tire Exports

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  In Q1 2025, Cambodia exports 59,754 tons of rubber, down 13.8% YoY  
  • Overall rubber production in Q1 2025, 64,080 tons, down 7.9% YoY  
  • Trump tariff, EUDR pose challenge to Cambodian rubber and tire  

Wheaton Precious Metals — Records tumbling

By Edison Investment Research

Wheaton announced record revenue, earnings and operational cash flows in Q125, posting adjusted net EPS that was 10.5% better than our forecast and at the top of the range of analysts’ expectations. The main reason for the outperformance was an 18,616oz (20.1%) oversale of gold relative to production, which drove a US$40.1m positive variance in revenue, partially offset by an US$8.6m negative variance in costs, US$3.6m lower-than-expected interest income and US$2.3m higher tax to result in a US$23.9m positive variance in earnings. As a result, we have upgraded our FY25 adjusted net EPS forecast by 7.5c per share (3.4%). Note that, at current metals prices, our FY26 EPS estimate rises by 73.0% to US$2.63/share.


Nippon Denko (5563 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue for FY12/25 was JPY19.4bn, a 9.4% YoY increase, with operating profit rising 22.6% YoY to JPY1.0bn.
  • The Ferroalloy business experienced a YoY profit decline, while Functional Materials and Incineration Ash Recycling saw profit growth.
  • Nippon Denko forecasts a YoY decrease in revenue and recurring profit for FY12/25, citing manganese ore market downturn.

Crown Holdings Battles Tariff Headwinds & Hopes To Win With Strategic Cost Control!

By Baptista Research

  • Crown Holdings reported a strong first quarter for 2025, outperforming expectations with earnings per share at $1.65, significantly higher than the $0.56 from the prior year.
  • On an adjusted basis, EPS reached $1.67, an increase from $1.02 a year ago.
  • This robust performance was driven by a 3.7% rise in net sales, attributed to gains in global beverage can volumes and North American food can volumes.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hyundai Elevator Co, Kanematsu Corp, Soda Nikka, Nagase & Co Ltd, Nichiban Co Ltd, Carr’s Group PLC, Yamada Consulting Group Co L, Frontier Management Inc, HNI Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (9 to 23 May 2025)
  • Kanematsu Corp (8020 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
  • Soda Nikka (8158 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
  • Nagase & Co Ltd (8012 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
  • Nichiban Co Ltd (4218 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
  • Carr’s Group — UK progressing well, US recovery delayed
  • Yamada Consulting Group Co L (4792 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
  • Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Full Report – April 21, 2025
  • HNI Corporation – Strong 1Q25; Productivity Gains; Strength in Contract


Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (9 to 23 May 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks (9 to 23 May 2025).
  • Our top 10 picks in the past two weeks were up on average 5.0% (from 25 April to 9 May), outperforming KOSPI which was up 1.2% in the same period.
  • Our top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include HD Hyundai, Hyundai Elevator, KT Corp, Shinsegae, Coway, Hanwha Aerospace, F&F Co, SM Entertainment, and SK Inc. 

Kanematsu Corp (8020 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Company revenue reached JPY1.1tn, a 6.6% YoY increase, achieving 95.5% of the full-year forecast.
  • Operating profit decreased 4.1% YoY to JPY42.1bn, with SG&A expenses increasing 8.4% YoY to JPY115.1bn.
  • Profit attributable to owners rose 18.3% YoY to JPY27.5bn, with ROE at 16.5% and ROIC at 7.6%.

Soda Nikka (8158 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased to JPY65.1bn (+1.6% YoY), with operating profit at JPY2.1bn (-4.7% YoY) and net income at JPY2.2bn (+18.6% YoY).
  • FY03/26 forecast anticipates revenue of JPY70.5bn (+8.2% YoY) and operating profit of JPY2.3bn (+11.0% YoY).
  • The company raised FY03/27 financial targets, projecting consolidated net income of JPY2.4bn or more, with ROE at 8%.

Nagase & Co Ltd (8012 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In FY03/25, sales rose 5.0% YoY, with operating profit up 27.6% YoY, aided by yen depreciation.
  • The company achieved 100.5% of sales target, 100.7% of gross profit target, and 107.1% of operating profit target.
  • FY03/25 forecasts assume JPY143.0/USD, with operating profit expected to rise 1.1% YoY to JPY39.5bn.

Nichiban Co Ltd (4218 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • For FY03/25, the company reported revenue of JPY49.5bn (+5.5% YoY) and operating profit of JPY2.6bn (+24.7% YoY).
  • Revenue growth was driven by the healthcare field, price revisions, and increased demand for CARELEAVES™ and ROIHI-TSUBOKO.
  • The company forecasts FY03/26 revenue of JPY51.5bn (+4.1% YoY) and operating profit of JPY3.0bn (+16.0% YoY).

Carr’s Group — UK progressing well, US recovery delayed

By Edison Investment Research

Carr’s Group is now a focused specialist agricultural group. The benefits of the reinvigorated management’s actions are being seen in the UK, providing confidence in the strategy as a specialist branded product animal supplements business. Challenges remain, such as softness in the drought-affected southern US market. With a strong balance sheet, a cash-generative business and growth opportunities in existing and new geographical markets, the group is successfully transitioning from the value realisation of the last few years to a new growth mandate.


Yamada Consulting Group Co L (4792 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY03/25 revenue was JPY22.8bn (+2.6% YoY); operating profit JPY4.1bn (+12.8% YoY); net income JPY2.9bn (+0.7% YoY).
  • Consulting business FY03/25 revenue JPY20.4bn (+17.2% YoY); Investment business revenue JPY2.4bn (-50.0% YoY); gross profit JPY1.2bn (+33.6% YoY).
  • FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY26.0bn (+14.2% YoY); operating profit JPY3.8bn (-8.0% YoY); dividend JPY77.0 per share.

Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Full Report – April 21, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Frontier Management (hereafter referred to as “the Company”) is a consulting firm that operates in the three pillars of management consulting, M&A advisory, and business revitalization services, as well as an investment business that began in 2022.
  • Founded primarily by Mr. Shoichiro Onishi, a former employees of the Industrial Revitalization Corporation of Japan, the Company has expanded its operations through proactive hiring.
  • It is characterized by its lineup of specialists with diverse backgrounds and is able to solve a wide variety of management issues as a one-stop shop.

HNI Corporation – Strong 1Q25; Productivity Gains; Strength in Contract

By Water Tower Research

  • 1QFY25 Adj EPS of $0.44 beat our estimate of $0.35 on better-than-expected revenues in both segments and continued margin strength.
  • HNI saw growth on the contract side of Workplace Furnishings, with revenue up 4% Y/Y, and in the renovation/retrofit side of Residential Building Products, with sales up 13% Y/Y.
  • These gains offset relative weakness in the traditionally more volatile SMB component of Workplace Furnishings, down 5% Y/Y, and in the new construction component of Residential Building Products, which was only up 3% Y/Y. 

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Himax Technologies Inc Adr, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Unusual Machines, Domain Holdings Australia , Soluna Holdings , Digital Arts, Okinawa Cellular Telephone, Amkor Technology, Softcreate Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Himax Advances Optical Chip Solutions for NVIDIA and TSMC; But Fog Lingers Over China Auto Recovery
  • SMIC 1Q25 Strong Wafer Growth but Weak ASP. Same in 2Q. Large Capex to Continue in 2025.
  • Hua Hong: Very Poor Margins to Continue, Operating Losses for Longer
  • Unusual Machines, Inc.: 1Q25 Earnings; Strong Quarter, Outlook
  • Domain Holdings (DHG AU): CoStar’s A$4.43 Binding Proposal a Done Deal
  • Soluna Holdings, Inc: Two New Wind-Powered Data Centers
  • Digital Arts (2326 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
  • Okinawa Cellular Telephone (9436 JP): FY FY03/25 Flash Update
  • Amkor Technology: The Advanced Packaging Solutions, Semiconductor Growth & Other Major Drivers!
  • Softcreate Holdings (3371 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update


Himax Advances Optical Chip Solutions for NVIDIA and TSMC; But Fog Lingers Over China Auto Recovery

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Auto ICs over 50% of revenue and maintaining market share leading position, but 2Q25 guidance reflects China auto industry caution as China stimulus repeat impact fades and inventory stays lean.
  • Himax advances in co-packaged optics (CPO) shipping samples; to supply TSMC and NVIDIA; Separately, Himax’s AR display tech may align with META’s needs.
  • Strong auto positioning with 200+ Tcon design wins and CPO opportunity in AI/HPC supply chain reinforce long-term upside, despite soft near-term visibility. Maintain our Structural Long view on Himax.

SMIC 1Q25 Strong Wafer Growth but Weak ASP. Same in 2Q. Large Capex to Continue in 2025.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 1H25 strong revenue growth continues as capacity increase, “production shifting back domestically”, but weakening ASP and clearly demand pull-in in 1H due to US tariffs and China domestic consumer subsidies.
  • “2H not clear, especially after late 3Q”. Management mentions the usual macro / US tariffs unknowns. 2025 Capex similar to 2024 (US$7.7bn, 80% revenue), D&A increasing, ASP down, margins muted.
  • The stock is as expensive as always. 49x 2025 EPS, 41x 2026. Consensus is not expecting a negative tariffs shock or weaker China domestic demand.

Hua Hong: Very Poor Margins to Continue, Operating Losses for Longer

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Operating loss in 1Q25 will persist in 2Q25 – I expect throughout 2025. Hua Hong rapid capacity increase is supposedly sold out but D&A is increasing much faster than revenue. 
  • Consensus is not expecting an end-demand slowdown resulting from US import tariffs, or sluggish China domestic consumption. Consensus expects Hua Hong to sell its capacity increase fully. 
  • Given losses in 1H25, Consensus EPS forecast is too high for 2025, probably for 2026 as well. Stock is expensive at 43x 2025 EPS, EPS forecasts looks too high.

Unusual Machines, Inc.: 1Q25 Earnings; Strong Quarter, Outlook

By Water Tower Research

  • Unusual Machines (NYSE American: UMAC) reported another record quarter with revenue of approximately $2.04 million and a gross margin of 24% with some impact from tariffs, which the company expects to be short lived.
  • This growth was achieved even though US government purchases have paused recently. Margins took a slight hit from the tariffs.
  • The company raised $40 million at $5.00 a share to bolster its balance sheet (customers and suppliers need to see the ability to work large orders), and to build out its Orlando motor manufacturing facility.

Domain Holdings (DHG AU): CoStar’s A$4.43 Binding Proposal a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Costar Group (CSGP US) at A$4.43 per share, a 42.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • As CoStar is a US entity, FIRB approval should be forthcoming. The scheme vote is low-risk, as Nine (60.05% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour of it. 
  • While attractive to precedent transaction multiples, the offer remains light compared to peer multiples. At the last close and for an end-of-August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.1%/3.6%. 

Soluna Holdings, Inc: Two New Wind-Powered Data Centers

By Water Tower Research

  • Soluna just published its monthly update, which includes signing of term sheets for two new wind- powered data centers (Project Hedy for 120MW and Project Ellen for 100 MW), securing land for 166MW of Project Kati, and a new partnership with Blockware for hosting capacity at Project Dorothy 2.
  • For April Soluna’s hosted hashrate was a record 1,727 PH/s, and it mined 10 Bitcoins
  • Project Dorothy 1A/1B: Dorothy 1A (25 MW hosting) is fully deployed, and Dorothy 1B (25 MW prop-mining) has achieved strong hashrate growth and met Q1 2025 ancillary service requirements.

Digital Arts (2326 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Digital Arts forecasts FY03/26 sales of JPY12.6bn, operating profit of JPY6.2bn, and net income of JPY4.2bn.
  • The company projects FY03/26 cost of sales at JPY3.3bn, with significant increases in labor and communication costs.
  • Digital Arts plans a JPY95.0 annual dividend per share, including a JPY5.0 commemorative dividend for its 30th anniversary.

Okinawa Cellular Telephone (9436 JP): FY FY03/25 Flash Update

By Shared Research

  • For FY03/25, the company reported operating revenue of JPY84.3bn (+8.1% YoY) and net income of JPY12.4bn (+2.3% YoY).
  • The company revised FY03/25 revenue forecast to JPY83.0bn, citing higher au Denki and handset sales, with increased expenses.
  • FY03/26 forecasts include operating revenue of JPY85.0bn (+0.8% YoY) and capex investment of JPY6.9bn (+20.3% YoY).

Amkor Technology: The Advanced Packaging Solutions, Semiconductor Growth & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • Amkor Technology reported its first-quarter financial results for 2025, delivering revenue of $1.32 billion, which reached the upper end of the company’s guidance.
  • Earnings per share (EPS) stood at $0.09, pressured by increased research and development (R&D) expenses dedicated to advancing RDL technology for upcoming programs.
  • The company’s global manufacturing operations have largely remained insulated from current tariffs and ongoing trade regulations due to their presence in free trade zones, minimizing direct impacts from U.S. import tariffs.

Softcreate Holdings (3371 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY03/25 revenue grew 10.9% YoY to JPY31.0bn, with operating profit at JPY5.5bn and net income at JPY3.5bn.
  • EC Solutions revenue increased 6.9% YoY to JPY16.6bn, driven by e-commerce site development and cloud services.
  • FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY33.5bn, operating profit JPY6.0bn, with growth in EC Solutions and IT Solutions segments.

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Daily Brief Financials: Aadhar Housing Finance, Wanda Hotel Development, Aspen Insurance Holdings, Canara Robeco AMC, Avjennings Ltd, BlackRock Latin American Inves, American Integrity Insurance Group, Centurion Corp, Krung Thai Bank Pub, Aruhi Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup – PE Owner Is up 5.6x, with US$800m Lockup Expiry Soon
  • Wanda Hotel Development’s Asset Sale: Potential Upside and Key Risks Analyzed
  • Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Attractive Valuation Brings Buyers, Trades Well in Week One
  • Canara Robeco AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July
  • BlackRock Latin American Inv. Trust — Opportunities in out-of-favour region
  • American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Sector Dedicated Buyers Get a Winner on Opening Pop
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (09-May-2025): GLP to right ship post $1.8B loss.
  • Thai Banks 1Q25 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB), the Scorecard Stand-Out
  • Aruhi Corp (7198 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update


Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup – PE Owner Is up 5.6x, with US$800m Lockup Expiry Soon

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon
  • AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Wanda Hotel Development’s Asset Sale: Potential Upside and Key Risks Analyzed

By Special Situation Investments

  • Wanda Hotel Development plans to sell hotel management operations to Tongcheng Travel for HK$2.4bn, exceeding its market cap.
  • WHD intends to return most sale proceeds to shareholders, retaining some for working capital and future investments.
  • WHD retains valuable real estate assets, including Chicago condos and a Guilin shopping mall, with potential additional sales.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Attractive Valuation Brings Buyers, Trades Well in Week One

By IPO Boutique

  • The stock opened at $33.25 versus the $30.00 issue price for a gain of 10.8% at first trade.
  • According to guidance that the deal finished north of 10-times oversubscribed. The guidance pointed to a midpoint pricing and that is where the final outcome occurred.
  • The sponsor, Apollo Global, is known for being a shrewd entity and a stickler on price, however, in this instance investors saw solid value in the company.

Canara Robeco AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Canara Robeco AMC (570515Z IN) is looking to raise about US$176m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, JM Fin and SBI Caps.
  • Canara Robeco is an asset management company engaged in managing mutual funds and providing investment advice on Indian equities to Robeco Hong Kong Limited, a member of the Promoter Group.
  • According to CRISIL, it is India’s second oldest asset management company.

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

By Arun George

  • The Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) IE considers AVID’s A$0.655 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$0.54-0.61 valuation range.
  • The offer is conditional on shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO). The vote is low-risk, as SC Global (54.02% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour. 
  • The attractive offer represents a 98.5% premium to the undisturbed price. At the last close and for a 14 August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/2.8%.  

BlackRock Latin American Inv. Trust — Opportunities in out-of-favour region

By Edison Investment Research

BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust’s (BRLA’s) lead co-manager Sam Vecht reiterates his enthusiasm for a region that is out of favour with other investors. He recognises that returns in Latin America can be volatile, so takes a longer-term view, seeking companies with the potential for stable growth that are trading on reasonable valuations. The manager has developed an in-depth knowledge of the region because of his frequent visits, which include travel to the smaller countries as well as to Brazil and Mexico, the economies of which dominate Latin America. Vecht believes that meeting a wide network, including corporate executives, government officials and community members, allows him to uncover interesting opportunities that may be overlooked by other investors.


American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Sector Dedicated Buyers Get a Winner on Opening Pop

By IPO Boutique

  • Specialty insurer American Integrity Insurance Group (AII US) came to market Thursday with solid interest from sector-dedicated investors producing a 15.6% winner at first trade.
  • According to our sources, the deal was well-oversubscribed which equates to roughly 5x-6x in terms of granular subscription levels.
  • Given the choppiness of the broad market in April and the temporary pause in the IPO market, the insurance sector was the perfect area to lead the comeback.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (09-May-2025): GLP to right ship post $1.8B loss.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • GLP aims to bounce back from a $1.8B loss by selling its international funds business.
  • BlackRock, Centurion, Coliwoo, and Arch are exploring residential opportunities at the Singapore Forum.
  • The goal is to create a mutually beneficial situation for investors and occupiers through these discussions.

Thai Banks 1Q25 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB), the Scorecard Stand-Out

By Victor Galliano

  • Krung Thai ranks top of the Thai bank peer group on our weighted scorecard methodology, based on multiple valuation parameters, as well as balance sheet and return metrics
  • Krung Thai is driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering close to double-digit ROE with a premium capital ratio for a PBV ratio of under 0.7x
  • The recent Trump tariff induced correction in the Krung Thai share price is a buying opportunity; it has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx

Aruhi Corp (7198 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In FY03/25, SBI ARUHI’s operating revenue increased 9.2% YoY to JPY22.3bn, with pre-tax profit up 4.3% YoY.
  • For FY03/26, the company forecasts operating revenue of JPY23.0bn (+3.2% YoY) and pre-tax profit of JPY2.5bn (+3.0% YoY).
  • SBI ARUHI’s five-year plan aims for JPY55.0bn operating revenue, JPY10.0bn pre-tax profit, and over 10.0% ROE.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Geely Auto, Green Tea Group, Webjet Group, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, NIFTY Index, Beenos Inc, Decollte Holdings, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV, United Arrows and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Geely Is (Mostly) Trading “Rich”; And May Still Bump Zeekr Terms
  • Green Tea Group IPO – Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation
  • Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying
  • Cambodian Rubber Production Struggles To Keep Pace With Tire Exports
  • NIFTY INDEX Outlook: Back in an Uptrend – Where To Buy This Dip
  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update
  • Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update
  • BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Newness, Pricing Drives Returns; Reiterate Buy, PT
  • United Arrows (7606 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update


StubWorld: Geely Is (Mostly) Trading “Rich”; And May Still Bump Zeekr Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • Geely Auto (175 HK)‘s discount to NAV is less than half its 12-month average. And Geely is generally trading tighter to listed PRC auto peers. 
  • Preceding my comments on Geely – and NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Green Tea Group IPO – Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation

By Troy Wong

  • Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise US$157m (HKD 1.2bn) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • GTG is the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland China, it has been gaining market share historically and is likely to continue.
  • GTG plans to accelerate its expansion of the restaurant network, focusing on expansion into tier two cities and below, with small restaurants rather than large ones.

Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 30th September 2024, B2C-player Webjet Group (WJL AU) demerged from (now) B2B-player WEB Travel Group (WEB AU). This was discussed in Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger. 
  • Webjet is up 34% this week, on decent volume. The word on the street is that an undisclosed buyer with ~5% was seeking to add an additional 5% (19.6mn shares). 
  • Webjet announced after market yesterday it had became aware of such a buyer. That’s all the information at hand.

Cambodian Rubber Production Struggles To Keep Pace With Tire Exports

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  In Q1 2025, Cambodia exports 59,754 tons of rubber, down 13.8% YoY  
  • Overall rubber production in Q1 2025, 64,080 tons, down 7.9% YoY  
  • Trump tariff, EUDR pose challenge to Cambodian rubber and tire  

NIFTY INDEX Outlook: Back in an Uptrend – Where To Buy This Dip

By Nico Rosti

  • In our previousNIFTY Index insight we highlighted rally targets in the 24039-24496 zone. The index reached 24589 last week, double-topped this week, then closed the week down at 24008.
  • The index was ultra-overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the pullback was overdue. This pullback is a buy opportunity.
  • This insight discusses key support zones to buy and profit taking targets for the rally.

Beenos Inc (3328 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q2 FY09/24 results show a 2.1% YoY GMV decrease to JPY57.6bn and a 40.5% YoY revenue decline.
  • In Q2 FY09/25, GMV increased due to marketing initiatives and new features, with total membership surpassing 6mn.
  • BEENOS’s Q2 FY09/25 progress towards full-year targets was 50.1% for GMV and 52.0% for revenue.

Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company reported revenue of JPY3.0bn, operating profit of JPY204mn, and net profit of JPY98mn, all showing YoY growth.
  • Revenue growth was driven by increased photo shoots and unit prices, despite higher personnel and transaction costs.
  • The fitness gym business saw a 29.0% YoY revenue decline due to the closure of the Ashiya store.

BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Newness, Pricing Drives Returns; Reiterate Buy, PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $22.50 price target and projections for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the May catalog.
  • While May did not register any material new campaigns, and historically is a key transition month, the catalog continued the key tenets of the 2025 focus: 1) more product: SKUs rose YoY 4.6%, the fourth consecutive month of YoY SKU increases; 2) more newness: new product offerings increases YoY, with kitchen the key driver; 3) higher pricing: the average pricing for May was the highest the last four years and up 9.3% YoY and 4) more bargains: May also had a higher level of product discounts YoY, as the Mexican consumer remains focused on bargains; that said, May price cuts were the lowest level in 2025.
  • We believe the May catalog reflected a somewhat resolute Betterware management, focused on driving returns in a tough Mexican economy.

United Arrows (7606 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY03/25 revenue grew 12.4% YoY, driven by proactive inventory strategies and expanded product lineup, with GPM at 52.1%.
  • FY03/26 forecasts include 9.8% YoY revenue growth, 12.2% YoY gross profit increase, and 12.7% YoY operating profit growth.
  • FY03/25 net income fell 12.2% YoY due to impairment losses, store relocations, and higher corporate tax rate.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Revelation Biosciences , Shionogi & Co, Charm Care Corp, Longeveron and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • REVB: New Market Potential and Quarterly Results
  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Torii Acquisition to Broaden Portfolio; High R&D to Dent Profitability
  • Charm Care Corp (6062 JP): Q3 FY06/25 flash update
  • LGVN: Setting Up for a Pivotal Year


REVB: New Market Potential and Quarterly Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Revelation Biosciences is a life sciences company whose development of immunologic-based therapies is based on the well-established biology of phosphorylated hexaacyl disaccharide (PHAD) and its effect on the innate immune system.
  • The company announced its 1Q2025 financial results after recently revealing that it is targeting a new target indication with its Gemini treatment, the prevention of infection in burn patients.

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Torii Acquisition to Broaden Portfolio; High R&D to Dent Profitability

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP) is acquiring Torii Pharmaceutical, as well as the pharmaceutical business of Japan Tobacco and U.S. group company Akros Pharma (sub-subsidiary of Japan Tobacco) for ~¥160B.
  • With minimum overlap in focus areas, Shionogi believes that the transaction will create a leading company that delivers innovative pharmaceuticals. However, R&D expenses of the combined company will remain elevated.
  • Considering the promising pipeline, we are hopeful on the long-term growth prospect of the combined company. Shionogi is scheduled to announce FY25 result on May 12.

Charm Care Corp (6062 JP): Q3 FY06/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue increased by 2.5% YoY to JPY30.3bn, with operating profit up 1.0% YoY to JPY2.5bn.
  • Occupancy rates at existing assisted-living facilities averaged 94.4%, with LIKE facilities at 99.3% in cumulative Q3.
  • Good Partners’ revenue and profit were strong, with a 45.5% YoY revenue increase to JPY2.0bn, including internal revenue.

LGVN: Setting Up for a Pivotal Year

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Longeveron is focusing on using its primary treatment, Lomecel-B, to fight a rare pediatric heart birth defect that devastates families but continues to receive good FDA news regarding its treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease.
  • The company announced its 1Q results that illustrate the company is on the verge of potentially transformational year.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, Meituan, Jd, Kingsoft, China Mobile, CNOOC
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32


HK Short Interest Weekly: BYD, Meituan, Jd, Kingsoft, China Mobile, CNOOC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 25th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
  • We highlight short changes in BYD, Meituan, Jd, Kingsoft, China Mobile, CNOOC.

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD26.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32.

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Daily Brief ESG: Common Attitudes Toward IPOs Are Found in Parent-Subsidiary Listings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Common Attitudes Toward IPOs Are Found in Parent-Subsidiary Listings


Common Attitudes Toward IPOs Are Found in Parent-Subsidiary Listings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The reason for slower reforming Growth Market seems to weigh on consideration for companies undergoing IPO review and coordination with stakeholders in IPO business. The investor’s perspective is missing here.
  • Growth market listed companies that do not receive overseas investor engagement have more difficulty than prime market companies in raising their market capitalization to meet listing retention criteria.
  • Behind the failure to grow after IPOs are many managers who view IPO as place to cash in their equity rather than place to obtain the capital needed for growth.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report: Electric Two-Wheeler Market in India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report: Electric Two-Wheeler Market in India
  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rally on US-UK Trade Deal
  • Japan Morning Connection: Market Risk on with Trump Telling Punters to Buy Ahead of W/E
  • #143 India Insight: DoT Clears Starlink, NSE Eyes Power Trade, IndusInd Staff Under Probe
  • India-UK FTA: Early Thoughts on Trade and Opportunity
  • Cement Wars: Ultratech Vs Adani Cements


Thematic Report: Electric Two-Wheeler Market in India

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s Electric Two-Wheeler (E2W) market is expected to surge from 5.1% penetration in FY2024 to 35-40% by FY2031, growing at a CAGR of 41-44%.
  • The E2W sector’s growth is driven by government support, rising fuel costs, air pollution concerns, and a young, tech-savvy population, making it a key player in India’s sustainable mobility transition.
  • E2Ws are set to dominate India’s two-wheeler market, offering consumers cost-effective, eco-friendly alternatives, reshaping mobility and providing new investment opportunities in the automotive and energy sectors.

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Rally on US-UK Trade Deal

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks rose after President Trump announced a US-UK trade deal and expressed optimism for upcoming China trade talks, fuelling hopes of easing global trade tensions
  • NTT will acquire the remaining 42% of NTT DATA’s shares through a tender offer worth approximately 2,370 billion yen, taking the company private
  • Nintendo forecasts selling 15 million units of its new Switch 2 console in the fiscal year ending March 2026.

Japan Morning Connection: Market Risk on with Trump Telling Punters to Buy Ahead of W/E

By Andrew Jackson

  • UK deal and anticipation of a positive outcome to China talks lifting positioning into risk assets.
  • Quantum computing names flying after D-wave numbers may lift Socionext.
  • Nintendo numbers obviously conservative, while Ibiden points to a bigger NVDA product mix + index upside.

#143 India Insight: DoT Clears Starlink, NSE Eyes Power Trade, IndusInd Staff Under Probe

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Starlink receives DoT approval for satellite internet in India, partnering with Jio and Airtel, targeting rural and remote areas.
  • NSE receives Sebi’s in-principle approval to launch electricity derivatives. Discussions on contract structure and tenure are ongoing.
  • Grant Thornton identifies 25 Indusind Bank (IIB IN) staff involved in accounting lapses. Some may be retained, others face termination.

India-UK FTA: Early Thoughts on Trade and Opportunity

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India-UK FTA negotiations officially concluded May 6, 2025, securing tariff-free UK market access for many Indian goods.
  • Eliminating UK duties boosts Indian textile competitiveness significantly and improves mobility for service professionals, driving trade growth.
  • Increases optimism for Indian textile, IT, and export-focused stocks as the FTA unlocks substantial new opportunities.

Cement Wars: Ultratech Vs Adani Cements

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The Indian cement industry saw strong demand in Q4 FY25, with industry volume growth of 4% YoY and leading players reporting double-digit sales growth.
  • Demand in April 2025 was weak across most regions due to severe heatwaves and labor shortages, slowing construction activity significantly.
  • Cement demand is expected to grow at 7–8% in FY26, driven by infrastructure projects and housing, with major players expanding capacity.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities
  • [Japan M&A] MitCorp (8058) Buys Out Subsidiary Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451) – Bad Process, Bad Price
  • [Japan M&A] YAGEO Overbids Minebea’s Overbid of YAGEO’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid – The Endgame
  • Swire Pac (19 HK): Thai Beverage Spin-Off
  • NTT DATA (9613 JP): NTT (9432 JP) Tender Offer at JPY4,000
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): End Game Nears as Yageo Launches Its Hostile Tender at JPY6,200
  • Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP): MitCorp (8058 JP) Light Tender Offer at JPY6,340
  • [Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio
  • Korea’s FSC Is Rolling Out the Legal Framework for Fractional Share Trading, Starting September 30
  • What Will Remain with Demerged Siemens Ltd?


[Japan M&A] NTT (9432) Overpays To Buy Out NTT Data (9613) Minorities

By Travis Lundy

  • Pre-Open, we got a Nikkei article which suggested four different prices possible. We got something in the middle. I think NTT is probably overpaying here.
  • There is a fair bit of transparency in the documents and valuation. That is encouraging. There are no synergies counted in the fair calculations. That is discouraging.
  • This will not trade like a “normal” Japan risk arb situation. There will be nuances. 

[Japan M&A] MitCorp (8058) Buys Out Subsidiary Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451) – Bad Process, Bad Price

By Travis Lundy

  • Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP) was supposed to announce earnings at 2pm JST. They didn’t. Someone (or people) decided that meant there might be a takeover. There was.
  • The stock popped nearly 15% to ¥6,200, paused, was flat for an hour, then popped again, closing at ¥6,150/share. Post-close, we get a deal at ¥6,340/share.  
  • A disappointing process. At ¥6,240, the Special Committee said it was “far from a standard that takes into account the interests of TargetCo’s minority shareholders.” At ¥6,340, they dealt. Aaaargh.

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Overbids Minebea’s Overbid of YAGEO’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid – The Endgame

By Travis Lundy

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has now strongly overbid Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s strong overbid of Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s initial hostile offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)
  • We are now 40% higher than the initial bid and the best bid is approaching the top end of Valuation Agent’s top-of-DCF-range prices. There may be a bit more. Maybe.
  • The question now is only whether Minebea responds. If it does, there is a little juice left, but if not, that’s it. It should get done.

Swire Pac (19 HK): Thai Beverage Spin-Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is proposing the spin-off and separate listing on the SET of non-wholly-owned ThaiNamthip Corporation Limited, a Coca-Cola franchise operator in Thailand, Cambodia and Laos.
  • On the 30th September, Swire completed the 55.7% acquisition for THB42,615.7mn (HK$9,470.1mn). ThaiNamthip concurrently sought to acquire a 30% stake in Swire Coca-Cola’s operations in Vietnam and Cambodia for HK$2,114.6mn.
  • At the time of the acquisition, ThaiNamthip had an extrapolative price tag of ~HK$17bn. Should the proposed spin-off complete, ThaiNamthip will remain a non-wholly owned subsidiary of Swire.

NTT DATA (9613 JP): NTT (9432 JP) Tender Offer at JPY4,000

By Arun George

  • NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) has recommended a tender offer from NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) at JPY4,000 per share, a 33.7% premium to the last close.
  • The Nikkei earlier reported on the offer. The offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent transactions. 
  • The offer could be considered light as it is below the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range. However, the shareholder structure suggests a done deal.  

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): End Game Nears as Yageo Launches Its Hostile Tender at JPY6,200

By Arun George

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has revised its tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY6,200 per share, a 12.7% premium to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s JPY5,500 offer. 
  • There are factors supporting Minebea again outbidding Yageo and Minebea withdrawing its offer. Minebea is in a predicament as Yageo has established that it wants Shibaura at any cost.
  • The most likely scenario is that Minebea withdraws its tender and the Board switches to a neutral opinion due to its ongoing non-price-related concerns. 

Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP): MitCorp (8058 JP) Light Tender Offer at JPY6,340

By Arun George

  • Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) at JPY6,340 per share, a 17.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • While the offer represents an all-time high, it is materially below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
  • The light offer resulted from an unusually long process, with twelve rounds of proposals. However, the shareholder structure suggests a done deal.  

[Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio

By Travis Lundy

  • Large Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) investor Orbis Investments last month said they were against the Tsuruha/Welcia merger ratio. They wanted a cash takeover above Aeon’s Oasis buy price from 2024.
  • Influential shareholder proxy advisor ISS has apparently come out recommending shareholders vote against. That’s a start, but the hard work needs to be Orbis talking to domestic passive managers.
  • Getting 90% of foreign active managers as of end-February would make it a very close-run thing, but Orbis really needs some more to show up against the ratio.

Korea’s FSC Is Rolling Out the Legal Framework for Fractional Share Trading, Starting September 30

By Sanghyun Park

  • With the Capital Markets Act in place, real-time quotes, intraday fills, and orderbook trading for fractional shares are possible—opening the door for Korea’s Robinhood moment.
  • Fractional share trading in Korea is still minimal at 0.1% of volume, but real-time infrastructure from brokers could drive significant flow and growth.
  • It will deepen sentiment-driven flows and cause real-time price discovery shifts, opening up new trading opportunities.

What Will Remain with Demerged Siemens Ltd?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Post-Demerger, Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) continues with Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, and Mobility, focusing on core segments like automation, electrification, and rail transport.
  • The company is getting significant orders in each segment with strong tailwind across all segment.
  • Siemens Limited’s remaining business is projected to grow at a 15% CAGR, supported by strong order backlogs and improved margins.

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