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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: DearU and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX BBIG K-New Deal Rebalancing: Official Results & Passive Flow Impacts


KRX BBIG K-New Deal Rebalancing: Official Results & Passive Flow Impacts

By Sanghyun Park

  • After results were transitioned to non-public information, it has been observed that results are reflected in prices significantly later, with substantial price impact occurring close to the rebalancing trading day. 
  • Even though the AUMs have recently decreased, the passive impact size is quite substantial, considering a recent pattern of price impact concentrating within a maximum of about two trading days.
  • A heavy Long-Short setup on these pairs, DearU / Douzone Bizon and SK Biopharmaceuticals / SK Bioscience (302440 KS), is something we should very actively consider.

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Daily Brief Australia: Newcrest Mining and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct


Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct

By David Blennerhassett

  • After being granted due diligence, Newmont (NEM US) firmed an all-scrip Offer on the 15 May for Newcrest (NCM AU) at 0.400 new Newmont shares for each Newcrest share held. 
  • The Offer, by way of a Scheme, permits Newcrest to pay a special franked dividend of up to $US1.10/share on top of the Offer terms. 
  • The Scheme Booklet has now been lodged with ASIC. Newcrest shareholders vote on the transaction on the 13 October. The record date for the special dividend is the 19 October.

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Daily Brief Financials: Yanlord Land, Standard Chartered, Howard Hughes Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023
  • Standard Chartered – Singapore Credit Growth Negative In July | Credit Costs Up 6x QoQ But Still Low
  • HHH: NAV Reduction, PT to $110


Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Greentown China
  4. ReNew Energy Global
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Standard Chartered – Singapore Credit Growth Negative In July | Credit Costs Up 6x QoQ But Still Low

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Singapore credit growth turned negative at -3% YoY in July where STAN has major exposure, while many regions, are not high growth, where credit metrics are worsening, like HK, China
  • 88% of loans in well-developed countries, so that the old moniker of STAN being ‘an Emerging Market Bank’ may no longer apply, with NPLs as an overlying risk
  • Credit costs rose 6x from 1Q23 to 2Q23, but the 19bps level in 2Q23 remains low relative to its longer-term 62bps average – which excludes the Asian Financial Crisis

HHH: NAV Reduction, PT to $110

By Hamed Khorsand

  • HHH held its annual investor day updating investors on the continued increase in population at its MPC, but that was not enough to offset the decline in NAV
  • HHH’s management reiterated the trends that have fueled the business have continued with price per square foot and acre having increased over the past year.
  • HHH is now estimating its NAV at $129 compared to $170 last year. We are lowering our price target to $110 from $150 to reflect the erosion in the NAV

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Daily Brief Singapore: Yanlord Land, PTT PCL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023
  • SDR Earnings Snapshot: PTTEP beats estimates, correlation to oil price draws investors’ interest


Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Greentown China
  4. ReNew Energy Global
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


SDR Earnings Snapshot: PTTEP beats estimates, correlation to oil price draws investors’ interest

By Geoff Howie

  • Since the launch of Thai Singapore Depository Receipts in May, the three inaugural Thai SDRs – Airports of Thailand (AOT) , CP All and PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP) – collectively traded over S$11 million on the Singapore Exchange.
  • The top traded SDR was PTTEP on the back of volatility in oil prices with max and daily trading ranges of (20 ticks) and 1% (7 ticks), respectively.
  • Airports of Thailand PLC is the largest publicly traded company in Thailand and the world’s largest airport operator by market capitalization.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Japan Tobacco, Tuhu Car and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar
  • Tuhu Car Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Will Likely Need a Markdown from Its Latest Funding Round


Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Combustible tobacco is declining globally, but Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) is defying the odds by outperforming the industry significantly through capturing market share from competitors.
  • Also in Heated Tobacco, Japan Tobacco is slowly but steadily capturing market share from IQOS and other heated tobacco makers.
  • There will be no price hikes this year, but we think that there’s enough spillover from the price hikes in the past 3-4 years to maintain JT’s OP growth momentum.

Tuhu Car Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Will Likely Need a Markdown from Its Latest Funding Round

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • We have looked at the firm’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in earlier notes. In this note, we will discuss our earnings assumptions and thoughts on valuation.

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Daily Brief United States: Howard Hughes Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • HHH: NAV Reduction, PT to $110


HHH: NAV Reduction, PT to $110

By Hamed Khorsand

  • HHH held its annual investor day updating investors on the continued increase in population at its MPC, but that was not enough to offset the decline in NAV
  • HHH’s management reiterated the trends that have fueled the business have continued with price per square foot and acre having increased over the past year.
  • HHH is now estimating its NAV at $129 compared to $170 last year. We are lowering our price target to $110 from $150 to reflect the erosion in the NAV

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief India: Yanlord Land, HCL Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023
  • Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)


Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Greentown China
  4. ReNew Energy Global
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
  • The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
  • Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today’s buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: Tuhu Car, Yanlord Land, Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tuhu Car Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Will Likely Need a Markdown from Its Latest Funding Round
  • Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Slowing Growth


Tuhu Car Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation – Will Likely Need a Markdown from Its Latest Funding Round

By Clarence Chu

  • Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
  • We have looked at the firm’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in earlier notes. In this note, we will discuss our earnings assumptions and thoughts on valuation.

Weekly Wrap – 08 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Greentown China
  4. ReNew Energy Global
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Slowing Growth

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Japan: Japan Tobacco, Softbank Group, JMDC , Peptidream Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar
  • SoftBank Group (9984 JP); Arm IPO, Priced for Disappointment
  • JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer
  • Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged


Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Combustible tobacco is declining globally, but Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) is defying the odds by outperforming the industry significantly through capturing market share from competitors.
  • Also in Heated Tobacco, Japan Tobacco is slowly but steadily capturing market share from IQOS and other heated tobacco makers.
  • There will be no price hikes this year, but we think that there’s enough spillover from the price hikes in the past 3-4 years to maintain JT’s OP growth momentum.

SoftBank Group (9984 JP); Arm IPO, Priced for Disappointment

By Victor Galliano

  • SoftBank’s internal transaction acquiring the 25% Arm stake held by SVF1 valued Arm at USD64bn; the IPO valuation range is from USD48bn to USD52bn
  • This valuation range implies an Nvidia-like price to prospective 2024E sales multiple range of 22x-25x; the prospectus reveals risks with Arm China, and confirms its lacklustre revenue and earnings growth
  • Given SoftBank’s largely negative track record on the after-market performance of its investee companies IPOs and SPOs; we expect further downside to SoftBank’s share price

JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • JMDC (4483 JP) announced a partial tender offer for Omron Corp (6645 JP), the largest shareholder. Omron aims to make JMDC a consolidated subsidiary.  
  • The offer is for a minimum of 12.0m shares (18.52% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 15.0m shares (23.08%) at JPY5,700 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • Irrevocables (Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)) represent a 13.63% ownership ratio. While the offer is light, it will likely succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a 7.1% minority acceptance rate. 

Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged

By Tina Banerjee

  • Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) has reported strong result for H1 2023. Revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with the year-ago period.
  • 2023 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue of ¥30B (+12% YoY), core operating profit of ¥6.7B (-31% YoY), and net profit of ¥2.7B (-64% YoY).
  • In the mid-term (over the next 3–4 years), Peptidream aims for revenue of ~¥50B. The company has set a goal to reach revenue of ~¥100B by 2030.  

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Most Read: JFE Holdings, Intage Holdings, Metro Pacific Investments Co, Empyrean Technology , DearU, Japan Tobacco, Aquila Acquisition Corporation, Softbank Group, JMDC , Newcrest Mining and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • JFE Holdings (5411) Stock+CB Offering
  • NTT’s Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) –
  • Metro Pacific’s Tender Offer Kicks Off
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Potential Changes in December
  • KRX BBIG K-New Deal Rebalancing: Official Results & Passive Flow Impacts
  • Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar
  • Aquila Acquisition Corp (7836 HK): ZG Group’s Punchy Valuation
  • SoftBank Group (9984 JP); Arm IPO, Priced for Disappointment
  • JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer
  • Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct


JFE Holdings (5411) Stock+CB Offering

By Travis Lundy

  • Today JFE Holdings (5411 JP) announced it would raise ~JPY 121bn in an equity offering of 55mm treasury shares and JPY 90bn in a Convertible Bond offering. 
  • ¥125bn will be spent on capex for expansion, ¥75bn for capex, investments, and R&D related to decarbonisation, as well as repayment of debt to 2028.
  • This is a heavier than a “normal” equity offering. And recent large-ish equity offerings seem to have more volatility in outcome (post-offer overhang, or squeeze) than previous years.

NTT’s Partial Offer for Marketing Consultant Intage (4326) –

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) announced a partial offer to buy a minimum of 40.0% and a maximum of 51.0% of Intage Holdings (4326 JP)
  • Six crossholders holding 20.98% between them have separately agreed to tender a total of 19.9%. That means a minimum 25.4% minority participation. With success, minimum pro-ration is 51.5%. 
  • The dynamics of this deal and where synergies lie suggests people need to think really hard about where they underwrite future illiquid ownership. 

Metro Pacific’s Tender Offer Kicks Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 26 April, First Pacific (142 HK) and three other entities, proposed delisting Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM) at PHP 4.63/share. This was subsequently bumped to PHP 5.20.
  • A Special Stockholders’ Meeting was held on August 8, and MPI stakeholders approved all the resolutions. An SGM for independent First Pac shareholders will be held on the 24 August. 
  • The Tender Offer is now open and closes on the 7 September, with (expected) settlement on 19 September – provided the Tender Offer delisting conditions are met.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • Over 85% of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential index changes at the December rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 8 December.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 1.93% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.93bn.
  • The huge inflow to passive trackers has led to the gap between the potential adds and deletes narrowing. That should reverse as passive will need to sell the deletes.

KRX BBIG K-New Deal Rebalancing: Official Results & Passive Flow Impacts

By Sanghyun Park

  • After results were transitioned to non-public information, it has been observed that results are reflected in prices significantly later, with substantial price impact occurring close to the rebalancing trading day. 
  • Even though the AUMs have recently decreased, the passive impact size is quite substantial, considering a recent pattern of price impact concentrating within a maximum of about two trading days.
  • A heavy Long-Short setup on these pairs, DearU / Douzone Bizon and SK Biopharmaceuticals / SK Bioscience (302440 KS), is something we should very actively consider.

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Call: No Price Hikes This Year, But Profits Poised to Soar

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Combustible tobacco is declining globally, but Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) is defying the odds by outperforming the industry significantly through capturing market share from competitors.
  • Also in Heated Tobacco, Japan Tobacco is slowly but steadily capturing market share from IQOS and other heated tobacco makers.
  • There will be no price hikes this year, but we think that there’s enough spillover from the price hikes in the past 3-4 years to maintain JT’s OP growth momentum.

Aquila Acquisition Corp (7836 HK): ZG Group’s Punchy Valuation

By Arun George

  • Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK) agreed to a De-SPAC transaction with ZG Group (formerly Zhaogang.com), the world’s largest digital platform for third-party steel transactions.
  • ZG has a questionable business model, struggling to generate profits or underlying FCF. This dynamic suggests that ZG has not established a sustainable competitive advantage. 
  • The negotiated value of ZG in the De-SPAC transaction is HK$10,004 million (US$1,277 million). Our valuation analysis suggests that this negotiated value is unrealistic.

SoftBank Group (9984 JP); Arm IPO, Priced for Disappointment

By Victor Galliano

  • SoftBank’s internal transaction acquiring the 25% Arm stake held by SVF1 valued Arm at USD64bn; the IPO valuation range is from USD48bn to USD52bn
  • This valuation range implies an Nvidia-like price to prospective 2024E sales multiple range of 22x-25x; the prospectus reveals risks with Arm China, and confirms its lacklustre revenue and earnings growth
  • Given SoftBank’s largely negative track record on the after-market performance of its investee companies IPOs and SPOs; we expect further downside to SoftBank’s share price

JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • JMDC (4483 JP) announced a partial tender offer for Omron Corp (6645 JP), the largest shareholder. Omron aims to make JMDC a consolidated subsidiary.  
  • The offer is for a minimum of 12.0m shares (18.52% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 15.0m shares (23.08%) at JPY5,700 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • Irrevocables (Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)) represent a 13.63% ownership ratio. While the offer is light, it will likely succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a 7.1% minority acceptance rate. 

Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct

By David Blennerhassett

  • After being granted due diligence, Newmont (NEM US) firmed an all-scrip Offer on the 15 May for Newcrest (NCM AU) at 0.400 new Newmont shares for each Newcrest share held. 
  • The Offer, by way of a Scheme, permits Newcrest to pay a special franked dividend of up to $US1.10/share on top of the Offer terms. 
  • The Scheme Booklet has now been lodged with ASIC. Newcrest shareholders vote on the transaction on the 13 October. The record date for the special dividend is the 19 October.

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  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
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