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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

May 03
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Apple , Meta Platforms (Facebook), Amazon.com Inc, NVIDIA Corp, Lions Gate Entertainment , Intel Corp, Baidu, SK Telecom, ActiveOps, Tyler Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China
  • If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.
  • Amazon 1Q’25 Update
  • Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG
  • [Alert] Buy Lionsgate Entertainment
  • Intel Slashes Forecasts and Jobs—Is This the Beginning of the End or a Comeback Story?
  • Baidu’s AI Shake-Up: Can ERNIE 4.5 Turbo Outmaneuver DeepSeek & Alibaba?
  • Biggest Cyberattack in SK Telecom’s History – Likely to Lead to Major Management Changes
  • Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 24/04/2025
  • Will Tyler Technologies’ Bold AI Investments Redefine the Future of Public Sector Innovation?

Apple Mar-25 Inline, June Slightly Weak as Tariffs Hit Margins, Supplychain Reshuffling Out of China

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 2Q25 small 2% beat. Products revenue (iPhone, Mac, etc) up 3% YoY. Services up 12%. Jun-25: low- to mid-single digit revenue growth YoY (inline), 100bps hit to margins or US$900m. 
  • Good effort to articulate supply chain reshuffle for products sold in US: iPhone from India, the rest from Vietnam. Beyond June, no quantification of impact on costs and demand. 
  • Despite low 5-8% EPS growth, the stock is expensive due to steady Services growth and large cash returns to shareholders. Trading at 29x FY25 EPS, 27x FY26. 

If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I’d Buy Meta.

By Fallacy Alarm

  • The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.

  • It would be a new computing platform that would by far surpass everything that we have seen in personal and mobile computing.

  • AI would be liberated from cyberspace to real space. Instead of shifting bits and bytes around, it would be moving physical objects.

Amazon 1Q’25 Update

By MBI Deep Dives

  • While Amazon’s 3P business usually grows faster than 1P, both 1P and 3P retail business grew at similar rate in 1Q’25.
  • Ads revenue continued its momentum at 19% growth YoY which was higher than both Google and Meta.
  • After growing at ~19% YoY for the last three consecutive quarters, AWS growth decelerated this quarter to 17%.

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

By Nicolas Baratte

  • What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
  • At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
  • Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  

[Alert] Buy Lionsgate Entertainment

By Richard Howe

  • On a sum-of-the-parts basis, LION and STRZ are worth significantly more than is reflected in LGF.A’s stock price.

  • At the close today, investors could buy 1 share of Lionsgate Entertainment (LGF.A) for $8.90. On May 6, that investor will receive 1.12 shares of LION and 1.12 shares of STRZ.

  • I estimate LION is worth $11 and STRZ is worth $1.71. As such, it looks like there is ~60% upside

Intel Slashes Forecasts and Jobs—Is This the Beginning of the End or a Comeback Story?

By Baptista Research

  • Intel’s first-quarter results for 2025 painted a mixed picture, marked by a modest financial beat but overshadowed by weak forward guidance and deep-rooted structural challenges.
  • Under the newly appointed CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took charge just five weeks ago, the company reported adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $12.7 billion—both surpassing Wall Street expectations.
  • Gross margins reached 39.2%, higher than the guided 36%, buoyed by stronger-than-expected sales of Xeon and Raptor Lake chips.

Baidu’s AI Shake-Up: Can ERNIE 4.5 Turbo Outmaneuver DeepSeek & Alibaba?

By Baptista Research

  • Baidu is intensifying its AI initiatives with the launch of ERNIE 4.5 Turbo and ERNIE X1 Turbo, aiming to solidify its position in China’s competitive AI landscape.
  • These models boast enhanced multimodal capabilities and are priced significantly lower than competitors, with ERNIE 4.5 Turbo costing just 1% of GPT-4.5’s price.
  • In a strategic shift, Baidu plans to open-source ERNIE 4.5 by June 30, 2025, and has made its ERNIE Bot free for individual users.

Biggest Cyberattack in SK Telecom’s History – Likely to Lead to Major Management Changes

By Douglas Kim

  • SK Telecom experienced the biggest cyberattack in its history in April which is likely to result in a major shakeup of its management team. 
  • We estimate SK Telecom could lose 1 million+ mobile service customers. Given its ARPU of 29,355 won per month, this would represent lost annual revenue of nearly 352 billion won. 
  • This massive cyberattack could cost SK Telecom more than 1 trillion won in a combination of lost revenue and additional commission/advertising necessary to attract new customers. 

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 24/04/2025

By Hybridan

  • The provider of Decision Intelligence software for service operations, provided an update on trading for the year ended 31 March 2025.
  • Group revenue is expected to have increased by 13% or 15% on a constant currency basis, to approximately £30.4m, reflecting upsell of the latest iterations of its Decision Intelligence software and the successful go live with several major new customers.
  • SaaS revenues increased by approximately 13%, or 14% on a constant currency basis, up from 8% growth in the prior year. 

Will Tyler Technologies’ Bold AI Investments Redefine the Future of Public Sector Innovation?

By Baptista Research

  • Tyler Technologies, a leader in providing integrated software solutions for the public sector, reported its first quarter 2025 financial results revealing both strengths and challenges.
  • The company achieved a 10.3% year over-year revenue growth to $565.2 million, driven by a robust increase in subscriptions revenue, which climbed by 19.7%.
  • Notably, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) revenues grew 21%, marking continuous growth in this area for 17 consecutive quarters.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, Starz, Procter & Gamble Co, Whirlpool Corp, Comcast Corp Class A, Lifeway Foods, DoorDash , Kayou, Pepsico Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops
  • Starz RemainCo Deep Dive
  • Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?
  • Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?
  • Comcast: Will The Management’s Focus on Wireless Expansion and Converged Offerings Help Continue Its Market-Beating Run?
  • Strategic Reviews, Company Sales, and Litigation: Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas
  • DoorDash Makes a Bold $3.6 Billion Move: Is Deliveroo the Missing Piece for Global Domination?
  • Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs
  • Meritage Homes: Partnerships & Realtor Engagement to Enhance Market Reach & Sales Effectiveness!
  • PepsiCo: Can Its New Innovation-Driven Playbook Rewrite the Rules of Snack & Beverage Success?

StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)’s Stub Ops

By David Blennerhassett

  • Yes, I agree with Travis Lundy that the ¥6tn headline price tag for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) backs out a ~6x forward EBITDA for the unlisted stub ops.
  • Preceding my comments on the Toyota Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Starz RemainCo Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Lions Gate Entertainment will spin off its 87.2% stake in its studio business (Lionsgate Studios, ticker “LION”) from its Starz media networks division, creating two independent public companies, on May 6, 2025.

  • The RemainCo will be named Starz and trade under the ticker STRZ.

  • Starz is a premium subscription video service that operates both a traditional premium cable channel and a modern streaming platform (OTT).

Procter & Gamble (P&G) Looking To Turbocharge Retail Reach Through Channel Diversification But Will It Work?

By Baptista Research

  • Procter & Gamble’s recent earnings results present a mixed picture of achievements and challenges.
  • The company’s organic sales for the third quarter grew by 1%, which indicates modest growth.
  • This increase was broadly underpinned by pricing strategies that added one percentage point to organic sales growth, while product volume and mix remained consistent with the prior year.

Whirlpool Corporation: Will The North American Market Dynamics Reflect Its Capability To Adapt To & Capitalize On Market Changes?

By Baptista Research

  • Whirlpool Corporation has demonstrated a mixed financial performance in its latest earnings report, reflecting strategic advantages and challenges in the current macroeconomic environment.
  • Organic growth of 2% marked a modest improvement, driven largely by strong performance in its Smart Design Asia Global and Major Domestic Appliance Asia sectors.
  • The company achieved an EBIT margin of nearly 6%, reflecting successful pricing strategies and cost reductions, which helped weather macroeconomic headwinds.

Comcast: Will The Management’s Focus on Wireless Expansion and Converged Offerings Help Continue Its Market-Beating Run?

By Baptista Research

  • Comcast Corporation’s latest earnings offered insights into both the opportunities and challenges the company faces in various business segments.
  • On the positive side, Comcast highlighted robust performance in several growth areas, particularly in residential broadband, wireless, and theme parks.
  • The strategic shift towards these growth segments is a central part of the company’s business model.

Strategic Reviews, Company Sales, and Litigation: Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas

By Special Situation Investments

  • Lifeway Foods is likely to be sold to Danone, with a potential 14%+ upside, following board changes.
  • Sage Therapeutics rejected Biogen’s offer, initiating a strategic review, indicating potential for a higher acquisition premium.
  • Liquidia’s patent lawsuit win enables drug commercialization, expected to gain market share and significantly increase valuation.

DoorDash Makes a Bold $3.6 Billion Move: Is Deliveroo the Missing Piece for Global Domination?

By Baptista Research

  • DoorDash has been making significant headlines with its proposed $3.6 billion acquisition offer for UK-based Deliveroo, signaling its continued ambition to expand beyond the U.S. market.
  • The deal, offering Deliveroo shareholders £1.80 ($2.40) per share, would value Deliveroo at approximately GBP2.7 billion, or around $3.6 billion.
  • Deliveroo’s board has indicated that it would be “minded to recommend” the offer if a firm bid is made under those terms.

Kayou Pre-IPO: Financials and Other Metrics Outputs

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Kayou Inc., a founder led IP-themed trading card company, plans to go public in Hong Kong. The company’s financial profile and profitability are unique among its mid-cap peers.
  • The company reported 2024 revenue of RMB10,057m, up 278% y/y, driven by an increase in sales of trading cards, corresponding to an increase in their sales volume.
  • Kayou Inc. appears to have a decent runway for growth. Companies with both “elite” gross profit margins and higher revenue growth would tend to trade at higher multiples.

Meritage Homes: Partnerships & Realtor Engagement to Enhance Market Reach & Sales Effectiveness!

By Baptista Research

  • Meritage Homes showed a resilient performance in the first quarter of 2025, balancing the challenging macroeconomic landscape with strategic operational adjustments.
  • Despite encountering a slower-than-expected start to the year, the company managed to achieve its second-highest first-quarter orders and closings in its history, reflecting its adaptability and strategic pivot towards a 60-day closing-ready inventory.
  • The company sold nearly 3,900 homes in Q1, achieving a 22% home closing gross margin and $1.3 billion in home closing revenue.

PepsiCo: Can Its New Innovation-Driven Playbook Rewrite the Rules of Snack & Beverage Success?

By Baptista Research

  • PepsiCo’s recent earnings highlighted several critical elements investors should consider, providing an insightful overview of both the opportunities and challenges facing the company.
  • On the positive side, the company’s international operations are clearly a growth engine, with markets outside the U.S. continuing to show robust performance.
  • The international segment recorded substantial growth in the quarter despite macroeconomic uncertainties in some regions like China and Mexico.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Financials: ICICI Bank Ltd, Banco del Bajio SA, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Health In Tech, Kobo Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels
  • Mexican Banks – Looking Beyond Trump Policies, We See Value in Smaller Caps
  • Singapore Stocks Most Net Bought by Institutions in April
  • HIT: Newly Formed Advisory Board and Advisor With Extensive Public Affairs Experience Appear Timely
  • Kobo Resources Inc – Mining Monthly: April Edition

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
  • Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int’l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
  • 200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won’t.

Mexican Banks – Looking Beyond Trump Policies, We See Value in Smaller Caps

By Victor Galliano

  • Aside from Trump’s tariff policies, Mexican banks are under pressure from government to deliver on more competitive lending rates, with fintech challengers Nubank and MercadoLibre’s MercadoPago gaining traction in Mexico
  • Despite these challenges, 1Q25 results were sound and the bank sector participated in Mexican bolsa rally in April; yet we believe there is selective attractive value there
  • We apply our scorecard – which assesses balance sheet strength, returns, credit quality and valuations – that is weighted to arrive at our investment picks; BanBajio and BanRegio stand out

Singapore Stocks Most Net Bought by Institutions in April

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions net sold S$73M in Singapore stocks, with STI Banks experiencing S$701M in net institutional outflow in April.
  • Singtel recorded the highest net institutional inflow, with the Telecommunications Sector booking S$522M net inflow in April.
  • REITs saw S$74M net institutional outflow, but Frasers Centrepoint Trust led net inflow relative to market cap.

HIT: Newly Formed Advisory Board and Advisor With Extensive Public Affairs Experience Appear Timely

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • As HIT continues to expand services and enhance its platform, the company aims to broaden its target market, as it believes that organizations of all sizes can benefit from its AI-driven technology platform, which is designed to streamline and facilitate the process of researching and obtaining healthcare insurance.
  • HIT began development of a large-group third-party AI-powered underwriting solutions for mid-sized and larger businesses and, in 1Q25, delivered solutions to large employers, including one that employs 1k+ people.

Kobo Resources Inc – Mining Monthly: April Edition

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • The metals and mining market showed a fourth straight month of strong gains in April on the back of the escalating trade tensions.
  • • In April, gold was up 5.6%, silver was down 4.2%, and copper was down 9.6%.
  • The equities outperformed the commodities, with the GDX up 6.5%, GDXJ up 7.3%, and SIL up 3.3%.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Otsuka Holdings, Gilead Sciences, Theratechnologies, Kronos Bio, Laurus Labs, Bristol Myers Squibb Co, Chemed Corp, Penumbra , Resmed Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Rexulti Drives 1Q25 Result; Label Expansion And Acquisition Augur Well
  • Gilead Sciences: Cell Therapy Adoption & Expansion to Strengthen Its Competitive Position n Its Domain!
  • Analyzing Active Quick Pitches: Takeovers, Tender Offers, Strategic Reviews and More
  • KRON Acquisition by Kevin Tang: Analyzing the CVR Structure and Potential Shareholder Value Outcomes
  • Laurus Labs Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification and Strategic R&D Drive Growth
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb: Will Its Focus On Innovation In New Therapeutic Domains Pay Off?
  • Chemed Corporation: Expansion into New Markets & New Locations For A Competitive Edge!
  • Weekly Financial Insights: KRON Buyout, SAGE Earnings, BOOM Performance and More
  • Penumbra Inc.: Can Its Innovation & Product Pipeline Foster Long-Term Growth & Competitiveness?
  • ResMed Corporation: GLP-1 Demand Generation Strategy to Expand Customer Base & Strengthen Their Position!

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Rexulti Drives 1Q25 Result; Label Expansion And Acquisition Augur Well

By Tina Banerjee

  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) reported 12% YoY growth in revenue in 1Q25, as pharmaceuticals sales grew backed by a 35% YoY growth in Rexulti revenue to ¥75.7B.
  • The company reiterated 2025 guidance. Higher costs to dent margins with subdued sales of Lonsurf, Jynarque.
  • Indication expansion of Rexulti and Araris acquisition augur well for the company from a mid to long term perspective.

Gilead Sciences: Cell Therapy Adoption & Expansion to Strengthen Its Competitive Position n Its Domain!

By Baptista Research

  • Gilead Sciences delivered a mixed performance in their latest financial results, reflecting both strengths and challenges across their portfolio.
  • The company reported overall product sales of $6.6 billion for the first quarter, a 1% decline year-over-year, primarily attributable to a significant decrease in sales of Veklury, a COVID-19 treatment, which was down 45%.
  • The core business, however, excluding Veklury, demonstrated growth with a 4% increase, driven largely by their HIV segment and liver disease treatments.

Analyzing Active Quick Pitches: Takeovers, Tender Offers, Strategic Reviews and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Theratechnologies (THTX) received takeover offers from Future Pak, with a $3.51/share cash offer plus a CVR worth $0.99/share.
  • Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY:MC) plans to repurchase 9% of shares at €26.5/share, with priority for tenders below 375 shares.
  • Lensar (LNSR) is being acquired by Alcon for $14/share cash plus a CVR worth up to $2.75/share.

KRON Acquisition by Kevin Tang: Analyzing the CVR Structure and Potential Shareholder Value Outcomes

By Special Situation Investments

  • KRON is being acquired at $0.57/share plus a CVR, below expected net cash of $1/share.
  • The CVR includes four components, with the “Additional Closing Net Cash” being the primary potential value source.
  • Management’s 27% ownership suggests deal approval, despite potential risks and uncertainties in CVR payout assumptions.

Laurus Labs Q4 FY25 Update: Diversification and Strategic R&D Drive Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Laurus Labs (LAURUS IN) achieved a 122% YoY increase in PAT for FY25, driven by strong CDMO execution and higher margins.
  • The company is accelerating its transformation from an ARV-heavy model to a diversified CDMO/CMO business, with growing client base and strong pipeline visibility.
  • Laurus’ focus on small molecule and bio-CDMO segments, supported by strategic investments in new capacities, positions the company for continued growth, with improved asset turnover and higher operating leverage.

Bristol-Myers Squibb: Will Its Focus On Innovation In New Therapeutic Domains Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Bristol-Myers Squibb’s first quarter results for 2025 reflect a blend of growth and strategic repositioning, highlighting both achievements and challenges facing the company in the ongoing fiscal year.
  • The company reported total revenues of approximately $11.2 billion, an outcome supported by substantial performance in its growth portfolio, comprising prominent products such as its immuno-oncology (IO) portfolio, Breyanzi, Reblozyl, and Camzyos, amidst a backdrop of generics impacting their legacy brands.
  • Their growth segment showcased an increase of 18% in sales, though offset by legacy products’ decline due to generic competition and regulatory factors like the Medicare Part D redesign.

Chemed Corporation: Expansion into New Markets & New Locations For A Competitive Edge!

By Baptista Research

  • Chemed Corporation’s first-quarter results for 2025 provide a multifaceted view of the company’s performance across its businesses.
  • Within its VITAS Healthcare unit, Chemed reported a solid overall performance, marked by a 15.1% increase in net revenue to $407.4 million compared to the same period the previous year.
  • This growth was fueled primarily by an 11.9% rise in days of care and a geographically weighted average increase in Medicare reimbursement rates.

Weekly Financial Insights: KRON Buyout, SAGE Earnings, BOOM Performance and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Kronos Bio (KRON) signed an acquisition agreement at $0.57/share plus a CVR, below expected net cash value.
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) reported Q1 revenue growth, ongoing strategic review, and management urged to cut costs or sell.
  • DMC Global (BOOM) exceeded Q1 guidance but faces uncertain outlook due to tariffs and demand destruction.

Penumbra Inc.: Can Its Innovation & Product Pipeline Foster Long-Term Growth & Competitiveness?

By Baptista Research

  • Penumbra, Inc. reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, demonstrating both positive and negative aspects of its performance.
  • On the positive side, the company reported total revenue of $324.1 million, marking a year over-year growth of 16.3% on a reported basis and 16.9% on a constant currency basis.
  • This growth was driven by robust performance in the U.S. thrombectomy business, which saw a 25% increase in revenue to $187.9 million.

ResMed Corporation: GLP-1 Demand Generation Strategy to Expand Customer Base & Strengthen Their Position!

By Baptista Research

  • ResMed Inc.’s Q3 Fiscal Year 2025 results reflected both robust performance and strategic plans poised for long term growth, giving investors a mixed but intriguing picture of the company’s current standing and future potential.
  • The company reported strong financial results, with an 11% increase in non-GAAP net income and a 13% boost in diluted earnings per share, reaching $2.37.
  • Revenue rose by 8% on a headline basis and 9% in constant currency terms, reflecting comprehensive growth across products and markets.

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May 03
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Nidec Corp, Adani Enterprises, Southwest Airlines Co, Jacobs Solutions , Knight Transportation, Masco Corp, Alaska Air Group, Norfolk Southern, Otis Worldwide , Republic Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nidec (6594 JP): Low Exposure to Trade War
  • Adani Enterprises: Airports, Green Energy, and Industrial Projects Are the Key Growth Drivers
  • Southwest Airlines: Expansion into New Distribution Channels Like Expedia & Google Flights To Boost Customer Base & Revenue Over Time!
  • Jacobs Solutions Is Tanking On DOGE & Tariff Fears — Why The Market May Be Getting It Wrong!
  • Knight-Swift Transportation: Is Its Strategic Positioning & Brand Integration The Right Move to Strengthen Its Market Position?
  • How Masco Corporation is Quietly Building an E-Commerce Business That Could Redefine Its Future!
  • Alaska Air Group Eyes Massive Cost Synergies from Hawaiian Deal—Is a Profit Surge Coming?
  • Norfolk Southern Corporation Wins Big-Thanks to Bold Customer Service Reboot!
  • Will Otis Worldwide Corporation’s Modernization & Repair Boom Unlock Explosive Revenue Growth?
  • Republic Services: The 5 Factors That Could Derail Its Performance In 2025!

Nidec (6594 JP): Low Exposure to Trade War

By Scott Foster

  • Geographically diversified production, gearing to growth technologies, and consolidation of operations should support sales and profits in a difficult political and economic environment.
  • Negatives largely in the price, but uncertainty over tariffs, exchange rates, recession, and the outcome of the takeover bid for Makino Milling also remains to be seen.
  • The shares have rebounded from their recent sell-off but are still selling at only 15x projected EPS for FY Mar-26, the lowest P/E ratio in more than a decade.

Adani Enterprises: Airports, Green Energy, and Industrial Projects Are the Key Growth Drivers

By Rahul Jain

  • Adani Enterprises’ consolidated EBITDA rose by 26% to Rs16,722 crore in FY25, supported by expansion across key infrastructure and energy businesses.
  • Focus areas include scaling airports, green hydrogen production, solar manufacturing, data centers, and stabilized annuity cash flows from roads.
  • Key risks are project execution delays, regulatory oversight, high leverage, ESG scrutiny etc.

Southwest Airlines: Expansion into New Distribution Channels Like Expedia & Google Flights To Boost Customer Base & Revenue Over Time!

By Baptista Research

  • Southwest Airlines demonstrated a mixed performance in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting both progress in strategic initiatives and challenges faced due to the macroeconomic environment.
  • The company’s revenue strategy transformation seems to be bearing fruit, as indicated by record operating revenues of $6.4 billion, driven by a 3.5% increase in revenue per available seat mile (RASM).
  • Key initiatives contributing to this include amendments to their agreement with Chase, enhancements to the Rapid Rewards program, and expanded distribution channels like Expedia.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Jacobs Solutions Is Tanking On DOGE & Tariff Fears — Why The Market May Be Getting It Wrong!

By Baptista Research

  • Jacobs Solutions has been making headlines recently as its stock took a hit, down nearly 11% this year, far underperforming the broader industrial sector’s decline.
  • Two major factors have fueled investor concerns: the impact of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiatives and renewed trade war risks under President Donald Trump.
  • Yet, a deeper dive into the company’s developments suggests that the market may be overreacting.

Knight-Swift Transportation: Is Its Strategic Positioning & Brand Integration The Right Move to Strengthen Its Market Position?

By Baptista Research

  • Knight-Swift Transportation’s first-quarter 2025 results indicate a mixed performance amidst an uncertain market environment, highlighting both strengths and challenges faced by the company.
  • On the positive side, the company experienced an increase in overall revenue, excluding fuel surcharge, by 1.2%, and a significant improvement in adjusted operating income by 68.2%.
  • This was partially due to cost management initiatives and improved productivity.

How Masco Corporation is Quietly Building an E-Commerce Business That Could Redefine Its Future!

By Baptista Research

  • Masco Corporation’s recent earnings for the first quarter of 2025 revealed several key aspects of its performance and future outlook, marked by both challenges and areas of strength.
  • On the positive side, the company continues to drive innovation across its strong portfolio of brands, such as Delta Faucet and Behr, contributing to its solid reputation in the repair and remodel industry.
  • New product launches and awards highlight the company’s commitment to maintaining its competitive edge.

Alaska Air Group Eyes Massive Cost Synergies from Hawaiian Deal—Is a Profit Surge Coming?

By Baptista Research

  • The Alaska Air Group reported a challenging first quarter of 2025, with a GAAP net loss of $166 million and an adjusted net loss of $95 million, excluding special items and fuel hedge adjustments.
  • This represents a difficult start to the year primarily due to a divergence in air travel demand from the robust levels seen in prior months.
  • However, the company is committed to its strategic initiative, Alaska Accelerate, which focuses on long-term value creation and profitability.

Norfolk Southern Corporation Wins Big-Thanks to Bold Customer Service Reboot!

By Baptista Research

  • Norfolk Southern Corporation’s latest earnings for Q1 2025 outlined key aspects of its operational and financial performance amidst challenging conditions, including adverse weather impacts.
  • The company’s approach was marked by resilience and focus on productivity improvements, despite external uncertainties such as economic conditions and potential tariff impacts.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Will Otis Worldwide Corporation’s Modernization & Repair Boom Unlock Explosive Revenue Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Otis Worldwide Corporation has reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, revealing a mixed performance across its segments.
  • These results reflect the ongoing challenges in the New Equipment segment, but also showcase the resilience of its Service business.
  • Positives from the results include the solid performance of Otis’ Service segment, which saw an organic sales growth of 4% and a maintenance portfolio that expanded by 4%.

Republic Services: The 5 Factors That Could Derail Its Performance In 2025!

By Baptista Research

  • Republic Services, Inc.’s first-quarter 2025 results showcase several strengths and challenges, painting a comprehensive picture of the company’s current status and future prospects.
  • The company reported a solid revenue growth of 4% and a notable adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%, which translated into an expanded EBITDA margin of 140 basis points to 31.6%.
  • Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.58, and adjusted free cash flow was robust at $727 million.

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May 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Junior Copper Miners: Ecuador Sees M&A Action by China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Junior Copper Miners: Ecuador Sees M&A Action by China
  • Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Surges on Key Tech Earnings
  • #139 India Insight: Coke Grows in Q1, Apple Ups India Output, RBI Names New IndusInd Heads
  • Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Rally for 8th Day Although Apple and Amazon Miss After-Mkt
  • India Two-Wheeler OEMs – April EV Sales Dip Post-Policy Shift; Near-Term Trends Under Watch
  • The Effects of New Tariff on Chinese E Commerce

Junior Copper Miners: Ecuador Sees M&A Action by China

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • In April a Chinese buyer made an offer for Ross Beaty controlled Lumina Gold (LUM CN), an Ecuador gold project. 
  • One of our top picks Solaris Resources (SLS CN) surged on the back of this news as it indicates Ecuador is open for business after the re-election of President Noboa.
  • Copper prices have remained resilient despite ongoing “USA vs the World” trade war.

Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Surges on Key Tech Earnings

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nasdaq rose 1.5% as Microsoft, Meta, and Apple earnings eased tariff fears; jobless claims rose; trade tensions showed signs of easing.
  • Apple beat Q2 earnings with $1.64 EPS and $95.4B revenue, driven by strong iPhone sales, authorized $100B buyback.
  • Mitsui & Co. forecasts a 14% drop in consolidated net profit to 770 billion yen, driven by declining iron ore and coking coal prices and yen appreciation.

#139 India Insight: Coke Grows in Q1, Apple Ups India Output, RBI Names New IndusInd Heads

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The Maha Kumbh Mela boosted Coca Cola Co (KO US)‘s India sales, driving double-digit volume growth in Q1, with over 180 million servings consumed.
  • Amid escalating US-China trade tensions, Apple (AAPL US) accelerates its iPhone production in India, opening new factories and preparing for record shipments.
  • RBI has approved an interim executive committee to manage Indusind Bank (IIB IN) following CEO Sumant Kathpalia’s exit, with Soumitra Sen and Anil Rao overseeing operations.

Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Rally for 8th Day Although Apple and Amazon Miss After-Mkt

By Andrew Jackson

  • Another strong showing for tech and AI names after Meta’s big capex plans price in.
  • Solid print for HVAC major Carrier should set positive tone for Daikin.
  • Hokkaido Electric Power Co nightmare squeeze redux? +14.8% yesterday post-earnings.

India Two-Wheeler OEMs – April EV Sales Dip Post-Policy Shift; Near-Term Trends Under Watch

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • EV 2W Sales Slide 30% in April: Post-March correction driven by subsidy cuts and seasonal softening; YoY momentum still +39%.
  • Subsidy Cuts Reset the Playing Field: PM e-Drive scheme slashes EV support, testing price elasticity and OEM pricing strategy.
  • OEMs at a Crossroads: With volume volatility rising, the next few months will reveal who can defend share—and who can’t.

The Effects of New Tariff on Chinese E Commerce

By J Capital Research

  • How will Chinese e-commerce companies survive the new tariff regime? We believe at least one of these companies will be hobbled.

  • Coming elimination on May 2 of the de minimis rule, which previously avoided tariffs on imported packages worth $800 or less, is perhaps the most immediately impactful change in trade policy that has already affected prices.

  • The cancellation of the de minimis rule (intended to permit individuals to import products tariff-free for personal use but which has been widely applied to all low-value products) took effect for a single day on April 2, 2025, was subsequently removed, and will be reinstated on May 2.

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May 02
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): National Australia Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers
  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 17th): AIA, Tencent, Wuxi Biologics
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 25th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Wesfarmers.

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 17th): AIA, Tencent, Wuxi Biologics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 18th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).

Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
  • We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
  • We highlight flows of Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.

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May 02
0

Daily Brief ECM: Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China
  • Pre-IPO Fujian Lemo IoT Technology – The Outlook for Growth and Profit Margins Is Not Optimistic
  • Suzhou Ribo Life Science (瑞博生物) Pre-IPO Quick View: Scarcity of SiRNA Player

Kayou IPO Preview: 250%+ Growth + FCF of $500M+ in 2024, Leader in the Trading Card Sector in China

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Kayou Inc., early-mover in the trading card industry in China, filed for an IPO in Hong Kong. The company sells trading cards, toys, figures, badges, pens, and notebooks, among others.
  • Kayou Inc. received capital of ~$135M from HongShan Capital and Tencent Holdings in 2022. Mr. Li Qibin founded trading card and collectible toy firm in 2011.
  • Founder led company has delivered 250%+ growth and FCF of $500M+ in 2024. The market opportunity is large enough to support sustained high growth for Kayou for several years.

Pre-IPO Fujian Lemo IoT Technology – The Outlook for Growth and Profit Margins Is Not Optimistic

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Lemo increased the number of massage equipment in the cinemas significantly, but the transaction value has reflected its ineffective business expansion. The Company may have already encountered a growth ceiling.
  • Lemo’s business model requires high occupancy fee and maintenance costs, which is hard to decrease. However, if revenue growth slows down, Lemo’s profits would be “eroded” due to high costs.
  • In Sep. 2024, valuation of Lemo reached RMB750 million. We think valuation of Lemo could be lower than that of peers in the future due to concerns on the outlook. 

Suzhou Ribo Life Science (瑞博生物) Pre-IPO Quick View: Scarcity of SiRNA Player

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Suzhou Ribo Life is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CICC and Citi are the deal sponsors.
  • Ribo Life is a world leading company in the area of siRNA research.
  • The company’s RBD4059 is potentially the first in class siRNA drug for thrombotic diseases.

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May 02
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid
  • Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500
  • Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62
  • Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (March and April 2025)
  • Lee Myung-Hee Transfers All of Her 10.2% Stake In Shinsegae to Her Daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung
  • BBVA’s Hostile Offer for Sabadell Moves into Final Phase: The Catalan Conundrum
  • Starz RemainCo Deep Dive

Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyota Industries is a relatively complicated business. It owns lots of shares of Toyota and other companies. It has a financing business, and runs ¥500+bn of EBITDA.
  • As of 31 March 2025, the “Enterprise Value” of the Operating and Financing Business together was about ¥2.2trln. The “Asset Ownership Business” was at ¥2.8trln (1yr ago it was ¥4trln).
  • If you think buying the Operating Business at 6x EBITDA is appropriate, that means the Asset Ownership Business block buy gets done at 31-March-2025 prices. Worth thinking about.

Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500

By Travis Lundy

  • A Nikkei article today suggested Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) would overbid Yageo’s dramatic 20% overbid of Minebea’s early ¥4,500 overbid of Yageo’s initial ¥4,300 bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). 
  • Now the news is out. MinebeaMitsumi has bid ¥5,500. Shibaura Electronics has endorsed. This is bang-in-line with the expected path. The question is now YAGEO’s overbid, expected 7 May.
  • If I were YAGEO, I would wait for Shibaura’s earnings a couple of days later, then overbid by ¥100-150 and go for 35 days. There’s optionality there.

Meilan Airport (357 HK): Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$10.62

By Arun George

  • Haikou Meilan International Airport Company entered an SPA with Hainan Island Construction (600515 CH) to sell its Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) 50.19% stake at RMB9.85 per share (HK$10.62).
  • The SPA completion requires several regulatory approvals, which are low-risk, particularly as Hainan SASAC is the largest shareholder of the offeror and the seller.
  • Under Rule 26.1 of the Takeovers Code, upon completion, the offeror will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$10.62 per share. The MGO price is final.  

Hainan Meilan Intl Airport (357 HK): Hainan SASAC’s Left/Right Pocket MGO

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK) has announced a potential change of control, via the domestic shares. 
  • Haikou Meilan’s major shareholder, Hainan Airport Industrial, has entered into a SPA with Hainan Island (600515 CH) to sell its 50.19% stake, the completion of which triggers an unconditional MGO.
  • The H-share Offer price will be HK$10.62/share. That’s not compelling;  but it’s not meant to be as Hainan Airport Industrial and Hainan Island Construction are ultimately controlled by Hainan SASAC. 

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time

By Arun George

  • Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has revised its tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY 5,500, representing a 1.9% premium over Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY 5,400 hostile offer. 
  • There are factors supporting Yageo again outbidding Minebea, and Yageo calling it quits. A revised Yageo could potentially touch JPY6,000, 40% higher than its first offer.
  • The shares are trading 7.1% above Minebea’s offer, factoring in a fair chunk of the upside from an ongoing bidding war. Take profits as risk/reward looks unattractive. 

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (March and April 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in March and April 2025.
  • There were 40 companies in the Korean stock market that announced share buybacks in the past two months. On average, the share buyback announcements represented 1.7% of outstanding shares.
  • Astute traders should put alert signals on share buyback announcements in Korea with more than 3% outstanding shares. 

Lee Myung-Hee Transfers All of Her 10.2% Stake In Shinsegae to Her Daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung

By Douglas Kim

  • On 30 April, Lee Myung-Hee (Chairwoman of Shinsegae Group) decided to transfer all of her 10.2% stake in Shinsegae (004170 KS) as a gift to her daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung. 
  • After this gift, Chung Yoo-Kyung’s ownership in Shinsegae will rise from 18.95% to 29.16%.
  • We are positive on this share transfer of 10.2% stake in Shinsegae from mother (Lee Myung-Hee) to her daughter Chung Yoo-Kyung on the share price impact on Shinsegae.

BBVA’s Hostile Offer for Sabadell Moves into Final Phase: The Catalan Conundrum

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • CNMC approved BBVA’s bid with mild SME lending and branch access commitments. The offer now enters Phase 3, with government review and CNMV filing expected by late Q2 2025.
  • Sabadell shares trade 6.7% above the offer value, suggesting market expectation of an improved bid or deal failure. The gross spread is negative despite regulatory momentum.
  • BBVA’s CET1 would drop to 11.99% under current terms. It can raise the cash offer by €0.12–0.17/share and still stay above 11.5%, allowing room to improve the deal.

Starz RemainCo Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Lions Gate Entertainment will spin off its 87.2% stake in its studio business (Lionsgate Studios, ticker “LION”) from its Starz media networks division, creating two independent public companies, on May 6, 2025.

  • The RemainCo will be named Starz and trade under the ticker STRZ.

  • Starz is a premium subscription video service that operates both a traditional premium cable channel and a modern streaming platform (OTT).

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May 02
0

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Tax Hikes Disrupt Housing Market and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK: Tax Hikes Disrupt Housing Market
  • MAGA Will It Work?: A REALITY CHECK
  • Finance Minister Choi Quits and Lee Jae-Myung’s Fate Remains Uncertain Post Supreme Court Ruling
  • Flash : Egypt & Kuwait, May 1st 2025
  • 2025 First Quarter Letter to Investors
  • Japan: Policy Rate Held At 0.5% (Consensus 0.5%) in May-25
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 2 May 2025

UK: Tax Hikes Disrupt Housing Market

By Phil Rush

  • Domestic tax hikes are more substantial than US tariffs in April, so the impact should not be forgotten, even if the UK government wants to blame any damage on Trump.
  • Frontrunning April’s stamp duty increases stoked transactions and lending, and may take at least a few months to recover afterwards. Resilient approvals are reassuring.
  • Higher transaction costs probably won’t break expectations into a downwards spiral, but are now widely cited as a major hurdle, contributing to slower UK activity growth.

MAGA Will It Work?: A REALITY CHECK

By David Mudd

  • April customs numbers report that tariff collections may double in April; however, at an annualized rate, it would fall well short of the Administration’s promises.
  • The Administration has adjusted its narrative to focus on bringing high-tech manufacturing to the U.S. with more robots than blue-collar line workers.
  • GDP surprisingly declined in the first quarter, indicating a coming recession.  Media focus is on the drag from net exports, but ignores the inventory build and poor consumption numbers.

Finance Minister Choi Quits and Lee Jae-Myung’s Fate Remains Uncertain Post Supreme Court Ruling

By Douglas Kim

  • The Finance Minister Choi Sang-Mok resigned as the National Assembly was trying to vote to impeach him just before Choi resuming role as South Korea’s acting President once again. 
  • The Supreme Court “reversed and remanded” the case of Lee Jae-Myung, the leading candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, for being guilty of violating the Public Official Election Act. 
  • All in all, given the uncertain political landscape, this could result in more overseas institutional investors in the Korean stock market to sit out longer on the sidelines. 

Flash : Egypt & Kuwait, May 1st 2025

By Denis Collot

  • For many coming here in the Gulf and UAE in particular, security is an important part of the discussion. Much has been said about the climate in UK and London, where even in the best neighbourhoods, walking while chatting on the phone or taking a picture is taking a big risk.
  • Recently, the police raided a flat in the city where they discovered over 50 000 phones in various stages of dismantling, hacking and all.
  • I also discovered recently bicycle hijacking ! Two guys on a scooter stop a cyclist, threaten him with a hammer and speed away with the bicycle.

2025 First Quarter Letter to Investors

By Massif Capital Research

  • At the current time, we find the rebound in US equity markets increasingly difficult to rationalize.
  • With trade war uncertainty still high, limited new stimulus from tax policy (especially given the high likelihood that no progress on meaningful spending cuts will be achieved), and a patient Fed, there’s little clarity on how growth or earnings can improve enough to justify what were already high valuation levels.
  • Cross-asset signals, such as tighter credit spreads and a falling dollar, highlight a disconnect between market optimism and the administration’s ongoing efforts to address trade imbalances.

Japan: Policy Rate Held At 0.5% (Consensus 0.5%) in May-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The BoJ held the policy rate steady at 0.5%, in line with expectations, while market sentiment shifted more dovishly, reducing the perceived likelihood of further rate hikes.
  • Growth and inflation forecasts for 2025–26 have been revised down, with underlying inflation expected to remain weak and only gradually return to target levels as wage pressures intensify.
  • Despite maintaining a tightening bias, the BoJ’s emphasis on downside risks and its data-dependent approach suggests a slow and cautious path toward further policy normalisation.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 2 May 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Thailand cuts rates again amid weak domestic growth and deteriorating external outlook, diverging from global central bank caution.

  • Japan maintains ultra-loose policy; any rate hikes likely delayed until year-end despite persistent inflation.

  • Strong U.S. investment offsets weak trade balance, but volatility masks real economic trends; concerns grow over fiscal sustainability and reindustrialization feasibility.

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