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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 19
0

Daily Brief United States: Tesla and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

By John Ley

  • A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes. 
  • Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
  • Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses. 

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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief China: Frasers Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Morgan Stanley purchases 50% stake in $380M Frasers Australian warehouse portfolio, expanding its real estate holdings.
  • CapitaLand seeks $380M China Mall REIT listing in Shanghai, showing confidence in China’s retail market.
  • China experiences moderate home price growth in March, with some cities showing signs of recovery after recent slowdowns.

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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Mani Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns
  • Mani (7730 JP): Guidance Reiterated; Dental Loosing Shine And Dented Margins Remain Concerns

The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns

By Aki Matsumoto

  • A benefit of inflation was expected to shift from management that accumulates cash to management that proactively uses cash. However, it’s been used for shareholder returns but less for apex.
  • Hitachi is one of few companies that manage business in disciplined manner and execute the necessary growth investments. This is more result of overseas investor engagement than corporate governance reform.
  • The key to Japanese equities outperformance is whether management can change to mindset that investors want to see “positive investment and the ability to implement measures to expand corporate value.”

Mani (7730 JP): Guidance Reiterated; Dental Loosing Shine And Dented Margins Remain Concerns

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mani Inc (7730 JP) H1FY25 revenue rose 6.5% YoY, mainly driven by surgical segment, eyeless needles segment, while margins remained under pressure.
  • Despite the underperformance of dental segment, management reiterated FY25 guidance. Expecting Yen appreciation against the USD, the company expects just mid-single-digit sales and operating income growth for FY25.
  • Mani shares plunged 5% since it published its H1 results. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.

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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief India: Bharti Airtel, Time Technoplast, NIFTY Index, Vinati Organics and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities
  • The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products
  • NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)
  • The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
  • However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
  • While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).

The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Time Technoplast (TIME IN) holds a dominant position in the industrial packaging sector, with leadership in composite cylinders, IBCs, plastic drums, benefiting from a strong global presence& high entry barriers.
  • TTL is increasingly focusing on higher-margin segments like CNG cylinders, hydrogen storage, and composite products. These initiatives offer significant scalability and margin expansion, setting up strong long-term revenue growth.
  • With strategic R&D investments, TTL is entering emerging sectors like e-mobility (e-rickshaw batteries) and hydrogen fuel cylinders, tapping into new high-growth markets that could diversify revenue and fuel sustainable growth.

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

By Nico Rosti

  • The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
  • Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
  • The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Vinati Organics (VO IN) dominates the global market with a 65% share in ATBS and IBB, offering strong profitability driven by high-demand sectors like water treatment and pharmaceuticals.
  • With a INR570 crore capex investment, Vinati is expanding its ATBS capacity by 50%, diversifying into high-growth segments such as MEHQ, Guaiacol, and Antioxidants, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth.
  • Vinati is strategically increasing its domestic revenue share (45% of FY24 sales), while strengthening its export presence, capitalizing on India’s “Make in India” initiative and reducing currency volatility risks.

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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Time Technoplast, Vinati Organics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products
  • The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

The Beat Ideas- Time Technoplast: Driving Growth Through Innovation & Value-Added Products

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Time Technoplast (TIME IN) holds a dominant position in the industrial packaging sector, with leadership in composite cylinders, IBCs, plastic drums, benefiting from a strong global presence& high entry barriers.
  • TTL is increasingly focusing on higher-margin segments like CNG cylinders, hydrogen storage, and composite products. These initiatives offer significant scalability and margin expansion, setting up strong long-term revenue growth.
  • With strategic R&D investments, TTL is entering emerging sectors like e-mobility (e-rickshaw batteries) and hydrogen fuel cylinders, tapping into new high-growth markets that could diversify revenue and fuel sustainable growth.

The Beat Ideas: Vinati Organics- A Niche Giant in Specialty Chemicals

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Vinati Organics (VO IN) dominates the global market with a 65% share in ATBS and IBB, offering strong profitability driven by high-demand sectors like water treatment and pharmaceuticals.
  • With a INR570 crore capex investment, Vinati is expanding its ATBS capacity by 50%, diversifying into high-growth segments such as MEHQ, Guaiacol, and Antioxidants, positioning itself for long-term revenue growth.
  • Vinati is strategically increasing its domestic revenue share (45% of FY24 sales), while strengthening its export presence, capitalizing on India’s “Make in India” initiative and reducing currency volatility risks.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Bharti Airtel and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
  • However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
  • While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Mani Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Mani (7730 JP): Guidance Reiterated; Dental Loosing Shine And Dented Margins Remain Concerns

Mani (7730 JP): Guidance Reiterated; Dental Loosing Shine And Dented Margins Remain Concerns

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mani Inc (7730 JP) H1FY25 revenue rose 6.5% YoY, mainly driven by surgical segment, eyeless needles segment, while margins remained under pressure.
  • Despite the underperformance of dental segment, management reiterated FY25 guidance. Expecting Yen appreciation against the USD, the company expects just mid-single-digit sales and operating income growth for FY25.
  • Mani shares plunged 5% since it published its H1 results. Investors should avoid Mani due to its uncertain revenue outlook and deteriorating profitability in short-term.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Financials: Frasers Group, Jeju Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio.
  • Jeju Bank: Douzone Bizon Becomes Second Largest Shareholder

Asia Real Estate Tracker (18-Apr-2025): Morgan Stanley buys 50% of Frasers Aussie Shed Portfolio.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Morgan Stanley purchases 50% stake in $380M Frasers Australian warehouse portfolio, expanding its real estate holdings.
  • CapitaLand seeks $380M China Mall REIT listing in Shanghai, showing confidence in China’s retail market.
  • China experiences moderate home price growth in March, with some cities showing signs of recovery after recent slowdowns.

Jeju Bank: Douzone Bizon Becomes Second Largest Shareholder

By Douglas Kim

  • On 18 April, it was reported that Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) will become the second largest shareholder of Jeju Bank (006220 KS).
  • Douzone Bizon invested 57 billion won for a 14.99% stake in Jeju Bank. Through this investment, Douzone will aim to enhance the digital business of Jeju Bank.
  • This deal is likely to positively impact Jeju Bank’s shares as this capital raise is used to further invest in ERP based banking that could further boost its sales. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Tesla , NIFTY Index, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
  • NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)
  • The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns

TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

By John Ley

  • A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes. 
  • Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
  • Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses. 

NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

By Nico Rosti

  • The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
  • Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
  • The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

The Key to Japanese Equity Outperformance Is a Step Beyond Shareholder Returns

By Aki Matsumoto

  • A benefit of inflation was expected to shift from management that accumulates cash to management that proactively uses cash. However, it’s been used for shareholder returns but less for apex.
  • Hitachi is one of few companies that manage business in disciplined manner and execute the necessary growth investments. This is more result of overseas investor engagement than corporate governance reform.
  • The key to Japanese equities outperformance is whether management can change to mindset that investors want to see “positive investment and the ability to implement measures to expand corporate value.”

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Apr 19
0

Most Read: PDD Holdings, Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index, Northern Star Resources, Fast Retailing, Suzhou Kematek, Nexchip Semiconductor , Chagee Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, SHEIN and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?
  • China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying
  • De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows
  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)
  • CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow
  • CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June
  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline
  • Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer
  • Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025
  • Shein: London Approves IPO but Tariffs and End Of “De Minimis” Exemption to Lower Valuation

What if China ADRs Are Delisted from US Exchanges?

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 281 Chinese companies listed on U.S Stock Exchanges with a total market cap of US$869bn. 32 of these companies are listed on the HKEX (388 HK). 
  • If the rumours of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. Exchanges gathers steam, we could see a wave of secondary listings in Hong Kong.
  • PDD Holdings, Full Truck Alliance, Vipshop Holdings, TAL Education and ZEEKR are the largest China ADRs with no HK listing and could come under pressure.

China ETF Inflows & Implications: Central Huijin’s Huge Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly US$22bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs over the last 3 trading days, reversing outflows that started in mid February.
  • Central Huijin has announced that it will be increasing its ETF holdings to maintain smooth operation of China’s capital markets. The rest of the National Team will be buying too.
  • There are multiple implications of the huge ETF creations in a short time frame and a reversal of flows will lead to a reversion in a bunch of trades.

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): More Capping-Led Selling in September (And Maybe More in March)

By Brian Freitas

CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Adds for Some Stocks Increase Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be three changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index at the close of trading on 13 June.
  • Based on the assets tracking the index, passive trackers will need to trade between 0.1-0.4x ADV in the stocks.
  • Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) and Suzhou Kematek (301611 CH) will also have net inflows from passive trackers of other indices at the same time, adding to the flow.

CNI Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance Preview: One Change in June

By Brian Freitas

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Global Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is looking to raise up to US$473m in its IPO, valuing the company at up to US$5.2bn. The offering is expected to price today, list tomorrow.
  • Media reports indicate that cornerstone investors have indicated demand for US$205m of the offering. There is no mention of a lock-up on those investors yet.
  • The stock could be added in one global index in August (with a higher probability of inclusion in November), while inclusion in the other global index is likely in December.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): No Messing Around as Yageo (2327 TT) Returns with a JPY5,400 Offer

By Arun George

  • Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has revised its hostile preconditional tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY5,400, representing a 20.0% premium to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)’s JPY4,500 offer.
  • All the other terms remain unchanged. In response to the revised Yageo offer, the Board will commence a sincere review to determine if the Yageo offer will enhance corporate value. 
  • There is a 50/50 chance that Minebea walks or revises its offer. Yageo’s revised offer is marginally above the midpoint of Minebea IFA’s DCF range, potentially justifying a higher offer.

Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Manishi Raychaudhuri. 

  • The ASEAN region is expected to witness positive economic growth in the coming years, driven by robust domestic demand, increasing foreign investments, and government initiatives to boost economic activities.

  • However, challenges like trade turmoil, poor consumer confidence, and potential deflation need to be addressed to sustain and enhance the markets’ attractiveness. 

Join us as Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri shares his outlook on capital markets across ASEAN, including timely insights on sector trends, policy shifts, and future risks shaping investment opportunities in the ASEAN-6. 

The webinar will be hosted on Monday, 28 April 2025, 16:30 SGT/HKT.

Register for the Webinar here

Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri possesses nearly three decades of experience in Asian Equities in the roles of APAC Head of Equity Research, Asian Equity Strategist and Analyst across various sectors, brings a unique cross border and cross-industry perspective to the process of investment strategy and asset allocation. He worked in senior leadership roles at BNP Paribas and UBS across Mumbai and Hong Kong. Prior to UBS, he was with ICICI Securities, then a JV with JP Morgan. Manishi marries top-down macro-economic outlook with bottom-up sector themes to create unique alpha generative portfolios for clients.

Shein: London Approves IPO but Tariffs and End Of “De Minimis” Exemption to Lower Valuation

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past week, Reuters reported that Shein has received approval from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for its IPO in London.
  • In February 2025, Reuters reported Shein could cut its valuation in a potential listing to around $50 billion, which would be 24% lower than the previous private market funding round.
  • Tariff war and ending de minimis for shipments from China to US are likely to result in further reduction in the valuation of Shein, much lower than $50 billion. 

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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