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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #45 – Crypto’s Future in the 2024 U.S. Election and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #45 – Crypto’s Future in the 2024 U.S. Election


Crypto Moves #45 – Crypto’s Future in the 2024 U.S. Election

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is fast approaching, set for November 5.
  • On this day, voters will choose whether to elect current Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, for her first full term, or return Republican Donald Trump to the White House.
  • In Crypto Moves #28, we highlighted how this year’s presidential election is more centered on the crypto industry than ever before.

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Daily Brief Macro: Positioning Watch – Markets Are Moving Away from the US (in FI) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Positioning Watch – Markets Are Moving Away from the US (in FI)
  • Liquidity Nugget: The worst turn liquidity in years
  • China’s Serial Rate Cuts: What are Them and are They Effective in Reviving the Falling Economy
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 27 Sep 2024
  • EM FX Outlook: Fed Easing Helps but Divergent Trends
  • HEW: Shrinking Fed Exceptionalism
  • Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (27 Sep 2024)
  • Outlook Overview: How Far Are the Rate Cuts?
  • EU Conveys To WTO That It Is Firm On EUDR Deadline
  • CX Daily: Can China Create Its Own Goldman Sachs With Brokerage Mega-Merger?


Positioning Watch – Markets Are Moving Away from the US (in FI)

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update!
  • Everything is about China these days, with both the PBoC and the Politburo preparing stimulus packages to save the Chinese economy from its nasty downturn.
  • While the stimulus initiatives are not very large, relatively speaking (roughly a percentage of GDP on average across stimulus packages), markets clearly see the heavy amounts of proposed stimulus as a “whatever it takes” signal, sparking a strong momentum trend in the Hang Seng and China proxies.

Liquidity Nugget: The worst turn liquidity in years

By Andreas Steno

  • September’s month-end is always a significant period for xCcy markets, primarily due to window-dressing by financial institutions and the upcoming 3-month rolling into year-end.
  • This leads to heightened volatility and liquidity adjustments, particularly noticeable around the xCcy basis.
  • How bad will it be this year?

China’s Serial Rate Cuts: What are Them and are They Effective in Reviving the Falling Economy

By Alex Ng

  • What exactly are medium term lending facility, short term lending facility, Loan Prime Rates, Required Reserve Ratio, 7-day reverse repo rate, and 14-day reverse repo rate?
  • The PBOC measures this week are wider and more all-rounded, compressing what is usually a month or two of actions into one single week.
  • The intensity of  measures will give hope and expectation to even more measures to come and turn the long-term down trend of Chinese stocks to an upward momentum in short-term.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 27 Sep 2024

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • European manufacturing PMIs signal recession, with Germany’s reading at 40.3, indicating deep trouble in the sector.
  • China’s moderate stimulus measures aim to stabilize the property sector without excessive debt or household stimulus.
  • Vietnam’s economic outlook is optimistic, driven by political shifts and expected pro-growth policies under General Secretary To Lam.

EM FX Outlook: Fed Easing Helps but Divergent Trends

By Alex Ng

  • USD strength is ebbing across the board, which provides a positive force for most EM currencies on a spot basis. 
  • However, where inflation differentials are large, the downward pressure will remain in 2025 e.g. Turkish Lira (TRY)
  • Where inflation differentials are modest against the U.S., but interest rate differentials are wider then this can mean modest appreciation – especially if the starting point is an undervalued currency. 

HEW: Shrinking Fed Exceptionalism

By Phil Rush

  • China’s stimulus has positively impacted sentiment, although this is not the case in the Euro area due to falling PMIs and unexpectedly weak flash inflation releases. The Fed’s dovish pricing extremes have become less exceptional.
  • The upcoming week’s data may further this trend, with the Euro area HICP tracking low and US pricing potentially susceptible to another drop in unemployment. Policy decisions will only be coming from Colombia and Poland.
  • The most significant event of the week will be Powell’s speech.

Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (27 Sep 2024)

By Alex Ng

  • The biggest fuss of the market this week is the intensity of a number of PBOC’s measures, which, unconventionally, were jam-packed.
  • In particular the 800 billion RMB fund directly loaned to security broker and corporate repurchases is a new and effective measure to revive the falling stock market.
  • Whether the serial of different types of rate cuts and the stock market funds can revive the economy will take a few month longer to see.

Outlook Overview: How Far Are the Rate Cuts?

By Alex Ng

  • The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing.
  • Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. 
  • Elsewhere, European growth should recover into 2025. Finally, China growth is set to slow to 4% in 2025, as slowdown in consumption adds to the drag from the residential property.

EU Conveys To WTO That It Is Firm On EUDR Deadline

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s request goes unheeded  
  • EPP agriculture chief quotes EC chief offering temporary solution  
  • EUDR system to be opened for user registration in November

CX Daily: Can China Create Its Own Goldman Sachs With Brokerage Mega-Merger?

By Caixin Global

  • M&A / In Depth: Can China create its own Goldman Sachs with brokerage mega-merger?
  • China-U.S. /: Asia New Vision Forum: China-U.S. ties should be ‘managed strategic competition,’ Rudd says

  • Investment /: Asia New Vision Forum: Fresh stimulus package ‘great news’ for startups, VC investor says

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Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • EU Conveys To WTO That It Is Firm On EUDR Deadline


EU Conveys To WTO That It Is Firm On EUDR Deadline

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s request goes unheeded  
  • EPP agriculture chief quotes EC chief offering temporary solution  
  • EUDR system to be opened for user registration in November

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Daily Brief Indonesia: AAC Technologies Holdings, Genting Bhd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Trade Book – September 2024 – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 20 Sep 2024
  • Asia Monthly – August 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics


Asia Trade Book – September 2024 – Lucror Analytics

By Felix Fischer

The Asia Trade Book for September 2024 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits.

Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.


Weekly Wrap – 20 Sep 2024

By Felix Fischer

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. Meituan
  3. Yankuang Energy Group
  4. Genting Bhd
  5. Delhi International Airport Limited

and more…


Asia Monthly – August 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics

By Felix Fischer

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in August 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan.

In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on developments in the Asian corporate USD bond market.


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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Zinc, Hana Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Latest Forecast for Korea Zinc’s Tendering Rate
  • Hana Financial (086790 KS); Error of Omission from the Value-Up Index?


Latest Forecast for Korea Zinc’s Tendering Rate

By Sanghyun Park

  • Overseas institutions might tender around 4%, locals about 6%, giving a realistic max of 10%. MBK may struggle to even reach that minimum of 7%.
  • Mirae Asset and Samsung Life, holding the largest portion of the targetable stakes, hinted they’ll participate in the tender but won’t tender all their shares.
  • Allocation risk for the tender is minimal, but cancellation risk remains. MBK may barely exceed the 7% minimum, making predictions tough and reducing chances of a post-tender stock price drop.

Hana Financial (086790 KS); Error of Omission from the Value-Up Index?

By Victor Galliano

  • Hana Financial, along with KB Financial did not make the cut for the Korea Value-up index announced on the 24th September; Hana apparently fell short of the PBV ratio threshold
  • Despite being excluded from the Value-up Index, Hana remains our core South Korean bank pick for its attractive valuations, low PEG, solid core capital ratio and strong credit quality credentials
  • We believe Hana stands out positively on fundamentals and return trends versus its peers, and there is also potential for its inclusion in a planned rebalancing scheduled in December

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Daily Brief United States: Micron Technology, Chevron Corp, Tesla , Skyward Specialty Insurance Gr, Bitcoin, Arlo Technologies Inc, Symbotic, Patrick Industries, SBC Medical Group Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Micron. Zoom, Zoom, Zoom, We’re Going To The Moon…
  • Micron and WFE
  • [Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance
  • Tesla Gears Up for Game-Changing Robotaxi Event Amid EV Sales Surge
  • Skyward Specialty Insurance: Leveraging Insurtech for Growth in Underserved Markets
  • Crypto Moves #45 – Crypto’s Future in the 2024 U.S. Election
  • ARLO: Subscriber Adds to Drive ARPU Up
  • SYM: One Site Equals Sell
  • Patrick Industries Inc (PATK) – Friday, Jun 28, 2024
  • SBC Medical Group Holdings – Fast Growing Solutions Provider in Expanding Aesthetic Medical Market


Micron. Zoom, Zoom, Zoom, We’re Going To The Moon…

By William Keating

  • Q424 revenue $7.8 billion which was $200 million above the guided midpoint, up 14% QoQ and up 93% YoY.
  • Q125 revenue of $8.7 billion with gross margin 39.5%. This will be the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
  • On track for ~20% share of a $25 billion HBM market in 2025

Micron and WFE

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.
  • I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)
  • Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

By Suhas Reddy

  • Chevron’s Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.
  • The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.
  • Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.

Tesla Gears Up for Game-Changing Robotaxi Event Amid EV Sales Surge

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Tesla projects Q3 2024 EV sales of 460,000–470,000, reflecting 8% YoY growth, driven by high demand in China and robust Gigafactory operations. 
  • The October 10 Robotaxi event will spotlight Tesla’s Full Self Driving tech, attracting intense investor interest in autonomous transportation’s future prospects. Investors eye a new cheaper Tesla model release.
  • Waymo leads the U.S. market, with 100,000+ weekly paid robotaxi trips, intensifying pressure on Tesla to match or surpass this scale in its robotaxi rollout. 

Skyward Specialty Insurance: Leveraging Insurtech for Growth in Underserved Markets

By Pyari Menon

  • One of the areas of fintech innovations, seeing significant growth is insurtech. Big data, AI, and IoT have enabled innovations in customer experience, risk assessment, and personalized products.
  • Skyward Specialty Insurance Gr (SKWD US)‘s focus on underserved and complex markets, with unique risks, should give the company better growth and margins runway. 
  • Integration of proprietary  and collaborative technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience in specific niches makes Skyward very competitive in admitted and  specialty insurance segments. 

Crypto Moves #45 – Crypto’s Future in the 2024 U.S. Election

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is fast approaching, set for November 5.
  • On this day, voters will choose whether to elect current Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, for her first full term, or return Republican Donald Trump to the White House.
  • In Crypto Moves #28, we highlighted how this year’s presidential election is more centered on the crypto industry than ever before.

ARLO: Subscriber Adds to Drive ARPU Up

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO continues to operate within an industry that is highly price sensitive and dependent on the consumer signing up for paid service. 
  • We are lowering our third quarter hardware revenue to reflect the lower pricing environment. ARLO is not a hardware story. The Company placing hardware units leads to paid service subscribers.
  • ARLO’s stock has been under pressure since reporting second quarter results most likely to do with concerns over actual number of quarterly retail subscriber adds

SYM: One Site Equals Sell

By Hamed Khorsand

  • SYM has disclosed one additional customer site location, Cullman, Alabama, in third quarter 2024. This one location brings the total number of sites where customers have accepted SYM’s to twenty.
  • We believe the slowdown in system placements and acceptance has continued into the third quarter and the challenges faced in the second quarter are likely to continue.
  • SYM has been promising several product placements progressing from backlog to acceptance. We believe this pace has slowed with only one location so far in Q3

Patrick Industries Inc (PATK) – Friday, Jun 28, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Patrick Industries is a manufacturer and distributor of components for various industries such as recreational vehicles, marine, and manufactured housing
  • The company has a history of value creation and shareholder value creation
  • Despite being undercovered in the investing community, PATK presents an opportunity for long-term investors due to potential future upside and its competitive landscape in the manufacturing sector

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


SBC Medical Group Holdings – Fast Growing Solutions Provider in Expanding Aesthetic Medical Market

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Growing Player in Medical Aesthetic Market SBC Medical Group Holdings (SBC- NASDAQ), headquartered in Irvine, California, provides end-to-end solutions for aesthetics clinics, including back office support, purchasing, branding and marketing services (see below), that enable clinics to focus on offering their customers high quality treatments and services at affordable rates.
  • SBC Medical Group first began operations in 2000 when its founder and largest shareholder, Dr. Yoshiyuki Aikawa, opened the Shonan Beauty Clinic (SBC) in Fujisawa City, Japan.
  • SBC subsequently has expanded its footprint as it continues to grow its network and revenue base.

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Daily Brief India: Swiggy, NTPC Green Energy Ltd, Himadri Speciality Chemical, China Hongqiao, AAC Technologies Holdings, Genting Bhd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Swiggy IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance
  • NTPC Green Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • The Beat Ideas- Himadri Speciality Chemical: Vertical Integration into Tyre & Li-Ion Batteries
  • Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Continuum Green Energy
  • Weekly Wrap – 27 Sep 2024
  • Asia Trade Book – September 2024 – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 20 Sep 2024
  • Asia Monthly – August 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics


Swiggy IPO: Key Facts and Financials at First Glance

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Swiggy (1255298D IN) , a popular food and grocery delivery platform in India, plans to launch its much-anticipated IPO in early November.
  • The company has seen rapid growth in Gross Order Value and revenues, driven by increased food delivery demand and a surge in quick commerce, an on demand grocery delivery service.
  • The Naspers and Softbank Group (9984 JP)  backed company that started operations in 2014 is yet to turn profitable while its close competitor Zomato reported profits in FY2024.

NTPC Green Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • NTPC Green Energy Ltd (2214556D IN) is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by IDBI Cap, HDFC, IIFL and Nuvama Wealth.
  • It is a renewable energy public sector enterprise and a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC Limited. Its portfolio encompasses solar and wind power assets with presence in over six states.
  • According to CRISIL, it was the largest renewable energy public sector enterprise (excluding hydro) in terms of operating capacity as of June 30, 2024 and power generation in FY24.

The Beat Ideas- Himadri Speciality Chemical: Vertical Integration into Tyre & Li-Ion Batteries

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Himadri Speciality Chemical (HSCH IN)‘s expansion into Li-ion batteries and tires, with a massive Rs. 1,100 crore capex and Birla Tyres acquisition.
  • Diversification into sunrise industries boosts margins, strengthens competitive positioning, and supports long-term growth.
  • HSCL’s evolving business model makes it more than just a carbon company, enhancing its growth potential and resilience.

Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Continuum Green Energy

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Weekly Wrap – 27 Sep 2024

By Felix Fischer

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Biocon Ltd
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Wynn Macau Ltd
  4. Rakuten
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Asia Trade Book – September 2024 – Lucror Analytics

By Felix Fischer

The Asia Trade Book for September 2024 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits.

Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.


Weekly Wrap – 20 Sep 2024

By Felix Fischer

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. Meituan
  3. Yankuang Energy Group
  4. Genting Bhd
  5. Delhi International Airport Limited

and more…


Asia Monthly – August 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics

By Felix Fischer

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in August 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan.

In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on developments in the Asian corporate USD bond market.


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Daily Brief Japan: Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Nikkei 225 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Reports Phase 3 Trial Result in Atopic Dermatitis; Rivalry Remains Doubtful
  • Governance and Shareholder Return Are Likely to Improve, and Investors Continue to Pay Attention
  • EQD | The Nikkei At The Top


Kyowa Kirin (4151 JP): Reports Phase 3 Trial Result in Atopic Dermatitis; Rivalry Remains Doubtful

By Tina Banerjee

  • Kyowa Kirin Co Ltd (4151 JP) announced top-line results of the Phase 3 trial of rocatinlimab targeting moderate to severe Atopic Dermatitis (eczema), which affects 6.6M patients in the U.S.
  • The trial met co-primary endpoints and reached statistically significant differences from placebo for all key secondary endpoints. However, efficacy data was less compelling compared to current standard of care.
  • Kyowa Kirin shares nosedived mainly on the concern over competitive strength of rocatinlimab. Amid gloomy outlook, Kyowa Kirin shares will need time to recover.

Governance and Shareholder Return Are Likely to Improve, and Investors Continue to Pay Attention

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since the total shares held by Founder Family, trust Banks and FamilyMart exceed 50%, this director appointment proposal will pass unless the shareholders held by the trust banks oppose it.
  • Challenges will be noted in the function of the nominating committee, which nominated directors with few elements falling under the skills item, and in the disclosure of the skills matrix.
  • While PPIH’s free cash flow is ample and growth is expected, shareholder returns and governance remain challenges, but with overseas investor equity exceeding 30%, much improvement is expected in future.

EQD | The Nikkei At The Top

By Nico Rosti

  • The last 2 weeks’ upswing in the Nikkei 225 INDEX does not change our view: it is WEEKLY overbought and October is a coin flip according to our seasonal models.
  • The index could rise further at this point, herd behavior may force investors to pile up into the rally, but our models say rising well past 40k will be hard.
  • A pullback is not necessarily a great occasion to buy, as already explained in our previous insight, the N225’s trend does not look good, at the moment.

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Daily Brief China: Sun Art Retail, Lao Feng Xiang Co Ltd B, China Hongqiao, AAC Technologies Holdings, Lufax Holding , Haidilao International Holding, New World Development and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): COFCO Offer?
  • Lao Feng Xiang (900905) – Friday, Jun 28, 2024
  • Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Continuum Green Energy
  • Weekly Wrap – 27 Sep 2024
  • Weekly Wrap – 27 Sep 2024
  • Asia Trade Book – September 2024 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Animal Spirits
  • The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 27)
  • Asia Monthly – August 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics
  • New World Development – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics


Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): COFCO Offer?

By David Blennerhassett


Lao Feng Xiang (900905) – Friday, Jun 28, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • LFX is a heritage jewelry retailer with almost 180 years of history, traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange
  • A shares trade at around 14-15x TTM earnings with a 3% yield, while B shares trade at a significant discount of 5x TTM earnings and a 7% yield
  • Opportunity for investors to own stake in a growing business with strong returns on capital and conservative management at a discounted price, due to lack of attention to the B share class.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Continuum Green Energy

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Weekly Wrap – 27 Sep 2024

By Felix Fischer

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Biocon Ltd
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Wynn Macau Ltd
  4. Rakuten
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 27 Sep 2024

By Felix Fischer

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Biocon Ltd
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Wynn Macau Ltd
  4. Rakuten
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Asia Trade Book – September 2024 – Lucror Analytics

By Felix Fischer

The Asia Trade Book for September 2024 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits.

Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.


Chinese Animal Spirits

By Turtles all the way down

  • I am quite sick so I will keep it short.
  • I am closing Lufax (LU) here and would at least take something off the table for JD holdings (JD) 
  • Honestly Lufax business is too much of a black box, and the forward PE multiple isn’t low enough anymore for my taste.

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 27)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong is now the top-performing major world market this year.  With a large valuation disparity, both Hong Kong’s and China’s markets have more upside potential.
  • Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) and Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) are benefiting from the improvement in consumer sentiment with government stimulus targeting housing payments and consumption.
  • Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) surged in anticipation of increased market trading and IPOs.  Industry consolidation is also part of the improved sentiment.

Asia Monthly – August 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics

By Felix Fischer

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in August 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan.

In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on developments in the Asian corporate USD bond market.


New World Development – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

New World Development’s (NWD) FY 2023-24 results were weak, but in line with expectations as flagged by the company’s profit warning earlier in September. We expect the company’s revenue and EBITDA to improve in FY 2024-25, supported by new project launches in Hong Kong as well as contributions from new K11 commercial assets in Hong Kong and Mainland China.

While NWD has continued to reduce net debt, leverage weakened on account of the weaker earnings and smaller asset base (due to disposals). Cash/ST Debt is inadequate, though we believe the company’s liquidity is manageable due to its continued access to financing. In particular, we note positively NWD’s receipt of a HKD 1 bn unsecured loan, as well as its ability to tap the USD bond market in August 2024.

The resignation of Adrian Cheng as NWD’s CEO (as well as from the Boards of NWD’s sister companies) is surprising in our view, though we believe the impact is credit neutral.

We move to “Buy” from “Hold” on the NWDEVL notes, as we view the yields as attractive.


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Most Read: Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde, Samsung Electronics, Shanghai Electric Group Company, NTPC Ltd, KB Financial, K Bank, Sun Art Retail, Apollo Global Management , New World Development, Korea Zinc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • China’s [Maybe] Biggish [Quasi?] Bazooka
  • Korea Exchange Announces The Korea Value Up Index
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: Massive Increase in AUMs Causes Flow Expectations to Soar
  • NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn
  • A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024
  • K Bank IPO (279570 KS): Index Inclusion Timeline
  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): COFCO Offer?
  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: Two ADDs (One Biggie), Two DELs, Possible Big Intrareview Moves
  • New World Dev (17 HK): Board Games
  • Latest Forecast for Korea Zinc’s Tendering Rate


China’s [Maybe] Biggish [Quasi?] Bazooka

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, in a press conference held jointly by the Governor of the PBOC, the Director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau, and Chairman of the CSRC, China announced market stimulus measures.
  • The PBOC will cut RRR 50bp, the 7-day repo rate 20bp, guide effective mortgage rate cuts, and lower minimum down payments on second homes. There are other commercial RE measures.
  • Three major stock market measures were announced. A RMB500bn collateral swap programme, PBOC backing RMB300bn bank loans for corps to buy stocks, and a Plan to increase Central Huijin investments.

Korea Exchange Announces The Korea Value Up Index

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Exchange announced the long awaited Korea Value Up Index (“K Value Up Index”) (composed of 100 stocks) today. 
  • Korea Exchange used a 5-step screening process to select the 100 companies in this index including market cap, profitability, shareholder returns, market evaluation, and capital efficiency. 
  • This Value Up index is part of the bigger “Corporate Value Up ” program in Korea. These efforts to improve Korea’s corporate governance policies is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: Massive Increase in AUMs Causes Flow Expectations to Soar

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
  • Since our last insight in August, there has been a sharp increase in reported AUMs tracking CSI 300 and CSI 500. This has caused our flow expectations to rise sharply.

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

By Brian Freitas


A Special Rebalancing Of Korea Value-Up Index Is Likely in December 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • On 26 September, the Korea Exchange announced that it is considering a “special rebalancing” of the Korea Value-Up Index in December 2024.
  • In our view, the probability of this special rebalancing occurring by the end of this year is high at about 85%+.
  • If there is a special rebalancing, KB Financial, Hana Financial, Samsung Life Insurance, SK Telecom, and KT could be considered the top candidates for inclusion. 

K Bank IPO (279570 KS): Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • K Bank (279570 KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 984bn (US$738m), valuing the company at KRW 5tn (US$3.75bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
  • Close peer KakaoBank (323410 KS) and regional peer SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) have been trading lower recently and the IPO could price lower than the top end.
  • The change in KOSPI2 INDEX Fast Entry rules will leave the stock out of the index till June 2025. Inclusion in global indices will have to wait a while too.

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): COFCO Offer?

By David Blennerhassett


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: Two ADDs (One Biggie), Two DELs, Possible Big Intrareview Moves

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.

New World Dev (17 HK): Board Games

By David Blennerhassett

  • Evidently the influence of a younger hip third-generation tycoon-scion was not the panacea for New World Development (17 HK) and its ongoing issues in the HK/China property space.
  • As widely expected, Adrian Cheng is stepping down as NWD’s CEO, to be replaced by Eric Ma,  Hong Kong’s former secretary for development.
  • NWD will also sell the rights to provide property management services under the K11 brand to Adrian; and potentially sell its stake in Kai Tak Sports Park to its parent.

Latest Forecast for Korea Zinc’s Tendering Rate

By Sanghyun Park

  • Overseas institutions might tender around 4%, locals about 6%, giving a realistic max of 10%. MBK may struggle to even reach that minimum of 7%.
  • Mirae Asset and Samsung Life, holding the largest portion of the targetable stakes, hinted they’ll participate in the tender but won’t tender all their shares.
  • Allocation risk for the tender is minimal, but cancellation risk remains. MBK may barely exceed the 7% minimum, making predictions tough and reducing chances of a post-tender stock price drop.

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