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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 01
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, UiPath Inc, Mixi Inc, C3.ai Inc, Topcon Corp, ANGI Homeservices and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Plays and Skew Top Trades
  • UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Goes ‘Taiwan Speed’ in Arizona; Phison Predicts Edge AI Flash Memory Boom
  • UiPath: A Tale Of Cloud Transition & SaaS Growth With An Astounding 98% Retention!
  • MIXI Inc. (2121 JP) – A Potentially Game-Changing Deal
  • C3.ai’s 460% Surge in Deals Signals a Breakout Moment—Is This the Best AI Stock to Buy Today?
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon
  • ANGI Spin-off Deep Dive

Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Plays and Skew Top Trades

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
  • With short-term implied volatility below its median, long volatility strategies dominate, with a balanced mix of bullish and bearish positions. 
  • Open interest spread across monthly and quarterly expiries, with some notable strategies taking advantage of longer expiration dates, and a steep negatively sloped skew $475.

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done
  • TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.
  • Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Goes ‘Taiwan Speed’ in Arizona; Phison Predicts Edge AI Flash Memory Boom

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC Accelerates U.S. Expansion — New Arizona Fab to Be Built at ‘Taiwan Speed’
  • Phison CEO Sees Decade-Long Boom for NAND Flash as AI Shifts to the Edge
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive 

UiPath: A Tale Of Cloud Transition & SaaS Growth With An Astounding 98% Retention!

By Baptista Research

  • UiPath reported its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 financial performance, marking several high and low points that are critical for investors to examine as they consider their future involvement with the company.
  • On the positive side, UiPath achieved a quarterly revenue of $424 million, with only a slight impact from foreign exchange fluctuations.
  • For the full fiscal year, revenue increased to $1.43 billion, reflecting a 9% improvement year-over-year.

MIXI Inc. (2121 JP) – A Potentially Game-Changing Deal

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • MIXI has announced an all-cash deal worth ¥35.2bn for PointsBet Holdings (PBH), an Australian sports and racing online betting company operating in Australia and Canada.
  • The deal is due to close in mid-June 2025. We view this transaction as aligned with MIXI’s strategies of business diversification and overseas expansion, leveraging the expertise gained from TIPSTAR in Japan’s keirin and auto-race betting businesses to enter the Australian market, thereby accelerating the growth of both TIPSTAR and PointsBet.
  • MIXI is demonstrating a positive and active allocation of its capital, with a high intent to accelerate the development of its Sports business and make it a key earnings pillar.

C3.ai’s 460% Surge in Deals Signals a Breakout Moment—Is This the Best AI Stock to Buy Today?

By Baptista Research

  • C3.ai has exhibited a solid performance in the third fiscal quarter of 2025, ending January 31, 2025, with both positive developments and certain challenges.
  • The company reported total revenue of $98.8 million, representing a 26% increase year-over-year.
  • Subscription revenue, constituting the majority of its revenue, grew by 22% to $85.7 million.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of March 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~53%, with a year-to-date average also of 55%.
  • The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .

ANGI Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Angi Inc. (“Angi”) is set to be spun off from IAC Inc. (IAC owns 85% of the company) on March 31, 2025 following a multi-year turnaround that restored profitability and improved cash flow.

  • The first day of regular way trading will be April 1, 2025.

  • Angi operates the largest digital marketplace for home services in the U.S., connecting homeowners with contractors across Angi’s Ads and Leads platform (formerly HomeAdvisor/Angie’s List) and Services (pre-priced jobs fulfilled via Angi’s network), with an international segment spanning Europe and Canada.

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Apr 01
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Corporation, Korean Air Lines, Weichai Power Co Ltd H, Mastec Inc, Dongfang Electric, Aaon Inc, Arcadis NV, Stantec , Esab , Middleby Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Fat Inheritance Taxes for Hanwha Group Chairman Kim’s Three Sons Post Receiving Hanwha Corp Shares
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2025); Banks and Divs Bought Again
  • MasTec’s Clean Energy Boom: New Client Wins & Rising Margins Could Fuel Solid Growth In 2025!
  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Returning to Growth in 1Q25 Despite Weak FY24
  • Can AAON Capitalize On The Data Center Boom With Game-Changing $1 Billion Expansion Plan?
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 31 March (KPN | Arcadis)
  • Stantec Eyes A Water Infrastructure Boom — But Execution Delays & Cost Pressures Weigh On Performance!
  • ESAB Goes Global: Strategic Strikes in Brazil, Bangladesh & Beyond Set Stage For Future Expansion!
  • Middleby Corporation Is On A Buying Spree—Is M&A The ONLY Feasible Way For Them To Grow?

Fat Inheritance Taxes for Hanwha Group Chairman Kim’s Three Sons Post Receiving Hanwha Corp Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Hanwha Group Chairman Kim Seung-youn (born in 1952) made a major move to give 11.32% of his shares in Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) to his three sons.
  • It is estimated that the three sons will need to pay nearly 222 billion won in inheritance taxes associated with receiving additional stakes in Hanwha Corp.
  • Because the three sons need to pay for the high amounts of inheritance taxes, Hanwha Corp is likely to raise the dividend payout in the next several years.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2025.
  • Among the 38 holdcos/opcos, there have been several pairs that have resulted in significant price ratio divergence which could provide trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal.
  • Given the resumption in short selling in Korea, there is going to be a lot more interest in pair trades in Korea, especially among the major Korean holdcos/opcos. 

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2025); Banks and Divs Bought Again

By Travis Lundy

  • Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. This week was +HK$37bn.
  • That’s decent net buying still. Keeping that pace would mean a new record. It IS possible this excess flow is state-managed (or state-insisted as insurers up equity investment ratios).
  • Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week, but tariffs, retaliation, US growth prospects, etc will all matter more. 

MasTec’s Clean Energy Boom: New Client Wins & Rising Margins Could Fuel Solid Growth In 2025!

By Baptista Research

  • MasTec Inc. has reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.
  • The company’s performance exceeded expectations across several key metrics, including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and earnings per share (EPS).
  • For the fourth quarter, MasTec achieved a revenue of $3.4 billion with an adjusted EBITDA of $271 million, marking a 20% year-over-year increase.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Returning to Growth in 1Q25 Despite Weak FY24

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)‘s 1Q25 express report suggested earnings may increase 15-25% YoY, reversing the YoY decline in 4Q24 and FY24. This is encouraging. 
  • Its signs record new orders in FY24, fuelling its order backlog to Rmb152.6bn, which equals 2x the FY25F revenue. 2H24 new order momentum is better than 1H24.
  • The pending A-share placement, while diluting EPS, will enhance book value for the H-share holders. Its 6.4x PER and 7.3% dividend yield are inexpensive.

Can AAON Capitalize On The Data Center Boom With Game-Changing $1 Billion Expansion Plan?

By Baptista Research

  • AAON, Inc.’s recent earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 provided investors with a detailed overview of the company’s financial performance, strategic initiatives, and outlook.
  • The company, which boasts a strong position in the heating and cooling industry, highlighted both its achievements and challenges during the year.
  • On the positive side, AAON reported a substantial increase in bookings and backlog, signaling strong future demand.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 31 March (KPN | Arcadis)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • KPN | Liberty Global hints on acquiring optical fibre network in the Netherlands • Arcadis | awarded major rail project contract in the UK

Stantec Eyes A Water Infrastructure Boom — But Execution Delays & Cost Pressures Weigh On Performance!

By Baptista Research

  • Stantec Inc.’s latest financial results highlight a year of robust growth and strategic strength, marked by impressive revenue increases and solid performance across its key geographies.
  • For the full year 2024, Stantec reported record net revenues of $5.9 billion, constituting a 15.8% growth compared to the previous year.
  • This comprised 7.4% organic growth and 7.5% acquisition growth, underscoring the company’s effective strategy in combining steady organic development with strategic acquisitions.

ESAB Goes Global: Strategic Strikes in Brazil, Bangladesh & Beyond Set Stage For Future Expansion!

By Baptista Research

  • ESAB demonstrated a robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, concluding a year of sustained execution and strategic growth initiatives.
  • The company achieved record fourth-quarter profits and adjusted EBITDA margins, which expanded by 90 basis points to reach 20.3%.
  • Despite flat organic growth, the margins underscore ESAB’s commitment to the EBX continuous improvement system, which facilitated operational enhancements and cost efficiencies.

Middleby Corporation Is On A Buying Spree—Is M&A The ONLY Feasible Way For Them To Grow?

By Baptista Research

  • The Middleby Corporation has recently reported on various strategic changes and an earnings summary for the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The company announced its decision to spin off its Food Processing business to form a separate publicly traded entity, aiming to create two distinct companies: Middleby Corporation focusing on commercial and residential kitchen equipment, and Middleby Food Processing.
  • This move is expected to allow each business to sharpen its strategic and operational focus, optimize capital structure, and align more strategically with its respective market opportunities.

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Apr 01
0

Daily Brief Health Care: QingSong Health, Asahi Intecc, Biogen Inc, Cadrenal Therapeutics , Healthequity Inc, MetaVia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • QingSong Health Corporation – Pain Points of the Business Model and the Outlook
  • Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Softer H2 Expected; Positive Long-Term Outlook Amid Tariff Noises
  • Biogen, Inc: Breakthrough Drug Developer in Reset Mode; Initiating Coverage
  • CVKD: Preparing for Phase 3 Trial of Tecarfarin
  • HealthEquity Is Doubling Down on Growth Through Acquisitions—Can This Bold Move Avoid a Costly Misfire?
  • MTVA: Phase 1 Part 2 Data for DA-1726 in Obesity Expected Soon

QingSong Health Corporation – Pain Points of the Business Model and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The business model of QingSong is a platform offering comprehensive healthcare services and tailored financial resources. By connecting different stakeholders, QingSong can monetize its user base, creating a virtuous cycle.
  • Qingsong’s revenue structure has undergone significant changes. However, if Qingsong’s future business focus is on Qingsong Healthcare services, it may be difficult to generate large-scale profits in the end.
  • Listed insurance intermediary platforms have been in the shadow of a decline in stock prices. So, there is concerns that future share price performance of QingSong may not be optimistic.  

Asahi Intecc (7747 JP): Softer H2 Expected; Positive Long-Term Outlook Amid Tariff Noises

By Tina Banerjee

  • Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) announced double-digit growth across all the key parameters in H1FY25. Market share expansion of medical division and favorable Fx drove growth.
  • Reiteration of FY25 guidance implies a softer H2 performance. In H2FY25, revenue is expected to increase 4% YoY, while both operating and net profit are likely to decline.
  • The U.S. contributes ~20% of medical division’s revenue of Asahi Intecc, which is lower than other large Japanese medtech companies. This should limit tariff exposure.

Biogen, Inc: Breakthrough Drug Developer in Reset Mode; Initiating Coverage

By Water Tower Research

  • Biogen built its reputation on a differentiated modality-agnostic approach to drug development, deploying innovative technologies to address complex and intractable diseases.
  • This innovative approach yielded the company’s golden era, which lasted ~20 years from the mid- 1990s to 2017. During this period, Biogen enjoyed near unrivaled leadership in the disease-modifying treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS).
  • But the adage of ‘all good things must come to an end’ could not be more of a truism for the company, as genericization and the entry of more efficacious next-generation treatments began to erode revenue from its MS franchise. 

CVKD: Preparing for Phase 3 Trial of Tecarfarin

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On March 13, 2025, Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. (CVKD) announced financial results for 2024 and provided a business update.
  • The company has been laying the groundwork for a Phase 3 trial of tecarfarin in patients with left ventricular assist devices (LVAD).
  • In support of this, Cadrenal recently announced a collaboration agreement with Abbott to support the planned TECarfarin Anticoagulation and Hemocompatibility with Left Ventricular Assist Devices (TECH-LVAD) trial.

HealthEquity Is Doubling Down on Growth Through Acquisitions—Can This Bold Move Avoid a Costly Misfire?

By Baptista Research

  • HealthEquity Inc. has reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, showing significant growth and strategic developments.
  • The company, known for managing health savings accounts (HSAs), achieved robust year-over-year growth across pivotal metrics.
  • Revenue increased by 19% to $1.2 billion for the full fiscal year, with a notable 20% uptick from the previous year.

MTVA: Phase 1 Part 2 Data for DA-1726 in Obesity Expected Soon

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On March 20, 2025, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) announced financial results for 2024 and provided a business update.
  • We anticipate topline results from the multiple ascending dose (MAD) Part 2 of the Phase 1 trial of DA-1726 to be reported in April 2025.
  • DA-1726 is the company’s novel dual oxyntomodulin analog that functions as a dual glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1R) and glucagon receptor (GCGR) agonist.

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Apr 01
0

Daily Brief Financials: China Merchants Bank H, NIFTY Index, Banco BPM SpA, Information Services, Longfor Properties and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening
  • NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.
  • Danish or Not, UniCredit’s Consolidation Appetite Is Intact
  • Information Services Corporation — Record results and commitment to growth targets
  • Information Services Corporation — Record results and commitment to growth targets
  • Longfor Group – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion was as expected. Narrow spreads saw Hs suffer more. Wide spreads saw H outperformance. 
  • The last few weeks I said warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. This week they widened despite big SOUTHBOUND buying.
  • I expect the right thing to do is hunker down and be flat H/A risk.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.

By Sankalp Singh

  • SEBI intervenes on constantly changing Option contract specifications. NSE halts expiry day shift indefinitely & awaits clarity from regulator. 
  • IVs slid lower to 11% levels – extended weekend being a primary factor. Risk premia is nearing historically low extremes. “Low & Down” state persists for the Vol-Regime model.
  • Tactical Implications: (1) Scale back Vol harvesting structures as “Low & Down” Vol-state persists. (2) Reverse Calendars for long gamma exposure to upcoming events. Utilize Low IVs & curve Contango.

Danish or Not, UniCredit’s Consolidation Appetite Is Intact

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Despite losing access to favorable capital treatment under the Danish Compromise, Banco BPM is proceeding with its Anima acquisition, leveraging mitigation measures to maintain a CET1 ratio above 13%.
  • UniCredit’s €14B all-share offer for Banco BPM moves forward despite ECB rejecting the Danish Compromise, with capital strength and shareholder backing keeping the deal on a strong trajectory.
  • CEO Andrea Orcel’s dealmaking expertise and UniCredit’s 42.9% share price rise since the bid increase confidence in the bank’s ability to complete the acquisition and extract long-term value.

Information Services Corporation — Record results and commitment to growth targets

By Edison Investment Research

Information Services Corporation (ISC) has completed its first full year post the announcement of its ambitious goal to double its size in terms of revenue and adjusted EBITDA (on an FY23 basis) by 2028. ISC reported strong organic growth in FY24, with both record-high revenue (up 15% y-o-y to C$247.4m) and adjusted EBITDA (up 24% y-o-y to C$90.3m). Management reiterated FY25 guidance for revenue of C$257–267m (Edison FY25e: C$262.2) and adjusted EBITDA of C$89–97m (Edison FY25e: C$94.1m). Our discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation yields C$39 per share ( C$40/share previously), representing c 60% upside to the current share price.

Information Services Corporation — Record results and commitment to growth targets

By Edison Investment Research

Information Services Corporation (ISC) has completed its first full year post the announcement of its ambitious goal to double its size in terms of revenue and adjusted EBITDA (on an FY23 basis) by 2028. ISC reported strong organic growth in FY24, with both record-high revenue (up 15% y-o-y to C$247.4m) and adjusted EBITDA (up 24% y-o-y to C$90.3m). Management reiterated FY25 guidance for revenue of C$257–267m (Edison FY25e: C$262.2) and adjusted EBITDA of C$89–97m (Edison FY25e: C$94.1m). Our discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation yields C$39 per share ( C$40/share previously), representing c 60% upside to the current share price.

Longfor Group – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Longfor Group’s FY 2024 results were acceptable.
  • The earnings decline was in line with expectations, driven by lower revenues and margins from the property development segment.
  • We project that Longfor’s contracted sales will continue declining in FY 2025, given the company’s slowdown in land bank replenishment.

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Apr 01
0

Daily Brief Consumer: BYD, Skyworth Group Limited, Fast Retailing, Toyota Motor, Chagee Holdings, Tegna Inc, Dalata Hotel, Mitra Adiperkasa, Installed Building Products, Lifeway Foods and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion
  • Skyworth (751 HK): Another Buyback
  • Fast Retailing (9983) | Buying Opportunity Ahead of Q2 Results
  • The Toyota Way Is Not to Rush, but to Gain a Foothold and Proceed with Caution
  • Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of China’s Premium Tea Brand
  • TEGNA’s Bold Bet on AI & Automation To Expand Margins—Here’s What’s Coming Next!
  • Quick Takeout Idea: Dalata Hotel (DHG.IR) – Probably Gets Sold Soon
  • Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Parting Clouds Ahead
  • Installed Building Products’ (IBP) Aggressive Acquisition Spree Is Reinventing the Installation Industry!
  • Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: Company Sales, Strategic Reviews, Buyouts and More

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Skyworth (751 HK): Another Buyback

By Arun George

  • On 27 March, Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK) launched a conditional buyback to acquire a maximum of 350.0m shares (15.67% of outstanding) at HK$3.11, a 15.2% premium to undisturbed price.
  • Unlike the previous buybacks, the controlling shareholder can vote. Therefore, while the buyback offer is unattractive, the shareholder vote will pass. 
  • Based on the irrevocables, a 100% share minority participation rate implies a minimum proration of 37.84%. The actual proration was around twice the minimum proration for the previous two. 

Fast Retailing (9983) | Buying Opportunity Ahead of Q2 Results

By Mark Chadwick

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP)  is set to report its second-quarter results on April 10, and we see an opportunity to buy ahead of a strong earnings release
  • We expect Fast Retailing to post Q2 sales of ¥905bn (+15% YoY), above consensus estimates of ¥881bn. EBIT projected at ¥133bn (+21% YoY), ahead of street expectations of ¥125bn.
  • Domestic Uniqlo monthly sales and quarterly results from global peers suggest strong sales momentum. 

The Toyota Way Is Not to Rush, but to Gain a Foothold and Proceed with Caution

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s unlikely that the transition to ‘company with audit committee’ will enhance the supervisory function, but it’s likely to speed up the decision-making process by delegating authority to executive directors.
  • Instead of achieving 30% female board member and moving to Company with US-type 3 Committees at once, Toyota will implement Toyota’s way firmly with BOD that is half independent directors.
  • The only way for Toyota, which faces several governance challenges, to uphold tradition of Toyoda family being at the top of management is to make the returns expected by investors.

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of China’s Premium Tea Brand

By IPO Boutique

  • As of December 31, 2024, their network comprised 6,440 teahouses, including 6,284 located in China.
  • Their net revenues increased by 844% to RMB4,640.2 million in 2023 from RMB491.7 million in 2022. 
  • We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of April.

TEGNA’s Bold Bet on AI & Automation To Expand Margins—Here’s What’s Coming Next!

By Baptista Research

  • TEGNA Inc. recently presented its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating both opportunities and challenges for potential investors.
  • The company reported a significant 20% year-over-year increase in total revenue for the fourth quarter, amounting to $871 million, primarily driven by political advertising revenues.
  • However, the political advertising performance nearly matched that of the 2020 election cycle, indicating the cyclical nature of this revenue stream.

Quick Takeout Idea: Dalata Hotel (DHG.IR) – Probably Gets Sold Soon

By Acid Investments

  • Dalata Hotel recently announced a formal sales process. Last few days have been really busy ;ppp and I’ve been using time on the road to conjure my “tin-foil hat” hypotheses and squeezing out whatever spare time I have to eke out this article.
  • Before going on, I’d like to highlight that amidst the market chaos, there seems to be a fair few interesting things popping – for e.g. last week, I highlighted DLTR selling off its FD stake and how DLTR deserved a rerating; in other news, Intel has also successfully divested its memory chip business (this time, IP and manpower) over to Sk Hynix, netting a ~1.9b cash infusion and also an indication of focus on its core “less-commoditized” logic chips business.
  • Tan Lip Bu also finished acquiring his 25m worth of shares at ~$23.96 per share. Yet, INTC has traded down with the rest of its boys, as the semicon indices continually to get smacked downwards. Exciting times ahead.

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Parting Clouds Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Mitra Adiperkasa reported a solid finish to the year with positive sequential growth in 4Q2024, although it was impacted by the delayed iPhone 16 launch, which reduced its peak quarter.
  • MAP Aktif Adiperkasa was the core growth driver, and its 4Q2024 was more seasonally strong at 28% of FY2024, with its regional expansion also helping to drive growth in FY2024. 
  • Mitra Adiperkasa remains a core retail proxy for Indonesia, with an increasing regional edge, and stronger growth prospects for FY2025. Valuations look extremely attractive on 9.9x FY2025E PER.

Installed Building Products’ (IBP) Aggressive Acquisition Spree Is Reinventing the Installation Industry!

By Baptista Research

  • Installed Building Products reported mixed results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, reflecting both opportunities and challenges in its various segments.
  • During the fiscal year, the company achieved record revenues and profitability, driven by organic growth across its residential markets and a series of acquisitions that expanded its geographic footprint.
  • Positive aspects from the earnings discussion include the robust performance in the residential end markets, particularly in single-family and multifamily installations.

Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: Company Sales, Strategic Reviews, Buyouts and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Lifeway Foods anticipates a sale to Danone, with AGM negotiations expected; SpringWorks Therapeutics in buyout talks with Merck KGaA.
  • Sage Therapeutics rejected Biogen’s offer, initiating strategic review; Kronos Bio undergoes strategic review post-trial discontinuation.
  • Microstrategy trades at NAV premium; OCI N.V. plans asset sales and dividends; Liquidia prepares for drug commercialization.

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Apr 01
0

Daily Brief Australia: Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX IO Futures rose $2.25/ton over the week, closing at $102.25/ton, buoyed by seasonal steel demand and technical support above 9D and 21D DMAs.
  • Implied volatility in iron ore options fell sharply YoY (ATM IV -36%, 10-delta puts -41%), making long volatility positions more affordable.
  • Futures and options open interest rose 6.85% WoW, with Financial Institutions increasing net long positions, reinforcing bullish positioning.

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Apr 01
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Corporation, Korean Air Lines and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha’s Surprise Gift Disclosure: Three Major Takeaways
  • Fat Inheritance Taxes for Hanwha Group Chairman Kim’s Three Sons Post Receiving Hanwha Corp Shares
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

Hanwha’s Surprise Gift Disclosure: Three Major Takeaways

By Sanghyun Park

  • The chances of a Hanwha Corp-Hanwha Energy merger just dropped significantly. With the brothers now owning 43%, the merger’s effectively off.
  • The three brothers face a KRW 200B gift tax bill and need liquidity. They’ll raise cash via Hanwha Energy’s IPO, with the youngest brother set to sell a 10% stake.
  • Hanwha Corp will likely fund its Hanwha Aerospace rights issue through a rights offering, using KRW 1.3 trillion from Hanwha Energy, after shutting down merger rumors.

Fat Inheritance Taxes for Hanwha Group Chairman Kim’s Three Sons Post Receiving Hanwha Corp Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Hanwha Group Chairman Kim Seung-youn (born in 1952) made a major move to give 11.32% of his shares in Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) to his three sons.
  • It is estimated that the three sons will need to pay nearly 222 billion won in inheritance taxes associated with receiving additional stakes in Hanwha Corp.
  • Because the three sons need to pay for the high amounts of inheritance taxes, Hanwha Corp is likely to raise the dividend payout in the next several years.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2025.
  • Among the 38 holdcos/opcos, there have been several pairs that have resulted in significant price ratio divergence which could provide trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal.
  • Given the resumption in short selling in Korea, there is going to be a lot more interest in pair trades in Korea, especially among the major Korean holdcos/opcos. 

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Apr 01
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Isoteam Ltd, Sasseur REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Buyback Consideration Notches Higher; ISOTeam CEO Increases Stake
  • REIT Watch – S-REITs with China retail assets log mixed 2024 performance; may benefit from consumption push

Buyback Consideration Notches Higher; ISOTeam CEO Increases Stake

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a net outflow of S$151 million from March 21-27.
  • Venture Corporation bought back 203,000 shares at S$12.51, accelerating its Share Buyback Plan from February 21.
  • ISOTeam’s 1HFY25 revenue increased 4.2% to S$65.3 million, with A&A contributing 46% of total revenue.

REIT Watch – S-REITs with China retail assets log mixed 2024 performance; may benefit from consumption push

By Geoff Howie

  • S-REITs with retail assets in China show mixed 2024 performance with stable occupancies but negative rental reversions amid cautious consumer sentiment.
  • CapitaLand China Trust’s retail NPI increased 1.9% y-o-y in FY2024, with stable occupancy at 98.2% and negative rental reversion.
  • Sasseur REIT’s portfolio occupancy reached 98.9% by end 2024, with double-digit sales growth during Lunar New Year 2025.

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Apr 01
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Daily Brief Indonesia: Mitra Adiperkasa, Indika Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Parting Clouds Ahead
  • Indika Energy – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) – Parting Clouds Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Mitra Adiperkasa reported a solid finish to the year with positive sequential growth in 4Q2024, although it was impacted by the delayed iPhone 16 launch, which reduced its peak quarter.
  • MAP Aktif Adiperkasa was the core growth driver, and its 4Q2024 was more seasonally strong at 28% of FY2024, with its regional expansion also helping to drive growth in FY2024. 
  • Mitra Adiperkasa remains a core retail proxy for Indonesia, with an increasing regional edge, and stronger growth prospects for FY2025. Valuations look extremely attractive on 9.9x FY2025E PER.

Indika Energy – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results

By Trung Nguyen

  • Indika Energy’s FY 2024 results were weak as expected in our view, due to significant challenges amid declining coal prices, with no contributions from its investments in non-coal businesses so far.
  • The balance sheet worsened significantly during the year.
  • That said, liquidity remained sound.

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Apr 01
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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.

By Sankalp Singh

  • SEBI intervenes on constantly changing Option contract specifications. NSE halts expiry day shift indefinitely & awaits clarity from regulator. 
  • IVs slid lower to 11% levels – extended weekend being a primary factor. Risk premia is nearing historically low extremes. “Low & Down” state persists for the Vol-Regime model.
  • Tactical Implications: (1) Scale back Vol harvesting structures as “Low & Down” Vol-state persists. (2) Reverse Calendars for long gamma exposure to upcoming events. Utilize Low IVs & curve Contango.

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