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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Cantabil Retail India, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV, Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd, Geo Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Cantabil Retail Ltd- Inventory Concerns Evident
  • BWMX; 4Q Review: Remaining Focused in Uncertain Times; Reiterate Buy, PT
  • Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd – Actinver Research – FEMSA 4Q24: Better than expected (Quick View)
  • Geo Holdings (2681 JP) – Q3 Sales Improve, but Costs Weigh on OP
  • Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings

Cantabil Retail Ltd- Inventory Concerns Evident

By Nitin Mangal

  • Cantabil Retail India (CANT IN) is one of the few vertically integrated garment players and has a store count of 576 and retail space of 7.4 lakh sq.ft.
  • The company has done well over the last five years to improve its financial position; it has grown its topline at a healthy rate while margins have improved significantly.
  • But having said that, we have concerns with elevated inventory levels that have remained high historically for a garment player. Moreover, some capital advances and RPT should also be considered.

BWMX; 4Q Review: Remaining Focused in Uncertain Times; Reiterate Buy, PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $22.50 price target and raising our 2025 revenue projection, but becoming more conservative on margins and introducing 2026 projections after Betterware de Mexico announced 4Q24 results which demonstrated material top line upside, driven by JAFRA Mexico’s over 20% YoY revenue growth.
  • That said, 4Q24 EBITDA and EPS were below Street expectations, as JAFRA Mexico margins slightly weakened YoY and the company was impacted by supply chain issues and FX.
  • Further, initial 2025 guidance continued the trends with top line guide above and EBITDA below Street consensus.

Fomento Economico Mexica-Ubd – Actinver Research – FEMSA 4Q24: Better than expected (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Sales of P$208.3bn were 12.8% higher YoY, better than our estimates and consensus, driven by healthy growth across all segments, FX tailwinds, KOF’s solid results, and inorganic growth (4Q24 was the first full quarter reflecting the Delek acquisition).
  • SSS at Proximity Americas reached 3.8%, better vs 3Q24 and our estimates.
  • For the third consecutive quarter, nonetheless, traffic declined (2.8%), while ticket grew 6.8% YoY.

Geo Holdings (2681 JP) – Q3 Sales Improve, but Costs Weigh on OP

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Sales improve in Q3 but personnel and store opening costs weigh on OP – Although Q1-3 FY3/25 sales declined -3.4% YoY to ¥316.16bn, reflecting the difficult annual comps for new games and consoles in H1, in Q3 the absence of this drag meant that this quarter alone rose +4.3% YoY to ¥116.43bn.
  • Demand for reuse clothes and smartphones remained robust, buoyed by store openings, year-end sales for clothes and price conscious consumers.
  • However, increased hiring, base salary increases and credit card fees continued to eat into OP, which in FY3/25 Q1-3 fell -26.4% YoY to ¥9.82bn.

Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Most shareholder benefits items can be used in Japan. There’s history of more companies abolishing shareholder benefits programs because they believed that shareholder returns should conducted rather than shareholder benefits.
  • Amid rising foreign ownership and the dissolution of cross-shareholdings, more companies have begun to reverse the trend toward companies approaching individual shareholders with shareholder benefits programs.
  • The fact that stock prices of companies offering shareholder benefits tended to fall lower during stock market plunges may be due to the fact that they were mostly defensive stocks.

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Mar 01
0

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Sun Art Retail, Japan Post Bank, LG Chem Ltd, Mobvista, JX Advanced Metals, Tencent, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • 7&I (3382) – MBO Off, SC “Engaging Constructively with ACT”, Skepticism Higher, Questions And More
  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): BABA Takes Massive Hit After Inking SPA @ HK$1.38
  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Another BIG Offering of US$4bn Expected; Overhang Will Be Removed
  • Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang
  • Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista, Xtep, Onewo, Bonny International
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025
  • Tencent (700 HK): Expiry-Day Recap; Intra-Day Swing of 4.1%.
  • Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback
  • Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings

7&I (3382) – MBO Off, SC “Engaging Constructively with ACT”, Skepticism Higher, Questions And More

By Travis Lundy

  • The MBO is off. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn’t surprising.
  • 7&i says they “continue to engage constructively with ACT and alternate proposals but news articles suggest that almost 6mos after proposing an NDA, ACT still haven’t had access to financials.
  • The shares are off hard today to a level below where ACT’s first bid was considered “not even worth discussing”. There will be questions at the AGM and before.

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): BABA Takes Massive Hit After Inking SPA @ HK$1.38

By David Blennerhassett

  • HK$1.38/Share. That’s the takeaway as Alibaba Group (9988 HK) enters an SPA to offload its 78.7% stake in Sun Art (6808 HK) at HK$1.38/share, a 44.4% discount to last close.
  • The buyer, Paragon Shine, an entity under Chinese PE outfit DCP Capital, is paying ~HK$12.3bn compared to BABA’s HK$28.1bn purchase of a 51% stake in October 2020.
  • Should the SPA complete, an unconditional MGO is triggered. Minorities tendering can receive up to HK$1.58/share. But the question is: why would BABA be cashing out at this price?

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Another BIG Offering of US$4bn Expected; Overhang Will Be Removed

By Brian Freitas

Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • The Offering comes in lighter than expected. The buyback is smaller than expected. The resultant overhang is larger than expected. 
  • The index flows around the delivery date are well-understood. They are what they are.
  • Shareholder structure is such that this is not quite a new IPO but needs a lot of new shareholders. BUT… there is one redeeming feature one should not ignore.

Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live

By Sanghyun Park

  • With this new rule, the FSS is flagging shaky rights offerings early, signaling a likely correction request—and often, the first step toward the deal getting axed.
  • Spot the red flags early and use the window before the FSS drops the hammer to position for a reversal play.
  • The FSS’s early notice makes a reversal likely as traders bet on the deal getting nuked after the initial disclosure drop.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista, Xtep, Onewo, Bonny International

By David Blennerhassett

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is scheduled to be listed on 19 March 2025, at the prime market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange at an expected valuation of ~$5.3bn.
  • Fast-Entry inclusion for the one global index can take place on 25 March if the stock price surges by ~30% or more on the first trading day.
  • Review inclusion given failed fast-entries for both global indices, is expected in August and September 2025.

Tencent (700 HK): Expiry-Day Recap; Intra-Day Swing of 4.1%.

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • During yesterday’s Option expiration day, Tencent (700 HK) experienced an intra-day swing of 4.1%.
  • Trading in the afternoon oscillated around the prominent 500 strike level. Around 66% of calls and 2% of puts expired in the money.
  • Volume was lower than in the preceding days; a total of 38 million shares were traded, with the morning session accounting for 53% of the volume.

Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS’s aggressive net buying over the past four months? Just a 3% buffer rebalance—not some structural bullish call on K-stocks.
  • Street intel points to NPS capping buys in the low-14% range, 1%p below target, only defending against dips. With short selling back on from March 31, further buying looks unlikely.
  • With NPS stepping back and retail still weak, no real size remains on the buy side. Short flow could hit harder than expected—time to price it in and adjust positioning.

Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Most shareholder benefits items can be used in Japan. There’s history of more companies abolishing shareholder benefits programs because they believed that shareholder returns should conducted rather than shareholder benefits.
  • Amid rising foreign ownership and the dissolution of cross-shareholdings, more companies have begun to reverse the trend toward companies approaching individual shareholders with shareholder benefits programs.
  • The fact that stock prices of companies offering shareholder benefits tended to fall lower during stock market plunges may be due to the fact that they were mostly defensive stocks.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Australia: Kinatico and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Kinatico Interview Transcript post H1 FY25 result
  • Kinatico Ltd – HIgher-margin SaaS revenue, flat costs propel EBITDA

Kinatico Interview Transcript post H1 FY25 result

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • RaaS Research Group interviewed CEO Michael Ivanchenko post the H1 FY25 results.

Kinatico Ltd – HIgher-margin SaaS revenue, flat costs propel EBITDA

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
  • The company has reported H1 FY25 adjusted EBITDA of $2.3m, up 17% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and 10% ahead of our forecast.
  • Reported EBITDA was $2.1m, up 9% on the pcp.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, SL Corp, HSD Engine Co., Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback
  • Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (3 March 2025)
  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 43 Companies in Korea in March 2025

Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS’s aggressive net buying over the past four months? Just a 3% buffer rebalance—not some structural bullish call on K-stocks.
  • Street intel points to NPS capping buys in the low-14% range, 1%p below target, only defending against dips. With short selling back on from March 31, further buying looks unlikely.
  • With NPS stepping back and retail still weak, no real size remains on the buy side. Short flow could hit harder than expected—time to price it in and adjust positioning.

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (3 March 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 3 March.
  • Our top 10 Korean stock picks from 14 to 28 January are down on average 1.8%, slightly outperforming KOSPI which is down 2.2% in the same period.
  • The top 10 Korean stock picks (bi-weekly) include SL Corp, Korea Electric Terminal, BNK Financial, S1, LX International, Doubleugames, Samsung C&T, Amorepacific Corp (pref), SK Telecom, and POSCO International. 

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 43 Companies in Korea in March 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • This insight provide a list of 43 stocks (2 KOSPI and 41 KOSDAQ) with end of mandatory lock-up periods for certain shares in March 2025.
  • Some of the companies mentioned in this insight which highlights the end of major lockup periods in March could help to narrow down the list of candidates for potential shorting.
  • Among these 43 stocks, the top five market cap stocks that could be sold after end of lock-up/total outstanding shares include Hanwha Engine, GI Innovation, Orum Therapeutics, and Angel Robotics.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Arwana Citramulia, BFI Finance Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Capacity-Driven Growth Ahead
  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – On a Convincing Turn

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Capacity-Driven Growth Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Arwana Citramulia published a solid set of FY2024 results, with sales growth to +7.4% YoY, although FY2024 net profit was down slightly due to cost pressures and higher promotional spending.
  • The company continues to see a favourable product mix shift towards higher-end tiles, especially its ARNA porcelain brand. New capacity coming on stream in 2025 will provide a further boost.
  • The gas subsidy has yet to be confirmed for the ceramic industry, but expectations are that it will come through shortly. Arwana Citramulia valuations remain attractive, with higher growth ahead.

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – On a Convincing Turn

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia booked a strong finish to FY2024, as bookings increased by YoY and HoH, with the NPF ratio falling at the same time leading to higher revenues. 
  • The company’s loan growth momentum has picked up considerably as indicated by management in the previous quarter, which should be reassuring for investors, with growth set to continue in 2025.
  • BFI Finance Indonesia has yet to see a meaningful contribution from its collaboration with GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, which is a potential future growth driver. Valuations attractive on PBV to ROE. 

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Ohmyhome and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Price Rise Keeps Indian Rubber Production Buoyant In 2024
  • OMH: Backdrop of Industry Fundamentals, Positive Implications

Price Rise Keeps Indian Rubber Production Buoyant In 2024

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Production up 3.18% YoY and imports up 19.42% in 2024  
  • Production-Consumption gap 526,000 tons  
  • Commerce Minister dodges floor price plea by smallholders

OMH: Backdrop of Industry Fundamentals, Positive Implications

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • The number of units in the company’s property management segment grew 23% sequentially in 3Q24 to 9,283 from 7,560 at the end of 2Q24.
  • OMH attributes this to its expanded presence in the property management space.
  • Its goal is to continue to increase the number of units under management, which Ohmyhome believes will contribute to growing Property Management segment and consolidated revenue, in part reflecting cross-promotional opportunities as a growth driver.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief United States: Entegris Inc, Intel Corp, Kestra Medical Technologies, Crude Oil, Imunon , Lantheus Holdings, Ohmyhome and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Entegris (ENTG US) Promotion to S&P MidCap400
  • Intel Former Board Members Warn Against Rumoured TSMC Takeover Of Intel Foundry
  • Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): Medical Device IPO Story Easy to Digest Amidst Market Volatility
  • [ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures
  • IMNN: Phase 3 Ovarian Cancer Trial to get Underway in Mar 2025
  • LNTH: 2025 Guidance Provided
  • OMH: Backdrop of Industry Fundamentals, Positive Implications

Entegris (ENTG US) Promotion to S&P MidCap400

By Travis Lundy

  • Last night, the S&P announced that with the deletion of Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) from the S&P Midcap 400, Entegris Inc (ENTG US) would replace it.
  • Entegris is a company providing Materials Solutions and Purity Solutions to the semiconductor industry (they sell to circuit/memory cos, SPE mfrs, gas/chem cos, wafer growers, etc.
  • Because of how this company is being added, it is a bit interesting. It will be effective Wednesday 5 March at the close with US$1.2bn to buy.

Intel Former Board Members Warn Against Rumoured TSMC Takeover Of Intel Foundry

By William Keating

  • Four former, long term Intel board members yesterday warned against any plans to have TSMC take over Intel Foundry, their second time weighing in on the future of the company
  • They posit that TSMC is under pressure from the US Administration with Taiwan security being used as a bargaining chip
  • They’re not wrong in their assertions that it would be a terrible idea, both for the US and for TSMC, but these are days where anything can happen. Let’s see

Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): Medical Device IPO Story Easy to Digest Amidst Market Volatility

By IPO Boutique

  • Wearable defibrillator maker, Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS US) is set to debut on Thursday (3/6) seeking a cash raise of up to $160 million and a valuation between $667m-$762.
  • The deal is considered well-oversubscribed from continued 1-on-1 conversions and high-quality engagements.
  • Given the financials and sector in which this company operates in and the strong backing (Bain Capital), we continue to believe this IPO will be well-received despite any market volatility.

[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.
  • U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela.

IMNN: Phase 3 Ovarian Cancer Trial to get Underway in Mar 2025

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • On February 27, 2025, Imunon, Inc. (IMNN) announced financial results for 2024 and provided a business update.
  • The company is currently finishing preparations to conduct a Phase 3 clinical trial of its lead development compound, IMNN-001, in the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer.
  • We anticipate the 500-patient trial will initiate before the end of the first quarter of 2025.

LNTH: 2025 Guidance Provided

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Lantheus is a leader in radiopharmaceutical offerings in oncology & precision diagnostics.
  • It offers a portfolio of diagnostic & therapeutic products directly & via partnerships & licensing.
  • The primary revenue driver is Pylarify, a PET tracer for PSMA-expressing prostate cancer.

OMH: Backdrop of Industry Fundamentals, Positive Implications

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • The number of units in the company’s property management segment grew 23% sequentially in 3Q24 to 9,283 from 7,560 at the end of 2Q24.
  • OMH attributes this to its expanded presence in the property management space.
  • Its goal is to continue to increase the number of units under management, which Ohmyhome believes will contribute to growing Property Management segment and consolidated revenue, in part reflecting cross-promotional opportunities as a growth driver.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief China: Mobvista, Tencent, Alibaba Group Holding , ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, China Mobile, Xiaomi Corp, BeiGene and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista, Xtep, Onewo, Bonny International
  • Tencent (700 HK): Expiry-Day Recap; Intra-Day Swing of 4.1%.
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.
  • Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)
  • China Mobile (941 HK) Pullback Offers a Tactical Re-Entry Opportunity
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista, Xtep, Onewo, Bonny International

By David Blennerhassett

Tencent (700 HK): Expiry-Day Recap; Intra-Day Swing of 4.1%.

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • During yesterday’s Option expiration day, Tencent (700 HK) experienced an intra-day swing of 4.1%.
  • Trading in the afternoon oscillated around the prominent 500 strike level. Around 66% of calls and 2% of puts expired in the money.
  • Volume was lower than in the preceding days; a total of 38 million shares were traded, with the morning session accounting for 53% of the volume.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Feb-2025): HK halts commercial land sales to cure office slump.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Hong Kong has halted land sales in order to boost the office market within the region.
  • Singapore’s Centurion saw their profits more than double to $257M, driven by soaring property valuations.
  • Alibaba announces plans to invest a substantial $53 billion in AI infrastructure development.

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025
  • January’s revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost
  • We take down emerging consensus view that “all trade disruptions are good for carriers”

China Mobile (941 HK) Pullback Offers a Tactical Re-Entry Opportunity

By Nico Rosti

  • In our last insight covering  China Mobile (941 HK) we said the stock was overbought. It made a sharp pullback last week that may turn into a good BUY opportunity.
  • Support levels to buy range from 79.1 to 76.4, assuming this pullback is a buy-the-dip scenario, something we will discuss in this insight.
  • If the stock resumes its rally, the next WEEKLY profit targets will be between 82.64 and 84.4.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Xiaomi Corp
  • In the US, the second estimate for Q4/24 real GDP was unchanged from the advance estimate at an annualised rate of 2.3% q-o-q, driven by a 4.2% increase (unchanged) in consumer spending. That said, the core PCE price index was revised upwards to 2.7% (from 2.5% in the advance estimate).
  • Full-year real GDP growth in 2024 stood at 2.8% y-o-y (vs. 2.9% in 2023). Separately, durable goods orders rose 3.1% m-o-m in January (2.0% e / -1.8% p).

BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 4Q24, BeiGene (6160 HK) reported U.S. sales of Brukinsa of $616M, up 97% YoY and 22% QoQ, with 60%+ of demand growth coming from expanded use in CLL. 
  • Brukinsa holds 25% market share in new patient starts in the U.S. in CLL, followed by Calquence (20%). For the first time, Brukinsa’s quarterly U.S. revenue outpaced that of Calquence.
  • Beigene has guided for 2025 revenue of $4.9–5.3B (up 29–39% YoY), driven by Brukinsa’s U.S. leadership position and continued global expansion in both Europe and other markets.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief India: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Onesource Specialty Pharma, Cantabil Retail India and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Price Rise Keeps Indian Rubber Production Buoyant In 2024
  • Post Demerger Outlook: OneSource Specialty Pharma- India’s First Multi-Modality CDMO
  • Cantabil Retail Ltd- Inventory Concerns Evident

Price Rise Keeps Indian Rubber Production Buoyant In 2024

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Production up 3.18% YoY and imports up 19.42% in 2024  
  • Production-Consumption gap 526,000 tons  
  • Commerce Minister dodges floor price plea by smallholders

Post Demerger Outlook: OneSource Specialty Pharma- India’s First Multi-Modality CDMO

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Onesource Specialty Pharma (ONESOURC IN) has transitioned from a niche player to a multi-modality CDMO powerhouse through strategic restructuring, rapid revenue expansion, and aggressive capacity building.
  • With a projected INR1,400 crore revenue in FY25 (INR173 crore in FY24) and shifting from MSA to CSA contracts, OS is stabilizing its revenue model, tapping into high-growth segments.
  • By leveraging a first-mover advantage in GLP-1, regulatory strength, and a $100 million capex plan, OS is positioning itself to become a billion-dollar global CDMO leader within the next 3-4Yrs.

Cantabil Retail Ltd- Inventory Concerns Evident

By Nitin Mangal

  • Cantabil Retail India (CANT IN) is one of the few vertically integrated garment players and has a store count of 576 and retail space of 7.4 lakh sq.ft.
  • The company has done well over the last five years to improve its financial position; it has grown its topline at a healthy rate while margins have improved significantly.
  • But having said that, we have concerns with elevated inventory levels that have remained high historically for a garment player. Moreover, some capital advances and RPT should also be considered.

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Mar 01
0

Daily Brief Japan: JX Advanced Metals, Aoyama Zaisan Networks Co Lt, Resona Holdings, Restar Holdings Corporation, Geo Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025
  • Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929 JP) – Laying the Groundwork for Sustained Growth
  • Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard
  • Restar (3156 JP) – Positioning for Future Demand Upturn
  • Geo Holdings (2681 JP) – Q3 Sales Improve, but Costs Weigh on OP
  • Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is scheduled to be listed on 19 March 2025, at the prime market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange at an expected valuation of ~$5.3bn.
  • Fast-Entry inclusion for the one global index can take place on 25 March if the stock price surges by ~30% or more on the first trading day.
  • Review inclusion given failed fast-entries for both global indices, is expected in August and September 2025.

Aoyama Zaisan Networks Company (8929 JP) – Laying the Groundwork for Sustained Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Well positioned to capitalize on Japan’s intergenerational wealth transfer megatrend – The company continues to demonstrate positive growth momentum as evidenced by the double-digit topline growth in Q1-4 FY12/24.
  • The recent Chester Group acquisition should reinforce its position to ride the powerful trend in Japan’s aging demographics and intergenerational wealth transfer.
  • We think the company’s strategic approach towards allocating capital to the growth of the business while minimizing shareholder dilution through share buybacks demonstrates a commitment to shareholder value and financial discipline.

Japanese Big Cap Banks – Three Scorecard Stand-Outs, and One Wildcard

By Victor Galliano

  • We introduce our Japanese big cap banks scorecard; from this, we pick Resona, Mizuho and SMFG with our wildcard being Shizuoka
  • The scorecard metrics measure leverage to higher interest rates, LDRs, levels of cash balances, bond exposures, cross-holdings and valuations; from this, we derive a weighted ranking for each bank
  • We remove Concordia from our buy list; we prefer Shizuoka for its better leverage to rising rates and high ratio of cross-holdings to market capitalization with a holdings reduction plan

Restar (3156 JP) – Positioning for Future Demand Upturn

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-3 FY3/25 results underlined Restar’s positive sales growth profile (+11.2% YoY) driven by its roll-up M&A strategy, a strong demand environment for cameras and PC-related products in consumer products, and smartphone demand driving EMS activity YoY.
  • However, headwinds persist in the form of continued delay in demand recovery from the Industrial sector, a sales mix lowering gross margin, and negative impact from a strengthening Japanese yen.
  • We have not seen concrete evidence of cost savings from post-merger integration activities. 

Geo Holdings (2681 JP) – Q3 Sales Improve, but Costs Weigh on OP

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Sales improve in Q3 but personnel and store opening costs weigh on OP – Although Q1-3 FY3/25 sales declined -3.4% YoY to ¥316.16bn, reflecting the difficult annual comps for new games and consoles in H1, in Q3 the absence of this drag meant that this quarter alone rose +4.3% YoY to ¥116.43bn.
  • Demand for reuse clothes and smartphones remained robust, buoyed by store openings, year-end sales for clothes and price conscious consumers.
  • However, increased hiring, base salary increases and credit card fees continued to eat into OP, which in FY3/25 Q1-3 fell -26.4% YoY to ¥9.82bn.

Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Most shareholder benefits items can be used in Japan. There’s history of more companies abolishing shareholder benefits programs because they believed that shareholder returns should conducted rather than shareholder benefits.
  • Amid rising foreign ownership and the dissolution of cross-shareholdings, more companies have begun to reverse the trend toward companies approaching individual shareholders with shareholder benefits programs.
  • The fact that stock prices of companies offering shareholder benefits tended to fall lower during stock market plunges may be due to the fact that they were mostly defensive stocks.

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