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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Lynas Corp Ltd, Mesoblast Ltd, Auric Mining, Barton Gold Holdings , Pureprofile Ltd, Vertex Minerals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Will depressed prices force a Lynas raising?
  • Mesoblast (MSB AU): ‘Comparable’ Pricing for Ryoncil; US Commercialization Is Progressing
  • Auric Mining Limited – Turning Gold into Cash Flow
  • Barton Gold Holdings Limited – Building Towards Being the Next Producer in SA
  • Pureprofile Ltd – H1 FY25 outpaces RaaS forecasts and pcp
  • Vertex Minerals Limited – Building Towards Production


Will depressed prices force a Lynas raising?

By Money of Mine

  • Lynas, a six and a half billion dollar mining company, faced challenges in their half yearly results with higher unit costs and a significant decrease in cash position.
  • The company’s cash reserves have diminished by over $200 million, raising concerns about the sustainability of their operations in the current rare earths price environment.
  • Expansion projects in Mount Weld and Kalgoorlie are ongoing, with potential impacts on future financial performance and the need for additional financing options.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Mesoblast (MSB AU): ‘Comparable’ Pricing for Ryoncil; US Commercialization Is Progressing

By Tina Banerjee

  • Mesoblast Ltd (MSB AU) has announced pricing for Ryoncil in the U.S. in tandem with the economic value of treatment with product availability planned for the current quarter.
  • Wholesale acquisition cost of Ryoncil has been set at $194K per infusion. Ryoncil infusion is given twice per week for 4 weeks. This brings the full treatment cost to $1.55M.
  • The pricing is strategically determined against the cost of treating a child who dies of SR-aGvHD of $2.5M and calculated total benefits of patient outcomes using Ryoncil of $3.2–4.1M.

Auric Mining Limited – Turning Gold into Cash Flow

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Auric Mining Limited (ASX:AWJ) is a junior gold company aiming to take advantage of higher gold prices to generate cash flow from two key projects.
  • AWJ has been mining and tolling ore from the Jeffreys Find Project since late 2023 and has generated ~$105m in revenue from the production and sale of 27.6koz of gold.
  • To date, AWJ has received ~$12.9m in net proceeds from the project with further distributions to be received in 2H25.

Barton Gold Holdings Limited – Building Towards Being the Next Producer in SA

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Barton Gold Holdings Limited (ASX:BGD) is a junior gold company that is focused on progressing the development of the Tunkillia project after completing a scoping study in July 24.
  • The study highlighted the potential for an economic mining operation which would produce 833koz of gold and 1,993koz of silver over ~six years.
  • In addition to continuing development work, BGD continues to conduct exploration at Tunkillia and its Tarcoola project.

Pureprofile Ltd – H1 FY25 outpaces RaaS forecasts and pcp

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
  • Pureprofile has reported audited H1 FY25 results substantially ahead of the previous corresponding period (pcp) and our forecasts.
  • Revenue increased 23% to $29.7m, gross profit rose 25% to $16.3m and delivered a 55% margin, underlying EBITDA increased 39% to $3.3m and underlying NPAT jumped 139% to $1.8m, a record result for the company.

Vertex Minerals Limited – Building Towards Production

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Vertex Minerals Limited (ASX:VTX) is a junior gold company which is in the process of restarting mining operations at the Reward Gold Mine in NSW in order to take advantage of higher gold prices.
  • With the restart underway, CY25 is set to be the year that the company can show regular production and cash-flow generation from the mine.
  • Commissioning is underway with stockpiles to be processed first ahead of the ramp-up in underground mining which should provide the plant with fresh high-grade ore later in the year.

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Daily Brief South Korea: LG Chem Ltd, Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (January and February 2025)


Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live

By Sanghyun Park

  • With this new rule, the FSS is flagging shaky rights offerings early, signaling a likely correction request—and often, the first step toward the deal getting axed.
  • Spot the red flags early and use the window before the FSS drops the hammer to position for a reversal play.
  • The FSS’s early notice makes a reversal likely as traders bet on the deal getting nuked after the initial disclosure drop.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (January and February 2025)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in January and February 2025.
  • There were 37 companies in the Korean stock market that announced share buybacks in the past two months. On average, the share buyback announcements represented 2.3% of outstanding shares.
  • Some of the notable share buybacks by Korean companies in the past two months include Samsung Electronics, Celltrion, Hyundai Mobis, and INFOvine.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Raffles Medical Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Raffles Medical (RFMD SP): 2H24 Result, China Recovery, Buyback, and Dividend Raise Expectation


Raffles Medical (RFMD SP): 2H24 Result, China Recovery, Buyback, and Dividend Raise Expectation

By Tina Banerjee

  • Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP) reported mixed 2024 result. However, 2H24 revenue increased 15% YoY, operating profit rose 5% YoY, and adjusted PATMI jumped 38% YoY.
  • China operation is recovering, with revenue growing 10% YoY to S$65M in 2024. Three general hospitals in China have demonstrated strong potential for growth and have a positive outlook ahead.
  • Raffles has revised its dividend policy to pay out at least 50%. The company intends to buy back up to 100M ordinary shares over the next two years.

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Daily Brief India: Jio Financial Services, Premier Energies, Ultratech Cement, Zepto and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas: What Is Inside Jio Financial Services?
  • Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains
  • Event Driven: UltraTech’s Bold Foray into Wires & Cables 80,000+ Cr Market
  • Postcard from Bengaluru | Quick Commerce On-The-Ground


The Beat Ideas: What Is Inside Jio Financial Services?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) has launched a robust digital ecosystem with its flagship JioFinance app, enhancing its tech-driven financial service offerings.
  • The digital-first strategy minimizes legacy constraints, enabling personalized financial solutions that significantly boost efficiency and competitive advantage.
  • This evolution redefines traditional banking, positioning JFSL as a versatile, technology-led powerhouse for sustainable growth in India’s financial sector.

Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains

By Sumeet Singh

  • Premier Energies raised around US$337m after pricing the deal at the top end of the range in Sep 2024. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.
  • Premier Energies is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&M) services
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Event Driven: UltraTech’s Bold Foray into Wires & Cables 80,000+ Cr Market

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • UltraTech Cement, part of the Aditya Birla Group, is entering the 80,000+ crore wires & cables market with INR 1,800 crore investment, targeting a December 2026 plant launch in Gujarat.
  • The sector is highly fragmented, with no dominant player exceeding 20% market share, creating an opportunity for UltraTech to disrupt with its financial strength, backward integration, and superior product quality.
  • This move positions UltraTech as a diversified building materials leader, leveraging synergies with Hindalco to offer cost-efficient, high-quality electrical solutions, reshaping competition in the industry.

Postcard from Bengaluru | Quick Commerce On-The-Ground

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Quick Commerce offers infinite TAM with rapid metro adoption, but requires endless investment in faster delivery times to remain competitive.
  • Delivery partners bear the operational burden, working long hours for modest pay while tech stacks across competitors remain largely similar.
  • Despite investor excitement, QC margins remain elusive due to high competition, homogeneous offerings, and limited pricing power compared to food delivery.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara, Pt Cikarang Listrindo Tbk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • We view Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, primarily driven by the company’s strategic importance to Indonesia and SOE status (100% owned by the government).
  • PLN controls a 62% share of Indonesia’s upstream power generation, and is also the country’s sole downstream electric utility.
  • The company plays a critical role in ensuring affordable and reliable access to electricity for the population, as well as helping Indonesia transition to cleaner energy in the upstream sector (away from coal).

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Cikarang Listrindo
  • In the US, January new home sales fell 10.5% m-o-m to a three-month low of 657 k annualised units (680 k e / 734 k p). The decline reflects weather conditions (as several regions experienced record snowfall in January), as well as affordability concerns amid high prices and mortgage rates. Separately, building permits fell 0.6% (-0.7% p) in the same month.
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the US central bank should hold interest rates where they are and retain a “restrictive posture”. He added: “You can say that we are hitting our employment mandate, and now we have to get the price stability mandate under control.”

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Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, SpringWorks Therapeutics Inc, Cognex Corp, ACM Research, Monogram Orthopaedics , Perfect , Ring Energy Inc, SES AI Corp, Tuya Inc, VAALCO Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Nvidia: Jan-25 Beat, Apr-25 Beat, Blackwell Demand Is “extraordinary“, Gross Margins Will Improve
  • SpringWorks Therapeutics in Advanced Acquisition Talks with Merck KGaA Amid FDA Approval and Growth Potential
  • Cognex: Vision Quest – [Business Breakdowns, EP.206]
  • Kerrisdale Capital’s Sahm Adrangi on $ACMR’s price dislocation between Shanghai and NASDAQ listings
  • MGRM: Monogram announces regulatory update on its 510(k) premarket filing submission to the FDA. The company also provided updates on the Shalby Limited clinical trial in India.
  • PERF: Perfect Corp. Enters 2025 With the Acquisition of the Dominant Fashion Try-On Provider and New AI Shopping Assistant Offering Which Should Lead to Accelerating Growth
  • Ring Energy, Inc. – Core Area Acquisition Adds to CBP Scale
  • SES AI Corp. – 4Q Results Mark a ‘Phase Transition’ from Pure R&D to Commercialization
  • Tuya, Inc. – 4Q24 Earnings Show Continued Strength with 27% Y/Y Revenue Growth and Expense Control
  • VAALCO Energy, Inc. – Active 2025 Drilling Campaign Sets Stage for Future Growth


Nvidia: Jan-25 Beat, Apr-25 Beat, Blackwell Demand Is “extraordinary“, Gross Margins Will Improve

By Nicolas Baratte

  • CEO is clearly saying that demand is growing faster than expected and has visibility into 2025-26 revenues (we have a fairly good line of sight of investment in data centers)
  • Models are getting better and using up to 100x more computing power (ie chain of thought and reinforcement learning). The AI market is today Consumer, tomorrow Agentic, later on Physical.  
  • The stock is not expensive at 30x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27 EPS. Get over it.

SpringWorks Therapeutics in Advanced Acquisition Talks with Merck KGaA Amid FDA Approval and Growth Potential

By Special Situation Investments

  • SpringWorks Therapeutics is in advanced acquisition talks with Merck KGaA, following FDA approval for its drug Gomekli.
  • Merck’s acquisition strategy focuses on low-risk, value-creating oncology deals, aligning with SpringWorks’ FDA-approved treatments.
  • Estimated peak sales for SpringWorks’ drugs range from $600m to $1bn, suggesting a potential $85/share valuation.

Cognex: Vision Quest – [Business Breakdowns, EP.206]

By Business Breakdowns

  • Cognex is a leader in machine vision, providing ruggedized cameras and software for automation in manufacturing and logistics environments
  • Cognex’s products fall into four categories: Guide, Gauge, Inspect, and ID
  • ID includes Dataman products for reading barcodes and optical character recognition

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Kerrisdale Capital’s Sahm Adrangi on $ACMR’s price dislocation between Shanghai and NASDAQ listings

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • ACMR is a wafer fabrication equipment company that sells tools to semiconductor fabrication plants
  • The company operates in a sector dominated by oligopolies with strong competitive advantages
  • The symbiotic relationship between FABS and WFE makers creates barriers to entry for new competitors, providing long-term stability for the industry and companies like ACMR.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


MGRM: Monogram announces regulatory update on its 510(k) premarket filing submission to the FDA. The company also provided updates on the Shalby Limited clinical trial in India.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Monogram Technologies (NASDAQ: MGRM) is a medical device company developing a product solution architecture to enable patient-optimized orthopedic implants at scale by linking 3D printing and robotics with advanced pre-operative imaging.
  • The company delivered its first surgical robot in November 2023 and submitted its 510(k) on July 19th and the application passed the Administrative Review.
  • The first live in patient surgery OUS is expected in early 2025.

PERF: Perfect Corp. Enters 2025 With the Acquisition of the Dominant Fashion Try-On Provider and New AI Shopping Assistant Offering Which Should Lead to Accelerating Growth

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Perfect Corp. provides an AI and machine learning based B2B SaaS platform for virtual try on and marketing of beauty and fashion products as well as six mobile apps sold B2C for makeup suggestions, try-on, tutorials, photo and video editing and most recently, Gen AI creation and editing.
  • It is expanding its offering to new verticals and has strong IP as well as the largest database for AI training in the industry.
  • It has a dominant market share and serves almost all the major beauty brands worldwide.

Ring Energy, Inc. – Core Area Acquisition Adds to CBP Scale

By Water Tower Research

  • Ring is adding production and proved reserves in its core Central Basin Platform (CBP) through the $100-million asset acquisition of acreage offsetting its Shafter Lake operations in Andrews County, Texas from Lime Rock Resources IV, LP.
  • The assets consist of ~17,700 net acres (100% HBP) that are contiguous to Ring’s existing acreage. 3Q24 production averaged 2,300 BOE/d (>80% oil) from ~101 gross wells.
  • Management estimates that the acreage could support more than 40 gross drilling locations that are expected to compete for capital in the 2025 plan.

SES AI Corp. – 4Q Results Mark a ‘Phase Transition’ from Pure R&D to Commercialization

By Water Tower Research

  • SES AI marked an important milestone with its 4Q24 results, transitioning from pure-play R&D to active commercialization.
  • The company booked $2 million in revenue at a 63% gross margin from previously announced deals with (1) EV OEMs for battery materials discovery and (2) cells for drones.
  • SES AI also noted some of its 4Q cell revenue for drone applications was with SoftBank’s HAPS drone program, which suggests that it is building on the initial traction announced in the Data Blanket deal in this space. 

Tuya, Inc. – 4Q24 Earnings Show Continued Strength with 27% Y/Y Revenue Growth and Expense Control

By Water Tower Research

  • Tuya reported another solid quarter, with revenue of $82.1 million, up 27% Y/Y (revenue of $299 million in FY24 was up 30% Y/Y).
  • Gross margin stayed in the upper-40s (47.8%). IoT PaaS revenue grew 26% Y/Y to $59.3 million.
  • Cash and equivalents grew to $1,017 million, and the company has no debt. 

VAALCO Energy, Inc. – Active 2025 Drilling Campaign Sets Stage for Future Growth

By Water Tower Research

  • The FPSO Baobab Ivoirien MV10 at the Baobab oil field in Côte d’Ivoire ceased production on January 31, 2025, and the last lifting from the vessel was scheduled for around February 6, 2025.
  • The vessel is scheduled to be towed to shipyards in Dubai for a planned refurbishment on March 24, 2025.
  • Baobab production is expected to resume in 2026 when the refurbished FPSO is returned to the field. 

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Daily Brief China: WeDoctor Holdings, Wuhan Dameng Database, Li Auto , Trip.com, Orix JREIT Inc, VISEN Pharmaceuticals and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO
  • STAR 100: Quick Update to Expectations for Last-Minute Methodology Changes; Announcement Soon.
  • [Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule
  • We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering
  • Trip.com (TCOM) – Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?
  • Li Auto (2015 HK): Short Calls To Capitalize on High Volatility Amid Cautious Outlook
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (27-Feb-2025): Hotel Indigo Auckland for Sale – McVay & Whillans Realty.
  • Visen Pharmaceuticals (维升药业) IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Positive


We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO

By Andrei Zakharov

  • We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
  • We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
  • The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.  

STAR 100: Quick Update to Expectations for Last-Minute Methodology Changes; Announcement Soon.

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
  • The methodology for constituent selection for this index was revised yesterday. These revisions will influence the ADDs/DELs for the March 2025 review which is to be announced soon.
  • In this insight, we have presented our updated expectations for the new methodology.

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

By Eric Wen

  • Li Auto’s (LI) share surged 13% on photos released on its official Weibo of a BEV SUV slated for release in April, two months ahead of our expectation. 
  • Based on information released, we dialed up LI’s BEV forecast from 73K to 106K for 2025, contributing 20% of revenue instead of 15%. 
  • We raise LI’s TP from US$22 to US$25 but keep at SELL.

We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering

By Andrei Zakharov

  • According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.  
  • My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.
  • I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?

Trip.com (TCOM) – Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

By Acid Investments

  • This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.
  • This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.
  • I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.

Li Auto (2015 HK): Short Calls To Capitalize on High Volatility Amid Cautious Outlook

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Li Auto (2015 HK) has surged recently due to the announcement of its new Li i8 model, accompanied by a significant rise in implied volatility.
  • The elevated implied volatility, with one- and two-month levels above the 90th and 80th percentiles respectively, presents an opportunity for bearish and neutral investors to sell call options.
  • March and April expirations are preferred due to the earnings release in May. 

Asia Real Estate Tracker (27-Feb-2025): Hotel Indigo Auckland for Sale – McVay & Whillans Realty.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Hotel Indigo Auckland is up for sale by McVay Real Estate and Whillans Realty Group, offering a prime investment opportunity.
  • CDL Chairman accuses son of attempted coup, but Kwek remains CEO, ensuring stability within the company’s leadership.
  • Mapletree makes a strategic move by buying a Hong Kong site for $473M at a significant discount, positioning itself for future growth.

Visen Pharmaceuticals (维升药业) IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Positive

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Visen Pharmaceuticals is looking at raising up to USD 300m to list in Hong Kong.
  • The company has passed the hearing for the listing and filed a new version of the prospectus.
  • We look at the difference between previous filing and current filing. Most of the changes are not critical but we think overall it doesn’t look good.

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Daily Brief Japan: Seven & I Holdings, Tonami Holdings, Japan Post Bank, Ana Holdings, Daido Steel, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • 7&I (3382) – MBO Off, SC “Engaging Constructively with ACT”, Skepticism Higher, Questions And More
  • JPH Launches “MBO” (LBO with SARs for Family/Execs) For Trucker Tonami Holdings (9070). Too Cheap.
  • Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang
  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering
  • Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement – Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Feb 2025 Ranks
  • Daido Steel Co., Ltd (5471 JP): Research Update
  • Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings


7&I (3382) – MBO Off, SC “Engaging Constructively with ACT”, Skepticism Higher, Questions And More

By Travis Lundy

  • The MBO is off. Itochu Corp (8001 JP) has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn’t surprising.
  • 7&i says they “continue to engage constructively with ACT and alternate proposals but news articles suggest that almost 6mos after proposing an NDA, ACT still haven’t had access to financials.
  • The shares are off hard today to a level below where ACT’s first bid was considered “not even worth discussing”. There will be questions at the AGM and before.

JPH Launches “MBO” (LBO with SARs for Family/Execs) For Trucker Tonami Holdings (9070). Too Cheap.

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) announced an MBO for Tonami Holdings (9070 JP) whereby the family/execs will stay on. JPH will own 99.97%, the execs/family 0.03%.
  • This deal is yet another in a line of logistics deals dating back the last 2+ years where the premium has been quite big. This time is +74%. 
  • But this is not overly expensive. Makes me go hmmmm… 

Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang

By Travis Lundy

  • The Offering comes in lighter than expected. The buyback is smaller than expected. The resultant overhang is larger than expected. 
  • The index flows around the delivery date are well-understood. They are what they are.
  • Shareholder structure is such that this is not quite a new IPO but needs a lot of new shareholders. BUT… there is one redeeming feature one should not ignore.

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering

By Arun George

  • Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 416.1 million shares (including overallotment), worth around US$4.2 billion.
  • The offering includes a ToSTNeT-3 and an on-market buyback. Including the overallotment, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will reduce its stake from 61.50% to 50.00% of voting rights. 
  • Understanding the potential offer price requires looking at JPH’s past sales and recent large Japanese placements. The pricing date is likely 10 March.

Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement – Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results

By Sumeet Singh

  • Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
  • JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Feb 2025 Ranks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
  • The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-February 2025.

Daido Steel Co., Ltd (5471 JP): Research Update

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • Daido Steel’s cumulative FY24 Q1~Q3 earnings landed in line with the firm’s revised forecast, with the 9-month OP [IFRS basis] coming in at ¥34,070mil (-10.6% YoY) on sales of ¥433,961mil (-1.1% YoY).
  • The decline in OP is primarily due to tough comps – in FY23 the firm reported ¥7,200mil from real estate sales gains.
  • Although the 9-month OP has achieved 85% of the full-year guidance, Daido Steel did not change the full-year forecast due to some cost items such as fixed asset tax to be incurred in Q4.

Shareholder Benefits to Return Amid Rise in Foreign Ownership and Dissolution of Cross-Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Most shareholder benefits items can be used in Japan. There’s history of more companies abolishing shareholder benefits programs because they believed that shareholder returns should conducted rather than shareholder benefits.
  • Amid rising foreign ownership and the dissolution of cross-shareholdings, more companies have begun to reverse the trend toward companies approaching individual shareholders with shareholder benefits programs.
  • The fact that stock prices of companies offering shareholder benefits tended to fall lower during stock market plunges may be due to the fact that they were mostly defensive stocks.

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Daily Brief Utilities: PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara, Pt Cikarang Listrindo Tbk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Perusahaan Listrik (PLN) – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • We view Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, primarily driven by the company’s strategic importance to Indonesia and SOE status (100% owned by the government).
  • PLN controls a 62% share of Indonesia’s upstream power generation, and is also the country’s sole downstream electric utility.
  • The company plays a critical role in ensuring affordable and reliable access to electricity for the population, as well as helping Indonesia transition to cleaner energy in the upstream sector (away from coal).

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Cikarang Listrindo
  • In the US, January new home sales fell 10.5% m-o-m to a three-month low of 657 k annualised units (680 k e / 734 k p). The decline reflects weather conditions (as several regions experienced record snowfall in January), as well as affordability concerns amid high prices and mortgage rates. Separately, building permits fell 0.6% (-0.7% p) in the same month.
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the US central bank should hold interest rates where they are and retain a “restrictive posture”. He added: “You can say that we are hitting our employment mandate, and now we have to get the price stability mandate under control.”

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Daily Brief Industrials: Tonami Holdings, Premier Energies, Ana Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • JPH Launches “MBO” (LBO with SARs for Family/Execs) For Trucker Tonami Holdings (9070). Too Cheap.
  • Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Feb 2025 Ranks


JPH Launches “MBO” (LBO with SARs for Family/Execs) For Trucker Tonami Holdings (9070). Too Cheap.

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) announced an MBO for Tonami Holdings (9070 JP) whereby the family/execs will stay on. JPH will own 99.97%, the execs/family 0.03%.
  • This deal is yet another in a line of logistics deals dating back the last 2+ years where the premium has been quite big. This time is +74%. 
  • But this is not overly expensive. Makes me go hmmmm… 

Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains

By Sumeet Singh

  • Premier Energies raised around US$337m after pricing the deal at the top end of the range in Sep 2024. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.
  • Premier Energies is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&M) services
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Feb 2025 Ranks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
  • The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-February 2025.

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