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Daily Brief ECM: CATL Launches Hong Kong Secondary Listing to Fund European Expansion and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • CATL Launches Hong Kong Secondary Listing to Fund European Expansion
  • CATL IPO (Hong Kong) Valuation Analysis
  • CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case


CATL Launches Hong Kong Secondary Listing to Fund European Expansion

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) has launched its secondary listing in Hong Kong, aiming to raise funds primarily for the construction of its Hungary factory, according to its prospectus disclosed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Tuesday.
  • The move could become one of Hong Kong’s largest listings in recent years, with Bloomberg reporting a potential fundraising target exceeding $5 billion.
  • Shenzhen-listed CATL’s stock closed Tuesday at 251.8 yuan ($34.47), down 2.57% from the previous day, with a total market capitalization of 1.1 trillion yuan. The company’s valuation peaked at 1.6 trillion yuan in December 2021.

CATL IPO (Hong Kong) Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our valuation analysis suggests that CATL is undervalued. Our base case valuation suggests implied market cap of 1.5 trillion CNY, which represents 33% higher than current levels. 
  • Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a market cap valuation range of 1.2 trillion CNY to 1.8 trillion CNY. 
  • We estimate CATL to generate revenue of 431.7 billion RMB (up 16.8% YoY) and net profit of 61.4 billion RMB (up 10.5% YoY) in 2025. 

CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, has filed for an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.     
  • CATL’s global EV battery market share, measured in GWh, rose from 27.6% in 2019 to 36.8% in November 2024.
  • The investment case rests on a leading market position, forecasted return to growth, peer-leading profitability, cash generation, peer-leading FCF margin and an attractive valuation. 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF
  • Samsung’s 10T KRW Buyback Phase 2: The Timing of the Drop and How the Structure Is Looking
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Fall but Foreigners Buying Non-H/A Pair HK Stocks
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Paragon REIT, Kaonavi, Arcadium Lithium, Sun Art Retail, HKBN, and Seven & I
  • Zenhoren (5845 JP): MUFG (8306 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle
  • Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) – RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?


Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday after the close, Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) made a short announcement that it would cancel its equity offering and TSE Prime application announced 10 Feb, discussed here.
  • I had suggested that the offering price, or a large dip would be a buy. I rescind that recommendation immediately.
  • The reason for the cancellation? “Matters that need to be confirmed in relation to our internal control system have been discovered and that will take time.”

Samsung’s 10T KRW Buyback Phase 2: The Timing of the Drop and How the Structure Is Looking

By Sanghyun Park

  • The 2nd phase of the buyback, around 3T KRW with a 3-month window, could drop this week, likely by mid- or end-week.
  • The market’s worried Samsung might not retire the shares this time and could handle them differently.
  • The latest talk is that Samsung will retire the shares immediately, like Phase 1. This could be an inflection point for solid short-term price action—time to set up positions.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

By Travis Lundy

  • There was a HUGE jump in value traded this week – HK$655bn vs ~$300bn for 5-days of trading the last several weeks.
  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was the big buy with net buying 7 of 8 days post-CNY and a huge end of week. Tencent was sold.
  • There appears to be a flight to Chinese equities by foreigners and SB are taking part with risk-on style trading. Watch Hang Seng rebal news this week!

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Fall but Foreigners Buying Non-H/A Pair HK Stocks

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are lower again (new 5yr low) in the first full week after the CNY holiday. HK stocks up BIG vs A-shares. H/A discounts slightly narrower on average.
  • That tells you that the big winners in HK the past two weeks are those stocks without A-shares. This past week Healthcare sector pairs saw the best relative H-share performance.
  • Foreigners returning to HK markets but less to the H in H/A pairs. They are buying HK/China “foreign-investor beta” not China breadth. Feels spivvy, and short-term.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Paragon REIT, Kaonavi, Arcadium Lithium, Sun Art Retail, HKBN, and Seven & I

By David Blennerhassett


Zenhoren (5845 JP): MUFG (8306 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Zenhoren (5845 JP) announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP). MUFG aims to make Zenhoren a consolidated subsidiary.  
  • The offer is for a minimum of 11.7m shares (44.36% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 13.0m shares (49.55% ownership ratio) at JPY1,000, a 31.9% premium to the last close.
  • Due to the irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a minority acceptance rate of 16.6%. This threshold is achievable, as the offer is reasonable.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

By David Blennerhassett

  • Reportedly buyout firms are “vying for” Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP). The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.
  • Furukawa (5715 JP) has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.
  • While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, Melco International (200 HK)‘s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.

Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) – RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its Monetary Policy on 18 February. The current RBA rate stands at 4.35% with no change since 2024. 
  • The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. Options expiring on 20 February provide an instrument to trade this event. 
  • Option pricing is in-line with historical S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) moves on days after expected rate changes. Contrarians expecting no change might find value in put options.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Nickel Asia: Valuation Low On Cyclical Slump But Limited Catalysts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Nickel Asia: Valuation Low On Cyclical Slump But Limited Catalysts
  • Apple, Alibaba Join Forces to Bring AI to iPhones in China
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.16)-Update on CR Sanjiu’s Acquisition of Tasly, the Impact of US Tariff
  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Soft Guidance for 2025; Reduction of Investment Units


Nickel Asia: Valuation Low On Cyclical Slump But Limited Catalysts

By Graeme Cunningham

  • Nickel Asia is market leader for Philippines nickel ore and will remain a top player with decades of reserves leaving it well-positioned for the country’s move up the value chain  
  • However, short-term its share price has slumped on continued weakness in nickel, from a global oversupply and weakening demand, but also its removal from the PSEi 
  • While the 2025E P/B at 0.85x on a 6.4% ROE is likely near cyclical lows and the valuation is inexpensive for such a major player, there are few immediate catalysts 

Apple, Alibaba Join Forces to Bring AI to iPhones in China

By Caixin Global

  • Apple Inc. has teamed up with e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to develop artificial intelligence (AI) features for iPhones in China, sources familiar with the matter told Caixin.

  • The iPhone maker is intensifying its collaboration with Alibaba on AI large model technology, but it remains unclear whether Apple will work exclusively with a single company, according to three sources.

  • Apple and Alibaba haven’t replied to Caixin’s inquires.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.16)-Update on CR Sanjiu’s Acquisition of Tasly, the Impact of US Tariff

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In our view, China’s biotech companies have sold their core pipelines/products too early, resulting in the loss of opportunities to gain much greater benefits in the future.
  • We summarized the impact of tariff policy implemented by the US on China’s healthcare industry. Short-term headwinds are inevitable, but in long term, it helps force the industry to upgrade.
  • After Spring Festival, the acquisition progress of Tasly by CR Sanjiu has significantly accelerated – SASAC/SAMR approvals have been received. It’s possible for the deal to be completed in 25Q1.

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Soft Guidance for 2025; Reduction of Investment Units

By Tina Banerjee

  • For 2025, Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) is looking for 2% YoY revenue growth to ¥2,380B. However, net profit is expected to decline 20% YoY to ¥275B.
  • Even upon a massive impact from LoE of Jinarc/Jynarque, total revenue will grow in 2025. Excluding one-time of impact of the tax adjustments, 2025 net profit guidance implies 6% growth.
  • Otsuka intends to reduce buyback to create a more investable environment, encourage individual investors to participate in the market, and revitalize the stock market.

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Daily Brief Macro: Balance Sheet Recession in China’s Private Sector ? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Balance Sheet Recession in China’s Private Sector ?
  • Hunt for Yield in the Hang Seng Companies


Balance Sheet Recession in China’s Private Sector ?

By Alex Ng

  • Overall, we maintain the view that parts of China’s household sector are showing signs of a balance sheet recession, due to the buildup of debt in the past 20 years.
  • The non-financial corporate sector is more difficult to interpret, due to strength for SOE/high tech manufacturing and private sector confidence being less impacted than consumers.  
  • Fiscal policy is favored in this environment, as interest rate cuts alone risk being ineffective for sections of the household sector. 

Hunt for Yield in the Hang Seng Companies

By Alex Ng

  • As the US government has entered into a lower interest rate environment, it would be intuitive to hunt for yield in the hang seng companies.
  • The net interest margin should widen and the loan book of the banks  may be impacted by the fall of the local housing prices and secondary market transactions.
  • The housing supply of the new housing remains subdued but the yield returns seem attractive.

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Daily Brief Australia: S&P/ASX 200 and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) – RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?


Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) – RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its Monetary Policy on 18 February. The current RBA rate stands at 4.35% with no change since 2024. 
  • The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. Options expiring on 20 February provide an instrument to trade this event. 
  • Option pricing is in-line with historical S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) moves on days after expected rate changes. Contrarians expecting no change might find value in put options.

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  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung’s 10T KRW Buyback Phase 2: The Timing of the Drop and How the Structure Is Looking


Samsung’s 10T KRW Buyback Phase 2: The Timing of the Drop and How the Structure Is Looking

By Sanghyun Park

  • The 2nd phase of the buyback, around 3T KRW with a 3-month window, could drop this week, likely by mid- or end-week.
  • The market’s worried Samsung might not retire the shares this time and could handle them differently.
  • The latest talk is that Samsung will retire the shares immediately, like Phase 1. This could be an inflection point for solid short-term price action—time to set up positions.

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Daily Brief United States: Apple and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Apple, Alibaba Join Forces to Bring AI to iPhones in China


Apple, Alibaba Join Forces to Bring AI to iPhones in China

By Caixin Global

  • Apple Inc. has teamed up with e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to develop artificial intelligence (AI) features for iPhones in China, sources familiar with the matter told Caixin.

  • The iPhone maker is intensifying its collaboration with Alibaba on AI large model technology, but it remains unclear whether Apple will work exclusively with a single company, according to three sources.

  • Apple and Alibaba haven’t replied to Caixin’s inquires.


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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Great Wall Motor, China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharma and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid
  • CATL Launches Hong Kong Secondary Listing to Fund European Expansion
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Fall but Foreigners Buying Non-H/A Pair HK Stocks
  • CATL IPO (Hong Kong) Valuation Analysis
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.16)-Update on CR Sanjiu’s Acquisition of Tasly, the Impact of US Tariff
  • CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Feb 2025); HUGE Jump in Value Traded, Consumer Names Get a Bid

By Travis Lundy

  • There was a HUGE jump in value traded this week – HK$655bn vs ~$300bn for 5-days of trading the last several weeks.
  • Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was the big buy with net buying 7 of 8 days post-CNY and a huge end of week. Tencent was sold.
  • There appears to be a flight to Chinese equities by foreigners and SB are taking part with risk-on style trading. Watch Hang Seng rebal news this week!

CATL Launches Hong Kong Secondary Listing to Fund European Expansion

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) has launched its secondary listing in Hong Kong, aiming to raise funds primarily for the construction of its Hungary factory, according to its prospectus disclosed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Tuesday.
  • The move could become one of Hong Kong’s largest listings in recent years, with Bloomberg reporting a potential fundraising target exceeding $5 billion.
  • Shenzhen-listed CATL’s stock closed Tuesday at 251.8 yuan ($34.47), down 2.57% from the previous day, with a total market capitalization of 1.1 trillion yuan. The company’s valuation peaked at 1.6 trillion yuan in December 2021.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Fall but Foreigners Buying Non-H/A Pair HK Stocks

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia are lower again (new 5yr low) in the first full week after the CNY holiday. HK stocks up BIG vs A-shares. H/A discounts slightly narrower on average.
  • That tells you that the big winners in HK the past two weeks are those stocks without A-shares. This past week Healthcare sector pairs saw the best relative H-share performance.
  • Foreigners returning to HK markets but less to the H in H/A pairs. They are buying HK/China “foreign-investor beta” not China breadth. Feels spivvy, and short-term.

CATL IPO (Hong Kong) Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our valuation analysis suggests that CATL is undervalued. Our base case valuation suggests implied market cap of 1.5 trillion CNY, which represents 33% higher than current levels. 
  • Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a market cap valuation range of 1.2 trillion CNY to 1.8 trillion CNY. 
  • We estimate CATL to generate revenue of 431.7 billion RMB (up 16.8% YoY) and net profit of 61.4 billion RMB (up 10.5% YoY) in 2025. 

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.16)-Update on CR Sanjiu’s Acquisition of Tasly, the Impact of US Tariff

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In our view, China’s biotech companies have sold their core pipelines/products too early, resulting in the loss of opportunities to gain much greater benefits in the future.
  • We summarized the impact of tariff policy implemented by the US on China’s healthcare industry. Short-term headwinds are inevitable, but in long term, it helps force the industry to upgrade.
  • After Spring Festival, the acquisition progress of Tasly by CR Sanjiu has significantly accelerated – SASAC/SAMR approvals have been received. It’s possible for the deal to be completed in 25Q1.

CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world’s largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, has filed for an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.     
  • CATL’s global EV battery market share, measured in GWh, rose from 27.6% in 2019 to 36.8% in November 2024.
  • The investment case rests on a leading market position, forecasted return to growth, peer-leading profitability, cash generation, peer-leading FCF margin and an attractive valuation. 

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Daily Brief Japan: Japan Eyewear Holdings , Seven & I Holdings, Zenhoren , Trend Micro Inc, Otsuka Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Paragon REIT, Kaonavi, Arcadium Lithium, Sun Art Retail, HKBN, and Seven & I
  • Zenhoren (5845 JP): MUFG (8306 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle
  • Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Soft Guidance for 2025; Reduction of Investment Units
  • Companies Should Consider All Options, Not Just Maintaining Their Listing


Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday after the close, Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) made a short announcement that it would cancel its equity offering and TSE Prime application announced 10 Feb, discussed here.
  • I had suggested that the offering price, or a large dip would be a buy. I rescind that recommendation immediately.
  • The reason for the cancellation? “Matters that need to be confirmed in relation to our internal control system have been discovered and that will take time.”

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Paragon REIT, Kaonavi, Arcadium Lithium, Sun Art Retail, HKBN, and Seven & I

By David Blennerhassett


Zenhoren (5845 JP): MUFG (8306 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Zenhoren (5845 JP) announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP). MUFG aims to make Zenhoren a consolidated subsidiary.  
  • The offer is for a minimum of 11.7m shares (44.36% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 13.0m shares (49.55% ownership ratio) at JPY1,000, a 31.9% premium to the last close.
  • Due to the irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a minority acceptance rate of 16.6%. This threshold is achievable, as the offer is reasonable.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

By David Blennerhassett

  • Reportedly buyout firms are “vying for” Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP). The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.
  • Furukawa (5715 JP) has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.
  • While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, Melco International (200 HK)‘s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Soft Guidance for 2025; Reduction of Investment Units

By Tina Banerjee

  • For 2025, Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) is looking for 2% YoY revenue growth to ¥2,380B. However, net profit is expected to decline 20% YoY to ¥275B.
  • Even upon a massive impact from LoE of Jinarc/Jynarque, total revenue will grow in 2025. Excluding one-time of impact of the tax adjustments, 2025 net profit guidance implies 6% growth.
  • Otsuka intends to reduce buyback to create a more investable environment, encourage individual investors to participate in the market, and revitalize the stock market.

Companies Should Consider All Options, Not Just Maintaining Their Listing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Besides not showing concrete measures to increase corporate value, the feasibility of the plan and the valuation at that time are often not verified, so disclosures that don’t add up.
  • Listed subsidiaries and equity method affiliates account for 31.8% of all listed companies. The company is still in the process of restructuring its business portfolio.
  • The growth of each company’s corporate value and stock market capitalization will be determined by how quickly issues that have not been initiated so far are resolved.

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Most Read: Bestechnic Shanghai , Orica Ltd, A2 Milk Co Ltd, Eva Airways, Cambricon Technologies Lt, Delhivery , JX Advanced Metals, Japan Eyewear Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month
  • Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February
  • S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Eva Air (2618 TT) Winging Its Way In
  • China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March
  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: TPX Add in April; Global Idx: One in August; One in March or Sep
  • Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle’s Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations
  • Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF
  • Despite DeepSeek’s Innovation, Hyperscalers Doubling Down on Capex


China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
  • The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).
  • Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.

Australia: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 6 stocks in Australia that could be deleted from global passive portfolios later this month, though the probability of deletion varies across the stocks. 
  • If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between US$234m-330m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-23 days of ADV.
  • The potential deletions have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over nearly every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Shorts have increased on all stocks recently.

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
  • The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.
  • A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Eva Air (2618 TT) Winging Its Way In

By Brian Freitas


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March

By Brian Freitas


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: TPX Add in April; Global Idx: One in August; One in March or Sep

By Brian Freitas

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 19 March.
  • At the indicative IPO price of JPY 862/share, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) will be valued at JPY 800bn (US$5.25bn).
  • The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 28 April while timing of inclusion in global indices will depend on domestic/overseas allocations and price moves.

Japan Strategy Weekly | Carlyle’s Kaonavi Deal Signals a Shift in Japanese Valuations

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japan’s tech market sees major movement with Carlyle’s 120% premium bid for Kaonavi, highlighting the stark valuation gap between Japanese and US SaaS companies.
  • Many Japanese software firms trade at significantly lower multiples (4x) versus US peers (8x), attracting private equity attention.
  • Japanese stocks ended the week up around 1%. Global macro concerns and inflation lifting bond yields and raising concern over a stronger yen. 

Japan Eyewear Cancels Offering and TSE Prime Application on Internal Controls Problem – OFF

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday after the close, Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) made a short announcement that it would cancel its equity offering and TSE Prime application announced 10 Feb, discussed here.
  • I had suggested that the offering price, or a large dip would be a buy. I rescind that recommendation immediately.
  • The reason for the cancellation? “Matters that need to be confirmed in relation to our internal control system have been discovered and that will take time.”

Despite DeepSeek’s Innovation, Hyperscalers Doubling Down on Capex

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Despite DeepSeek (DPSK12 CH)’s breakthrough with minimal chips, hyperscalers remain undeterred, planning $315 billion in FY25 capex to expand AI and cloud infrastructure.
  • This sustained high capex underlines tech giants’ confidence in long-term AI growth, ensuring a competitive edge and reinforcing their market leadership.
  • Investors should see this aggressive capex commitment as a signal of robust future revenue potential, even amid disruptive cost-saving innovations.

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