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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation, SLB Development, Bund Center Investment, Hang Seng Index, Mizuho Leasing, Seoul Guarantee Insurance, SES AI Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • 3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)
  • NTT UD REIT (8956 JP): 3D’s Unsolicited Partial Tender Offer
  • SLB Dev (SLB SP): Ong Family Offer By Way Of A Scheme.
  • Bund Center Investment (BTE SP): A Dominant Real Estate Play on the Bund
  • EQD | Tactically Overbought HSI May Start Pulling Back After Lunar New Year
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Jan-2025): SC Capital buys Fukuoka Hilton from Mizuho for $420M
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Updated Thoughts on Valuation – Weaker Performance than Expected
  • SES AI Corp: Secures Commercial Deal for Li-Metal and Li- Ion Batteries for Drones with Data Blanket


3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)

By Travis Lundy

  • Seemingly out of the blue, Singapore-based activist investment fund 3D Investment Partners has launched a partial tender offer at a small premium on NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP)
  • 3DIP currently owns 2.2% and at maximum, will own 15.00% of the REIT units outstanding less treasury units. It intends to own the units for “pure investment purposes.”
  • “Shareholder” structure is different for J-REITs vs companies. And this J-REIT has an interesting future possibility. But…

NTT UD REIT (8956 JP): 3D’s Unsolicited Partial Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • 3D has announced an unsolicited partial tender offer for NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP) at JPY131,890 per unit, a 10.0% premium to the undisturbed price.  
  • The minimum number of units to be purchased is 115,279 (7.80% ownership ratio), and the maximum number of units to be purchased is 189,128 (12.80% ownership ratio).
  • The modest premium and an implied P/NAV <1x suggest a lightish offer. 3D will have to rethink terms as shares are trading through terms. 

SLB Dev (SLB SP): Ong Family Offer By Way Of A Scheme.

By David Blennerhassett


Bund Center Investment (BTE SP): A Dominant Real Estate Play on the Bund

By Kilde

  • Bund Center Investment (BCI) is a diversified investment vehicle with two commercial real estate assets: the landmark Westin Bund Center Hotel, and its premium office space, Bund Center Office Tower in Shanghai.
  • BCI operates under two business segments: Hotel Operations and Property Leasing.
  • Despite short-term hurdles, long-term economic growth in China provides a supportive backdrop.

EQD | Tactically Overbought HSI May Start Pulling Back After Lunar New Year

By Nico Rosti

  • In our previous, Jan 11th. insight, we said the HSI INDEX could find support between 18.8K and 17.5K, and rally, and so it did (the bottom was at 18671).
  • Since there the index has been rallying for 3 weeks, >8% returns so far.
  • This insight is focused on tactical strategy: the Hang Seng Index may be readying for a new pullback, starting next week, so we are going to look at resistance levels.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (28-Jan-2025): SC Capital buys Fukuoka Hilton from Mizuho for $420M

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • SC Capital purchased the Fukuoka Hilton in Japan from Mizuho Leasing for $420M in a significant Hotel REIT transaction.
  • GIC has divested its stake in a London office project to Modon, a move that indicates strategic restructuring for the company.
  • Despite a rise in revenue, CapitaLand Ascott Trust’s 2H 2024 payout decreased by 7%, reflecting potential challenges in the market.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Updated Thoughts on Valuation – Weaker Performance than Expected

By Clarence Chu

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$155m in its Korean IPO. 
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
  • In this note, we discuss its recent financials, and share our updated thoughts on valuation.

SES AI Corp: Secures Commercial Deal for Li-Metal and Li- Ion Batteries for Drones with Data Blanket

By Water Tower Research

  • SES AI inks its first commercial deal for its next- generation Li-Metal and Li-ion batteries with AI drone startup Data Blanket.
  • This is a significant event in SES AI’s history. With this deal, the company has demonstrated that its next-generation batteries, designed using its AI for Science battery materials discovery capabilities, can win commercial deals (and not just pilot projects or development projects) in the drone space.
  • Deal specifics are sparse, but we know that revenue recognition began in December and that the current deal should continue to generate revenue through mid-2025.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd, Hyphens Pharma International, Beta Bionics, GRAIL, S&P 500 INDEX, Henry Schein, Imunon , Lexaria Bioscience and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Hyphens Pharma (HYP SP): ASEAN’S Leading Specialty Pharma Company
  • Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX): Bullish IPO Roadshow Moves Underwriters to Amend Offering Size and Range
  • GRAIL: Significant Sales Growth of Galleri Test and The Increase in 2025 Revenue Guidance
  • S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness
  • Inside Henry Schein’s Game Plan: Will Anynam’s Shake-Up Deliver Results?
  • IMNN: Gearing Up to Initiate Phase 3 Ovarian Cancer Trial in 1Q25
  • LEXX: IRB Approval Clears Way for GLP-1 Study #5


Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) is looking to raise about US$350m in its India IPO. The deal is downsized from an earlier reported size of around US$480m.
  • Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
  • Previously, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.

Hyphens Pharma (HYP SP): ASEAN’S Leading Specialty Pharma Company

By Kilde

  • Hyphens Pharma (HYP SP EQUITY) is Singapore’s leading specialty pharmaceutical and consumer healthcare group, leveraging on its diverse footprints in ASEAN countries. Its core business lies in three segments: Specialty Pharma Principals, Proprietary Brands, and Medical Hypermart and Digital.
  • Based on its scalable business model, direct access to the five countries in the southeast Asia region enabling it to capture health expenditure growth in ASEAN countries, sustainable growth from both in-house product innovation and in-licensing cooperation, as well as realization of DocMed’s potential when rolling out the digital platform to other ASEAN markets, Hyphens Pharma will demonstrate sustainable growth momentum and optimistic investment value in the future.
  • Revenue in 2024 full year is expected to show a strong rebound compared to 2023.

Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX): Bullish IPO Roadshow Moves Underwriters to Amend Offering Size and Range

By IPO Boutique

  • The underwriters amended the terms of this offering with a S-1/A on Tuesday morning.
  • With the updated terms, the company could raise as much as $170 million at the high-end of the new range. 
  • We have updated our first day forecast given the bullish momentum during the roadshow. 

GRAIL: Significant Sales Growth of Galleri Test and The Increase in 2025 Revenue Guidance

By Andrei Zakharov

  • I expect GRAIL shares will appreciate over time as investors gain greater conviction in one of the most meaningful opportunities in healthcare.
  • A fast-growing maker of MCED screening tests reported ~46% sales growth of Galleri tests in 2024. Commercial Galleri sales surpassed 250K tests since launch.
  • At ~0.5x EV/2025E revenues, GRAIL shares trade at a significant discount to Guardant Health and Tempus AI. GRAIL shares appreciated ˃100% from October 4, 2024.

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

By Joe Jasper

  • DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.
  • The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.
  • Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.

Inside Henry Schein’s Game Plan: Will Anynam’s Shake-Up Deliver Results?

By Baptista Research

  • Henry Schein, a global leader in healthcare products and services, has faced significant scrutiny following the intervention of activist investor Anynam.
  • With demands for a new CEO, strategic cost cuts, and a refined approach to capital allocation, Anynam has raised concerns over Henry Schein’s performance and governance.
  • The activist’s recommendations include splitting the company’s dental and medical businesses, enhancing operational efficiencies, and reassessing leadership for improved shareholder returns.

IMNN: Gearing Up to Initiate Phase 3 Ovarian Cancer Trial in 1Q25

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Imunon, Inc. (IMNN) is finishing preparations to initiate a Phase 3 clinical trial of its lead development compound, IMNN-001, in the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer.
  • In support of this, the company recently announced a positive Type C Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls (CMC) meeting in which the agency agreed the company’s potency assay is acceptable for the Phase 3 trial and use in a commercial setting.
  • This follows the company’s prior announcement in which it had reached alignment with the FDA on its proposed plan for the Phase 3 trial, including the overall trial design, the target patient population, the treatment schedule, and the primary endpoint.

LEXX: IRB Approval Clears Way for GLP-1 Study #5

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Lexaria is a biotechnology company seeking to enhance the bioavailability of multiple drug agents using DehydraTECH (DHT), its technology using oral and topical delivery.
  • It combines lipophilic APIs with specific fatty acid and carrier compounds followed by dehydration.
  • DHT offers several attractive features: substantial improvement in bioabsorption in terms of time to measurable plasma levels & AUC, brain permeation, taste masking & side effect reduction.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Fast Retailing, Japfa Ltd, Dada Nexus , Smithfield Foods, Ather Energy, Tripadvisor Inc, United Breweries, Build A Bear Workshop, Sacks Parente Golf, Brighton Pier Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade
  • Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move
  • Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com’s US$2/ADS Non-Binding Offer
  • Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD): IPO Opens with Heavy Selling Pressure, Closes Below Issue
  • Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Positives – One of the E2W Pioneers
  • Why Tripadvisor Is A Magnet For Takeover Interest: Insights On Its Unmatched Appeal!
  • United Breweries On and Off with Telangana Government
  • BBW: Snapping the Store: Continuing to Win; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT
  • SPGC: Sacks Parente provides preliminary financial results
  • Brighton Pier Group Plc (PIER LN) – Sunday, Oct 27, 2024


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

By Brian Freitas


Japfa (JAP SP): The Santosa Family (Finally) Makes A Move

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in March of last year, Bloomberg reported,that Renaldo Santosa and his family, who collectively controlled ~75.5% of agri-play Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), were considering taking Japfa private.
  • This was discussed in Japfa (JAP SP): Impressive Gain. But No Firm Offer. Then crickets. 
  • The family has now pitched an Offer of S$0.62/share, by way of  a Scheme, a 34.8% premium to undisturbed. That’s probably enough to get this over the line. 

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.Com’s US$2/ADS Non-Binding Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 27th January, Dada Nexus (DADA US), a Chinese on-demand retail and delivery platform, announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from JD.com (9618 HK).
  • JD.com, a 63.2% shareholder, is offering US$0.50/share (US$2.00/ADS), a 42% premium to last close. Should a definitive agreement be inked, this is done. 
  • DADA has formed a committee to evaluate the proposal. The risk to the trade, as with many US-listed China plays, is one of timing. Trading at a 11.1% gross spread.

Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD): IPO Opens with Heavy Selling Pressure, Closes Below Issue

By IPO Boutique

  • The company  priced a downsized transaction of 26.08mm shares (down from 34.8mm) at $20.00 (original range $23-$27) and opened at $21.05 for a gain of 5.3% at first trade.
  • A broken IPO usually hurts the psyche of the IPO market in the short term.
  • The healthcare space will be looking to give IPOs a boost during the second half of the week with much stronger deals set to debut.

Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Positives – One of the E2W Pioneers

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ather Energy is looking to raise about US$536m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Why Tripadvisor Is A Magnet For Takeover Interest: Insights On Its Unmatched Appeal!

By Baptista Research

  • Tripadvisor has been a frequent subject of acquisition speculation, with the latest developments adding fuel to the fire.
  • Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings (OTCQB:LTRPA, LTRPB) recently disclosed a proposal from an undisclosed “Party 7” to acquire Tripadvisor and Liberty TripAdvisor.
  • The bid, initially offered at $17.50 per share in October 2024, was later revised to $18-$19 per share in January 2025, representing a 14-21% premium over the current stock price.

United Breweries On and Off with Telangana Government

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • United Breweries resumed beer supplies in Telangana after earlier suspending them due to unprofitable pricing and unpaid dues.
  • Resolution ensures vital revenues for both state and brewery, while highlighting persistent regulatory and pricing hurdles in India’s top beer market.
  • This standoff reveals the leverage breweries hold in regulated regions, where strategic halts can push authorities toward fairer policies and improved business conditions.

BBW: Snapping the Store: Continuing to Win; Reiterate Buy, $58 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $58 price target and projections for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island.
  • We believe momentum (and full price, gift card driven selling) remained strong post Xmas and that the company has successfully pivoted to the key Valentine’s Day holiday with compelling newness and product excitement, driven by new offerings and services.
  • As such, we view Build-A-Bear as a key Holiday winner and reiterate our Buy rating and $58 price target for BBW.

SPGC: Sacks Parente provides preliminary financial results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Sacks Parente Golf (NASDAQ: SPGC) is an innovative, technology driven golf company with a growing portfolio of golf products, including putters, golf shafts, golf grips, and other golf-related accessories.
  • The company went public in August 2023 raising $11.6 million in net proceeds.
  • The company announced its entry into the golf shaft market in November 2023.

Brighton Pier Group Plc (PIER LN) – Sunday, Oct 27, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • The Brighton Pier Group Plc operates through four divisions: Brighton Palace Pier, Paradise Island Adventure Golf, Eclectic Bars, and Lightwater Valley Adventure.
  • The Pier, established in the late 1800s, attracts over four million visitors annually and generates revenue through attractions, gaming machines, funfair rides, and food and beverage offerings.
  • The Pier historically contributes over 40% of group revenue and EBITDA, with all upkeep costs recorded as operating expenses.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Crude Oil: A Buying Opportunity Could Be Near and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Crude Oil: A Buying Opportunity Could Be Near


Crude Oil: A Buying Opportunity Could Be Near

By Nico Rosti

  • Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) has been pulling back last week, and this week started with another drop (in sync with falling US stocks).
  • The commodity may be reaching soon a a support area with a high probability of reversal. There are various conflicting forecasts for Oil, our forecast is only short-term.
  • Our Crude Oil model indicates the 74-70 support area as oversold, a reversal of the trend may begin from there, the trend could continue higher afterwards.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?
  • TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2025
  • EQD | DeepSeek’s New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100
  • Utilize the Killer Dataset Provided by KRX Through the Value-Up Index
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation
  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Expectations of a Deal Break with a Vote on 20 February
  • Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS
  • EQD| Lunar New Year: Do HSI, KOSPI, and FXI Follow a Pattern?
  • EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Looking for an Assist
  • Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF)


Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?

By Travis Lundy

  • Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
  • The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
  • The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.

TOPIX Index Upweights: An Early Preview Of “The Big April Basket” 2025

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.
  • For companies with “low liquidity” the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.
  • Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2025.

EQD | DeepSeek’s New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

By Nico Rosti

  • News that DeepSeek’s latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI’s ChatGPT in  most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today.
  • DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like Meta Platforms (META US) ), using lower cost chips and less data.
  • Tech companies like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let’s see where support for reversal rallies can be found.

Utilize the Killer Dataset Provided by KRX Through the Value-Up Index

By Sanghyun Park

  • The KRX is going all-in, using data transparency to clean up the Value-Up Index, rebuild trust, and keep it in the spotlight.
  • This sharpens predictability for June’s rebalancing, enhances market transparency, and attracts foreign investors to GICS-based indices like the KOSPI 200.
  • This could transform index dynamics, boosting inflows, liquidity, and global interest, creating a potential alpha opportunity.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

By John Ley

  • Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting > 10% weekly gains.
  • Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.
  • China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. 

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Expectations of a Deal Break with a Vote on 20 February

By Arun George

  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK)’s IFA opines that Mr Thomas Lau’s HK$0.98 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 20 February. 
  • The IFA analysis is flawed. The revised and final offer is light compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
  • The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk, mainly as retail seems firmly against the offer. The 14.0% gross spread is high but justified. 

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS

By Arun George

  • Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a non-binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
  • The offer is light compared to the IPO price (US$16.00), average sell-side price targets (US$2.19) and historical trading ranges. 
  • The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of the voting power. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal. 

EQD| Lunar New Year: Do HSI, KOSPI, and FXI Follow a Pattern?

By John Ley

  • All three markets exhibited larger average returns in the 5 days leading up to Lunar New Years compared to out-of-sample data.
  • The pattern for the period after Lunar New Year does not show the same characteristics as prior to Lunar New Year.
  • The strongest returns were seen in FXI with average returns 10X out-of-sample average returns.

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Looking for an Assist

By John Ley

  • Nikkei back at the top of the price range rising 3.85%. Gains may be more limited from here without an assist from the currency.
  • Implied vols softened on the week from a combination of factors includes low realized volatility on the week.
  • Active trade in Put and Call strikes at the edge of the recent trading range.

Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF)

By Richard Howe

  • Aptiv PLC (APTV), an automotive technology supplier, announced on January 22, 2025, that it plans to split into two distinct companies.
  • Aptiv will spin-off its electrical systems business.
  • The RemainCo will concentrate on technological components, including sensor-to-cloud solutions and autonomous driving software.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | DeepSeek Sinks AI Market and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | DeepSeek Sinks AI Market
  • Updated Thoughts on Some of My Biggest Positions In The Cheap Japanese Basket and Some New Positions
  • [Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee’s Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For
  • Japan Morning Connection: US Tech Meltdown Set to Hit Japan AI/Tech Names Again
  • HSTECH Index. Identifying Individual Names with Greater Potential Upside
  • Big Tech’s Deteriorating Earnings Quality
  • Singapore Market Roundup (27-Jan-2025): MPACT’s overseas assets weak in 3QFY2025.
  • Thematic Report : Betting on Indian’s Traffic Control Systems
  • China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) – An Increasingly Important Distinction
  • Biopharma Week in Review – January 27, 2025


Ohayo Japan | DeepSeek Sinks AI Market

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nasdaq tumbled over 3% on Monday, driven by a selloff in AI-related stocks after China’s DeepSeek claimed its AI assistant rivals leading models at lower costs
  • Nvidia (-17%) led the decline, shedding $589 billion in market value, while chipmakers like ARM (-10%) and Broadcom (-17%) also fell
  • FANUC raised its full-year ordinary profit forecast to ¥190 billion from ¥185 billion, marking its third consecutive upward revision this fiscal year.

Updated Thoughts on Some of My Biggest Positions In The Cheap Japanese Basket and Some New Positions

By Altay Capital

  • Dynam Japan is the largest operator of Pachinko halls in Japan.
  • The company has been profitable for the past15 years, though profits have been in decline.
  • Their halls are mostly located in suburban areas with less competition, but they do have some in big cities.

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee’s Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For

By Eric Wen

  • Employment picture worsened in December. We believe Chinese government will erect hiring-related corporate subsidy in 2025;
  • Early attempts at street drink overseas have failed. But new attempts from Luckin might well work, over time;
  • Tesla’s new Model Y received a raving reception from Chinese consumers. But we doubt it can last.

Japan Morning Connection: US Tech Meltdown Set to Hit Japan AI/Tech Names Again

By Andrew Jackson

  • Will we see more of the same ineffectual export curbs or a lightening of export restrictions?
  • Expect a continued rotation into all things non-tech in JP including Home Builders who jumped overnight as yields sank.
  • Plenty of shorts with ample downside including Hitachi, Fuji Elec, Hokkaido Elec outside of the mainstay AI plays.

HSTECH Index. Identifying Individual Names with Greater Potential Upside

By Rikki Malik

  • Following on from our last HK piece, we take a closer look at the tech sector
  • While the overall HSTECH index provides a good risk-reward, some
  • Individual E-commerce & software names offer much more upside than  downside

Big Tech’s Deteriorating Earnings Quality

By MBI Deep Dives

  • Almost one and half years ago, I wrote about “The Curious Case of Big Tech”, in which I highlighted that much of the big tech was actually “deep value” investments back in 2013.
  • In fact, I also mentioned “Meta, and Amazon are currently trading at lower OCF multiple than they were trading back in 2013”.
  • Both Meta and Amazon have comfortably outperformed both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 since then (not claiming any causal relationship, of course).

Singapore Market Roundup (27-Jan-2025): MPACT’s overseas assets weak in 3QFY2025.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • MPACT’s overseas assets underperformed in 3QFY2025 according to analysts, highlighting a weakness in that area of the business.
  • DBS has launched ETFs in US equities, AI, small caps, and gold, expecting them to perform well under Trump 2.0 presidency.
  • Both RHB and DBS remain optimistic about ESR REIT despite a decrease in DPU, indicating a bullish outlook on the real estate investment trust.

Thematic Report : Betting on Indian’s Traffic Control Systems

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The Indian train control system industry is on the cusp of remarkable growth, driven by a forecasted CAGR of 12.7% through CY30
  • His surge is propelled by the increasing adoption of advanced safety technologies like Kavach, coupled with the government’s strategic focus on modernizing railway infrastructure. 
  • High capital investments, technical barriers and infrastructure limitations are of the challengers sector is facing

China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) – An Increasingly Important Distinction

By Robert Ciemniak

  • Historically, the “housing market” in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role
  • But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary
  • Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the ‘primary vs secondary’ dynamics and its implications

Biopharma Week in Review – January 27, 2025

By Water Tower Research

  • Academia was troubled last week by Trump’s broad pause on external communications from federal health agencies, disrupting study sections (NIH), public health publications (CDC), and treatment guidelines (FDA).
  • The pause remains in effect until February 1, which happens to be after RFK Jr.’s confirmation hearings for HHS secretary on January 29 and 30.
  • In industry news, NVO saw some redemption with positive amycretin obesity data, with a positive read-through for ZLDPF

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Daily Brief Crypto: ZkVerify: Optimizing Zero Knowledge Proof Verification at Scale and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ZkVerify: Optimizing Zero Knowledge Proof Verification at Scale


ZkVerify: Optimizing Zero Knowledge Proof Verification at Scale

By Delphi Digital

  • We’re excited to share our deep dive on zkVerify as part of the inaugural cohort for Delphi x The Tie’s Institutional Accelerator.
  • This modular L1 blockchain is designed to become the universal verification layer for zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs).
  • Developed by Horizen Labs, zkVerify addresses critical challenges in ZKP implementation by optimizing verification efficiency, enabling proof verification at a fraction of the cost and expanding possibilities for scalable and interoperable applications.

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Daily Brief ECM: Doosan Enerbility: Thoughts on the IPO of Doosan Skoda Power and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Enerbility: Thoughts on the IPO of Doosan Skoda Power
  • Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price Sensitivity Emerges in Another IPO
  • Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO: Profitable Business Expansion Amid Favorable Demand to Drive Growth
  • Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Peeking at the Prospectus of Upcoming Space and Defense IPO
  • Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Biotech with Blockbuster Potential Sets Terms for IPO
  • Visen Pharmaceuticals IPO: Unfavorable Trends
  • Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO- Decent Long-Term Track Record, Although a Large Overhang to Watch For
  • Pre-IPO Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical – Valuation Performance May Disappoint Investors
  • Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Peeking at the Prospectus of Another Obesity-Related IPO
  • Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Company Seeking up to $1.8b IPO Valuation


Doosan Enerbility: Thoughts on the IPO of Doosan Skoda Power

By Douglas Kim

  • Doosan Skoda Power is getting ready to complete an IPO on the Prague Stock Exchange. The IPO is aiming to gather up to 2.53 billion crowns, or about US$105.5 million. 
  • Post IPO, Doosan Power System plans to maintain a 67% ownership. Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) owns a 100% stake in Doosan Power Systems.
  • If Doosan Skoda Power is valued at 8.3 billion crowns and if we annualize the company’s net profit to 473 billion in 2024, this would suggest a P/E of 17.5x. 

Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price Sensitivity Emerges in Another IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Sources have stated that the deal is experiencing “pushback” from the buy-side on the price. 
  • Fresh on the mind of IPO investors is the underperforming energy deal, Venture Global (VG)
  • Price sensitivity in the deal is a stark signal to exercise caution on this IPO at this time

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO: Profitable Business Expansion Amid Favorable Demand to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is looking to raise ~$350M from its upcoming India IPO, which is a combination of fresh issue and OFS. The IPO price band is INR382–402.
  • The company intends to utilize INR1.95B out of the fresh issue proceeds to repay its debts, which stand at INR3.61B as of December 31, 2024.
  • The company’s proven capability to scale up the operation amid cut-throat competition and profitable business operation enhance our conviction on the long-term growth prospect of the company.

Karman Holdings Inc.(KRMN): Peeking at the Prospectus of Upcoming Space and Defense IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Private Equity backed Karman Holdings filed a S-1 with the SEC for a potential February debut. 
  • For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, they generated $254.0 million in revenue, representing a 24.7% growth rate from the same period in 2023.
  • Their integrated payload protection, propulsion, and interstage system solutions are deployed across a wide variety of existing and emerging programs supporting important Department of Defense and space sector initiatives.

Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Biotech with Blockbuster Potential Sets Terms for IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • The company has a potential blockbuster treatment for a certain type of chronic kidney disease  affecting millions of Americans.
  • The company could raise up to $132.6m if priced at the high-end of the range which would value the company at $728m.
  • The sector vastly underperformed in the aftermarket and is looking to start 2025 on the right foot.

Visen Pharmaceuticals IPO: Unfavorable Trends

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Visen Pharmaceuticals is looking at raising up to USD 300m to list in Hong Kong.
  • We look at the company’s core product and highlight two unfavorable trends.
  • We are not excited about the company’s fundamentals, and are not keen in the deal.

Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO- Decent Long-Term Track Record, Although a Large Overhang to Watch For

By Clarence Chu

  • Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Pre-IPO Wuhan Dazhong Dental Medical – Valuation Performance May Disappoint Investors

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In other to attract and retain high-quality dentists, dental services providers need to pay higher salaries than public hospitals, which inevitably drives up manpower costs and drag down profit margin.
  • Regulatory pricing controls and centralized procurement policies on dental implants and orthodontic materials will affect the pricing of Dazhong’s dental services, thus put pressure on its future revenue growth.
  • The future valuation performance largely depends on if Dazhong is able to expand out of Central China and achieve nationwide coverage. However, so far, no successful cases have emerged.

Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD): Peeking at the Prospectus of Another Obesity-Related IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Biotech targeting treatment of obesity and obesity-related conditions, starting with rare hyperphagias filed for its IPO on January 23rd.
  • Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Cantor, RBC Capital are the bookrunners on this IPO.
  • Lead product, ARD-101 is an oral gut-restricted small-molecule agonist of certain TAS2Rs expressed in the gut lumen for which they have initiated a Phase 3 clinical trial for hyperphagia.

Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Company Seeking up to $1.8b IPO Valuation

By IPO Boutique

  • Metsera, Inc. is developing next-generation injectable and oral NuSH analog peptides for obesity treatment.
  • ARCH Venture Partners, Google Ventures and Softbank’s Vision Fund are all existing investors in this IPO.
  • The company is seeking an IPO valuation nearing $2bn for the company with a Phase III product candidate.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In the US, the S&P preliminary services PMI fell to 52.8 (56.5 e / 56.8 p), while the manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.1 (49.8 e / 49.4 p).
  • The preliminary composite PMI declined to 52.4 (55.6 e / 55.4 p). Separately, the January (final) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index decreased to 71.1 (74.0 p).
  • Treasuries climbed slightly, following the weaker than expected January preliminary PMI data. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix
  • India Food Delivery | Old Habits Die Easy
  • China Consumption Weekly (27 Jan 2025): Alibaba, JD.com, Kuaishou, NIO, Honor, Apple
  • Fanuc (6594) | Robots in Reverse
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Cosco Capital
  • Macrotech Developers : Decoding Family Feud and Corporate Governance Overhang
  • How Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) Is Betting Big on AI & Winning The Global Chip Race!
  • Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) – Aiming to Be Japan’s No.1 Cloud Integrator
  • Fastenal Company: Expanding Onsite & Branch Sales Strategy To Up Their Game! – Major Drivers
  • Duplicate of CSX Corporation: A Hurricane-Hit Performance But Fundamentals Remain Strong! – Major Drivers


DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

By Nicolas Baratte

  • This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs
  • This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services
  • We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  

India Food Delivery | Old Habits Die Easy

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Gen Z consumers prioritize price over brand loyalty, affecting restaurateurs’ pricing strategies.
  • Increasing platform dominance and discounting culture hinder profitability for restaurants in the competitive food delivery landscape.
  • Food delivery companies are pivoting from mere consumer tech-enabled logistics businesses to data-driven market-dominant behemoths. 

China Consumption Weekly (27 Jan 2025): Alibaba, JD.com, Kuaishou, NIO, Honor, Apple

By Ming Lu

  • Consumers accused that Alibaba and JD.com took national consumption subsidies.
  • Kuaishou’s new year sales GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) increased by 71%.
  • Honor Smartphone CEO resigned largely due to the IPO plan.

Fanuc (6594) | Robots in Reverse

By Mark Chadwick

  • Consolidated net sales slipped 0.4% to ¥197 billion, while operating income slipped 14.6%, hitting ¥34.9 billion
  • The yen’s Q3 weakness erased ¥11 billion in unrealised inventory profits, dragging reported operating profit below expectations
  • Recovery in order book is key positive. However, given the stock’s outperformance over the past 3 months, there is less upside. 

Asian Dividend Gems: Cosco Capital

By Douglas Kim

  • Cosco Holdings’ stakes in Puregold Price Club and The Keepers Holding is worth US$1.1 billion, which is 176% higher than Cosco’s current market cap.
  • Cosco Capital’s dividend yield and dividend payout have been increasing nicely in the past several years from 1.5% in 2021 to 3% in 2022 and 8.8% in 2023.
  • We found Cosco Capital using Smartkarma’s Smartscore Screener. We used three criteria including market cap, dividend score of 4 or more, and total SmartScore of 4 or more.

Macrotech Developers : Decoding Family Feud and Corporate Governance Overhang

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The Lodha brothers, Abhishek and Abhinandan, are locked in a legal battle over the use of the “Lodha” brand, despite a 2017 family settlement agreement.
  • Macrotech Developer is seeking a perpetual injunction against HoABL to cease the use of the “Lodha” brand in any form and is demanding INR5,000 crore in damages. 
  • The Bombay High Court on January 21 said that it would hear on January 27 the application filed by Abhishek Lodha-promoted Macrotech Developers Ltd 

How Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) Is Betting Big on AI & Winning The Global Chip Race!

By Baptista Research

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) closed 2024 on a high note, driven by robust demand for AI-related chips and its cutting-edge 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technology nodes.
  • The world’s largest contract chipmaker reported a record fourth-quarter net profit of NT$374.68 billion (US$11.37 billion), marking a 57% year-over-year increase, alongside a 39% revenue jump to NT$868.46 billion.
  • The company’s gross margin rose to 59%, supported by high demand for advanced nodes despite challenges like ramp-up costs for its overseas facilities in the U.S. and Japan.

Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) – Aiming to Be Japan’s No.1 Cloud Integrator

By Sessa Investment Research

  • In the Company’s stated goal aiming to become the No.1 cloud integrator in Japan, the importance of its close relationship with Microsoft cannot be overstated.
  • JBS became certified as a Microsoft Partner in 1995, and it was awarded Microsoft Japan Partner of the Year for the first time in 2007.
  • JBS has been recognized as Microsoft Japan Partner of the Year for 12 consecutive years from 2013 – 2024, reflecting its business strategy to focus on cloud migration/integration during that period. 

Fastenal Company: Expanding Onsite & Branch Sales Strategy To Up Their Game! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fastenal Company recently held its 2024 annual and fourth-quarter earnings call, providing insights into its financial and operational performance.
  • The company reported a modest fourth-quarter sales growth of 3.7% (2.1% on a daily sales rate), indicating a stabilization in sales amidst a challenging industrial economy.
  • Although sales grew slightly, the company did not meet its own expectations, with earnings per share (EPS) decreasing by 2% to $0.46.

Duplicate of CSX Corporation: A Hurricane-Hit Performance But Fundamentals Remain Strong! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The CSX Corporation’s earnings reveal a complex landscape influenced by numerous external factors, while also showcasing internal resilience and growth initiatives.
  • For the fiscal year 2024, CSX faced a multitude of challenges, including adverse weather events like hurricanes, weaker commodity prices, and infrastructure disruptions, notably the collapse of the Francis Scott Bridge.
  • These external pressures led to fluctuations in financial performance, especially in specific segments like coal and intermodal transportation.

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