All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Tencent, Japan Business Systems , Texas Instruments, Allfunds Group, Hexaware Technologies, Startia Holdings, ParkerVision and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | DeepSeek’s New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100
  • DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation
  • How Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) Is Betting Big on AI & Winning The Global Chip Race!
  • Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) – Aiming to Be Japan’s No.1 Cloud Integrator
  • Texas Instruments: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
  • Allfunds Group (ALLFG) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024
  • Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO- Decent Long-Term Track Record, Although a Large Overhang to Watch For
  • Startia Holdings (3393 JP) – Cheerleading Company for the Digital Shift of SMEs in Japan
  • Parkervision Inc (PRKR) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024


EQD | DeepSeek’s New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

By Nico Rosti

  • News that DeepSeek’s latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI’s ChatGPT in  most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today.
  • DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like Meta Platforms (META US) ), using lower cost chips and less data.
  • Tech companies like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let’s see where support for reversal rallies can be found.

DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

By Nicolas Baratte

  • This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs
  • This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services
  • We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (January 20 – 24): Rally Continues on Less Participation

By John Ley

  • Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting > 10% weekly gains.
  • Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.
  • China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. 

How Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) Is Betting Big on AI & Winning The Global Chip Race!

By Baptista Research

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) closed 2024 on a high note, driven by robust demand for AI-related chips and its cutting-edge 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technology nodes.
  • The world’s largest contract chipmaker reported a record fourth-quarter net profit of NT$374.68 billion (US$11.37 billion), marking a 57% year-over-year increase, alongside a 39% revenue jump to NT$868.46 billion.
  • The company’s gross margin rose to 59%, supported by high demand for advanced nodes despite challenges like ramp-up costs for its overseas facilities in the U.S. and Japan.

Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) – Aiming to Be Japan’s No.1 Cloud Integrator

By Sessa Investment Research

  • In the Company’s stated goal aiming to become the No.1 cloud integrator in Japan, the importance of its close relationship with Microsoft cannot be overstated.
  • JBS became certified as a Microsoft Partner in 1995, and it was awarded Microsoft Japan Partner of the Year for the first time in 2007.
  • JBS has been recognized as Microsoft Japan Partner of the Year for 12 consecutive years from 2013 – 2024, reflecting its business strategy to focus on cloud migration/integration during that period. 

Texas Instruments: The 7 Most Significant Forces Steering Its Performance into 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Texas Instruments recently presented their fourth-quarter earnings, offering insights into the performance and outlook of the company.
  • The financial results indicate both challenges and opportunities for investors to consider.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2024, Texas Instruments reported revenue of $4 billion, which marks a 3% sequential decrease and a 2% decline from the previous year.

Allfunds Group (ALLFG) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Allfunds is a European B2B fund platform founded in 2000 by CEO Juan Alcaraz, with strong organic revenue growth and EBITDA margins
  • Despite facing challenges in the public markets, the company is poised to return to its historical growth trajectory
  • With a client retention rate of 99.8% and significant market share, ALLFG offers a compelling growth opportunity yet to be fully reflected in its valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Hexaware Technologies Pre-IPO- Decent Long-Term Track Record, Although a Large Overhang to Watch For

By Clarence Chu

  • Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Startia Holdings (3393 JP) – Cheerleading Company for the Digital Shift of SMEs in Japan

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Startia Holdings, Inc. (hereafter, the Company) is a corporate group providing IT solutions mainly to SMEs.
  • Its core businesses consist of its IT infrastructure segment and its digital marketing segment which provides the Cloud CIRCUS digital marketing tool as a SaaS offering.
  • The IT infrastructure segment promotes “defensive DX” providing one-stop solutions and DX to IT-related issues for customer companies through merchandises such as office automation equipment and network services, while the digital marketing segment promotes “offensive DX” with the aim of helping them acquire new customers and expand sales. By conducting

Parkervision Inc (PRKR) – Monday, Oct 28, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • ParkerVision (PRKR) is seen as a potentially mispriced option with a significant investment opportunity
  • The company’s patent infringement case against Qualcomm (QCOM) could result in a value of $8+ per share, which is 9 times the current price of $0.90
  • The case, estimated to be worth $2.6 billion, is expected to go to trial in the first half of 2025, with favorable odds for a positive outcome justifying a small position in PRKR

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Consumer: Fast Retailing, Lifestyle China, Zomato, Alibaba Group Holding , Dada Nexus , Cosco Capital, Smithfield Foods, Aptiv PLC, WH Group, BCL Industries and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?
  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Expectations of a Deal Break with a Vote on 20 February
  • India Food Delivery | Old Habits Die Easy
  • China Consumption Weekly (27 Jan 2025): Alibaba, JD.com, Kuaishou, NIO, Honor, Apple
  • Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Cosco Capital
  • Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price Sensitivity Emerges in Another IPO
  • Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF)
  • WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction
  • The Beat Ideas: BCL Industries, An Ethanol Play


Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?

By Travis Lundy

  • Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
  • The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
  • The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Expectations of a Deal Break with a Vote on 20 February

By Arun George

  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK)’s IFA opines that Mr Thomas Lau’s HK$0.98 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 20 February. 
  • The IFA analysis is flawed. The revised and final offer is light compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
  • The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk, mainly as retail seems firmly against the offer. The 14.0% gross spread is high but justified. 

India Food Delivery | Old Habits Die Easy

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Gen Z consumers prioritize price over brand loyalty, affecting restaurateurs’ pricing strategies.
  • Increasing platform dominance and discounting culture hinder profitability for restaurants in the competitive food delivery landscape.
  • Food delivery companies are pivoting from mere consumer tech-enabled logistics businesses to data-driven market-dominant behemoths. 

China Consumption Weekly (27 Jan 2025): Alibaba, JD.com, Kuaishou, NIO, Honor, Apple

By Ming Lu

  • Consumers accused that Alibaba and JD.com took national consumption subsidies.
  • Kuaishou’s new year sales GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) increased by 71%.
  • Honor Smartphone CEO resigned largely due to the IPO plan.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$2 Per ADS

By Arun George

  • Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a non-binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
  • The offer is light compared to the IPO price (US$16.00), average sell-side price targets (US$2.19) and historical trading ranges. 
  • The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of the voting power. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal. 

Asian Dividend Gems: Cosco Capital

By Douglas Kim

  • Cosco Holdings’ stakes in Puregold Price Club and The Keepers Holding is worth US$1.1 billion, which is 176% higher than Cosco’s current market cap.
  • Cosco Capital’s dividend yield and dividend payout have been increasing nicely in the past several years from 1.5% in 2021 to 3% in 2022 and 8.8% in 2023.
  • We found Cosco Capital using Smartkarma’s Smartscore Screener. We used three criteria including market cap, dividend score of 4 or more, and total SmartScore of 4 or more.

Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price Sensitivity Emerges in Another IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Sources have stated that the deal is experiencing “pushback” from the buy-side on the price. 
  • Fresh on the mind of IPO investors is the underperforming energy deal, Venture Global (VG)
  • Price sensitivity in the deal is a stark signal to exercise caution on this IPO at this time

Weekly Update (APTV, MRP, MEDXF)

By Richard Howe

  • Aptiv PLC (APTV), an automotive technology supplier, announced on January 22, 2025, that it plans to split into two distinct companies.
  • Aptiv will spin-off its electrical systems business.
  • The RemainCo will concentrate on technological components, including sensor-to-cloud solutions and autonomous driving software.

WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 21st January 2025, WH Group (288 HK), the world’s largest pork producer, announced Smithfield had made a public filing of the “Preliminary Prospectus” with the SEC.
  • A US$23-US$27/share indicative price range backed out a possible market cap for Smithfield of US$9.0bn-US$10.6bn, at the high end of my estimate, and more than twice its 2013 privatisation value. 
  • Reportedly,  WHG are now guiding that Smithfield is likely to be priced at $20/share. Expect WHG to sell off here.

The Beat Ideas: BCL Industries, An Ethanol Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • BCL Industries (BCLIL IN) is pivoting from volatile edible oils to a robust grain-based ethanol portfolio, leveraging its local sourcing advantage for upcoming capacity expansions.
  • Government incentives and rising domestic demand are fueling higher margins, making BCL’s dedicated distilleries and fungible capacities key drivers in India’s booming ethanol sector.
  • Its reliable execution, targeted capacity expansions, and pivot away from low-margin oils emphasize BCL’s potential as a high-growth, stable margin player in a rapidly evolving industry.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 24th): PTT Global Chemical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 24th): PTT Global Chemical, WHA, CP AXTRA NVDR
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 24th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 24th): TSMC, UMC


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jan 24th): PTT Global Chemical, WHA, CP AXTRA NVDR

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jan 24th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in PTT Global Chemical, WHA, CP AXTRA NVDR.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 24th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jan 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD491.9bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD743mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jan 24th): TSMC, UMC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,058.3bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD573mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC (2330 TT), UMC (2303 TT).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ESG: Is Slower Management Decision Making of Japanese Companies Relate to Slower Growth of Market Cap? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Slower Management Decision Making of Japanese Companies Relate to Slower Growth of Market Cap?


Is Slower Management Decision Making of Japanese Companies Relate to Slower Growth of Market Cap?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Declining components from MSCI indexes will lead to less inflows from active as well as passive funds, and less transmission from the sell-side to global investors.
  • Based on the assumption that the world’s top companies have grown in response to changes in the environment, Japanese companies may be relatively slow in making management decisions for growth.
  • As benchmark adopters reduce their investments in Japanese equities, investors adopting investment strategies that are less concerned with benchmarks will have a greater presence than ever before.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Fed Week and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Fed Week
  • Japan Activist Briefs | Furukawa, Oji
  • Japan Morning Connection: JP Tech Set for a Soggy Start to the Week Despite Big META Capex Plans
  • [Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 4/52]: Deepseek’s Asked the Right Question on GAI Capex


Ohayo Japan | Fed Week

By Mark Chadwick

  • The technology sector was a major drag, with Big Tech stocks such as Nvidia (-3.1%) and Texas Instruments (-7.5%) leading the decline.
  • Meta plans to invest $60-65 billion in expansion this year, a significant increase from its initial $38-40 billion forecast
  • FUJIFILM Holdings will invest over 100 billion yen by March 2027 to expand its semiconductor materials business

Japan Activist Briefs | Furukawa, Oji

By Mark Chadwick

  • Oasis have turned up on the register of Topcon with a 7.3% stake. Topcon are exploring way to enhance corporate value…ie a bidding war for private equity sale
  • City Index have taken a significant stake in Furukawa Machinery – the company will be under pressure to allocate capital more effectively
  • City Index have also gone large in Oji Holdings. The company is already doing sensible things to improve its valuation, but there is more to be done. 

Japan Morning Connection: JP Tech Set for a Soggy Start to the Week Despite Big META Capex Plans

By Andrew Jackson

  • Power/Analog names set for a weak start after the negative read-through from Texas Industries numbers Friday.
  • Disco numbers looks overly conservative and a good chace to revisit with ‘Stargate’ gains erased after Fridays drop.
  • Sapporo Holdings quelling concerns its main activist investor was divesting should be enough to see this rebound.

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 4/52]: Deepseek’s Asked the Right Question on GAI Capex

By Ying Pan

  • New smartphone trade-in subsidy received raving response from Chinese consumers;
  • Tencent and NetEase gained key game title approvals. Entertainment is a good choice in uncertain environment of 2025;
  • From a slight moderating C4Q24, we expect strong showing in domestic travel demand heading into CNY.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee
  • SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025


ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee

By Sumeet Singh


SailPoint IPO Preview: A Well-Established Provider of Identity Management, First SaaS US IPO In 2025

By Andrei Zakharov

  • SailPoint, a pioneer and leader in identity industry with the best identity governance product, filed to go public in January.
  • Thoma Bravo-backed technology company has a best-in-class product within a large market opportunity. They secure large enterprises and grow at scale.  
  • SailPoint has completed its first IPO in 2017 and raised =$160M. Then, the company was reacquired by Thoma Bravo and now they plan to reportedly go public.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush
  • Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.
  • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher
  • Singamas (716 HK): Further Positive Indications from CIMC Profit Alert
  • China National Building Material (3323 HK): Publication of Buyback Offer Document
  • Nidec (6594 JP): Growth Prospects Improving
  • Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099.HK) – Performance May Continue to Miss Expectations


Unloved Japan Roundup: Don’t Panic Ahead of Q3 Results Rush

By Michael Allen

  • More than 40 potential turnaround stocks will report Q3 results in the coming weeks. 
  • The average spread between the lowest and highest street estimate for the stocks on our target list is a gaping 45%. This doesn’t mean what most people think it means.
  • Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Yamato, Hamamatsu, JFE, Tsuruha look nice, but we pass on Shiseido and Mazda.

Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.
  • Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.
  • Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Strong Finisher

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Central Asia booked a solid finish to 2024, with strong loan growth across the board driven by  corporate and SMEs leading, whilst its CASA continued to grow, protecting NIMs.
  • The bank continue to cement its position as Indonesia’s leading transactional bank with +21% growth in 2024 to a record 36bn transactions, with its mobile banking leading the way. 
  • BCA continues to grow channels inclusing  branches and ATMS to supplement its mobile banking growth. Loan growth may slow slightly this year but BCA stands out from peers on funding.

Singamas (716 HK): Further Positive Indications from CIMC Profit Alert

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China International Marine Cntnrs Gp (2039 HK)‘s positive profit alert suggested a very solid performance for Singamas Container Holdings (716 HK) in 4Q24. 
  • Annualising Singamas’ 1H24 earnings for the full year will mean a 78% profit surge in 2H24, but this is still conservative – CIMC’s 2H24 profit leaped 93x YoY.
  • Trading on 6x PER, versus CIMC’s 10.3x, the stock is cheap. Net cash equals 86% of market capitalisation, potentially providing a yield higher than the 8.8% currently projected.

China National Building Material (3323 HK): Publication of Buyback Offer Document

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China National Building Material (3323 HK) published the H-share offer document and if everything is smooth, the payment will be made on 14 Mar 2025. 
  • Its two subsidiaries forecast poor profit/losses for FY24, suggesting a tough operating environment. The buyback valuation remains attractive relative to peer multiples.
  • For non-holders, at the current price of HK$3.59, we do not think the safety margin is good enough, assuming that most existing shareholders will accept and tender.

Nidec (6594 JP): Growth Prospects Improving

By Scott Foster

  • Outlook improving with rising demand for energy storage systems and near-line HDDs and water cooling modules for AI servers.
  • 3Q results point to FY sales above and profits in line with management’s guidance. Proceeding toward acquisition of Makino Milling next fiscal year.
  • At 17.5x projected earnings and 10x cash flow, the shares are at the bottom of their 10-year valuation range. Buy for the medium- to long term.

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099.HK) – Performance May Continue to Miss Expectations

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Due to disappointing performance in 24Q1-Q3, both revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 could face negative growth, but 2025 is expected to have positive growth.
  • As pharmaceutical distribution business can just maintain stable but medical device distribution business and retail pharmacies cannot contribute high growth, the overall performance of Sinopharm has lost growth momentum.
  • Due to longer payment cycles from hospitals and its business characteristics, Sinopharm is facing significant demands for working capital. Insufficient cash flow makes it difficult to increase the dividend rate.  

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner
  • Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming
  • China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February
  • Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) – Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB
  • PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON
  • SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer
  • CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An “Avoid” Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote
  • Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications
  • It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings
  • Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off


Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner

By Brian Freitas


Weekly Deals Digest (26 Jan) – Seven & I, Shinko, Canvest, GAPack, Get Nice, Japfa, LG CNS, Guming

By Arun George


China National Building Material (3323 HK): H Share Buyback Vote on 19 February

By Arun George

  • The IFA opines that the China National Building Material (3323 HK) share buyback, which will acquire a maximum of 841.7 million H Shares at HK$4.03, is fair and reasonable.
  • The share buyback seems designed to enable the CNBM parent company to bypass the creeper rule and squeeze the shorts. 
  • The fortuitous material derating of peers has helped make the buyback attractive. Therefore, the votes should pass, and the minimum acceptance condition should be met. 

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Jan) – Fosun Tourism, Get Nice, Lifestyle China, Canvest, Japfa, SLB

By Arun George


PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON

By Brian Freitas


SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • SLB Development (SLB SP) disclosed a scheme privatisation from Lian Beng (LBG SP) at S$0.23 per share, a 36.1% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.169 (22 January).
  • The Ong family previously privatised Lian Beng, the parent company. The offer price, which is equal to the IPO price, is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
  • The scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and the offer is attractive. Expect a scheme meeting in April.  

CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An “Avoid” Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
  • The thrust of the buyback lifts the stake of CNBM’s parent – the CNBM Parent Concert Group – to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating a whitewash waiver.
  • Pre-Cons were satisfied on the 24th Jan. The independent H-class shareholders vote for the waiver is on the 19th Feb. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. Implied back-end price is well down. 

Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • IREDA has announced a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of a maximum of INR 50bn as long as the Government of India’s holding does not drop by more than 7%.
  • There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the QIP shares while the increase in float will bring the stock closer to inclusion in another global index.
  • With the stock close to index inclusion level and down 37% from its peak, there could be positioning in the stock for passive inflows.

It’s AAPL A BUY? Oversold Models Indicate So, Ahead of Quarterly Earnings

By Nico Rosti

  • Apple (AAPL US) has been downtrending for the past 4 weeks, reaching deeply oversold levels on both our TIME and PRICE quantitative models. Our models are flashing a BUY signal.
  • On January 30th Apple (AAPL US) will release its quarterly earnings: despite the stock’s current underperformance, most analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s future.
  • Recently, US President’s Trump announced that Apple was planning a “massive investment” in the U.S. This was part of Trump’s initiative to accelerate major corporate investments in the country.

Q&A with CompoSecure About Imminent Spin-Off

By Richard Howe

  • I had a chance to speak to CompoSecure investor relations last week about its imminent spin-off (full notes below) of Resolute Holdings.
  • The biggest takeaways are: 1) Resolute Holdings’ only M&A consulting client will be CompoSecure (I had initially thought it could/would focus on other clients).
  • 2) The ultimate goal for Resolute is to be a high margin alternative asset manager. 3) Resolute is a taxable spin-off and so CMPO will not be “hyping” the spin-off given CMPO will have to pay taxes based on Resolute’s initiation valuation. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Macro: Global Credit Outlook Gets More Complex Due to Recent US Developments and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Credit Outlook Gets More Complex Due to Recent US Developments
  • Two Key Risks to the Bull That No One Is Talking About
  • Tips on Navigating the Post-Inauguration Rally
  • Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025


Global Credit Outlook Gets More Complex Due to Recent US Developments

By Said Desaque

  • Credit cycles and financial conditions could vary significantly by sector and region during 2025.  Hawkish Fed policy and European political uncertainty complicate the credit outlooks for the US and Europe. 
  • Emerging market growth and credit outlooks could be impacted by US protectionism and more hawkish Fed policy conduct.  Corporate and household credit trends are very mixed by individual markets.  
  • Upbeat US  corporate sentiment since the election suggests greater appetite for leverage. Returning fiscal rules within the European Union could be the biggest driver of credit trends in the region.     

Two Key Risks to the Bull That No One Is Talking About

By Cam Hui

  • Nascent signs of a major market top are appearing even as the S&P 500 tests its all-time high.
  • A growing negative breadth divergence and a potential growth shock of mass deportations could sideswipe stock prices.
  • The scenario of a major market top in Q1 or Q2 2025 is building. The caveat is these are very early signs of risk.

Tips on Navigating the Post-Inauguration Rally

By Cam Hui

  • The S&P 500 is short-term overbought after breaking out to an all-time high and needs time to digest its gains.
  • We expect this will resolve in a period of sideways consolidation or shallow pullback, though Q4 earnings season and the FOMC and ECB rate decisions could induce volatility.
  • However, we have substantial concerns over growing signs of negative breadth divergences, which could be signals of a cycle top in either Q1 or Q2.

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Updates: Good Set Up For 2025

By Sameer Taneja

  • This is a follow-up to our initiation on Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner, in which we provide some positive updates. 
  • The company guided a full-year copper production of 660-700k for FY25 (in line with expectations) and slightly higher gross YoY costs at the upper end (but better than street expectations).
  • The long-term production plan of 900,000 tons by 2027 puts it under 5x EV-EBITDA for FY27 at spot prices (vs. the current 7.8x).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: SLB Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer


SLB Development (SLB SP): Ong Family’s S$0.23 Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • SLB Development (SLB SP) disclosed a scheme privatisation from Lian Beng (LBG SP) at S$0.23 per share, a 36.1% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.169 (22 January).
  • The Ong family previously privatised Lian Beng, the parent company. The offer price, which is equal to the IPO price, is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
  • The scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and the offer is attractive. Expect a scheme meeting in April.  

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars